Kubekho iinguqu ezimbini kuphela zehlabathi. Esinye senzeka ngowe-1848, esesibini senzeka ngowe-1968. Zombini zaliguqula ihlabathi. Inyani yokuba bobabini bebengacwangciswanga, kwaye ke ngoko ngengqiqo enzulu yazenzekela, icacisa zombini izibakala-inyani yokuba basilela, kunye nenyaniso yokuba baliguqula ilizwe.
UGiovanni Arrighi (1989)
Le yimihla yobumnyama eYiputa. Njengoko ulawulo oludala luqhubela phambili uguquko olunegazi, umdla wabavukeli owakha wavuselela inkitha yabantu eTahrir uya unikezela kucalucalulo, ukugxeka kunye nokuphelelwa lithemba. "Yonke into yayinokwenzeka," u-Omar Robert Hamilton weqela laseMosireen ukhala iqhekeza elibuhlungu kuba Mada Masr, ecinga ngeentsuku ezinethemba xa uMubarak wayesandula ukubhukuqwa kwaye abaguquli abancinci nabakhaliphile baseYiputa baqalisa ukwakha ilizwe elitsha. Ibala lalivuliwe. Ubuninzi bekamva beza phakathi. Intelekelelo yayisemandleni.
Kodwa umoya wovukelo olungenankokeli owawisa uzwilakhe ophantsi ngoku uyafuthaniselwa phezulu. Umanyano olusekwe ngokubanzi oludumileyo olwabhukuqa uMubarak luye lwawa. I-Muslim Brotherhood yangcatsha i-revolution kuphela ukuba ilume amandla amaninzi kunokuba inokuhlafuna. Abakhululekileyo batshisa intsalela encinci yokuthembeka kwenguquko ababeyishiyile ngokutsiba ngokukhawuleza kwibhobhothi yeminqweno engafanelekanga yomkhosi. Ulutsha olulwela inguquko olwaphembelela umzabalazo ezitalatweni luzifumanisa lucandelwe ngokutsha. Yonke into yayinokwenzeka. Ibala lalivuliwe. Kodwa isibhakabhaka sadilika zaza iingcango zeYiputa zavalwa kabuhlungu.
Okucacileyo kukuba amagunya amiselweyo - umkhosi kunye neentsalela (feloul) kulawulo oludala lukaMubarak - ababonisi nje ukubuya; baqinisekisa ngobundlobongela into yokuba bona zange wemka ngokwenene. Eyona nto intsha eyoyikisayo, mhlawumbi, kukuba inqanaba lenkxaso ethandwayo yomkhosi ngoku libonakala likhulu kunangaphambili. Kufana nenguqu ka-2011 ibuyela umva: ebonakalisa ukuzithemba kwakhe ngokuzikhukhumalisa, u-al-Sisi usasaza izikhundla zolawulo kwabanye ooNjengele; i-Ofisi yoMphathiswa wezangaphakathi ibuyisela ulawulo lwayo ezitalatweni; imikhosi yezokhuseleko ibulala abantu ngokungohlwaywa; imo yonxunguphalo iphinde yabhengezwa; U-Mubarak ukhululwe entolongweni; kunye neTahrir Square - ikhaya lokomoya le-revolution yehlabathi ye-2011 - iye yancitshiswa yaba ngumboniso we-jingoism ye-pro-military ephakamisa iflegi.
Konakele phi? Kwenzeka njani ukuba ngequbuliso iimeko zibe mbi ngolo hlobo? Ngubani obekek’ ityala? Kwaye yintoni eza kwenziwa? Ngelishwa le mibuzo inzima ayiphendulwa kumajelo eendaba, kwaye njengokuba kunjalo, umgca wohlalutyo uhlala uvelisa ingxelo efanayo yokubini elula ekhuthazwa ngumkhosi kunye ne-Muslim Brotherhood ngokwabo. Ngandlela-thile, kuye kwaba nzima ukugxininisa kwi-nuance kunye nokucamngca: gxeka i-Muslim Brotherhood ngokungcatsha kwayo i-revolution kwaye utyholwa ngokuxhasa "ukubhukuqa komkhosi"; ugxeke umkhosi ngokubulala ngenkohlakalo amakhulu abantu kwaye utyholwa ngokuxhasa "abanqolobi". Yintoni esinokuyenza?
