"Siza kutyhala kwaye sityhale de amandla amakhulu asimise."
UDavid Addington, umcebisi wezomthetho kuSekela Mongameli uDick Cheney, wenza eso sibhengezo kuJack Goldsmith weOfisi yoMcebisi wezoMthetho kwiinyanga emva koSeptemba 11, 2001. khumbula kamva ukuba uCheney noAddington babengabantu bokuqala ukuhlangana nabo bohlobo oluthile: โUCheney akachubeki, yaye akazange ayifihle ibhola. Into emangalisayo kukuba uyayenza le nto ayithethayo. Ukungayekeleli luphawu endalubona kuye naseAddington endingazange ndilubone ngaphambili ebomini bam.โ
Umkhandi wegolide akazange azithathe njengotshaba lukaCheney no-Addington. Mhlawumbi wayenezimvo ezininzi zezobupolitika. Eyona nto yamothusayo kukuthembela kwabo kuthotho lwemithetho eyimfihlo nemigaqo-nkqubo enobundlobongela enokutshabalalisa ubomi babantu abamsulwa ize ijike noMgaqo-siseko. I-neoconservatives - abenzi bezimvo kunye nabafundisi bezomthetho abathi ukususela kwi-2001 baye baqinisekisa imigaqo-nkqubo ye-Cheney-Bush - ihambelana nenkcazo efanayo. Aziyeki, ziyatyhala de zimiswe, kwaye ukuza kuthi ga ngoku azizange zimiswe ixesha elide
Iphulo lemfazwe yase-Iraq ka-2003, owona mzekelo usulungekileyo womsebenzi wezandla zabo, laqala ngememorandam yeqhinga. kwi 1996, ngoko ke kufanelekile ukuthetha ukuba bebezama ukwaphula uMbindi Mpuma iminyaka engamashumi amabini epheleleyo. Kodwa ithamsanqa lidlale ngabo iqhinga elibi ngokutyikitywa kwesivumelwano senyukliya phakathi kwamagunya e-P5+1 kunye ne-Iran. Imfazwe kunye nethemba lemfazwe ziye zaba ngumthombo wokubaluleka kwazo okungenakuphikiswa. Ukuba isivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran sifikelela ekubeni semthethweni, uninzi lwamandla abo luya kutyhutyha ngeminwe yabo. I ama impiriyali lowo uqhuba amalinge abo kwimihla ngemihla uya kuqhathwa utshaba olungenakuphila ngaphandle kwalo.
I-Iran inokuthi emva koko ibe lilizwe elinye elingenathamsanqa - igunya elinegunya kunye nengcinezelo ekhohlakeleyo kodwa ibe yinto yokucenga kwaye ingabi yingqwalasela yesoyikiso esingapheliyo samandla. I-neoconservatives iyavutha ngumsindo kwaye impendulo yabo ibe ngumkhuhlane: ukuba bebengumntu, unokuthi ube yingozi kuye nakwabanye. Basafumana ingqwalasela eninzi kunye nexesha lomoya, kodwa owona mahluko phakathi kuka-2003 no-2015 kukungabikho komongameli obathobelayo - into esebenze nje ukulola umsindo wabo.
UMongameli Obama khuselwe isivumelwano senyukliya ngamandla kwintetho yakutshanje kwiYunivesithi yaseMelika. Le yayiyingcaciso yokuqala eyandisiweyo yesigqibo somgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle kubumongameli bakhe, kwaye sasingenalo nesuntswana lefuthe elikhuthazayo. Enyanisweni, yayiyeyokuqala kumazwi akhe ayengenakukhunjulwa โngobucikoโ bayo, kuba ifanele ukudunyiswa okuphezulu ngengqiqo. Kuye kwaqikelelwa zichaswe kwezinye iindawo balukhuni, abangenabubele, abangenabubele, kunye โnabaphezulu.โ
U-Obama waqala ngokuthetha ngeengcamango ezikhuthaza kwaye zilungelelanisa iMfazwe yase-Iraq ye-2003. Wabiza ngokuthi "ingqondo," kwaye igama lalifanelekile - libonisa ii-earphones ezijikeleze intloko ezisithintela ukuba sive nayiphi na ingxolo engena ngaphakathi evela ngaphandle. ihlabathi. Ukuqala ngehlobo lika-2002, abantu baseMelika beva ilizwi elathi: Ibhombu, hlasela, hlala eIraq! Kwaye wenze okufanayo nakwamanye amazwe! Ukwenzela ukuba sibe sempilweni, u-Obama ucacisile, kwafuneka sizikhulule ezo ndlebe:
โKwafuneka siyiphelise ingqondo eyasibeka apho kwasekuqaleni. Yayiyingqondo ephawulwa ngokukhetha isenzo somkhosi kunozakuzo; Ingqondo ebeka i-premium kwisenzo se-US esihlangeneyo phezu komsebenzi onzima wokwakha imvumelwano yamazwe ngamazwe; ingqondo eyabaxwayo izoyikiso ezingaphaya koko kwaxhaswa bubukrelekrele. Iinkokeli azizange zilingane nabantu baseMelika malunga neendleko zemfazwe, begxininisa ukuba sinokubeka lula ukuthanda kwethu kwinxalenye yehlabathi enenkcubeko nembali eyahlukileyo. Kwaye, ewe, abo babiza imfazwe bazibiza ngokuba bomelele kwaye bathatha isigqibo, ngelixa bebagxotha abo bangavumelaniyo njengababuthathaka - kunye nabacebisi botshaba olukhohlakeleyo. "
Kolu luhlu luchanekileyo lweempawu zengqondo, u-Obama wayelumkile ukuba angawabizi magama, kodwa wenza kwalula ukwenza isitshixo:
Ingqondo ephawulwa ngokukhetha isenzo somkhosi: UMongameli uGeorge W. Bush wayalela abahloli benyukliya be-UN ukuba baphume e-Iraq (nangona babecelile ukuba bahlale baze bagqibezele umsebenzi wabo) kuba kwakukho imfuneko engxamisekileyo yokubhobhoza ngoMatshi 2003;
Ingqondo ebeka iprimiyamu kwisenzo esisecaleni kwe-US: Unobhala wezoKhuselo uDonald Rumsfeld uchitha umceli mngeni othandabuzayo kunye nokungathabathi nxaxheba kweFransi kunye neJamani njengobungqina bokungabalulekanga "yaseYurophu endala";
Ingqondo eyabaxwayo izoyikiso: le ihlolwe kancinci ENew York Times amabali kaJudith Miller kunye noMichael Gordon, abathi abaphathi bazimisele emfazweni baqale bayibumba emva koko ku khankanywe kwiindaba zeTV ezibonisa njengobungqina bokuthethelela imfazwe yokuthintela;
Iinkokeli azizange zilingane nabantu baseMelika malunga neendleko zemfazwe: USekela Nobhala wezoKhuselo uPaul Wolfowitz pooh-phooh uqikelelo lwe-Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki ukuba kuya kuthatha amajoni angama-400,000 ukugcina ucwangco e-Iraq emva kwemfazwe;
Ukunyanzelisa ukuba sibeke lula intando yethu kwinxalenye yehlabathi enenkcubeko nembali eyahluke kakhulu: i iibromides kaBush kunye noMcebisi woKhuseleko lweSizwe Condoleezza Rice kumoya wama-Arabhu ohlala kuwo olangazelela idemokhrasi yohlobo lwaseMelika kuMbindi Mpuma.
