Urhulumente wolawulo lukaMongameli u-Andrzej Duda unokulindela ukukhwela kwezopolitiko okurhabaxa ngoDisemba, xa abezopolitiko, oonozakuzaku kunye nabakhankasi besiya eKatowice, ePoland, kwindibano elandelayo ye-UN malunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Umgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu wasePoland obizwa ngokuba ngumgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu - ukujolisa "ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni" ngokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwemveliso yamalahle ngekhabhoni efunxelwe ngamahlathi ayo - iya kujongana nokugxekwa ngokutyebileyo. Indlela eza kuviwa ngayo ezitratweni ngumbandela owahlukileyo: Ipalamente yasePoland iye yazivala iindibano โezizenzekelayoโ eKatowice ebudeni baloo ngqungquthela.
UDonald Trump, owathi kunyaka ophelileyo wahoxisa i-US kwisivumelwano saseParis se-2015 sokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwegesi ye-greenhouse, iya kuba yinto ekujoliswe kuyo ukugculelwa, kungekhona nje kubabonisi kodwa kwabanye bezopolitiko ngaphakathi kweentetho. Ishishini eliphambili eKatowice (ingqungquthela ye-24 yamaqela kwingqungquthela yemozulu yaseRio ka-1992, okanye i-COP24) iya kuba kukugqiba "incwadi yomthetho" ukubeka iliso kwizithembiso zikarhulumente zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwegesi ye-greenhouse ("igalelo elimiselwe kuzwelonke" okanye i-NDCs) eyenziwa eParis. .
Isivumelwano saseParis savuma ukuba amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi kufuneka agcinwe "kakuhle ngaphantsi" i-2 degrees ephezulu kunamanqanaba angaphambi kwamashishini, kwaye i-1.5 degrees ikhethwa. Abakhankasi basebenzisa onke amabinzana akuxwebhu ukucela umngeni kwimigaqo-nkqubo ye-pro-fossil-fuel; ukuxhathisa iinzame zokwenza ukuba umhlaba osemazantsi uhlawule ixabiso lokufudumala; kunye nokukhuthaza "inguqu nje" edibanisa ukuhamba ukusuka kumafutha e-fossil kunye nemizabalazo yobulungisa bentlalo.
Ngelixa usilwa zonke ezi mfazwe, kubalulekile ukuba ungawuhoyi umfanekiso omkhulu. Isivumelwano saseParis sibaluleke kakhulu kungekhona njengebhakana apho ihlabathi lingahlanganisana khona ukumisa utshintsho lwemozulu, kodwa njengesiphumo senkqubo eyintlekele yokusilela ukubuyisela umva ukukhula kokusetyenziswa kwe-fossil, oyena nobangela wokufudumala. E-Paris, uluvo lokubophelela ekujoliswe kuko ekuncitshisweni kokukhutshwa kwerhasi ye-greenhouse ekugqibeleni uyekwa, kusenzelwa ukuzibophelela ngokuzithandela.
Ngelixa oonozakuzaku bencoma ezi zibophelelo, ubunyani bujongelwa phantsi: nokuba oorhulumente baphumeza izithembiso zabo, ubushushu behlabathi jikelele buqikelelwa ukuba bufikelele kwi-2.7 degrees ngaphezu kwamanqanaba angaphambi kwamashishini nge-2100, kunokuba i-2 degrees okanye i-1.5 degrees.
Imbono yembali iluncedo. Kwiminyaka engama-1988 eyadlulayo, ngoJuni XNUMX, izazinzulu ngemozulu zidibene zalumkisa ngelithi umoya ojikeleze umhlaba uyafudumala yaye iigesi ze<em>greenhouse zazingoyena nobangela. Bahlanganisana noonozakuzaku eToronto, eKhanada, ukuze baseke i-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iqumrhu leZizwe Ezimanyeneyo.
