Umthombo: TomDispatch.com
Yebo, ngesinye isikhathi ngangivame ukufunda izinganekwane zesayensi futhi ngicabange ngekusasa elimangalisayo, kodwa ikakhulukazi okwesabekayo. Yini enye ongayicabanga, uma ufunda eka-H.G. Wells War of the Worlds ngaphansi kwekhava ngethoshi kuyilapho abazali bakho becabanga ukuthi ulele? Vele, leyo noveli yayiyinganekwane yekusasa, ebandakanya njengoba kwenza amaMartians afika eLondon ezokhipha ubuntu. Eminyakeni engamashumi ayisithupha nesishiyagalolunye ngemva kokufunda leyo ncwadi ngasese futhi ngizibuza ngekusasa elizoba ngelami ngolunye usuku, ngiphila, kubonakala sengathi, kulo kanye lelokusasa, nokho-ke kungaba ngaphansi kukaMartian. Noma kunjalo, uma kwenzeka ungaqaphelanga, umzuzu wethu wamanje ungacatshangwa kalula njengomunye wenoveli eqanjiwe yesayensi ukuthi, ngisho ngiseneminyaka yami, ngingathanda ukungafundi ngethoshi ebumnyameni bobusuku.
Ngisho ukuthi, ngangingakaze ngibe munye lapho iHiroshima ichithwa ibhomu leathomu elilodwa. Ngokuhlukana kwesikhashana kanye nefu lamakhowe elalandela, amandla embubhiso yangempela ake ahlala ezandleni zonkulunkulu kuphela (futhi mhlawumbe nababhali bezinganekwane zesayensi) aba ingxenye yansuku zonke yomhlaba wethu ongabantu. Kusukela ngalolo suku kuqhubeke, kwakungenzeka ukuba sicabange ukuthi thinaโhhayi amaMartians noma onkulunkuluโsingakuqeda konke. Kwaba nokwenzeka ukucabanga ukuthi thina ngokwethu siyi-apocalypse. Futhi usinike udumo. Uma empeleni singakenzi kanjalo, futhi asikenzi umsebenzi omubi uma kuziwa ekulungiseleleni indlela yesiphetho esinjalo somlando wesintu.
Ake sikubeke ngombono lokhu. Onyakeni wobhubhane ka-2020, eminyakeni engama-76 ngemuva kwamabhomu amabili e-athomu aseMelika ashiya amadolobha Hiroshima futhi Nagasaki emlotheni, amandla enuzi emhlabeni empeleni ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwemali ngezikhali zenuzi ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.4 ngaphezu kwalokho ababekubeke ngonyaka owandulele. Futhi lokho kukhula bekuyiphesenti elincane kuphela lokutshalwa kwezimali okuqhubekayo kwalawo mazwe ayisishiyagalolunye - yebo, ayisishiyagalolunye - ezinqolobaneni zawo zezikhali zenuzi ezikhulayo. Okubi nakakhulu, uma kungenzeka ungowaseMelika, ngaphezu kwengxenye yayo yonke โyokutshalwa kwezimaliโ kuka-2020 kwezikhali ezifanele izimo ezizophela umhlaba, amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-37.4 ukuba abe ngqo, yehliswe izwe lethu. (Ukumangala $ 13.3 billion yanikezwa umenzi wezikhali uNorthrop Grumman yedwa ukuba aqale ukwakhiwa komcibisholo omusha we-intercontinental ballistic, noma i-ICBM, into eyodwa ngokusobala eyidingayo izwe lethu elinezinkathazo.) Sekukonke, leyo mibuso eyisishiyagalolunye yenuzi yachitha isilinganiso esilinganiselwe $137,000 umzuzu ngo-2020 "wokuthuthukisa" izikhali zabo - lezo, uma zike zasetshenziswa, ezingaqeda umlando njengoba siwazi.
