[Inguqulelo yesiKorea iyafumaneka Apha]
NgoSeptemba, emva kowona Agasti ushushu kwirekhodi, unxweme lwaseOstreliya lwaseMpuma lwalugutyungelwe luthuli olubomvu. Ukubonakala kwehliswe ukuya kutsho kwiimitha, kunyanzelise ukurhoxiswa kweenqwelomoya kunye nokuqhuba abantu ngaphakathi ezindlwini njengoko iitoni ezizizigidi ezihlanu zomhlaba zavuthuza usuka kumbindi welizwe apho imbalela ikunyaka wayo wesithoba. Ekuqaleni kwaloo nyanga, abantu baseKorea baxelelwa ukuba kwixesha elizayo ikhephu lalinokunyamalala kwilizwe labo ngaphandle kweencopho ezimbalwa zeentaba, kwaye imozulu yabo yayiza kuba ngaphantsi kwetropikhi. Kwezinye iindawo, umkhenkce wolwandle lweArctic uyaqhekeka, uvula iindlela zokuhamba kunye nokuhlola kwimimandla encanyana, umkhenkce uhlehla, isiqingatha samahlathi ashinyeneyo nanemozulu epholileyo yehlabathi, imigxobhozo, neekorale ziye zahamba okanye zisongelwa; izaqhwithi, izikhukula nezinye iintlekele zemvelo zigquba ehlabathini lonke. Izazinzulu zilumkisa ngokusondela kwentlekele yehlabathi lonke.
Uphononongo lwamva nje lwe-UN Environment Programme lusixelela ukuba, nokuba uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe luphumeza yonke inkqubo yemozulu ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ecetywayo amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi asaya kunyuka ngokuphawulekayo kule nkulungwane. Nokuba yintoni na esiyenzayo ngoku โasinakuphungula ii-GHGs esele zizibophelele [i-global greenhouse gases] ukufudumala kwe-2.4 degrees celsius.โ Iingcali zemozulu ezigqwesileyo zehlabathi, ngokwengxelo ye-Aprili kwijenali yezenzululwazi, iNature, iqikelela ukuba nangona ubushushu obuphakathi (20C) sime "ithuba elinamandla lokuxhokonxa imbalela kunye neempendulo zesivunguvungu ezinokucela umngeni kuluntu oluphucukileyo, olukhokelela kungquzulwano kunye nokubandezeleka okuhamba nelizwe elingaphumeleliyo kunye nokufuduka kwabantu abaninzi." Likamva lethu elo, yaye imbono iya isiba mandundu ngokuthe ngcembe.
E-Copenhagen kufuneka sifikelele kwimvumelwano yehlabathi jikelele yokusungula iphulo - elifikelela ngamandla ekuhlanganiseni ngexesha lemfazwe - ukuzama ukubamba, okanye ubuncinane ukucotha, ukuwohloka kwehlabathi njengoko sisazi kwintlekele yesiphithiphithi semozulu. Inkomfa kaDisemba iba sesona siganeko sibalulekileyo kwimbali yoluntu, ithuba lethu lokugqibela.
Ii-NGO zeHlabathi, eziquka iGreenpeace kunye ne-WWF, ziqikelela ukuba sidinga e-Copenhagen ukuzibophelela ekunciphiseni ikhabhoni nge-40 yeepesenti ngo-2020 kunye ne-80 yeepesenti (i-95 yeepesenti kumazwe amashishini) phakathi kwinkulungwane. Enye indlela yokubeka kukuba iithagethi zaseKyoto - zifikelelwe kuphela kwiindawo ezimbalwa - ngoku kufuneka ziphindaphindwe kabini ukuya kathathu kwixesha elifutshane kwaye ukuya kuthi ga kwishumi eliphakathi.
Okwangoku, ngaphandle kwezibophelelo amazwe amaninzi azenzileyo ukususela e-Kyoto ngo-1997 zokuwanciphisa, akhula ngokuthe ngcembe. Ehlabathini lonke, ukukhutshwa kwe-greenhouse kwenyuka ngeepesenti ze-38 phakathi kwe-1992 kunye ne-2007, ukunyuka ukusuka kwinqanaba le-1.1 ekhulwini ngonyaka kwi-1990 ukuya kwi-3.5 ipesenti kwi-2000-2007. Uncwadi lweengcali luphawulwa ngokwandayo ngamagama amnyama: i-threshold, i-tipping-point, ukungaguquki. Siyazinzisa iimeko zemozulu apho kwiminyaka emininzi eyadlulayo uluntu lwaphuhlisa ezolimo, iilali, izixeko, impucuko.