Kunyaka ongaphambili, ngowe-1987, intshukumo yamazwe ngamazwe yalungelelaniswa, ngenkqubo yomthetho yaseMontreal, ukunciphisa ukuveliswa kweeklorofluorocarbons ezazivula umngxuma oyingozi kucwecwe olukhuselayo lwe-ozone emhlabeni. Inkomfa yaseToronto, ngethemba, ikhuthaze ulungelelwaniso olufanayo ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwegesi ye-greenhouse ngama-20% ngo-2005.
Kwi-summit yaseRio kwi-1992, i-US yagxininisa ukuba akuyi kubakho iithagethi ezibophelelayo zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa. Oonozakuzaku bayo, kunye nezinye ii-NGOs ezisemantla, zijolise ekugawulweni kwamahlathi, igalelo elincinci ekufudumaleni kwehlabathi, ukuphepha ukuthetha ngomba omkhulu: ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili. Ukujongana noko, iindlela zentengiso zinokusetyenziswa kwaye kufuneka zisetyenziswe, batsho. Loo ngcinga ikhokele isivumelwano sika-1997 sase-Kyoto, esabonelela ngeenkqubo zokurhweba ezikhutshwayo ezisilele ngokulusizi ukunqanda ukusetyenziswa kwe-oyile, igesi kunye namalahle ukugabadula phezulu. Inkomfa ye-2009 yaseCopenhagen ayiphumelelanga ukuvelisa isivumelwano se-post-Kyoto; IParis, neenjongo zayo zokuzithandela, yalandela.
Ngelixa iindlela zentengiso zazimiselwe ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili, oorhulumente babesongamela uncediso-mali ekuvelisweni nasekusetyenzisweni kwamafutha efosili, afikelela kumakhulu eebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka. Ukukhutshwa okupheleleyo kwehlabathi jikelele kumafutha avuthayo avuthayo, xa kuthelekiswa nenqanaba lika-1988, akuzange nje kwehle nge-20% ngo-2005, njengoko bekucingelwa eToronto; bakhule ngama-35%. Kwi-2017, bebengama-60% ngaphezu kwenqanaba le-1988.
Kutheni le nto inkqubo yaseRio iye yasilela kakubi kangaka, apho iprotocol yaseMontreal iphumelele? Ngokuqinisekileyo, ezopolitiko zibalulekile. Ingqungquthela yokutshintsha kwemozulu ka-1992 yatyikitywa njengoko i-neoliberalism yayigquba awona mazwe anamandla. Ngelixa iiRiphabhlikhi zase-US, kunye nabavelisi abakhulu be-oyile abanje ngeSaudi Arabia kunye neRussia, baxhathisa ekujoliswe kuko okubophelelayo, iiDemokhrasi zase-US kunye noorhulumente baseYurophu baqala. Bakukhanyele ukukhanyelwa kwesayensi yemozulu kwaye bavuma isoyikiso sokufudumala kwehlabathi - kodwa nangona kunjalo babona intengiso njengesixhobo sokujongana nayo. Ngo-1997, iiDemokhrasi kunye namaRiphabhlikhi zadibana emva komthetho oyilwayo we-Senate yase-US ukubulala umgaqo-siseko obophelelayo ekujoliswe kuyo; yadlula ngo-95-0.
Ababhali-mbali bexesha elizayo ngokuqinisekileyo baya kujonga emva kwinkqubo yaseRio njengokusilela okuyimbali ngokudibeneyo ngamazwe aphambili ehlabathi, kumlinganiselo wesilayidi ukuya emfazweni ngo-1914. Akukho zimpendulo zilula koku kusilela. Kodwa kufuneka kufunwe iimpendulo phandle imida yenkqubo yaseRio. Asiyonkqubo yethu; masingayiqhelanga.
Izizathu ezisisiseko zokusilela kwamazwe ngokuqinisekileyo zinzulu kunezopolitiko. Ii-CFCs ezilawulwa yinkqubo yomthetho yaseMontreal yayibuchwephesha obungaxatyiswanga, obufudula busetyenziselwa ukwenziwa kwefriji. Kodwa akukho nto incinci malunga namafutha efosili. Ziye zisetyenziswe ezininzi zezona zinkulu iinkqubo zobuchwepheshe - iinkqubo zothutho ezisekelwe kwiimoto, kunye neziseko zedolophu ezixhasayo; uthungelwano lombane; iinkqubo zoshishino ezixhomekeke kwi-carbon-heavy materials njengentsimbi; iindlela zezolimo ezifunxa izichumiso ezisekelwe kwigesi-zifakwe kwiinkqubo zentlalo kunye nezoqoqosho esiphila kuzo.
