Ukushuba kwesimo kwafinyelela umvuthwandaba ngoSepthemba 3 ngesimemezelo esimangalisayo sikaPyongyang sokuthi yenze isivivinyo sayo sesithupha, futhi esikhulu kunazo zonke, senuziโngalesi sikhathi sebhomu le-hydrogen elinamandlaโfuthi yayinamandla okubeka ibhomu kumcibisholo ocibishelayo we-intercontinental ballistic. Njengoba isimo esibucayi siphuma ekulawuleni, ithuba lokuxoxisana nezingxoxo ethembisiwe yithimba likaTrump lenqubomgomo yangaphandle ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula kubonakala sengathi liyaphela usuku nosuku.
Kuyamangaza ukuthi, ukuzungeza kwezenzakalo kwaqala ngophawu olunethemba ngo-Agasti 15, lapho uKim engenasici. kuhlehliswe phansi kusukela ohlelweni olushicilelwe kakhulu lokwethula imicibisholo ye-ballistic ebheke e-United States isiqhingi sase-garrison eGuam. Isinqumo sakhe sokumangala sidonse ukuphawula kukaTrump kanye noNobhala Wezwe uRex Tillerson, obehamba phambili eziphakamisweni zaseMelika zokuxoxisana. Uveze ukuthi "ukuvinjwa" kukaKim kungase kwanele ukuhlangabezana nezimo zase-US zezingxoxo - ukumiswa kokuhlolwa kwezikhali zenuzi kanye nemicibisholo - ukuthi muva nje Bekele ngaphandle kwi Wall Street Journal ibhalwe ngokuhlanganyela noNobhala Wezokuvikela uJames Mattis.
Kepha uKim, othe uzoxoxisana kuphela uma i-United States iqeda "inqubomgomo enenzondo nezinsongo zenuzi," wayexwayise ngokuthi uzocubungula ukuhlolwa kwakhe kwemicibisholo "uma abakwaYankees bephikelela ezenzweni zabo zobudedengu eziyingozi kakhulu." Ubekhuluma ngezivivinyo zamasosha ase-US-South Korea ezethulwe ngo-Agasti 21, ngokusho kwemibiko yabezindaba, kuhlanganisiwe ukuqeqeshwa kwenzelwa isiteleka sokuqala ngokumelene neNyakatho kanye nomdlalo wekhompyutha wempi yenuzi. Kuya Counter lo mbukiso wamandla, i-Pyongyang yavivinya amarokhethi amathathu ebanga elifushane futhi yalandela ngokudubula komcibisholo webanga eliphakathi phezu kwesiqhingi saseJapane saseHokkaido esisenyakatho.
Ngokubikezelwa, ukunyakaza kukaKim kwavusa isenzo esiphikisayo sase-US-a sebenzisa ukuqhuma kwamabhomuphezu kwesibhakabhaka sase-Korea ngamabhomu e-supersonic e-B1-B e-Lancer asekelwe e-Guam, esizwa amajethi empi empi athuthukile e-F-35B amane andiza esuka endaweni yase-US Marine e-Iwakuni, e-Japan. Ezinsukwini kamuva, iNyakatho yamemezela ukuthi isisungule i- ibhomu le-hydrogen eyayingase ibekwe ku-ICBMโfuthi, njengoba kushiwo, yaluvivinya ngokushesha umshini ekuqhumeni okukhulu okungaphansi komhlaba. UTrump uphendule nge-tweet egxeka iNyakatho njengesizwe "esikhohlakele". Ube esethuka iSouth Korea ngo ukushaya Ukhetho lukaMongameli Moon Jae-in lokuthembisana โushwele,โ ngokusobala echitha i-diplomacy efunwa ngabeluleki bakhe abaphezulu.
Mattis, owayenakho utshele Izintatheli ngesonto eledlule ukuthi "asikaze siphume ezixazululweni zezombusazwe," ngokushesha zaqinisekisa umphakathi ukuthi abaphathi bebevaleleke eKorea. Ngemuva komhlangano ophuthumayo e-White House ngesonto,wangena kwi camera uthi ukuthi uTrump uzohlangabezana nezinsongo eziningi "ngokusabela okukhulu kwezempi" okungaba "okusebenzayo futhi okumangazayo." I-United States, wengeza ngokumangazayo, "ayibheki ukubhujiswa okuphelele" kweNyakatho Korea kodwa kuphela ukuqeda uhlelo lwayo lwenuzi. Inxusa leNhlangano Yezizwe Nikki Haley kulandelwe Ngomsombuluko, etshela uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN ukuthi iNorth Korea โyayicela impiโ futhi kufanele ihlangatshezwe โngezijeziso eziqine kakhulu ezingenzeka.โ Kepha ushiye umnyango uvulekele izingxoxo, ethi "sesifikile isikhathi sokuthi sisebenzise zonke izindlela zethu zokusebenzelana kungakephuzi."
Njengoba ukuqina kwesimo kuqala eWashington, imihlanga emincane yokuqinisekisa evela kuMattis noHaley yabonakala iphakamisa ukuthi indlela kwezokuxhumana kanye nokuxoxisana kuhlala kuvulekile-ngokuncane. "Angicabangi ukuthi laba baphathi baphikisana nezingxoxo," kusho uVictor Cha, owayeyisikhulu sezokuphatha uBush osezoqanjwa njengenxusa laseMelika eSeoul, utshele. The Nation ngolwesibili. Kodwa lapho kukhona inkinga enkulu.
