Muva nje ubufakazi ngaphambi kweKomidi leSenate Armed Services, osopolitiki abane base-US banikeze ukuphawula okucacile ngokubandakanyeka kwakamuva kwe-US eMpumalanga Ephakathi, beveza izimfihlo ezimbalwa eziqashwe kakhulu ze-diplomacy yase-US.
Lezi zikhulu ezine zangaphambili zigcizelele ukubaluleka kukawoyela wesifunda, zakhuluma ngokugxeka ngobuthakathaka beqhinga lase-US, benza izinkulumo eziningi ezingcolile mayelana nabalingani base-US, babonisa ukukhathazeka okuncane mayelana nodlame oluqhubekayo, futhi bafuna "ukuqondiswa kwezigwegwe" okwengeziwe esifundeni sonke.
Omunye wamadiplomate angaphambili, UJames Jeffrey, ugxeke abaphathi baka-Obama ngokuhoxisa amasosha ase-US e-Iraq ngo-2011 kunokuba benze isivumelwano esiyimfihlo sokugcina inethiwekhi eyimfihlo yezisekelo zamasosha ezweni. Ngisho nanamuhla, uJeffrey uthe, izikhulu eWashington akumele "zincibilike phansi" futhi zidilize lapho amasosha ase-US ebulawa. Izikhulu kumele zamukele ukuthi kungahlala kukhona "ama-Benghazi amasha kanye namaNiger amasha," esho, ekhuluma ngezigameko lapho kubulawe khona ama-agent ase-US.
Osomaqhinga abane baphinde bagxeka abalingani base-US esifundeni. Bagxeka abaningi ababambisene nabo abasondelene kakhulu nokubusa okungekuhle, ukuntuleka kwentando yeningi, kanye nokungakwazi ukuxhumanisa izinjongo zamasu okwabelwana ngazo.
UJeffrey ugxeke kakhulu, ekhokhisa abaholi bamaKurd e-Iraqi Kurdistan ngokwenza isifunda sabo sibe โelinye icala likabhasikidiโ eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Uphinde wakhononda ngokuthi izikhulu zaseMelika kumele zibhekane โnokuluma okuningiโ okuvela kuhulumeni waseTurkey ngenxa yokwesekwa kwe-US kwamasosha amaKurd abhekene ne-Islamic State (ISIS noma IS) eSyria.
Ngaphezu kukaJeffrey, owake waphatha izikhundla eziphezulu kuhulumeni kaGeorge W. Bush, iqembu lalabo ababekade beyinxusa lalihlanganisa URyan Crocker, U-Eric Edelman, Futhi StuartJones. UCrocker ube yinxusa laseMelika emazweni ayisithupha ahlukene eMiddle East. U-Edelman noJones, bobabili abake baba osomaqhinga eMiddle East, babambe izikhundla eziphezulu ezikhundleni eziningi zokuphatha.
Emashumini ambalwa eminyaka adlule, wonke amadoda amane adlale indima ebalulekile ekwakheni nasekusebenziseni izinqubomgomo zase-U.S. esifundeni. โBabeyimidondoshiyaโ โeyayihamba emhlabeni,โ ngokusho kuka-Edelman.
Ngokuhlangene, laba ababekade beyinxusa bacele abaphathi bakaTrump ukuthi babambe iqhaza elinamandla eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Nakuba bavuma kakhulu ukuthi i-IS iye yaba buthaka kakhulu eminyakeni emibili nengxenye yokugcina, isusa inselele enkulu emandleni ase-US, babona izinselele eziqhubekayo ezivela e-Iran naseRussia kanye nezinkinga ezikhulayo phakathi kwe-US kanye nabalingani bayo. Babefuna ukuqinisekisa ukuthi i-United States ihlala isesimweni esihle sokushaya ucingo esifundeni futhi igcine uhlelo oluholwa yi-U.S. lokuhleleka kwesifunda.
