Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungase kubhekwe uma ukuqedwa kwayo yonke ingqalasizinda kaphethiloli wezinsalela kuqale ngokushesha, ngokocwaningo.
Kubonisa ukuthi ukuhlangabezana nesifiso okuvunyelwene ngaso namazwe ngamazwe sokugcina ukufudumala komhlaba kube ngaphansi kuka-1.5C ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwezimboni kusengenzeka. Ososayensi bathi ngakho-ke ukukhetha okwenziwa umphakathi wembulunga yonke, hhayi i-physics, okuyisithiyo sokufeza umgomo.
Ucwaningo luthole ukuthi uma yonke ingqalasizinda kaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi - izimboni zikagesi, izimboni, izimoto, imikhumbi nezindiza - kusukela manje kuqhubeke kuthathelwe indawo enye ye-zero-carbon ekupheleni kwezimpilo zabo eziwusizo, kunamathuba angama-64% okuhlala ngaphansi kwe-1.5C. .
Ngo-Okthoba, i- I-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ithe umehluko phakathi kwe-1.5C yokufudumala kanye nomgomo wangaphambilini wamazwe ngamazwe we-2C wawuyingozi ephansi kakhulu yesomiso, izikhukhula, amagagasi okushisa kanye nobumpofu kumakhulu ezigidi zabantu.
UChristopher Smith, wase-University of Leeds, owayehola lolu cwaningo, wathi: “Kuyizindaba ezinhle ngokombono we-geophysical. Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi lohlamvu lwemali, [ukuqedwa kwamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi ngokushesha] kusemkhawulweni walokho esingakwenza. Empeleni sithi ngeke sikwazi ukwakha lutho manje olukhipha izibaso ezimbiwa phansi.”
UNicholas Stern, weLondon School of Economics, owayengeyona ingxenye yeqembu labacwaningi, wathi: “Sisondela ngokushesha ekupheleni kwenkathi yezinto ezimbiwa phansi zokubasa. Lolu cwaningo luqinisekisa ukuthi yonke ingqalasizinda yezamandla emisha kumele isimeme kusukela manje uma sizogwema ukuvala izibopho ezikhiqizweni ezingaholela ekutheni umhlaba weqe izinhloso zesivumelwano saseParis.”
Isifundo, eshicilelwe kumagazini iNature Communications, yasebenzisa amamodeli wekhompiyutha ukuze ilinganisele ukuthi izinga lokushisa embulungeni yonke lingakhuphuka elingakanani uma ukususwa kwengqalasizinda kaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi kuqala ngokushesha. Ukuphila kwezitshalo zikagesi kwabekwa eminyakeni engama-40, izimoto isilinganiso seminyaka eyi-15 kanye nezindiza ezingama-26. Lo msebenzi uphinde uqede ngokushesha ukusetshenziswa kwenyama yenkomo nobisi, okunesibopho sokukhipha intuthu ephuma emhlabeni wonke.
Kulesi simo, amamodeli aphakamisa ukuthi ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzokwehla kuye kuqanda eminyakeni engamashumi amane ezayo futhi kuzoba nethuba elingama-66% lokunyuka kwezinga lokushisa elisele lingaphansi kuka-1.5C. Uma ukukhishwa kungaqali kuze kube ngu-2030, ithuba lingama-33%.
Ukuhlaziya akubandakanyi amathuba okuthi kube khona amaphuzu abalulekile njengokukhishwa kungazelelwe kwemithamo emikhulu ye-methane evela ku-permafrost, okungase kubangele ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke.
Ososayensi bayakwamukela ukuthi isimo sabo sisekupheleni okukhulu kwesifiso sokuvelela, kodwa bathi kubalulekile ukwazi ukuthi ukuhlangabezana nomgomo we-1.5C kusengenzeka ngokomzimba futhi kuncike ekukhethweni okwenziwe manje naseminyakeni ezayo. "Uhlelo lwesimo sezulu alukuvimbi [ukushaya okuhlosiwe], umphakathi womhlaba wonke uyakuvimba," kusho uSmith.
Omunye umsebenzi, kusetshenziswa indlela ehlukile, kuphinde kwabonisa ukuthi ukugcina ngaphakathi komkhawulo ongu-1.5C kungenzeka uma kuthathwa izinyathelo ezinqala ngokushesha. Kweminye imikhakha, ubuchwepheshe be-zero-carbon kakade bukhona, njengamandla avuselelekayo. Kodwa kwezinye, njengezindiza, akunjalo. "Mhlawumbe isixazululo lapha sindiza kancane," kusho uSmith.
USolwazi Dave Reay, waseNyuvesi yase-Edinburgh, naye owayengeyona ingxenye yethimba labacwaningi, uthe: “Ukuthi ukumba umthombo omusha wegesi, ukugcina isiteshi esidala sikagesi wamalahle sivuliwe, noma ukuthenga ngisho nemoto kadizili, ukukhetha esikwenzayo. namuhla izonquma kakhulu izindlela zesimo sezulu sakusasa. Umlayezo walolu cwaningo olusha ukhulu futhi ucacile: thatha isinyathelo manje noma ubone ithuba lokugcina lekusasa eliphephile lesimo sezulu lishabalala.”
Inkolelo kaSmith iwukuthi ukushisa komhlaba kuzodlula i-1.5C. “Sihamba ngendlela efanele, kodwa angicabangi ukuthi sizokwenza okwanele, ngokushesha ngokwanele. Ngicabanga ukuthi sibheke ku-2C kuya ku-2.5C.”
Kodwa wanezela: “Uma ungenawo umgomo, ngeke uye ndawo. Uma unenjongo okunzima ngempela ukuyifinyelela futhi uyigeje kancane, lokho kungcono kunokuzulazula ngokungenanjongo esimweni sezulu sesikhathi esizayo esingenalusizo kunoma ubani.”
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Nikela