Njengoko unyulo lwaphakathi enyakeni lusondela ngokukhawuleza, abantu abaninzi baseMelika baya kuqala ukucinga ngakumbi nangakumbi ngoqoqosho ngaphambi kokuba bathathe isigqibo sokuba bavote njani. Kulo mongo, ibango likaTrump lokuba uqoqosho lwase-US phantsi kolawulo lwakhe "lukhulu kakhulu kwimbali" kufuneka luhlolwe ngokucokisekileyo nangokucokisekileyo ukuze luhlukanise iinyani kwiintsomi. Ingakanani "yokubuyiselwa" okuqhubekayo okuviwa ngabasebenzi abaqhelekileyo baseMelika? Kwaye kuthekani ngemfazwe kaTrump ekhulayo yorhwebo kunye neTshayina, esele iqala ukuba nefuthe kubathengi baseMelika kunye nabavelisi abahlukeneyo base-US, ngelixa benza iifemu zaseYurophu zixhalabile? Kolu dliwano ndlebe lukhethekileyo, uGerald Epstein, unjingalwazi wezoqoqosho kunye nomphathiswa weZiko loPhando lwezoQoqosho lwezoPolitiko kwiYunivesithi yaseMassachusetts e-Amherst, ucoca umoya kwiintsomi ezininzi kunye neengcinga ezingezizo malunga nophuhliso athe uTrump wazama ukulubumba njenge "ummangaliso wezoqoqosho. "
I-C.J. Polychroniou: I-Trump ithanda ukuziqhayisa ngokuvuselela kwezoqoqosho kwimilinganiselo yembali phantsi kolawulo lwakhe, olubandakanya imarike yabasebenzi eyomeleleyo, i-stock market eyomeleleyo, kunye ne-4 yepesenti ye-GDP. Ziziphi iinyani kunye neentsomi malunga nommangaliso wezoqoqosho kaTrump? Sinike ibali elipheleleyo.
UGerald Epstein: UTrump ulibaxa elibi elithanda ukwakha amabali. Xa kuziwa kumabango akhe malunga nommangaliso wezoqoqosho oqhubekayo ngexesha lolawulo lwakhe, ndicinga ukuba umhlobo wam kunye nogxa wam uJohn Miller kwisebe lezoqoqosho kwiKholeji yaseWheaton wayibeka kakuhle kwintetho ye-30 kaSeptemba kwiYunivesithi yaseMassachusetts Amherst: "Xa kuthelekiswa umgangatho wendlela yokusebenza kwezoqoqosho eUnited States ukususela ngowe-1948, besiphila kukukhula kwezoqoqosho ebekukudala ixesha elide ngokwembali, okucothayo ngokwembali, kwaye oko akuzange kwenze ngokwembali ukuphucula ubomi babantu abaninzi.”
Kukhuselekile ukuthi, njengoko uMiller kunye nabanye oosoqoqosho abaninzi bebonisa, ukucutha irhafu yenkampani akuzange kuvelise i-boom yotyalo-mali okanye i-stock market boom. Idatha ibonisa ukuba kwikota yesibini ye-2018, utyalo-mali lwezindlu waqhubeka ukwehla, kunye nenkcitho kwizixhobo ezitsha, inxalenye enkulu yotyalo-mali, ikhule isiqingatha ngokukhawuleza njengoko yayiphelile ekupheleni kwe-2017, ngaphambi kokunciphisa irhafu. Njengoko idatha exoxwe nguJosh Bivens weZiko loMgaqo-nkqubo woQoqosho bonisa, utyalo-mali lweshishini kwizakhiwo ezifana nezakhiwo zeofisi kunye neefektri ziye zanyuka ngokukhawuleza kakhulu kunangaphambi kokuthotywa kwerhafu, kodwa uninzi lwalo lwangena kwi-oyile negesi yokomba okubangele amaxabiso aphezulu ehlabathi amandla.
Njengoko uBill Lazonick, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwiYunivesithi yaseMassachusetts uLowell uye wachaza, ukucutha irhafu yenkampani kuye kwadala. umsinga wokuthengwa kwempahla oko kusendleleni yokufikelela kwi-800 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ekupheleni konyaka.