"Ukucaca ezinhlelweni nezinjongo zase-US futhi ikakhulukazi impumelelo ngokumelene ne-Iran kuzosiza ukuhlanganisa abambisene nabo, kodwa i-US kumele iqondise uhlelo futhi ibheke abalingani njalo," kusho uJeffrey.
Izinkathazo Strategic
Ezinye zezambulo ezimangazayo zithinta isizathu esiyisisekelo sokuthi kungani izikhulu zaseMelika zihlala zigxile eMiddle East. Yize izikhulu zaseMelika zivame ukugcizelela izinkinga zobushokobezi nezokuphepha, idlanzana lalabo ababekade beyinxusa liveze ukuthi okukhathaza kakhulu bekulokhu kunguwoyela wesifunda, indawo kanye nokusebenza emnothweni womhlaba.
Owayengusomaqhinga u-Eric Edelman wenze isitatimende esicace kakhulu ngalolu daba, echaza esitatimendeni sakhe esilungisiwe ukuthi izibalo ze-geostrategic zibe yizici ezibalulekile kunqubomgomo yase-U.S. kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yezwe II. โI-U.S. abenzi benqubomgomo bacabangele ukufinyelela ezinsizeni zamandla zesifunda ezibalulekile kubalingani base-US eYurophu, futhi ekugcineni nase-United States uqobo, โkubhala yena. "Ngaphezu kwalokho, indawo ekahle yesifunda - exhumanisa iYurophu ne-Asia - ikwenze kwabaluleka kakhulu ngokombono wezwe."
U-Edelman uqhubeke nokuphakamisa ukuthi izenzo ze-U.S. esifundeni bezilokhu zisekelwe kulezi zici ze-geostrategic. Ubalule iCarter Doctrine of 1980, ekhomba iPersian Gulf njengesifunda esibaluleke kakhulu ezithakazelweni zase-US kangangokuthi i-US izongenelela ngezempi esifundeni ukuze ixoshe amabutho angaphandle. Uphinde wacaphuna iMpi yokuqala yaseGulf ngokumelene ne-Iraq, lapho i-US yezempi yangenelela khona ukuxosha amabutho ase-Iraq eKuwait.
"Izici ze-geostrategic kanye nezomnotho ezenza iMpumalanga Ephakathi ibaluleke kangaka ekuvikelekeni kwezwe lethu esikhathini esidlule zinamandla nanamuhla," kusho u-Edelman. Ngisho nokwanda kwakamuva kokukhiqizwa kwamandla e-U.S. ngenxa yenguquko eqhubekayo, โukuphazamiseka kwangempela noma okungase kube khona ekugelezeni kukawoyela noma kuphi kungaba nemiphumela emibi kakhulu emnothweni wethu.โ
Ngokuphawula kwakhe, u-Edelman ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi izikhulu zaseMelika zisaqhubeka nokuqhakambisa iMiddle East ngowoyela wayo. Lesi sifunda "siqukethe ingxenye yemithombo kawoyela efakazelwe emhlabeni wonke, ehlanganisa ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yokukhiqizwa kukawoyela kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, futhi iyikhaya lezindawo ezintathu kwezine ezinkulu kakhulu zokuthuthwa kukawoyela emhlabeni," echaza.
Ngesikhathi u-Edelman eveza la maphuzu ngesikhathi sokuqulwa kwecala, akekho owaphikisana naye. Ozakwabo noma amalungu ekomiti abazange baphikise imibono yakhe ngokuthi kungani lesi sifunda sibaluleke kangaka. Izinkulumo zakhe bezithathwa njengezingenampikiswano kangangoba azizange zifike engxoxweni.
Esikhundleni salokho, izikhulu zamanje nezangaphambili zagxila engxoxweni yazo kulokho ababecabanga ukuthi kwakuyizinselele ezinkulu ekufinyeleleni kwe-U.S. Okubakhathaza kakhulu ukuthi iRussia ne-Iran bezisebenzisana ukuphonsela inselelo uhlelo oluholwa yi-U.S. lokuhleleka kwesifunda ngethemba lokudala olunye uhlelo.
