Ngenkathi uMongameli waseRussia u-Vladimir Putin enomhlangano obalulekile noNobhala Wezwe waseMelika uJohn Kerry ngesonto eledlule, bekuyivelakancane kakhulu ukusuka kumthethonqubo ojwayelekile. Kodwa-ke, bekunomqondo wezepolitiki emhlanganweni ngoba u-Putin no-Kerry ngokusobala yibona abahamba phambili bezinqubomgomo zakamuva zohulumeni wabo mayelana ne-Syria futhi izingxoxo zabo ziholele ekumisweni kwezikhali okumangalisayo kwe-Syria kanye nezingxoxo ezingase zibe khona ze-Syria mayelana nokuxazulula ipolitiki.
IWashington neMoscow kwadingeka basebenzisane ukuze kuqedwe lokho kumiswa kanye nokuqalwa kwezingxoxo phakathi kweSiriya, manje okuhlelwe ukuthi ziqale ngenyanga ezayo, ngokusho kwenxusa elikhethekile leNhlangano Yezizwe, uSteffan de Mistura. Kodwa ukuqondisa kwezombusazwe akuzange kufake ithonya elilinganayo kuzinqubomgomo zomunye nomunye. IRussia kaPutin manje isikhombisile ukuthi inamandla asebenzayo kunqubomgomo kaKerry kanye ne-United States eSyria, kanti uKerry akanawo amandla afanayo kunqubomgomo yaseRussia.
U-Kerry ubonakale engumshayeli oyinhloko wokuxazulula izinkinga zezombusazwe ngonyaka odlule, eqhutshwa yisu elisekelwe ekusebenziseni impumelelo yezempi yamabutho aphikisayo aholwa yiNusra Front, ehlome i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo, enyakatho-ntshonalanga yeSyria. UKerry ubuke leyo mpumelelo njengendlela yokufaka ingcindezi kuhulumeni wase-Assad kanye nozakwabo waseRussia ukuthi bavumelane ngokuthi uMengameli u-Bashar al-Assad uzokwehla esikhundleni.
Kodwa lelo qhinga laphenduka iqili lapho uPutin emangaza amazwe angaphandle ngokungenelela eSyria ngamandla omoya anele ukuze abeke ama-jihadists, okuhlanganisa ne-Al Qaeda's Nusra Front, kanye nabalingani babo โabalinganiselayoโ ekuzivikeleni. Ngisalandela isu lase-US, manje sesiyazi U-Kerry ucele uMongameli u-Barack Obama ukuthi ahlasele amabutho ka-Assad ngokuqondile, ukuze uKerry abe โnamandlaโ ezingxoxweni namaRussia mayelana nokuqeda ukulwa nokuxazulula. Kepha u-Obama wenqaba ukwenza lokho, futhi impumelelo yaseRussia, ikakhulukazi ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari, yanikeza uPutin ithuba elicace nakakhulu ezingxoxweni ne-United States mayelana nokuqeda impi yaseSyria.
Isivumelwano phakathi kukaNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseRussia uSergei Lavrov kanye noKerry naso besifinyelele kude kakhulu kunalokho osekudaluliwe futhi ukumiswa kokudubula kubonakale kusebenza kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe noma ngubani. Manje sekucacile ukuthi isizathu siwukuthi u-Putin wakwazi ukuguqula amandla akhe amasha atholakala emvumelwano eyodwa ye-diplomatic yase-US edingekayo kunoma yikuphi ukuqeda impi.
Ngokombiko othile umbiko ngesonto eledlule ngu-Elijah J Magnier, obhala ngezombangazwe zesifunda kanye nokuxoxisana kwe-Al Rai, iphephandaba elihamba phambili lansuku zonke lase-Kuwait, "izikhulu eziphezulu ezikhona eSyria" - umbiko wakhe ocacisa ngokusobala ukuthi zingabase-Iranian - uthe i-United States ithembise njengengxenye yesivumelwano sokuyeka ukudubula "ukuphoqelela isifunda saseMpumalanga Ephakathi sihlanganisa ukumiswa kokungena kwezikhaliโ eSiriya.
Ephendula umbuzo we-imeyili walo mbhali, uMagnier uthe ufunde emithonjeni yakhe ukuthi azikho izikhali ezeqe umngcele zaya eSyria zisuka eTurkey noma eJordani selokhu kwaqala ukusebenza. Lesi sici esibalulekile sokuqonda kwe-US-Russian, lapho abaphathi baka-Obama bagcine ukuthula okucacile, ngokusobala bashiye ubuholi beNusra Front kanye nabalingani bayo bengenakho ukukhetha kodwa ukuhambisana nokumiswa komlilo isikhathi esinganqunyiwe.
Konke ukuphikiswa okuhlomile ngakho-ke kuvaliwe eSyria ngokuphikelela kwe-United States ngoba bekuyisidingo sokuthi amaRussia amise ukuhlasela kwawo.
