Embindini weyona ngxaki imbi yezoqoqosho ukusukela kuDado oluKhulu, kuvela ulungelelwaniso olutsha lwehlabathi - neziko lalo litsalela eTshayina. Amanani athetha ngokwawo. I-International Monetary Fund (IMF) iqikelela ukuba i-gross domestic product (GDP) iya kucutheka nge-1.3% eyothusayo kulo nyaka. Nangona kunjalo, ngokuchasa le ndlela yehlabathi, i-China ilindele izinga lokukhula koqoqosho ngonyaka nge-6.5% ukuya kwi-8.5%. Ngexesha lekota yokuqala ka-2009, iimarike eziphambili zehlabathi zidibene ziwe nge-4.5%. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, i-stock exchange index yaseShanghai itsibe nge-38%. Ngo-Matshi, ukuthengiswa kweemoto e-China kwabetha irekhodi ye-1.1 yezigidi, idlula i-US kwinyanga yesithathu ngokulandelelana.
"Ngaphandle kwefuthe elibi kuqoqosho lwase-China," utshilo uMongameli waseTshayina u-Hu Jintao, "ingxaki yezemali ekhoyo idala ithuba kweli lizwe." Kungaxoxwa ukuba itsunami ekhoyo ngoku yezemali, eneneni, inike i-China ithuba lokulahla isikhokelo sohlaziyo oluphambili. "Fihla amandla akho kwaye uhlawule ixesha lakho" yayiyindlela owayesakuba yintloko yeQela lamaKomanisi uDeng Xiaoping awakhe wayibeka ngayo. Akusenjalo.
Ukuqaphela ukuba ixesha layo lifikile ngokwenene, iBeijing ithathe isigqibo sokudlala indima esebenzayo, yokungenelela kwinqanaba lezemali lamazwe ngamazwe. Bexhaswa yi-2 yeetriliyoni zeedola zaseTshayina koovimba botshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, oosomashishini bayo baye benza umgudu wokuthenga ehlabathini lonke eAfrika naseLatin America, nakwilizwe elingummelwane iRashiya neKazakhstan, ukuze bavale amandla ombane kwixesha elizayo kuqoqosho lwayo oludlamkileyo. Ekhaya, urhulumente utyala imali eninzi kungekuphela nje kwiziseko ezingundoqo, kodwa nakwinetha yakhe yokhuseleko loluntu engahoywanga, inkqubo yakhe yokhathalelo lwempilo, kunye neeprojekthi zophuhliso lwasemaphandleni ezingajongwanga ixesha elide - ngokuyinxenye ukuvala umsantsa owandayo phakathi kwemigangatho yokuphila ezilalini nasezidolophini.
Phakathi kwabo bachukumisekileyo yimigama esele yenziwe yiBeijing ukusukela oko yazisa iphakheji yokuvuselela iidola ezingama-585 eebhiliyoni ngoSeptemba lulawulo luka-Obama. Ijonga ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kweGDP yaseTshayina njengolungiso olusebenzayo kwikhontrakthi ye-GDP phantse kulo lonke olunye uqoqosho olukhulu emhlabeni, ngaphandle kowaseIndiya. Ngoko uyekile ukuxoxa ukuba, ngokuyixabisa imali yayo - i-yuan - ngokubhekiselele kwi-dollar yase-US, i-China yenza iimveliso zayo zingabizi kakhulu, ngaloo ndlela ibeka iimpahla zaseMelika ezikhuphisanayo kwindawo engafanelekanga kwiimarike zangaphandle.
Imfihlelo yeMpumelelo yaseTshayina
Iyintoni imfihlelo yempumelelo eqhubekayo yeTshayina ngamaxesha amabi kakhulu? Njengesiqalo, inkqubo yayo yebhanki - elawulwa ngurhulumente kwaye igungxulwe yimali - iye yavula i-spigots yayo yokuboleka ngokupheleleyo, ngelixa i-credit yebhanki e-US kunye ne-European Union (EU) isahleli ivaliwe, ukuba ayikrwitshwanga. Ke ngoko, inkcitho yabathengi kunye notyalo-mali lwenkunzi lunyuke kakhulu.