U-Obama uqhubekile wathi kukho ukuqhubeka kwabantu kunye nezimvo phakathi kwabasasazi abasixelela ukuba sibhobhoze, sihlasele, singene eIraq ngo-2003 kunye nabo ngoku. imali amashumi ezigidi zeerandi zokuqinisekisa ukuba iCongress iyakusichitha isivumelwano senyukliya. โIngqondo efanayo,โ utshilo umongameli, โkwiimeko ezininzi ezibonelelwa ngabantu abafanayo ababonakala bengenasizathu sokunganyaniseki ngokuphindaphindiweyo, kukhokelele kwimfazwe eyenza okungakumbi ukomeleza i-Iran, ngakumbi ukwahlula i-United States, kunayo nantoni na. senze kumashumi eminyaka ngaphambili okanye emva koko. "
Abo bantu abazange baqonde ukuba babephosakele. Abanye babeka ityala kuMongameli Bush okanye isekela lakhe e-Baghdad, umlawuli we-Coalition Provisional Authority, L. Paul Bremer, ngokuphatha kakubi umsebenzi olandela uhlaselo; abanye bayaqhubeka nomongikazi ithiyori emnandi yokuba uSaddam Hussein wayenezixhobo zenyukliya kodwa ngandlela ithile wazithubelezisa ngaphaya komda ukuya eSyria kwaye waqhatha amaqela ophando ase-US kunye nabahloli be-UN; kanti abanye kugcina ukuba imikhosi yamaShiite kunye nezixhobo ezithunyelwe e-Iraq zisuka e-Iran yayingawona nobangela wentlekele yovukelo lwasemva kwemfazwe.
Khumbula ukuba aba benzi bezimvo, ngo-2003, babengawuqondi kakuhle umahluko phakathi kwamaShiite namaSunni kwilizwe ababefuna ukulihlasela. Ukubeka ityala ngoku kwi-Iran ingcatsha ingcali yokuqiqa okusetyhula. Ekubeni yonke imikhosi yamaShia idityaniswe lunqulo neIran, kunokuphikiswana ukuba iIraq ayizange itshatyalaliswe yimfazwe eyintlekele yokuzikhethela eyathi imiphumo yayo yawutshisa lo mmandla. Hayi: iUnited States phantsi kukaBush noCheney yayiligunya elingenakuthelekiswa nanto lisenza umsebenzi walo ofanelekileyo, lizisa uxolo nedemokhrasi kwenye yeendawo ezimnyama zomhlaba ngemfazwe ecocekileyo, ekhawulezayo, โyotyandoโ. Ngo-2004 kunye no-2005, kanye njengokuba ngo-2015, yi-Iran eyabangela ingxaki.
Iinyaniso Ezilula Ezingaziwa
Ngenxa yokuba iNkulumbuso yase-Israel uBenjamin Netanyahu uye wasigxeka isivumelwano senyukliya ngaphandle kokuhoywa kweenkcukacha, umongameli waziva enyanzelekile kwintetho yakhe ukuba awuqonde ngokucacileyo umahluko womdla wesizwe okhoyo phakathi kwe-Israel ne-United States. Nangona singamahlakani, wathi, singamazwe amabini ahlukeneyo, kwaye wabashiya abaphulaphuli bakhe ukuba bazobe ingcamango eyimfuneko: akunakwenzeka ukuba amazwe amabini (nangaphezu kwabantu ababini) ahluke ngaxeshanye kwaye afane. U-Obama uqhubekile nokudibanisa iintlanga ezichaphazelekayo kwesi siseko sezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe:
โNdikholelwa ukuba [imigaqo yesivumelwano] isemdleni waseMelika kunye nakuSirayeli. Kwaye njengomongameli waseUnited States, ibiya kuba kukutshitshisa umsebenzi wam womgaqo-siseko ukwenza ngokuchasene nesigwebo sam esilungileyo ngenxa yokuba ibangela ingxabano yokwexeshana nomhlobo endimthandayo kunye nomhlobo.โ
Isiqinisekiso sokugqibela sibalulekile. Umongameli uyathatha isifungo "ukugcina, ukukhusela, kunye nokukhusela umgaqo-siseko wase-United States" - oko kukuthi, ukunyamekela iimfuno zelizwe lakhe kungekhona elinye.
