Izihloko zamva nje kumaphephandaba ase-US malunga nokukhula koqoqosho okuzayo okubhengezwe lutshintsho lwerhasi ye-shale kungakhokelela ekubeni ucinge ukuba siqubha ngokoqobo kwi-oyile. Uthotho lweengxelo kunyaka ophelileyo, ngakumbi i-International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) ngoNovemba ka-2012, iqikelela ukuba i-US iya kudlula iSaudi Arabia njengomvelisi we-oyile omkhulu wehlabathi ngo-2017, ibe, njengoko iReuters ibeka, "konke kodwa ukuzimela ngokwemiqathango yenetha" kwimveliso yamandla. Ngokutsho kwe-IEA, ukonyuka okuqikelelweyo kwemveliso ye-oyile ukusuka kwi-84 mbpd (imiphanda yezigidi ngosuku) ngo-2011 ukuya kwi-97 mbpd ngo-2035 kuya kuvela "ngokupheleleyo kulwelo lwegesi yendalo kunye nemithombo engaqhelekanga" - ubukhulu becala ioyile ye-shale kunye negesi - ngelixa imveliso yeoyile eqhelekileyo. iya kuqala ukuwa ukusuka ngo-2013.
Ezi zixhobo zinokwembiwa kuphela ngexabiso lokungcoliseka kwendalo okukhulu: ukukhutshwa kwazo kubandakanya ukuqhekeka kwe-hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"; inaliti ecinezelekileyo yomxube wamanzi, isanti kunye nezicoci zokucoca ukudala iintanda ezintsha kwilitye ukunyanzela ukuphuma kwegesi), kusetyenziswa. ubuchule bokomba othe tye (1). Kodwa ukuxhaphazwa kwabo e-US kuzise ukudalwa kwamakhulu amawaka emisebenzi kwaye kunika inzuzo yamandla angabizi kwaye aninzi. I-Exxon Mobil's 2013 Energy Outlook ithi uguquko lwerhasi ye-shale izakwenza i-US ibe ngumrhwebi ngaphandle ngo-2025. Ubuthathaka obuqhubekayo boqoqosho lwehlabathi kufuneka bunike ithuba lokucinga. Uqoqosho lwaseSpain olwakhe lwahluma - indawo yesine ngobukhulu kwi-Eurozone ngo-2008 - ngoku ikwimeko emaxongo njengoko iqamza lepropathi ekucingelwa ukuba alinakuthintelwa lagqabhuka ngokungalindelekanga kwangaloo nyaka mnye, namaxabiso ezindlu ehle ngesithathu. Kodwa abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo bafunde ezimbalwa
izifundo kwingozi ka-2008, kwaye inokuba sendleleni yokuphinda iimpazamo ezifanayo kwicandelo lepetroleum.
Uphando lweNew York Times luqale lwatyhila iintanda ezinkulu kwingxelo โye-shale boomโ ngoJuni ka-2011, yafumanisa ukuba izazinzulu zejoloji, amagqwetha ezoshishino kunye nabahlalutyi bezentengiso โngaseseโ babuza โukuba iinkampani zenza ngabom, kwaye nangokungekho mthethweni, zibaxa imveliso yamaqula azo. nobukhulu bemithombo yaboโ (2). Ngokutsho kwephepha, "irhasi isenokungabi lula kwaye ingabizi mali ukuyifumana kulwakhiwo lwe-shale enzulu ngaphantsi komhlaba njengoko zisitsho iinkampani, ngokutsho kwee-imeyile zeshishini kunye namaxwebhu angaphakathi kunye nohlalutyo lwedatha evela kumawaka wamaqula."
Ekuqaleni kwe-2012, abacebisi bamandla ababini base-US, bebhala kwi-flagship ye-British energy industry journal iPetroleum Review, yakhala i-alamu. Baqaphela "isiseko esinamandla samathandabuzo afanelekileyo malunga nokuthembeka kunye nokuqina kwee-US shale gas reserves" eziye "zinyuswe" phantsi kwemithetho emitsha yeKhomishini yoKhuseleko kunye noTshintshiselwano (SEC) eyaziswa kwi-2009 (3). Imithetho emitsha ivumela iinkampani zerhasi ukuba zifake ibango lobungakanani bovimba ngaphandle kophicotho oluzimeleyo lomntu wesithathu.
Dodgy economics of fracking
Uqikelelo olugqithisileyo lobungakanani bovimba kusetyenziswa ngoosomashishini abaphambili kwishishini le-oyile ukufihla uqoqosho olubi lokuqhekeka. Ngaphandle kweziphumo eziyingozi kwindalo esingqongileyo, ingxaki yenye yamazinga emveliso, aqala phezulu kodwa awe ngokukhawuleza. KwiNdalo, owayesakuba ngusosayensi oyintloko kurhulumente wase-UK uMhlekazi uDavid King, ebhala ngokubambisana noososayensi abavela kwiSikolo sakhe se-Oxford Smith soShishino kunye nokusiNgqongileyo, waphawula ukuba imveliso emaquleni yehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-60-90% kunyaka wokuqala (4) .
