Okwenziwa ubuchwepheshe benuzi Iran unayo?
I-Iran inomjikelezo ocishe uphelele kaphethiloli wenuzi - ingqalasizinda yokuphatha yonke inqubo kusukela ekumbeni i-uranium emhlabathini iye ekukhiqizeni amandla ngayo. Lokho kuhlanganisa izimayini ze-uranium kanye nezitshalo zokucubungula ukuze kucwengwe insimbi ibe yikhekhe eliphuzi. E-Isfahan inendawo yokuguqula i-uranium eguqula ikhekhe eliphuzi libe yi-uranium hexafluoride, igesi engathuthukiswa ngokusetshenziswa kwama-centrifuges. Inama-centrifuges angaba ngu-16,000 esitshalweni esikhulu sokucebisa e-Natanz kanye nendawo engaphansi komhlaba e-Fordow, futhi akhiqiza kokubili i-uranium enothile kancane (LEU) kanye ne-uranium eno-20%. I-uranium ecebile iyiswa embonini eyenza uphethiloli e-Isfahan ukuze iguqulwe ibe amapellets e-oxide, afakwa kumashubhu ensimbi ukuze enze izinsimbi zikaphethiloli.
I-Iran inama-reactor amabili: a amandla enuzi isiteshi eBushehr ogwini lweGulf esakhiwe ngosizo lwaseRussia futhi sisebenzisa ama-fuel rods ahlinzekwe ngesiRashiya; kanye ne-reactor yocwaningo e-Tehran esebenzisa uphethiloli we-uranium ocebile u-20% futhi ekhiqiza ama-isotopes okusetshenziswa kwezokwelapha, ezolimo nokunye kwesayensi. I-Iran yakhe isitshalo sokwenza amanzi asindayo (i-deuterium oxide) e-Arak futhi yakha isiphehlisi lapho esingasebenzisa uphethiloli we-uranium wemvelo emanzini asindayo ukuze iphenduleke.
Ayinayo imboni yokucubungula kabusha, isixhumanisi sokugcina kumjikelezo kaphethiloli, esingakhipha i-plutonium kuphethiloli osetshenzisiwe kureactor ye-Arak. Lokho kubalulekile njengoba i-plutonium iyiphethiloli esebenzayo yokwenza i-warhead.
Ngabe isivumelwano saseGeneva sikukhawulela kanjani?
Lesi sivumelwano sizomisa i-Iran ukuthi yenze noma iyiphi i-uranium inothiswe ibe ngaphezulu kuka-5% ubumsulwa. Inganciphisa inqwaba yayo elinganiselwa ku-200kg ye-uranium ecebile engu-20%, okukhathazayo ukwanda ngokushesha, noma iyiguqule ibe yi-oxide okunzima ukuyibuyisela kugesi we-hexafluoride, yona engabuye ithuthukiswe ukwenza uphethiloli wezinga lezikhali. I-Iran ithembisa ukungasakhi isitshalo sokuguqula kabusha i-uranium oxide ibuyele ku-uranium hexafluoride.
Ngeke futhi ivunyelwe ukuthi ikhulise isitokwe sayo se-uranium ecetshiswe ngo-3.5%, ngakho-ke noma iyiphi ekhiqizwa phakathi nezinyanga eziyisithupha zesivumelwano sesikhashana kuyodingeka ihlanganiswe phansi noma iguqulwe ibe yi-oxide.
I-Iran kuzodingeka futhi imise amandla ayo okucebisa. Ngeke kuvunyelwe ukufaka noma yimaphi ama-centrifuge amasha futhi izokwazi ukusebenzisa kuphela cishe angu-8,000 asetshenziselwa ukucebisa okwamanje. Ezinye ezingu-8,000 ezifakiwe kodwa ezingaphakelwa i-uranium hexafluoride kuzofanele "zishiywe zingasebenzi".
Umsebenzi omkhulu wokuthuthukiswa kwe-reactor yamanzi esindayo yase-Arak uzomiswa izinyanga eziyisithupha. Awekho uphethiloli obengafakwa kwi-reactor futhi ibingavulwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, awasekho ama-fuel rods angenziwa kureactor futhi azikho izingxenye ezinkulu zereactor ezingethulwa.
Kuyini ukubaluleka kwamazinga okunothisa?
Iphesenti lokucebisa libhekisela ekugxilweni kwe-isotope ye-fissile U235 ku-uranium. I-uranium ecebile ephansi (LEU) ichazwa ngokuthi ingaphansi kuka-5%. Ecetshiswe kakhulu (i-HEU) noma i-plutonium yezinga lezikhali ithathwa njengenothisiwe ngaphezu kuka-90%. Ngenxa yezici zobuchwepheshe zokunothisa i-centrifuge, ukukhiqizwa kwe-uranium engu-20%-enothisiwe kubhekwa njengengxenye yesishiyagalolunye-yeshumi endleleni eya e-HEU ngokobunzima.
Ingabe isivumelwano siyalibona ilungelo le-Iran lokunothisa?
Lokhu kubangwa kakhulu. I-US ithi ayikwenzi lokho. Kodwa umbhalo uyasikisela ukuthi ukuqedwa okuphelele okuzokwenziwa ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezizayo kuzobandakanya okungenani ukwamukelwa. Ithi: "Lesi sixazululo esibanzi sizobandakanya uhlelo lokucebisa oluchazwe ngokulinganayo olunemikhawulo esebenzayo kanye nezinyathelo ezibonisa izinto obala ukuze kuqinisekiswe isimo esinokuthula salolu hlelo." IWashington igcizelele inkulumo ethi "echazwe ngokulinganayo", iphakamisa ukuthi i-Iran izodinga imvume okuxoxiswene ngayo.
