Esikhathini esingaphezu konyaka odlule, osomaqhinga abavela emhlabeni wonke bebegubha ukuqinisekiswa kokugcina kweSivumelwano SaseParis sangoZibandlela wezi-2016, esimenyezelwe njengesinyathelo sokuqala esibandakanya wonke umhlaba esibheke kusixazululo esiphusile sezulu. Lesi sivumelwano sanconywa njengesinye sezimpumelelo zokusayina kukaMongameli Obama kanye nokunqoba “amandla athambile” indlela yakhe ezindabeni zomhlaba. Kepha noma kunjalo, kudala ngaphambi kokuthi uDonald Trump kanye neqembu lakhe lama-plutocrats kanye ne-neofascists baqale amandla bethembisa ukuhoxa esivumelwaneni, bekunemibuzo eminingi kunezimpendulo.
Okokuqala, khumbula ukuthi Isivumelwano saseParis sasisekelwe ngokuphelele emazweni athumela ngokuzithandela izinhlelo ezichaza "iminikelo" yawo ehlongozwayo ekuxazululeni isimo sezulu. Lokhu kwaba umphumela wokungenelela kuka-Obama no-Hillary Clinton engqungqutheleni yesimo sezulu yase-Copenhagen eyayingaphethwe kahle ngo-2009, lapho ithimba laseMelika lakubeka kwacaca ukuthi alisoze lavumelana nemingcele eyimpoqo, ebopha ngokomthetho ekungcoleni kokufudumala komhlaba. Nakuba iningi labamele iNingizimu emhlabeni wonke ezingqungqutheleni ze-UN ezilandelanayo bafuna ukulondoloza leso sici esimaphakathi se-Kyoto Protocol yango-1997, amazwe acebile ahlangana phakathi neminyaka ephakathi kweCopenhagen neParis ngemuva kombono wokuthi izinyathelo zesimo sezulu kufanele zibe ngokuzithandela.
Okwesibili, iSivumelwano saseParis sasingenazo izindlela zokuphoqelela. Nakuba umbhalo wawuchichima ngamagama anjengokuthi “ukucaca,” “ukuba sobala,” “ubuqotho,” “ukungaguquguquki,” nelithi “isifiso sokuvelela,” akukho ngokoqobo okungaqinisekisa ukuthi izifiso ezinjalo zingafezeka. Okuwukuphela kwendikimba esemthethweni egxile ekusetshenzisweni nasekuthobeleni igunyazwe “ukuba ibe sobala, ingabi nezitha futhi ingajezisi.” Amazwe ayanxuswa ukuthi avuselele iziphakamiso zawo njalo ngemva kweminyaka embalwa, ngethemba elishiwo lokuthi “Iminikelo Enqunyelwe Kuzwelonke” yokunciphisa isimo sezulu izoqina ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Kepha uma uMongameli uTrump noma lowo ongase abe nguMongameli uLe Pen ekhetha ukwenza okuphambene, akukho lutho ngaphandle kokucindezela kontanga okungacacile okumi endleleni.
Okwesithathu, izinhlelo ezihlukahlukene ezalethwa ngaphambi kweParis zasilela kakhulu kulokho okwakudingeka ukuze kuvinjelwe ukuwohloka okuyinhlekelele kwesimiso sezulu somhlaba. Ukuhlolwa okuhlukahlukene kwezinhlelo amazwe aziletha eParis kuphakamise umphumela osondela ku-3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3°F) wokufudumala ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwezimboni ngo-2100, okufushane kakhulu emhlosweni oshiwo wezinga eliphezulu lama-degree angu-2, kancane kancane umgomo wokulangazelela. ama-degree angu-1.5 kuphela ayefunwa izihambeli ezivela e-Afrika, eziqhingini ezincane nakwezinye izindawo. Siyazi, nokho, ukuthi ezingeni lamanje elingaphezudlwana kuka-1 degree Celsius (1.8°F) ekunyukeni okujwayelekile kwezinga lokushisa, sibhekene nesimo sezulu esingazinzile ngendlela ehlukile, iqhwa lase-Arctic liyanyamalala, futhi iziphepho eziyingozi, imililo yequbula, isomiso nezikhukhula kunomthelela omkhulu kakhulu. abantu abasengozini kakhulu emhlabeni. Amadigri amabili akude kakhulu nezinga “eliphephile” lokufudumala okumaphakathi; kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi kube yiphuzu lama-50-50 lapho isimo sezulu singashintsha khona noma singashintshi ngokushesha siye esimweni esinesiyaluyalu nesingenakubikezelwa.
