Umnikelo omkhulu wombiko "wochwepheshe bangaphakathi" we-Afghanistan Study Group (funda lapha; thumela kubamele bakho kuCongress lapha), ekhishwe ngesonto eledlule ukugqugquzela inkulumo-mpikiswano yaseWashington ekunciphiseni impi emgwaqeni olandelayo ukuthi isincomo sokuqala kakhulu Ingabe lokhu:
1. Gcizelela ukwabiwa kwamandla kanye nokufakwa kwezepolitiki.
I-US kufanele isheshise inqubo yokuthula eklanyelwe ukusabalalisa amandla ngaphakathi kwe-Afghanistan futhi ikhuthaze ukulingana kokwabelana ngamandla phakathi kwezinhlangano eziyinhloko.
Ngokubikezelwa, kubonakala sengathi kube nokuphikisa okubili okuyinhloko kuze kube manje kulesi siphakamiso:
Hewu Nkosi yami. Ungasithatha kanjani isibindi sokuthi i-US kufanele isekele isivumelwano sokuthula nabavukeli base-Afghan. Kufanele ube uhlobo oluthile lwesilo se-amoral.
Ho hum. Akukho okusha lapha. Wonke umuntu useyazi lokhu. Kungani nintela ukubekezela kwethu ngokusho okusobala njengokungathi yisambulo esijulile na? Lokhu sekuvele kuyinqubomgomo yokuphatha. Qhubekani, akukho ongakubona lapha.
Kufanele kuhambe ngaphandle kokusho ukuthi lezi zingxabano ezimbili, njengendaba enengqondo, azifani. Inqubo yokuthula kwangempela eholela enkathini entsha yezombangazwe e-Afghanistan eqeda impi yombango ingaba umqondo omubi kakhulu emlandweni wesintu, noma kungaba indawo evamile wonke umuntu ayazi kakade futhi kakade inqubomgomo yokuphatha. Kodwa ngeke kube kokubili.
Noma ubani obelokhu elandela lolu daba eduze kwemithombo yezindaba yase-US ephrintayo uyazi ukuthi nakuba ukuphikisa kokuqala kuhlobene kancane nempilo njengoba sikwazi kuPlanethi Yomhlaba, ukuphikisa kwesibili, ebusweni bakho, kunokufaneleka okubalulekile. Kuyinto evamile phakathi kwabantu abanolwazi - kuhlanganise nezikhulu eziphezulu zikahulumeni wase-US, njengomphathi wamasosha ethu e-Afghanistan - ukuthi ukuphela kwe-US elindelekile e-Afghanistan akukhona ukunqoba kwezempi kwamasosha ase-US, kodwa inkathi entsha yezombusazwe e-Afghanistan ehlanganisa iningi lalabo manje abasekela ukuvukela umbuso. Izikhulu eziphezulu zaseMelika zisho kaningi ukuthi kuyinqubomgomo yase-US ukweseka ukuxazululwa kwezepolitiki, okuhlanganisa nabaholi bamavukelambuso.
Ngempela, uma umuntu ethi "ukwabelana kwamandla" e-Afghanistan kuwumbono omusha, umuntu angakhomba October 2006 isitatimende kusukela ngaleso sikhathi - Umholi weSenate Majority Republican Bill Frist ukuthi "abantu abazibiza ngamaTaliban" kufanele balethwe kuhulumeni wase-Afghan.
Ngakho-ke, uma othile eqoka Iqembu Lokufunda lase-Afghanistan ukuthola umklomelo okhaliphile osuselwe ekusungulweni kobuhlakani bokwenza lesi sincomo, ngithembisa ukuba ngowokuqala ukwenqaba.
Kodwa iqiniso lokuthi lokhu kuyinto evamile phakathi kwabantu abanolwazi kanye neqiniso lokuthi lokhu kakade kuyinqubomgomo yokuphatha - okungenani ezingeni isicoco - ungaqondile ukuthi ukugcizelela ukuthi i-US kumele ikhuthaze ukubuyisana kwezepolitiki kuzwelonke e-Afghanistan kuwumsebenzi ongabalulekile. Kunalokho, ukwenza ukubuyisana kwezombusazwe kuzwelonke kube inhloso yezombangazwe emaphakathi yenqubomgomo yase-US e-Afghanistan, lapho yonke eminye inqubomgomo ihleliwe, ngokuphambene nalokho isaluthe sokukhuluma ekhona namuhla, wushintsho olumaphakathi lwenqubomgomo yase-US oludingekayo ukuze kuqedwe impi futhi kulethwe amasosha ekhaya.
