Esinye isizathu esenza ukuthi i-Washington Esemthethweni iqhubeke nokugcizelela ukuthi uMongameli wase-Syria u-Bashar al-Assad “kumele ahambe” ukuthi kucatshangwa ukuthi “wadubula abantu bakhe” nge-sarin ngo-Aug. 21, 2013, kodwa iqiniso lalezo zinsolo alikaze litholakale futhi liwukuthi ekungabazeni okukhulayo, omakadebona kwezobunhloli base-U.S. babonisa. [Ibuyekezwe ngoDisemba 23 nabasanda kusayina.]
IMEMORANDAMU YA: UNobhala Wezwe waseMelika uJohn Kerry, kanye noNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseRussia uSergey Lavrov
KUSUKA: I-Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
ISIHLOKO: Ukuhlasela kwe-Sarin e-Ghouta ngo-Aug. 21, 2013
Phakathi ku Imemorandamu ka-Okt. 1, 2013, sicele ngamunye wenu ukuthi aveze obala ubuhlakani enisekelwe phezu kwabo iziphetho zenu ezihlukene ekutheni ubani owenze i-sarin chemical attack e-Ghouta, ngaphandle kwaseDamaseku ngomhla ka-Aug. 21, 2013. Ngo-Dec. 10, 2015, Eren Erdem, a Ilungu lephalamende eTurkey, licaphuna imibhalo esemthethweni, lisole iTurkey ngokwenza lula ukulethwa kwe-sarin kumavukelambuso eSyria.
Mnu. Kerry, ubusole uhulumeni waseSyria. Mnu. Lavrov, uchaze i-sarin “njengeyenziwe ekhaya” futhi uphakamise ukuthi amavukelambuso amelene nohulumeni ayenecala. Ngamunye wenu wathi unobufakazi obugculisayo bokusekela isiphetho sakho.
Akekho kini owasabela ngokuqondile esicelweni sethu sokwenza ubufakazi obunjalo butholakale emphakathini, nakuba, Mnu. Lavrov, wasondela ekwenzeni kanjalo. Phakathi ku inkulumo
e-UN ngoSepthemba 26, 2013, wenze inkomba emibonweni esiyethule kwethi Imemorandamu ye-VIPS, Ingabe i-Syria iyisicupho?, eyathunyelwa kuMongameli Obama emasontweni amathathu ngaphambili.
Ukhomba ukungabaza okunamandla phakathi kochwepheshe bezikhali zamakhemikhali mayelana nobufakazi obethulwa ukusola uhulumeni waseSyria ngokuhlaselwa kwe-sarin, ubuye wabhekisa “encwadini evulekile eyathunyelwa kuMongameli u-Obama ngabasebenzi bangaphambili be-CIA kanye nePentagon,” lapho sizwakalise khona. ukungabaza okufanayo.
UMnu. Kerry, ngo-Aug. 30, 2013, usole uhulumeni wase-Syria, esidlangalaleni nangokuphindaphindiwe, ngokuhlaselwa kwe-sarin. Kodwa uhlulekile ukukhiqiza uhlobo “lwe-Intelligence Assessment” ojwayele ukusetshenziselwa ukusekela izimangalo ezinjalo.
Sikholelwa ukuthi lokhu kuntuleka okungavamile "kokuhlola ubuhlakani" okuhlelekile kuchazwa iqiniso lokuthi ozakwethu bangaphambili abazange bakholelwe ukuthi ubufakazi bubonisa ukuthi amacala akho afaneleka nokuthi, ngenxa yalokho, bamelana nengcindezi yokuthi "balungise ubuhlakani obumayelana nenqubomgomo," njengoba kwakunjalo. kwenziwe "ukuthethelela" ukuhlaselwa kwe-Iraq.
Abahlaziyi bezobuNhloli bebesitshela ngasese (futhi sitshele uMengameli kwethi Imemorandamu kaSept. 6, 2013) ukuthi, ngokuphambene nalokho enikushilo, “ubuhlakani obuthembeke kakhulu bukhombisa ukuthi uBashar al-Assad hhayi obhekene nesigameko samakhemikhali esabulala futhi salimaza izakhamuzi zaseSyria ngo-Agasti 21."