Ithini inkcazo ye-S & P 500 kunye ne-Dow yokubeka iirekhodi zexesha lonke phantsi kweTrump, kwaye yintoni impembelelo enokuthi i-stock market trends ibe nayo kubomi kunye nentlalontle yabantu baseMelika abaqhelekileyo?
Kuyinyani ukuba i-stock market iye yanda ukususela ekubeni i-Trump yonyulwa, kodwa iye yanyuka ukususela ekubeni i-recession iyancipha kwi-2009. Enyanisweni, amaxabiso esitokisi (i-S & P 500 ehlengahlengisiweyo kwi-inflation) inyuke nje ngeepesenti ze-2.1 ukususela ngo-1 Jan. ukuya kuSeptemba 1, i-2018 - icotha kakhulu kunangaphambili ekwandiseni, kunye nokunyuka kwamanani aphindwe kabini ngexesha lokwandiswa kwe-1990.
Kuphela kwiveki yesithathu kaSeptemba i-S & P 500 Stock Index kunye neDow Jones Index ekugqibeleni phezulu ngoJanuwari 2018 aphezulu.
Nangona kunjalo, kucacile ukuba oko kwakhethwa uTrump, abatyali-mali bezezimali bonwabile kwaye banethemba. I-ajenda yeRiphabhlikhi yokunciphisa irhafu kunye nokunciphisa ummiselo kuye kwandise kakhulu inzuzo yenkampani kunye nolindelo lwenzuzo engaphezulu yenkampani, kwaye ezi zinyusa amaxabiso esitokhwe.
Kodwa uninzi lwezitokhwe zezabantu abazizityebi kakhulu. Ngokutsho kukaEdward Wolff, abona bantu bazizityebi abali-10 ekhulwini banempahla ekufutshane nama-90 ekhulwini. Ke xa imarike yemasheya inyuka ngexabiso, sele isisityebi kakhulu esixhamlayo.
Ngoku ezinye zezi zinokuhla njengotyalo-mali kunye nemisebenzi kodwa oku kubonakala kunomda. Njengoko benditshilo ngaphambili, asiboni ukwanda kotyalo-mali kwiifektri kunye nezixhobo ngenxa yokunciphisa irhafu kunye nokunyuka okuhambelanayo kwixabiso lemarike yemasheya. Kuyinyani ukuba xa imarike yemasheya inyuka kakhulu inokunyusa ukusetyenziswa kwabo banezitokhwe kwaye ezinye zazo zinokuhla xa ukonyuka kwemfuno yabathengi kukhulisa uqoqosho. Kodwa nanku umbuzo ubungakanani bempembelelo - eyona nto ithobekileyo - kunye nefuthe kumvuzo.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, oku kunyuka kokusetyenziswa kunye nokwehla kwentswela-ngqesho akukhange kukhokelele kwindlela yokunyuka kwemivuzo, xa ukunyuka kwexabiso lentengo kuthathelwa ingqalelo. Imivuzo yabantu inokuba nkulu kancinane kodwa kunjalo namaxabiso okuphila. Ngoko ke, uqoqosho lukhangeleka lusabambekile kakhulu kwixesha lemivuzo eguquguqukayo elungelelaniswe nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ethe yasithwaxa ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-40. Uqoqosho lukaTrump alukaphumi kulo mgxobhozo.
Izizathu zoku zibonakala zininzi: esona sikhulu kukuncitshiswa kwamandla othethathethwano lwabasebenzi ngenxa yohlaselo lwezopolitiko lweminyaka engama-40 kwimibutho kunye namalungelo othethathethwano lwabasebenzi. Okwesibini kunxulumene nenkangeleko yamanye amagunya orhwebo ehlabathi afana neTshayina kwindawo yesiganeko kunye nempendulo yongxowankulu baseMelika kunye nabezopolitiko kolu tshintsho lubalulekileyo lwesakhiwo.