Othulini Lomlando Wokufa
Ake ucabange nje ukube yonke leyo mali ibinikezelwe ekudaleni nasekusabalaliseni imithi yokugoma iningi labantu bomhlaba, okwamanje uthole izithombe ezinjalo futhi utakulwe ekulimaleni kwe-Covid-19, uqobo a okubulalayo, iphupho elibi lesitayela se-sci-fi ye-oda lokuqala. Kodwa ngingayicabanga kanjani into enjalo lapho, emashumini eminyaka selokhu leli zwe lalahla lelo bhomu lokuqala le-athomu eHiroshima, selifunde izifundo zalo ze-athomu kahle kakhulu? Ngaphandle kwalokho, kungani abaholi bayo manje sebehlela ukuzinikela okungenani $ 1.7 isigidintathu emashumini amathathu eminyaka alandelayo ukuze "kwenziwe isimanje" yini kakade izikhali zenuzi zanamuhla emhlabeni?
Ake ngingeze nje ukuthi mina wavakashela UHiroshima wake wakanye nozakwabo waseJapan owayezalelwe esiqhingini esingasogwini lweNagasaki ebhujiswe nge-athomu. Ngo-1982, wangiyisa e- IHiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, okuthi, naphezu kokubonisa ingane ene-carbonized isikhafithini futhi yanyatheliswa unomphela ithunzi lomuntu, ngokusobala inganikeza isivakashi inkomba nje yokuthi kwakunjani ngempela ukuzwa ukuphela komhlaba, ngenxa yebhomu elilodwa. Futhi nokho ngathola okuhlangenwe nakho kungikhathaza kakhulu kangangokuthi, lapho ngibuyela ekhaya eNew York City, ngangingakwazi ukukhuluma ngakho.
Kuyavunywa, nakuba amazwe ayisishiyagalolunye manje esenezikhali zenuzi, amaningi awo anamandla kakhulu kunebhomu elilodwa elaguqula iHiroshima yaba indawo eyimvithi, alikho nelilodwa elake lasetshenziswa empini. Futhi lokho kufanele kubhekwe njengesimangaliso emhlabeni lapho, uma kuziwa endabeni yezikhali nempi, izimangaliso zanoma yiluphi uhlobo zivame ukuba zimbalwa futhi ziqhelelane phakathi. Ngemuva kwakho konke, kulinganiselwa ukuthi, ngo-2020, leli zwe kuphela lalinakho Ngaphezu kwe-5,000 izikhali zenuzi, okungenani i-1,300 yazo isetshenzisiwe futhi ilungele ukusetshenziswa - ngokwanele, okungukuthi, ukubhubhisa imihlaba eminingana.
Cabanga-ke njengokuxaka komyalelo wokuqala ukuthi abaholi base-US bachithe iminyaka kugxile ekuzameni ukuvimbela abantu base-Irani ekwenzeni isikhali esisodwa senuzi, kodwa hhayi usuku, hhayi ihora, hhayi umzuzwana ekugcineni leli zwe lingakwazi ukukhiqiza ezinye zazo kanye nezinhlelo zokulethwa ezizosabalalisa noma yikuphi kule planethi. . Ngaleso sizathu, cabanga nje, ngokwesibonelo, ukuthi, ngo-2021, i-US ilungiselela ukutshala imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-100 ekukhiqizeni i-ICBM entsha, izindleko zayo zizonke "isikhathi sokuphila" sayo (yize mhlawumbe igama elifanele lingaba "isikhathi sokufa". โ) isivele ihlongozwa ngo $ 264 billion - futhi lokho kungaphambi kokuba izindleko ziqale. Konke lokhu okwesikhathi esizayo ukuthi... kuhle, ukuqagela kwakho kuhle njengami.
Noma cabanga ukuthi, muva nje, izinhloko zezwe zaseMelika naseRussia, amazwe amabili anezikhali zenuzi ezinkulu kakhulu, wahlangana e-Geneva, e-Switzerland, futhi bakhulume amahora amaningi, ikakhulukazi mayelana ne-cyberwar, kuyilapho bechitha isikhathi esincane esincomekayo becabanga ukuthi bangazibamba kanjani izikhali zabo ezibhubhisa kakhulu futhi baqondise iplanethi ekusaseni ledenuclear.
Futhi khumbula ukuthi konke lokhu kwenzeka emhlabeni lapho manje sekuwulwazi oluvamile lwesayensi ukuthi ngisho nempi yenuzi phakathi kwemibuso emibili yesifunda, i-India ne-Pakistan, ingaphonsa izinhlayiya eziningi emkhathini ukuze zenze impi. ubusika benyukliya kule planethi, omunye kungenzeka zibulale izigidigidi yethu. Ngamanye amazwi, impi eyodwa kuphela yesifunda yenuzi ingashiya isiphithiphithi nokwethuka kobhubhane lwe-Covid-19 othulini olungathandeki lomlando wokufa.