Lokhu kuphikisana okunezimiso kulaba bahlaziyi ngokusobala kwaholela i-White House ukuba yakhe uhlobo olusha lobuciko, "Ukuhlola Kukahulumeni," ukuze kudluliselwe izimangalo zokuthi uhulumeni waseDamaseku nguye owabangela ukuhlaselwa kwe-sarin. Kwakuyinqaba ngokufanayo ukuthi uhlobo olusha lombiko alunikezanga nento eyodwa yobufakazi obungaqinisekiswa.
(Siyaqaphela ukuthi usebenzise leli fomu lobuciko elisha elithi “Ukuhlola Kukahulumeni (hhayi Ubuhlakani)” okwesibili – futhi ngokusobala ukuze ugweme ukuphikisa kwabahlaziyi bezobunhloli. Ngomhla zingama-22 kuJulayi, 2014, ezinsukwini ezinhlanu nje ngemva kokudutshulwa kwe-Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. , ngemva kokuba abezindaba benicelile ukuba niqhamuke nobufakazi obusekela amacala owabeka ngokumelene “nabahlukanisi abasekela iRussia” ohlelweni lwezingxoxo lwangeSonto lwango-July 20, uqhamuke nelesibili, kokubili kuphela, elithi “Ukuhlola Kukahulumeni.” Njengalokhu ekuhlaselweni kwamakhemikhali eSyria, ukuhlolwa kunikeze imali encane uma kuziwa ebufakazini obungaqinisekiswa.)
Izimangalo kanye Nezimangalo Eziphikisayo
Ekhuluma ne-United Nations General Assembly ngo-September 24, 2013, uMongameli Obama wagomela: “Kuwukwedelela ukucabanga kwabantu nokuba semthethweni kwalesi sikhungo ukusikisela ukuthi noma ubani ngaphandle kombuso [waseSiriya] owenze lokhu kuhlasela [eGhouta. ].”
UMnu. Lavrov, ngalo lolo suku wakhononda esidlangalaleni ngokuthi izikhulu zase-U.S. zazilokhu zithi “‘umbuso waseSyria,’ njengoba bewubiza kanjalo, unecala lokusebenzisa izikhali zamakhemikhali, ngaphandle kokunikeza ubufakazi obuphelele.” Ezinsukwini ezimbili kamuva watshela i-U.N. General Assembly ukuthi unikeze uMnu. Kerry "inhlanganisela yakamuva yobufakazi, obekuwukuhlaziywa kolwazi olutholakala esidlangalaleni." Uphinde watshela iWashington Post, “Lobu bufakazi akuyona into eguquguqukayo. Iyatholakala ku-inthanethi.”
Ku-inthanethi? Mnu. Kerry, uma abasebenzi bakho bagweme ukukubizela imibiko ye-inthanethi mayelana nokubamba iqhaza kwe-Turkish ekuhlaselweni kwe-sarin kwangomhla ka-Aug. 21, 2013, ngenxa yokuthi bangenayo isiqinisekiso, sikholwa ukuthi manje usungayibheka njengeqinisekisiwe kakhulu.
Ubufakazi Obubhaliwe
Ekhuluma namalungu akanye nawo ephalamende ngomhla ka-Dec. 10, 2015, iLungu lePhalamende laseTurkey u-Eren Erdem ovela ku-Republican People’s Party (iqembu eliphikisayo elinomthwalo wemfanelo ngokunengqondo) wabhekana nohulumeni waseTurkey ngalolu daba olubalulekile. Enyakazisa ikhophi "Yenombolo Yecala Lobugebengu 2013/120," u-Erdem ubhekisele emibikweni esemthethweni kanye nobufakazi be-elekthronikhi obuqopha umsebenzi wokushushumbisa ngokuhambisana nohulumeni waseTurkey.
Engxoxweni ne-RT ezinsukwini ezine kamuva, u-Erdem uthe iziphathimandla zaseTurkey zithole ubufakazi bokuthunyelwa kwegesi i-sarin kumavukelambuso amelene nohulumeni eSyria, futhi azenzanga lutho ukuwavimba.
Umshushisi Omkhulu edolobheni laseTurkey i-Adana uvule icala lobugebengu, futhi icala lathi "izingxenye zezikhali zamakhemikhali" ezivela eYurophu "kwakumele zithunyelwe ngaphandle komthungo ngomzila onqunyiwe onqamula eTurkey ziyiswe ezindaweni zezidlamlilo eSyria." U-Erdem uveze ubufakazi obuthinta uNgqongqoshe Wezobulungiswa waseTurkey kanye ne-Turkish Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation ekushushumbisweni kwe-sarin.
