Umongameli uTrump uzama ukubulala isivumelwano senyukliya ne-Iran, kodwa kwangaxeshanye enze abantu base-Irani babeke ityala. Kwakhona namhlanje uye wakhupha i-waivers ebeka kwakhona izohlwayo ezingqongqo zezoqoqosho e-Iran, kodwa woyikisa ngokuphuma kwixesha elizayo ngaphandle kokuba iCongress kunye namazwe aseYurophu aphucula imimiselo yesivumelwano ngokwembono yase-US. Ukwabhengeze izohlwayo ngakumagosa aseIran ngezityholo zorhwaphilizo kunye nokuxhaphaza amalungelo abantu ngexesha loqhanqalazo lwasesitratweni eIran.
Kodwa eyona njongo yabachasi base-US kwisivumelwano senyukliya esisayinwe nguMongameli u-Obama kunye nabanye kwi-2015 kukuqinisekisa ukuba i-Iran ayifumani "isabelo soxolo" kwisivumelwano kwaye iyacatshukiswa ukuba ihambe kude nayo. Mhlawumbi, iinkokeli zase-Irani zikrelekrele kakhulu ukuba zingawela emgibeni, kodwa umgaqo-nkqubo waseIran yimveliso yamaziko akhuphisanayo amandla eTehran ngoko ke into abaza kugqiba ngayo ayiqinisekanga kwaye ayinangqondo kakhulu.
Ubutshaba kwisivumelwano esichazwe nguTrump sele sithetha ukuba iibhanki zangaphandle kunye neenkampani zithintelwe ekwenzeni ishishini eIran ngenxa yokoyika ukuba izohlwayo zinokuphinda zibethelwe nangaliphi na ixesha. Nokuba yeyiphi na inzuzo abantu base-Irani abaqhelekileyo bacinga ukuba baya kuphuma kwisivumelwano ngemisebenzi kwaye umgangatho wokuphila ophucukileyo awuzange wenzeke.
Kwaye akunakwenzeka ukuba: emva kokugxeka isivumelwano rhoqo ukusukela kwiphulo lonyulo lukamongameli njengelona "libi kakhulu kwimbali" uTrump ufakwe ebhokisini ngentetho yakhe - hayi ukuba ukhe wabonisa ukungonwabi okuncinci koku. Ufuna utshintsho olucalanye kwimigaqo yesivumelwano kwicala lase-US kunye nothethathethwano oluqatha kwicala lama-Irani kunye naseYurophu, nokuba angayifumana.
Nantoni na eyenzekayo kwixesha elifutshane, isivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iranian, okanye iNkqubo yokuSebenza ngokuHlangeneyo (JCPOA) njengoko ibizwa njalo, iqala ukufana netanki yeoli yase-Iranian esele iqhutywa ngoku kwaye ivutha phakathi kweTshayina neJapan, eya kutshona okanye ibe shushu. i-hulk etshileyo engenamsebenzi nakubani na.
Kodwa, njengoko i-Iran ibonakala ngathi iza kutsala inzuzo encinci yezoqoqosho kwi-JCPOA, iinzuzo zayo zezopolitiko kwisivumelwano ziyanda ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe. UMongameli u-Hassan Rouhani unokugxeka ubungqongqo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokungasebenzi ngokuthe ngqo kwiTrump kunye ne-US. Uqhanqalazo oluzenzekelayo oluphenjelelwe zizikhalazo zoqoqosho eziye zaqhambuka kulo lonke elase-Iran kwiintsuku ezisemva kwe-28 kaDisemba zinokufakwa iidemon njengoko zicwangcisiwe okanye zidlalela ezandleni zeentshaba zangaphandle ekubeni utshaba oluphambili, olumilo lukaTrump, luyabavuyisa.
Enye inzuzo yezopolitiko enokuthi i-Iran ibonakale ngakumbi kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo njengoko umba wesivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iranian ubuyela phezulu kwi-ajenda yeendaba. Amazwe aseYurophu enze umzamo omkhulu ukusukela oko uTrump waphumelela unyulo lukamongameli ngo-2016 ukwenza ngathi wayengenguye โumfazi ophambeneyo kwigumbi eliphantsi kophahlaโ othe ngandlelโ ithile wathatha ulawulo lwe-White House. Kwakukho amathemba okuba uTrump angatshona phantsi okanye inqanawa enkulu yaseMelika izakuhamba ngenqanawa phantsi kwesantya sayo, nokuba ithini na into engaqhelekanga yendoda entsha ephetheyo. Oorhulumente bamazwe angaphandle baye baziqinisekisa ukuba ukuba ubambe impumlo yakho kwaye wenze ngathi uTrump ufana nabanye abongameli baseMelika ngoko unokuba njengomnye okanye abantu abayi kuqaphela ukuba akanguye.