I-Slow-Motion Hiroshima?
Futhi nokho, nansi into exakile kunazo zonke: sisaqiniseka ukuthi, kusukela kwabhujiswa i-Hiroshima ne-Nagasaki, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi zingakanani izikhali eziqeda umhlaba ezigcinwe yi-China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan. , eRussia, e-United Kingdom, nase-United States, alikho elike lasetshenziswa. Ngeshwa, lokho kufanele kubonakale ngokwandayo njengenganekwane ye-Martian ye-oda lokuqala.
Nakuba kungavamile ukucatshangwa ngaleyo ndlela, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kufanele kucatshangelwe kabusha njengokufana nokuqothulwa kwezikhali zenuzi ezihamba kancane. I-Hiroshima yenzeka ngemizuzwana engokoqobo, ukukhanya okuphuphuthekisa okukodwa kokushisa. Ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuzoba indaba yeminyaka, amashumi eminyaka, ngisho namakhulu eminyaka okushisa.
Leso simo esibhubhisayo kakhulu saqalwa ngekhulu leshumi nesishiyagalolunye ngokushiswa kwamalahle okwakuhambisana nenguquko yezimboni, okokuqala eGreat Britain kwase kuba kwenye indawo emhlabeni jikelele. Iqhubeka kuphela kuyo yonke le minyaka ngenxa yokushiswa, ngaphezu kwakho konke, kwamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi - uwoyela negesi yemvelo - kanye nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni (ne-methane) emkhathini. Endabeni yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, awekho ama-ICBM, cha imikhumbi-ngwenya ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi, awekho amabhomu enuzi. Esikhundleni salokho, kunezinkampani zikawoyela negesi yemvelo, ama-CEO azo, asekelwa njalo ohulumeni, afakazele ukuthi akulungele ukucekela phansi lo mhlaba ukuze athole inzuzo. Bazimisele ngokuphelele ukushisa amafutha emvelo endaweni imfashini yobugebengu kuze kube, ngokwezwi nezwi, ekupheleni kwesikhathi. Okubi nakakhulu, bona ngokuvamile wayazi ukuthi hlobo luni lomonakalo ababewudala kudala ngaphambi kwabaningi bethu futhi, ekuphenduleni, isekelwe ngokuqhubekayo ukuphika isimo sezulu.
Cha, lalingekho ifu lamakhowe, kodwa kunalokho โifuโ lamagesi abamba ukushisa avela phakathi neminyaka engapheli ngaphandle kokubona komuntu. Noma kunjalo, masibhekane nakho, kule planethi yethu, hhayi ngo-2031 noma 2051 noma 2101 kodwa khona kanye lesi sikhathi, sesiqala ukuzwa okulingana nempi yenuzi ehamba kancane.
Ngomqondo othile, sesivele siphila enguqulweni yesimanje ye-slo-mo ye-Hiroshima, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi sikuphi noma sihambe kuphi. Njengamanje, njengoba kunesomiso esishubile esihlasela iNtshonalanga naseNingizimu-ntshonalanga, okungakaze kube khona okufana naso okungenani iminyaka 1,200, phakathi kwamakhandidethi aphezulu e-American Hiroshima kuzoba Phoenix (ama-118 degrees), Las Vegas (114 degrees), iSigodi Sokufa esiqanjwe ngokufanelekile (amadigri angu-128), Palm Springs (123 degrees), kanye Salt Lake City (107), wonke amazinga okushisa arekhodiwe kule sizini. Umbiko wakamuva iphakamisa ukuthi amazinga okushisa e-Yellowstone National Park edumile manje asephezulu noma ephakeme kunanoma isiphi isikhathi eminyakeni engu-20,000 edlule (futhi mhlawumbe eminyakeni engu-800,000 edlule). Futhi amazinga okushisa e-Oregon naseWashington asevele ekhona Ukuphakama ngemfashini erekhodiwe nokuningi okuzayo, noma kunjalo inkathi yomlilo ngaphesheya kweNtshonalanga ifika ngaphambi kwesikhathi futhi ngonya kakhulu unyaka ngamunye. Njengoba ngibhala lokhu, ngokwesibonelo, isifunda saseCalifornia Big Sur khanyisa ngendlela ephawulekayo, phakathi kwenani elikhulayo lemililo yasentshonalanga. Ngaphansi kwezimo, okuxakayo ngokwanele, esinye sezizathu kuphela amarekhodi athile okushisa kungenzeka kufanele kubekwe ukuthi intuthu evala ilanga evela kuleyo mililo ingase icindezele ukushisa ngandlela-thile.
