Elinye lamashishini amakhulu okukhula eWashington kukukhuthaza uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali. Amaqela afumana inkxaso-mali kakuhle anemisitho yeveki, ukuba ayingomhla nezolo, eyenzelwe ukunyusela imeko yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali yelizwe. Uninzi lwamajelo eendaba esizwe, okona kubaluleke kakhulu iWashington Post, baye bazibandakanya kulo mzamo, benikela ngoluvo lwabo kunye namacandelo eendaba ngokubhekisele kule njongo.
Ngelishwa kwishishini lengxaki yokusilela, iinyani zisenokungavumi ngenkani ukusebenzisana. Nayiphi na ingxoxo yentsilelo ifuna ukwahlula ixesha elifutshane kunye nebali elide. Ibali lexesha elifutshane lilula kakhulu. Uqoqosho lwawohloka ngo-2008 xa kwaqhambuka iqamza lezindlu. Elo libali lokushota okukhulu kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali esilubonileyo kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo.
Abalandeli be-Congressional Budget Office (CBO) banokubuyela emva ukuze babone uqikelelo lwabo ukususela ngoJanuwari ka-2008, ngaphambi kokuba i-CBO ibone iziphumo ze-bubble eqhumayo. Intsilelo yayiyi-1.2 yepesenti encinci ye-GDP ngo-2007. Intsilelo yayiqikelelwa ukuba ihlale kufutshane ne-1.0 yepesenti ye-GDP kwiminyaka emithathu ezayo, de kube sekupheleni kokucuthwa kwerhafu yaseBush. kuqikelelwa ukuba iza kutyhalela uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali kwintshiyekela ngo-2012. Nokuba ukucuthwa kwerhafu yaseBush bekungavunyelwanga ukuba kuphelelwe lixesha, ilizwe linokuqhuba ngokwenyani intsilelo ye-1-2 yepesenti ye-GDP ngonaphakade.
Kwakungekho neenkqubo ezintsha zenkcitho ezisisigxina okanye unciphiso lwerhafu olubekwe ngo-2008 okanye ngo-2009.
Intsilelo yenyuka ngenxa yokuba ukudodobala koqoqosho kubangele ukuhla kwengeniso yerhafu kwaye kubangele inkcitho kwiinkqubo ezifana neenzuzo zokungaphangeli ukuba zitsibe. Kukwakho nemilinganiselo yethutyana eyenzelwe ukuchasana nokuhla, njengenkcitho ekhuthazayo kunye nokucuthwa kwerhafu yomvuzo. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba bekungekho ngenxa yokuhla, le migaqo-nkqubo ngengazange iphunyezwe.
Oku kuthetha ukuba ukungabikho kokuhla, akukho ngxaki yexeshana elifutshane. Bekungayi kubakho nto yenzekileyo kwishishini lengxaki yokusilela.
Kwixesha elide, ishishini lengxaki yentsilelo lingakhomba kuqikelelo oloyikisayo lwentsilelo enkulu kwishumi leminyaka elizayo kwaye ezinkulu nangaphaya. Ezi ntsilelo ziye zaqhutywa ngokugqithisileyo luqikelelo lweendleko zokhathalelo lwempilo ezikhulayo. I-United States isele ihlawula ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabini kumntu ngamnye ngononophelo lwezempilo njengabantu bamanye amazwe acebileyo, kungekho nto ingabonakalisa ngayo kwindlela yeziphumo. Uqikelelo lwentsilelo eyoyikisayo lucinga ukuba lo msantsa kwiindleko zokhathalelo lwempilo uya kuqhubeka nokukhula.
Nangona kunjalo, ngoku kubonakala ngathi iindleko zokunakekelwa kwempilo zinokuthi zingayilandeli indlela ethathwa yi-CBO kunye nabanye ababikezeli abasemthethweni. Idatha ye-GDP yekota yesithathu ekhutshwe kwiveki ephelileyo ibonise ukuba inkcitho yokwenyani ekunakekelweni kwempilo yawa kwikota yesibini elandelelanayo kwaye loo nkcitho ebizwa ngokuba yi-nominal ikhule ngepesenti ye-0.5 kuphela yonyaka.
Enyanisweni, izinga lokukhula kwenkcitho yokhathalelo lwempilo liye latshintshwa ngokuphawulekayo iminyaka emininzi. Inkcitho encinci kwiinkonzo zokhathalelo lwempilo inyuke nge-4.5 ekhulwini kunyaka ophelileyo kunye nesiqingatha. Oku kuthelekiswa nokunyuka kweepesenti ze-11 kwinkcitho yokusetyenziswa ngokubanzi ngexesha elifanayo. Inkcitho bekuqikelelwa ukuba iza kukhula phantse kabini kulo mlinganiselo.
Nangona kusesekuseni kakhulu ukwenza izigqibo eziqinisekileyo, kubonakala ngathi iindleko zokhathalelo lwempilo e-United States zinokuzinza. Ukuba le pateni iyaqhubeka, ngoko asiyi kuba nayo ingxaki yexesha elide. Ukuba iindleko zethu zokhathalelo lwempilo bezihambelana nezo zakwamanye amazwe, siya kujonga uqikelelo lwentsalela yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwexesha elide.
Ukuzisa iindleko zonyango eUnited States ngokuhambelana neendleko kwamanye amazwe acebileyo akufanele kube ngumsebenzi ongenakwenzeka. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, i-US ayinakuba yonakele kakhulu kune-Itali, iSpain, okanye amanye amazwe akwazile ukuqulatha iindleko zabo zokhathalelo lwempilo. Nangona kunjalo, abaninzi bethu bacinga ukuba kuya kuthatha utshintsho olukhulu lomgaqo-nkqubo ukuquka iindleko zokunakekelwa kwempilo, njengenkqubo ye-Medicare yendalo yonke, okanye ubuncinane ukunika abantu ithuba lokuthenga kwinkqubo ye-Medicare ekhoyo.
Ukuba kuvela ukuba ulwakhiwo olukhoyo-mhlawumbi ngokutyhala ukusuka kwiinguqu ezibandakanyiweyo kwi-Affordable Care Act-sanele ukuquka iindleko, oko kuya kuba kuhle ngokwenene. Ubuncinane enye imali ebebeya kuyisebenzisa abaqeshi ekuhlawuleni izavenge zeinshorensi ngoku iya kwimivuzo ephezulu. Kwaye amabali amasikizi ebhajethi yexesha elide aya kunyamalala kakhulu.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, le mbonakalo yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali iphuculweyo iya kuba ziindaba ezimbi kwishishini lengxaki yokusilela. Emva kokwakha umfutho ongaka kule minyaka idlulileyo kunye nokunyusa imali eninzi kangaka koosozigidi noosozigidi bezigidi, ngequbuliso baya kuphelelwa yinjongo. Oku kunokubangela ukuba ishishini lengxaki yentsilelo liphume ishishini. Kuhlala kulishwa xa abantu belahlekelwa yimisebenzi, kodwa kule meko, kuya kuba sisizathu esihle.
UDean Baker yi-macroeconomist kunye no-co-director we Iziko loPhando lwezoQoqosho kunye noMgaqo-nkqubo eWashington, DC. Ngaphambili wayesebenza njengengcali yezoqoqosho kwiZiko loMgaqo-nkqubo wezoQoqosho kunye nomncedisi kanjingalwazi kwiYunivesithi yaseBucknell. Ungumbhali wemihla ngemihla weTruthout kwaye ulilungu leBhodi yabaCebisi beTruthout.
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