Autocatalytic Revolution

 

            Often, when we speak of effecting social or political change, we speak in terms of building momentum, or of reaching a tipping point.  We think of linear, incremental advances, like acquiring enough signatures on a petition, or gathering enough bodies at a protest to draw attention. The physics behind these statements, and thus the mindsets engendered, refer to a gradual build-up until, by an accumulation of additive efforts, desired results are obtained. Even the analogy of “achieving critical mass” fits this mindset, because the moment the chain reaction occurs can be accurately predicted (other factors being controlled), again, as the result of additive measures.

            But as we all know, change can also come seemingly out of the blue. It can break-out unpredictably and spread like wildfire. It isn’t that the ground hasn’t been prepared beforehand; it’s that no one sees change coming when it does. There may not appear to be any progress being made right up to the moment of transition.

This type of change is emergent, sigmoidal, and autocatalytic. The question I want to explore here is, “Can we learn anything from the study of this type of change that is applicable to our struggles for social and political reform?” Before attempting to answer that I’ll explain what I mean by emergent, sigmoidal, and autocatalytic.

I must say that I am no expert in the mathematics of Complexity Theory, where these concepts are studied. I am merely an interested layman.  Much of what I share here I have gleaned from a book written by Stuart Kauffman titled, At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity. I cannot attempt to do justice to Kauffman’s full theories here, for further information, please read his book. Essentially, he describes self-organizing principles present in systems with sufficient levels of chaos and complexity. He applies these theories to such varied topics as the origin and evolution of life, the development of ecosystems, economic systems, and cultural phenomenon. His last chapter, “An Emerging Global Civilization,” in particular, inspired this article.

Kauffman uses a simple example to help his readers understand the definition and the power of autocatalytic sets. He asks us to:

Imagine 10,000 buttons spread out on a wooden floor. Randomly choose two buttons and connect them with a thread. As you continue to do this, at first you will almost certainly pick up buttons that you have not picked up before. After a while, however, you are more likely to pick at random a pair of buttons and find that you have already chosen one of the pair.

As this process goes on, he explains, buttons start to become interconnected into larger clusters. A graph of this process shows a “very regular statistical behavior as one tunes the ratio of threads to buttons.” As the ratio of threads to buttons approaches 0.5, (one half as many threads as buttons), a phase transition occurs, the various clusters cross-connect into one giant cluster. A graph of this phenomenon produces a sigmoidal or S-shaped curve as the cluster increases in size suddenly and dramatically. This is an example of “order for free.” Organization arising spontaneously from chaotic complexity.

The simplicity of this illustration should not deceive us.  The buttons and threads are symbols meant to help us conceptualize the terms edges (threads), and nodes (buttons). Edges and nodes are elements of reaction graphs, which are used to illustrate complex interactions, such as molecular reactions within a solution. To summarize, as the ratio of edges to nodes increases, the emergence of an autocatalytic set becomes “almost inevitable.”

So what does this have to do with social and political change?

Kauffman asks, “Can cultural patterns be thought of as self-sustaining and mutually defining sets of beliefs, behaviors, roles?” This rhetorical question is assumed to be answered in the affirmative, although he quickly adds the following caveat, (important to add here as well), “Perhaps at present, the analogy is loose, more of a metaphor than the start of a real theory.”

A metaphor, yes, but as I watch events unfold across the Middle East and Northern Africa; as I watch the protests occurring from Greece, England, Israel, Chile, the United States, Italy, Spain, Syria, and elsewhere, I can’t help but imagine how apt this metaphor might be. It feels like a quickening, an emergence, an awakening, is occurring. There is something here more than the sum of its parts; something more than cumulative effort. I imagine all these instances as buttons, spread out across the global floor.

But what are the edges? What ties the buttons together to create the phase transition? Kauffman suggests we look to what biologist Richard Dawkins has termed memes.

Memes are like genes. Genes are small bits of “information” which operate and replicate in the biological realm. Memes are small bits of cultural and behavioral information which replicate in the social realm.  An actress on a popular television show changes her hairdo and suddenly women all over the country are asking their hairdressers for “the Rachel.” But memes need not be shallow; they can be profound. One nation watches its neighbor overthrow a dictator and is emboldened to do the same. Memes resonate. Memes replicate.

Bear in mind, memes, per se, are not necessarily productive. Only those memes which link the nodes and clusters of progressive movements concern us here. So what might these “progressive memes” be?

One lesson drawn from the Arab uprisings is that memes rooted in our basic humanity are particularly potent. The universal desires for peace and stability, for justice, equality and freedom resonate strongly. As neoliberalism imposes its procrustean agenda around the globe, international resistance will naturally coalesce around the commonalities of its abuses – austerity programs, wealth inequalities, ecological destruction, and the like. Think of the Egyptian protestor with his sign saying, “Egypt Supports Wisconsin Workers. One World, One Pain.” This is the message being communicated, “We are with you. We are fighting the same fight.”  I must admit I find it satisfying to think that the excessive abuses and procrustean nature of neoliberalism will produce the environment in which the memes to defeat it are fostered.

Another shared meme is the awareness that we cannot continue to treat our planet and its ecosystems with such wanton disregard. The sense of urgency associated with this meme accentuates its effectiveness. I hope concern for the Palestinian people will become another, connecting several clusters, as will the right of women everywhere to join modernity. I’m certain you can think of many others.

If these progressive memes do serve as edges joining progressive nodes, what can we learn from them? Is there any value in thinking in these terms? I believe there is.

First, there is the encouragement that the autocatalyzation or, “That Which We Have Waited For,” may occur at any moment. Although much work is done to provoke the phase transition we may not see any evidence of progress beforehand. The old cliché, “It’s always darkest before the dawn,” comes to mind. We may not see hierarchical architectures taking shape. We may not see stubborn governments responding to our petitions. This should not discourage us. There may be no apparent form until the phase transition is upon us. The autocatalytic process provides the form.

Second, the fact that the form is autocatalyzed does not mean that we have no control over it. Those memes which we choose to accentuate will be the leading edges in the process. The universal reaction against the abuses of neoliberalism, vocalized as universal reaction against the abuses of neoliberalism, can guide the process and influence the form. We can choose which threads sew the patchwork; which Values will be valued. We plant the seeds of tomorrow today.

Finally, thinking in these terms provides a Meta-Movement, a holistic framework. The problems we face are global, and so require global solutions. Local experiments provide not only local solutions but input for the overall effort. The contributions of each individual actor (the buttons) resonate throughout the framework, and the resonating framework provides feedback to each actor. This receiver-based optimization serves to fine-tune the system (this is the means by which geese fly in V-formation, another example of order for free). If the universal aspects of our local struggles are emphasized, the bonds will form naturally, but we must think this way to reap this benefit. We must see the importance of connections. We must rediscover our common humanity. At the heart of it, our entire struggle can be summarized as the struggle for human compassion to prevail against the forces arrayed to subjugate it. We would do well to draw strength from this.

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