Ukusukela oko i-China yaqala ukukhululwa kwezoqoqosho phantsi kobunkokeli bukaDeng Xiaoping ngo-1978, iye yafumana ukunyuka nokuhla kwezoqoqosho, kubandakanywa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, ukuhla kwamandla emali, ukuhla koqoqosho, uphuhliso olungalinganiyo lwemimandla yayo, kunye nomsantsa owandayo phakathi kwezityebi kunye namahlwempu, njengoko. kunye naphakathi kwedolophu kunye namaphandle - zonke iimpawu ezinxulumene ne-capitalism.
Ngelixa iinkokeli zamaKomanisi zaseTshayina ziphendule ngoluhlu oluqhelekileyo lwezixhobo zezimali nezemali ezifana nokulungelelanisa amazinga enzala kunye nonikezelo lwemali, baye bazuza iziphumo ezinqwenelekayo ngokukhawuleza kunoongxowankulu babo. Oku kuqala kungenxa yenkqubo yebhanki elawulwa ngurhulumente apho, umzekelo, iibhanki eziphantsi kukarhulumente zisebenza njengendawo yokugcina imali enyanzelekileyo kubo bonke abasebenzi.
Ukongeza, "isibini esinye, umntwana omnye", umthetho, owamiselwa ngo-1980 ukulawula abantu baseTshayina abaqhumayo, kunye nokwehla ngokukhawuleza kwinethiwekhi yenkxaso yoluntu kubasebenzi kumashishini karhulumente, kwanyanzela abazali ukuba basindise. Ukongeza koku ukuwa kwangaphambili kwenkqubo ye-inshorensi yezempilo yentsebenziswano yasemaphandleni eqhutywa ngamaqumrhu ezolimo kunye neekominisi - kwaye abazali abaninzi baseTshayina bashiywe bengenasiqinisekiso sokunyamekela kwiminyaka yabo eyanciphayo. Oku kwaba yinkuthazo eyongezelelekileyo yokubekela bucala imali. Ukongiwa kweziphumo okubangele ukuba kuzalise ingxowa-mali yeebhanki ezilawulwa ngurhulumente.
Ngaphezu koko kwabakho ukwamkelwa kweTshayina kuMbutho woRhwebo weHlabathi (i-WTO) ngo-2001, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekutsibeni okumangalisayo kokuthunyelwa kwayo kumazwe angaphandle. Ukwanda koqoqosho okuli-12% ngonyaka kube yinto eqhelekileyo.
Xa ukwehla kwetyala kuMntla Merika kunye ne-EU kubangele ukwehla okunamandla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla ngaphandle kweTshayina, ukukhupha izigidi zabasebenzi abafudukayo kwizixeko ezigudileyo eziselunxwemeni ngaphandle komsebenzi, abasemagunyeni eBeijing bagxile ekulawuleni izinga lokungaqeshwa kunye nokugcina imivuzo yabaqeshwayo. Ngoku banokubanga umlinganiselo wentswela-ngqesho ezidolophini umyinge we-4.2% nje kuphela ngenxa yokuba uninzi lwabasebenzi basefektri ababedekiwe babuyela ezilalini zabo. Abo bangazange baphumelele bakhuthazwa ukuba babhalise kwiinkqubo zokuqeqesha ngokutsha ezixhaswa ngurhulumente ukuze bafumane izakhono eziphakamileyo zemisebenzi engcono kwixesha elizayo.
Ngelixa uninzi lweenkokeli zaseNtshona zingenakwenza nto ngaphandle kokugxeka abagcini bebhanki ngokuzalisa iipokotho zabo ngeebhonasi njengoko amaphepha ebhalansi eenkampani zabo ebomvu ngokubomvu, urhulumente waseTshayina wanyanzela abaphathi abaphezulu kwiinkampani ezinkulu zikarhulumente ukuba banciphise imivuzo yabo nge-15% ukuya kwi-40% ngaphambili. ukucinga ngomvuzo wabasebenzi babo.
Ukuqinisekisa ukwanda okukhawulezayo okuqhubekayo koqoqosho lwaseTshayina, oluhambelana ngokuthe ngqo kwinqanaba lelizwe lokusetyenziswa kwamandla, iinkokeli zayo zifaka izivumelwano ezininzi zokunikezelwa kweoli kunye negesi yendalo kunye namaqumrhu angaphandle.
