儘管今天的公眾反對核武的抗議活動無法與重大事件相比 反核劇變 過去幾十年來,有明顯跡象顯示大多數美國人拒絕川普政府的核武政策。
川普政府自2017年上任以來,已將美國撤出 與伊朗的核協議, 廢除中程核武(INF)條約 與俄羅斯合作,並顯然放棄了 續簽《新削減戰略武器條約》 with Russia. After an overwhelming majority of the world’s nations agreed on a landmark UN 禁止核武條約 2017年XNUMX月,川普政府迅速宣布將 從不簽名 the treaty. The only nuclear arms control measure that the Trump administration has pursued―an agreement by North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program―appears to 已經崩潰了至少部分是因為川普政府對談判的處理嚴重不當。
而且,川普政府不僅沒有遵循民主、共和兩黨前任的核武軍控與裁軍政策,反而與其他國家重新陷入核武軍備競賽。 1.7萬億美元的計劃 to refurbish the entire U.S. nuclear weapons complex. Perhaps most alarming, it has 再次 和 再次 公開威脅要發動核戰。
這些政策與美國民意十分格格不入。
2018 年 XNUMX 月就川普讓美國退出伊朗核協議進行的美國人民調顯示, 芝加哥全球事務委員會 found that 66 percent of respondents preferred remaining within it. In February 2019, when the 芝加哥議會 surveyed Americans about U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, 54 percent opposed the action. Moreover, when Americans were presented with arguments for and against withdrawal, opposition to withdrawal rose to 66 percent.
國際與安全研究中心 at the University of Maryland also reported overwhelming public support for nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements. Polling Americans in early 2019, the Center found that two-thirds of respondents (including a majority of Republicans) favored remaining within the INF Treaty, while eight out of ten respondents wanted the U.S. government to extend the New START Treaty. Indeed, more than eight out of ten U.S. respondents backed new nuclear arms control treaties with Russia—findings similar to those of the 芝加哥議會報導稱,在 87 年初的一項民意調查中,2019% 的美國受訪者希望美國和俄羅斯能達成進一步的核武限制協議。
But just how much arms control and disarmament do Americans want? It might come as a shock to the many pundits in the mass media who have never mentioned the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, but roughly half the U.S. population supports nuclear abolition along the lines of the treaty. According to a YouGov 意見調查done in late September 2019, 49 percent of American respondents thought the United States should work with other nations to eliminate all nuclear weapons in the world. Only 32 percent disagreed, while 19 percent said they didn’t know.
When it comes to actual use of nuclear weapons, Americans are even clearer in their preferences. A YouGov/赫芬頓郵報民調 in August 2016 found that 67 percent of American respondents thought the U.S. government should never initiate a nuclear attack. In mid-2019, Zogby Analytics 調查 關鍵初選州的美國受訪者也發現,反對首先使用核武的比例非常高。
Not surprisingly, Donald Trump’s angry, impulsive behavior, coupled with his threats to launch nuclear attacks upon other nations, has left many Americans uneasy. This might help to explain why 68 percent of Americans surveyed in early 2019 by the 國際與安全研究中心 backed congressional legislation requiring that a president, before ordering a nuclear attack upon another nation, consult with congress and secure a congressional declaration of war upon that nation. As the U.S. congress has not passed a declaration of war since 1941, this opinion, too, provides a substantial challenge to current U.S. nuclear policy.
There are other indications, as well, that the American public wants a new approach. In July 2019, the U.S. Conference of Mayors, at its 87th annual meeting, unanimously passed 決議 calling on all U.S. presidential candidates “to pledge U.S. global leadership in preventing nuclear war, returning to diplomacy, and negotiating the elimination of nuclear weapons.” Calling for negotiations to replace the INF Treaty and to extend or replace the New START Treaty, the resolution demanded that candidates support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and renounce the option of first use of nuclear weapons.
公眾不滿的另一個跡像是「走出懸崖」運動的興起, 由...支持 numerous peace, environmental, religious, health, and other organizations. Endorsed by dozens of cities and towns across the country, it has also received the official backing of the state legislatures of California and Oregon, as well as of the New Jersey State Assembly and the Maine State Senate. The campaign 呼籲美國政府 透過以下方式「領導全球努力防止核戰」:「放棄首先使用核武的選擇」; 「終止任何美國總統發動核攻擊的唯一、不受限制的權力」; 「解除美國核武的一觸即發的警報」; 「取消以增強型武器取代整個核武庫的計畫」;並“積極尋求核武國家之間達成可核查的協議,以消除其核武庫。”
Looked at from the standpoint of most Americans and, indeed, survival in the nuclear age, this departure from the dangerous direction of U.S. nuclear policy makes a lot of sense. Looked at from the standpoint of candidates seeking election to national office, it would also make good politics.
勞倫斯·維特納博士,辛迪加 PeaceVoice是紐約州立大學奧爾巴尼分校的歷史學名譽教授。 他是 面對炸彈 (斯坦福大學出版社)。
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