Akukho mda, kubonakala ngathi, kwixabiso legazi ama-Arabhu kufuneka ahlawule "intwasahlobo" yawo. Emva kwembubhiso eyenzeka eYiputa, eYemen, eBahrain naseLibya, uqhankqalazo lwaseSyria oluneenyanga ezili-11 ubudala luya lusiba mbi ngakumbi. Iintsuku ezine ze uqhushumbo lwezithili ezilawulwa ngabavukeli kwisixeko saseSyria iHoms baye baveza imifanekiso eyoyikekayo kunye neengxelo ezivela kwabo baxabeneyo UBab al-Amr inqaba yenkcaso: yeemosque ezizele zizidumbu, izitalato ezithe saa amalungu omzimba, iindawo zokuhlala zibe yingqushu.
Usasazo lukamabonakude kwilizwe lama-Arabhu lusengumzobo ngakumbi, kwaye impembelelo iyaxhuzula. Nokuba zeziphi iingxabano malunga nenani labafi macala omabini, ubungakanani bokubandezeleka kwabantu abunakuphikiswa - kwaye buza emva kweminyaka ephantse ibe ngunyaka wokuhlaselwa kwegazi, ukuthuthunjiswa kunye nokuziphindezela ngamahlelo.
Ke nini I-Russia kunye ne-China zivotele isigqibo se-UN esixhaswe yintshona ngoMgqibelo egxeka urhulumente ka-Bashar al-Assad, efuna ukuba imikhosi yakhe ibuyele kwiindawo zokuhlala kwaye ixhase isicwangciso se-Arab League sokuba athathelwe indawo, iinkokeli zase-US kunye neBhritane kunye namahlakani abo, achazwe ngamajelo asentshona, aziva ekwazi ukuyigxeka "njengezothe". kunye nesenzo โesilihlazoโ sokungcatsha amaSiriya.
Kodwa loo nto ithatha inguqu yolawulo olunyanzeliswe ngaphandle, nto leyo ibandakanya isisombululo, inokuthi isebenze, ibe semthethweni okanye iyeke ukubulala. Ngokumisela "inkqubo yezopolitiko" enesiphumo esimiselwe kwangaphambili, ukurhoxiswa komkhosi waseSyria ezitratweni ngaphandle kwemfuno efanayo kumaqela abavukeli abaxhobileyo, kunye nokuphunyezwa ngokupheleleyo kwiintsuku ezingama-21 - kunye nelungiselelo "lolunye amanyathelo" xa kwenzeka " ukungathotyelwa kwemithetho"- ikwahlahle indlela yongenelelo lomkhosi wamazwe angaphandle.
Kuye kwafunwa ngokubanzi ukuba i-veto ephindwe kabini inike u-Assad ukukhanya okuluhlaza ukuba aqinise ingcinezelo kwaye enze imfazwe yamakhaya epheleleyo. Kodwa ngokukhupha i-UN-backed intervention, inokuthi ibeke uxinzelelo kwiqela eliphikisayo eliphambili, iBhunga leSizwe laseSyria elixhaswa yintshona, ukuba lithetha-thethane - kuba isicwangciso sayo sisekwe ekudaleni iimeko. indawo yaseLibya yokungabhabha.
I-Russia ne-China zisebenzise i-Syria ukucela umngeni kwiinzame zasentshona zokuthintela uvukelo lwama-Arabhu ngenxa yeminqweno yazo. I-veto yomeleze isandla saseRussia kunye nolawulo luka-Assad, ngelixa amagosa aseRashiya aqinisekise ngasese iinkokeli eziphikisayo ukuba ingxabano i-US, kungekhona bona. Kwaye uBarack Obama ngoku uthembise "ukuzama ukusombulula oku ngaphandle kokungenelela kumkhosi wangaphandle".
Kodwa oko kusekude ukuyilawula. Sele i-US, iinkokeli zaseBrithani kunye neFrentshi zixakeke ngokuseka umfelandawonye omtsha ozimiseleyo kunye namahlakani abo aseSaudi kunye neGulf, ngokuhlekisayo athi "abahlobo bedemokhrasi yaseSyria", ukwakha inkcaso kunye nokugxotha uAssad emandleni.
Ungenelelo sele lusenzeka. I-Saudis kunye neQataris kuxelwe ukuba ixhasa ngemali kwaye ixhobisa inkcaso. Umkhosi wasimahla waseSyria unendawo ekhuselekileyo eTurkey. Imikhosi ekhethekileyo yaseNtshona kuthiwa inika inkxaso yasemkhosini phantsi. Kwaye ukuba oko kuyasilela, i-UN inokugqithwa ngokucela "uxanduva lokukhusela" abemi, kunye nemigca yaseLibya.
