Awọn igbona ni Washington ko ṣe daradara.
France, China, ati Russia - gbogbo awọn ọmọ ẹgbẹ ti o ni agbara ti Igbimọ Aabo - pẹlu Germany ni o lodi si ogun, awọn ọpa ẹhin wọn ni okun nipasẹ awọn ifihan alaafia nla ti Kínní 15-16. Bi awọn nkan ṣe n wo ni bayi, veto le jẹ ko wulo nitori Amẹrika yoo ni titẹ lile lati gba awọn ibo 9 affirmative ti a beere fun ni Igbimọ, bi awọn ọmọ ẹgbẹ Afirika mẹta ti Igbimọ ti tẹlẹ ti laini pẹlu Faranse.
Ifọwọsi Igbimọ Aabo kii ṣe ilana nikan. O pese ideri eyiti o le jẹ pataki fun ọpọlọpọ awọn orilẹ-ede lati ṣe atilẹyin ogun AMẸRIKA.
Ni Ilu Italia, Prime Minister ti apa ọtun Silvio Berlusconi - ti nkọju si imọran gbogbo eniyan ti o lodi si ogun, awọn ifihan nla, ati irokeke idasesile gbogbogbo lati ile-iṣẹ iṣowo ti orilẹ-ede ti o tobi julọ - ti kede pe o fẹ aṣẹ Igbimọ Aabo.
Ni Ilu Sipeeni, ẹgbẹ Prime Minister Jose Maria Anzar tọpa awọn Socialists ni awọn idibo ero fun igba akọkọ ni ọdun mẹta, ati pe oun paapaa ti pe ni aṣẹ Igbimọ Aabo.
Most critically, Britain’s Tony Blair — Bush’s most craven supporter – faces a population heavily anti-war, the largest political demonstration in his country’s history, and revolt in his own party. In the words of one expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Blair “desperately needs UN backing.”
Iṣoro fun iṣakoso Bush ni pe laisi aṣẹ Igbimọ Aabo Amẹrika le ma ni awọn ọrẹ pataki eyikeyi, eyiti o le jẹ ki ogun ni iṣelu ko ṣeeṣe. Awọn ibo tun ṣafihan pupọ julọ ti awọn ara ilu Amẹrika ni ilodi si eyikeyi ikọlu AMẸRIKA kan. Laibikita idilọwọ awọn ọlọpa ipinnu ipinnu ni Ilu New York ni Oṣu Kẹta ọjọ 15 jẹ gaan gaan, ati awọn ifihan jakejado orilẹ-ede fihan iwọn ti alatako naa.
Awọn ipinnu egboogi-ogun ti kọja nipasẹ awọn ilu ati awọn ilu ni gbogbo orilẹ-ede - kii ṣe ni Berkeley, Ann Arbor, ati Cambridge nikan, ṣugbọn ni Atlanta, Austin, Baltimore, Boulder, Chicago, Cleveland, Des Moines, Detroit, Gary, Jersey City , Milwaukee, New Haven, Newark, Paterson, Philadelphia, Providence, San Francisco, Santa Fe, Seattle, Syracuse, ati Washington DC., laarin awọn miiran.
Nitorinaa Bush ni iyara nilo ipinnu UN kan ati pe o nilo laipẹ - idaduro pupọ yoo dabaru pẹlu akoko akoko Pentagon ati gba atako lati dagba paapaa ni okun sii.
Akowe ti Ipinle Colin Powell igbiyanju iṣaaju lati yi Igbimọ Aabo ko ni aṣeyọri. Awọn iṣeduro rẹ ti asopọ Iraaki-Al Qaeda ko da ẹnikan loju (oju opo ohun ija kemikali Al Qaeda ti a fi ẹsun ni Iraq jẹ ariyanjiyan nipasẹ awọn oṣiṣẹ Kurdish, awọn onirohin lori aaye naa, ati oye ti o wọpọ: yoo Washington yoo ti gba iru ohun elo laaye lati wa ninu agbegbe iṣakoso kii ṣe nipasẹ Saddam Hussein, ṣugbọn nipasẹ awọn Kurds?). Ifihan wiwo rẹ ni awọn iyaworan awọn oṣere (gimmick kan ti o jẹ aṣáájú-ọnà nipasẹ Reagan Pentagon, ti o nro awọn eto ohun ija Soviet ti ko si) ati awọn fọto ti olubẹwo ohun ija UN Hans Blix tẹnumọ ni ṣiṣi si awọn itumọ pupọ.
Isakoso Bush ni ireti ikẹhin kan fun gbigba ipinnu Igbimọ Aabo kan: kiko Iraqi lati ni ibamu pẹlu awọn ibeere ti o han gbangba lati ọdọ awọn oluyẹwo ohun ija.
