Umthombo: I-Dispatches evela ku-Edge
Indawo enzima kakhulu futhi eyingozi kakhulu - iSouth China Sea, amanzi ayisigidi-skwele samamayela angu-1.4 emngceleni waseNingizimu China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Borneo, Brunei, Taiwan kanye nePhilippines. Ngaphandle kokuba umzila omkhulu wezohwebo, inothile ngemithombo yemvelo
Ukubuka kwasemoyeni Kogwini lwase-Shimei Bay eSouth China Sea, Wanning County, Hainan, China.
Isithombe ngu-DreamArchitect/Shutterstock.com
Ukuphatha kukaMongameli uJoseph Biden Jr kubhekene nenqwaba yezinkinga ezinzima, kodwa kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle kuzoba ubudlelwano bayo nePeople's Republic of China (PRC). Ukuthi lisingatha kanjani izindaba zezohwebo, ezokuphepha kanye namalungelo abantu kuzovumela womabili la mazwe ukuthi enze ubudlelwano bokusebenza noma adonsele i-US empini ebandayo ebizayo-nengenqobe-ezovala izinsongo ezikhona ezifana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nempi yenuzi.
Izigxobo azikwazanga ukuba phezulu futhi iWashington kungenzeka ukuthi ihambe ngonyawo olungalungile.
Isithiyo sokuqala kuzoba umoya onobuthi odalwe ngabaphathi bakaTrump. Ngokukhomba Iqembu LamaKhomanisi LaseShayina njengesitha esikhulu se-US emhlabeni wonke, owayenguNobhala Wezwe uMike Pompeo wabiza ukuthi ushintsho lombuso, okusho ukulwa kuze kube sekufeni. Kepha ngenkathi uTrump ebhebhethekisa ukungezwani phakathi kweWashington neBeijing, izingxabano eziningi zibuyela emuva eminyakeni engaphezu kwengama-70. Ukuqaphela ukuthi umlando uzobalulekile uma abathintekayo bezofinyelela uhlobo oluthile lwe-detente.
Lokhu ngeke kube lula. Ukuvota kulawa mazwe womabili akhombisa ukukhula ukuphikisana kuyo yomibili imibono yabantu ngomunye nomunye kanye nokwanda kobuzwe okungenzeka kube nzima ukubulawula. Iningi lamaShayina licabanga ukuthi i-US izimisele ukuhlukanisa izwe labo, ilihaqe ngamadlelandawonye anobutha, futhi ilivimbele ekubeni umbuso womhlaba. Abantu abaningi baseMelika bacabanga ukuthi iChina iyinkunzi enegunya elibaphuce imisebenzi eholela kahle ezimbonini. Kunenani elithile leqiniso kuyo yomibili imibono. Iqhinga kuzoba indlela yokuxoxisana ngendlela ethile ngokusebenzisa umehluko wangempela.
Indawo enhle yokuqala ukuhamba ibanga elingamakhilomitha ezicathulweni zelinye izwe.
Emlandweni omningi wabantu, iShayina ibihamba phambili kwezomnotho emhlabeni. Kodwa kusukela ngeMpi Ye-Opium yokuqala ngo-1839, amandla angamakoloni aseBrithani, amaFulentshi, amaJapane, amaJalimane kanye neMelika alwa nezimpi ezinhlanu ezinkulu neziningi ezincane neChina, athumba amachweba futhi enza izivumelwano zohwebo. AmaShayina awakaze ayikhohlwe leyo minyaka yobumnyama, futhi noma iyiphi indlela yobunxusa engawunaki lowo mlando ingase yehluleke.
Indawo enzima kakhulu futhi eyingozi kakhulu - iSouth China Sea, amanzi ayisigidi-skwele samamayela angu-1.4 emngceleni waseNingizimu China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Borneo, Brunei, Taiwan kanye nePhilippines. Ngaphandle kokuba umzila omkhulu wezohwebo, inothile ngemithombo yemvelo.
Ngokusekelwe esikhathini esidlule sombuso wayo, i-China ithi ubunikazi bolwandle oluningi futhi, kusukela ngo-2014, yaqala ukwakha izisekelo zamasosha emaketangeni naseziqhingini ezigcwele indawo. Emazweni asemngceleni wolwandle, lezo zimangalo nezisekelo zisongela izinsiza zasolwandle futhi zibeka engcupheni yokuphepha engaba khona. Ngaphandle kwabantu bendawo, abantu baseMelika bebelokhu bengamandla esifundeni kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yezwe II futhi abananhloso yokuyeka ukubamba kwabo.
Ngenkathi iSouth China Sea ingamanzi aphesheya, yenza ingxenye enhle yomngcele oseningizimu yeChina, futhi ibiyisango labahlaseli phambilini. AmaShayina awakaze asabise ngokuvimbela ukuhweba esifundeni-isenzo sokuzilimaza noma ngabe yikuphi, ngoba izimoto eziningi ziyizimpahla zamaShayina-kodwa bakhathazekile ngezokuphepha.
