Uma ucabangela iqiniso elibeka eceleni, umuntu uyehluleka ukucabanga ngesimo esizayo lapho i-Yemen ingagwema ukungqubuzana okuphelele noma impi yombango. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi kuningi okungenziwa ukuze kugwenywe lesi simo esingesihle, njengemizamo yokubuyisana kanye nezinyathelo eziqinile zokuzuza intando yeningi esobala. Kufanele kube nenselelo engapheli yempi yase-US eqhubekayo esizweni esimpofu.
Maye, awekho amaqembu ohlelweni lwezepolitiki olukhona lwaseYemen olunamandla, isifiso, noma igunya lokuhola inguquko ebalulekile. Akuwona lowo ohlongozwe yiGulf Cooperation Council (GCC), kodwa kunalokho inguquko yezepolitiki yasekhaya ephendula izinto ezibalulekile e-Yemen zezepolitiki, ezokuphepha, nezomnotho, hhayi ezintshisakalweni zamasu “Zabangane baseYemen,” eholwa yi-Yemen. I-U.S.
Yize kungaxoxiswana ngakho, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinxushunxushu zezombusazwe zase-Egypt noma inkinga eqhubekayo yaseTunisia, isimo esiqhubekayo saseYemen, empeleni, siyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu. Ibandakanya ngokuqondile abadlali abaningi kakhulu, ngaphandle kwe-al-Qaeda e-Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) kanye nempi ye-drone yase-U.S. ekhishwe e-Djibouti, phakathi kwezinye izindawo.
Esikhathini esiphakathi kukaJulayi 27 kuya ku-Agasti 9, abantu abangama-34 babulawa eYemen ngokuhlaselwa kwe-drone yase-US. Uhulumeni wase-US ubabheka ngokuzenzakalelayo labo ababulewe amaphekula e-al-Qaeda, noma ngabe izakhamizi kuqinisekiswa ukuthi ziphakathi kwabashonile nabalimele. Iningi lemithombo yezindaba lifaneleka izinkulumo ezinjalo ngokuchaza izisulu “njengamasosha asolwayo.” Izinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe zamalungelo abantu kanye nezinhlangano zomphakathi zaseYemen—ingasaphathwa eyokuthi abantu baseYemen abathukuthele—baphikelele ekuchazeni inani labantu abahluphekayo. Yonke imiphakathi yase-Yemeni isesimweni sokwethuka okuqhubekayo okubangelwa izilo zensimbi ezinomsindo ezisebenza ngokungawuhloniphi ngokuphelele umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kanye nobukhosi bezwe.
Eqinisweni, kulesi sigaba kunzima ukucabanga ngeYemen njengezwe elizimele nelibumbene ngokwezindawo. Nakuba amaphesenti angu-40 enani labantu bezwe engalondekile ngokudla—futhi abengeziwe abasonqenqemeni lokujoyina izibalo ezishaqisayo—inqubomgomo yezwe yezangaphandle sekuyisikhathi eside ibanjwe izifiso zabantu bangaphandle. Kukhona ukuntula ukwethenjwa kuhulumeni omkhulu obekade enenkohlakalo ngokomlando futhi engenawo amandla ngokuvumela izinhlaka ezingezona ezombuso ukuthi zingene futhi zigcwalise isikhala sezokuphepha nezomnotho.
Ngaphambi kwenguquko yase-Yemeni ngoJanuwari 2011, i-U.S. yayinamandla angaphandle anethonya elikhulu ekubumbeni nasekuphatheni uhulumeni omkhulu wase-Yemeni. Umgomo wayo wawucacile, ukuqhuba lokho okubizwa ngokuthi impi yobushokobezi eYemen ngaphandle kokuvinjelwa izinto ezicasulayo njengomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe noma ngisho nokuphikiswa ngamazwi okuvela eSana'a. UMengameli oseketulwa esikhundleni manje u-Ali Abdullah Saleh, ubushiqela bakhe obulawulwa umndeni weminyaka engama-30 bekungumlando ngenkohlakalo kanye nokuzicabangela yena yedwa. Naye, wayenezimpi zakhe zomuntu siqu okufanele azilwe futhi wayedinga imvume yase-US ukuze alondoloze amandla akhe alawulwa umndeni.
Emasontweni ambalwa ngaphambi koguquko, owayenguNobhala Wombuso ngaleso sikhathi u-Hilary Clinton wavakashela e-Sana'a ukuze amyekise ukuthi aphushe iphalamende ukuthi liqede imingcele yobumongameli bakhe, njengokungathi iminyaka engamashumi amathathu ebusa yayinganele. Umnyombo walo mkhankaso kwakuwukunwetshwa komkhankaso wokulwa nobuphekula eYemen. Umkhankaso ogcwele igazi wase-US obandakanya iPentagon kanye ne-CIA ubikiwe. Esinye sezizathu zokuthi kungani impi ingakaze ichazwe ngokuthi "impi" yingoba yayiqhutshwa ngaphansi kwesembozo sezombusazwe yiSana'a ngokwayo futhi yathengiswa njengokungathi ukubambisana kwezempi phakathi kohulumeni ababili abazimele ngokumelene nesitha esisodwa: i-al-Qaeda.
Kodwa iqiniso lalihluke kakhulu. Imizamo eminingi kaSaleh okwakucatshangwa ukuthi imelene ne-AQAP yayibhekiswe kumavukelambuso kanye nokuphikiswa kwezombusazwe okwakubuthene ndawonye ngezigidi, befuna inkululeko kanye nokuphela kobushiqela. Yimaphi amathuba okuthi i-U.S. ibingalazi iqiniso elibikwe kahle kangaka?