Ukuthembisa ukunyaniseka kuMnyhadala woTshintsho
Ngokucacileyo kufuneka siqale ngokuthembisa ukuthembeka kwethu okungagungqiyo kumsitho wenguqu ka-2011; isiganeko esashukumisa amanzi azolileyo entelekelelo ehlangeneyo, sabhukuqa uloyiko lwabantu, saphakamisa ukuzithoba kwabo kwigunya, saphefumlela ihlabathi, savula ibala lokuba nokwenzeka kweminqweno yenkululeko egqibeleleyo yesihlwele ukuba ingene iphuphuma. , oku kuthetha ukuhlala unyanisekile kungekuphela nje kwiimfuno zoguquko “zesonka, inkululeko kunye nobulungisa bentlalo”, okanye injongo yayo yokugqibela yokuzisa “ukuwa kwenkqubo”, kodwa nakwimo yayo esisiseko yombutho njengobuninzi obungenankokeli bemibutho yasekuhlaleni. engamelanga igunya likarhulumente kodwa isidima somntu nokuzimisela okunentsingiselo. Ingxelo elolo hlobo yokuthembeka kweso siganeko isenokubonakala icacile kwabanye kwaye ingenantsingiselo kwabanye, kodwa ukungxamiseka kwayo kubonakala ngokukhawuleza xa siyithelekisa nethuba elize lamaqela alwayo.
Kwingxelo yokubini evuselela intetho esemthethweni nge-Egypt, ukuba semthethweni kuhlala kuphuma kwingcinga engaphaya kolongamo. Kwabachasi bobhukuqo-mbuso lomkhosi, ukuba semthethweni kukarhulumente kaMorsi kwakuhlala kwileta yomthetho kunye nenyaniso yokuba wonyulwa ngokukhululekileyo ngaphakathi kwesakhelo somgaqo-siseko omtsha wedemokhrasi. Kubaxhasi bokuthathwa komkhosi, ukuba semthethweni korhulumente wasemkhosini ka-al-Sisi kuhlala kwinto yokuba "ibuyisela idemokhrasi" - njengoko uJohn Kerry ngelishwa. Yibeke - ngokugxotha amandla ezopolitiko "ezingabandakanywanga ngokwaneleyo" kwaye, kuhlalutyo lokugqibela, ngokusisiseko olungenademokhrasi. Okumangalisayo kukuba, omabini la macala abeka ibango kumthombo wokuba semthethweni obonakala ngathi ubekwe ngaphandle: ngengcamango yangaphakathi ephikisanayo yenkululeko yobukumkani base-US. Akumangalisi ke ngoko, ukuba omabini la macala ngoku athi “angcatshiwe” lulawulo luka-Obama, olwaqala lwasebenzisa inkululeko yalo yohanahaniso ukuthethelela ulawulo lukaMubarak, lwaze lwalusebenzisa ukuthethelela ulawulo lukaMorsi, kwaye ngoku lusebenzisa ukuthethelela ulawulo lomkhosi, luqhubekeka. ukuyixhasa ukuya kutsho kwi-1.3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kuncedo lwasemkhosini ngonyaka. Nokuba kwenzeka ntoni na, uMalume uSam usoloko exhasa abalawuli baseYiputa; soze nabalawulwa.
