I-Iran ibonakala iphumelele ekuguquleni isivumelwano "sobuchule" sase-Iraqi kunye ne-US ukuba sibe sesobuchule, ngelixa iphumelela ekuguquleni izivumelwano zayo zobuchule ne-Iraq zibe bubukhoboka belizwe.
Ukusondelelana okukhulayo kwe-US-Iran kuya komeleza le ndlela yokuqinisa isandla se-Iran e-Iraq.
Ke ngoko, akukho namnye obonakala echulumancile njenge-Iraq ngezalathi zamva nje zokusondelelana phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran kwaye akukho namnye obonakala ephaphile ukuze ayibonele impumelelo.
Inkulumbuso uNouri al-Maliki, kwingxelo ekhutshwe yiofisi yakhe nge-29 kaSeptemba "wayincoma" into ayichaza "njengempumelelo enkulu" kunye "noloyiso" kubudlelwane base-US-Iran, wathi "unethemba elikhulu" kwaye wathembisa. , ngoku ka Xinhua "ukuba i-Iraq ikulungele ukudlala indima yokuqhubela phambili uphuhliso oluhle" phakathi kwala mazwe mabini, athe "iintshaba" ze-Iraq kunye nabachasi bayo bemfazwe amashumi eminyaka ngoku kwaye uninzi lwabantu base-Iraqi lubambe uxanduva kunye nokuphendula ngeentlungu zabo zangoku. .
UMphathiswa Wezangaphandle ka-Al-Maliki, uHoshyar Zebari, kudliwanondlebe kunye I-Associated Press eNew York ngosuku olulandelayo, ibonise ukuba i-Iraq idlale "indima eluncedo" kuphuhliso; ngaphezu koko inqwenela "ukusebenza njengebhulorho yonxibelelwano kunye nokuqonda phakathi kwezi zibini," watsho.
UZebari wayezama ukuthatha ikhredithi ukuba umhleli we-Iranian spring yonke imihla ngo-Agasti odlulileyo we-23 obangelwa kutyelelo luka-Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said eTehran ekuqaleni kwaloo nyanga kunye "nendima eyadlalwa ngu-Oman" kwixesha elidlulileyo phakathi kwe-Iran kunye neNtshona.
UZebari wayebonakala enomdla wokuqinisekisa ukuba abalawuli baseMelika bathathe "ubunkokeli" bukaMongameli uHassan Rohani, owanyulwa ngoJuni, kunye norhulumente wakhe wase-Iranian "kakhulu" kuba "bazimisele" kwaye "abadlali imidlalo," ngokuchaseneyo. kwimpendulo engalunganga ye-US Israel kunye namahlakani e-GCC ase-Arab.
Ukubhala eBritani Financial Times nge-27 kaSeptemba ophelileyo, uGeoff Dyer kunye noNajmeh Bozorgmehr babelindele ukuba ukuhlangana kwe-US-Iran "kube lolona tshintsho lukhulu lwezopolitiko ukusukela kwimfazwe ebandayo."
I-US-yakhokelela ekuhlaselweni komkhosi e-Iraq ngo-2003 ngokunyanisekileyo kodwa ngokuchaseneyo nokusetyenziswa kwempindezelo yase-Iranian, eyayilinde naliphi na ithuba elinokuvuleka lokuphindezela ukupheliswa kwemfazwe kwiminyaka esibhozo ye-Iran - imfazwe yase-Iraq, Inkokeli engasekhoyo kunye nomseki we-Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), uAyatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, wakhalaza โngokuqukumbela indebe ityhefu.โ
Xa sijonga emva, kucacile ngoku ukuba i-Iran nayo yenza konke okusemandleni ayo ukuba iphule ukupheliswa kwemfazwe kunye ne-Iraq kwaye iququzelele imfazwe yase-US e-Iraq njengokuqhubeka kwemfazwe yase-Iranian ngommeli; ngelixa amajoni aseMelika ayesifa ngamawaka kwaye iWashington yayichitha uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwayo ngeebhiliyoni zemali yabarhafi echithwe kwimfazwe yayo yase-Iraq, i-Iran yayivuna isivuno sase-US apho ngokuzolileyo kodwa ngokuqhubekayo.