Iqiniso lokuthi okuthile kuyinqubomgomo esemthethweni ezingeni lokukhuluma alikutsheli lutho ngalokho uhulumeni wase-US empeleni akwenzayo ukuqalisa leyo nqubomgomo. Ayikutsheli lutho ngokuthi ukuqaliswa kwalowo mgomo kumi kuphi ohlwini lwezinto ezibalulekile. Ayikutsheli lutho mayelana nokuthi hlobo luni lokuhwebelana olwenziwayo phakathi kokusebenzisa leyo nqubomgomo nokusebenzisa ezinye izinqubomgomo.
Ukuthi i-US iphishekela ngokujulile kangakanani ukubuyisana kuzwelonke kwezepolitiki e-Afghanistan yinto izingqapheli ezingaphandle kukahulumeni ezingakwazi ukuqiniseka ngayo ngokuphelele. Ukube izikhulu zase-US bezixhumana njalo no-Mullah Omar, siqinisekile ukuthi besizokwazi? Khumbula ukuthi phakathi nezingxoxo zokuthula zaseMadrid ngo-1991, ngenkathi ithimba lakwa-Israel lenza umbukiso omkhulu wokuthi "asisoze saxoxisana ne-PLO, sikhuluma nje nabanye abaholi basePalestina abavela eWest Bank" kanye nabaholi basePalestina ababekhuluma nabo. bebethi, "Siyi-PLO, asiyi endlini yangasese ngaphandle kwemvume evela e-Tunis," uhulumeni wakwa-Israel empeleni wayexoxisana ngesivumelwano ne-PLO e-Oslo.
Kodwa ngokubuka izinqubomgomo ezisetshenziswayo, singakwazi ukwenza izinqumo ezifanele mayelana nokuthi inqubomgomo ilandelwa ngamandla kangakanani, nokuthi imi kuphi ohlwini lwezinto ezibalulekile. Ekukhetheni kwenqubomgomo ngakunye okwenziwe, singabuza: lokhu kukhethwa kwenqubomgomo kusitshelani mayelana nezinto ezibalulekile kuhulumeni?
Izinqumo ezibalulekile zenqubomgomo ezenziwe ngabaPhathi baka-Obama e-Afghanistan - ngaphandle okubalulekile kwesimemezelo sosuku lukaJulayi 2011 oluzoqala ukwehlisa ukwanda kwezempi kwamanje - kubonise ukuthi ukugqugquzela ukubuyisana kuzwelonke e-Afghanistan akuzange kube phezulu ohlwini olubalulekile.
Ikakhulukazi, uma ubuyela emuva kunkulumo-mpikiswano eshicilelwe ngaphakathi kwezokuPhatha phezu kwamanje ukwanda kwezempi, uzothola ukuthi enye yezimpikiswano eziyinhloko ezenziwe ngu Abagxeki bokuphatha ukwanda kwezempi okwakuhlongozwa ngaleso sikhathi kwaba yilokhu: ukwanda kwezempi kungenzeka kwenze ukubuyisana kwezombusazwe e-Afghanistan kube nzima kakhulu. Iqiniso lokuthi ukukhuphuka kwezempi kwakhethwa noma kunjalo libonisa ukuthi ukugqugquzela ukubuyisana kwezombusazwe kwakungeyona into ehamba phambili. Futhi, kubonakala kusobala ukuthi umlando olandelayo ubaveze abagxeki: ukubuyisana kuzwelonke kwezepolitiki e-Afghanistan cishe kunzima kakhulu namuhla kunokuba bekungaba unyaka owedlule, ngaphambi kokukhuphuka kwezempi yase-US.
Isinqumo sonyaka odlule sokukhuphuka kwezempi siyiqiniso elifeziwe. Kodwa singafunda kokuhlangenwe nakho, futhi sisebenzele ukubeka ukubuyisana kwezepolitiki kuzwelonke e-Afghanistan phezulu ohlwini olubalulekile lwase-US.
Ini kungenzeka okwamanje - zingenziwa kuleli sonto - Izinqubomgomo zokuphatha zizohambisana nokwenza ukubuyisana kuzwelonke kube yinto ehamba phambili? Nazi ezintathu.
1. I-Obama Administration ingabonisa ukuthi izimisele ukuvumelana nohlelo lwezikhathi lokuhoxa kwawo wonke amabutho angaphandle e-Afghanistan - okufana nesivumelwano esinaso manje ne-Iraq - njengengxenye yesivumelwano sokuthula.