UTrump wenze ukuncitshiswa kwentsilelo yorhwebo enye yeenjongo zakhe eziphambili, ezichaza ngokuyinxenye ukungcakaza kwakhe ngeemfazwe zorhwebo, iirhafu kunye nokhuseleko kunye nemigaqo yakhe ebizwa ngokuba yi "America First". Nangona kunjalo, i-US yorhwebo intsilelo, ngokumangalisayo ngokwaneleyo, iye yanda kakhulu (ingakumbi ne-China) phantsi kolawulo lukaTrump. Ngaba ukwanda kwentsilelo yorhwebo yisiphumo esithe ngqo semfazwe yorhwebo?
Hayi. Ukonyuka kwentsilelo yorhwebo ikakhulu kubangelwe kukuba uqoqosho lwase-US beluqhubeka lukhula kwaye lusanda kukhula ngokukhawuleza. Naluphi na uqoqosho olukhulayo luya kwandisa ukuthengwa kwempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle; ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe akukhokelela ekukhuleni - okungekho e-US kwaye akuzange kube ngamashumi eminyaka - ngoko ukusilela kwezorhwebo kuphantse kukhule. Kodwa into ebonisayo kukuba umgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo weTrump awuzange uguqule ukuxhomekeka kwelizwe kwe-US kwiintsilelo zorhwebo, eziye zanda kwiminyaka eyi-40 edlulileyo.
Kutshanje, iinkampani ezininzi zokuvelisa zase-US zingqine ukuba iimfazwe zorhwebo zikaTrump kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu ziya kwandisa zombini iindleko zemveliso kunye neendleko zokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, zibangele ukudilizwa kunye nobomi obubi, ngelixa zisilela ukuphucula ukhuphiswano okanye ukukhuthaza ukukhula okongeziweyo. Ukunikezelwa kwayo yonke le nto, yeyiphi eyona njongo emva kwemfazwe yorhwebo neTshayina, kwaye ngaba iirhafu ziya kunyuka kubasebenzi base-US kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi?
UTrump ukholelwa ukuba unokuphumelela inkxaso yezopolitiko kwisiseko sakhe ngokubetha abantu basemzini kunye "nabanye" - ngaba ngabemi baseMexico nabaseMzantsi Melika, amaSulumane, ama-Afrika aseMelika kunye nabasetyhini, nokuba imigaqo yakhe ilimaza isiseko sakhe ngokwezoqoqosho. Usebenza ngokukhethekileyo kudidi [lwelizwe elimhlophe] "ipolitiki yesazisi" kwaye unobuchule bokukhohlisa abantu. Kuba isityebi, uhambisa iimpahla…. Ukholelwa ukuba angakwazi ukuyiphepha le nto nokuba ulimaza isiseko sakhe kwezoqoqosho. Ukholelwa ukuba angabeka i-lipstick kwiihagu zentengiso kwaye isiseko sakhe siya kuyithenga. Mhlawumbi unyanisile. Siza kubona.
Ke, ewe: imfazwe yokurhweba ayiqalileyo inokuvakala ilungile kwisiseko sakhe, kodwa inokulimaza uninzi lwabo, njengoko iCanada, iYurophu kunye neTshayina zikrelekrele xa ziphindisela, zisazi kakuhle ukuba ziya kulimaza isiseko sakhe.
Ke inxalenye yenjongo yakhe kukutshisa isiseko sakhe ngokuba ngqwabalala kwabasemzini. Kodwa umlo neTshayina ungaphezulu koko. UTrump uthathe isigqibo sokuba i-US ikumzabalazo wamandla kunye ne-China kulawulo lwehlabathi. Akangongxowankulu wokuqala wase-US ukukholelwa oko. Amaqhinga ase-US athethe ngokwenza i-pivot e-China ngaphezulu kweshumi leminyaka ngoku. UTrump ugqibe kwelokuba ajonge eTshayina.