Kule ngcinga igqithileyo yolongamo kunye noluhanahaniso lwenkululeko yohanahaniso yokuba semthethweni komgaqo-siseko kufuneka sichase ngokungxamisekileyo ukwenzeka kwenguquko ngokwayo. Imvukelo eyawisa uMubarak yaba ngokuzenzekelayo ngeyona ntsingiselo yeli gama: hayi ngengqiqo yokuba yabetha isibhakabhaka, kodwa ngengqiqo yokuba idelele naluphi na uhlobo lobunkokeli obuphakathi okanye ukumelwa. Uvukelo lwalusemthethweni kungekhona ngenxa yokuba lwalubhenela kwingcamango ethile engaphaya kwengqondo yolongamo, kodwa ngokuchanekileyo. ngokuba yazenza ngokusemthethweni. Ngaphezu koko, umnqweno wesidima, inkululeko kunye nobulungisa bentlalontle ebonakaliswe kwimvukelo ayizange ivumele ukuba incitshiswe kwimfuno elula yokhetho olukhululekile nolunobulungisa. Injongo ibikukuwisa kungekuphela nje uMubarak kodwa yonke inkqubo yolawulo lweniyoliberal ngoozwilakhe. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo, akukho gunya limiselwe ngaphambili - ingengoBuzalwane okanye umkhosi - onokubanga ngokusemthethweni ukumela umzabalazo onjalo wokuchasa igunya. Akukho nkokeli inokuthi ithethe egameni lemvukelo engenankokeli. Uvukelo-mbuso lunokuze luzithethelele, kwaye namhlanje lusaqhubeka nokuthetha nathi njenge-echo evakalayo yomsitho.
Umbono kaTahrir weNkululeko iyonke
Yiyo loo nto kufuneka sithathe inyathelo eliqinileyo ngokuchasene nabo bathi-mhlawumbi ngokuqondakalayo kodwa nangona kunjalo ngempazamo-babanga ukuba "ukoyiswa" kwerevolution ezandleni zomkhosi sisiphumo esithe ngqo sokusilela (okanye ukwala) kwabavukeli. ubunkokeli obusebenzayo, baququzelele umbutho, okanye baqulunqe inkqubo yezopolitiko yepragmatic — ngamanye amazwi, “ukucekisa iipolitiki eziphakamileyo” zabavukeli kunye nokunyanzeliswa kwabo kukuzimela geqe kumaqela, urhulumente kunye namaqela. Kwiqhekeza elijongelwa phantsi Ukubuyiselwa kweencwadi zeLondon, ngokomzekelo, uAdam Shatz thelekisa uguqulo oluya “kwiminyaka yee-1960, indibano yemikhosi eyahlukeneyo, edla ngokuxabana eyabelana ngeqonga kuphela emva kokubhukuqwa kukaMubarak.” KuShatz, “abavukeli baseYiputa baphazama ngokukholelwa kwabo kwimvukelo ngenxa yobukho bemvukelo.”
Indlela ekukuphela kwayo yokuchasa oko kugxeka okuchasene nomthetho kunye nokunqanda izihendo zayo zokungathembeki iya kuba kukuchasana ngokukhawuleza neenjongo zokungabi nathemba kwimeko yangoku ukuzibophelela kwethu okuqinileyo “kwiNyaniso” yeTahrir. Njengoko u-Alain Badiou enzile ikhonjwe ngaphandle, Imvukelo ye-25 kaJanuwari mhlawumbi yayiyenye yezona ziganeko zenguqu ezihlambulukileyo ukususela kwi-Commune yaseParis, ngokuchanekileyo ngenxa yokuba yakhaba ubunkokeli ngokuthanda "ubukomanisi bentshukumo", apho ubukomanisi bubhekiseli kungekhona kumxholo we-ideological okanye weprogram kodwa kubume bentlangano yombutho wokulingana okungenamiqathango. Kwakungekho qela lokuhlanganisela inkitha yabantu eTahrir, akukho nkokheli yayiyalela ukuba ihlasele ibhotwe likaMongameli, kungekho nkokheli izakuthomalalisa iimfuno zayo okanye iqhawule isivumelwano nabaphetheyo. Ngokuqinisekileyo kukho abo bazanelisa ngokugxothwa kuka-Mubarak kunye neziko lonyulo olubizwa ngokuba "lukhululekile nolunobulungisa", kodwa eyona nto iphambili imfuno yoguquko yokuwa kwenkqubo yayingenasiphelo kwindalo. ETahrir, umntu wayesenokuqalisa ukubona iicontours zohlobo oluthile idemokhrasi epheleleyo; i-echo evela kwixesha elizayo - umbono wenkululeko epheleleyo.