Kodwa akukho nanye kwezi eya kukuphelisa ukubulala. Iya kunyuswa. Eso sisifundo esicacileyo songenelelo lweNato kunyaka ophelileyo eLibya. Xa yaqalisayo, inani labafayo laliyi-1,000 2,000 ukusa kwangama-10 XNUMX. Ngexesha u-Muammar Gaddafi wabanjwa waza wabulawa kwiinyanga ezisixhenxe kamva, kwakuqikelelwa ngaphezu kwe-XNUMX elo nani. I ilifa longenelelo lwangaphandle eLibya nayo ibe bubunzima ukuhlanjululwa kobuhlanga, ukungcungcuthekiswa nokuvalelwa ngaphandle kwetyala, ungquzulwano lwezixhobo oluqhubekayo, kunye nolawulo olulungelelanisiweyo lwentshona kangangokuba aluzange luvume ukuxela amagama amalungu alo.
I-Russia kunye ne-China ngoku zisayine ukuba azisayi kuphinda zibekho iiLibya ezigunyaziswe yi-UN. Kodwa kwi-US, iBritane kunye namahlakani abo ukuba bazibandakanye ekuziphatheni okuhle phezu kweSyria okanye bazenze abahlobo babantu bayo. Ayiloxanduva lwabo kuphela lokufa kwamakhulu amawaka e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan okanye, yithi, inkxaso yabo kulawulo lobuzwilakhe lwaseBahrain - nanjengoko icinezela ngogonyamelo imvukelo yayo ngelixa ixhasa isisombululo se-UN senguqu yedemokhrasi eSyria. Kangangeminyaka engama-45, baye babhala phantsi ngokuhlala kukaSirayeli kwi-Syria Golan Heights, kodwa ngoku bathembisa ngokuqinisekisa โingqibelelo yomhlabaโ yaseSyria.
Ingxaki yaseSyria isebenza kumanqanaba amaninzi. Inxalenye yalo luqhankqalazo oluxhaphakileyo oluchasene norhulumente wobuzwe obunobuzwilakhe, nosenenkxaso ebalulekileyo yoluntu. Phantsi koxinzelelo oluqhubekayo loo mvukelo iye yanda ukuba yintoni na Ingxelo evuzayo yemishini yeArab League ichazwa โnjengequmrhu elixhobileyoโ.
Ungquzulwano luthathe indawo embi yehlelo, njengoko oomatshini bokhuseleko abalawulwa yi-Alawite berhweba ngoloyiko lwabantu abancinci beqela elichasayo leSunni. Emhlabeni, oko kondle ukugcwala kwe-Iraqi kunye neLebhanon-style yokuhlanjululwa kunye nokubulawa kwabantu.
Kodwa inqanaba lesithathu-indima yeSyria njengelona qabane liphambili leqhinga lase-Iran- yeyona nto ibangele ukuba le ngxaki ibe yityhefu kakhulu kwindawo apho intshona kunye nabathengi bayo bama-Arabhu baye bazama ukuguqula umsinga wokuvuka kwama-Arabhu ukuze kuxhamle bona ngokunyusa ungquzulwano kunye. eTehran.
Ukubhukuqwa kolawulo lwaseSyria kuya kuba sisibetho esibi kwimpembelelo yeIran kuMbindi Mpuma. Kwaye njengoko ungquzulwano lwaseSyria luye lwanda, ngokunjalo nokujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo kwentshona-nakwaSirayeli kunye neIran. Nanjengonobhala wezokhuselo waseMelika uLeon Panetta kwaye Umlawuli wezobukrelekrele welizwe uJames Clapper uvumile ukuba i-Iran ayisenanto yonke "izama ukwakha isixhobo senyukliya", uPanetta wenze ukuba kwaziwe ukuba kukho "ithuba elinamandla" U-Israyeli uza kuhlasela i-Iran kwangoko ngo-Epreli, ngelixa i-Iran ijongene nesohlwayo se-oyile ye-EU ngenxa yenkqubo yayo yenyukliya.
Ungenelelo lwaseNtshona eSyria - kunye neRussia kunye neTshayina inkcaso kuyo - inokuqondwa kuphela kulo mxholo: njengenxalenye yemfazwe yeproxy echasene ne-Iran, esongela ngokuyingozi ukuba ibe ngqo. Kukho uphawu oluncinci, okwangoku, lolawulo lwaseSyria okanye inkcaso eyenza impumelelo.
Ukuba inkcaso ayikwazi ukudubula indlela yayo yokulawula kwaye ulawulo alufaki, ekuphela kwendlela yokuphuma kwimfazwe yamakhaya kuxoxiswano lwezopolitiko olukhokelela kunyulo lokwenene. Ukuma naliphi na ithuba lempumelelo, oko ngoku kuya kufuneka kuqinisekiswe ngamagunya aphambili kulo mmandla nangaphaya. Enye indlela yokungenelela kozwilakhe wasentshona kunye neGulf kunokukhokelela kuphela kuphalazo-gazi olukhulu kakhulu-kwaye ukukhanyela ulawulo lwamaSyria kwilizwe labo.
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Nikela