Ziningi izindlela zokusayina. Akudingekile ukuba kube isimemezelo esisemthethweni. "Isikhulu esiphezulu sezokuphatha" singatshela intatheli ukuthi i-Obama Administration icabanga ngalokhu. AbaseBrithani bangakusho, futhi i-Obama Administration ayikwazanga ukusho lutho. Isikhulu esiphezulu seSenator seDemocratic Alliance esibonakala sisondelene ne-Administration ngenqubomgomo yezangaphandle singakusho lokho, futhi i-Obama Administration ingakwazi ukusho lutho.
Ngokusobala, inhloso eyinhloko yalokhu kuvukela umbuso wukuxosha amabutho angaphandle ezweni. Ngokuthumela lesi sibonakaliso, i-Obama Administration izobe ithi, "Ufuna siphume? Kulungile. Xoxisana nathi, futhi sizohamba. Ngokushesha."
Qaphela ukuthi "i-US kufanele isungule uhlelo lwezikhathi lokuhoxa kwezempi" kakade isikhundla seningi lamaMelika kanye nama-60% e-House Democratic Caucus. Ngakho-ke ngokubonisa ukuzimisela kwayo ukusungula uhlelo lwezikhathi lokuhoxa ngokuphelele kwezempi njengengxenye yesivumelwano sokuthula, i-Obama Administration izobe iphakamisa ukuzimisela kwayo ukuvumelana. njengengxenye yezingxoxo ukwenza lokho iningi labantu baseMelika eselivele lifuna i-US ikwenze noma kungekho kuxoxisana.
2. I-Obama Administration ingabonisa ukuthi izimisele ukuqeda "ukuhlasela kwasebusuku" e-Afghanistan uma izingxoxo ezibucayi ziqala. Ukuhlasela kwasebusuku - okubulala izakhamizi ngokungakhethi futhi okwephula ubungcwele bekhaya lase-Afghan - ngokungangabazeki kuyinqubomgomo yezempi yase-US. abazondwa kakhulu ngombono womphakathi wase-Afghan kanye nohulumeni wase-Afghan, osekunesikhathi eside ethi mabaphele, ngakho-ke ukunikela ngokuziqeda kungaba yisikhuthazo esinamandla sokugqugquzela izingxoxo.
3. I-Obama Administration ingase ibonise ukuthi izimisele "ukwehlisa futhi ekugcineni iqede ukusebenza kwezempi eningizimu ye-Afghanistan" - njengoba kufunwa i-Afghanistan Study Group - ukukhuthaza izingxoxo.
Kuvame ukushiwo ukuthi "izingxoxo azisona isiphetho ngokwazo." Kuyiqiniso ukuthi iphuzu lezingxoxo ukukhiqiza izivumelwano, hhayi ama-photo-ops wokuzizwa kahle. Noma kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi izingxoxo zivame ukukhiqiza izinzuzo ezisheshayo ngisho nakuba izinkinga eziwumsuka okunzima kakhulu azikaxazululwa. Ngezinye izikhathi ziholela ezivumelwaneni zesikhashana, ezingahle zibe ezingahlelekile. "Sisakhuluma awukwenzi uX mina ngeke ngenze uY."
Uma sifuna isibonelo esihle, akudingeki sibheke ngaphandle kwezingxoxo zamanje ze-Israel-Palestine. Lesi yisibonelo esihle ongasithatha kuso, ngoba uma ufuna ukulahla ezingxoxweni zamanje ze-Israel-Palestine, kufanele uthathe inombolo. Ngakho-ke uma ngisho nezingxoxo ezigconwa kabanzi zakwa-Israel-Palestine zikhiqiza okuthile okuhle, lokho kuyisibonelo esinamandla.
Njengamanje i-US icindezela i-Israel kanye ne-Palestinian Authority ukuthi bavumelane ngohlobo oluthile lokuvumelana okunganweba ukumiswa okukhona manje kokwakhiwa kwezindawo zokuhlala zakwa-Israel eWest Bank ngenkathi izingxoxo zisaqhubeka. Imibiko yabezindaba iphakamise ukuthi isivumelwano asifinyeleleki. Ngokusobala, uhulumeni wase-US akaphikisani nezivumelwano zesikhashana njengomgomo.
Yini esingase siyihlanganise nesivumelwano sesikhashana esiwusizo nabavukeli base-Afghan? Ake sithi ihlanganisa isivumelwano sase-US sokuqeda ukugasela ebusuku, ukuze kube nesivumelwano samavukela-mbuso sokuvikela izikole kanye nezisebenzi zosizo. Ngokombono wezakhamizi zase-Afghan, isivumelwano esinjalo singaba impumelelo: i-US ingavuma ukubulala izakhamizi ezimbalwa zase-Afghan, ukuze kube khona ukuvukela umbuso okuvuma ukubulala izakhamuzi ezimbalwa zase-Afghan. Uma isivumelwano esinjalo singafinyelelwa, kungaba yini impikiswano yokuziphatha yokusiphikisa?
