Ukuvakasha kukaMongameli Barack Obama okuzayo e-India ngoNovemba kuza phakathi kokwanda okuphawulekayo kwezingxabano ebudlelwaneni base-US-Pakistan kanye nesimo esihle sobudlelwano beWashington ne-India. Ukuvakasha kwakhe eChina cishe ngonyaka owedlule kwakuyisikhumbuzo esibuhlungu eDelhi sokubaluleka okungenakuphikwa kweBeijing eWashington. Kodwa-ke, ulwazi luka-Obama lwase-China lwaphela kungekho mpumelelo enkulu ebudlelwaneni ne-Iran noma ezohwebo, evuna kakhulu i-Beijing ngenxa yezinga lokushintshisana eliphansi lohlobo lwemali yase-China. Impi yezohwebo iye yaqina onyakeni odlule, njengoba uKhongolose usanda kuphasisa umthetho ozojezisa iChina ngokubukela phansi imali yayo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukucasuka okuthulisiwe okuzwakele emibuthanweni esemthethweni yaseNdiya ekunqobeni kuka-Obama okhethweni lukamongameli lwango-2008 sekuhwamuke ngezinga elithile. Ngokuphambene nombono ongemuhle mayelana nokuba ngumongameli kaBush e-United States kanye nengxenye enkulu yomhlaba, uNdunankulu uManmohan Singh waseNdiya waze watshela umongameli ophumayo engqungqutheleni yezindaba eWhite House ngoSepthemba 2008, โAbantu baseNdiya bathanda kakhulu. wena.โ Kwaba kanjalo ukubonga kukandunankulu waseNdiya kuGeorge W. Bush ngokuletha isivumelwano senuzi e-India ezinyangeni zokugcina zobumongameli bakhe.
Cishe eminyakeni emibili kuqhubeke, lapho uNobhala Wezwe u-Hillary Clinton kanye noNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseNdiya u-SM Krishna behlangana eWashington ngasekupheleni kukaSepthemba, babiza ukuvakasha kukaMongameli Obama okuzayo kwaseNdiya ngokuthi โumzuzu obalulekile.โ Izwe laseMelika libonge i-India โngokuzibophezela kwayo e-Afghanistan.โ IWashington neNew Delhi zombili zinezimfuneko zazo. IPakistan ayikalethi obekulindelekile โempini yobushokobezi,โ kodwa isabalulekile kubaphathi baseMelika. Njengoba u-Obama esondela kumnqamulajuqu awuncamelayo kaJulayi 2011 wokuqala โukwehlaโ kwamasosha avela e-Afghanistan, i-India iqhamuka njengomfelandawonye ozimisele wecebo leMelika esifundeni, kanye ne-ejenti eshisekayo yokubhekana neChina, ngokungangabazeki amandla aphakeme ezempi nezomnotho. Njengoba u-Obama ecabanga ngezindlela zokunciphisa ukuzibandakanya kwezempi okuqondile e-Afghanistan ngemuva kwe-Iraq, abaphathi kumele banikeze indima yabo kuma-proxies, ne-India okuyimbangi eyinhloko. Ukuphatha kuka-Obama kanye nohulumeni womfelandawonye oholwa yiCongress Party e-India badlalela inzuzo enkulu, kodwa isibalo siphezulu eNdiya ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Kuleli qophelo, ngifuna ukwenza ukuqaphela okujwayelekile okukhombisa isimo saseNingizimu Asia, nokuthi lesi simo siguquke kanjani. Inqubomgomo yezangaphandle iwukuvikela ukuphepha nokuchuma kwezwe. Umgomo uwukuthuthukisa ubudlelwano obuvumelana ngangokunokwenzeka, ukugwema impi ebhubhisayo futhi embi ekuchumeni. Inqubomgomo yezangaphandle ephumelelayo incike ekuthuleni kwangaphakathi, ngoba ukungqubuzana kwangaphakathi cishe kuhlale kumema izithakazelo zangaphandle, uma kungenjalo ukungenelela, futhi kubhebhethekisa uthuthuva. I-India inombango onzima eKashmir kanye nezibhelu kwezinye izingxenye zezwe eziphucwe yimiphakathi yezizwe, ebizwa ngokungafanele ngokuthi amaMaoist. Ubudlelwano be-India nomakhelwane buyinzondo, buyizitha, futhi bubonisa ukungathembani nokusola. Nokho ukwazi kwe-Indian elite kugxile kakhulu ekuzuzeni izibalo ezimangalisayo zokukhula - 7, 8, mhlawumbe amaphesenti angu-10. Imibuzo enjengokuthi: "Singaqhudelana kanjani, futhi siyinqobe, iShayina futhi sakhe amandla ezempi." Isifiso sokuvelela saseNdiya siwukuba umbuso onamandla, futhi maduze nje. Konke kuhle kakhulu, kodwa kunezindleko - ukwanda kobumpofu, indlala, abalimi abancane abahlala bempintshana, imijondolo yasemadolobheni kanye nokuxoshwa kwabantu abahlala emijondolo. Kukhona ukulandisa okubili okuhluke kakhulu okuhambisana ne-India ekhulayo.
Inqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseNdiya isishintshe kakhulu kule minyaka engamashumi ayisithupha edlule. Ukuthuthuka kwayo komlando kufanele kuhlolisiswe ukuze kuqondwe umqondo kanye nezifiso ze-neoliberal elite yaseNdiya namuhla. Ngizobheka izehlakalo ezithile eziphawulekayo ezibambe iqhaza elibalulekile kule nqubo emashumini eminyaka adlule.
Iminyaka yawo-1950 kwakuyinkathi enzima kakhulu eNdiya, isizwe esiwusana, esintekenteke. Nokho, ngandlela thize, kwakuyinkathi engcono kakhulu. I-India yaziwa ngekhono layo elikhulu lokuhlinzeka ngobuholi bokuziphatha emphakathini okhulayo wezizwe ezisafufusa. Yayimele izindinganiso ezinjengokuphilisana ngokuthula, ukungahleleki kanye nesidingo sokuzanelisa ukuze kuqiniswe isimo sayo sokuzimela. Kwabonakala kuzimisele ukushiya inzuzo esheshayo ngenxa yentshisekelo yalezi zinto. Kwabe sekwenzeka izenzakalo ezimbili ezibalulekile ngawo-1960: ukunqotshwa yiChina ngo-Okthoba 1962, futhi ngemva kweminyaka emibili iChina yaba izwe lezikhali zenuzi. Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho kwavela izinzuzo zendawo ze-India empini yango-1965 nePakistan. AmaNdiya amaningi ayenomuzwa wokuthi izwe lawo lalinyakazekile ekuhlulweni kweChina ngo-1962. Kodwa isivumelwano saseTashkent sahoxisa lezo zinzuzo ngaphansi kwengcindezi yamaSoviet, ngoba amasosha aseNdiya kwakudingeka ahoxe endaweni ayeyithathe ePakistan.
