Ilungu eliqavile lamaBolshevik nePolitburo u-Nikolai Bukharin wake wenza ihlaya lokuthi kungase kube khona amaqembu amabili kuphela eRussia: elinye lise-Kremlin nelinye ejele. Kwakuyihlaya elingajabulisi futhi ngokungangabazeki uBukharin wakuqaphela lokhu lapho esuswa e-Kremlin eyiswa ejele laseLubyanka.
Ngenkathi iQembu LamaKhomanisi laseSoviet Union (CPSU) lisekhona, izwe laligcinwe ngokuqinile ngemuva kwemigoqo yemibono esemthethweni, kodwa ngisho nabaphathi bamaqembu kwakudingeka bathobele imithetho ethile. โIsivumelwano somphakathiโ saseSoviet sasiqondile: Ngokungangabazeki abantu benza njengoba babetshelwa, futhi abaphathi beqembu abazange bazivumele ngokweqile.
Ngemva kokuwa kweSoviet Union, i-nomenklatura yakhetha isikhashana inkululeko yokuphila ngaphandle kokuzihlanganisa neqembu. Abaphathi beqembu bangaphambili bawalahle ngenjabulo amakhadi abo eqembu, kanye nanoma yimuphi umthwalo wemfanelo phambi kwabantu nomthetho. Kubo, intando yeningi yayisho ukuthi isigaba esibusayo sasikhululiwe kunoma yiluphi uhlobo lwezithiyo noma isidingo sokubheka ukufaneleka.
Eminyakeni edlule, kube nemizamo eminingana yokwethula ukuhleleka ezinhlwini ze-ex-nomenklatura, kusetshenziswa izindlela zendabuko ezisuka phansi. Umzamo wokuqala wokwakha โiqembu lamandlaโ wenziwe uViktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin ongasoze amkhohlwa, owakha i-Our Home Is Russia ngaphandle kwezisebenzi ezingeni likazwelonke, lesifunda kanye nelendawo.
Isakhiwo esakhiwe i-jerry yaseChernomyrdin sabhidlika ngomzuzu umnikazi waso eyeka ukuba undunankulu. Okusele kule phrojekthi enephutha inkulumo engafi yomklami wayo omkhulu: "Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi sakha kanjani iqembu, sihlala sigcina i-CPSU." Maye, uChernomyrdin wayezikhohlisa ngokuthi: Ikhaya Lethu IRussia lalikude kakhulu ne-CPSU. IQembu LamaKhomanisi LaseSoviet laliyisakhiwo esiqinile nesihlala isikhathi eside, izingcezu zalo ezisabonakala lapha nalaphaya kwezombusazwe zaseRussia. Amaqembu anamandla e-post-Soviet awakwazi ukuziqhayisa ngezimpumelelo ezinjalo.
Ngo-1999, i-nomenklatura endala yazikhukhumeza futhi yahlanganisa ngokushesha izinhlangothi ezimbili zamandla: eyodwa ngaphansi kukaNdunankulu ngaleso sikhathi u-Vladimir Putin, enye ngaphansi kweMeya yaseMoscow u-Yury Luzhkov kanye noNdunankulu wangaphambili u-Yevgeny Primakov.
Yebo-ke, umuntu angakugxeka ukukhohlakala okunjalo, kodwa inkinga kwaba ukuthi abaphathi bezifunda bebengakwazi ukuthola ukuthi ubani ozovela njengenhloko yezwe. Futhi yingakho sigcine sinakho kokubili i-Unity ne-Fatherland - njengama-broiler amabili aphuma emzileni ofanayo wokukhiqiza. Lapho isimo sesihle, kwadingeka ukuba amaqembu ahlangane, futhi umphumela waba i-United Russia. Manje, ubuholi bezwe ekugcineni buneqembu elilodwa - inkinga nje ukuthi kufanele benzeni ngalo.
Noma yimuphi umfana wesikole waseSoviet angachaza isidingo se-CPSU. Yayixhumanisa futhi ilawula indlela kahulumeni, ikhetha izinhlaka futhi ijezisa abangalaleli. I-United Russia yanamuhla ingathanda ukufana ne-CPSU, kodwa ayikwazi futhi ayifuni ukudlala indima efanayo emphakathini. Phambilini leli qembu lalikhetha izikhulu lazinika imisebenzi. Namuhla, izikhulu sezikulungele ukujoyina iqembu, kodwa izinqumo zabasebenzi zenziwa kwenye indawo. Bayajabula ukuba ngamalungu e-United Russia, kodwa hhayi ukuziphendulela kukho.
