Isithombe nguBryan Regan/Shutterstock.com
Ubufakazi bulokhu bukhula bokuthi i-US ingene igagasi lesibili lobhubhane lwe-coronavirus. Bangaphezu kuka-117,000 abantu baseMelika asebeshonile ezinyangeni ezi-3 ezedlule kanti bangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-2.1 abangenwe yileli gciwane. Lokho kuqhathaniswa cishe nezigidi ezingama-460,000 nezingu-7.6 emhlabeni jikelele. Njengoba cishe amaphesenti ama-5 abantu bomhlaba, i-US inamaphesenti angaba ngu-25 amacala egciwane emhlabeni-ubufakazi bokwehluleka okukhulu kwe-US ukuphatha leli gciwane.
Lokho kwehluleka kubonakala kakhulu ekuhoxeni kukaTrump โempiniโ yaleli gciwane kanye nalokho okubonakala kuyisu lakhe elisha lokuvumela izifundazwe ukuthi zibhekane nazo zodwa. Uhulumeni kaTrump uhlehla ngokusobala, ukhathazeke ngento eyodwa kuphela: ukwenza uTrump aqokwe kabusha kungakhathalekile ukuthi yiziphi izindleko ezimpilweni noma inhlalakahle yezomnotho yezakhamizi zaseMelika.
Umgomo kaTrump ugxila kulokhu: vula kabusha umnotho ngokuphelele manje, usole izifundazwe, iWorld Health Organisation kanye namaShayina ngale nkinga, umemezele amanani akhuphukayo okutheleleka, ukulaliswa esibhedlela, njll. "njengezindaba ezingamanga," sola igagasi lesibili. ekuhlolweni okwandisiwe, futhi sibambe imihlangano emikhulu yepolitiki yansuku zonke kusukela manje kuze kube uNovemba.
Okuwukuphela kokukhathazeka kukaTrump ukubamba imibuthano nesizinda sakhe esibomvu esizokhulisa umphumela wokutheleleka kwaleli gciwane. NjengoMongameli wamaphesenti angama-30 kuphela (isizinda sakhe), akanandaba nezwe lonke noma โimpiโ yegciwane esesivele yabulala abantu baseMelika abaningi ukwedlula zonke izimpi zase-US zihlangene kusukela ngo-1945. Okuwukuphela kwe-oda langempela likaTrump ngemuva kokumemezela ukuqaliswa. wesenzo sokukhiqiza impi ezinyangeni ezedlule bekuwukuphoqa abasebenzi abapakisha inyama ukuthi babuyele emsebenzini noma balahlekelwe yizinzuzo zabo zokungasebenzi. Ukusebenza noma ufe, kuzoba yifa likaTrump "njengomongameli wezempi."
Ifa lezomnotho likaTrump, nomlando uzogcina ukhombise, kufanele ukuthi uphoqe ukuthi kuvulwe kabusha umnotho wase-US ngaphambi kwesikhathi phakathi nalolu bhubhane kanye nokuqubuka kabusha kokutheleleka ngegciwane.
Izinkomba zegagasi lesibili e-US manje ziyakhuphuka ezifundazweni ezingekho ngaphansi kwezingu-18, eziningi zazo eziseNingizimu naseNingizimu-ntshonalanga.
Izinkomba ezibalulekile zokuqubuka kabusha kwegciwane e-US - njengamazinga okulaliswa esibhedlela, amanani okufa, kanye nezinga lokuhlola - konke kuyanda kulezo zifundazwe eziyi-18. Kwezinye izifundazwe, njenge-Arizona, ukutholakala kwemibhede ye-ICU kusondela ngokushesha kumthamo omkhulu. I-Texas manje ithola ukulaliswa okusha kwezibhedlela ezingaphezu kuka-2,247 ngosuku, ngemuva kokuvula kabusha umnotho wayo ngoMeyi 1 - lokho kuyizinsuku eziyi-7 eziqondile zokulaliswa esibhedlela ngosuku kuhulumeni. IFlorida iphinde yaba nerekhodi elisha losuku olulodwa lamacala angaphezu kwe-1,900. I-Alabama, i-Arkansas kanye neNingizimu Carolina bonke bafakaza nezibhedlela ezikhulayo, ezifinyelela umthamo omkhulu emibhedeni yase-ICU.