Ukukhuluma neNorth Korea kuyinto edayiswa kanzima eWashington. Umbono oyinhloko ukuthi izingxoxo eziqondile ziwumbono omubi ngoba, ngokombono wezikhulu eziningi kanye nama-pundits, i-Pyongyang ayikwazi ukwethenjwa. I-Exhibit One yalaba bahlanyisi iyona ehlanjalazwa kakhulu "I-Framework Evunyelweโ phakathi kukaMongameli uBill Clinton noyise kaKim, uKim Jong-il, okwaqeda inkinga yenuzi yokuqala nePyongyang ngo-1994 futhi kwaba okushiwo ngamaDemocrats angama-64 encwadini yakamuva eya kuTillerson njengesibonelo sezingxoxo ezizayo.
"Abaphathi bakaClinton baxoxisana ngalesi sivumelwano, futhi uhulumeni waseNyakatho Korea wasephula ngokushesha," uJohn King weCNN. ukwaziswa ngokuzethemba ababukeli bakhe July 5, ngemva nje kokuba iNyakatho ihlole i-ICBM eyayingase ishaye i-United States. Umbono kaKing, awuphinda izikhathi eziningana ngalolo suku ngaphandle kokunikeza nowodwa ubufakazi, waba umugqa ojwayelekile ku-CNN kanye nawo wonke amanye amathelevishini enethiwekhi, evimba njalo amazwi asho lokho ukusebenzelana kusebenzile esikhathini esedlule. Lokhu kuthathwa sekuphinde kwaba yinkulumo-ze kubameli bezijeziso ezinzima kanye nokushintshwa kombuso.
โUmshado? Ngike ngaba khona, ngenza lokho, ngathola izikibha-zonke zehlulekile, โuBruce Klinger, owayeyisikhulu se-CIA kanye nocwaningo oluphezulu lwasenyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia ohlangothini lwesokudla. I-Heritage Foundation, utshele isithangami saseWashington ngenyanga edlule ngokuxhumana kwakhe kafushane nezikhulu zaseNyakatho Korea. Ngisho noChristopher Hill, owayeyinxusa laseMelika eSeoul owaxoxisana nge-โSix-Party Talksโ ngo-2007 nango-2008 mayelana nokuphatha kukaBush, usegxumele ekamu okungadingi zingxoxo, ememezela ukuthi izingxoxo ezengeziwe zizomane โziqinise isandla sombuso okhohlakele.โ Izingxabano ezifanayo zenziwa yizikhulu ezintathu zase-US e izingxoxonge I-New York Times evikini eledlule.
Kodwa kuthiwani uma lezi zibalo zingelona iqiniso, futhi indaba esemthethweni ayilungile? Yini ngempela eyenziwa uHlaka Lwesivumelwano Esivunyiwe, futhi lwahlukana kanjani futhi kungani? Ingabe isivumelwano sikaMongameli uClinton sanikeza iNorth Korea ngempela ibhomu, njengoba amaRiphabhulikhi amaningi manje esho? Abesho ukuthini lawo maDemocrat angama-64 lapho enxusa uTillerson ukuthi โenze umzamo wokholo wokuphindaphindaโ impumelelo yawo? Ukubuyekezwa ngokucophelela kwesivumelwano sango-1994 kanye nezingxoxo nezikhulu zangaphambili zase-US ezinolwazi olunzulu ekuxoxisaneni nePyongyang kuveza ukuthi ukusolwa ngokushabalala kwayo kufanele kwabiwe ngokulinganayo yi-United States neNorth Korea. Ngenxa yokuthi lokho akuwona umbono odumile, futhi izingozi ziphezulu kakhulu, kubalulekile ukulungisa indaba.
Isivumelwano sango-1994 sasiyimpendulo ye-United States enkingeni yezepolitiki yesifunda eyaqala ngalowo nyaka lapho iNorth Korea imemezela inhloso yayo yokuhoxa ku-Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), esidinga ukuthi amazwe angewona awenuzi avume ukuthi angeke athuthuke noma athole. izikhali zenuzi. Nakuba yayingenaso isikhali senuzi, iNorth Korea yayikhiqiza i-plutonium, isenzo esacishe saholela elase-United States ukuthi liqale isiteleka sokulwa nesikhungo sayo se-plutonium.
Leyo mpi yagwenywa lapho uJimmy Carter ethatha uhambo olungalindelekile oluya ePyongyang futhi ehlangana nomsunguli nomholi waseNyakatho Korea ngaleso sikhathi, uKim Il-sung (washona ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva, futhi amandla akhe atholwa njengefa indodana yakhe, uKim Jong-il. ). Lolu hlaka lwasayinwa ngo-Okthoba 1994, lwaphetha โiminyaka emithathu yokuqhubeka nokuphikiswa, ukungqubuzana, ukunganaki, ukuxokozela, izinsongo zendluzula, nezingxoxo eziqinile,โ uPark Kun-young, uprofesa wobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe eKorea Catholic University, wabhala emlandweni wezi-2009 wezingxoxo.
Ngaphezu kokuvala i-reactor yayo eyodwa, i-Yongbyon, iNyakatho iphinde yamisa ukwakhiwa kweziphehlisi ezinkulu ezimbili โezazikwazi ukukhiqiza amabhomu angama-30 e-plutonium ngonyaka,โ ngokusho kombiko. Leon V. Sigal, owayeyisikhulu soMnyango Wezwe owasiza ekuxoxisaneni ngohlaka lwe-1994 futhi eqondisa iphrojekthi yezokuphepha yaseNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia eMkhandlwini Wocwaningo Lwezesayensi Yezenhlalakahle eNew York. Okubaluleke kakhulu e-United States, kwahlala ku-NPT.
Ukuze ithole imvume yaseNyakatho Korea, i-United States yavuma ukunikeza amathani angama-500,000 ngonyaka kawoyela osindayo eNyakatho Korea kanye nezindawo ezimbili zokuphehla amanzi alula ezithathwa njengezingaphezulu "ukumelana nokwandaโ kunesikhungo samanzi anamandla senkathi yamaSoviet eyayisetshenziswa iNyakatho. Ama-reactor amasha azokwakhiwa ngo-2003 yinhlangano yase-US/Japanese/South Korea ebizwa nge-Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, noma i-KEDO. (Nokho, ama-reactor awazange aqedwe).