Umsebenzi
Ngokusho kuka-Erdem, abasolwa abangu-13 ababoshelwe ukugasela abaqambi itulo badedelwa ngemuva kwesonto elilodwa bebekwe amacala, icala lavalwa - lavalwa yizikhulu eziphezulu. U-Erdem utshele i-RT ukuthi ukuhlasela kwe-sarin e-Ghouta kwenzeka ngemva nje kokuvalwa kwecala lobugebengu nokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ukuhlasela kwenziwa ama-jihadists ngegesi ye-sarin eshushumbiswe eTurkey.
Akumangalisi ukuthi uMongameli Erdogan usole u-Erdem "ngokuvukela umbuso." Kwakungelona “icala” lokuqala lika-Erdem. Phambilini, wadalula inkohlakalo yamalungu omndeni wakwa-Erdogan, iphephandaba likahulumeni elimbiza ngokuthi “unodoli waseMelika, umenzeli wakwa-Israel, umsekeli wamaphekula i-PKK kanye nomgqugquzeli wokuketula umbuso.
NgoSepthemba 6, 2013 wethu Imemorandamu kaMongameli, sibike ukuthi imihlangano yokuxhumanisa yenzekile emasontweni ambalwa ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwe-sarin endaweni yamasosha aseTurkey e-Antakya - amakhilomitha angu-15 nje ukusuka emngceleni waseSiriya neSiriya kanye namamayela angu-55 ukusuka edolobheni elikhulu kunawo wonke, i-Aleppo.
E-Antakya, izikhulu eziphezulu zezobunhloli zaseTurkey, Qatari kanye ne-US kuthiwa zixhumanisa izinhlelo namavukelambuso axhaswe ngabaseNtshonalanga, abatshelwe ukuthi balindele ukwanda okuseduze kwempi ngenxa "yentuthuko eshintsha impi." Lokhu-ke kwakuzoholela ekuqhunyisweni kwebhomu okuholwa yi-US eSyria, futhi abaphathi bamavukelambuso bayalwa ukuba balungise amabutho abo ngokushesha ukuze baxhaphaze ukuqhuma kwamabhomu, bamashele eDamaseku, futhi basuse uhulumeni wase-Assad.
Ngonyaka odlule, i- I-New York Times ibike ukuthi indawo yase-Antakya isiphenduke “umazibuthe wamajihadi angaphandle, athutheleka eTurkey ukuyolwa impi engcwele eSyria.” Iphephandaba i-Times licaphune ilungu eliphikisayo laseSyria elizinze e-Antakya, lithi amaphoyisa aseTurkey abezulazula kule ndawo emngceleni “evale amehlo.”
Futhi, uMnu. Lavrov, ngenkathi i-akhawunti eyanikezwa u-Eren Erdem ngaphambi kwePhalamende laseTurkey ibeka amacala akhe kwirekhodi elisemthethweni, ukusesha okulula kwe-Google okuhlanganisa "i-Antakya" kubonisa ukuthi uqinisile lapho usho I-inthanethi iqukethe ingcebo yemininingwane yangaleso sikhathi ukusekela ukudalulwa kuka-Erdem.
UMnu. Kerry, ngenkathi eseMoscow ngo-Dec. 15, uthe kumxoxi waseRussia ukuthi uMongameli waseSyria u-Assad "udubule abantu bakhe - ngisho ukuthi, igesi ayikaze isetshenziswe ezimpini ngokusemthethweni - ngoba - futhi igesi ayivumelekile, kodwa u-Assad wayisebenzisa."
Ezinsukwini ezintathu kamuva iThe Washington Post iphinde yaliphinda ngokufanelekile icala ngokubulala kuka-Assad "abantu bakhe ngezikhali zamakhemikhali." Imithombo yezindaba yase-U.S. yenze lokhu kwaba ukuhlakanipha okuvamile. Abantu baseMelika abakaziwa ngokugcwele. Akukaze kube nemibiko yemithombo yezindaba ejwayelekile ngokudalulwa kweLungu lePhalamende laseTurkey u-Erdem.