Kodwa akuyona nje iNingizimu ejulile. Izifunda zasogwini oluseNtshonalanga โ iNevada, Oregon, Alaska, nezinye โ ziqopha ukwanda okusha kwamacala, okuphindisela emuva ukwehla kwangaphambili. Lelo qiniso lisikisela ukuthi okwenzekayo manje kungaphezu nje kwegagasi lokuqala. Esingaba nakho manje ukunwetshwa ngesikhathi esisodwa kwegagasi lokuqala ezifundazweni ezibomvu, kanye nokuvela kwegagasi lesibili elihambisana naleso sandiso.
Ngaleso sikhathi, ososayensi basanda kuqinisekisa ukuthi i-coronavirus manje isiguqukile, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi ithelelana ngokuphindwe kahlanu.
I-Congruent Developments Ephehla Igagasi Lesibili
Kukulesi simo esijwayelekile lapho i-US manje isijaha ukuvula kabusha umnotho wayo, ikakhulukazi eNingizimu, eNingizimu-ntshonalanga namaphakathi nentshonalanga, lapho ukuvulwa kabusha okuthe xaxa noma okuncane kungena evikini layo lesihlanu kwezinye izimo. Okwengezwe ekuvulweni kabusha kungakabi yisikhathi imibhikisho yomphakathi emelene nesihluku senqubomgomo esesikhulile futhi esisaqhubeka sikhula, esibekwe phezu kokuvulwa kabusha komnotho. Mhlawumbe isici esikhulu esibe nomthelela ekuqubukeni kwegagasi lesibili kube wukuntula ukuzithiba komphakathi ezifundazweni eziningi, ikakhulukazi โezibomvuโ lapho kugxilwe khona isizinda sepolitiki sikaTrump. Ukunganakwa okukhulayo kokuncishiswa komphakathi kube yinkambiso ekhulayo ezifundazweni eziningi. Akukhona nje ukuthi abantu abaningi abakholwa ukuthi bangalithola igciwane; wukuthi futhi abanandaba nokuthi bayasakaza uma begula.
Ngaphezu kwakho konke lokhu isibonelo sikaMongameli uTrump, omemezele ukuthi manje uhlela ukuqala ukubamba imihlangano emikhulu yokhethoโngalokho ethumela umyalezo emphakathini ukuthi kulungile ukuhlanganyela emibuthanweni emikhulu. Futhi uma belandela isibonelo sikaTrump, bazokwenza lokho ngaphandle kokugqoka imaski yobuso. Njengoba i-moronic right wing blogosphere ibilokhu isho-futhi uTrump usephinde wathatha-amazinga akhuphukayo okutheleleka yingoba sihlola kakhulu. Ukuncishiswa komphakathi kungenzeka "kwenzรฉ ijika" ezindaweni ezinjengeNew York City kanye nezindawo ezinkulu zamadolobha ezisenyakatho-mpumalanga. Kepha ukuvulwa kabusha kwezomnotho okujwayelekile manje kuyaqhubeka, imibhikisho esabalele kanye nemibhikisho emelene nesihluku samaphoyisa, isibonelo sokuziphatha kukaTrump esisekelweni sakhe sezepolitiki futhi, mhlawumbe futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, ukuntuleka okujwayelekile kokuziphatha komphakathi kwabantu ezifundeni eziningi njengezwe, baqinisekise ukuthi imiphumela ye-COVID-19 e-US manje iyanda futhi.
Futhi akubonakali noma yimuphi wale mithombo oshayela igagasi lesibili ozoncipha noma nini maduze.
Izikhulumeli ezibalulekile zokuphatha kukaTrump, njengomeluleki wezomnotho uLarry Kudlow kanye noNobhala woMgcinimafa uSteve Mnuchin, bobabili bamemezele esidlangalaleni ukuthi umnotho wase-US ngeke uvalwe futhi uhlale endaweni okwesibili. Ngakho-ke uTrump uthathe isinqumo sokuhweba amashumi ezinkulungwane zezinye izimpilo zase-US ukuze athole ilungelo lebhizinisi lokubuyela ekukhiqizeni imali engenayo kanye nenzuzo.
Futhi akubonakali ababhikishi beBlack Lives Matters, abagqugquzela udlame lwamaphoyisa emashumini eminyaka, bazohoxa emibhikishweni yabo yomphakathi.