Ukunyakaza kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke kuphendule kumphumela waseParis ngokubonisa okuhlaba umxhwele kokungabaza kanye nokubona izinto kusengaphambili. Izinkulungwane zabantu zagcwala imigwaqo yaseParis ngokwayo, zimemezela ukuthi ingqungquthela ye-UN isilele kakhulu kulokho obekudingeka, futhi imibhikisho efanayo yazwakalisa imiyalezo efanayo emhlabeni wonke. Ngentwasahlobo edlule, uchungechunge lwezehlakalo zomhlaba wonke ezithi “Break Free from Fossil Fuels” luvale okwesikhashana izindawo ezinkulu zokukhishwa kukaphethiloli kanye nezokuthutha kuwo wonke amazwekazi, okuhlanganisa nezenzo ezinkulu ezimelene nokuthuthwa kukawoyela ngojantshi enyakatho-mpumalanga nasenyakatho-ntshonalanga ye-US, ukuhlangana okukhulu ukuze kuvalwe. ezansi nemayini yamalahle angcolisa kakhulu eJalimane, kanye nokuvinjwa kwesikebhe echwebeni elikhulu lamalahle lase-Australia. Ekwindla edlule nasebusika, inkampa yase-Standing Rock eNyakatho Dakota ihlanganise ndawonye umbimbi olukhuthaza kakhulu lwemiphakathi yomdabu kanye namadlelandawonye esisawabona, futhi amakamu agqugquzelwa yi-Standing Rock selokhu avela ezindaweni zamapayipi amancane amaphrojekthi amakhulu kulo lonke izwe. E-US. Izishoshovu ezimaphakathi nentshonalanga ziphendula ngokuzimisela okusha kokuphonsela inselelo isinyathelo sokuphatha kukaTrump sokuvusa kabusha ipayipi elesabekayo le-Keystone XL, elizothutha uwoyela wetiyela onobuthi, usuka eCanada uya eGulf of Mexico.
Kusazobonakala, vele, ukuthi ukweqisa kwabaphathi bamanje kuzoyinciphisa kangakanani inqubekelaphambili yesimo sezulu esithatha isikhathi eside. I-Clean Power Plan ka-Obama ngokusobala isendaweni yokunquma, kodwa izilinganiso ezizimele ziye zaphakamisa isikhathi esithile ukuthi lokhu kumelele (okungcono kakhulu) isinyathelo esikhuphukayo esingaphezu kwebhizinisi-njengokuvamile. Amazwi amaningi akhuluma ngamazwe ngamazwe ekuphathweni kukaTrump afuna ukuthi i-US ihlale iyingxenye yeSivumelwano saseParis, ngethemba lokuthi singase sibe buthakathaka nakakhulu ukuze kusizakale izithakazelo zikaphethiloli wezinsalela zomhlaba wonke.
Khonamanjalo, ama-techno-optimists afana no-Bill Gates kanye no-Michael Bloomberg baphikisa ngokuthi izinzuzo zezomnotho zokuqhubeka nokuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo ziphoqa ngokwanele ukugcina ukunwetshwa kwazo kusendleleni iminyaka embalwa ezayo. Ezindaweni eziningi, ukufakwa okuvuselelekayo kakade sekubiza kakhulu kunezimboni zikaphethiloli, futhi umbiko omusha ovela ku-Union of Concerned Scientists uveza ukuthi izifundazwe ezinhlanu zase-US manje zithembele kuzinsiza ezivuselelekayo (okuhlanganisa namadamu amakhulu aphehlwa ngamanzi) ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-65 awo. ukukhiqizwa kwamandla kuhulumeni. Ukuqashwa kwamandla elanga nomoya womoya kusondela ngokushesha ngokuphindwe kashumi kwenani lemisebenzi yamalahle e-US, futhi cishe abantu abayizigidi ezimbili baqashwe ekongeni ugesi nokusebenza kahle. Amanani aphansi kawoyela abangele ukwehla ngokushesha ezinhlotsheni ezimbi kakhulu zokukhishwa kukaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi, nakuba ukukhuphuka kokuzenzakalela kokumba uwoyela ovamile negesi kuye kwathuthukisa kakhulu inzuzo yemisebenzi eminingi enjalo. Ngaleso sikhathi, imizamo eminingi yesimo sezulu yesifunda neyendawo iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa ngokwengxenye ifa elide lokungasebenzi kwesimo sezulu - futhi manje ukucekela phansi okukhulu - ezingeni likahulumeni.