Isikhalazo Esivuselelwe
Siyakucela futhi, uNobhala u-Kerry kanye noNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle u-Lavrov, ukuthi ubeke irekhodi ngqo kulolu daba olubalulekile. Nobabili nibonise ikhono lokusebenza ndawonye ezindabeni ezibalulekile - isivumelwano senuzi sase-Iran, isibonelo - futhi niye navuma intshisekelo efanayo yokunqoba i-ISIS, ngokusobala hhayi Okubaluleke kakhulu kukaMongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan. Ngempela, izinhloso zakhe ziyizinjongo ezahlukene kulabo abafisa ukuqeda udlame eSyria.
Ngemva kokudutshulwa komhlaseli wamabhomu waseRussia ngoNovemba 24, uMongameli u-Vladimir Putin wabeka amabutho aseRussia esimweni sokuziphindiselela ngokuzayo, futhi watshela izikhulu eziphezulu zezokuvikela, “Noma yiziphi izinhloso ezisongela iqembu lethu [lamasosha] noma ingqalasizinda yomhlaba kufanele zibhujiswe ngokushesha. ” Sikholelwa ukuthi isexwayiso kufanele sithathwe ngokungathi sína. Okubalulekile, nokho, yilokho u-Erdogan akukholelwayo.
Kunethuba elihle ukuthi u-Erdogan uzosichitha isixwayiso sikaPutin, inqobo nje uma umongameli waseTurkey ekholelwa ukuthi angancika ku-NATO njalo ukuthi asabele ngendlela esekelayo ngemuva kokudubula.
Enye indlela ephathekayo yokumqeda umqondo anawo ikhadi le-blanche ukudala izehlakalo ezingeke zibeke iTurkey kuphela, kodwa futhi i-US, onqenqemeni lokungqubuzana kwezikhali neRussia, kungaba uNobhala Wezwe wase-US kanye noNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseRussia ukuxhumanisa isitatimende kulokho esikholelwa ukuthi kwakungamanga wakudala- hlaba umkhosi wamakhemikhali ngo-Aug. 21, 2013, ogqugquzelwa abaseTurkey futhi okuhloswe ngawo ukubamba amagundane uMongameli Obama ekuhlaseleni okukhulu eSyria.
Omunye wozakwethu, umhlaziyi osemnkantshubomvu wezindaba zaseTurkey, wakubeka ngale ndlela: “U-Erdogan uyingozi nakakhulu uma ecabanga ukuthi manje unelayisensi ye-NATO yokuyenga iRussia - njengoba enza ngokudubula. Angicabangi ukuthi i-NATO izimisele ukumnika lelo layisensi ebanzi, kodwa uyinganono exegayo.”
EQEQENI LOKUPHATHA, OCHWEPHESHE BOKUHLAKANIPHA ABAMAkadebona BOKUGCINWA
Graham E. Fuller, iPhini likaSihlalo, uMkhandlu Kazwelonke Wezobunhloli (ohleli phansi.)
UFilip Giraldi, i-CIA, isikhulu sokusebenza (i-ret.)
U-Larry Johnson, we-CIA kanye noMnyango Wezwe (ophindelelayo)
UJohn Kiriakou, Owayeyisikhulu seCIA Counterterrorism
Edward Loomis, NSA, Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)
UDavid MacMichael, uMkhandlu Wezobuhlakani Kazwelonke (i-ret.)
URay McGovern, owayeyisikhulu samasosha ase-US Army / intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.)
U-Elizabeth Murray, iPhini Lesikhulu Sikazwelonke Sezobunhloli e-Near East, uMkhandlu Kazwelonke Wezobunhloli (uphindele emuva)
Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, ummeli wejaji wase-US (Ret.)
UScott Ritter, owayeyi-Maj., i-USMC, owayengumhloli we-UN Weapon, e-Iraq
Coleen Rowley, i-FBI Special Agent kanye noMeluleki wezomthetho we-Minneapolis Division (i-ret.)
URobert David Steele, owayeyisikhulu se-CIA
Peter Van Buren, U.S. Department of State, Foreign Service Officer (ret.) (ahlanganise i-VIPS)
U-Kirk Wiebe, owayengu-Senior Analyst, iSIGINT Automation Research Centre, i-NSA
Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Isikhulu Senkonzo Yangaphandle (sishiye phansi)
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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