Yiyo loo nto uShatz ethandabuza malunga nobukho bohlaziyo ephosa inqaku ngokupheleleyo. Nokuba amasebe olawulo aya kudilizwa na okanye hayi, ngumbuzo wenguquko. siphumo, kungekhona ubukho bayo. Okubalulekileyo ngoku kukuba "indawo enokwenzeka" yezopolitiko yavulwa apho inkitha yamaJiphutha azibophelele kwinkqubo yenkululeko egqibeleleyo. U-Omar Hamilton ke ulungile ukuba dubula umva ukuba “ubukho benguqu abumele bubhidaniswe nobukho benkokeli yezobupolitika.” Ukunyaniseka kumsitho kunye nomoya wovukelo ongenazinkokheli kuthetha ukuqonda ukuba amandla ayo aqinileyo ahlalanga ekukhupheleni uhlobo lombutho ongasekhoyo wedemokhrasi yenkululeko yaseNtshona, kodwa ekubhukuqeni oku kukholosa ngokumelwa ngokuthanda ukuzibophelela kwexesha elide ipolitiki yokuchasa; ipolitiki ejolise ekukhuseleni ngamandla intsimi enokwenzeka kwiintshukumo zengcinezelo karhulumente. Kumazwi kaHamilton: “Uvukelo lufile xa sisithi lufile. I-revolution ifile xa singasayi kuphinda siyifele.”
Ingaba ngabantu baseBhayi abaleqa amapolisa ezitalatweni kwaye ukubhengeza ukuzimela kwabo eYiputa, abasebenzi bentsimbi baseSuez okanye abasebenzi bempahla yaseMahalla baya kugwayimbo lwasendle ukuze banyanzelise abaqeshi babo kwiimvumelwano ezinkulu, okanye abazimeleyo. Mosireen ngokudibeneyo Ukuqhubeka nokunikela ingxelo ngoguquko oluvela kwindawo yabo yokuzimela kumbindi wedolophu yaseCairo, ipolitiki yokuchasa ngokusisiseko ijikeleza ekuqondeni ukuba iimfuno zohlaziyo ngokulula. akakwazi kuhlangatyezwana nayo kwindawo emxinwa yepalamente enikezelwe bubukumkani base-US, ikomkhulu lehlabathi kunye nomkhosi, kwaye ke kufuneka iqale ukusuka "kumgama ophakathi ngaphakathi nanxamnye norhulumente." Njengoko Badiou ubeka, lixesha lokuba kuthatyathelw’ indawo intetho kaMao yokuphelelwa lithemba ebudeni beMvukelo Yenkcubeko “yokubandakanyeka kwimicimbi yelizwe!” ngesaci esitsha sokuzimela geqe: “Uthatha isigqibo malunga nento ekufuneka yenziwe ngurhulumente kwaye ufumane iindlela zokumnyanzela ukuba enze, ngeli lixa uhlala ugcina umgama wakho kurhulumente kwaye ngaphandle kokungenisa izigwebo zakho kwigunya lakhe, okanye ukuphendula isamani yakhe, ngakumbi. zonyulo.”