Ingozi yokudlala iintandokazi kwihlabathi lezizwe, kunye nomkhethe ongazi mida, yayiyisihloko esiphambili seGeorge Washington enkulu. Intetho yokuvalelisa. "Iisigxina, i-antipathies engapheliyo ngokuchasene nezizwe ezithile, kunye nobudlelwane obunothando kwabanye, kufuneka bukhutshelwe ngaphandle," watsho uWashington, ngenxa yokuba.
โUkuthandana okunenzondelelo kolunye uhlanga nolunye kuvelisa ububi obahlukeneyo. Uvelwano lwesizwe esithandwayo, ukuququzelela inkohliso yentelekelelo yomdla oqhelekileyo kwiimeko apho kungekho mdla wokwenyani ukhoyo, kunye nokufaka kwelinye ubutshaba kwelinye, ungcatsha lowo wangaphambili ukuba athathe inxaxheba kwiingxabano kunye neemfazwe zamva nje ngaphandle kwempembelelo eyaneleyo. okanye ukuzithethelela.โ
Kukho abantu baseMelika namhlanje abathobela umnqweno olawulayo othanda ngokukodwa iimfuno zakwaSirayeli, kwaye umongameli wayenazo engqondweni xa wayesenza imisebenzi yakhe phantsi koMgaqo-siseko ebhekisa kwilizwe ekuphela kwalo elinesakhelo semithetho namaziko awayefungile ukuba uya kuyigcina. Intlonipho yokwenene yenye idemokhrasi yaba yinxalenye yokucinga kwakhe apha. Ayiphelelanga nje ekubeni u-Obama anganyulwanga ukuba axhase umbono kaNetanyahu womdla waseMelika, akazange anyulwe ngamaSirayeli ukuxhasa imbono yakhe yomdla wamaSirayeli.
Ku kutshanje incwadi yenkcazo in Imicimbi yabangaphandle, intatheli edumileyo yakwa-Israeli kunye nomcebisi wangaphambili kurhulumente uDaniel Levy wachaza inyani engakhunjulelwanga kakhulu namhlanje malunga nomzamo oqhubekayo kaNetanyahu wokonakalisa iingxoxo kunye ne-Iran. Yayiyinkulumbuso yakwa-Israel eyaqala yafuna ukuba iingxoxo zenyukliya ziqhutywe ngendlela eyahlukileyo kuso nasiphi na isivumelwano malunga norhwebo okanye ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo zesiqhelo. Wakhetha loo ndlela kuba wayeqinisekile ukuba iza kubangela ukuba kungabikho uthethathethwano. Ukungcakaza kukusilela, ngoku wenza ukuba ukunyuswa kwesohlwayo kwizixhobo zesiqhelo kube sisichaso esibalulekileyo โkwisivumelwano esibiโ eVienna.
U-Obama uqukumbele ingxabano yakhe ngokuthi "ezinye iindlela zokuya emkhosini ziya kuba ziphelile ukuba siyala isisombululo esiphumeleleyo sozakuzo esixhaswe ngumhlaba wonke. Ngoko ke masingagqabi magama. Ukhetho esijongene nalo ekugqibeleni luphakathi kwediplomacy okanye uhlobo oluthile lwemfazwe - mhlawumbi hayi ngomso, mhlawumbi hayi iinyanga ezintathu ukusukela ngoku, kodwa kungekudala. " Ingxelo elinganisiweyo kwaye iyinyani ebonakalayo.
Kodwa ngekhe uze kumgama oncomekayo wale nyaniso ukuba umamele amanani e-Congressional Republicans aphinda amagama ewotshi e-neoconservative kunye nokugaya kwabo okukhaphayo kwimbali yamva nje yoMbindi Mpuma. Babaleka ngokucengcelezwa kwe dramatis umntu yemfazwe yokugrogrisa ngamandla amatywina aqeqeshiweyo. USirayeli uhlala โkwindawo eyingozi.โ AmaSilamsi "ankqonkqoza emnyango" kwaye "afuna izithuba emdeni kunye neMexico. " I-Iran yi " umxhasi welizwe ophambili ngobunqolobi ehlabathini.โ UBarack Obama "ungumcekisi" kwaye "yimizuzu emihlanu ukuya ezinzulwini zobusuku eMunich.โ Amagosa anyuliweyo ahamba ngemilenze emibini kwinkulungwane yamashumi amabini ananye awanantloni ukuthetha ezi zinto ngaphandle kwengcamango encinci yeprovenance yabo.
Ukuba kukho isiphene kwingcaciso kamongameli ngomgaqo-nkqubo wakhe, kulele kwizinto ezithile angazange azithethe. Xa ufundisa abantu abaguqukele ebuYudeni, njengoko bebenjalo abantu baseMelika, lihlelo lezopolitiko kangangesithuba esingcono seminyaka engamashumi amabini, nto kufuneka kuthathwe lula. Uninzi lwabantu baseMelika abazi ukuba amaSilamsi anenzondelelo yempambano, i-al-Qaeda, i-al-Nusra, i-Islamic State (IS) - amandla oguquko asebenzayo kunye atshabalalisayo kuMbindi Mpuma omkhulu okwangoku - abizwa ngokuba yiSunni Muslim. Kwaye abazi ukuba amaSilamsi eShia alawula iIran kwaye axhasa urhulumente waseSyria akazange ahlasele iUnited States.