Xa imikhosi yokugqibela yase-US irhoxa e-Iraq ngasekupheleni kuka-2011, bayishiya ngasemva e-Baghdad "inkqubo yoxolo" yase-US ekhokelwa yi-US efanayo - ikhulise "inkcaso" yase-Iraq apho imikhosi ehlaselayo yase-US yayifaka kumandla kwiminyaka esibhozo ngaphambili. ngokungahoywayo into yokuba le โyinkcasoโ efanayo ekhuliswe yi-Iran ixesha elide kuyo yonke le minyaka ingaphezulu kwamashumi amathathu yolawulo lwamva luka-Saddam Hussein, abangazange bakuqhawule ukuthembeka kwabo e-Iran ngexesha lolawulo lwase-Iraq e-US.
Ukunyaniseka kokwenyani kwabalawuli baseIraq ukuya e-US okanye e-Iran kwafiphala de ingxabano yaseSyria yenze ukuba kube nzima ukuba baqhubeke esidlangalaleni bengagqibanga.
US Ambivalent
Kwada kutshanje, I-Iraq phantsi kwe-PM u-al-Maliki yayithumela njenge-Tactically placating Iran kwi-Syria ngelixa izibophelela ngokuzolileyo kwiSivumelwano seSicwangciso soBuchule (i-SFA), apho u-al-Maliki watyikitya nowayesakuba ngumongameli wase-US uGeorge W. Bush ngoDisemba 14. 2008.
Urhulumente ka-Al-Maliki wayekwirekhodi ekuxhaseni kwakhe ingxoxo yezopolitiko ekuxoxweni kwengxabano yaseSyria kunye naso nasiphi na isisombululo somkhosi apho kunye nokuchasa "ungenelelo lwangaphandle" eSyria, ukubetha kwe-US nokuba "kulinganiselwe" okanye okungenamkhawulo ngokuchasene nayo, ukuxhobisa abavukeli baseSyria okanye ukuququzelela uthumo lwabo ngezinto zokusebenza, ukunqunyanyiswa kobulungu bayo kwe-Arab League, ukuwisa izohlwayo kwilizwe elinye lama-Arabhu, i-US kunye ne-EU, kunye ne-Arab League kunye nomongameli wase-US uBarak Obama esithi umongameli waseSyria u-Bashar al-Assad โehle esikhundleni. โ ngaloo ndlela izimanya neRashiya, iTshayina neIran.
URaymond Tanter, umongameli weKomiti yePolisi yase-Iran yase-US, ebhala Hill ngoSeptemba wokugqibela i-20, ibhalwe "ulawulo lwaseBaghdad" "umntu okhohlakeleyo" kunye "nomenzi wobubi" umlingani wase-US kwaye wazibuza "yeyiphi ixabiso lelinye labameli abakhulu base-US emhlabeni ukuba i-diplomats zaseMelika azikwazi ukucenga urhulumente wase-Iraq" ukuba izibophelele kwisivumelwano sayo se-SFA.
Nangona kunjalo, i-US ibonakala imbi.
NgoSeptemba wokugqibela i-14 uRamesh Sepehrrad waphawula kwingxelo ye-UPI ukuba, "Ngamaxesha amaninzi, iWashington iyathandabuza ukubamba i-Baghdad iphendule" ngokuma kwayo eSiriya.
Kwangoko, nangona kunjalo, uMongameli u-Obama unike ingcaciso: Umahluko phakathi kweempendulo zase-US kunye ne-Iraqi kungquzulwano lwaseSyria yayiyinto nje "yokungavisisani kwamaqhinga," utshilo u-Obama nge-12 kaDisemba 2011, ecatshulwe yi-CBS News, esongeza ukuba "wayengenamathandabuzo ngokupheleleyo" ukuba i-Iraqi "naysaying" "yayingasekelwanga kuqwalaselo lwento i-Iran engathanda ukuyibona." Umongameli wase-US, njengowandulelayo uBush, uyamthemba u-al-Maliki, kodwa ukuba akakhange akwazi ukuthembela kwi-SFA yeqhinga lamazwe amabini ukuba imqhubele phambili.