Mẹta iru awọn ibeere wa ni ere. Ọkan ni ifarabalẹ pe Iraaki ngbanilaaye awọn ọkọ ofurufu ibojuwo nipasẹ awọn ọkọ ofurufu U-2 ati awọn ọkọ ofurufu miiran. Iṣoro naa nibi ni pe awọn ọkọ ofurufu wọnyi waye ni akoko kanna ti awọn ọkọ ofurufu AMẸRIKA ati Ilu Gẹẹsi n fo lori Iraq, laisi aṣẹ lati Igbimọ Aabo; Iraaki lẹẹkọọkan dojukọ awọn ọkọ ofurufu ogun wọnyi ati awọn ọkọ ofurufu ija ni igbagbogbo bombu awọn ibi-afẹde Iraqi.
In such a situation, Iraq would either have to give the U.S.-U.K. warplanes free rein or else risk hitting one of the U-2s. Nevertheless, it seems as if Iraq has acceded to this demand, depriving Washington of an excuse for war. A second demand is that Baghdad permit Iraqi scientists to be interviewed without handlers present and without tape-recording. It seems as if Iraqi concessions will be forthcoming on this point as well. The third demand, however, is likely to be harder to resolve. According to the terms of Security Council resolution 687 from 1991 – the resolution that called for the elimination of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction – Iraq was banned from possessing any missiles with a range greater than 150 kilometers (93.2 miles). The logic here was that Iraq was entitled to maintain weapons for self-defense, but not weapons that could strike as far as Israel, as had occurred during the 1991 Gulf War. Now, however, the weapons inspectors have reported that an Iraqi missile, the al-Samoud 2, exceeds the permitted range. Bush administration officials and its foreign mouthpieces have maintained that the excess range of the al-Samoud missile represents – in various Blair formulations — a “serious breach,” “a significant breach,” “a very serious breach.” However, the extra range is of virtually no military consequence. Instead of 150 kilometers, the missiles could travel 180 kilometers – hundreds of kilometers short of being able to hit Israel. The editor of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets has stated that firing the missiles past their allowed range offered Iraq little military advantage. And the Washington Post noted that “U.N. diplomats and missile experts maintain that the current ranges of Iraq’s missiles do not significantly alter the military balance in the region.”
Pẹlupẹlu, awọn ara Iraaki jiyan pe idi ti diẹ ninu awọn ọkọ ofurufu idanwo ti al-Samoud ti kọja awọn ibuso 150 jẹ nitori pe awọn ohun ija ko ni iwuwo nipasẹ eto itọnisọna; nigba ti tunto ni deede, wọn ṣetọju, ibiti o wa laarin awọn opin ti a fun ni aṣẹ.
Those eager for war have argued that the excess range, even if militarily insignificant, is – in the words of Australian Prime Minister John Howard — “further evidence of a long pattern of deceit and evasion and trickery,” just “another example of Iraq’s refusals to abide by the decisions” of the Security Council.” But in fact, the information on the test flights was provided by Iraq in October 2002 and again in its 12,000 page declaration of Dec. 7, 2002. So, far from showing Iraqi deceit and deception, the al-Samoud is an example of Iraq offering information to the inspectors.
Síbẹ̀síbẹ̀, awuyewuye gidi kan ohun tí yóò ṣẹlẹ̀ sí àwọn ohun ọ̀ṣẹ́ náà nísinsìnyí. Ni Oṣu Keji ọjọ 21, Blix fi lẹta ranṣẹ si Iraaki n beere pe ki Iraq pa ohun ija naa run ati gbogbo awọn ohun elo ti o jọmọ ti o bẹrẹ ni Oṣu Kẹta Ọjọ 1. Fi fun irokeke ogun ti o sunmọ, ati otitọ pe nipa idaji awọn 100-120 al-Samoud ti tẹlẹ ti jiṣẹ. si ọmọ ogun Iraqi, o rọrun lati rii idi ti Baghdad kii yoo ni itara lati fi awọn ohun ija wọnyi silẹ. Nitoribẹẹ, Saddam Hussein yoo ni imọran daradara lati yọ awọn misaili kuro lọnakọna - iye wọn ni idilọwọ ikọlu AMẸRIKA jẹ daju pe o kere si ipalara wọn ni jijẹ ẹtọ ẹtọ ati nitorinaa o ṣeeṣe ti ikọlu. Ṣugbọn kini ti Hussein ba kọ? Ṣe eyi jẹ idalare fun ogun bi?
Ó kéré tán, ìdí mẹ́ta ló wà tí irú ìkọ̀sílẹ̀ bẹ́ẹ̀ kò fi pèsè àwọn ìdí tí ó péye nípa ìwà rere láti lọ sí ogun. Ni akọkọ, awọn idiyele nla ti ogun - eewu si awọn igbesi aye awọn ọgọọgọrun egbegberun awọn ara ilu Iraqi alaiṣẹ, iṣeeṣe ti o pọ si ti ipanilaya agbaye, iṣeeṣe ti rudurudu nla jakejado Aarin Ila-oorun, ofin ti ifiagbaratelẹ ile siwaju, ati iyipada ti Awọn ọkẹ àìmọye dọla ti o yẹ ki o lo lori awọn iwulo eniyan - ko tọsi lojiji nitori pe awọn ohun ija Iraaki ni ibiti o ti 180 ibuso dipo 150.