Noma ukuthi iningi lezakhamizi zezifunda โezibomvuโ ekugcineni lizosivuma isidingo sokuziphatha kahle komphakathi kanye nokuncishiswa kwezenhlalo maduzane ngazo zonke izinkomba lapho lo mkhuba uphambene.
Futhi akubonakali ukuthi uTrump usezocubungula kabusha ukubamba imihlangano emikhulu yokhetho, isenzo esithumela umyalezo ocacile ezweni lonke ukuthi kulungile ukuhlangana ngamaqembu amakhulu, bayeke ukuqhelelana nomphakathi, kanye nokugqoka imaski.
Umbhikisho e-White House
Isithombe ngu-bgrocker/Shutterstock.com
Igagasi lesibili Lisho Ukuma Kwezomnotho Kwesimo Se-WโฆNoma Kubi kakhulu
Ngamafuphi, aya ngokuya ngokwanda amathuba okuthi izinto sezizoba zimbi ngokwezempilo yomphakathi wase-US. Futhi njengoba lokho kwenzeka, kanjalo nomnotho wase-US uzobhekana nomthelela omubi ovela kuleli gciwane. Igagasi lesibili elivelayo manje alisho nje ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwezempilo yomphakathi, kodwa igagasi lesibili lezinkinga emnothweni wase-US futhi.
Yeka igagasi lesibili eliqinisekisayo ukuthi ukusimama komnotho wase-US ngeke kube yi-V-Shape kodwa kube yi-W-Shape; okusho ukuthi, ukusimama komumo ka-W okubonakala yizikhathi zokukhula kwe-GDP okufushane nokungajulile, okulandelwa ukuhlehla komnotho kwesikhashana ngemva kwalokho. Lokhu kubuyiselwa okufushane, okungajulile kanye nokubuyela emuva kungase kuphinde futhi kuqhubeke iminyaka ezayo.
Uma kwenzeka ukukhula kwengcindezi yezomnotho ngenxa yokusimama okuntekenteke, okufushane nokuncaneโokungukuthi ukuntenga komnotho okwandisiwe iminyaka ezayoโkubangele isikhukhula esingenakugwenywa samabhizinisi, uhulumeni wasekhaya, nokwehluleka ukukhokha izikweletu zemizi kanye nokuwa, ekugcineni kuzokhungathekisa uhlelo lwezezimali, futhi ingangenisa ukucindezeleka kwezomnotho mhlawumbe okubi nakakhulu kunama-1930s.
Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho kuhlala kuwumphumela wezinkinga ezikhulisanayo emkhakheni wangempela nowezezimali womnotho. Ukuwohloka okujulile kwamanje komnotho wase-US ayikatholi ukuphahlazeka kwesistimu yamabhange nezezimali. Nokho, uma umnotho wamanje wase-US olimele kakhulu uqhubeka untengantenga, ungena futhi uphuma ekuwohlokeni komnotho iminyaka eminingi, kuyanda amathuba okuthi igagasi lokungaphumeleli kwebhizinisi kanye nabathengi (okungukuthi ukwehluleka ukukhokha inzalo kanye nokuyinhloko) emazingeni arekhodiwe ebhizinisi. -izikweletu zikahulumeni wasekhaya zizogezeka emnothweni.
Uma lokho kwenzeka, amabhange kuyodingeka athathe isikweletu esibi sezinkampani ezihlulekile, imindeni, kanye nohulumeni basekhaya emaphepheni abo ebhalansi asebhange. Lokho kumisa ukubolekwa kwemali emabhizinisini nasemizini jikelele. Okunye ukudilizwa kwenqwaba kube kulandela. Ngemuva kokumiswa kokuboleka kwebhange, izinkontileka zomnotho wangempela zisaqhubeka njengoba uhlelo lwamabhange luwohloka. Inkinga yezezimali ihlangana nokuwohloka kwangempela, okujulile komnotho kanye nokuntengantenga osekuqhubeka. Njengoba lezi zinhlelo ezimbiliโezezimali kanye nomnotho wangempelaโzisebenzisana futhi zandisa zodwa, umphumela uba ukwehlela ekucindezelekeni kwezomnotho okuqinisekile.