"Eqinisweni, iRussia ne-Iran bafuna ukuhlehlisa ithonya laseMelika ngisho nangaphezulu esifundeni, futhi ngamunye uncike komunye ukuthi akusize ukwenza lokho," kuxwayisa u-Edelman esitatimendeni sakhe esilungisiwe.
Ngesikhathi sokulalelwa kwecala, uJeffrey waveza iphuzu elifanayo, ethi "iRussia ne-Iran futhi, ngokwezinga elithile, iSyria ifuna ukushintsha ukuhlangana kweMpumalanga Ephakathi." I-US kanye nabalingani bayo, uqhubekile, kumele balondoloze uhlelo olukhona futhi "ekupheleni kosuku kufanele sibuyele emuva."
Ngalezi zindlela, osomaqhinga bangaphambili banikeze ukuqonda okuphawulekayo ngezizathu eziyisisekelo zezenzo zase-US eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Baveze ukuthi inqubomgomo eyisisekelo yase-US kwakuwukugcina uhlelo oluholwa yi-U.S. lokuhleleka kwesifunda ukuze uhulumeni wase-U.S. abe nomthelela ekutheni zonke izingxenye zomhlaba zithole kanjani ukufinyelela kuwoyela wakulesi sifunda.
Ukungqubuzana
Kuso sonke isikhathi sokuqulwa kwecala, labo ababekade beyinxusa lamazwe amane baphinde bagxeka amasu ase-U.S. Babenomuzwa wokuthi abaphathi babo eWashington kanye nabalingani babo abaningi kuso sonke isifunda baqhubeka bethatha izinyathelo ezazidala izinkinga eziningi endaweni.
UJeffrey wayegxeka kakhulu ukuphathwa kuka-Obama, ayekusola ngokwehluleka kwesibili iGulf War ngokumelene ne-Iraq. UJeffrey, owayeyinxusa lika-Obama e-Iraq ngesikhathi amasosha aseMelika ehoxa kuleliya lizwe ngo-2011, uthe kufanele ngabe abaphathi balamukele uhlelo oluyimfihlo lokugcina amasosha ase-US ezweni. UJeffrey uchaze ukuthi izikhulu zokuphatha zihlele uhlelo oluyimfihlo noNdunankulu wase-Iraq uNouri al-Maliki "ukukopela, ngokuvuma kukaMaliki," esivumelwaneni sokugcina sokuhoxisa amasosha aseMelika ezweni. "Besine-Black SOF, White SOF," esho, ebonakala ekhuluma ngezinhlobo ezahlukene ze-Special Operations Forces. "Besinama-drones, besinazo zonke izinhlobo zezinto," engeza.
UJeffrey ubemanqikanqika ukunikeza imininingwane eyengeziwe, kodwa wagcizelela ukuthi lolu hlelo oluyimfihlo belungasebenza ukube abaphathi bakhe kuhulumeni ka-Obama bebezamile. Akazange azwakalise ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuthi izilinganiso 100,000 abantu base bevele bafa empini.
"Kwakuyiphakethe elikhulu kakhulu, elihlanganisa uhlelo lwe-FMS lwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-14," kusho uJeffrey, ebhekisela ohlelweni lokuthengisa amasosha. "Besinezisekelo ezweni lonke ezaziyizisekelo ezifihliwe ezazisetshenziswa amasosha aseMelika."
Nakuba abanye ababekade beyinxusa kuphaneli bavuma kakhulu ukuthi abaphathi baka-Obama kwakungamele bahoxise amasosha ase-US e-Iraq ngo-2011, babeqiniseka ukuthi abalingani base-US babenecala elikhulu ngodlame oluqhubekayo endaweni. Labo ababengamanxusa basola abaningi babalingani babo abasondelene kakhulu nabasebenzisana nabo ngokwenza izinto ezidala izinkinga.