Ukuthetha ngokulula njengoko kufuneka kuthiwe: amaShiites kunye namaSunni ngamahlelo ahlukeneyo, kwaye amaShiites ase-Iran alwa neentshaba ezifanayo zase-US ezilwa eSiriya nakwezinye iindawo. Kwakhona, inkoliso yabantu baseMerika abafumana inkcazelo kwizinto ezilahliweyo ezikwi-Intanethi abazi ukuba ngabalandeli benzondelelo yempambano abangamaSunni kuphela ababengumkhosi wabaqweqwedisi abahlasela iWorld Trade Center ngoSeptemba 11, 2001. Babeya kumangaliswa kukufumanisa ukuba akukho namnye kwaba bantu owayevela. Iraq okanye Iran. Abayazi loo nto 15 kwabayi-19 bavela eSaudi Arabia - ekucingelwa ukuba liqabane laseUnited States. Kwaye abazi ukuba amaqhawe amaSilamsi azisa isiphithiphithi kunye nentshabalalo eSyria nase-Iraq zibhangiwe ngokuyinxenye ngamalungu e-Saudi kunye neQatari elite angenanto yakwenza neIran. Akuzange kugxininiswe - kunqabile ukuba kubhalwe ngendlela enokuthi ibonakale nakwiphephandaba lethu lerekhodi - ukuba i-Iran ngokwayo ithwele umthwalo onzima kakhulu wokulwa ne-IS.
Kubo bonke ubongameli bakhe, xa ethetha nge-Iran, u-Obama uye waxuba yonke imbonakalo yethemba lobudlelwane obuphuculweyo kunye nomlinganiselo othile we-opprobrium. Uye waphatha i-Iran njengomoni okhethekileyo ngokuchasene nemithetho yezizwe, ilizwe elifuna ingqalelo kuphela kwisizathu sokuthotywa kwezixhobo. Wenza oku ukuqinisekisa abaphezulu bomgaqo-nkqubo ukuba uyabahlonipha kwaye uyakwazi ukucula iingoma eziqhelekileyo. Kodwa oku kuthobela i-clichรฉ kuneentloni, akunanyani, kwaye akucetyiswa ngokufanelekileyo. UFranklin Roosevelt kunye noWinston Churchill abazange bayigxeke iSoviet Union xa bathabatha uzwilakhe welo lizwe, uJoseph Stalin, njengeqabane emfazweni ngo-1941, nangona izenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho zikaStalin zazingaphezu kwayo nantoni na ebangelwa yi-mullahs yase-Iranian. Ukugxeka isiko lomlingane oyimfuneko bubudenge obuselubala. Kwaye kwidemokhrasi, ithintela abantu abaqhelekileyo ukuba bafike ekuqondeni okwenzekayo.
Izivumelwano zeNyukliya kunye nabagxeki bazo, ngoko nangoku
Ngawaphi amathuba okuba i-neoconservatives kunye namaRiphabhlikhi umgaqo-nkqubo wabo abawulawulayo uya kuphumelela ekurhoxiseni isivumelwano senyukliya se-P5+1? Umntu unokufumana inkuthazo kumzamo wokugqibela wokufuna amabhongo ngokusondelelana notshaba: iincoko phakathi kukaMongameli uRonald Reagan kunye nentloko yelizwe laseSoviet uMikhail Gorbachev eReykjavik, eWashington, naseMoscow ngo-1986, 1987, no-1988. Kwangelo xesha linye. , ubani ufanele alunyukiswe yindlela okwabuliswa ngayo utshintsho olwalungalindelekanga. Ihlelo le-neoconservative lalisanda kusekwa ngoko. Ezinye zeenkokeli zayo zakuqala ezinjengoRichard Perle zinezikhundla kulawulo lweReagan, kwaye zazichase ngamxhelo mnye kwiingxoxo iya kunikezela ISivumelwano soMkhosi weNyukliya we-Intermediate-Range (INF) ye-1988. Isivumelwano sibeka imimiselo yokutshatyalaliswa kwemijukujelwa ye-2,611, ekwazi ukuhambisa ii-warheads ze-4,000 - elona nyathelo likhulu ekuthobeni umngcipheko wemfazwe yenyukliya ukususela kwiSivumelwano soVavanyo soVavanyo esaxhaswa nguMongameli. Kennedy kwaye wasweleka ngo-1963.
Kodwa njengoko uJames Mann ebalisa kuyo Imvukelo kaRonald Reagan - Ingxelo yomongameli ochasene nobukomanisi ngokumangalisayo ekuguqukeni kade kumgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle - zonke iinzame zozakuzo zikaReagan zazingavunywanga ngelo xesha, kungekuphela nje ngabashicileli be-neoconservative kodwa ngabo baphathi "bempumelelo yezozakuzo," owayesakuba nguMongameli uRichard Nixon kunye nowayesakuba nguNobhala weSebe. Urhulumente uHenry Kissinger; ngowona babhali bemihlathi basekunene abacatshulwe kakhulu, uGeorge Will noWilliam Safire; kwaye nge ixesha iphephancwadi, elaliqhuba a ibali enesihloko esithi "Ngaba uReagan Gone Soft?" Iingxoxo zeReagan-Gorbachev zajongwa ngokurhanelwa, kwakhona, "ngabanyanisi" kunye "nabamodareyitha" bezopolitiko nokhuseleko, kubandakanya uRobert Gates kunye noSekela Mongameli ngelo xesha uGeorge HW Bush. Kutheni iGates? Kuba wayengusekela mlawuli weCIA kwaye iArhente yayiqinisekile ukuba iSoviet Russia kunye nobunkokeli bayo ayinakuze itshintshe. Kutheni uBush? Kaloku wayesele egqatsela ukuba ngumongameli.
Ukusekwa kwezopolitiko kunye namajelo eendaba ngelo xesha kothuswa lutshintsho olwaphawulwa nguMongameli uReagan okokuqala ngo-1986, njengoko besothukile njengoko ukusekwa namhlanje kube kukutyikitywa kwesivumelwano se-P5+1. Lo yayinguRonald Reagan owathi ngowe-1983 wabiza iSoviet Union ngokuthi โbubukhosi obungendawo.โ Ekupheleni kotyelelo lwakhe eMoscow ngoJuni 1988, uReagan wabuzwa yintatheli yeABC News uSam Donaldson, โNgaba usacinga ukuba ukubukhosi obungendawo, Mnu.
โHayi,โ waphendula uReagan. "Bendithetha ngelinye ixesha kunye nelinye ixesha." Kwaye wabambelela kuloo mpendulo kwinkomfa yoonondaba ngosuku olulandelayo, wongeza wathi: โNdicinga ukuba uninzi [lotshintsho] lubangelwa nguNobhala Jikelele, endimfumene ngokwahlukileyo kuneenkokeli zangaphambili zaseSovietโฆ Inxalenye enkulu yayo nguMnu. Gorbachev njengenkokeli.โ
Ngo-1987, ukuthandwa kukaReagan kwakufikelele kwi-47% - ubukhulu becala ngenxa yehlazo le-Iran-Contra - kodwa waye wagcina isidima sakhe njengoyena mkhuseli ungenakuphikiswa waseNtshona ngokuchasene nobukomanisi behlabathi. U-Obama kwelakhe icala wenze konke ebenako - kufutshane ekulinganiseni iqhinga lokuhlasela kunye ne-Bush-ukugcina uqikelelo lwamandla ase-US kuMbindi Mpuma ngendlela iWashington eyiqhelile ukusukela nge-9/11. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo uyakholelwa kulo mgaqo-nkqubo, kwaye uyenzile wazingqonga nabanolwazi "imfazwe yobuntuโ; kodwa wabala ngokucacileyo ukuba isixa esinesisa sokuthobela siya kumkhusela xa ezama ukuphumelela kwakhe uthethathethwano neIran.
Ekugqibeleni, uReagan wafumana ivoti ye-93-5 kwi-Senate kwisivumelwano sakhe senyukliya kunye neSoviet Union. U-Obama unethemba lokuncinci kakhulu - ivoti engaphantsi kwesibini kwisithathu sombutho ochasene nokuhlaliswa kwe-Iran. Kodwa ujongene nobutshaba obupheleleyo beqela laseRiphabhlikhi elinomntu omtsha kunye nenkxaso yemali yohlobo olutsha.
Umkhosi waseMelika kunye neziko lokhuseleko liye laxhasa umongameli. Kwaye nangona inyani ingaziwa apha, yiba njalo uninzi lwabantu yamaSirayeli anokuthetha ngalo naliphi na igunya nemiba lokhuselo nokhuseleko. Kwanomongameli wakwaSirayeli, uReuben Rivlin, uye ityikityiwe inkolelo yakhe yokuba ungenelelo lukaNetanyahu kwezopolitiko zaseMelika alulunganga. Owayesakuba yiNkulumbuso u-Ehud Barak ucebise ukuba, nangona ngokuthandabuza, u-Israyeli kufuneka asamkele isivumelwano senyukliya kwaye enze ukuqonda kunye ne-US malunga nento ekufuneka yenziwe xa yophulwa. Kule mvumelwano iphawulekayo kufuneka yongezwe ileta kawonke-wonke - esayinwe zizazinzulu ezingama-29 zaseMelika, uninzi lwazo zibandakanyeka ngokunzulu kwimiba yenyukliya, kubandakanya abafumana iBhaso leNobel - eliqinisekisa ukuqina kwesivumelwano kwaye lincoma ubungqongqo "obungazange bubonwe ngaphambili" beentsuku ezingama-24 zokulibaziseka kweIran kwindawo. ukuhlola: isithuba esifutshane kakhulu (njengoko kungekho mntu wazi ngcono kunezi nzululwazi) kangangokuba ukufihlwa ngempumelelo kwemisebenzi yenyukliya kube yinto engenakwenzeka.
Ezinye iileta zikawonke-wonke ezimbini ezixhasa isivumelwano senyukliya ziye zaphawuleka. Eyokuqala yaba sayinwe ngoozakuzaku base-US ababesamkela isivumelwano ngokungathandabuzekiyo, phakathi kwabo uRyan Crocker, unozakuzaku waseMelika e-Iraq emva kwe2003; Nicholas Burns, owathethathethana ne-Iran malunga noBush omncinane; kunye noDaniel Kurtzer, owayesakuba ngunozakuzaku kwaSirayeli naseYiphutha owayesebenza phantsi koMongameli Bill Clinton kunye noGeorge W. Bush. Enye ileta iqulethe igunya lomntu kunye neziko le ezininzi yee-admirals ezidla umhlala-phantsi kunye neenjengele. Ukusondele kakhulu kwindlela yokumanyana kwiinzuzo zesivumelwano phakathi komkhosi wase-US, ezozakuzo, kunye noluntu lwenzululwazi alufane lufezekiswe. Nkqu noMongameli uReagan akakwazanga ukubanga eli nqanaba lenkxaso ngabagwebi abafanelekileyo xa engenisa isivumelwano se-INF kwiSenethi.
Loo macebiso afanele abonise isizathu esivakalayo sokuba nethemba. Kodwa abalandeli baka-Obama baya kuba nzima ukubiza ukhuphiswano ukuba lutsale kumabonwakude nakunomathotholo. I-neoconservatives - kunye namaRiphabhlikhi abahambisayo - baphinde baphinde Sebenza kunye elingenammiselo amandla. Amakhondo emisebenzi ayakhiwa kulo mlo, njengakwimeko ye USenator uTom Cotton, nangaphezulu kwesinye ugqatswa lobumongameli ibethelelwe kuyo.