Ku-Pyongyang, eyayisehlane lezomnotho kusukela kwawa iSoviet Union, umklomelo omkhulu kwaba isithembiso sase-US sokuyeka ukuphatha iNyakatho njengezwe lesitha. Ngokuqondile, izinhlangothi zombili zavuma ukuhamba ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka ekufezekiseni okugcwele kwezombusazwe kanye nezomnotho. Nakhu ukuthi kudlale kanjani.
Okokuqala, Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo lwaholela eNyakatho Korea ukuba imise uhlelo lwayo lwezikhali zenuzi olusekelwe ku-plutonium iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi, yadela ukunothisa okwanele ukwenza amabhomu enuzi angaphezu kwe-100.. "Abangakwazi abantu ukuthi iNorth Korea ayizange ibenze lutho kusukela ngo-1991 kuya ku-2003," kusho uSigal. (I-International Atomic Energy Agency yaqinisekisa ngo-1994 ukuthi iNyakatho yayiyekile ukukhiqiza i-plutonium eminyakeni emithathu ngaphambili.) โOmuningi walo mlandoโ mayelana neNyakatho Korea, uSigal uyanezela ngokuphefumulela phezulu, โusezweni lokuzenzisa.โ
Okwesibili, uhlaka lwahlala lusebenza kahle ekuphathweni kukaBush. Ngo-1998, i-State Departmentโs Rust Deming yafakaza kuCongress ukuthi โakukho ukwephulwa okuyisisekelo kwanoma iyiphi ingxenye yesivumelwano sohlakaโ; eminyakeni emine kamuva, isithembiso esifanayo senziwa nguBush owayenguNobhala Wombuso u-Colin Powell. "Ngiba nolaka kakhulu lapho ngizwa abantu kuCongress bethi lesi sivumelwano besingalifanele iphepha esanyatheliswa kulo," kusho uJames Pierce, owayeseqenjini loMnyango Wezwe eliholwa nguRobert Gallucci exoxisane ngohlaka. โIqiniso liwukuthi, kuningi esivumelwaneni sika-1994 okwasebenza futhi kwaqhubeka iminyaka ethile. Ukugomela, manje okuyivangeli, ukuthi abaseNyakatho Korea bakuphule ngaso leso sikhathi akulona iqiniso.โ
Okwesithathu, uhlaka kanye nokuxoxisana okuqhubekayo okwaholela ekuvumeleni abaphathi bakaClinton, beholwa nguNobhala Wezokuvikela uWilliam Perry, ukuthi baqalise iqoqo elimangalisayo lezingxoxo ezacishe zaholela ekuphumeleleni kokugcina nePyongyang.. Njengoba izingxoxo ziqhubeka, uKim Jong-il wenza isipho esishaqisayo: Ukuze kuqedwe ubutha, iPyongyang yayizimisele ukuvala ukuthuthukiswa kwayo, ukuhlolwa, nokusatshalaliswa kwayo yonke imicibisholo ejikijelwayo yebanga eliphakathi nelide. Kodwa isivumelwano asizange siqedwe. (UWendy Sherman, iphini eliphezulu likaNobhala Wezwe uMadeleine Albright, kamuva wabhala ukuthi lezi zinhlangothi zombili โzazisondelene ngendlela emangalisayo.โ) . "Futhi lokhu kwakungaphambi kokuba babe nama-nukes!"
Okwesine, i-United States ngokwayo kungenzeka yephule uhlaka ngokubambezela ingxenye ebaluleke kakhulu yesivumelwano se-Pyongyangโukuthunyelwa kukawoyela wase-US kanye nokujwayezwa okuphelele kobudlelwane bezombangazwe nezomnotho.. Ngo-1997, u-Sigal uyakhumbula, abaseNyakatho Korea babekhononda kabuhlungu ngokuthi i-United States yephuza ukuletha uwoyela wayo othenjisiwe futhi igxilile esithembisweni sayo sokuqeda izinqubomgomo zayo ezinobutha-isizathu esenza ukuthi uKim Jong-il asayine kwasekuqaleni. Phakathi ku Ukulalelwa kwendlu ngo-1998, uGallucci waxwayisa ngokwehluleka ngaphandle uma uhulumeni wase-US โesho ukuthi uzokwenza, okuwukuthwala umthwaloโ wokulethwa kukawoyela. "Kwakuphambene nalokhu kwamuva - ukukholelwa okukhulayo kukaPyongyang ukuthi i-US yayingafezi izibopho zayo - ukuthi iNyakatho ngo-1998 yaqala ukuhlola" ezinye izinketho zempi, uMike Chinoy, intatheli yangaphambili ye-CNN kanye nomlobi wezincwadi. I-Meltdown: Indaba Yangaphakathi Yenkinga Yenuzi yaseNyakatho Korea, wabhala muva nje esihlokweni esicacile ku I-Cipher Brief.