Ngezinye izikhathi, โbazokwenza izinto ngendlela esicabanga ukuthi yenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu kunokuba zibe ngcono,โ kusho u-Edelman.
UJeffrey uvumelane nozakwabo, wathi kumane kuyintengo yokusebenza eMiddle East. Ukuze siqhubeke singena kulesi sifunda, wachaza, โkufanele sithembele emazweni amahlanuโi-Israel, iSaudi Arabia, iTurkey, iPakistan ne-Egypt.โ Ngamunye uthe ufike nezinkinga ezinkulu, zonke ezenza kube nzima ukusebenza kule ndawo. โBesingeke sikhethe laba abangabambisene nabo ukube besiqhamuka ne-Middle East ehlukile, kodwa kufanele sibhekane ne-Middle East esinayo,โ kusho yena.
UJeffrey wayegxeka kakhulu iTurkey, umfelandawonye we-NATO. Wathi โizinto abazenzayo zinobuthi.โ
Kusukela umzamo we-putsch ngokumelene nohulumeni waseTurkey ngoJulayi 2016, abaholi baseTurkey baye benza kanjalo umsolwa uhulumeni wase-U.S. Njengengxenye yokulandela kukahulumeni ukuphahlazeka kwabamelene nayo ezindlini, balinganiselwa ku-150,000 abantu baseTurkey abaxoshiwe emisebenzini yabo, abangu-60,000 baboshiwe, izinhlangano zomphakathi eziyi-1,500 zihlakaziwe, kanti nemithombo yezindaba engaphezu kuka-100 yavalwa.
Ukuqhekeka kwenzeka phakathi nesikhathi sokungezwani okukhulayo phakathi kohulumeni wase-US kanye nohulumeni waseTurkey. Umehluko mayelana nendlela yokubhekana nempi yaseSyria kanye nobudlelwano neRussia kwengeze ukungezwani ebudlelwaneni.
"Akujabulisi, kuyathengiselana, kubi," kusho uJeffrey.
U-Edelman, owayekholelwa ukuthi i-U.S. โibe necala elincane lapha ngokuwohloka kobudlelwano,โ usafuna indlela eqinile. "Angicabangi ukuthi singakubekezelela okunye ukuziphatha okukhombisa abalingani bethu baseTurkey," esho.
URyan Crocker ukhumbuze amalungu ekomiti ukuthi i-United States isathembele eTurkey ukugcina ukufinyelela esifundeni. Uthe kuzomele kuqhubeke ukusebenzisana nobuholi bezwe obunengcindezi, yize beziphatha kabi.
"Bangabalingani be-NATO esifundeni lapho singenakho ukukhetha phakathi kwentando yeningi nokuzimela," kusho uCrocker. "Lokho akukho etafuleni."
UJeffrey unikeze okunye okuphawuleka kakhulu ngalesi simo lapho evuma ukuthi uhulumeni waseTurkey uqhubekile nokubekezelela ukwesekwa kwe-US kuma-Kurdish fighters ayelwa ne-IS eSiriya. Ama-Kurdish fighters, echaza, ayeyihlumela le-Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), iqembu bobabili ohulumeni base-US kanye nohulumeni waseTurkey abalithatha njengenhlangano yamaphekula.
"AbaseTurkey basivumela ukuthi sisekele i-PKK offshoot Kurds eSiriya nsuku zonke-ngokungabaza, ngokuluma okuningi, kodwa bayakwenza," kusho uJeffrey.
Isinqumo saseMelika sokusekela ama-Kurdish fighters sidale enye impikiswano ngenxa yezifiso zamaKurd zokudala izwe labo. Ohulumeni bamazwe anabantu abaningi abangamaKurd, okuhlanganisa i-Iran, i-Iraq, iSyria, neTurkey, bonke bawuphikisa lo mbono.