Ngaphambi kwesivumelwano samva nje se-US-Russian malunga nezixhobo zekhemikhali zaseSyria, iWashington, ilandela i-SFA, yacela i-Baghdad ukuba ibeke iliso kwindawo yomoya yase-Iraq ngalo lonke ixesha lohlaselo lwase-US olucwangcisiweyo eSyria, ukuthintela i-Iran ukuba ingawusebenzisi, umthombo womkhosi wase-Iraq. uxelele i-al-Arab yaseLondon esekwe mihla le nge-10 kaSeptemba.
Kutshanje nje ngo-Agasti wokugqibela we-15, uMphathiswa weMicimbi yezaNgaphandle ye-al-Maliki, uHoshyar Zebari, uququzelele kunye nomlingani wakhe waseMelika, uJohn Kerry, intlanganiso eWashington, DC yeKomiti yezoPolitiko kunye neDiplomatic Joint Coordination Committee (JCC), eyasekwa njenge. isiphumo se-SFA. Bavuma ukubiza i-JCC elandelayo eBaghdad.
Kwisiteyitimenti esidibeneyo esikhutshwe emva kwentlanganiso, "Bobabini abathunywa bagxininise ukuzibophelela kwabo ekuvaleni kunye nentsebenziswano eqhubekayo yokhuseleko, beqaphela ngokumalunga neMemorandam yokuQonda kwintsebenziswano yokhuseleko esayinwe kwi-JCC yoKhuselo noKhuseleko ngoDisemba 2012, i-US-Iraq Joint. IKomiti yoMkhosi (JMC) eyayisingathwe nguMlawuli oyiNtloko wase-US ngoJuni ka-2013.โ
Nangona kunjalo, olu kuzithemba lucwangcisiweyo lwase-US luphantse lube mihla le e-Iraq.
Umphathiswa wezoKhuselo eIraq uSaadoun al-Dulaimi wayeseTehran nge-26 kaSeptemba ophelileyo etyikitya kunye nomlingani wakhe wase-Iranian uBrigadier General Hussein Dehqan isivumelwano sokhuselo lwamazwe amabini, apho u-Admiral wangemva wase-Iran u-Ali Shamkhani wathi i-Iran ikulungele "ukwandisa ... kwinqanaba leqhinga kuyo yonke into. amasimi, ngokutsho www.tasnimnews.com ngosuku olufanayo.
Ngosuku olungaphambili, USarah Bertin, umphandi kwi-American Foreign Policy Council eWashington, DC, wabhala, ehlomla kutyelelo luka-al-Dulaimi: โI-Iraq iphinda ingena kumjikelo we-Iran.โ
Kwiintsuku ezimbalwa kamva i-arhente yeendaba yaseFars yabika ukuba i-Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) inkumanda yomkhosi wamanzi u-Ali Fadavi kunye nomlingani wakhe wase-Iraq u-Ali Hussein Ali batyikitye i-MoU kwisivumelwano sentsebenziswano yasemanzini.
Ngo-Okthobha ophelileyo, uMphathiswa wezoKhuselo wase-Iran ngoko uBrigadier General Ahmad Vahidi kunye no-al-Dulaimi batyikitye uxwebhu lwentsebenziswano phakathi kwamazwe amabini kummandla wezokhuselo.
Isivumelwano samazwe amabini sokumbiwa kwentsebenziswano esayinwe e-Ahwaz ekupheleni kwenyanga ephelileyo besiyincam yesivumelwano esinamacala amaninzi angaphezulu kwekhulu, kubandakanya igesi, ioyile, amandla kunye nezivumelwano zemibhobho ezixabisa iibhiliyoni zeedola, ezathi i-Iraq yatyikitya neIran. phantsi kwesambulela sokuhlala e-US ukususela ngo-2003 kunye ne-ambrela ye-US-Iraq SFA emva kokurhoxiswa kwemikhosi yase-US kwilizwe.