Izivumelwano zakhe zokurhweba, ezifana ne-NAFTA entsha, ziqulethe amacandelo afuna ukuba iKhanada neMexico bazise i-US ukuba baya kwenza nayiphi na izivumelwano zorhwebo kunye neChina; kwaye kukho izinto ezahlukeneyo kuzo ezizama ukutyhafisa izivumelwano ezinjalo neTshayina. Ke oku konke kuyinxalenye yelinge lokudala imfazwe entsha ebandayo ne China.
Iimfazwe ezibandayo ziluncedo koongxowankulu. Basenokuthethelela inkcitho enkulu emkhosini; banokuthethelela ukuthanda izwe kunye nokuchitha inkcaso; banokukuthethelela ukunyaniseka kwinkokeli eyomeleleyo.
Esinye isizathu sokuba uTrump alandele le migaqo-nkqubo kukuba banokwahlula intshukumo yabasebenzi kunye neeDemokhrasi. Xa uSteve Bannon esendleleni ephuma kulawulo lweTrump, waqhagamshelana noRobert Kuttner we-American Prospect kwaye wathi ufuna ukwenza umanyano lwekhohlo / ekunene malunga norhwebo. Yena kunye noTrump baye baphumelela ngokuyinxenye koku. I-United Steelworkers Union ixhase iirhafu zakhe kwintsimbi. Kakhulu - kodwa ayizizo zonke - zabasebenzi abalungelelanisiweyo banike inkxaso yovavanyo kwi-NAFTA entsha kaTrump, nangona zimbalwa kakhulu iimpawu ezintle zomsebenzi kwisivumelwano.
I-NAFTA entsha nayo inezinto ezininzi ezimbi kakhulu, ezibandakanya ukujongelwa phantsi kwemimiselo yokusingqongileyo, ukwanda kokhuseleko lwelungelo elilodwa lomenzi wechiza, imida ekukwazi ukunqanda amaxabiso amayeza kunye nezinye izibonelelo zokuthengwa kwabathengi.
Kangangokuba, nemibutho yabasebenzi kunye namaqela afana naBemi boLuntu baye bathandabuza ukuyivuma ngokupheleleyo okwangoku.
Ngaba unayo naziphi na iingqikelelo malunga nendlela ibali lemfazwe ye-Trump yokurhweba ngokumelene neChina kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yakhe yezoqoqosho iyonke iya kuphela?
Ngokubanzi, imigaqo-nkqubo kaTrump iya kubonakala iphazamisa kakhulu. Inkqubo yokurhweba iya kuphuhlisa iintanda ezininzi, amatyathanga obonelelo zorhwebo ziya konakala, kwaye amaza ukwanda evela kucutho lwerhafu kuya kucima kungekho nto iseleyo kodwa intsilelo kunye nongxowankulu adumbileyo ukubonisa ngayo. Kodwa oku akuyi kuthetha ingxaki yezopolitiko kuTrump kunye namaRiphabhlikhi. Ukuze kwenzeke oko, iiDemokhrasi kunye nekhohlo kufuneka zingacacisi kuphela ukuba zeziphi zonke iingxaki kwii-charades zezoqoqosho zikaTrump kunye neRiphabhlikhi, kodwa kufuneka zikhuthaze ezinye zazo ngokungenasiphelo, kwaye ngendlela edibeneyo. Ikhohlo liye laqulunqa imimiselo eqinile yemigaqo-nkqubo enokujongana neengxaki ezijongene nabemi abaninzi base-US - ukunakekelwa kwezempilo okuhlawulelwayo omnye, ukuphakamisa umvuzo omncinci, i-Green New Deal, ukuphula iibhanki zaseWall Street kunye nokukhuthaza ezinye iindlela zezimali, ukunyuka kwerhafu osisityebi, utyalo-mali lweziseko zokwenyani, imfundo efikelelekayo nephuculweyo, kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle ojolise kuxolo. Le yi-ajenda ephumelelayo. Ukuba i-economists, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nabagqugquzeli banokuqhubeka nokuphuhlisa le nkqubo kwaye bayikhuthaze ngokungapheliyo, ngoko xa uqoqosho lweTrump luwa, lukhohlo olunokuphumelela ngeprogram esebenzayo enokusebenzela ngokwenene abaninzi.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela