Unyaka ka-2013 kulindeleke ukuthi ube unyaka omubi emazweni amaningana ama-Arab. Kube kubi kakhulu ngoba isithembiso senkululeko enkudlwana nezinguquko zezombusazwe sihoxisiwe, ngodlame kakhulu kwezinye izimo, ngokuthatha amazwe ambalwa awele endleleni yesiyaluyalu kanye nesiphithiphithi esiphelele. I-Syria ne-Egypt yizimo ezimbili ezibalulekile.
ISyria ihlaselwe kakhulu. Sekuphele izinyanga iNhlangano Yezizwe imile kwelokuthi bangaphezu kuka-100,000 abantu asebebulewe kulezi zinyanga ezingama-33 zombango. Muva nje, iSyrian Observatory for Human Rights esekela iqembu eliphikisayo iphethe ngokuthi okungenani bangu-125,835, abangaphezu kwesithathu kubo abayizakhamuzi, babulewe.
Inhlangano ye-UN i-OCHA ithi izigidi zabantu baseSyria abaphila ngaphansi kokuhlupheka okungapheli badinga usizo, kanti lesi sibalo sizofinyelela ku-9.3 million ekupheleni konyaka ozayo.
Izinombolo ze-OCHA zizama ukubikezela isidingo sosizo sonyaka ka-2014. Nokho, lokho kulinganisela kubonisa isibikezelo sezombusazwe esinegama elibi ngokufanayo. Njengamanje kunababaleki baseSyria abayizigidi ezi-2.4 abahlala eLebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq nase-Egypt. Isibalo sizocishe siphindeke kabili sifinyelele ezigidini ezi-4.1 ekupheleni konyaka ozayo. Uma kubhekwa ukukhula kokwehlukana kwezepolitiki phakathi kwamaqembu aseSyria ahililekile kule ngxabano, nabasekeli bawo bezifunda nabamazwe ngamazwe, mancane amathemba okuthi le ngxabano izophela maduze nje.
Eqinisweni, ukulandisa okulula kokungqubuzana phakathi kukahulumeni omkhulu nabaphikisayo akusasebenzi, njengoba ukuphikiswa nakho kuhlakazeke kwaba amaqembu amaningi, amanye anezinhlelo zenkolo ezeqisayo. Inkulumo yokuqala eyayihambisana nengxabano yase-Syria, leyo yenkululeko, intando yeningi nokunye futhi ayinamsebenzi omncane, uma kubhekwa izinga lonya kanye nezinjongo eziningi ezimenyezelwe amabutho empi ahlukahlukene. Kepha kumaSyria, kuyisimo esilahlekile.
Abantu baseSyria abathintekayo kule mpi baqonda kahle ukuthi ukungqubuzana okude kungasho ukuthi izwe libhekene nengozi yokuwohloka ngokuphelele, nokuthi isimo saseSomalia noma sase-Afghanistan siseduze. Khona-ke, bambalwa ababengakhathalela ngisho nokukhumbula izizathu zangempela zokuthi kungani impi yaqala kwasekuqaleni, njengoba izizukulwane ezimbalwa zababaleki baseSyria zizogwetshwa ukuphila okufanayo nokuhlangenwe nakho okungapheli kwababaleki basePalestine.
Nokho, kukhona inhlansi yethemba. Isivumelwano esisanda kusayinwa esiyingqopha-mlando phakathi kwe-Iran namanye amazwe ayisithupha - i-United States, i-Russia, i-China, i-France, iBrithani neJalimane - empeleni singaletha okungenani ithuba lokuphendukela ezingxoxweni ekuxazululeni inkinga yaseSyria. Yiqiniso, isivumelwano sasihlobene nohlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran, kodwa njengoba wonke la mazwe engabahlanganyeli abakhuthele empini yaseSiriya, enethonya elikhulu emaqenjini alwayo, imvume yabo yayizodingeka ukuze kube nezingxoxo zesikhathi esizayo phakathi kweDamaseku nabaphikisayo ukuze bathele izithelo.
Umbuzo omkhulu nokho uzoqhubeka nokuvela: noma ngabe iqembu eliphikisayo laseSyria lingavumelana nelungiselelo lesikhathi esizayo nombuso wamanje waseSyria uBashar al-Assad, ingabe lokho kuzoba nomthelela kwamanye amabutho anontamolukhuni alwa nenhloso yawo? Ngisho nokuhlolwa okunethemba elikhulu, ingxabano yaseSyria mancane amathuba okuthi ixazululwe ngo-2014.
Ukuhlola okufanayo kuyasebenza nase-Egypt. Ngo-2013, ukungqubuzana e-Egypt kuthathe indawo ehlukile, nakuba abezindaba abaningi (ama-Arab kanye namazwe ngamazwe) begcwele amaqiniso angaphelele kanye/noma amanga ngamabomu. Cishe akunakwenzeka ukufinyelela ekuqondeni okunezinga eliphezulu kwalokho okwenzeka ezweni lama-Arab elinabantu abaningi.
Isizathu esisodwa esiyinhloko esenze lokhu kudideka ukuthi ukubika ngoguquko lwangoJan 25, 2011 kwaba nozwela ngokweqile futhi kwenziwa lula. Kwezinye izici, abantu ababi uma beqhathaniswa nabalungile isimo siyaqhubeka nokuchaza isiyaluyalu saseGibhithe. Imithombo yezindaba yaseGibhithe iyisibonelo esihle salokho. Kusukela kuhlelwe kahle June 29 umbhikisho, okwalandelwa ukuketulwa kwamasosha July 03, amanye amabutho ezwe ahlangene nenguquko akleliswa ukusekela wona kanye amabutho ayehlangene nombuso kaMubarak owahoxiswa. Zombili lezi zinkambu zihlangene ngokumelene nohulumeni ohlangene ne-Muslim Brotherhood (MB) - yona ngokwayo ehlangene ne-revolution. Kuyaphikiswana kakhulu, njengoba i-Islamic Salafist al-Nour Party ingenayo inkinga yokuchema namasosha, ukweseka umthethosisekelo wayo osanda kubhalwa, yize kungu-al-Nour owafuna ngokungakhathali umthethosisekelo oqhutshwa yi-Sharia ngaphansi kobuholi bokukhishwa esikhundleni. UMongameli Mohammed Morsi. Yilolo hlobo lwengcindezi eyaxosha amaqembu amaningi angahambisani nenkolo ekomitini elazama ukubhala umthethosisekelo wangaphambili, kwashiya i-MB isodwa. U-Al-Nour kanye namaqembu aphikisayo manje asemi ekamu lezepolitiki elifanayo.
'Ipolitiki engcolile' ayiqali ngisho nokuchaza okwenzeke e-Egypt, ngoba isici esinobudlova salokhu kubusa asaziwa emlandweni wanamuhla wezwe. Cishe abantu baseGibhithe abangaba ngu-20,000 manje sebegwetshiwe noma babhekene namacala okuba yingxenye noma ngokweseka ikamu lezombusazwe 'elingalungile'. Uhulumeni osekelwa amasosha manje usuqala 'ukuhlasela okusemthethweni', ukhulula labo abadlelana nombuso kaMubarak futhi ubopha labo abangamalungu e-MB. Ngomhla zingama-21 kuZibandlela, umengameli owaketulwa esikhundleni uMorsi wadluliselwa ngabashushisi baseGibhithe ecaleni lesithathu lobugebengu “ngamacala okuhlela ikhefu lasejele ngesikhathi sokuvukela umbuso ngo-2011, ukusabalalisa isiphithiphithi kanye nokuthumba amaphoyisa ngokubambisana nezihonga zakwamanye amazwe,” kubika i-Associated Press.
Ummeli wobuzalwane uMohammed el-Damati uchaze inhloso yakho konke lokhu njengomzamo wokunqoba yonke impumelelo yenguquko kaJanuwari. "Bazohamba ngomhla ka-Jan. 25, 2011, ne-eraser," esho. Kodwa ingabe bazophumelela?
Nakuba amasosha ejabulela ukubusa phezu kwazo zonke izici zaseGibhithe, abantu baseGibhithe abasebona abahlanganyeli abangenzi lutho. Ukubuyisela emuva impumelelo yoguquko ngeke kuphazamise umqondo ohlangene owanikeza abantu baseGibhithe uhlobo lwentshiseko eyabenza basukuma balwela amalungelo abo. Awekho ama-diktats ezempi noma ukuqondisa okusemthethweni okungakusula lokho. Unyaka ka-2014 kungenzeka kube unyaka lapho isimo sokungqubuzana eGibhithe sishintsha sisuka kwesezempi ngokumelene ne-MB, sibe ukungqubuzana okungakhethi okudlula konke lokhu kube okunye, mhlawumbe umzabalazo ozobuyisa umoya weqembu. inguquko yokuqala.
U-Ramzy Baroud ungumbhali wephephandaba ohlanganiswe ngamazwe ngamazwe, umeluleki wezindaba kanye nomhleli we PalestineChronicle.com. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi “My Father Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza’s Untold Story” (Pluto Press, London).
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