Ngakho-ke, zingabhalwa kanjani? IQembu LamaKhomanisi LaseSoviet lalinombono ocacile. I-United Russia ayikho. Kukhona ihlaya elenza imijikelezo yokuthi ku-Sergei Shoigu's Emergency Situations Ministry, amapayipi omlilo kuphela angakaze enziwe ukujoyina iqembu. Uma usungene esikhundleni esithile ku-bureaucracy, akukho okunye ongakwenza ngaphandle kokuthi ujoyine iqembu lamandla. Kodwa-ke, uma uyilungu futhi unesikhundla esihloniphekile, akekho onendaba nemibono yakho yokubikezela. I-United Russia iyiqembu labantu abanomqondo ofanayo - kodwa ngomqondo wokuthi amalungu ayo afuna ukuba ngabaphathi abakhulu.
Njengoba ukhetho lwasephalamende seluzophela lo nyaka, izindimbane zezombusazwe ezingaziwa seziphonse izigqoko, zinethemba lokuwina isihlalo kule nhlangano yomthetho engaqondakali. Sonke siyazi ukuthi i-State Duma inesibopho sokumisa imithetho emisha, kodwa kungani iRussia idinga eminye imithetho yinto okungekho muntu - ngisho nabantu abayibhalayo - abangayichaza. Ukuphila ngokuhambisana nomthetho kungcono kunokungabi namthetho. Kodwa akuyona imfihlo ukuthi ukuphila kwangempela eRussia kulandela umthetho wesidingo kaningi kunomthetho wezwe.
I-Duma iphinde yamukela isabelomali sikahulumeni, nokho, futhi lokhu kuwumthombo wokunxenxa kwamalungu ethu esishayamthetho nokuba wusizo kubasekeli abahlukahlukene. Ukufaka ephaketheni isekela noma amabili kuyizindleko zebhizinisi ezincane zezinkampani ezinkulu, ikakhulukazi ngamanani kawoyela ezingeni lawo lamanje. Abadlali abakhulu manje sebengakwazi ukugcina iqembu lonke lephalamende ngendlela ebisijwayele.
Ibhizinisi laseRussia lihlala liza nemali eminyakeni yokhetho. Ukubhanga umkhankaso kuwutshalomali oluqinile lwezinkampani ezinkulu - oluzikhokhela ngaphezu kwekhefu lentela, izinkontileka zikahulumeni kanye nokufinyelela okusezingeni eliphezulu. Osomabhizinisi abasafufusa bavame ukukhetha ukuba amaphini bona. Ngaphezu kokuhlonishwa, isihlalo ephalamende sinikeza ukuvikeleka ekushushisweni. Isikhulu esibanjwe inkunzi inkampani yaso asikwazi ukugqunywa ejele. Kodwa angashaywa. Umlando ukhombisile ukuthi ababulali bezinkontileka abakuhloniphi ukungavikeleki kwamasekela.
Ngaphandle kwentuthuko ebingalindelekile, ukhetho oluzayo ngeke lube olumangalisa kakhulu, yize kusasele isilinganiso esithile sozungu, ikakhulukazi mayelana namathemba eqembu elisekela i-Kremlin United Russia. Abaholi baleli qembu nabaxhasi balindele ukuthi lidle umhlanganiso ngezihlalo eziningi kuDuma olandelayo, nesabelo sebhubesi emalini ehambisana nabo. Lokhu okulindelekile kuhambisana ngokuphelele nombono omusha wombuso waseRussia, kanye nokucabanga kwamanje e-Kremlin.
Indlela elula kungaba ukuqoka wonke amasekela akwaDuma ohlwini olwakhiwe ngabaphathi bakamongameli. Inkinga wukuthi abavoti banezinye izinhlelo. "Izinsiza zokuphatha" zingakhiqiza amavoti amaningi ngamaphesenti angu-5 kuya kwangu-6 kumakhandidethi akhethwe e-Kremlin, okuhumushela kumasekela angama-30 kuye kwangama-40 ngaphezulu avela ezifundeni zegunya elilodwa. Kodwa ukuze iguqule leli thuba elincanyana libe ukunqoba okukhulu, i-Kremlin kuzodingeka ifake i-Merlin phezu kweKhomishini Yokhetho Ephakathi.