Ukwehla okukhawulezileyo okunjalo kwenze irhasi ye-shale ukuba ingabi nangeniso ngokucacileyo. Njengoko imveliso isihla, abaqhubi bayanyanzeleka ukuba bombe amaqula amatsha ukugcina amanqanaba emveliso kunye netyala lenkonzo. Ukuveliswa kwe-rocketing ekuqaleni, kudityaniswe nokudodobala koqoqosho, kuqhube amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yase-US ukusuka malunga ne-7-8 yesigidi se-cubic feet ngo-2008 ukuhla ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-3 yesigidi se-cubic feet ngo-2012.
Iingcali zezimali azikhange zithathwe. "Uqoqosho lwe-fracking luyoyikeka," ubhala intatheli yezezimali yase-US uWolf Richter kwiBusiness Insider (5). โUkugrumba kutshabalalisa imali eyinkunzi ngesantya esimangalisayo, kwaye abomba bashiyeka benentaba yamatyala kanye xa amazinga okwehla eqalisa ukuwonakalisa. Ukugcina amazinga okwehla ekungcoliseni iingxelo zengeniso, iinkampani kuye kwafuneka zigrumbe ngakumbi nangakumbi, ngamaqula amatsha enzela ukwehla kwemveliso yamaqula amadala. Yeha, inkqubo ibethe eludongeni, eyinyani. "
U-Arthur Berman, ingcali yepetroleum geologist eyayisebenza ne-Amoco (phambi kokudityaniswa kwayo neBP) uthi โamazinga okwehla [kumava] kumadama e-shale โฆ โโaphezulu ngokumangalisayoโ (6). Ecaphula indawo ye-Eagle Ford ye-shale e-Texas ("umama wayo yonke imidlalo yeoli ye-shale"), ubonisa ukuba "izinga lokuhla ngonyaka lingaphezulu kwe-42%. Ukugcina imveliso ithe tyaba, kuya kufuneka bombe โmalunga ne-1,000 lamaqula kwi-Eagle Ford, minyaka leโฆ Ndiyongeza zonke ezi zinto kwaye iqala ukusondela kwisixa semali efunekayo ukubuyisela ishishini lebhanki. Izakuvela phi loo mali?โ
'Yonke into ibomvu'
Kulo nyaka uphelileyo kwabona iinkampani ezinkulu zamandla zitsala nzima ngenxa yoqoqosho lwamaqamza lwerhasi ye-shale. I-CEO ye-ExxonMobil, u-Rex Tillerson, wakhalaza ukuba amaxabiso aphantsi ngenxa yokugcwala kwerhasi yendalo yase-US, nangona inciphisa iindleko zamandla kubathengi, ibingamaxabiso acinezelayo kwaye ngenxa yoko ebesoloko engonelanga ukuhlawulela iindleko zemveliso ekhokelela ekwehleni kwengeniso ngokumangalisayo. Nangona, kwiintlanganiso zabaninizabelo kunye nezonyaka, inkampani yayigxininise ngokusemthethweni ukuba ayilahlekelwa yimali kwigesi, uTillerson wathetha ngokuphandle kwintlanganiso yeBhunga lezoBudlelwane baNgaphandle: โSonke siphulukana neehempe zethu namhlanje. Asenzi mali. Konke kubomvuโ (7).
Iqela laseBritani leBG lanyanzelwa ukuba "lithathe i-$ 1.3bn yokubhala kwi-asethi yegesi yendalo yase-US" ngenxa ye-gas supply glut, "ekhokelela ekuweni okubukhali kwikota kunye nenzuzo yesikhashana" (8). NgoNovemba ka-2012, emva kokuba iRoyal Dutch Shell ibone umvuzo wayo wehla kwikota yesithathu ilandelelana โngama-24% enyakeniโ, uDow Jones wachaza โiziphumo ezibi kwimivuzo yaboโ, egxininisa โukuphazamiseka kwe-shale boom kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo. ebekwicandelo.โ
Nditsho neChesapeake Energy - ehlawuliswa njengovulindlela waseMelika - yazifumana isengxakini, iyinyanzele ukuba ithengise ii-asethi ukuze ihlangabezane nezibophelelo zayo. IWashington Post yathi, "Iya kuthengisa i-$ 6.9bn yerhasi kunye nemibhobho ye-9 yezigidigidi - elinye inyathelo ekunciphiseni inkampani omphathi wayo oyintloko oye wayenza inkokeli kwinguqu yegesi ye-shale yelizwe" (XNUMX ).