Lapho amaKurds ase-Iraq ahlala endaweni ezimele ye-Iraqi Kurdistan uvotelwe ngo-September odlule ukuze bahlole ukuthi kungenzeka yini inkululeko, babhekana nokuhlehla okuphawulekayo. Emasontweni ambalwa ngemuva kwevoti, uhulumeni wase-Iraq Ithunyelwe amabutho ayo angena esifundeni, ebuyisela indawo enothile ngowoyela yaseKirkuk ngenkathi enza buthaka umnyakazo wenkululeko.
Osopolitiki bakudala bakhombisa ukweseka kwabo ukusebenza kwezempi kukahulumeni wase-Iraq, naphezu kokuthi amaKurds ase-Iraq ayedlala indima enkulu empini emelene ne-IS.
UJeffrey waphikisa ngokuthi i-Iraq kumele ibambene ngenxa yamandla ayo okukhiqiza uwoyela omningi. Uthe i-Iraq ingagcina ingene โesigabeni saseSaudi Arabia,โ okusho ukuthi ingaba ngumdlali omkhulu emakethe kawoyela yomhlaba. "Leli yicilongo elibaluleke kakhulu, uma sikhuluma, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, futhi asifuni ukuvele siliphule," esho.
UJeffrey wayegxeka kakhulu amaKurds ase-Iraqi ngokuphishekela inkululeko, ethi "bahambe ezinyangeni ezintathu besuka kwenye yezindaba ezinhle kakhulu esifundeni baya kwelinye icala likabhasikidi."
Uma beqhubeka nokuwela "imigqa ebomvu," kusho uRyan Crocker, "cishe ngeke sibe khona ukuze sibasekele lapho isimo siba nzima."
"Kuyafana, ngokudabukisayo, nemiphakathi yamaKrestu," kusho uCrocker, ebhekisa kumaKristu ase-Iraq ayebhekene nezinselele zawo.
Ngalezi zindlela labo ababengamanxusa bakubeka kwacaca ukuthi bazimisele ngokunganaki usizi lwabalingani babo namanye amaqembu ancishwe amathuba uma bengazitholi izizathu zamaqhinga okubaseka. Izinselelo ezibhekene namaKurds namaKrestu, baveze ukuthi bekuyizinto ezincane uma kuqhathaniswa nezici zamasu ezidlalwayo.
Uma kuhlanganiswe, ukuphawula kwabo kubonise ukuthi izibalo ze-geostrategic zihlala zibalulekile. Kungenzeka ukuthi abane ababekade beyinxusa babengabathandi bonke ozakwabo, kodwa bonke bakholelwa ukuthi kufanele bakwamukele lokhu kuhwebelana uma bezofeza izinhlelo zabo zesifunda.
"Ngeke sibhekane sodwa, siklwebhana ngenxa yalezi zono zesibili lapho ukona kwangempela esifundeni kwenziwa amaphekula amaSulumane kanye ne-Iran," kusho uJeffrey. "Ngakho-ke kufanele sibambe kangcono abalingani bethu."
I-Outlook Yokugcina
Naphezu kwesimo sezwe esiyinkimbinkimbi, labo ababekade beyinxusa basavuma ukuthi i-United States yalondoloza ithonya elikhulu kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Bavumelana kakhulu ngokuthi i-United States yahlala inamandla esifundeni ingenayo imbangi efanayo.
Esitatimendeni sakhe esilungisiwe, u-Edelman uvumile ukuthi amandla asolwandle ase-US nawomoya ePersian Gulf "adlula nawase-Iran."
UJeffrey wavuma, echaza ukuthi i-US igcine โimpahla ebalulekileโ kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. "Izifundazwe eziningi esifundeni zingabalingani bethu bezokuphepha, abanobukhulu obujwayelekile obujwayelekile, kanye ne-CENTCOM, phezu kwe-Iran, ngisho nokusekelwa kweRussia," kuchaza uJeffrey.