Ukuthembela kuMandla akhoyo eSininzi
Ukwenza isibhambathiso sokuthembeka kumsitho kunye nombono kaTahrir wokulingana okungenamiqathango kunye nedemokhrasi epheleleyo kude nesenzo sothando. Emazantsi elitye, kukuqondwa kwendalo yokuba i-revolution yinkcazo yayo a inkqubo; ukuba ibala lokunokwenzeka elivulwe ngumsitho kufuneka lihlale likhuselwe kwimikhosi echasene ne-revolutionary ezama ngokuqhubekayo ukuvala eso sithuba kwaye iqulathe amandla abukhali abonisayo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuzibophelela kulo msitho kubandakanya ukuqonda ukuba umzabalazo wenkululeko, isidima kunye nobulungisa bentlalo awusayi kuba nasiphelo okanye awusayi kuba njalo. Njengoko i-Subcomandante Marcos ye-Zapatista Army of Liberation yeSizwe ibeka, kwaye njengoko ndinzile zicaciswe kwenye indawo ngokweenkcukacha, "umzabalazo ufana nesangqa: ungaqala naphi na kodwa awupheli."
Ukuzibophelela kumzabalazo onjalo ongapheliyo-okanye oko uSimon Critchley abize ngako "imfuno engapheliyo" - kufuna ukutsiba okukhulu kokholo. Oku akunako ukuba lukholo oluqinileyo kumntu othile wenkolo ogqwesileyo okanye uMphathi wezopolitiko, okanye ukholo olungenangqondo kumntu omeleyo oya kuthi ngandlel' ithile aqhubele phambili ekufezekiseni iinjongo zohlaziyo egameni lomntu wonke. Endaweni yoko, kufuneka ibe lukholo oluzijongayo kumandla akhoyo kunye nokubanakho kwenguquko kwesihlwele. "I-paradigm yamandla abambeleyo," ubhala uToni Negri kwincwadi yakhe Imvukelo, “ngamandla agqabhuka aqhekeke, aqhawuke, aphazamise, athintele nakuphi na ulungelelwaniso olukhoyo ngaphambili kunye nakuphi na ukuqhubeka okunokwenzeka.” Ngaloo ndlela, "amandla asisiseko abotshelelwa kwimbono yedemokhrasi njengamandla apheleleyo." Kwintshayelelo yakhe kule ncwadi inye, uMichael Hardt uchaza impixano engenakusombululeka evela kwiingxabano ezisisiseko phakathi kobuchule bokudala kunye nobumbano besihlwele kunye namandla amiselweyo okanye “amisiweyo” emigaqo-siseko esesikweni kunye negunya eliphakathi:
Ngelixa amandla abambeleyo evula inkqubo nganye yohlaziyo, evula iingcango ezivulelekileyo kumandla otshintsho kunye nentaphane yeminqweno yesihlwele, amandla aqulunqiweyo avala inguqu kwaye ayibuyisele kucwangco. Kuhlaselo ngalunye lwale mihla, uRhulumente uye wachasa imikhosi yedemokhrasi neye revolution waza wanyanzelela ukubuyisela kucwangco olumiselweyo, iThermidor entsha, eyathi yaphinda yachasa okanye yacinezela iimpembelelo ezazikho. Impixano phakathi kwegunya elisebenzayo kunye namandla akhoyo akhoyo yiyo ebonakalisa la mava enguqu. Emva kokoyiswa kwenguqu nganye, iminqweno esisiseko yanyamalala kodwa ayizange ife. Bagrumba phantsi komhlaba belinde ixesha elitsha kunye nendawo entsha yokuhluma kwakhona kwinguquko.
I-Thermidor ye-Counter-Revolutionary yaseYiputa
Nje ukuba silandele oku kuqonda uguquko njengenkqubo yembali apho amandla akhoyo esihlwele angquzulana negunya elimiselweyo likarhulumente, kufuneka kwakhona silugxeke kabukhali olo hlahlelo-njengoko kutsha nje. Ingxelo yeReuters - ibango lokuba iJiphutha "izingela kwisiphithiphithi". Ayikho enye into eyogqitha inyaniso. Ekuphela kovavanyo olukhulu lwase-Egypt malunga nesiphithiphithi- ngentsingiselo yesiGrike njengokuthi "ukungabikho kwabalawuli" -yayinoxolo, idemokhrasi kwaye inokulingana kunobundlobongela obundlongondlongo bamapolisa aphinda abuya. Ngexesha loqhankqalazo luka-2011, iTahrir Square yaziguqula ngokufanelekileyo yaba yile nto icinga nge-anarchist u-Hakim Bey wayeyibiza ngokuba yi-anarchist. "indawo yokuzimela yethutyana"; isithuba esinesiphithiphithi sombutho ozilungelelanisiweyo obonise intsholongwane yesakhono esinamandla ukuze sibonwe lihlabathi lonke. Ubundlobongela obuchasene ne-revolution obuvezwa ngurhulumente ogunyazisiweyo, ngokuchaseneyo, ngokuchaseneyo ne-anarchic solidarity ye-Tahrir kunye nedemokhrasi epheleleyo yesihlwele.