Ukhuseleko lwaMandla
Nje ukuba iTshayina ibe ngumthengisi we-oyile kumazwe angaphandle ngo-1993, yabonakala imbi kakhulu. Ukuthengwa kwayo kumazwe angaphandle kwaphinda kabini emva kweminyaka emithathu. Oku kwenza ukuba kube sesichengeni kuguquko lwemalike ye-oyile yamazwe ngamazwe kwaye kukhokelele urhulumente ukuba azinzise ukhuseleko lwamandla kumgaqo-nkqubo wakhe wezangaphandle. Igqibe ekubeni ithathe inxaxheba ekukhangeleni i-hydrocarbon kunye neeprojekthi zemveliso yamandla kumazwe angaphandle kunye nolwakhiwo lwemibhobho yamazwe ngamazwe. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ukwahlukahlukana kwemithombo yangaphandle ye-oyile negesi yaseTshayina (kunye nokuthuthwa kwayo) ibe ngumgaqo-siseko oyintloko wenkonzo yangaphandle.
Ikuqonda ukuguquguquka koMbindi Mpuma, owona mthombo uphambili wokuthunyelwa kweoli kumazwe angaphandle, iTshayina iye yahlola iAfrika, iOstreliya, neLatin America ukuze ifumane idiphozithi yepetroleum negesi yendalo, kunye nezinye izimbiwa ezifunekayo kushishino nolwakhiwo. EAfrika, igxile eAngola, eCongo, eNigeria naseSudan. Ngowama-2004, ukuthengwa kweoli yaseTshayina kwezi zizwe kwakukwisithathu kwisihlanu sobukhulu bezo zisuka kummandla wePersian Gulf.
Kufuphi nekhaya, i-China yaqala ukuvala izivumelwano zamandla kunye neRussia kunye neriphabliki yoMbindi weAsia yaseKazakhstan kwakudala ngaphambi kokuwa kwamaxabiso eoli kunye nokuwa kwetyala lehlabathi jikelele. Ngoku, ngenxa yoxinzelelo oluphindiweyo lwamaxabiso aphantsi amandla kunye nokucudiswa kwetyala, inkampani ye-oyile ehamba phambili yaseRussia kunye nomsebenzi wemibhobho mva nje bavumile ukubonelela ngemiphanda engama-300,000 ngosuku (bpd) kwi-oyile eyongezelelweyo ukuya eTshayina ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-25 kwimali-mboleko ye-25 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. -elawulwa China Development Bank. Ngokunjalo, i-subsidiary ye-China National Petroleum Corp yavuma ukuboleka i-Kazakhstan i-10 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi njengenxalenye yelinge elihlangeneyo lokuphuhlisa oovimba bayo be-hydrocarbon.
Ngokufanayo, iBeijing iqhubekile nokungena kwimimandla yeoli kunye negesi yaseMzantsi Melika. Njengoko ubudlelwane phakathi kukaHugo Chavez waseVenezuela kunye nolawulo lukaBush lwalusiba mandundu, ubudlelwane ne China bebuqina. Ngo-2006, kutyelelo lwakhe lwesine eBeijing ukusukela oko waba ngumongameli ngo-1999, uChavez watyhila ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwe-oyile yaseVenezuela e-China kuya kuphinda kuphindwe kathathu ukuya kwi-500,000 bpd. Kunye neprojekthi yokucoca edibeneyo yokujongana ne-oyile yaseVenezuela e-China, iinkampani zase-China ziye zafumana ikhontrakthi yokwakha ishumi elinambini lamaqonga okomba i-oyile, ukubonelela ngeetanki ze-oyile ezili-18, nokusebenzisana ne-PdVSA, inkampani ye-oyile yaseVenezuela ephantsi kolawulo lukarhulumente, ukuhlola iindawo ezintsha zeoyile eVenezuela. .
Ngexesha likaSekela Mongameli waseTshayina u-Xi Jinping kutyelelo loMzantsi Melika ngoJanuwari ka-2009, iBhanki yoPhuhliso yase-China yavuma ukuboleka i-PdVSA i-6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuze i-oli inikezelwe e-China kule minyaka ingama-20 izayo. Ukususela ngoko i-China ivumile ukuphinda kabini ingxowa-mali yophuhliso kwi-12 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, imbuyekezo apho iVenezuela iya kwandisa ukuthunyelwa kweoli ukusuka kwi-380,000 bpd yangoku ukuya kwisigidi esinye se-bpd.