Ngomhla wentetho ka-Obama, nditsho nomsasazi onolwazi njengoCharlie Rose vunyelwe uguqulo lwakhe lokujikela kabukhali ngokuchasene nesivumelwano. Iindwendwe zakhe ezine yayizezi Haaretz intatheli uChemi Shalev; i Isilwanyana samhla ngemihla umbhali wemihlathi uJonathan Alter; owayesakuba ligosa leSebe likaRhulumente kunye nomongameli weBhunga lezoBudlelwane baNgaphandle uRichard Haass; kunye ne-neoconservative venture capitalist, uMark Dubowitz, othe waphathwa njengengcali kwimigaqo-nkqubo yenyukliya kunye norhulumente wase-Iran.
UHaass, esichasa ngokukrakra isivumelwano, wathi intetho kamongameli "ibiyeyona nto iphambili," kwaye unethemba lokuba iCongress iza kulungisa "iziphene" zayo ezicacileyo. UShalev ulinganise le ntetho ngokunyaniseka kwaye "eqhayisa" kodwa wacinga ukuba iya kushiya uninzi lwamaYuda "lukhubekile." UDubowitz uthethe ngeIran njengelizwe elikhohlakeleyo elifanele ukuthotyelwa izohlwayo ezingapheliyo. Isisombululo sakhe: "Xhobisa umongameli olandelayo ukuba abuyele emva kwaye axoxisane." UJonathan Alter yedwa uye wakhusela isivumelwano.
Ukucwangcisa ukuhlasela i-Iran, i-2002-2015
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, abathathi-nxaxheba abasebenzayo kumagqabantshintshi aqhelekileyo kwiMfazwe yoBugrogrisi bonke banembali, kwaye umntu unokufunda into entle ngokujonga ngasemva. UHaass, umzekelo, intsika yokusekwa komgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle, wasebenza kwiSebe likaRhulumente phantsi kukaBush noCheney kunye akenzanga inkcaso esidlangalaleni kwiMfazwe yaseIraq. U-Dubowitz usandul 'ukubhala amanqaku amaninzi kunye no-Reuel Marc Gerecht, i-propagandist ehamba phambili kwi-2003 yokuhlasela kwe-Iraq. Kwi isiqwenga sophawu kwi Wall Street Journal ngoNovemba ophelileyo, uGerecht kunye noDubowitz baphikisana ukuba uthethathethwano lwe-P5 + 1 lwavula indlela eya kwibhombu yenyukliya ye-Iran. UMongameli u-Obama, bathi, wayebuthathaka kakhulu kwaye ebanjwe ziimpazamo zakhe ukuba ahlole nayiphi na enye indlela, kodwa kwakukho "iimeko" ezintathu ezinokuqwalaselwa ngumongameli onobulumko nonamandla. Okokuqala, "i-White House inokunikezela kwi-diplomacy kwaye ihlasele ngokukhawuleza iindawo zenyukliya zase-Iran"; okwesibini, "abalawuli banokunikezela kwiingxoxo ezikhoyo kwaye babuyele kwisohlwayo"; okwesithathu, "izohlwayo ezitsha, nangakumbi zinokuphunyezwa, nto leyo eyenza iTehran ibe buhlungu kakhulu." Uluhlu lwemigaqo-nkqubo ecetyiswayo, ye-Gerecht kunye ne-Dubowitz, iqala "ngezohlwayo ezikhubazayo" kwaye iphetha ngemfazwe yobundlobongela.
Ezi meko zibonakalisa "iinketho" ze-neoconservative. Ebhala yedwa ngaphakathi le Atlantic ngoJuni 2013, uDubowitz wazisa abafundi baseMelika ukuba akukho nto banokuyibhiyozela kunyulo lukamongameli lwase-Iran oluzisa amandla uHassan Rouhani obonakala enengqondo kwaye ephakathi. "Umntu othembekileyo kwinkokeli ephezulu yase-Iran kunye nenkosi yobuqhetseba benyukliya," uRouhani, njengoko etolikwa nguDubowitz, ngumhlobo wobuxoki onegunya elitsha "elingasisondezi ekumiseni i-Iran yenyukliya."
Cinga ngoGerecht kwiinqwelomoya zakhe eyedwa kwaye uyabona ukuba yintoni eyenza umongameli athi aba ngabantu abasinike iMfazwe yase-Iraq. Babeqinisekile ngoko malunga nokulungileyo okuza kulandela ukuqhushumba kwebhombu kunye nokuhlasela kwelo lizwe njengoko ngoku malunga neenzuzo zokuhlasela i-Iran. Ewe, uGerecht unomahluko wokuba wabiza uhlaselo lwase-Iran nangaphambi kokusungulwa ngokusemthethweni kwesicwangciso sikaBush e-Iraq.
Kuthiwa uDick Cheney ka-Agasti 26, 2002, intetho kumaVeteran eeMfazwe zaNgaphandle kuphawulwe inkcazo yokuqala esesikweni yeMfazwe yobugrogrisi enikezelwa yinkokeli yase-US kubemi baseMelika. Kodwa uGerecht, owayesakuba yingcali yeCIA kuMbindi Mpuma, weba umngcelele owawusiya kusekela mongameli. Kwi Umgangatho Weveki ka-Agasti 6, 2002, phantsi komxholo othi โUtshintsho lolawulo eIran?,โ wachaza inkolelo yakhe yokuba uMongameli Bush wayengumnini โwenguqu nesibongozoโฆ kuMbindi Mpuma.โ UBush omncinci wayenayo
โInqunyulwe kwimida yelizwe kunye nokwahlukana kwempucuko kugxininiswa ngokungachanekanga kwemilinganiselo yokuziphatha. Umongameli wathi, 'Abantu base-Iran bafuna inkululeko efanayo, amalungelo oluntu, kunye namathuba njengabantu kwihlabathi jikelele.' IMerika iya kuma โkunye nabantu kuyo yonke indawo abazimisele ukwakha ihlabathi lenkululeko, isidima nokunyamezelana.โโ
Umhlalutyi uGerecht wathatha apho umshumayeli uBush wayeka khona: ilizwe elichaphazelekayo ukuhlasela ngo-Agasti 2002 - egameni labantu balo ngokuqinisekileyo - yi-Iran. UGerecht akazange ayithandabuze loo nto
โAbantu baseIran balujonga kakhulu ulawulo lwabefundisi njengolungekho mthethweni. Abefundisi baseNtshona kakhulu besiseko senkolo sase-Iran - kwaye ezi mullah zikumacala omabini okubizwa ngokuba 'yimodareyitha-i-conservative' yoqhekeko - bazi kakuhle ukuba igama lesiPersi elithi azadi, 'inkululeko,' mhlawumbi lelona gama lichukumisayo kulwimi. ngokuโฆ I-Azadi iye yanxulumana ne-United States.