Ngenkathi abaphathi bakamongameli besacabanga ukuthi bangawahlukanisa kanjani amaDuma, iqeqebana elikhulu labavoti lilungiselela ukuvotela amaKhomanisi, njengoba behlale benza. Inani labavoti abavotele amaKhomanisi lizulazula endaweni ethile phakathi kwamaphesenti angama-35 nangama-40 engqikithi, kungakhathaliseki izinombolo zokuvota zeqembu. I-Kremlin ayinakukwazi ukunikeza izihlalo ezingaka eqenjini eliphikisayo (uma kuphela ngegama), kodwa ayikatholi ukuthi ingawugwema kanjani umphumela onjalo.
Iqembu likaGennady Zyuganov lihlaselwe amahlazo nozungu okuhloswe ngalo ukuhlukanisa izikhundla zalo noma ukufaka ubuholi obusha. Futhi le midlalo yamandla iye yanda kuphela njengoba ezinye izinhlangano zezombangazwe zaseRussia ziye zabonisa ukuqothuka kwazo ngokuphelele. Akukho kulokhu okuhlangene nemibono nezimiso, kunjalo. Njengoba intatheli eyaziwayo u-Anatoly Baranov yasho, lokhu akuyona impi yama-titans, kodwa ukuphikisana phakathi kwezinambuzane ezinkulu kakhulu - okuthakazelisayo ngokwanele ukubuka, kodwa uzobe ucindezelwe kanzima ukuzwelana nanoma yibaphi abalwayo.
Nakuba i-United Russia ihlukanisa izihlalo engakayitholi, namaKhomanisi elwela izimpilo zawo zezombangazwe, iqembu lesithathu eliyinhloko le-post-Soviet Russia, i-Yabloko, lizindla ngalo mbuzo wakudala: โUkuba noma cha. kube?"
Ngesimanga esithile, leli qembu lihlale lisusa umgoqo wamaphesenti angu-5 obudingekayo ukuze kube nokumelwa ohlwini lweqembu kwaDuma. Abaholi be-Yabloko, abahlale begijima ukuze bavimbele ukuwa kweqembu, babanjwe imicabango emnyama njalo eminyakeni emine.
Ngabe abavoti bazophuma bezobaseka? Ngabe amanye amaqembu amakhulu azozama ukuhlwitha izihlalo zawo? Ungaba nesikhathi esinzima sokweba amaphesenti ayi-10 kuya kwayi-15 amavoti amaKhomanisi, kodwa ukuphuma ngamaphesenti angu-2 kuya kwangu-3 wamavoti ka-Yabloko kungafana nokuthatha uswidi enganeni. I-Yabloko ayikho esimweni sokuzivikela; empeleni, ayikwazi ngisho nokuhlela izingqapheli ezanele zesiteshi sokuvota ukuze zilandelele amavoti antshontshiwe ngosuku lokhetho.
Umbuzo omkhulu okhethweni luka-2003 ufana nenkinga yezibalo ezinganeni ezineminyaka engu-8: Mangaki amavoti okufanele abiwe ku-Yabloko phakathi nenqubo yokubala ukuze kwanelise i-United Russia ngaphandle kokucasula amaKhomanisi?
I-United Russia kumenyezelwe ukuthi izowina ukhetho ngaphambi kokuthi kuqale umkhankaso futhi umzabalazo wayo omkhulu manje awukona ukuwina okhethweni kodwa ukukholisa umongameli uVladimir Putin ukuthi uhulumeni olandelayo kumele abunjwe ngokwezeluleko zawo. Ukubunjwa kukahulumeni ngokuhambisana neqembu kuwumgomo ophusile wentando yeningi.
Kodwa-ke, ukwakhiwa kweqembu elisekelwe esikhundleni osiphethe ngokusemthethweni kuyindlela yaseRussia kakhulu, noma kunalokho, iSoviet kakhulu. I-United Russia ifana ne-nomenklatura yangaphambili yokuphupha emini. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, abaphathi bezombangazwe bacabanga ukuthi basebasha futhi amalungu e-CPSU. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngisho nasemaphusheni abo amabi kakhulu abasoze bashintshanisa iMercedes yabo yokunethezeka ngeVolga engakhululekile, noma babuyele ezinkambisweni zokuphanga zaseSoviet, ezisezingeni eliphansi ngokwezindinganiso zanamuhla.
Ngamafuphi, awukwazi ngempela ukuhlehlisa iwashi. Futhi ngiyethemba, ukuthi lo mkhuba omubi wokuvalela abangahambisani nawo awusoze wavuselelwa ubuholi bezwe. Kodwa lapha ngingaba nephuthaรขโฌยฆ
U-Boris Kagarlitsky ungumqondisi we-Institute of Globalization Studies.