Kufanele babe.
I-US inezisekelo zamasosha ezinhlanu ezinkulu ePhilippines, ezingama-40 lezisekelo e-Japan nase-Korea, kanye ne-7th Fleet yayo-ezinze e-Yokosuka, e-Japan-iyibutho elikhulu lezempi lase-Washington. I-US iphinde yahlanganisa umfelandawonye we-Australia, Japan, kanye ne-India-“i-Quad”–ehlanganisa izenzo ezihlanganyelwe. Lokhu kufaka phakathi imidlalo yaminyaka yonke yempi ye-Malabar eyimodeli evimbela ukunikezwa kwamandla olwandle lwase-China ngokuvala i-Malacca Straits phakathi kwe-Malaysia nesiqhingi sase-Indonesia i-Sumatra.
Isu lezempi lase-US endaweni, elinesihloko "I-Air Sea War," ihlose ukulawula ugu oluseningizimu yeShayina, inqume ikhanda ubuholi bezwe, futhi ikhiphe amandla ayo ezikhali zenuzi. Isinyathelo esiphikisayo saseChina kube wukuthatha iziqhingi nezixhobo zamatshe ukuze kugcinwe imikhumbi-ngwenya yase-US kanye nemikhumbi-ngwenya yase-US ikude, okuyisu elibizwa ngokuthi “Indawo Yokuphika.” Bekubuye kube ngokungemthetho kakhulu. Isinqumo sango-2016 sePermanent Court of Arbitration sathola ukuthi izimangalo zaseChina eSouth China Sea azinasisekelo. Kodwa eBeijing ulwandle luwumngcele osengozini. Ake ucabange isikhashana ukuthi iWashington ibizosabela kanjani uma i-China ibamba imidlalo yempi yezempi yase-Yokosuka, eSan Diego noma eGulf of Mexico. Amanzi omuntu oyedwa emhlabeni jikelele ayindawo yomunye umuntu.
'Ukungezwani olwandle lwaseNingizimu neChina kubuyela emuva empini yombango yaseShayina phakathi kwamakhomanisi namashiqela, lapho abaseMelika besekela uhlangothi oluhluliwe. Lapho abashisekeli bezwe ababehluliwe babuyela e-Taiwan ngo-1949, i-US yaqinisekisa ukuzivikela kwesiqhingi, yabona i-Taiwan njengeChina, futhi yavimba i-PRC ebulungwini be-UN.
Ngemuva kohambo lukaMongameli waseMelika uNixon eChina ngo-1972, la mazwe womabili asebenza izivumelwano eTaiwan. IWashington izokwamukela ukuthi iTaiwan iyingxenye yeChina, kodwa iBeijing yayingeke isebenzise amandla ukuhlanganisa isiqhingi nezwe. Abantu baseMelika baphinde bavuma ukuthi ngeke babe nobudlelwano obusemthethweni neTaipei noma banikeze iTaiwan izikhali zempi “ezibalulekile”.
Nokho, ngokuhamba kweminyaka, lezo zivumelwano ziye zabheda, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi sokuphatha kukaBill Clinton.
Ngo-1996 ukungezwani phakathi kweTaiwan kanye nezwe elikhulu kwaholela eBeijing ukugigiyela, kodwa i-PRC yayingenawo amandla okuhlasela isiqhingi, futhi zonke izinhlangothi ezihilelekile zazikwazi lokho. Kodwa uClinton wayezama ukuphambukisa ukunaka engqungqutheleni yakhe noMonica Lewinsky futhi inkinga yangaphandle ilingana nomthethosivivinywa, ngakho i-US yathumela iqembu lempi elithwala izindiza ngokusebenzisa iTaiwan Straits. Nakuba i-Straits ingamanzi aphesheya kwezilwandle, kwakuseyisinyathelo esivusa inkanuko futhi esaqinisekisa i-PRC ukuthi kufanele ithuthukise amasosha ayo uma izovikela ugu.
Kukhona indida ethile lapha. Ngenkathi abaseMelika bethi ukuthuthukiswa kwezempi yaseShayina kuyingozi usongo, kwakuyizenzo zase-US enkingeni yase-Taiwan Straits ezathusa i-PRC yangena ohlelweni lokuphahlazeka ukuze yakhe leyo butho lasolwandle lesimanje futhi yamukele isu le-Area Denial. Ngakho-ke, ingabe sinakekele i-pinion ukuze siqhube insimbi?
Impela uTrump uye wabhebhethekisa ukungezwani. I-US manje ithumela njalo imikhumbi yempi nge-Taiwan Straits, yathumela amalungu ekhabhinethi esezingeni eliphezulu eTaipei, futhi muva nje idayise amabhomu e-F-66s asebenza kahle esiqhingini angama-16.