I-CENTCOM, isho ukuthi i-U.S. Central Command, isingatha okuthi 80,000 Amasosha ase-U.S. ezisekelweni eziningi nasezindaweni ezingasogwini kuso sonke isifunda. Eminyakeni emibili nengxenye edlule, i-CENTCOM ibeke amandla ayo obala empini emelene ne-IS. Kusukela ngo-August 2014, amabutho omfelandawonye asebenze cishe 25,000 Ukuhlasela kwezindiza e-Iraq naseSyria. Kusukela ngo-April 2017, base bebulele abaningi 70,000 I-ISIS fighters, ngokusho kwezilinganiso zabo siqu.
Njengengxenye yomkhankaso, amabutho ase-US athole indawo entsha enkulu eSyria. "Sinempahla eningi eSyria nakuba ingabukeki kanjalo," kusho uJeffrey. "Thina namaTurkey phakathi kwethu sibambe cishe ingxenye yesithathu yezwe futhi sinabalingani abaningi bendawo."
Amasosha ase-US aphinde asungula kabusha amasosha anamandla e-Iraq, manje asekelwe ngaphezu kwalokho 5,000 Amasosha ase-U.S ezweni.
Njengamanje, zonke izimpawu zibonisa ukuthi i-United States ikhulisa ukubamba kwayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi.
Inkinga kuphela, ngokusho kwalabo bangaphambili, ukuthi i-United States iyaqhubeka nokubhekana nokuphikiswa okuphawulekayo. Yize i-U.S. yakhe uhlobo lombuso waseMelika ongakahleleki, bakholelwa ukuthi izenzo nezinqubomgomo zase-U.S. zidala i-blowback eletha ukungqubuzana nodlame olwengeziwe esifundeni.
"Noma yini esiyenzayo ukuqukatha i-Iran, ukuhlehlisa, izoletha ubungozi obukhulu kithi nakubantu bakulesi sifunda," kusho uJeffrey. Lezi kwakuyizifundo zomlando, echaza, ecaphuna โizinxushunxushu esizidale ngamabomuโ ukuze sibhekane nezinselelo ezedlule e-Afghanistan, Iraq nase-Iran.
Ukuqhubekela phambili, uJeffrey ukholelwa ukuthi kungaba ngcono ukwenza lokho akubiza ngokuthi โumnotho wamandla, ukusebenza kwezinyawo ezilula nabalingani bethu.โ Uphakamise ukuthi lezi zinhlobo zokuhlinza zizosebenza kangcono, noma ngabe ziholela kolunye udlame.
"Lokho kuzokhiqiza ama-Benghazi amasha kanye namaNiger amasha," kusho uJeffrey. Kodwa โkufanele sikwazi ukuqhubekela phambili singancibiliki uma lezi zinto zenzeka ngoba lena indlela efanele yokubhekana nazo.โ
Ngempela, uJeffrey waphikelela ngokuthi kwakuyodingeka kwamukele ukufa nobudlova obengeziwe uma i-United States izofeza izinhloso zayo zamasu. Lolu hlobo lokuhwebelana, ukholelwa ukuthi, yindlela izinto ezisebenza ngayo endaweni. Ecaphuna izenzo zakamuva zokuziphindiselela ezenziwa nguhulumeni wakwa-Israel kanye nowaseSaudi ngokumelene nokuhlaselwa kwemicibisholo, uJeffrey uthe amanani aphezulu okufa kwabantu okubangelwe yimisebenzi enjalo asephenduke enye yezindleko zokubandakanyeka kwamasosha esifundeni.
"Izinkulungwane eziyishumi ngaphezulu kwezakhamizi ezishonile eMpumalanga Ephakathi, esifundeni esibonwe isigidi esingu-1 eminyakeni engama-30 edlule, ngesibalo sami ...
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