Kungani i-Iran yakhela imboni yokucebisa ngaphansi komhlaba?
Isitshalo esiqoshwe edwaleni ngaphansi kwentaba e-Fordow satholwa yizobunhloli basentshonalanga ngo-2009. I-Iran yabika ukuba khona kwaso ku-International Atomic Energy I-Ejensi ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ngaphambi kokuthi u-Barack Obama akudalule emhlanganweni omkhulu we-UN ngoSepthemba walowo nyaka. Izifundazwe zaseNtshonalanga zithi uFordow ukhombise isifiso se-Iran sokukopela nokuthuthukisa uhlelo lomshoshaphansi lwezikhali. I-Iran ithe idinga indawo evikelekile ngenxa yezinsongo ezivela entshonalanga kanye ne-Israel yokuqhumisa uhlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran. Uhulumeni wase-Irani uthe kudingeke ukuthi umemezele ubukhona bawo ku-IAEA izinyanga eziyisithupha ngaphambi kokuthi uhlose ukufaka izinto ezikhipha imisebe kuyo. Kodwa-ke, i-IAEA iphikisa ukuthi umthetho omdala. Ithi i-Iran kufanele yazise i-ejensi yezindawo ezintsha zenuzi ngokushesha nje lapho seziklanywe.
Ngabe i-Iran isengathuthukisa ibhomu lenuzi ngaphansi kwalezi zimo?
Kungaba nzima ukwakha ibhomu ngasese, ikakhulukazi ngoba isivumelwano sihilela ukuhlola okukhethekile okukhethekile, okuhlanganisa ukuvakashela nsuku zonke ezimbonini zokucebisa e-Natanz nase-Fordow, kanye nokuhlolwa okokuqala ngqa kwemihlangano yokusebenzela yama-centrifuge nezindawo zokukhiqiza ama-rotor. Lokho kuhlola kubaluleke kakhulu njengoba ochwepheshe be-IAEA bezokwazi ukubheka ukuthi akhona yini ama-centrifuge engeziwe abenzelwe isitshalo esingadalulwanga. Ngenxa yokuthi umjikelezo wamafutha enuzi uhlolwa yi-IAEA ngaso sonke isikhathi, noma yiliphi ikhekhe eliphuzi noma i-uranium hexafluoride ephambukiselwe ohlelweni olufanayo izoqashelwa. Ukuze babalekele ukutholwa, ama-Irani kuzodingeka akhe wonke umjikelezo wamafutha ofihliwe - okungaba nzima kakhulu. Amathuba okubanjwa kanye nezijeziso ezihilelekile zingaba maningi.
Enye indlela yokwenza ibhomu kungaba "ukugqashuka" - ukujaha ukwakha i-warhead ngaphambi kokuba abahloli bathole futhi baphakamise i-alamu. Kepha ngokususa isitokwe esingama-20% futhi sinciphise inani lama-centrifuges, lesi sivumelwano sizophinda kabili isikhathi sokuqalwa kwe-Iran esingasidinga. Kungathatha cishe izinyanga ezintathu ukwenza i-HEU eyanele yekhanda lempi, kodwa kwakuzothatha okungaphezu kwalokho ukuguqula leyo HEU ibe yinsimbi ye-uranium futhi iyilolonge ibe umgogodla ophelele wekhanda lempi bese uhlanganisa isikhali, ingasaphathwa eyokusivivinya. I-Iran cishe yayizobanjwa ngaphambi kokuba yenze isikhali esisodwa.
Kungenzeka yini manje?
Isimo esibi kakhulu: Isivumelwano siwohloka ngokushesha nje lapho kubhekene nama-hardliners eWashington naseTehran. Ivoti likakhongolose manje lokuthola unswinyo olwengeziwe, ngokwesibonelo, lizoliqeda nya. I-Iranian Conservatives izobona isenzo esifana ne-American perfidy futhi kuzokwenza kube nzima kakhulu ukuvala esinye isivumelwano. Ama-Conservatives ase-Irani kungenzeka ukuthi asheshise intuthuko yenuzi yase-Iran, asondeze ukungqubuzana.
Isimo esingcono kakhulu: Isivumelwano sesikhashana sikhona futhi ukuxazululwa okuphelele kuxoxiswana ngesikhathi, okubeke ukuphumula kwenkinga yenuzi yase-Iran unomphela. Ukususwa ngokushesha unswinyo kuholela ekukhuleni komnotho e-Iran, kuqinisa abalingani. Ukuphela kokuzihlukanisa kuzoqinisa abakhululekile futhi kwenza buthaka ukubamba kwabefundisi nabezempi.
Isimo esingaba khona kakhulu: Isivumelwano sesikhashana sizoqhubeka noma kancane naphezu kwezingxabano, kodwa izingxoxo mayelana nesivumelwano esibanzi zilawulwa ukungezwani nokubambezeleka, okudinga ukunwetshwa ezinyathelweni zokumisa igebe kanye nokuwohloka kokwethembana. Impumelelo izodinga okunye ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu komzamo kanye nenhloko-dolobha yezombusazwe kusuka komongameli ababuthakathaka, futhi izoba yizithunjwa zentuthuko kwenye indawo, njengeSyria.
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Nikela