Imisebenzi yabantu, ukumpompa ikhabhoni emoyeni ngamazinga anyukayo ngokuthe ngcembe ukusukela oko uguqulo lwemizi-mveliso lunyuse uxinzeleko lwangaphambili lwekhabhoni esemoyeni (280 ppm) ukuya kuma-387 ppm, kwaye elo nqanaba liyaqhubeka nokunyuka malunga ne-3.1 ppm ngonyaka. Kuqikelelo "lweshishini njengesiqhelo" kwindlela yethu yangoku, sijonge esiphelweni senkulungwane yoxinzelelo lwekhabhoni emalunga ne-950 ppm kunye nokunyuka kobushushu nge-4.60C.
Ukubamba ukunyuka kweqondo lokushisa ukuya kwii-degrees ezi-2, izazinzulu zehlabathi ezidibana e-Bali ngo-2007 zagxininisa ukuba kufuneka ngazo zonke iindleko sigcine amanqanaba oxinzelelo lwekhabhoni ye-atmospheric ngaphantsi kwe-450 ppm. I-EU kunye ne-Australia ngoku bamkele loo njongo. Nangona kunjalo, izazinzulu ezininzi zicinga ukuba i-tipping point yokwenyani inokwenzeka ukuba ibe yi-400 ppm - kuyo nayiphi na imeko ngoku ayinakuphepheka kwaye isondele - kunye nefuthe elikhulu, kubandakanya uRajendra Pachauri, intloko ye-IPCC, bacinga ukuba, njengento engxamisekileyo, kufuneka sinciphise ukuya kuma-350. Nokuba zonke izicucu ezithenjiswe ngamazwe emhlabeni jikelele njengalo mzuzu ziye zafezekiswa, ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu kuya kuba kumyalelo we-3.5 degrees, okt. phantse kabini "imeko embi kakhulu" yangaphambili.
EOstreliya, apho urhulumente olwela iinguqu kunye nothanda imozulu wathatha isikhundla ngo-2008, ukuzibophelela okwalandelayo kwi-450 ppm kuneziphumo ezibi. Kuthatha ngokungakhathaliyo ukuqhubeka kunye nokonakala kwembalela, umlilo, ubushushu obugqithisileyo behlobo ukuya kuthi ga kwi-45 degrees kuMazantsi e-Australia ngo-2008), kwaye - ekubeni ililizwe elikhulu - izikhukhula. Imbalela esele ikwibhaskithi yelizwe, i-Murray-Darling River basin, inciphise kakhulu imveliso yezityalo ezinkcenkceshelwayo kwaye inyanzelise ukunqunyanyiswa ngokupheleleyo kwezolimo zerayisi kwezi sizini zimbini zidlulileyo. Eyona nto imangalisa kuzo zonke, kunye ne-450 ppm i-carbon concentration kwi-atmosfera, i-Great Barrier Reef - enye yezinto ezimangalisayo zehlabathi-ayiyi kuphila.
NaseJapan, urhulumente ohlengahlengisayo, ocingela imozulu uye waqalisa ukusebenza ngoSeptemba 2009 waza ngoko nangoko wabhengeza ukuzibophelela ekunciphiseni ngepesenti ezingama-25 izinto ezikhutshwayo ngo-1990 ngowama-2020. kunye namandla asebenzayo, kodwa inyaniso kukuba ayizange iphumelele ukuhlangabezana ne-6 yepesenti yokunciphisa i-Kyoto ekujoliswe kuyo kodwa ukukhutshwa kwayo kukhule ngepesenti ze-11 ukuya ku-2007. Oko kwakungcono, ngokuqinisekileyo, kune-US (+ 20 pesenti) , kodwa kuyabanda ngaphambi kokuba kufezekiswe amazwe afana neJamani eye yanciphisa ukukhutshwa kwayo ngeepesenti ezingama-21.