Kuye kwavunyelwa njani oku ukuba kwenzeke? Umhlalutyi uJohn Dizard wachaza kwi-Financial Times (6 May 2012) ukuba abavelisi berhasi ye-shale bachithe "izihlandlo ezibini, ezithathu, ezine kunye nekahlanu ngokuphuma kwemali yabo yokusebenza ukuxhasa umhlaba wabo, ukugrumba kunye neenkqubo zokugqibezela." Ukuzinzisa le โntsilelo yenkxaso-maliโ, imali eninzi kakhulu โyabolekwa, ngokwemiqathango entsonkothileyo nenyanzelisayo. IWall Street bekufanele ukuba ibonelele ngetshekhi zokwenyani kubantu berhasi ye-shale; endaweni yoko, banike iitshekhi zecashier ngooziro abaninzi ekugqibeleni. โ Kodwa ngokukaDizard, iqamza liya kuqhubeka likhula ngenxa yokuxhomekeka okwandileyo kwe-US kumandla aphehlwa yirhasi. โNgenxa yokwehla kwamazinga okuhla kwamaqula erhasi ye-shale, xa kuthelekiswa namaqula aqhelekileyo, ukugrunjwa kuya kufuneka kuqhubeke. Amaxabiso kuya kufuneka alungelelanise ukuya phezulu, kakhulu, ukuhlawulela kungekuphela nje amatyala adlulileyo kodwa iindleko zokwenyani zemveliso. โ
Eyona meko imbi kakhulu
Nangona kunjalo, akukhutshelwanga ukuba iinkampani ezininzi zeoyile zinokuzifumana zijongene noxinzelelo lwezemali ngaxeshanye. Ukuba oko kuyenzeka, ngokukaBerman, โunokuba nokubhanga okukhulu okanye ukuhlutha abantu kwaye wonke umntu uyahlehla, yonke imali iyaba ngumphunga, yonke inkunzi iyahamba. Le yeyona meko imbi kakhulu.โ
Ngamanye amazwi, isiseko se "peak oil" - indawo apho izithintelo ze-geological kunye nezoqoqosho ziya kudibanisa ukwenza izinto ezimnyama zibe nzima kwaye zibiza kakhulu ukuvelisa - zikude nokutshatyalaliswa yi-shale gas boom. Izifundo zenzululwazi ezininzi ezizimeleyo ezikhutshwe kulo nyaka uphelileyo - zingahoywanga ngamajelo eendaba - zingqina esi sigqibo.
Kuphononongo lwePolisi yezaMandla, uMhlekazi uDavid King kunye neqela lakhe le-Oxford bagqibe kwelokuba ishishini leoli liye labagqithisa oovimba behlabathi malunga nesithathu, kwaye uqikelelo kufuneka lwehliswe ukusuka kwi-1,150-1,350 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni ukuya kwi-850-900 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni. "Nangona ngokuqinisekileyo kukho izixa ezikhulu zemithombo yamafutha aseleyo emhlabeni, umthamo we-oyile enokuthi isetyenziswe ngokurhweba ngamaxabiso uqoqosho lwehlabathi sele luqhelekile kwaye luya kuncipha ngokukhawuleza" (10).
Inkosi kunye ne-co, kwiphepha labo leNdalo, bafumanisa ukuba nangona ukunyuka kwengxelo yemveliso ye-oyile kunye negesi engaqhelekanga nge-fracking, ukuchithwa kweendawo ezikhoyo zehlabathi kusaqhuba kwi-4.5-6.7% ngonyaka. Bazikhabile ngokungqongqo iingcamango zokuba irhasi ye-shale iyakunqanda ingxaki yamandla. Kwaye umhlalutyi wengozi yezemali wase-US uGail Tverberg wafumanisa ukuba ukusukela ngo-2005 "ubonelelo lwe-oyile lwehlabathi [oluqhelekileyo] alunyukanga", ukuba "yeyona nto ingunobangela wokudodobala koqoqosho ngo-2008-2009" kunye "nefuthe elilindelekileyo lokuncitshiswa [kwesiqhelo] kobonelelo lweoyile" kuya kuthetha ukuba "ingxaki yezemali inokuthi ekugqibeleni ibe mbi" (11). Ayisiyiyo yonke into: ingxelo entsha evela kwiNew Economics Foundation ilumkise ukuba ukufika "kweoli ye-oyile yezoqoqosho" - xa iindleko zokubonelela "zidlula uqoqosho lwexabiso lunokuhlawula ngaphandle kokuphazamisa kakhulu umsebenzi wezoqoqosho" - kuya kwenzeka malunga ne-2014 / 15 ( 12).
Ukulandela i-PR ekhubekisayo kwishishini, iintatheli kunye nabaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo baye bazityeshela kakhulu ezi zifundo. Kodwa i-upshot ilula: Kunokuba ungenise iliza elitsha lempumelelo ehlala ihleli, isiphumo sokugcwala kwerhasi kunokuba liqamza le-shale elingagcinekiyo, eliphembelela ukuchacha okwethutyana okugquma ukungazinzi okunzulu kwesakhiwo. Xa iqamza ligqabhuka phantsi kobunzima bezibophelelo zamatyala ayo, kuya kubakho ukuwohloka konikezelo kunye ne-spike kumaxabiso, kunye neziphumo ezibi kwezoqoqosho.
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