Kufanele wazi ukuthi ukwenye iplanethi lapho ngisho nemithombo yezindaba esakazwa kakhulu iqala ukubeka ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu ezingxenyeni zezemvelo, njengakulo musho wokuqala wakamuva we Umbiko we-CNN: โIzithombe ezimangalisayo zeLake Mead eseliphelile, emngceleni weNevada-Arizona, zibonisa imiphumela yesomiso esibangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu.โ
Ungase futhi ucabange ama-Hiroshimas ethu esimanje endaweni Izinkinobho zeFlorida, lapho amazinga olwandle akhuphuka ngokungenakuvinjelwa, ngenxa yokuncibilika okukhulu kweqhwa eGreenland nase-Antarctica, kakade asongela leyo ngxenye ephansi kakhulu yaleso sifunda esiseningizimu. Noma mhlawumbe iGulf Coast ingafaneleka, njengoba amanzi ashisayo ase-Atlantic ayakha manje irekhodi izinkathi ezishisayo neziphepho, njengokushisa nemililo eNtshonalanga, kubonakala sengathi fika ngaphambi kwesikhathi unyaka ngamunye. (Elinye idolobha laseFlorida, iMiami, selivele licabanga isakhiwo udonga olukhulu lwasolwandle ukuze lizivikele eziphephweni ezibhubhisayo zesikhathi esizayo.)
Kulolu hlobo lwempi yenuzi olude kakhulu, konke okwenzekayo kuleli zwe (futhi ngendlela efanayo emhlabeni jikelele, kusukela e-Australia. imililo yequbula enomlando enonya ekushiseni kwakamuva ku- Persian Gulf, lapho izinga lokushisa lingaphezu kwama-degree angu-125) lizokhula ngokwedlulele nakakhulu, ngisho noma, ngesimangaliso esithile, lezo zikhali zenuzi zigcinwa ziyimfihlo. Phela, ngokocwaningo olusha lwe-NASA, iplanethi ibilokhu ibambekile ukushisa okwengeziwe kunalokho obekucatshangwa kuleli khulu leminyaka kuze kube manje. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uhlaka olusanda kuvezwa lwe-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change umbiko luphakamisa ukuthi ikusasa lethu lokushisa ngokweqile lizokhula libe libi kakhulu ngezindlela ezazingakaze zicatshangwe ngaphambili. Amaphuzu okunikeza izeluleko ingase ifinyelelweโkusukela ekuncibilikeni kwezingqimba zeqhwa ne-Arctic permafrost (idedela inqwaba ye-methane emkhathini) kuye ekuguquleni ingxenye enkulu yehlathi lase-Amazon libe i-savannahโokungathinta ukuphila kwezingane zethu nabazukulu ngendlela edabukisayo. amashumi eminyaka ezayo. Futhi kungaba njalo ngisho noma ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kulawulwa ngokushesha.
Emandulo, ubani owayengacabanga ukuthi isintu sasiyozuza ifa lezinhlobo zamandla embubhiso ayeshiyelwe konkulunkulu ngaphambili noma ukuthi, lapho ekugcineni siwaqaphela, sasingeke sikwazi ukusabela ngendlela esabekayo? Ngisho noma esinye isikhali senuzi singakaze sisetshenziswe, siyakwazi, ngendlela yokuhamba kancane, ukwenza izingxenye ezibalulekile zomhlaba wethu zingahlali muntu - noma, ngenxa yalokho, uma singathatha isinyathelo ngokushesha, sigcine okungenani indawo yokuhlala endaweni ekude. esizayo.
Cabanga nje, njengesiqalo esithobekile, iplanethi lapho yonke idola elibekelwe izikhali zenuzi lizotshalwa kusethi eluhlaza yezixazululo zomhlaba okhula unyaka nonyaka ufudumale, ubomvu kakhulu, ongahlali muntu.
I-copyright 2021 Tom Engelhardt
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