Inkulumbuso yaseJapan uHatoyama Yukio's 25 per cent "ukunciphisa amanqanaba ka-1990" sisithembiso esinesibindi, kwaye sikhululekile xa sithelekisa nezijekulo zase-US ezincinci ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Nangona kunjalo, uHatoyama kusafuneka acenge ishishini okanye aphuhlise iplani yendlela yokuyifeza, isibhambathiso sakhe sixhomekeke kwisivumelwano saseCopenhagen apho "lonke uqoqosho oluphambili luthatha inxaxheba," kwaye ngenxa yokungaphumeleli kwe-post-Kyoto ishumi leminyaka yakhe engama-25. isenti ye amanqanaba 1990 eneneni kuthetha ukuba kufuneka ehlise amanqanaba angoku ngeepesenti ezingama-36. Kwaye, ukuba uyayifeza yonke loo nto, ngokwemiqathango yento efunekayo ayimele ngaphezu kwe-a inyathelo lokuqala.
Ngokubhekiselele kuMzantsi Korea, ukukhutshwa kwerhasi yegreenhouse kuye kwakhula ngelona nqanaba liphezulu phakathi kweengingqi ze-OECD (yenyuka ngeepesenti ezingama-90 phakathi ko-1990 no-2005), kwaye ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ibhengezwe injongo yayo yexeshana elifutshane (ukuya ku-2020) kukubabamba ukwanda okungekho ngaphezu kwe-8 ekhulwini ngaphezu kwamanqanaba ka-2005. Ukuba ingathatha eso simo eCopenhagen, iKorea ayinakwenzeka ukuba ihambe kakuhle. Ukujongana nentlekele yehlabathi, naliphi na ilizwe lemizi-mveliso elithetha ngokunyusa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni yalo linokulindela ukuxelelwa ukuba libuyele emva kwaye liphinde liqwalasele uxanduva lwalo lwehlabathi.
Kufutshane kwinkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji (ekungekho phawu kuyo ngoku), isinyanzeliso sezopolitiko nesokuziphatha kukuba sisuke sisuka kwinto engahlaziyekiyo, esebenza ngamandla ekhabhoni ukuya kwinto ehlaziyekayo, engathathi hlangothi kwezoqoqosho, sinciphise imveliso, ukusetyenziswa, kunye inkunkuma kwicandelo "eliqhelekileyo" lekhabhoni, umyeni wemithombo ekhoyo kwaye ufumane iindlela ezilinganayo nezingamoshakaliyo zokusasaza, ukuphelisa okungeyomfuneko kunye nokungasebenzi kakuhle. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko ndabhala kule kholamu kwi-2008 ("I-Chimera yokuKhula," ngo-Matshi 2008), ukholo olwabelwanayo lwabantu, olufana nenkolo, olwabelwana ngamaKristu, amaBhuda, amaSilamsi kunye nabantu abangakholelwa kuThixo, kukuba uluntu kufuneka luququzelelwe ukuze ukwandisa imveliso, ukusetyenziswa, kunye nenkcitho. Isikali se-GDP kunye nokukhula okwangoku sesona sibonakaliso siphambili "sempumelelo" yamazwe.
Intlanganiso kaDisemba yaseCopenhagen ifuna inguqu yeCopernican ukuze ukusukela ngoku amazwe avavanywe hayi kwi-GDP yawo kodwa ngenxa yempumelelo yawo kubemi behlabathi ekunciphiseni ukukhutshwa kwegesi eluhlaza. Ukukhula kufuneka kubekelwe bucala hleze ukwehla kwethu kwisiphithiphithi semozulu, sipheliswe ziimfazwe zamanzi, iimfazwe zeoyile, iimfazwe zokutya, kunye nobhubhani, zingabi nakuguqulwa. I-Kyoto, i-Bali, kunye nezinye iinkomfa ezinkulu malunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu zazingekho ngaphezu kwee-nudges ezibuthathaka kwindlela uluntu oluya kuyo. I-Copenhagen kufuneka ihambe kakhulu.
UGavan McCormack ungunjingalwazi ophumayo kwiYunivesithi yeSizwe yaseOstreliya eCanberra, umnxibelelanisi kwiJapan Focus, kunye nombhali we Ekujoliswe kuko kuMntla Korea: Ukutyhalela uMntla Korea kuMbindi weNuclear Catastrophe kwaye Ilizwe loMthengi: IJapan kwi-American Embrace.
Lo ngumbhalo wekholamu ebhalelwe iKyunghyang Shinmoon yaza yapapashwa ngo-Oktobha 13, 2009.
Isicatshulwa esicetyiswayo: uGavan McCormack, "Indlela eya eCopenhagen," I-Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 42-3-09, Okthobha 19, 2009.
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Nikela