The izindaba zakamuva ezivela eMelika kumelwe ukuba kwabajabulisa abaningi: Cishe iPakistan inezikhali zenuzi eziningi kunelaseNdiya. Okwakamuva Washington Post esihlokweni, icaphuna ochwepheshe abahlukahlukene benuzi, isikisela ukuthi iPakistan ikulungele “ukuqhubekela phambili ekukhiqizeni izikhali zenuzi, ibeke endleleni yokudlula iBrithani njengezwe lesihlanu ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngezikhali zenuzi”.
Abanye bangase bawushaye indiva lo mbiko ngokuthi i-alarmist anti-Pakistan propaganda, kuyilapho abanye bezokungabaza ukunemba kwezimangalo ezinjalo. Ngempela, uma kubhekwa imvelo eyimfihlo kakhulu yezinhlelo zenuzi yonke indawo, okungenani umuntu angakwazi ukuqagela kuphela ngezikhali nezinto zazo. E-Pakistan, kwaziwa kahle ukuthi inxanxathela ye-Kahuta ibikhiqiza i-uranium enothiswe kakhulu ikhulunyaka lekota, nokuthi kuneziphehlisi ezimbili ezingavikelekile ezikhiqiza i-plutonium ezingavikelekile eKhushab (neyesithathu isakhiwa). Noma kunjalo, inani eliqondile lempahla yezinga lamabhomu nezikhali kuyimfihlo egcinwe eduze.
Kodwa ngenxa yempikiswano, ake sicabange ukuthi izimangalo ezenziwe zilungile. Ngempela, ake sithi iPakistan idlula iNdiya ngamanani - ithi ngamaphesenti angama-50 noma ngamaphesenti ayi-100. Ngabe lokho kuzokwenza iPakistan ivikeleke kakhulu? Kwenze ikwazi ukubhekana nezinselele zamanje ezikhona?
Impendulo ithi, cha. Izinkinga zokuphepha eziyisisekelo zasePakistan zingaphakathi kwemingcele yayo: ukukhula kokungezwani kwangaphakathi kanye nempi, ukuwohloka komnotho, kanye nenkolelo phakathi kwezakhamizi eziningi yokuthi umbuso awukwazi ukubusa ngempumelelo. Lezi yizinkinga ezijulile nezibucayi ezingeke zixazululwe ngezikhali eziningi noma ezingcono. Ngakho-ke indlela eya phambili isekwakheni intando yeningi esimeme nesebenzayo, umnotho wokuthula kunezimpi, umfelandawonye lapho izikhalo zezifundazwe zingaxazululwa khona ngempumelelo, ukuqedwa kombuso wentando yeningi kanye nokwakha umphakathi obekezelelana ohlonipha umthetho.
Sekuyisikhathi eside abantu basePakistan becabanga ukuthi iBhomu liyi-panacea yazo zonke izifo. Kwaba nomuzwa wokuthi, ngaphezu kokunikeza ukuphepha okuphelele, iBhomu izosisiza ukuthi sikhulule iKashmir, inikeze iPakistan ukubonakala kwamazwe ngamazwe, idale ukuziqhenya kwezwe futhi iphakamise isimo sezwe sezobuchwepheshe. Kodwa lezi zithembiso zabonakala ziyize.
IBhomu alenzanga lutho ukusondeza inkululeko yaseKashmiri. Ukubamba kweNdiya eKashmir kuqinile namuhla kunalokho obekuyikho isikhathi eside futhi kuphonselwa inselelo kuphela ukuvukela kwesibindi kweKashmiris. Isu lePakistan lokubhekana ne-India - i-jihad eyimfihlo yama-Islamic fighters evikelwe yisambulela senuzi yasePakistan - ihlehlisele emuva kabi iKargil futhi yacishe yaguqula iPakistan yaba inkundla yamazwe ngamazwe. Okubaluleke nakakhulu, impi yanamuhla ephethwe yi-hydra ikweleta ama-mujahideen aseKashmiri nase-Afghan aphindiselele ukukhashelwa kwawo amasosha asePakistan kanye nosopolitiki ngokujikisa izibhamu zabo kubaxhasi babo bangaphambili nabaqeqeshi.
Kwenzekani ngesimangalo sokuthi ukuziqhenya ngebhomu kwakuzohlanganisa ngokuyisimangaliso abantu abahlukene abakha iPakistan? Nakuba abaningi e-Punjab besalifuna ibhomu, amaSindhi athukuthele afuna amanzi nemisebenzi - futhi asola i-Punjab ngokukuphuca lokhu. U-Karachi uyadiyazela kanye nokubulawa kwabantu okubangelwa izinhlanga; AmaMuhajirs namaPakhtuns avalelwe empini ebulalayo. Ngokuqondene neBaloch, bavukela obala. Bayakucasula ukuthi lezi zindawo ezimbili zokuhlola izikhali zenuzi - manje esezinemisebe futhi ziphumile emingceleni - zisemhlabeni wazo. Bethukuthele ngokubuswa yi-Islamabad, abanye bathathe izikhali bafuna ukuthi kuhlakazwe izigodi zamasosha. IBhomu yayingeyona ingcina.
Abanye bangase babuze, ingabe iBhomu alizange livimbe iNdiya ekugwinyeni iPakistan? Impendulo ithi, cha. Okokuqala, iNdiya elihamba phambili alinasizathu sokufuna amanye amaSulumane ayizigidi eziyi-180. Okwesibili, noma ngabe i-India ibifuna, ukunqotshwa kwezindawo akunakwenzeka. Izikhali ezivamile, ezisetshenziswa iPakistan ngendlela yokuzivikela, ziyisivikelo esanele. Uma inhlwathi yaseMelika enamandla ingakwazi ukugaya i-Iraq noma i-Afghanistan, akhona amathuba okuthi amandla aphakathi nendawo njengeNdiya athathe iPakistan, izwe elikhulu ngokuphindwe kane kune-Iraq.
Yiqiniso, kuyiqiniso ukuthi izikhali zenuzi zasePakistan zavimbela i-India ekuqaliseni ukuhlasela okuyisijeziso okungenani kathathu kusukela ekuhlolweni kuka-1998. I-India ayikwazanga ukwenza lutho ngemuva kokugasela okuyimfihlo kwePakistan eKargil ngo-1999, ukuhlasela kukaDisemba 13 ephalamende laseNdiya ngawo lowo nyaka (okwakushiwo uJaish-i-Muhammad), noma ukuhlasela kweMumbai ngo-2008 nguLashkar-i-Taiba. Ngakho-ke kufanele sigcine iBhomu ukuze sivikele amaqembu ezidlamlilo? Impela sekuyisikhathi sokuqaphela ukuthi ukwenza inqubomgomo yangaphandle ngale ndlela ngeke kusithengele lutho ngaphandle kwenhlekelele emva kwenhlekelele.
Kwakungamanga ukuthi iBhomu lingavikela iPakistan, abantu bayo noma amabutho ayo. Kunalokho, iye yasisiza yasiletha kulesi simo esinzima kakhulu futhi ayinayo indlela yokuphuma. Sekuyisikhathi sokuthi iPakistan iyeke ukuphikisa kwayo okungenangqondo esivumelwaneni se-Fissile Materials Cutoff, okungenzeka ukuthi, esingathinta i-India kakhulu kunePakistan. Sidinga amabhomu ambalwa nhlangothi zombili, hhayi ngaphezulu.
Umbhali ufundisa i-nuclear ne-particle physics e-Islamabad naseLahore
Ishicilelwe ku-Express Tribune, February 5th, 2011.