Ngelixa ndibhala incwadi ngembali yehlabathi yokusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili, esandula kupapashwa, ndiye ndasebenza ukuze ndiqonde ukuba iteknoloji-society nexus. Iinkqubo zobugcisa ezisekelwe kwifosili ziyinxalenye yobungxowankulu, nakwinkqubo yabasebenzi abayilawulayo; ukwanda kwenkunzi kuye kwaqhuba ukwanda kwezo nkqubo; inguqu yobuchwepheshe kude kumafutha efosili iyakufezekiswa ngeyona ndlela isebenzayo njengenxalenye yotshintsho olusuka kubungxowankulu. Olu tshintsho lukhulu alunakuze lwenziwe ngoorhulumente.
Ingxoxo kawonke-wonke malunga nokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili, okanye iimveliso ezisebenzisa amafutha amaninzi, zisoloko zijolisa kwimizi nganye. Oku kulahlekisa ngenxa yezizathu ezithathu. Okokuqala, ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha ezindlini kuphenjelelwa kukungalingani. Amakhaya amaninzi kumantla ehlabathi atya kaninzi, namakhulu, ngokuphindwe kaninzi kunalawo akumazantsi ehlabathi. Ngaphezulu kwebhiliyoni yabantu, ingakumbi emaphandleni kumazantsi ehlabathi, abakakwazi ukufikelela kumbane.
Okwesibini, kwanaloo makhaya ahlala phakathi kwenkqubo yamandla exhaphakileyo ebonelelwa ngefosili, enombane oqhelekileyo, ubushushu basebusika, izithuthi ezihamba ngeemoto njalo njalo โ malunga nama-60% abantu behlabathi โ abawulawuli unikezelo lwamafutha. Abanakho ukukhetha ngokulula imilinganiselo enokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwepetroli, njengezindlu zokugquma, okanye ukubonelela ngezithuthi zikawonke-wonke ezindilisekileyo ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kweemoto. Abantu basenawo ulawulo oluncinane kwindlela abasebenzisa ngayo amafutha angathanga ngqo, umzekelo, amalahle okwenza intsimbi, okanye i-oyile yokwenza iplastiki, kwiimveliso abazithengayo; i-oyile esetyenziselwa ukubonelela; okanye igesi esetyenziselwa ukwenza isichumiso sokuvelisa ukutya.
Okwesithathu, indlela ezo nkqubo zobuchwepheshe ezisebenzisa ngayo amafutha kunye nezixhobo ezithatha amafutha amaninzi zenziwe ngokwembali. Akukho nto ingenakuphepheka, okanye esebenzayo, malunga nokusetyenziswa kakubi kweplastiki yokupakisha; malunga neenkqubo zezothutho zedolophu ezisekelwe kubunzima, i-fuel-intensive, ngokuqhelekileyo iimoto zomntu omnye; malunga nesichumiso esinzima kwezolimo kwimizi-mveliso; okanye malunga nothungelwano lombane oluphakathi. Ezi teknoloji zisetyenziswa ngendlela eyiyo, ngenxa yeenkqubo zentlalo kunye nezoqoqosho ezifakwe kuzo. Ubungxowankulu abusebenzisi nje ubuchwepheshe; iyayibumba.
Ukutshintsha kude kumafutha efosili iya kuba yinguquko ukusuka kubungxowankulu ukuya kuluntu oluphila ngokuvisisana nendalo, lwenza kulo oko likufunayo, hayi oko kondla inzuzo. Ngokwezopolitiko, oko kufuneka kulwelwe ngaphandle kwenkqubo ye-UN.
USimon Pirani ngumbhali we Ukutshisa: iMbali yeHlabathi yokuSetyenziswa kweFossil, epapashwe nguPluto Press
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Nikela