Ekugcineni, lolu hlaka lwabhidlika ngo-2003 ngemva kokuba abaphathi bakaBushโababefike esikhundleni benokungabaza okukhulu ngalesi sivumelwanoโbakhiphe uphiko lwezobunhloli lwase-US kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1990 ukuze basole iNyakatho ngokuqala uhlelo olucebe kakhulu lwe-uranium njengendlela yesibili eya ebhomu. (Bekungakafiki, nakuba bekubheka umhlaba wonke ukuze kusetshenziswe imishini yokucebisa ezosetshenziswa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.) UBush wadabula isivumelwano sohlaka, okwabhebhethekisa ukuwohloka kobudlelwano ayebusungule ngonyaka odlule lapho ebiza iNorth Korea ngokuthi ingxenye โye-eksisiโ yakhe. ububiโ ngo-January 2002. Ngokuphendula, iNyakatho yaxosha abahloli be-IAEA futhi yaqala ukwakha okwakuzoba ibhomu layo lokuqala, ngo-2006, okwabangela inkinga yesibili yenuzi esaqhubeka nanamuhla. "Ngicabanga ukuthi [bebekhohlisa] ukuze bavimbe ukubheja kwabo ngoba nathi besikopela," u-Lawrence Wilkerson, isikhulu sabasebenzi ku-Colin Powell ngo-2002, muva nje. utshele Izindaba Zangempela.
Ngamanye amazwi, indaba egcwele iyinkimbinkimbi, futhi ukusola kungaphonswa kalula nhlangothi zombili. Kepha imiphumela yaba yinhlekelele, njengoba uSigal afingqa ngobuhlakani bakhe umlando yezingxoxo zase-US-North Korea ezishicilelwe ngonyaka odlule yi-Korean Institute for National Unification and Columbia Law School.
"Ngesikhathi uMongameli uBush ethatha izintambo, iNorth Korea, ngenxa yezokuxhumana, yayiyekile ukuhlola imicibisholo ehamba ibanga elide," ebhala. โYayine-plutonium engaphansi kwebhomu futhi yayingenzi okuningi. eminyakeni eyisithupha kamuva, ngenxa yezithembiso eziphulwayo zaseWashington nezijeziso zezezimali, yayinamabhomu ayisikhombisa kuya kwayisishiyagalolunye [i-plutonium], yaphinde yaqala kabusha ukuhlolwa okuthatha isikhathi eside, futhi yazizwa ikhululekile ukuhlola izikhali zenuzi.โ Kusukela lapho, yena kuphawulwe ekuphawuleni kwakamuva, "noma yiziphi izimpumelelo bezingezesikhashana" ngoba "alukho uhlangothi olugcine izibopho zalo noma izingxoxo eziqhubekayo."
Eqinisweni, isimo saba sibi kakhulu ngesikhathi sokuphatha kuka-Obama, okungazange kubuyele esicongweni izingxoxo naphezu kwezithembiso zika-Obama ngesikhathi somkhankaso wakhe wezi-2008 zokuthi uzokhuluma nabaholi baseNorth Korea. U-Trump ubhekene nensalela yalezi zinqubomgomo ezihlulekile, futhi kubonakala sengathi uyakuqonda lokho ngesikhathi evuma ngokunqikaza umbono wezingxoxo eziqondile ngo-Agasti 9. "Sekuyiminyaka engu-25 bexoxisana manje," utshele izintatheli. โBheka uClinton. Wagoqa izingxoxo. Wayebuthakathaka futhi engasebenzi. Ubheka okwenzeka ngoBush, ubheka okwenzeka ngo-Obama. U-Obama, wayengafuni nokukhuluma ngayo. Kodwa ngiyakhuluma. Sekuyisikhathi. Kufanele umuntu akwenze.โ
Amaqiniso kaTrump, njengenjwayelo, awekho uphawu โ kepha isiphetho sakhe sokuthi izingxoxo ziyadingeka sizwakala. Nokho, ukuze awaqhube, abaphathi bakhe kuzodingeka babhekane nokuhlasela kwezombusazwe okufanayo okwasiza ukucwilisa Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo. Futhi-ke, njengamanje, ukuphikiswa kungenzeka kuqhamuke kwabaqinile benqubomgomo yezangaphandle abangakholelwa ukuthi i-diplomacy ike yasebenza neNyakatho Korea.
Imilando eminingi yoHlaka Okuvunyelenwe ngalo alinaki iqiniso elibalulekile: ngemva kwenyanga eyodwa lusayiniwe, i-GOP yathumba iCongress okokuqala ngqa eminyakeni engamashumi amane. "Ngokushesha nje isivumelwano senziwe amaRiphabhlikhi athatha izintambo zokulawula iNdlu kanye neSenethi, okubeke engcupheni," kubhala uSigal encwadini yakhe. umlando. Ngisho nangaphambi kokuba u-inki womile, u-Newt Gingrich kanye nabanye abaholi beqembu, ikakhulukazi uSenator John McCain, babehlasela uhlaka njengokuthengiswa okungahle kufumbathise iNorth Korea ukuze ilandele umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nokusabalala kwezikhali zenuzi futhi ibeke i-United States engcupheni eyengeziwe. "Sibuyela ezinsukwini zikaMongameli uCarter, zokushweleza," kusho uMcCain I-MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour ngo-Okthoba 1994.
Phakathi nesivumelwano, i-GOP yabambezela uxhaso olubalulekile lwe-KEDO namafutha kaphethiloli, okwaphoqa abaphathi bakaClinton ukuthi bafune izimali kwenye indawo futhi babambezele kakhulu ukuthunyelwaโโkwezinye izimo iminyaka,โ uthi Chinoy. Lokho kwadala ubunzima kumanxusa aseMelika abesebenzisana ngqo nabaseNyakatho Korea ekufezekiseni imigomo yabo, kukhumbula uPierce, owachitha izinsuku eziningi ePyongyang esebenzisana nezikhulu zaseNorth Korea ukuze ziqaphe lapho uwoyela kaphethiloli ugeleza khona ngemuva kokuthi ufinyelele eNyakatho. "Sihlanganise [izimali] ndawonye, โโโโngoba besazi ukuthi ngeke sisayithola imali kuCongress," usho kanje. "Kodwa bekumele senze uhlangothi lwethu."