2008-09 Ukwehla Komnotho Okukhulu & 2020 Uma kuqhathaniswa Kafushane
Ngo-2008-09 kwaba uhlangothi lwezezimali olwaqala ukuwohloka, okwabe sekuhudulela phansi umnotho wangempela ngamaphesenti angu-5-10 ezindaweni eziningana futhi kwakhiqiza amazinga okungasebenzi ngamaphesenti angu-15-20. Ngemva kwalokho kwathatha iminyaka eyisithupha ukubuyisela imisebenzi elahlekile ngo-2008-09 futhi ibuyele emazingeni okuqashwa ngo-2007. Amaholo emindeni eminingi esebenzayo amile noma ehla kule minyaka eyishumi eyalandela. Izikweletu zomndeni zekilasi labasebenzi zivuleleke esikhundleni sezinzuzo zamaholo zangempela kuzo zonke izigabaโamakhadi esikweletu, izimoto, imali ebolekiwe, izikweletu zabafundi, izikweletu zesitolimende, njllโcishe amabhiliyoni ayi-15 wamaRandi namuhla. Ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zaleli gciwane, isikweletu sasekhaya siye sakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-16 ngaphezulu, ngokusho kweNew York Federal Reserve. Izinqubomgomo ze-Federal Reserve zowezi-2008-09 zahlenga ngokushesha abatshalizimali kanye namabhange, kodwa azenzanga lutho olutheni emisebenzini, emazingeni omholo kanye nemali engenayo yabasebenzi, namazinga okuphila ekilasi labasebenzi ngokujwayelekile.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, inzuzo yebhizinisi icishe yaphindeka kathathu kusukela ngo-2009 kuya ku-2019. I-Corporate America, yona, yaklomelisa abanikazi bamasheya bayo kahle. Ukuthengwa kwesitoko kanye nokukhokhwa kwezabelo ngaphansi kuka-Obama kufinyelele ngaphezu kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-800 ngonyaka kusukela ngo-2009 kuya ku-2016. U-Trump wengeze enye imali eyizigidi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.4 eminyakeni engu-3 nje kuphela. Leyo isamba semali engenayo nengcebo engaphezu kuka-$10 trillion esatshalaliswe kubanikazi bamasheya eminyakeni eyishumi. Ngokuphambene nokuntengantenga kwamaholo kanye nokwehla kwamaphesenti angama-80 aphansi emizi yase-US.
Kulokhu, ngo-2020, ubudlelwano obuyimbangela phakathi kwale mikhakha yomibiliโowangempela nowezezimaliโ buyahlehliswa. Kulokhu ukuwohloka kohlangothi lwangempela lomnotho, okungenani okuphindwe kane kunalokho okwenzeka ngo-2008-09.
Ngo-2008-09 kwaba ukuwohloka kwezimali okwadala, kwasheshisa futhi kwajulisa ukuntenga komnotho kwangempela. Namuhla ngo-2020, ubudlelwano bembangela buyahlehliswa, futhi bungahle bubonakale bububi kakhulu. Ukuwohloka kwangempela komnotho kanye nokuntenga okunwetshiwe kungase kubangele inkinga yezezimali, yona, engase ibe nempendulo ngomnotho wangempela futhi ibangele ukuwohloka okujulile nokude kakhulu. Impendulo ehambisanayo ngokomlando ihlale iholela ekucindezelekeni okukhulu. Akunandaba ukuthi isiphi imvula. Ukusebenzelana okungalungile kuyisici esibalulekile esiqhuba ukudangala.
Ngegagasi lokuqala le-COVID-19, kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaFebhuwari kuya kuMeyi 2020, imindeni yabasebenzi yalahlekelwa imali engaphezu kuka- $ 1 trillion emalini etholwayo - ngisho nangemva kwama- $ 500 ezigidigidi zenzuzo enwetshiwe yokuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokuhlolwa kokukhuthaza kukahulumeni. Ngokuphambene nalokho, izinkampani zinikezwe kusukela ngoMashi ngama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.7 emalimboleko nezibonelelo kanye namanye amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-650 ekuncishisweni kwentela yebhizinisi ngaphansi koMthetho ka-March 2020 CARES. Futhi i-Federal Reserve inikeze enye imali eyizigidi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.3 emalimboleko emabhange, ezinkampanini, nakubatshalizimali. Leso isilinganiso sika-10 kuya ku-1: ngaphezu kuka-$5.5 wamatriliyoni ebhizinisini kanye namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-500 kuphela. Iningi loxhaso lwebhizinisi luyaqoqwa, ngaphezu kwalokho; kanti, iningi lamabhiliyoni angama-500 selisetshenzisiwe kakade. Futhi asinikezi esinye isikhuthazo sangempela emnothweni engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020.