IBhanki yoPhuhliso yase-China kutshanje igqibe ekubeni iboleke inkampani yepetroleum yaseBrazil i-10 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ukuze ibuyiswe kubonelelo lweoyile kwiminyaka ezayo. Eli nani liphantse lalingana ne-11.2 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi eyabolekwa yi-Inter-American Development Bank kumazwe awahlukeneyo aseMzantsi Merika kulo nyaka uphelileyo. I-China iseke ubukho bayo borhwebo e-Brazil ngaphambili ngokunikezela ngamaxabiso anengeniso entsimbi ekrwada kunye neembotyi zesoya, iimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ezithe zaphembelela ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseBrazil.
Ngokufanayo, iBeijing yaphula umhlaba omtsha kummandla ngokunika iBuenos Aires ukufikelela ngaphezu kweedola ezili-10 zeedola kwiiyuans. IArgentina yaba lelinye lamaqabane amathathu aphambili eTshayina anikwe olu khetho, amanye yi-Indonesia kunye noMzantsi Korea.
Ngaba iYuan iya kuba yiMali yamazwe ngamazwe?
Ngaphandle kwentshukumo eninzi, i-China iqalile ukwenza indima yemali yayo kumazwe ngamazwe. Ikwinkqubo yokwandisa indima yeyuan eHong Kong. Nangona iyinxalenye yeTshayina, iHong Kong inemali yayo, iDola yaseHong Kong. Kuba iHong Kong yenye yezona marike zezimali zikhululekileyo kwihlabathi, ilungiselelo eliqikelelweyo liya kunceda ukuthengiswa kweyuan kumazwe ngamazwe.
Xa sijonga umva, inkalo ebalulekileyo yeNgqungquthela ye-G-20 eLondon ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli igxile kwinto eyenziwe yiTshayina. Ipapashe uhlalutyo lwayo olunzulu lwengxaki yemali ekhoyo esidlangalaleni kwaye yanika isisombululo esibukhali.
Kwinqaku elichukumisayo elikwi-intanethi, uZhou Xiaochuan, irhuluneli yebhanki engundoqo yaseTshayina, ubhekisele โkwiingxaki zemali ezixhaphakileyo zehlabathiโ ezithe zachaphazela ihlabathi. Ingxaki ingalandelelwa ngo-Agasti ka-1971, xa uMongameli uRichard Nixon wathabatha idola kwizinga legolide. Kuze kube ngoko, i-$ 35 yathenga i-ounce enye yegolide egcinwe kwimivalo e-Fort Knox, eKentucky - izinga eliye lalungiswa ngo-1944 ngexesha leMfazwe Yehlabathi yesiBini ngama-Allies kwinkomfa yaseBretton Woods, eNew Hampshire. Ngelo xesha, i-greenback yayikwabizwa ngokuba yimali yokugcina i-globe. Noko ke, ukususela ngowe-1971, kuye kwaxhaswa nanye into ebambekayo ngaphandle kwetyala leUnited States.
Ukujonga nje ishumi elinesiqingatha leminyaka edlulileyo kubonisa ukuba, phakathi ko-1994 no-2000 kuphela, bekukho iingxaki zoqoqosho kumazwe alithoba amakhulu ezithe zachaphazela uqoqosho lwehlabathi: iMexico (1994), Thailand-Indonesia-Malaysia-South Korea-the Philippines (1997) -98), iRashiya kunye neBrazil (1998), kunye neArgentina (2000).
Ngokutsho kukaZhou, iingxaki zemali zibangele xa iimfuno zasekhaya zelizwe elikhupha imali egciniweyo ziphikisana neemfuno zezimali zamazwe ngamazwe. Umzekelo, ukuphendula kuhlaselo lwe-9/11, i-US Federal Reserve Board inciphise kakhulu inzala ukuya kutsho kwirekhodi esezantsi ye-1% ukunyusa usetyenziso lwasekhaya ngexesha apho uqoqosho olukhula ngokukhawuleza ngaphandle kwe-United States lwalufuna ngaphezulu. inzala ukupholisa izinga lokukhula kwabo.
โIngxaki [ekhoyo] iphinde yacela ukuba kuhlengahlengiswe imali ekhoyo yokugcina imali,โ ubhale watsho uZhou. "Imali enguvimba eyongameleyo elawulwa liziko lehlabathi ingasetyenziselwa ukudala nokulawula ukungabikho kwemali kwihlabathi. Oku kuya kunciphisa kakhulu umngcipheko wentlekele yexesha elizayo kwaye kwandise amandla okulawula ingxaki."