Le yayiyindlela i-neoconservatives eyayisele ibhala kwaye icinga ngayo ngo-Agasti 2002. Kunzima ukwazi ukuba yeyiphi eyona nto imangalisayo, umboniso we-philological virtuosity okanye ukuzithemba malunga nokucetyiswa kwemfazwe ngokuchasene nesizwe se-70 yezigidi.
Uqikelelo oluqhelekileyo, nangona kunjalo, alunakuze lwanele kwi-neoconservatives, kwaye uGerecht ngo-2002 wachaza iinzuzo ezithile zokuphazamiseka e-Iraq nase-Iran:
"Uhlaselo lwaseMelika [e-Iraq] lunokubangela uqhushululu e-Iran - uqhankqalazo ngaxeshanye kwizixeko ezikhulu olunokuthi lube ngaphaya kwemida yolawulo oluthembekileyo olukhethekileyo lokulawula uqhushululu. Umkhosi okanye i-Revolutionary Guard Corps kuya kufuneka itsalwe enkonzweni ngamanani amakhulu, kwaye kulapho izinto zinokuba nomdla. "
Yile ndlela afumene ngayo amanqaku. UBush, ilizwi lenkululeko, uya kunqulwa njengomlawuli onobubele kumgama:
โUMongameli Bush, ewe, akafuni kusasazo lukamabonakude weSizwe ukuze asasaze umyalezo wakhe kwiRiphabhliki yamaSilamsi. Yonke into ayithethayo ihamba ngesantya sokukhanya elizweni. Umongameli kufuneka aqhubeke ethetha ngenkululeko njengelungelo lokuzalwa labantu abangamaSilamsi. "
Yayinjalo iresiphi ye-neoconservative yedemokhrasi kuMbindi Mpuma: bethelela amazwi kaGeorge W. Bush ebantwini kuyo yonke indawo, hlasela i-Iraq, kwaye uvuse imvukelo yedemokhrasi e-Iran (incediswa ukuba kuyimfuneko ziibhombu namajoni ase-US).
Ukufumana umbono wokugqibela "wengqondo" efanayo, jonga ngokusondeleyo kwiingcebiso zikaGerecht ngeSyria ngoJuni ka-2014. Ukubhala kwakhona kwi Umgangatho weveki, wayeka kwa kwa umbono wokufumana uncedo oluvela eIran kumlo ochasene noMbuso wamaSilamsi. "Utshaba lotshaba lwam lutshaba lwam" lubhengeza isihloko sesiqwenga, kwaye inqaku lenza inqaku elifanayo ngokuxhomekeka okuncinci kwiinyani. Abanqolobi beSunni baboniswa njengolutsha olunenzondelelo oluhamba kakhulu ngokwendalo, kodwa kusekude kakhulu ukuba balinganise indlela abacinga ngayo: utshintsho abaluzisayo alunakuba lungonwabisiyo kumdla waseMelika. Iingqondi zamaShiite zaseIran, kwelinye icala, kudala zafikelela ekukhuleni ngokupheleleyo kwaye azisoze zitshintshe. Ithemba likaGerecht, kwihlobo elidlulileyo, yayikukuba abantu abaninzi base-Iranian abenzakeleyo kumlo ochasene ne-IS baya kukhokelela kuqhankqalazo oluzenzekelayo olwasilela ukwenziwa ngo-2003.
"Kusenokwenzeka ukuba ungquzulwano lwangoku lweSunni-Shiite lunokuthi, ukuba inani le-Iranian liyenyuka kwaye kuchithwa ubutyebi belizwe obuninzi, livelise amaza othusayo awenza buthathaka urhulumente wabefundisi ... Izinto zinokuba nobundlobongela ngaphakathi kwiRiphabhlikhi yamaSilamsi."
Umbono ophantsi kwalo mgaqo-nkqubo ufikelela ekukhetheni okanye ekunyamezeleni iqhinga kwe-al-Qaeda kunye ne-IS ngenjongo yokutshabalalisa i-Iran.
Ngaba Imfazwe Yobugrogrisi Iza Kuxoxwa?
Iimbono ezinjalo zinokuphikiswa njani kwezopolitiko zaseMelika? Impendulo kuya kufuneka ivele kwinto eseleyo yeqela eliphikisayo elinokubakho kumlo wobugrogrisi. USenator Chris Murphy of Connecticut uye waba a ngaphandle okuphawulekayo, kodwa ubukhulu becala iiDemokhrasi zixakeke ngomgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya. Ukuba phantse isibini kwisithathu seCongress namhlanje sikulungele ukuvota ngokuchasene nokuhlaliswa kwe-Iran, le ntloni yisiphumo seminyaka yokungahoywa okucwangcisiweyo. USherrod Brown, uElizabeth Warren, uDick Durbin, uRon Wyden, uTammy Baldwin, kunye nabanye abambalwa banetalente yokukhokela inkcaso yokusukela imfazwe yobugrogrisi kwisicwangciso se-neoconservative, kodwa ukuze babe nayo nayiphi na impembelelo kuya kufuneka bathethe. rhoqo kumgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle.