Enyanisweni, isiphithiphithi esibonakalayo kunye nobundlobongela bamahlelo kwiveki ephelileyo kukuchasa okoyikwa kakhulu "ukuhla kwisiphithiphithi". Impalalo-gazi emacala omabini iye yacwangciswa ngononophelo zizixhobo zokhuseleko ezicinezelayo ukuvala ibala lesiphithiphithi esinokwenzeka esivulwe luhlaziyo. Ngale ndlela, nokuba ukuhlanganisana kwabantu abaninzi kwe-30 kaJuni kubhekiselele ekuhlaziyweni kwempembelelo yesihlwele, ukubhukuqwa kukaMorsi nge-3 kaJulayi kwaphawula ukuqala komkhosi. Ukusabela kweThermidorian: isenzo sobundlobongela sokuvalwa. Urhulumente ka-Al-Sisi ngoku ubonakala ezimisele ukuxhokonxa umjikelo okhohlakeleyo wobundlobongela obuvela kumaSilamsi ngokuchanekileyo ukuze aqinisekise ulawulo lwakhe olupheleleyo. Ngelizwi nje, umkhosi ugrogrisa iBrotherhood ukuba ukudala abanqolobi elibanga ukuba bayabacinezela, ukuba nje beyisela bonke abantu ukuba iqhubeke isizathu sokuba njengesikhuselo nxamnye nobufundamentali bonqulo. Ngokutshintsha ngabom isizukulwana samaSilamsi, urhulumente onegunya udala imiqathango yokusinda kwawo.
Kodwa ngelixa ukuqhekeka okunegazi kwi-Muslim Brotherhood kuye kwaba yi-pivot yeqhinga lika-al-Sisi lokuphikisa uguquko, injongo yakhe yokwenyani kukutyumza isihlwele sibe ziingceba ngokwenza abameli abasemthethweni bamaqela awo ahlukeneyo (amaSilamsi, amaSalafi, ama-liberals, amaKristu) batshabalalisa omnye nomnye - kunye nabo ngokwabo - kukhuphiswano lwabo lwe-myopic kumandla karhulumente. Kungokubambisana iinkokeli zamaqela ahlukeneyo kwaye zijongise omnye komnye apho umkhosi ukwazile ukugcina ulawulo lwawo kurhulumente. Logama nje iiNjengele zibambe izitshixo kurhulumente, nokuba ngokuphandle okanye ngokungafihliyo, zonke iinkokeli zeqela ezinomdla wokuthatha ulawulo kuya kufuneka zincamise iinyawo kwaye ziqinisekise ukusinda kwamalungelo azo kwezoqoqosho nezopolitiko. Kwimeko enjalo, ukuthatha inxaxheba kunyulo kunye nokulwela igunya likarhulumente akusayi kuthetha nje ukungcatshwa okuqinisekileyo kweemfuno zohlaziyo. ukuwa kwenkqubo, kodwa iya kuba yeyona ndlela iqinisekileyo yabavukeli yomzabalazo wokuzitshabalalisa kwezopolitiko.
