Climate activists like to say the Stone Age didn’t end because the world ran out of stones, the point being that the Fossil Fuel Age won’t end because the world runs out of fossil fuels. They’re right. But on days like today, many of them seem to forget the Stone Age didn’t end because the world’s leaders held press conferences to announce non-binding agreements on long-range stone-limitation goals.
The announcement that the United States and China will aim to cooperate on greenhouse-gas reductions is historic for the reasons everyone is saying it’s historic: The two largest carbon emitters are admitting they have a problem and committing to do something about it. President Obama and Xi Jinping have sent an important signal to the rest of the world that inaction is unacceptable, that global warming is a global enemy. They’ve improved the previously dim prospects for a global climate deal next year in Paris, ending the Alphonse-and-Gaston charade where developing countries and developed countries both insist they’re waiting for the other half of the world to do its part. It’s fair to say that without agreements like this one, the climate progress necessary to avoid a climate catastrophe would be impossible.
But the agreement itself is not really climate progress. It’s purely voluntary; the U.S. Senate would never ratify a binding treaty. It’s not overly ambitious; it sets goals for the U.S. (a 26-28% reduction of 2005 emissions levels by 2025) and China (a transition to 20% non-fossil energy by 2030) they might well have achieved anyway. The U.S. goal is paltry compared to that of the European Union, which includes a 40% reduction from 1990 emissions levels by 2030. China isn’t even committing to start reducing emissions for the next sixteen years. And there’s no apparent mechanism to translate any of these modest goals into a transition away from the coal-fired electricity and oil-based transportation that’s broiling the planet.
The good news is that in recent years, without any treaty or agreement, the U.S. and China have both taken real action that has led to real climate progress. In the U.S., Obama poured an astonishing $90 billion into clean energy in his 2009 stimulus bill, then pushed a variety of rules cracking down on coal plants and tightening fuel-efficiency standards. Today, coal-fired power production is already down 20% from 2005 levels, and another 10% of the coal fleet is scheduled for retirement. That’s partly because of the domestic natural gas boom, but U.S. wind production has tripled and solar power has increased more than tenfold during the Obama presidency. Obama has also enacted much stricter fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks; as a result, we’re guzzling significantly less gasoline.
At the same time, China has moved to ban coal plants around some of its smog-choked cities, while starting to push renewables in a massive way; its own 2009 stimulus included an almost incomprehensible $30 billion for its solar manufacturers. Its fast-growing economy is still frighteningly ravenous for coal, but significantly less ravenous than it was just a few years ago. Instead of building two new coal plants a week, the country is now building a new coal plant every two weeks—still unsustainable for the planet, but the trend is in the right direction.
This is not because the U.S. or China is run by tree-huggers, or because they want to earn brownie points with the international community, or even because the threat of climate catastrophe is so daunting that they’re willing to endure intense economic sacrifice. It’s because the economics of coal keep getting worse. The costs of pollution controls are getting higher, and cleaner alternatives are getting much cheaper. Solar prices have dropped 80 percent in six years. Even fossil-friendly Republican states like Oklahoma and Georgia have been swapping out coal plants for wind and solar plants—not to reduce emissions, but to save money.
You don’t see the U.S. or China ditching oil yet, because when it comes to transportation, there’s nothing cost-competitive with oil yet. Electric vehicles are getting cheaper, and their sales are doubling every year, but internal combustion engines still rule. No international agreement will change that—and until there are viable alternatives to oil, international agreements that try to change that by fiat will end up being ignored. Ultimately, it’s unrealistic to expect developing countries or developed countries to ignore the short-term economic interests of their people, even when medium-term environmental disaster looms.
After all, the end of the Stone Age had nothing to do with stones at all. It ended when the world found stuff it liked better. It ended when better technology could do the same things more efficiently. Governments can do a lot to promote cheaper alternatives to fossil fuels, but the Fossil Fuel Age won’t end until they’re here.
Everything else is just words.
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