Uhulumeni waseNyakatho Korea, wazi kahle ukuthi uKhongolose kanye neziphathimandla zinamandla alinganayo, ukubheke lokhu kubambezeleka njengokuhoxiswa kwezivumelwano ezenziwa ngo-1994. Nokho naphezu kwentukuthelo yawo, uhulumeni kaKim Jong-il, owahlanganisa amandla ngemva nje kokushona kukayise. , akenzanga mzamo wokucubungula kabusha uphethiloli osetshenzisiwe owawugcinwe ngaphansi kokuhlolwa kwe-IAEA e-Yongbyon noma ukuqalisa kabusha i-reactor. Kodwa njengesinyathelo sokuzivikela, iPyongyang yaqala ukwakha imicibisholo yebanga eliphakathi nendawo, eyayingakaze ibe yingxenye yezingxoxo. Ngo-1997 kwase kuvivinye ababili kubo, kwabangela ukuqhaqhazela kokwesaba ePentagon.
Ngo-1998, emzamweni onzima wokunxenxa i-United States ukuthi iqede inqubomgomo yayo enobutha, iNorth Korea yanikela ngokubeka uhlelo lwayo lwezikhali ezicitshwayo etafuleni ukuze kuxoxiswane. Lapho uClinton edelela, uPyongyang umkhankaso i-rocket enezigaba ezintathu ebizwa ngokuthi i-Taepodong emzamweni oyiphutha wokufaka isathelayithi emkhathini. Lokhu kuholele ekutheni uClinton aqoke uNobhala Wezokuvikela uPerry isithunywa sakhe ePyongyang ukuthi aqale izingxoxo zemicibisholo ezasondela ekuqedeni ukungezwani.
Isici esibalulekile esinqumweni sikaKim Jong-il sokuphinda angene ezingxoxweni kwaba inqubekela phambili ayenzile ekwehliseni ukungezwani nomongameli waseNingizimu Korea, uKim Dae-jung. Selokhu awina ihhovisi ngo-1996, owayengumholi weqembu eliphikisayo eNingizimu wayenqobe โInqubomgomo Yokushiswa Kwelangaโ ngaseNyakatho ebifuna ukuqeda ukuhlukana kwezwe ngokuzibandakanya kwezomnotho, kwezepolitiki namasiko. Ngo-2000, esigcawini esingajwayelekile esanika ithemba izigidi zamaKorea nhlangothi zombili ze-Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), lab' oKim bahlangana emhlanganweni wokuqala we-intra-Korea emlandweni futhi bamemezela ukuthi inhlonhlo yabo ngeke ibe nanuzi.
Lezo zenzakalo zanikeza umfutho ezingxoxweni zase-US-North Korea. Kungakabiphi ngemuva kwengqungquthela yaseNyakatho neNingizimu, uMarshal Jo Myong-rok, waseNyakatho Korea osesikhundleni esiphezulu nowayengowesibili ku-Kim, wavakashela eWashington, DC, wahlangana noMongameli uClinton nezinye izikhulu eziphezulu zaseMelika eWhite House. Basayina a izingxoxo ezihlanganyelweyakhelwe ukuqeda ukungezwani kwase-US-North Korea unomphela, futhi yathembisa ukuqala izingxoxo "zokuthuthukisa ngokusemthethweni" ubudlelwano bamazwe amabili, okuhlanganisa nokufaka esikhundleni sokulwa ngo-1953 okwaqeda iMpi YaseKorea "ngamalungiselelo okuthula angunaphakade," ngokusho kukaSigal. Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, u-Albright wandizela ePyongyang ukuyohlangana noKim.
Isivumelwano semicibisholoโokuhlanganisa nokuzibophezela kukaKim ukuqeda konke ukukhiqizwa nokuhlolwaโkwakuzokwenziwa ngokuvakashela ePyongyang nguClinton ngokwakhe. Kodwa akazange alwenze lolu hambo, ikakhulukazi ngoba abeluleki bakhe bamgcina eWashington ngesikhathi sokuqulwa kwecala okwanyakazisa iMelika ngokhetho olwabangwa ngo-2000 phakathi kukaDemocrat u-Al Gore kanye noGeorge W. Bush waseRepublican. Isivumelwano asikaze sisayinwe, nakuba ukumisa imicibisholo yaseNyakatho Korea kwaze kwaba ngu-2007. "Leso kwakuyisikhathi lapho konke kwakungase kuhambe ngendlela ehlukile," uPerry. utshele ENew York Times ku-podcast yakamuva mayelana nezingxoxo zango-1999.
Kwabe sekufika ama-neocons, nezingxoxo zaphuma ngefasitela. โNgaphansi kukaMongameli Bush, iwashi labuyiselwa emuva, [Uhlaka Oluvunyiwe] lwaba yiphutha likaClinton, into okufanele ichithwe bese iqedwa,โ kubhala uPark, uprofesa wobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe eKorea Catholic University.
Oyinhloko phakathi kwabamelene nohlaka kwakunguDonald Rumsfeld, unobhala wezokuvikela kaBush. Phakathi neminyaka kaClinton, ubengusihlalo wekhomishana kazwelonke yokuvikela imicibisholo eyahlonza iNorth Korea ne-Iran "njengamazwe ayingozi" adinga izinqubomgomo ezinzima kanye nohlelo oluqinile lokuvikela imicibisholo. Khonamanjalo, eMnyangweni Wezwe, u-John Bolton, naye ophikisana kakhulu, ugxeke kakhulu imigomo yohlaka njengeNgaphansi kukaNobhala Wombuso Wokulawulwa Kwezikhali. (Namuhla yena uthi ukuthi i-United States ingaqeda kuphela uhlelo lwenuzi lwaseNyakatho Korea "ngokuqeda iNorth Korea.")