Ukubona okwenzekayo kwiintshukumo ezidumileyo xa sele beqala ukunqwenela amandla aseburhulumenteni, ungakhangeli ngaphaya koBuzalwane bamaMuslim. Njengoko i-SCAF iququzelela unyulo ngokuthandabuza, ubunkokeli be-MB obunombono omfutshane kunye nobunamandla be-MB buzivumele ukuba buhendwe kwisivumelwano sikaFaustian nomkhosi. Kwisithuba esingangonyaka, yayiminxekile ngamabhongo ayo. Njenge ENew York Times umbiko, “abasebenzi abangoontamo-lukhuni benkonzo yasemkhosini neyezobuntlola ababesoloko becekisa uBuzalwana bamaSilamsi babona ukuba ilinge lelo qela lokulawula lalinokulishiya lisengozini ngakumbi kunanini na kumashumi asibhozo eminyaka yalo liphantsi komhlaba.” Oku kumomelezile u-al-Sisi kwisigqibo sakhe sokukhwela iliza lokunganeliseki okudumileyo kunye nokususa uMorsi emandleni, evulela urhulumente kwiqela eliphikisayo kwaye elukuhla abantu abanobuhanahanisi benkululeko banaphakade ukuba bangcatshe iingqondo zabo zedemokhrasi ezizenzileyo ngokutsibela kanye kwiingalo zeNjengele. . Umkhosi ngokufanayo uye wakhetha ubunkokeli obuncinci beTamarod obuqale wacela ukuhlanganiswa kwabantu abaninzi nge-30 kaJuni, kwaye kwixa elizayo ngokungathandabuzekiyo uya kuzama ukwenza okufanayo kuye nabani na onqwenela ukumela ngelize impembelelo yesihlwele.
Ngaba Icala Elingenamipu Linokuze Liphumelele?
Isiphelo sicacile: ngumzabalazo ongapheliyo kuphela nongenankokeli obonisa umoya wedemokhrasi epheleleyo kunye nokuthembeka okungagungqiyo kumsitho wenguqu ka-2011 onokuchasana nala magunya oyikekayo omanyano lomkhosi. Kuphela zimbuku ezinatyisiweyo kunye namandla akhoyo esihlwele anokusinda kuqhawuko olungayekiyo ezandleni zorhulumente wolawulo oluphezulu. Ngenxa yesi sizathu kufuneka sichase ngamandla abaprofeti bobuxoki baseMelika kunye neYurophu ekhohlo abaqhubeka bekhuthaza abavukeli baseYiputa ukuba ngandlela-thile baphuhlise ubunkokeli obusesikweni kwaye bazilungiselele kwiqela ukuze bakwazi ukumela unyulo kwaye baqale uhambo lwabo olude ngokusebenzisa amaziko angaphakathi. ukuyalela ukutyhalela ngasemva umkhosi kunye nokudala imiqathango yangaphambili yedemokhrasi ekhululekileyo esebenzayo. Ezo zibongozo zineenjongo ezintle zohlaziyo zisenokuqondakala, kodwa ekugqibeleni zibe lilize ekusebenzeni.
Namhlanje, kunanini na ngaphambili, kucacile ukuba kuphela amandla ezitrato anokubetha umkhosi (okanye nayiphi na enye indlela yegunya elingekho mthethweni elijolise ekusebenziseni ulawulo lwalo phezu kwabantu baseYiputa). Kuphela ngamaqhinga engxokozelo yenginginya yothungelwano anethuba lokuqhawula amatyathanga omyalelo olawulo olugcina iiNjengele eluntwini. Njengoko uHardt noNegri bayibeka Ubuninzi, "Kwigunya eliphakathi, ukuzama ukutyhalela emva uthungelwano kufana nokuzama ukuphelisa izandyondyo zemvula ngentonga." Kakade ke, oku akuthethi ukuba abavukeli baya koyisa. Ukumelana ngempumelelo nentsebenziswano kunye nengcinezelo yinto enye; ukufumana uloyiso yinto eyahlukileyo ngokupheleleyo. Umntu unokusinda kwindyikityha yokufa kwaye ahlale enyulu ngokugqithisileyo kumabhongo akhe enguquko aze oyiswe ngokupheleleyo lutshaba olunamandla ngakumbi.