Kepha izinyathelo ezincane azisanele, njengoba imiphumela yesimo sezulu esingazinzile sidala umonakalo emiphakathini emhlabeni jikelele. Ososayensi manje bayavuma ukuthi asinakumane sifise ukuphindela ezingxenyeni ezingu-350 esigidini ngasinye se-carbon dioxide, kodwa ukuthi umkhathi nawo “unesabelomali sekhabhoni” esinomkhawulo nesihlala sincipha. Uma sidlula lesi silinganiso esiphezulu ekukhishweni kwekhabhoni enqwabelene kusukela ekuqaleni kwesikhathi sikaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi, kungase kungenzeki ngokoqobo ukulungisa isimo sezulu ngaphambi kokuba kudlule izinkulungwane zeminyaka. Esikhathini eside ngaphambi kwalokho, izimo zomkhathi ezidingekayo ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuphila okuyinkimbinkimbi emhlabeni, ingasaphathwa eyokuthi impucuko yabantu ezinzile, ingashabalala unomphela. Sidinga ukuhlakaza umnotho wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi eminyakeni embalwa nje, sinciphise ukusetshenziswa njalo ngonyaka ngekusasa elibonakalayo. Ngakho-ke i-ajenda kaTrump ayikona nje ukuhlehla kwesikhashana, kodwa iwusongo olukhona ekusindeni kwethu. I New York Times abahleli bekhasi lemibono abazange benze ihaba lapho bekhuluma ngochungechunge lwakamuva lwezifundo zezemvelo ezivela emhlabeni wonke, “Iplanethi Ayikwazi Ukuma Lobu Bongameli.”
Siyazi futhi ukuthi abaphathi besikhathi esidlule, kanye nohulumeni emhlabeni jikelele, behlulekile ngokuphelele ukusebenzisa i-ajenda yesimo sezulu esisebenzayo. Inqubomgomo yamandla ka-Obama “konke okungenhla” yamandla, ehlanganisa izinto ezivuselelekayo nokusebenza kahle kwamandla ngenkathi ngesikhathi esifanayo inweba ukumba uwoyela ogwini kanye nolwandle, kwaba inhlekelele emhlabeni. Uhlelo lonxiwankulu oludinga ukukhula okungenamkhawulo - futhi oluhlale lubambe imisebenzi yethu kanye nenhlalakahle yezomnotho kulowo mgomo omkhulu - lungase luphendule ekuncipheni kokusetshenziswa kwezinsiza ngayo yonke intukuthelo yokuwohloka komnotho, luguqule imithelela emibi kakhulu kubantu abasengozini kakhulu. ngenkathi sitakule abacebile nabanamandla. Lokhu kuqinisa kuphela lokho okushiwo yizishoshovu zobulungiswa besimo sezulu isikhathi eside manje: ukuthi imikhankaso yezinyathelo zesimo sezulu ingaphumelela kuphela njengengxenye yenhlangano yenkululeko ephelele futhi ehlangene ngokugcwele. Kudingeka siphonse inselelo kuzo zonke izikhungo ezisola izinkinga zethu kubantu bokufika kanye nabantu abampofu ngesikhathi esifanayo zisongela ukuphila kwamaplanethi. Kudingeka siphonse inselelo kuzo zonke izinhlobo zengcindezelo, sakhe ezinye izindlela ezisimeme nezivuselelayo, futhi senze ngesibindi ekuqondeni kwethu ukuthi Iplanethi Ayisakwazi Ukuma Kulolu Hlelo Lwezomnotho.
Izophrintwa ngaphakathi I-Indypendent (NYC), May 2017
UBrian Tokar ungumbhali we Mayelana Nobulungiswa Besimo Sezulu: Imibono Ngenkinga Yesimo Sezulu futhi Ushintsho Lomphakathi (I-Compass Press entsha, 2014). Izixhumanisi zeminye imibhalo yakhe zingatholakala ku-inthanethi ku-social-ecology.org.