Ukuguqula amaqhina oBuchule abe siQhinga
Umyinge we-Iraq yamazwe amabini - izivumelwano zase-Iraq ziguquke ngokukhawuleza zaba lubudlelwane bomgangatho wobuchule, obuqiniswa ngamaqela axhasa i-Iran kunye namaqela alawula e-Baghdad, ejikelezwe ngebhanti lehlelo lamaShiite kummelwane wasePersi osempuma kwaye ligcinwe ngummelwane wabo. Imikhosi yamahlelo, ethe ukuza kuthi ga ngoku yaphelisa indaleko yomkhosi wesizwe kunye norhulumente ophakathi ngokukhuphela ngaphandle amanye amahlelo amaSilamsi โkwinkqubo yoxoloโ engaphumeleliyo kwaye ibahlukanise ukuba benze kwaye bathethelele inkcaso yabo yamahlelo ekhokelwa yi-al-Qaeida.
"Ngenxa yezizathu ezicacileyo, abantu base-Irani abathethi esidlangalaleni malunga nento abayenzayo e-Iraq," kodwa "kucacile ukuba i-Iran inamandla okuba nempembelelo enkulu e-Iraq namhlanje," uKenneth M. Pollack, umlingani ophezulu kwi-Iraq. Iziko leSaban loMgaqo-nkqubo woMbindi Mpuma kwiBrookings Institution, libhale nge-3 kaJuni ophelileyo.
Ngokwenqaku elinikezelwe yiTehran Bureau, iZiko loXolo lase-US (USIP), kunye neZiko laMazwe ngaMazwe laseWoodrow Wilson leZifundiswa kwaye lapapashwa ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba kulo nyaka uphelileyo, โI-Iran ayinamdla wokupompa i-oyile eyongezelelweyo e-Iraq. Ayifuni ukuba i-Iraq ibe nobudlelwane obusondeleyo ne-United States, amazwe ama-Arabhu okanye neTurkey. I-Iran nayo ayifuni ukuba i-Iraq iphuhlise amandla amakhulu okuzikhusela emkhosini. Ngokufanelekileyo, i-Iran ingathanda ukuba ne-Iraq phantsi kobhontsi bayo, kodwa igcine ukuzimela nokuzimela kwayo.
Nangona kunjalo, i-US ibonakala imbi. UPollack unale ngcaciso ilandelayo: โNangona zombini iWashington kunye neTehran zibanga ukuba ziyayichasa enye, into ebonwe ngabantu base-Iraqi- ubuncinci ukusukela ngo-2010, kodwa ngokuphikiswayo ixesha elide- ibingabantu baseMelika kunye nabantu base-Irani betyhala kwicala elinye: bexhasa (PM). al-) Maliki ngokuchasene nayo nayiphi na inkcaso, kunye nobundlobongela obuhlaziyiweyo. Ayimangalisi into yokuba abantu abaninzi baseIraq bakholelwa ukuba i-US ayiziqondi iimfuno zayo, okanye sithengisela abantu base-Irani ngembuyekezo yento abangayiqondiyo. โ
Kuzo zonke izibonakaliso, i-Iran kunye ne-US, nokuba kukukhuphisana okanye intsebenziswano, iya kuqhubeka ixesha elide lokuza kubeka esichengeni ulongamo kunye nokuzimela kwe-Iraq, kodwa "Umntu kufuneka ahlale ekhumbula ukuba kulo lonke ubukho be-Iraq yakutshanje, ibingumntu wesizwe kakhulu. ilizweโ kwaye akasayi kunikezela kwisimo somxhasi nokuba yi-United States okanye eIran, ngokwembono yeWashington-based, uTony Cordesman, umhlalutyi kwiZiko leSifundo seSicwangciso kunye neHlabathi (CSIS), ucatshulwe ngu-Al. -Isikhululo sikamabonwakude sesathelayithi saseArabia nge-25 kaJulayi kulo nyaka uphelileyo.
UNicola Nasser ligqala lentatheli yama-Arabhu elizinze eBirzeit, kwiBhanki eNtshona yemimandla yasePalestine ehlala amaSirayeli. [imeyile ikhuselwe]
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