Ekuqaleni kokuphatha kwakhe, uBush wabonisa ukungenami kwakhe ngezingxoxo zikaClinton zaseKorea lapho ehlangana eWhite House noKim Dae-jung. UKim, esagcwele injabulo engqungqutheleni yakhe yango-2000 noKim Jong-il, wayenethemba lokuthi uzoqinisekisa uBush ukuthi izingxoxo kufanele ziqhubeke. Kepha waphoxeka lapho umongameli emtshela, kumabonakude bukhoma, ukuthi akayethembi iNorth Korea futhi ngeke avume โInqubomgomo Yokukhanya kwelangaโ kaKim.
Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva, lapho ama-pragmatists e-State ngaphansi kuka-Colin Powell enquma ngemva kokubuyekezwa ukuqala kabusha izingxoxo noPyongyang, ama-hard-liners-eholwa ngu-Bolton-abamba "ukutholakala" kwe-uranium kusukela ku-1998 ukuze aqede uhlaka. โBengifuna isiphetho esiwujuqu sokuthi i-Agreed Framework ifile,โ kuchaza uBolton kamuva.
Ngo-Okthoba 2002, uBush wathumela uJames Kelly, isekela likanobhala wezwe, ePyongyang ukuyoletha isinqumo eNyakatho Korea. Wayenemiyalo eqinile evela kuVice-President Dick Cheney kanye noBolton ukuthi bangaxoxi nganoma iyiphi indlela-okuyinto ayilandela ngisho nangemva kokuba abakhulumeli bakhe baseNyakatho Korea bephikile ukuthi babenohlelo lwe-uranium kodwa bacela ukuxoxa ngezinsolo. โU-Kelly wayenabaqondisi abavela ehhovisi lika-VP kanye nabasebenzi baka-John Bolton,โ kukhumbula u-John Merrill, owayengumphathi wophiko olusenyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia lwe-Bureau of Intelligence and Research emnyangweni woMbuso. โUbengenayo nakancane indawo yokuhlola lolu daba. Kunalokho, wakuthatha njengokuvuma ukuthi banohlelo wagoduka.โ
Ngokwale akhawunti, abaseNyakatho Korea batshele uKelly ukuthi izwe "linelungelo" lohlelo lwe-uranium kodwa lizimisele ukuxoxa ngalolu daba njengengxenye yezingxoxo ezibanzi mayelana nemicibisholo. Kodwa ongqongqoshe kubaphathi basenqaba lesi siphakamiso futhi banquma ukunqamula uhlaka. Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa, iPyongyang yayisixoshe abahloli be-IAEA, ihoxisiwe ku-NPT, yaqala kabusha iYongbyon, futhi yayisendleleni eya ebhomu layo lokuqala.
U-Condoleezza Rice, encwadini yakhe yesikhumbuzo mayelana nolwazi lwakhe kuhulumeni kaBush, uchaze ukwenqaba kwe-US ukukhuluma nabaseNyakatho Korea mayelana nohlelo olunothiswe kakhulu lwe-uranium, noma i-HEU, njengephutha elikhulu. โNgenxa yokuthi imiyalelo [kaKelly] yayicindezela kakhulu, uJim akakwazanga ukuhlola ngokugcwele okungenzeka kube yithuba lokubeka uhlelo [lwenuzi] etafuleni,โ ebhala. Kamuva, ngenkathi engenela umongameli ngo-2008, u-Hillary Clinton wayiphakamisa lendikimba, egxeka abaphathi bakaBush ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lwe-HEU njengezaba zokuchitha Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo. "Ayikho impikiswano yokuthi, lapho [uhlaka] seludatshuliwe, abaseNyakatho Korea baqala ukucubungula i-plutonium ngokuphindiselela ngoba konke ukubheja bekuvaliwe," etshela. The Washington Post.
Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, abahlaziyi abaningi baye bangabaza ukuthi iNorth Korea yayinalo yini uhlelo oluphelele lwezikhali zenuzi ezisekelwe e-uranium ngo-2002, bephakamisa ukuthi lokho eyayinakho kwakuwuhlelo lokuhlola lokunothisa i-uranium "okungadalanga usongo olukhulu futhi oluseduze. ekulondekeni kwe-United States,โ ngokukaPark, isazi sobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe. Ngo-2007, isikhulu esiphezulu sezobunhloli e-US sabonakala siqinisekisa ukuthi lapho sitshela iCongress ukuthi i-CIA "yayinokuzethemba okuphakathi" kokuthi uhlelo lwe-uranium lukhona. (INyakatho yagcina ithuthukile, futhi kubonisiwe izikhungo zayo ngo-2010 kososayensi base-US.)
Noma kunjalo, i-Pyongyang ibambelele kulokhu: Ngo-Okthoba 2003, yanikela ngokuyeka uhlelo lwayo lwezikhali zenuzi uma i-United States ingasayina isivumelwano sokungalwi esifana nolimi olwasetshenziswa noClinton noPerry. Kodwa leli kwakuyibhuloho elikude kakhulu kuBush. โNgeke sibe nesivumelwano,โ yena wathi. "Lokho kungaphandle kwetafula." Ngo-2006, iNorth Korea yayisicubungule i-plutonium eyanele ukwenza ibhomu, futhi yaqhuma isisetshenziswa sayo sokuqala senuzi ngawo lowo nyaka. (Ukuthola umugqa wesikhathi onemininingwane wezingxoxo zase-US-North Korea, bona lokhu ukulandelana kwesikhathi eshicilelwe yiNhlangano Yokulawula Izikhali.)