Emehlweni eBeijing zonke lezi zenzo zephula izivumelwano eziphathelene neTaiwan futhi, empeleni, zichitha isimangalo saseChina esifundazweni esihlubukayo.
Yisikhathi esiyingozi. AmaShayina aqinisekile ukuthi i-US ihlose ukubazungeza ngebutho layo lezempi kanye ne-Quad Alliance, nakuba lowo wangaphambili engase angabi nawo umsebenzi, futhi lokhu okugcina kuyinto enhle kakhulu kunokubukeka. Nakuba i-India isondelene nabantu baseMelika, i-China inguzakwethu omkhulu wezohwebo futhi i-New Delhi ayikazimisele ukulwa neTaiwan. Umnotho wase-Australia nawo uxhumene kakhulu neChina, njengoba kunjalo neJapan. Ukuba nobudlelwano bezohwebo phakathi kwamazwe akuwavimbeli ukuthi aye empini, kodwa kuyawavimbela. Ngokuqondene namasosha ase-US: cishe konke imidlalo yempi phezu kweTaiwan iphakamisa ukuthi umphumela okungenzeka kakhulu ube ukunqotshwa kweMelika.
Impi enjalo, yebo, ingaba inhlekelele, ilimaze ngokujulile iminotho emibili emikhulu yomhlaba futhi ingase iholele ngisho nakulokho okungacatshangwa—ukuhwebelana ngezikhali zenuzi. Njengoba i-China ne-US zingakwazi “ukwehlula” komunye nomunye nganoma yimuphi umqondo walelo gama, kubonakala kuwumqondo omuhle ukuhlehla futhi sithole ukuthi yini okufanele yenziwe mayelana ne-South China Sea ne-Taiwan.
I-PRC ayinaso isimangalo esingokomthetho ezingxenyeni eziningi zeSouth China Sea, kodwa inokukhathazeka okusemthethweni kwezokuphepha. Futhi uma sibheka izinqumo zikaBiden zikaNobhala Wezwe kanye Nomeluleki Wezokuphepha Kuzwelonke-u-Anthony Blinken kanye noJake Sullivan, ngokulandelana-kunesizathu salokho kukhathazeka. Bobabili bebelokhu beyi-hawkish eChina, futhi uSullivan ukholelwa ukuthi iBeijing "ukuphishekela ukubusa emhlabeni jikelele."
Abukho ubufakazi balokhu. I-China yenza impi yayo ibe yesimanje, kodwa isebenzisa cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yalokho okuchithwa yi-US. Ngokungafani ne-US, akwakhi uhlelo lomfelandawonye-ngokujwayelekile, i-China icabanga umbimbi isithiyo–futhi nakuba inohulumeni wobushiqela ongajabulisi, izenzo zayo ziqondiswe ezindaweni iBeijing ebilokhu ibheka njengengxenye yeChina yomlando. I-PRC ayinazo imiklamo yokusabalalisa imodeli yayo emhlabeni wonke. Ngokungafani ne-US-Soviet Cold War, umehluko akuzona ezengqondo, kodwa yilezo ezivela lapho izinhlelo ezimbili zonxiwankulu ezihlukene ziqhudelana ngezimakethe.
I-China ayifuni ukubusa umhlaba, kodwa ifuna ukuba amandla amakhulu esifundeni sayo, futhi ifuna ukuthengisa izinto eziningi, kusukela ezimotweni zikagesi kuya kuma-solar panel. Lokho akubeki usongo lwezempi e-US, ngaphandle uma iWashington ikhetha ukubekela iChina inselelo emanzini ayo asekhaya, into amaMelika angayifuni futhi angeke akwazi ukuyikhokhela.
Kunezinyathelo ezimbalwa okufanele zenziwe amazwe womabili.
Okokuqala, womabili la mazwe kufanele ashaye phansi izinkulumo futhi anciphise ukuthunyelwa kwawo kwezempi. Njengoba nje i-US inelungelo lokuphepha emanzini ayo asekhaya, kanjalo neChina. I-Beijing nayo kufanele ilahle izimangalo zayo eSouth China Sea futhi ikhiphe izisekelo ezisungule ngokungemthetho. Zombili lezo zinyathelo zizosiza ukudala umoya wesixazululo sobunxusa besifunda ezimangalweni ezedlulanayo zamazwe akulesi sifunda.
Izindleko zokungakwenzi lokhu azicabangeki neze. Esikhathini lapho kudingeka khona izinsiza ezinkulu zokulwa nokushisa komhlaba, amazwe aqongelela izimali zawo zempi futhi asongelana eziqhingini nasezingubeni ezizoba ulwandle oluvulekile maduze nje uma ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungenzeki emhlabeni.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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