Eqinisweni, ukwanda kwe-AQAP kwakungakaze kube khona ngesikhathi soguquko, kodwa hhayi ngenxa yenguquko ngokwayo. USaleh ubonakale ethathe isinqumo sokushiya izindawo ezinkulu zezwe zingavikelwe ukuze avumele ukwanda kwe-AQAP kungazelelwe. Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa nje, i-al-Qaeda yayisibuthanele ukuthatha izindawo ezinkulu ezifundeni eziseningizimu yezwe. Lokhu kwenzelwa ukuqinisa inkulumo esemthethweni yase-Sana'a yokuthi uguquko empeleni lwaluyisenzo sobuphekula, ngaleyo ndlela kuqedwe uguquko lube yingxenye engaphezulu noma encane ye-Yemen kanye ne-US "impi yobushokobezi." Naphezu kokubulawa kwabantu abaningi, ukuvukela umbuso kwaqhubeka, kodwa isu likaSaleh lavumela ukuhileleka okukhulu kwezempi yase-U.S.
Ngokungafani ne-Egypt, intshisekelo yezempi yase-US e-Yemen ayenzi nje ngokuthenga ukwethembeka ngenani elinqunyiwe lemali kanye nokugcina ubuhlobo obunobungane nebutho. Kumayelana nokulawula kanye nekhono lokuqhuba noma yiliphi isu lezempi iWashington elibona libalulekile. Futhi, ngokungafani ne-Afghanistan, iYemen ayilona izwe elihlalwa abantu, okungenani ngokobuchwepheshe. Ngakho-ke, isu lase-US mayelana ne-Yemen bekuwukuthola ibhalansi esimeme phakathi kokuqina kwezempi nokuqapha kwezepolitiki. Lokhu kuchaza indima ehamba phambili eyadlalwa i-U.S. ekuxoxisaneni ngendlela ephephile kuhulumeni omkhulu, amasosha kanye neqembu elibusayo-ngaphandle kuka-Saleh-ukubalekela izimfuno ezingaguquki zamasosha omzabalazo wezwe. Ngokwezinga elithile, i-U.S. iye yaphumelela.
Ingxenye yaleyo mpumelelo yayingenxa yoqhekeko olukhona lwezepolitiki kanye nezindawo zaseYemen, lapho amaHouthi elawula izingxenye ezinkulu zenyakatho yeYemen, inhlangano yaseningizimu yeHaraki eseningizimu, ukungena kwamasosha ezweni lonke, kanye nokuphikiswa kwezepolitiki okwasalela emuva—umphakathi waseYemeni usalele emuva. ukungenwa kakhulu yizingcindezi zangaphandle. Uguquko lwase-Yemeni aluzange luphathwe kanjalo ngempela, kodwa esikhundleni salokho njengenhlekelele eyayidinga ukuphathwa. Uhlelo lokudluliswa kwamandla olwenziwa yi-GCC beluhloselwe ukuba lube umhlahlandlela wokuphuma kule nkinga. Kodwa-ke, imane yathatha indawo ka-Saleh yafaka u-Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi futhi yabeka inkundla yeNgqungquthela Kazwelonke Yezingxoxo-eqhubeka kusukela ngoMashi 18. Uguquko kuze kube manje luqiniswe ukwesekwa ngabangane baseYemen, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi inqubo okuholela okhethweni oluhlelelwe u-2014, lwenziwa ngaphansi kwesandla salabo abanesithakazelo esingenakuphikwa ku-Yemen yamanje nekusasa.
Akusizi neze ukuthi iqembu eliphikisayo laseYemen okuthiwa libumbene alikho lokho futhi umehluko uyakhula phakathi komfelandawonye wamaqembu aphikisayo aqanjwe ngokuthi I-Joint Meeting Parties (JMPs). Isibonelo savezwa esidlangalaleni kulandela ukuketulwa umbuso okwakuholwa amasosha e-Egypt ngoJulayi 3. Nakuba abalandeli beqembu le-Islah Party—elithathwa njengozakwabo we-Muslim Brotherhood—bekuphikisa ukuketula umbuso, amanye amalungu omfelandawonye namaHouthi abingelela izindaba zokuketulwa umbuso ngesibhamu. isibhamu kanye nomgubho womphakathi. Ukwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu, umongameli wesikhashana uHadi uhalalisele uhulumeni wesikhashana wase-Egypt ngeqhaza lawo langemva kokuketula umbuso.
Ngisho noma uguquko lungakavuni imiphumela ebonakalayo ekufuneni kwalo ushintsho oluyisisekelo olubhekiswe kuntando yeningi, isimo sezwe, esihlukene neHadi kanye nabaphikisi, mancane amathuba okuba samukele izixazululo eziphekwe kancane. Ngaleso sikhathi, amasosha athola amandla futhi kanjalo nokungenelela kwezombusazwe zase-US kanye nempi ye-drone. Bonke baneqhaza ekunganeliseki kanye nomuzwa wokulwa namaMelika.
Phakathi kokulindelwe kwezinguquko kanye nezinguquko ezingaphansi kwesilinganiso esimaphakathi, i-Yemen kungenzeka iqale umzabalazo omusha omiphumela yawo izoba mibi kakhulu ukuthi ingalawuleka noma yiluphi ushintsho lwezepolitiki olungenangqondo.
Z
U-Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net) ungumbhali wezincwadi kanye nomhleli we-PalestineChronicle.com. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi: Ubaba wami wayenguMlweli Wenkululeko: Indaba Engaziwa YaseGaza.