Izingxoxo zingaletha ezinye izinzuzo ezisheshayo, ngisho nangaphambi kokuba ziphumele esivumelwaneni.
Impi engapheli iqinisa amandla ezombusazwe abaholi abenza impi. Izingxoxo ziqinisa amandla abadlali bezepolitiki. Izingxoxo zivela ezindabeni: kufanele usho lokho okufunayo, nalokho ozimisele ukukwamukela. Njengamanje, akekho, ngisho nesikhulu sikahulumeni wase-US, esingasho ngokucacile ukuthi i-US ifunani ngempela e-Afghanistan, nalokho i-US ezimisele ukukwamukela. Yini ngempela amaTaliban ayifunayo, noma azimisele ukwamukela, ngaphandle kokuxosha amabutho angaphandle, kube yinkulumompikiswano eshubile. Izingxoxo zibhebhethekisa abantu. Kufanele usho lokho okufunayo, nalokho ozimisele ukukwamukela.
Futhi-ke, lapho izikhundla zangempela ziqala ukwembulwa, ziba isihloko senkulumompikiswano yezombangazwe nengcindezi yezombangazwe. Uma iphuzu elinamathelayo ezingxoxweni kuvela ukuthi i-US ngeke iqede ukugasela ebusuku, noma ivume uhlelo lwezikhathi lokuhoxiswa kwamasosha angaphandle, noma ivume ukuguqulwa komthethosisekelo wase-Afghan ukuze kuguqulwe isimo samanje. okungenangqondo kanye nenkohlakalo-okugqugquzela ukuhlanganisa amandla (bekuzohamba kanjani uma umbusi wezwe lakho eqokwa uMongameli?) lokho kuzocaca, futhi kuvezwe i-US ecindezelweni lezombusazwe. Ngokufanayo, uma into ebambekayo ezingxoxweni iwukuthi abaholi abahlubukayo ngeke bavume ukuvikela izikole noma abasebenzi bosizo, noma bavume ukwabelana ngamandla nabancane abangewona ama-Pashtun, wonke umuntu uzobona ukuthi abaholi abahlubukayo yibona ababangela ukubhidlika yizingxoxo, bebachaya ekucindezelweni kwezepolitiki okuvela ezicini zesizinda sabo sePashtun abafuna ukuqeda impi.
Futhi, uma ufuna isibonelo esihle salokhu, bheka izingxoxo zamanje ze-Israel-Palestine. Emasontweni ambalwa edlule, abalingisi nezifundiswa zakwa-Israel baba sematheni emhlabeni jikelele ngesikhathi bekhipha isitatimende bethi bazokwenqaba ukucula noma ukubamba iqhaza ezingqungqutheleni ezizoba semijondolo yakwa-Israel eWest Bank, ukuze kungabi semthethweni ukuhlaliswa kwabantu. Yayiyini ingqikithi yepolitiki lapho abalingisi nezifundiswa zakwa-Israel benza khona lesi senzo sezepolitiki esinesibindi nesiyimpumelelo? Bekuwukuqalwa kabusha kwezingxoxo zokuthula, lapho ukuhlaliswa kwabantu kuyisihluthulelo sokunamathela. Ukuqalwa kabusha kwezingxoxo zokuthula kwanikeza abalingisi nezifundiswa zakwa-Israel inkundla yezepolitiki lapho bengathi: โThina Israyeliis angazifuni izindawo zokuhlala noma."
Futhi lokhu, omunye okusolakala ngokuphusile, kuyisizathu esibalulekile sokuthi kungani amasosha kuwo wonke amazwe evame ukubonisa ukuphikisa okukhulu kunoma yiziphi izingxoxo. Ngisho nokuqala kwezingxoxo ezingezinhle kususa ukunaka kodlame kuye kwezombusazwe, futhi kudala amathuba enhlangano yezepolitiki. Kuhlale kunengozi, ngokombono walabo abaphikisana nanoma yikuphi ukuvumelana, ukuthi ukuvumelana kungase kungenzeki kangako njengoba bebezama ukwenza wonke umuntu akholwe, nokuthi ukuqala kwenqubo yokuxoxisana kungase kwenyuse ingcindezi yezombangazwe ukuyekethisa.
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Nikela