Kwaye ke, njengoOmar Hamilton isikhumbuza, abavukeli ngoku kufuneka bajongane nombuzo owoyikisayo: ngaba icala elingenamipu lingaphumelela? Kweli nqanaba, ngokuqinisekileyo ayibonakali ngathi: ukuya kuthi ga ngokubona iliso, i-al-Sisi ye-counter-revolutionary progression ibonakala ingenakunqandwa. Kodwa nangona kufuneka siqaphele amandla omlilo axhomis’ amehlo omkhosi namapolisa, kunye nenkxaso exhaphakileyo ababonakala beyiyalela kuluntu ngokubanzi, kubalulekile ukuba singalubaxi kakhulu uzinzo lolawulo lwangoku. Kwiminyaka emibini enesiqingatha edlulileyo, umyalelo wezempi uye wanyanzeliswa-ngokuvuselela i-revolutionary yesihlwele yedwa-ukuziqhubela kwezona zikhundla zingenakwenzeka: ukusuka ekunikeleni enye yazo (uMubarak) ukuphazamisa indlela eya kumgaqo othe ngqo (phantsi kwe-SCAF); nasekungeneni kumtshato wobuxhakaxhaka kunye nentshaba zabo zangaphambili (uMorsi) ukuya ekungeneleleni ngokuphandle okuchasene nomgaqo-siseko kwisithuba nje sonyaka omnye emva kokongamela unyulo lokuqala lwelizwe “olukhululekileyo nolungenamkhethe” kunye nokuyilwa komgaqo-siseko walo wokuqala “wedemokhrasi”.
Eyona nto iphambili kukuba umkhosi awuzange ukhethe nayiphi na kwezi. Ukusukela ngo-2011 iye - ngandlela thile okanye enye - ibiqhuba ngokuqhubekayo. Ngokuqinisekileyo, iye yasabela kwimvukelo yoguqulo lwenginginya ngokuxubana ngobuqhetseba bamazwi axhasa uguqulo-guqulo kunye nengcinezelo yokuchasana noguquko, kodwa ukusinda kolawulo lwayo akunakuqinisekiswa nangayiphi na indlela. Ukuba iziganeko zeminyaka emibini enesiqingatha edlulileyo zisifundise nantoni na, kukuba imimoya yenguqu inokujika ngokukhawuleza kwimeko yengxaki eqhubekayo, ngakumbi xa abalinganiswa abatsha bezentlalo bezimisele ukubeka ubomi babo kumgca. ukukhusela inguqu yabo. Ngaphaya koko, ngaphandle kokufumana iibhiliyoni zeedola kuncedo olusemthethweni oluvela eSaudi Arabia kunye ne-Emirates, uqoqosho lwase-Egypt luhleli lubanjwe yingxaki yamatyala etshabalalisayo kunye noovimba bemali abaphelayo. Ukuba iiNjengele ziyasilela ukubuyisela ukuzola kwiimarike nasezitratweni, inkqubela phambili ekhawulezileyo ye-counter-revolution isenokubuyela kubo ngempindezelo yenguqu.
Emva koko, njengoko abahlobo bethu baseYiputa beqhubeka besikhumbuza namhlanje, nangona umzabalazo uphoqeleke ngobudlova ngaphandle kwezitrato; nokuba umkhosi uye wabadibanisa ngempumelelo abo bathi bamele iNyaniso yeTahrir; nokuba namaqela ngamaqela esihlwele avukelana, ukuba anelise ukukhanuka igunya; nokuba intsimi enokwenzeka izivalele ngokwayo kwaye iingcango eziya kwenye iJiphutha zibethelwa kabuhlungu ngu-al-Sisi kunye nabalandeli bakhe - uguquko luya kuqhubeka luphila lo gama kukho abaguquleli abazimisele ukuyifela.
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Nikela