Emva koko wabhekisa kumaLungelo aKhethekileyo oMzobo (SDR) weNgxowa-mali yeMali yaMazwe ngaMazwe. I-SDR yimali eyinyani exabiso layo libekwe yimali "ingobozi" eyenziwe yidola yaseMelika, i-euro yaseYurophu, iponti yaseBritane, kunye ne-yen yaseJapan, zonke zifaneleka njengemali yogcino, kunye ne-greenback eyinkokeli. . Ukususela oko i-SDR yayilwa ngo-1969, i-IMF iye yagcina ii-akhawunti zayo ngaloo mali.
UZhou uqaphele ukuba i-SDR ayikavunyelwa ukuba idlale indima yayo epheleleyo. Ukuba indima yayo iye yaphuculwa, wathi ngenye imini inokuba yimali yogcino lwehlabathi.
Ingcamango kaZhou ifumene impendulo efanelekileyo evela kwi-Kremlin, eyacebisa ukongeza igolide kwibhaskithi yemali ye-IMF njengento yokuzinzisa. Imali yayo, i-ruble, sele ifakwe kwibhaskithi eyi-55% ye-euro kunye ne-45% yedola. Kwisithuba seminyaka elishumi yokusungulwa kwayo, iyuro ibeyeyesibini kweyona mali ibambekayo yogcino kwihlabathi, ifumana phantse i-30% yetotali xa ithelekiswa nedola yama-67%.
UNobhala wezeMali uTimothy Geithner wasabela ngokukhawuleza kwinqaku likaZhou: "Isiphakamiso saseTshayina sifanele siqwalaselwe." Iimarike zezemali ze-nervous e-US zathatha oku njengophawu oluvela kuNobhala we-Treasury ukuba idola yayilahlekelwa ubukhulu bayo. UGeithner urhoxile emva kokungxama. Kwaye uMongameli u-Obama wajoyina ngokukhawuleza, esithi: "Andiqondi ukuba kukho imfuneko yemali yehlabathi. Idola yomelele ngokungaqhelekanga ngoku."
Ngokwenyani, ukugcina ingqiqo yaseTshayina, uZhou akazange akhankanye imeko yedola yaseMelika kwinqaku lakhe, kwaye akazange athethe nokuba iyuan kufuneka ibandakanywe kwimali eyongamileyo ayicebileyo. Nangona kunjalo bekucacile kubo bonke oko ngeli xesha libalulekileyo - kunye neenkokheli zehlabathi eza kudibana eLondon ukuze bacinge indlela yokuphelisa eyona ngxaki inkulu yezemali ukusukela kuxinzelelo olukhulu - ukuba iChina ibibize ixesha layo, nangona uqoqosho lwesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni, ngoku lalibonisa isandla salo esomeleleyo.
Yonke imiqondiso kukuba iWashington ayinakukwazi ukuyibuyisela ubume quo ante emva โkokudodobala okukhulu koqoqoshoโ kungokunje kuye kwavula ithuba lokuchacha. Kule minyaka izayo, iinkokeli zayo kuya kufuneka zijongane nenyani kwaye zivume, nangona ngokuthandabuza, ukuba iiplati zetectonic zoqoqosho ziyatshintsha - kwaye ziphulukana namandla emali kwimimandla echumileyo yoMhlaba, eyona nto iphambili yiChina.
UDilip Hiro ungumbhali, kutshanje, we IGazi Lomhlaba: Idabi leMithombo yeOyile eNcitshayo yeHlabathi (Iincwadi zeSizwe). Incwadi yakhe ezayo Emva koBukhosi: ukuPhakamisa kweHlabathi leMultipolar iza kupapashwa ziincwadi zeSizwe kulo nyaka.
[Eli nqaku lavela kuqala I-Tomdispatch.com, iblogi yeSizwe yeZiko, ebonelela ngokuhamba ngokuqhubekayo kweminye imithombo, iindaba, kunye noluvo oluvela kuTom Engelhardt, umhleli wexesha elide ekupapasheni, umseki we iProjekthi yobuKumkani baseMelika, Umbhali we Ukuphela kweNkcubeko yokuNqoba, kunye nomhleli we Ihlabathi ngokukaTomdispatch: IMelika kwiXesha Elitsha loBukhosi.]
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