Kodwa uhanahaniso luya lubhitya kakhulu. Indlela eyayibonakala ibhityile ngayo kule veki njengoko abaphathiswa bamazwe angaphandle baseYurophu badibana nomlingani wabo wase-Iranian, u-Mohammad Javad Zarif, e-Brussels ngenjongo yokucenga i-Iran ukuba inciphise imisebenzi yayo ephazamisayo kuMbindi Mpuma enempembelelo kwisivumelwano senyukliya. Kodwa akukhange kukhangeleke ngolo hlobo: ukuba uZarif ngenene wayebanjelwe uxanduva, wayengabonakalisi zimpawu zokungakhululeki njengoko wayehleli ekhazimla kubaphathiswa bamazwe angaphandle baseBritane, amaFrentshi kunye namaJamani kwaye bambuyisela kuye. Kwabonakala ngakumbi ngathi i-Iran kunye namazwe anamandla aseYurophu, ngaphandle kweRussia, esele ikwikona yase-Iranian, abonisa i-front efanayo ngokuchasene ne-US ekukhuseleni isivumelwano senyukliya. "Imvumelwano eyomeleleyo eBrussels namhlanje," utshilo uZarif ngovuyo. "I-Iran ithobela iJCPOA."
UTrump unokuphelisa isivumelwano senyukliya, kodwa i-US iya kuhlawula ixabiso elinzima lezopolitiko. Abantu baseYurophu bahlazekile ngokuqhutyelwa kwikona yase-Iranian kunye neRashiya neChina, kodwa abanalo ukhetho oluninzi kwi-JCPOA kwaye, ngokunyuka, kwezinye izinto. Ngokuthandabuza, bathatha isigqibo sokuba uTrump ngoyena utshabalalisayo kunye nosoyikiso olunamandla ngakumbi kumyalelo wamazwe ngamazwe kunayo nayiphi na ingozi eyenziwa yi-Iran.
Khumbula ukuba onke la magosa ahlanganisene eBrussels aya kuthi onke achithe ixesha labo kwezi ntsuku zamva nje efunda ngokupheleleyo, okanye kwizicatshulwa ezilandelelanayo, incwadi kaMichael Wolff eyonakalisayo, Umlilo kunye nobushushu: Ngaphakathi kweTrump White House, ecaphula abancedisi abakhulu bakaTrump besithi unekratshi elipheleleyo lomntwana ofuna ukwaneliseka kwangoko kwiminqweno yakhe kwaye akakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi wakhe njengomongameli wase-US. Kungenzeka ukuba le ncwadi, esekelwe kudliwano-ndlebe kunye nabalingane bakaTrump, iya kuba nempembelelo encinci kunokuba ifanele e-US kuba ilizwe sele lahlulwe kakhulu kwiinkampu ze-pro kunye ne-anti-Trump. Kodwa kwihlabathi liphela, apho bekukho abaguquki ababone indlela ethile yokuphambana kukaTrump, ukukholelwa kuyakhula ukuba, njengomsasazi wesiphithiphithi, uTrump akanakuthelekiswa nanto kwaye uyingozi ngakumbi kuxolo lwezizwe ngezizwe kunayo nantoni na enokufunyanwa kuyo. Tehran, eMoscow okanye eBeijing.
Abanye abantu abanethemba bakholelwa ukuba uTrump unokuba yi-crackpot eninzi njengoko abagxeki bakhe bekholelwa, kodwa isilivere yesilivere yeyokuba unesiphithiphithi kakhulu kwaye episodic ukuchaphazela ihlabathi ngendlela angathanda ngayo. Babanga ukuba, kuzo zonke iintetho ezinogwebu eziphuma kwi-White House ngo-2017, owona monakalo wokwenene owenziwe nguTrump wawungaphantsi koloyiko oluninzi. Le yingxoxo enobungozi kwaye, kuMbindi Mpuma, ayihoyi into yokuba abantu abanamandla kunye namazwe angaziyo into abayenzayo bayalawulwa kwaye ngokubanzi bakhokele indlela yegadi ngabanye abayaziyo into abayifunayo. Ngokomzekelo, uWolf uthi "umongameli, engayihoyi ingcebiso yomgaqo-nkqubo welizwe langaphandle, wavumela icebo likaSaudis lokuxhaphaza iQatar."
Izono zokushiya kunye nekhomishini zibe nempembelelo embi, efana ne-US yokusilela ukunyanzela iSaudi Arabia ukuba iphele imfazwe eYemen. Zonke ezi zenzo zingacingelwanga kakuhle kunye nokungenzi nto kukaTrump kunye ne-coterie yakhe ephaphathekile ngokubaluleka xa kuthelekiswa nethemba lokuzama ukulwa nomkhosi ne-Iran. Oku kuya kuba yimfazwe enzima ngakumbi kunokuhlasela kwe-US kunye ne-Bhritane kunye nokuhlala kwe-Iraq ngo-2003. I-Trump isenokungafuni imfazwe ne-Iran okanye nabani na ongomnye, kodwa akukho mntu unokuthi ahlasele enye ngokungazi kunye nokucinga okunqwenelekayo.
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Nikela