Leso sivumelwano esifinyelele kude saseMelika sichaza ukuthi kungani uPutin amangaza umhlaba wonke ngokumemezela ngoMashi 14 ukuthi wayehoxisa inqwaba yendiza yaseRussia ebambe iqhaza kulokhu kuhlasela. Ngokuphambene nokuqagela kwezazi eziningi mayelana nenhloso yakhe ekwenzeni lokho, u-Putin empeleni wayekhulisa amandla akhe phezu kwesimo sezempi kanye nezingxoxo zezombusazwe ezisazofika. Imithombo kaMagnier imtshele ukuthi ngesikhathi uPutin etshela i-Iran ngenhloso yakhe yokuhoxisa izindiza, wagcizelela ukuthi zingabuyiselwa eSyria engakapheli amahora angama-24 uma kunesidingo.
Imithombo kaMagnier yase-Iran iphinde yakubeka kwacaca ukuthi i-Iran ibingeneme ngesikhathi sezinqumo zikaPutin mayelana nokumiswa komlilo. Babekholelwa ukuthi ifike okungenani inyanga maduze nje, njengoba amabutho ase-Irani abesesimweni sokuzuza indawo ethe xaxa.
Kepha isivumelwano sikaPutin sokumisa ukudubula kanye nokuhoxa kancane ngaphansi kombandela wokuthi abaxhasi bangaphandle ngeke baqhubeke nokuhlinzeka amakhasimende abo sinikeze isu elikhulu laseRussia lokubheka inhloso yeTurkey neSaudi Arabia yokudiliza umbuso ka-Assad - inhloso i-United States eyayinayo. ibambe iqhaza ngokujulile, njengoba yayigcizelela ukuthi ifuna ukulondoloza ukwakheka kwezinsiza zokuphepha zombuso waseSyria.
Kuza ngemuva kokukhombisa ukusebenza kahle kwendiza yaseRussia ekukhungathekiseni ukuhlasela okuholwa yijihadist ka-2015, uPutin wathatha ithuba lokubeka phansi isivumelwano noWashington wabe esekhipha iningi lendiza yakhe wadlulisela umyalezo kubaxhasi bangaphandle bama-jihadists ukuthi. kwakunesithakazelo sabo ukuba bangayiqali kabusha impi.
Ngokususa ukungqubuzana etafuleni lezingxoxo, umnyakazo kaPutin ubuye wengeza amandla aseRussia kuhulumeni wase-Assad, futhi amaRussia angalindeleka ukuthi abambe iqhaza ekuphakamiseni izindlela zokwenza isivumelwano saseSyria okhethweni olusha kanye nokuguqulwa komthethosisekelo. AbaseRussia bakhiphe isinqumo sokuthi u-Assad esule esikhundleni, kodwa abase-Irani besaba ukuthi isiqinisekiso asiyona i-ironclad. Izikhulu zase-Iran ziveze ngokuqinile ngasese e-Vienna ukuthi zikholelwa ukuthi amaRussia enze isivumelwano ne-United States mayelana nodaba olubalulekile lokukhulula unswinyo ngezindleko ze-Iran esigabeni sokugcina sezingxoxo zenuzi. Besaba ukuthi kungenzeka okufanayo eSyria.
Sekuyisikhathi eside i-Iran ibheka u-Assad kanye nombuso wakhe njengokhiye โku-axis of Resistance,โ ngakho-ke ibheka ukususwa kwakhe emandleni ngaphansi kwanoma iyiphi indlela njengokungamukeleki. Imithombo kaMagnier imtshele ukuthi i-Iran ikholelwa ukuthi uPutin uzokwamukela ifomula lapho u-Assad ezobiza omunye umuntu ozongenela ukhetho oluzayo, ngokusho kukaMagnier.
Uma izingxoxo sezifinyelele kuleso sigaba sezingxoxo, nokho-ke, u-Putin uzoba nezinketho eziningi zokuvumelana okungadingi ukuthi u-Assad ahoxe kuhulumeni. Kumthethosisekelo omusha, isibonelo, u-Assad angase athathe indima yomphathi wezwe ngemisebenzi eminingi yemikhosi kanye nendima "yokweluleka", kuyilapho amandla okwenza inqubomgomo ethathwa undunankulu. Ukuyekethisa okunjalo kungabonakala njengokugcina ukuba semthethweni kanye nokuzinza kombuso wamanje, nakuba uKerry engase athi isithakazelo esikhulu sabaphikisayo sesifezekile.
Vele, naphezu kwethonya elimangalisayo lezombusazwe uPutin akuzuzile, izingxoxo zisengahluleka. Lokho kungenzeka ngoba abaxoxisana bamaqembu aphikisayo abazimisele ukuvumelana nesivumelwano esibonakala sizogcina umbuso ka-Assad futhi ngenxa yokuthi abaphathi baka-Obama bakhombisa ukuthi abazimisele ukuphoqa abalingani babo ukuthi baqhubeke nokumiswa kokuhlinzekwa kwezikhali. Kodwa uma izingxoxo ziqhubeka isikhathi eside, kuba likhulu iqhaza likaJohn Kerry lokubabona befinyelela isivumelwano sokuvumelana futhi ngaleyo ndlela bagweme ukuqala kabusha kwempi ephelele.
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