Karachi – The bulk of the fighting in Afghanistan in the past week, which has claimed more than 300 lives among the Taliban, US-led forces, the Afghan National Army (ANA) and civilians, has taken place in the southern Pashtun heartland of the country.

However, the Taliban’s spring offensive is fast turning into a massive resistance against the foreign presence all over Afghanistan, and already some influential characters are jockeying for a post-spring role.

And the indications are that the resistance could transcend a simple Taliban-led insurgency to evolve into a powerful Islamic movement.

Thousands of Taliban have emerged in the provinces of Helmand, Ghazni, Urgzan, Kandahar, Kunar and Zabul, and in all of them the story is the same: where allied forces have taken on the Taliban, the ANA holds the “fort”. In places beyond the access of allied forces, the Taliban are in control.

In the less-populated Farah and Nimroze provinces, where the Taliban have a nominal presence, violent incidents against the ANA have begun. The same is true in western Herat province on the border with Iran.

Former acting Afghan premier Engineer Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai commented by telephone to Asia Times Online from Kabul, “There are now sporadic incidents of violence in northern Afghanistan. We are hearing news that rockets are being fired on coalition forces in Maidan Shahr [east of Kabul], and there have been incidents of bomb blasts and violence in the north. As to who is behind this, different people have different opinions. Some allege the Taliban, some allege Hizb-i-Islami-led [Gulbuddin] Hekmatyar and some call them unknown groups.”

With regard to the “unknown groups”, Asia Times Online spoke to a man who knows Afghan society and most of its characters inside out, former Pakistani army general and director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence Hamid Gul. Gul has for many years been associated with the various groups of the Afghan resistance, since the days it fought against the Soviets in the 1980s.

“Firstly, when this sort of mass resistance starts, it means that it is a collective decision of Afghans. So you can see that though the Taliban resistance is centered in a very specific area, sporadic incidents have erupted all over. To me, the Taliban may be one group, the HIA [Hizb-i-Islami] of Gulbuddin is a second and [Moulvi Yunus] Khalis’ HIA would be another.

“But there are tribes as well who would be digging in against allied forces in their specific areas. This is a specific Afghan style of rebellion in which parties fight throughout Afghanistan under their flag, but the tribes restrict themselves to their areas. All fight for the same cause, but under their own disciplines. All fighting factions develop a sort of understanding with each other,” Gul said.

This kind of “netwar” is very much the case in southern Afghanistan. The Taliban are in action under their commanders and the overall field command of Jalaluddin Haqqani, while the HIA is fighting under its commanders and various tribes are coordinating with the resistance.

However, in northern Afghanistan the situation is different. The main players with influence in the north are very much known, although most of them are sitting idle in Kabul, including Engineer Bashir Khan Baghlani, at one time the closest of Hekmatyar’s comrades.

Khan cooperated with the Taliban (on the instructions of Hekmatyar) after 1996 when the Taliban seized control of Kabul. As a result, the Taliban were able to take control of various northern Afghanistan areas up to Takhar.

However, the Taliban refused to give Khan an important portfolio and insisted that he live like an “ordinary private citizen”. That condition was unacceptable to a commander of Khan’s stature and he rebelled against the Taliban, for which he ended up in prison. After his release, he came to an arrangement with Ahmed Shah Masoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance that defied the Taliban in the far north of the country.

At the time of writing, Khan is still in Kabul, keeping a low profile. He is at peace with the allied forces, though he is considered loyal to Hekmatyar and he was prevented from contesting the last parliamentary elections.

Commented Gul: “I have known Bashir Khan Baghlani for ages. He is among those people who just cannot sit idle. This is a pure Afghan style of resistance in which one could be seen to be silent, but his aides, relatives and tribe would be active in the resistance. And when the resistance reaches a certain level, the main person goes back to his region to dig out his arms cache, which he would have stored a long time ago, and then joins hands with the resistance.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg you are watching; this situation will further escalate as the whole environment is now conducive to resistance,”
said Gul. “Russia is annoyed with the Americans, Iran is hostile to Western interests and Pakistan is no more in a position to adhere to American directives.

“The trade of raw opium [in Afghanistan] has reached US$2.4 billion, and the trade of narco-drugs has reached up to $4 billion. Where are the drugs going? Of course, they come from Afghanistan and go to Russia. Even if 10% of the trade is used for arms purchases, it serves the purpose of the resistance. And what else could Russia do to support the anti-US resistance but just turn a blind eye on the drug trade? And it is doing so,” said Gul.

Gul also argued that Pakistan, although it had positioned 80,000 men along the Durand Line that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan, was not able to police the Taliban in Pakistani territory.

“The Americans cannot stop infiltration through the Mexican border – how can we stop it [with Afghanistan]? Especially as the Durand Line is just an imaginary border, not a physical border,” said Gul.

Contacts in the Pakistani tribal areas of Bajaur and North Waziristan tell Asia Times Online that at least seven different tribal jirgas (councils) are meeting on a daily basis among the Afghan population.

And Miranshah Bazaar in North Waziristan is once again full of posters of Osama bin Laden and Hekmatyar, while slogans are written in support of the Taliban.

The jirgas are unanimous: there should be all-out war in Afghanistan.

Syed Saleem Shahzad  is Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can be reached at [email protected].

 

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