Kugagasi lesibili emkhathizwe, ngaphezu kwalokho, kuningi okufanayo okuseza, njengoba kubonakala sengathi iCongress, kuMthetho wayo olandelayo wama-HEROES Act, izomisa ukunwetshwa kwezinzuzo zokungasebenzi ngoMashi 2020 okuphelelwa yisikhathi ekupheleni kukaJulayi; ngeke avume ukunikeza amanye amasheke okungezelela imali engenayo; futhi esikhundleni salokho izosebenzisa โukongaโ kulezo zinhlelo ukuhlinzeka ngoxhaso oluqondile lwamaholo ebhizinisini. Ngokwezilinganiso ezithile, uhulumeni (futhi ngaleyo ndlela nomkhokhi wentela) uhlela ukuxhasa ibhizinisi ngokuqhubekayo ngokunikeza uxhaso lwamaholo olungafika kumaphesenti angama-85 omholo owawukhokhwa ngaphambili amabhizinisi kubasebenzi bawo. Ngamafuphi, esikhundleni sezinzuzo zokungasebenzi kubasebenzi, kuzoba uxhaso lokukhokhelwa kwamaholo emabhizinisini.
Ukuhlola Okukhulu Kobunxiwankulu: Ngaphambi Kokukhipha Ibheyili Kuhlelo
Kuze kube manje i-Fed ivimbele ukuphahlazeka kwamabhange ngokumpompa ama-trillion angu-3.3 kumabhange nabatshalizimali, empeleni ibakhulula ngaphambi kokuba kwenzeke ingozi. ICongress inikeze enye isigidigidi esingu-1.7 zamarandi kuze kube manje ukuze kutakulwe ngaphambili uhlangothi olungezona olwamabhange lomnotho webhizinisi ngemali mboleko nezibonelelo zamahhala, kanye nokunye ukuncishiswa kwentela yabatshalizimali bebhizinisi okungamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-650. I-Fed ithembise โimali yamahhalaโ ethe xaxa emabhange nasemabhizinisini. Futhi iCongress isayine ukuthi ikulungele ukuhlinzeka okwengeziwe ebhizinisini - uma kungenjalo kubasebenzi, abathengi, nohulumeni bezifundazwe nabasekhaya.
I-Capitalism e-US namuhla ibambe iqhaza ekuxhasweni okukhulu kwe-capitalism ngokwayo ngezinga elikhulu elingakaze libonwe noma licatshangwe ngaphambili. Igcwalisa uhlelo ngemali yamahhala kanye ne-liquidity (imalimboleko, izibonelelo, ukuncishiswa kwentela, i-QE, ukuthengwa kwebhondi yebhizinisi, njll.) emzamweni wokuvimbela okunye "ukwehla kwamandla omnotho" ka-2008-09 okungabonakala "kukhulu nakakhulu." ukuwohloka komnotho ka-2020-21โโnoma mhlawumbe kuguqukela ekuwohlokeni okukhulu kokuqala kwekhulu lama-21.
Umphumela we-COVID-19, noma ngabe igagasi lokuqala noma lesibili, akuyona ukuphela kwento eqhuba umnotho kanye nenkinga yezomnotho ekhona. Amabutho manje aseqale inkinga yezomnotho eqhubekayo, igciwane noma alikho igciwane. Yindaba nje yesikhathi nendawo ngaphambi kokuba inkinga yezomnotho ingene esigabeni esisha nesingazinzile nakakhulu.
Akuwona umnotho we-COVID-19. Umnotho wobungxiwankulu, ukuntengantenga kwawo okuye kwenziwa ukungazinzi nakakhulu ngenxa yenkinga yezempilo ye-COVID-19. Futhi lokho kungazinzi ngeke kuphele uma igciwane linyamalala okuyinto, vele, engeke yenzeke futhi. Z
UDkt. Jack Rasmus ungumbhali wencwadi esanda kushicilelwa, The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy kusukela kuReagan kuya kuTrump, Clarity Press, January 2020. Ubhala ku-jackrasmus.com futhi uphatha uhlelo lomsakazo lwamasonto onke, Alternative Visions. Isibambo sakhe se-twitter sithi @drjackrasmus.