Nokho naphezu kwethonya elikhulu lama-neocons ngaphansi kukaBush, izingxoxo zaqhubeka phakathi kweWashington neNyakatho, kanye neChina, iRussia, iJapan kanye neNingizimu Korea, ngaphansi kwezingxoxo zamaQembu Ayisithupha. Ngokumangalisayo, ngo-2006, ngemva kwamasonto amathathu iNyakatho Korea ihlola ibhomu layoโโumugqa obomvuโ i-United States eyayizama ukuwususa kusukela ngawo-1980โuBush wavuma ukuvula izingxoxo eziqondile noPyongyang njengengxenye yenqubo Yeqembu Eliyisithupha.
Lezi zingxoxo zaziwumphumela wesimemezelo seNyakatho Korea ngo-2005 sokuthi izovuma, uma izimo ezithile zihlangatshezwa, iziyeke izikhali zayo zenuzi futhi ibuyele ku-NPT. NgoFebhruwari wezi-2007, ngemuva kwesimo esibucayi kanye nenhlekelele eyaholela ekuhlolweni kwango-2006, iNyakatho yamisa ukuhlolwa kwayo kwenyukliya futhi yavala isiphepho sayo; ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva, yavuma ukukhubaza izindawo zayo ze-plutonium eYongbyon. Ngokubuyisela emuva, i-United States ithembise ukudambisa unswinyo futhi ikhiphe iNorth Korea ohlwini lwamazwe axhasa ubuphekula. Kodwa isivumelwano masishane sahlukana ngodaba lokuqinisekiswa kwemisebenzi yokunothisa yasePyongyang kanye ne-plutonium.
Njengesivumelwano sikaClinton sika-2000, izingxoxo zikaBush zadalulwa yintuthuko ngaphakathi kweKorea, okuhlanganisa nengqungquthela yesibili yeNyakatho neNingizimu ngo-Okthoba 2007. Kodwa ngokushesha ngemva kwalowo mhlangano, umongameli oqhubekayo waseNingizimu Korea uRoh Moo-hyun walandelwa u-Lee Myung-bak, ilungelo. -winger ufile usethelwe ngokumelene ne-Sunshine Policy. Esekelwa uhulumeni omusha we-Conservative eJapane, naye owenqaba ukuhlanganyela, u-Lee wafuna uhlelo lokuqinisekisa olubhaliwe uBush avumelana nalo ngokushesha.
INorth Korea, nokho, yasiphikisa kanzima lesi sidingo njengokwephula izivumelwano zango-2005 ezisayinwe nguhulumeni wakwaRoh. Ephendula, bobabili iSouth Korea neJapan banqamula usizo lwabo lwamandla oluya eNyakatho, kwashiya izingxoxo zamaQembu Ayisithupha zishayisana. (Izinqubomgomo zika-Lee eziqinile, ezamukelwa nayindlalifa yakhe, uPark Geun-hye, zakhulisa kakhulu ukungezwani neNyakatho futhi zasiza ukuletha inkinga ekhona njengamanje, uMongameli wamanje uMoon Jae-in. utshele nami engxoxweni no The Nation ngoMeyi.)
Kodwa-ke, izingxoxo ze-Six-Party, azizange zenzeke kuze kube yizinyanga zokuqala zokuphatha kuka-Obama. Ngokomlando onemininingwane kaSigal, uMongameli Obama kanye noJeff Bader, umeluleki wakhe omkhulu e-Asia, banquma ngo-2009 ukwamukela iziphakamiso zikaMongameli u-Lee zokusebenzisa ukumiswa kosizo lwamandla njengengcindezi yokuphoqa iNorth Korea ukuthi yamukele izinhlelo zokuqinisekisa ababezifuna manje. U-Lee uphinde waba nethuba lobudlelwane obuseduze, obunobungane noMongameli Obama, okuyinto The New York Times okubonakalayo "njengokuhlukumeza kukamongameli."
Umqondo wezingxoxo eziqondile neNyakatho, owagqugquzelwa ngesikhathi somkhankaso ka-Obama wezi-2008, uyekwa. Inqubomgomo yaseWashington, ngokusho kukaSigal, yaba "ingcindezi emsulwa ngaphandle kwezingxoxo." Ngokusemthethweni, le mfundiso yaziwa ngokuthi โukubekezela okunamasu,โ kodwa ngemuva kwayo bekucatshangwa ukuthi iNorth Korea isizowa. Amaqhinga okucindezela u-Obama-Lee akhulisa ukungezwani, okuholela ekuqhubekeleni phambili nokuhlolwa kwezikhali zenuzi kanye nemicibisholo yaseNyakatho Korea, kanye isigameko sokudubulana ngo-2010 lokho kwacishe kwabangela ukulwa kwezempi.
Njengoba isimo siba sibi, u-Obama waqala uchungechunge lwezivivinyo zezempi neSouth Korea ezakhula ngosayizi kanye nesivinini ngesikhathi sokuphatha kwakhe futhi manje basenhliziyweni yokungezwani noKim Jong-un. Noma kunjalo, inkhulumomphendvulwano yaqhubeka ngezikhathi ezithile, ikakhulukazi ngesiteshi sezikhulu zangaphambili zase-US esifake noSigal.
Ngo-2010, iNorth ehlongozwayo ngalo mzila ukuhambisa izinsimbi zawo zamafutha enuzi, okuyisithako esibalulekile sokukhiqiza i-plutonium yezinga lezikhali, iye ezweni lesithathu ukuze ihwebe ngokuzibophezela kwe-US ukuthi โyayingenayo inhloso embiโ ngaseNyakatho. Kodwa abaphathi baka-Obama "abazange balalele," ngokusho kukaJoel Wit, owayengumxoxisi owabamba iqhaza emhlanganweni. Ngo-2015, i-Pyongyang yenza isiphakamiso esikhulu sesivumelwano sokuthula esasizoqeda ubutha; lokhu, nakho, kwenqatshwa ngaphandle kwesandla.