Keji, lakoko ti o kọ ibeere kan lati ọdọ awọn olubẹwo rú awọn ipinnu ti Igbimọ Aabo, dajudaju awọn irufin miiran ti awọn ipinnu Igbimọ Aabo - nipasẹ Israeli, Tọki, ati Indonesia, laarin awọn miiran - ti o ṣe pataki pupọ ju ohun ija ohun ija ti ko ṣe pataki ti ologun. ibiti o. Sibẹsibẹ ko si ẹnikan ti o ronu ogun bi ojutu ninu awọn ọran to ṣe pataki diẹ sii.
Third, while an Iraqi refusal to give up the al-Samoud is wrong, it is hardly surprising. U.S. officials have been working for months to discourage Iraqi cooperation with the weapons inspectors. They have essentially been saying to Saddam Hussein: give us access to all your military facilities, give us the right to discover the location of all your weapons factories, military bases, and the like, give us the right to fly spy planes over your territory unimpeded, and when this is all done, regardless of what the Security Council says, the United States will still be committed to “regime change.” Such a message is hardly designed to inspire Baghdad’s compliance. And now Washington is further insisting that Iraq destroy its most modern missiles.
Eyikeyi kiko Iraqi lati yọkuro al-Samoud wa ni oju awọn iṣe AMẸRIKA ti o jẹ ilodi si ofin UN Charter. Iwe-aṣẹ naa ṣe idiwọ ni gbangba kii ṣe lilo agbara nikan laisi boya aṣẹ Igbimọ Aabo tabi ni aabo ara ẹni, ṣugbọn paapaa irokeke agbara (Abala II, Abala 4). Sibẹsibẹ ko si ẹnikan ti o le ṣiyemeji pe Washington ti n halẹ agbara si Iraq. Ko si aṣẹ Igbimọ Aabo fun eyikeyi iru irokeke bẹẹ, tabi ko si ikọlu ologun eyikeyi nipasẹ Iraaki lodi si Amẹrika, ati nitorinaa awọn irokeke wọnyi jẹ arufin patently.
Ṣugbọn kii ṣe ọrọ kan ti awọn irokeke AMẸRIKA nikan. Orilẹ Amẹrika tun ti ru ofin Charter lodi si lilo agbara laisi aṣẹ ti o yẹ. Awọn oṣiṣẹ AMẸRIKA ti gba pe awọn ọmọ ogun AMẸRIKA (ati Tọki) ti wa ni ilẹ ni Iraq (Wash. Post, Feb. 13). Otitọ ni pe ko si ipinnu Igbimọ Aabo ti o ṣe idajọ awọn iṣe ogun wọnyi - ṣugbọn Charter ko sọ pe lilo agbara jẹ iyọọda niwọn igba ti Igbimọ ko ba jẹbi. Dipo o ṣe idiwọ lilo agbara ayafi ti Igbimọ fun ni aṣẹ (tabi ni aabo ara ẹni, eyiti ko ṣe pataki nibi).
Fun ọdun mejila awọn ọkọ ofurufu AMẸRIKA ati Ilu Gẹẹsi ti n fo lori agbegbe Iraq laisi aṣẹ eyikeyi ati ikọlu radar Iraqi ati awọn ohun elo ọkọ ofurufu ti o gbiyanju lati dabaru pẹlu wọn. Ni awọn oṣu aipẹ, sibẹsibẹ, awọn ọkọ ofurufu AMẸRIKA-UK ti n dojukọ awọn aaye ologun laisi idawọle eyikeyi ti o ṣe igbeja. Fun apẹẹrẹ, ni ọsẹ to kọja yii wọn kọlu ni dada si awọn aaye misaili dada - eyiti ko ṣe eewu si awọn ọkọ ofurufu ogun naa. Ni awọn ọrọ miiran, AMẸRIKA n tẹnumọ pe Iraaki fi diẹ ninu awọn misaili rẹ silẹ ti o le ni imọ-ẹrọ kọja iwọn ti a gba laaye ni akoko kanna ti AMẸRIKA n ṣe awọn iṣe ogun aibikita si Iraq. Iwọnyi kii ṣe iṣiro awọn ayidayida lati mu ifowosowopo Iraqi pọ si.
Ètò àti ìkórajọpọ̀ ogun tí a kò tíì rí tẹ́lẹ̀ rí, papọ̀ pẹ̀lú ẹgbẹ́kẹ́gbẹ́ àwọn ọmọ ogun àgbáyé olówó gọbọi, ti mú kíákíá tí ìjọba Bush ń kánjú sí ogun jẹ́. Ṣugbọn a nilo lati wa ni imurasilẹ lati koju ati ṣipaya akitiyan wọn ti o kẹhin ti lilo ohun ija al-Samoud gẹgẹ bi asọtẹlẹ fun iwa alaimọ ati ogun ajalu.