Ngeli xesha, i-Republican Party kunye nayo billionaire bankrollers badlala umdlalo omde eIran. Bangathanda ukufumana isininzi sesibini esithathwini sokugqithisa ivoti ka-Obama yevoti yeCongress ngokuchasene nesivumelwano senyukliya, kodwa musa ukulindela ngokwenene ukuba kwenzeke. Ukusinda kwaso nasiphi na isivumelwano, nangona kunjalo, akuxhomekanga kuphela ekuvunyweni kwaso kodwa nasekugunyazisweni kwaso. Ithemba labo kukucinezela inkxaso yoluntu kwisivumelwano se-P5+1 kangangokuba umongameli olandelayo kunye namalungu eNkongolo elandelayo angafuna inkalipho engaqhelekanga ukuze aqhubeke nenxaxheba yaseMelika.
Kwi Imicimbi yabangaphandle ikholamu ekhankanywe ngaphambili, uDaniel Levy ugqibe kwelokuba umdlalo omde ukwalicebo likaBenjamin Netanyahu:
"UNetanyahu uya kufumana isibini - ukuba uphulukene nesininzi sobungqina be-veto kwiCongress, usengakwazi ukuphumelela ekugcineni i-Iran ijongana nezopolitiko kwaye ibuthathaka kwaye ithintele nakuphi na ukungazithembi kunye ne-Iran. Ithemba, kule meko, lelokuba ulawulo olulandelayo lwase-US lungaphinda luqalise nge-status quo ante ngoJanuwari 2017. "
Le nto siyibonayo, ke, ayingomzamo wokugxila oza kuphelisa ngevoti yeSenethi ngoSeptemba kwisivumelwano senyukliya se-P5 + 1. Linqanaba lokuqala lephulo lokuphembelela elijonge ukungenisa umongameli weRiphabhlikhi yeembono ezifanelekileyo ngoJanuwari ka-2017.
Omnye unokuqonda ukuba imali ikhona kwi-drive yexesha elide kwaye kodwa usazibuza nge-virulence yephulo lokutshabalalisa i-Iran. Yintoni kanye evumela iqela lemfazwe ukuba liqhubeke njengoko lenza? Ngaphakathi kwa-Israyeli, unobangela yimfundiso yezakwalizwi yezopolitiko ebophelela amakholwa ayo ukuba alwe iimfazwe zangaphambili ngaphandle kwesiphelo esibonakalayo ukuze akhusele iintshaba ezichase ubukho belizwe lamaJuda kususela ekudalweni kwalo. Olu luloyiko olukhuselayo oluphendula kwinyani engenakuphikiswa yembali. I-neoconservatives kunye nokwaziswa okungcono phakathi kwabalandeli babo baseRiphabhlikhi kunzima ukuyiqonda - kunzima ngakumbi ude uqonde ukuba, kubo, singaseRoma kwaye i-Republican Party sisiqalo sabalawuli baseMelika bexesha elizayo, abalawuli kunye namabamba.
"I-Ideology," njengoko umbhali wezopolitiko kunye nomchasi waseCzech uVaclav Havel wakhe wabhala, "yibhulorho yezizathu" urhulumente anika abantu abalawulayo. Phakathi kuka-2001 kunye no-2009, urhulumente wase-US wayeqhutywa yi-neoconservatives; baba nokudubula okufanelekileyo kwaye umgwebo woluntu waya ngokuchasene nabo; kodwa kwimeko yesiphithiphithi esiphinda sabakho ngoMbindi Mpuma, baye bahamba umgama omde ekwakhiweni ngokutsha kwebhulorho yabo. Bangabantu abanenzondelelo kodwa bakwangabasebenzi abalumkileyo, yaye indibaniselwano yemali nokusasazwa kobuxoki obuvuselelweyo kusenokuphumelela ekusitheni iinkumbulo ezininzi ezingonwabisiyo. Yaye abanakutyholwa ngokunganyaniseki. Xa i-theorist kwitanki yokucinga ye-neoconservative, iSiseko soKhuselo lweDemokhrasi okanye iZiko loShishino laseMelika, liqinisekisa ukuba idemokhrasi yinto abantu base-Iranian abaya kuba nayo nje ukuba i-US ikhubaze ubutyebi belo lizwe, ngokuqinisekileyo uyayikholelwa le nto ayithethayo. . Uqikelelo lubonakala luyinyani kubo ngoku njengoko kwakunjalo kwi-2002, 2007, kunye ne-2010, njengenyani njengoko kuya kuba ngo-2017 xa umongameli omtsha, ngokukhethekileyo omnye umfana "womoya" njengoGeorge W. Bush, ephumelela ababuthathaka kwaye elusizi uBarack Obama. Kubantu abanjalo, idabi alipheli, kwaye kusoloko kukho enye imfazwe ngaphambili. Ziyakutyhala de zimiswe.
UDavid Bromwich, a TomDispatch njalo, ufundisa uncwadi kwiYunivesithi yaseYale kwaye ungumbhali we Ingcamango Yokuziphatha.
Eli nqaku lavela okokuqala kwi-TomDispatch.com, iblogi yeSizwe yeZiko, ebonelela ngokuhamba ngokuqhubekayo kweminye imithombo, iindaba, kunye noluvo oluvela kuTom Engelhardt, umhleli wexesha elide ekupapasheni, umseki weProjekthi yoBukhosi baseMelika, umbhali we Ukuphela kweNkcubeko yoloyiso, njengenoveli, Iintsuku zokuGqibela zokuPapasha. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje nguRhulumente weShadow: Uvavanyo, iiMfazwe eziMfihlo, kunye neLizwe loKhuseleko lweHlabathi kwiLizwe laMandla aMandla oMnye (Iincwadi zeHaymarket).n
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
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