Ekupheleni kuka-2016, njengoDavid Sanger wabhalwa phansi ku Times, u-Obama wayenqume isu le-inthanethi elinolaka elasebenzisa ukuhlasela kwe-elekthronikhi "ukucekela phansi" imicibisholo yaseNyakatho Korea namaketanga ayo okuhlinzeka. Njengoba u-Obama ephuma endaweni yesigameko futhi uTrump efika e-White House, ubudlelwano babubhebhetheka ngendlela engasalungiseki.
Ngo-Ephreli walo nyaka, kulandela uchungechunge lokuhlolwa kwemicibisholo, uTrump wasusa ukushisa, futhi ukungezwani kusukela lapho kudlule ophahleni. Nokho, njengoba Ngabika The Nation, INorth Korea ibambelele embonweni wokuthi izingxoxo zizokwenzeka kuphela uma i-United States iqeda "inqubomgomo enobutha" uPyongyang acabanga ukuthi iWashington yayiyichithile nge-Agreed Framework 1994.
Namuhla abaphathi bakaTrump bazama ukuhlanganisa unswinyo olubhekiswe ePyongyang nengcindezi yokuthi iChina ilethe iNyakatho etafuleni. Lokho kungenzeka ukuthi kusebenze ngezinga elithile: Ukuhlehla kukaKim Jong-un ngo-Agasti 14 kufike amahora ambalwa ngemuva kokuthi iBeijing ithe izokwenqabela ngokushesha ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwamalahle aseNyakatho Korea, insimbi nokudla kwasolwandle. Lesi sinqumo silandela ivoti elingajwayelekile laseChina lika-Agasti elivuna unswinyo olunzima olwabekwa uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN.
Kepha ngesinye isikhathi, i-United States kuzofanela ihlale phansi nabamele uKim futhi ifune ukumisa okuthile okuzobeka iNyakatho endleleni yokuqeda amandla enyukliya-noma iyamukele njengamandla enuzi futhi ifune ukuthulisa uhlelo lwayo, njengoba UJames Clapper, owayengumqondisi weNational Intelligence, kanye nezinye izikhulu zangaphambili zase-US ehlongozwayo. (Abanye abaxoxisana nabo esikhathini esidlule aphikisana.) Ngesonto eledlule, iWill Ripley ye-CNN kubika, uPyongyang wamtshela ukuthi ukuvuma kwe-US ngohlelo lwayo lwenuzi kuzovula indlela yokuxoxisana.
E-UN kuleli sonto, iChina neRussia baphinde baphikisana ngokuthi indlela engcono kakhulu yokuqala lezo zingxoxo "iqhwa ukuze kube yiqhwa," lapho iNyakatho imisa ukuhlolwa kwayo kwenyukliya kanye nemicibisholo ukuze kumiswe noma kumiswe ukuhlolwa. ukukala emuva yezivivinyo ezinkulu zezempi zase-US-South Korea ezinakho ukhanyisiwe eNyakatho. Nakuba lokhu kushintshana kwenqatshiwe ngabaphathi bakaTrump (uHaley akubize ngokuthi โinhlambaโ), umxoxisi wangaphambili wase-US usanda kukhumbuza iqembu lababukeli baseKorea ocingweni oluyimfihlo lwengqungquthela ukuthi ukumiswa kukaClinton kokuzivocavoca kwe-US โTeam Spiritโ eSouth Korea kwaba. "okubalulekile" ukuze kuphasiswe Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo. Khonamanjalo, inhlolovo yakamuva iphakamisa ukuthi amaphesenti angama-60 abantu baseMelika bathanda isivumelwano okuxoxiswene ngaso neNorth Korea.
Njengangonyaka we-1994, ukuhwebelana kuzofanele kufike phakathi kokuqeda ubutha nokuthola ukuthula. Endaweni ethile emlandweni walezo zingxoxo, uTillerson nomongameli wakhe bangathola ukhiye wokuxazulula ingxabano eyaqala ngo-1945 kanye nokuqala kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Kodwa kuzofanele bakwenze ngokubambisana okugcwele kweSouth Korea, njengoba uMongameli Moon enza njalo khunjuzwaTrump. "Akekho okufanele avunyelwe ukuba anqume ngesinyathelo sezempi eNhlonhlweni YaseKorea ngaphandle kwesivumelwano saseNingizimu Korea," uMoon wamemezela esitatimendeni esingacacile ngokungavamile ngo-August 15. Inhloso yezijeziso nengcindezi, wanezela, "iwukuletha iNorth Korea ezweni. etafuleni lezingxoxo, hhayi ukuvusa ukungezwani kwezempi.โ
U-Yoon Young-kwan, osebenze noMongameli Moon njengongqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseNingizimu Korea ekuphathweni kweRoh Moo-hyun, ukugcizelele lokho kuphawula ngoSepthemba 5 engqungqutheleni yaseWashington mayelana nobudlelwano be-US-South Korea. Ngalezi zikhathi ezishubile, uthe, "kumele sigcine imigudu yethu yezokuxhumana ivulekile futhi sihlole okungenzeka."
Uveze isigatshana sohlaka lwango-1994 lokulungisa ubudlelwano bezepolitiki nezomnotho base-US-North Korea. "INorth Korea ibikulindele kakhulu lokho," esho. โKufanele sibanikeze uhlobo oluthile lokukhuthazaโ ukuze baxoxisane. Njengoba isazi-mlando uBruce Cumings khunjuzwa nathi emasontweni ambalwa edlule, enye impi โyomlilo nentukuthelo,โ njengoba uTrump edumile esongelwa ngo-Agasti 9, akukho mbuzo.
Tim Shorrock yintatheli eseWashington, DC-based kanye nombhali we Izinhloli Eziqashwayo: Umhlaba Oyimfihlo Wokuphuma Kwezobunhloli.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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