Ezinye izenzakalo ezimbili zenzeka ngawo-1970. Okokuqala, impi ye-India-Pakistan yango-1971 eyaholela ekuhlakazweni kwePakistan kanye nokuvela kweBangladesh engxenyeni yayo esempumalanga. Kungaleso sikhathi lapho i-India yagcina isisusa โisifo saseChina.โ Okwesibili, ngo-1974 i-India yenza ukuhlolwa kwayo kokuqala kwezikhali zenuzi, okwaqala uhlelo lwenuzi lwasePakistan. Njengoba izikhali zenuzi zasePakistan zingokoqobo manje, lelo thuba, okungenani maqondana ne-Islamabad, selinciphile. Ngo-1975 umholi waseBangladesh uSheikh Mujibur Rahman wabulawa ekuvukeleni umbuso kwamasosha. I-India yalahlekelwa umngane oseduze kanye nezinzuzo eziningi zamasu ezenziwa empini yango-1971. Uma ngibheka emuva, ukunqoba kwePakistan ngo-1971 kube isibusiso esixubile. Ngasekupheleni kwawo-1980 uNdunankulu u-Rajiv Gandhi wacabanga ukuthi kwakungenzeka ukubeka ukuthula engxabanweni yobuhlanga yaseSri Lanka ngaphansi kweSivumelwano se-India-Sri Lanka. Wathumela ibutho elikhulu lezempi esifundazweni sasesiqhingini. Akusebenzanga njengoba bekuhlosiwe. Kunalokho, umuzwa waqiniswa phakathi komakhelwane wokuthi u-India wayeziphatha โnjengomfowethu omkhulu.โ
I-India yabhekana nosizi lwasekhaya ngo-1992. Abashisekeli benkolo yobuHindu babhidliza i-mosque yasendulo edolobheni elisenyakatho ye-Ayodhya, lapho bathi kwazalelwa khona u-Lord Ram. Kwalandela izibhelu zomphakathi okwafa kuzo izinkulungwane, ikakhulukazi amaSulumane. Lezi zehlakalo zifanekise ukukhula kobuzwe bamaHindu eNdiya, okuwumfanekiso wesibuko sentokozo yobufandamentali bamaSulumane ePakistan eminyakeni eyishumi edlule yokubusa kweSoviet e-Afghanistan. Ngokusiza amaqembu ama-Islamist ePakistan nase-Afghanistan ngezikhali nangemali yokulwa namabutho aseSoviet, i-United States ibe negalelo elikhulu ezenzweni ze-Islamic fundamentalism kuso sonke isifunda. Ngeminyaka yawo-1990 ukuvuswa kwemimoya kwaqala ukuzwakala ngaphesheya komngcele ngendlela ye-Hindu radicalization, lapho i-India yabona ukukhuphuka kweQembu lamaHindu le-Bharatiya Janata lithatha amandla. Lezo zenzakalo azigcinanga ngokugqamisa umphakathi wamaNdiya, kodwa nenqubomgomo yezwe yezangaphandle.
Okuxakayo ukuthi i-India, nedlule layo elibabazekayo, yasabela kahle kakhulu ngokugxeka okuthulisiwe kokuthathwa kweSoviet e-Afghanistan ngeminyaka yawo-1980. Futhi yeza ukusekela ukuhlasela okuholwa yi-US kanye nokuhlala kwe-Afghanistan eminyakeni eyishumi yokuqala yekhulu lamashumi amabili nanye. Ngaleso sikhathi, inhloso eyinhloko kwakuwukumelana nePakistan neChina. Namuhla, imvelo ezungeze iNdiya ayinabo ubungane. Ngakho-ke i-India yakhe i-flyover - umgwaqo omkhulu omkhulu - oya kwa-Israel, idlula izwe lamaSulumane nama-Arab. Leyo flyover isuka eTel Aviv iqonde eWashington. Isikhala phakathi kwe-India ne-Israel sishiywe kwabanye abadlali.
Njengoba i-India nePakistan zisavaliwe empini ebandayo ethathe amashumi eminyaka, izwe ngalinye lizama ukuthi i-United States ijezise elinye. Futhi ngayinye yezimbangi ezimbili ifuna ukukhombisa ukuthi, hhayi enye, ingumfelandawonye weqiniso waseMelika empini yokulwa nobuphekula. Kodwa njengoba sekuphinde kwabonakala eminyakeni yamuva, ukusetshenziswa kabi kwamandla ezempi ngokumelene nezakhamuzi zakhona kanye nakwamanye amazwe kuba nomphumela olimazayo nobhubhisayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. I-India kufanele icabangele ukuthi ngabe inqubomgomo yayo yezangaphandle ingenza kangcono yini ngebhalansi ehlukile yamandla ezempi kanye namandla okuyizithenjwa.
Deepak Tripathi, owayengumlobi we-BBC kanye nomhleli, ungumlobi e-US, ubudlelwano bamandla amakhulu, iNingizimu ne-West Asia. Ungumbhali we "Ukunqoba Ifa likaBush e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan" (2010). Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi โI-Breeding Ground: I-Afghanistan kanye Nemvelaphi Yobuphekula BamaSulumaneโ (Potomac Books, Incorporated, Washington, DC). Uhlala eduze kwaseLondon.
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