Ngamanye amaxesha, kunokuba mnandi ukungena ngaphakathi kwimbono yehlabathi ephambeneyo ukubuza ukuba isebenza njani nobungqina obuphikisanayo. Ngokomzekelo, abantu abakholelwa kwindalo bayivisisanisa njani imbono yabo yokuba zonke izityalo nezilwanyana zadalwa ngendlela ezikuyo ngoku malunga neminyaka eli-10,000 XNUMX eyadlulayo, nobungqina befosili bezinto eziphilayo ezisusela kumakhulu ezigidi zeminyaka?
Ngolu hlobo, kufanelekile ukubuza ukuba abo baxhasa ukucutha intsilelo bacinga njani ukuba intsilelo esezantsi iya kukhokelela ekukhuleni okwandileyo nokudalwa kwemisebenzi kuqoqosho olugutyungelwe kukuwohloka okukhulu? Akukho mpendulo ilula.
Kukho ibali eliqhelekileyo elithi "econ 101" malunga nokuba ukunciphisa intsilelo kunokunyusa njani uqoqosho. Ithiyori ithi ukuba urhulumente uyanciphisa intsilelo yakhe, kwaye ke uboleka imali encinci, iya kunciphisa inzala. Inzala ephantsi iyakuthi, nayo inike iifemu inkuthazo yokutyala imali eninzi.
Inzala ephantsi kufuneka ibangele ukuba idola yehle, kuba iya kwenza iibhondi zikaRhulumente wase-US kunye nezinye ii-asethi zeedola zingathandeki kubatyali-mali bangaphandle. Ukuba idola liwela kwixabiso, ke iimpahla zethu ziya kukhuphisana ngakumbi kwiimarike zehlabathi. Oku kuya kubangela ukuba singenise kancinci kwaye sithumele kumazwe angaphandle ngaphezulu, ngaloo ndlela sidale amathuba emisebenzi.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaba le nto i-deficit Hawks ikholelwa ukuba iya kwenzeka ngoku? Izinga lenzala kwiibhondi ze-Treasury zeminyaka eyi-10 sele ihlile ukuya kwi-3.0%. Ukucinga ukuba i-2% yexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, oku kuguqulela kwizinga lokwenyani malunga ne-1%. Ingaba iDeficit Hawks icinga ukuba inzala iyakwehla kangakanani ukuba sinokuyinciphisa kabukhali intsilelo? Ngaphaya koko, lungakanani utyalo-mali abacinga ukuba sinokulukhuthaza nokuba sifumene unciphiso olukhulu (umzekelo, ipesenti ye-0.5 yepesenti) kwinzala yokwenyani?
Ngaba bacinga ukuba olu hlobo lokuhla kwinzala luya kuthumela idola kwaye ngaloo ndlela iphucule ibhalansi yethu yorhwebo? Ngokuchasene naziphi iimali eziya kuthi inzala ephantsi ibangele ukuba idola iwele ngokukhawuleza?
Akukho nalinye kula mabali aluphumeleleyo ngokwenene uvavanyo lokuhleka. Okona kulungileyo, sinethemba lokubona inzala ephantsi ngokuthozama ukuba ukucutha intsilelo yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali kucothisa ukukhula ngakumbi. Kodwa akukho sizathu sokulindela nakuphi na ukuhla kwexesha elizayo ukuba kube nefuthe elingakumbi kunokuncipha kwamva nje kwireyithi ye-Treasury ye-10 yeminyaka ukusuka kwi-3.6% ebusika ukuya kufutshane ne-3.0% ekhoyo kule nyanga.
Kukho elinye ibali apho i-deficit hawks ilityhala ngamaxesha athile. Lo uthi xa sigxotha abasebenzi kwicandelo likarhulumente, lo nto iyakwandisa ingqesho kwicandelo labucala. Ibali elilapha, kucingelwa ukuba, ukudendwa kwabasebenzi abaninzi becandelo likarhulumente kuya kuthoba imivuzo yabasebenzi ngakumbi, ngaloo ndlela kwenze ukuba kube nengeniso ngakumbi kubaqeshi ukubaqesha. Kukho ingxaki elula kulo mfanekiso. Ukuze imivuzo yehle ngokwenene, ingqesho eyongezelelweyo kwicandelo labucala kufuneka ingabi nkulu njengelahleko yemisebenzi kwicandelo likarhulumente.
Ngamanye amazwi, ukuba sigxotha abasebenzi becandelo likarhulumente abangama-500,000, ngoko ke icandelo labucala kufuneka linyuse ingqesho ngabasebenzi abangaphantsi kwama-500,000; ngenye indlela, imivuzo ibiya kunyuka, ingehli, kwaye amashishini ebengayi kuba nayo nayiphi na inkuthazo yokuqesha abasebenzi abangakumbi. Oku kuthetha ukuba le ndlela yokuvuselela uqoqosho ngokusebenzisa ukucutha kukarhulumente inokusisondeza kwindawo ebesikuyo. ngaphambi kokuphuma. Asiyondlela yokongeza imisebenzi kuqoqosho. Kwaye nakweyona meko ilungileyo, kunokuthatha ixesha elide ukusondela kuloo meko, ekubeni umvuzo ungehli ngokukhawuleza.
Akukho nalinye kula jelo elivakala lithembisa kakhulu, njengoko phantse nawuphi na umntu ozimiseleyo kuya kufuneka avume. Oku kushiya ijelo eliyimfihlakalo leemvakalelo ezimbi. Eli bali lihamba ukuba amashishini aziva kakubi malunga nentsilelo. Banexhala lokuba banokuhlawula iirhafu eziphezulu kwixesha elizayo, kusenokubakho ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, okanye urhulumente angawa. Ngezi zizathu, amashishini ebenokuthi ngenye indlela atyale iingeniso zawo ezinkulu, endaweni yoko, ahleli kuwo.
Kukho iingxaki ezimbini ngebali leemvakalelo ezimbi. Okokuqala, amashishini eneneni atyala imali ngesantya esisempilweni entle. Kwakukho ukwakhiwa okugqithisileyo kwezakhiwo kwi-real estate boom, kodwa utyalo-mali kwizixhobo kunye nesoftware njengesabelo se-GDP sele ibuyele kwinqanaba layo langaphambili lokudodobala koqoqosho. Ngenxa yomthamo ogqithisileyo kweli candelo, ngenene kufanele ukuba sibuza ukuba kutheni utyalo-mali luphezulu kangaka, hayi kutheni luphantsi.
Ingxaki yesibini ngeli bali kukuba ukwesaba iirhafu eziphezulu kwixesha elizayo sisizathu esihle sokuba amashishini azame ukutyalomali kunye nokufumana inzuzo ngoku. Xa iofisi yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali yenkongolose wasebenzisa imifuziselo ezahlukeneyo ukuhlola impembelelo Bush-uhlobo lokucuthwa irhafu, abo babonise iziphumo ezilungileyo kakhulu babecinga ukuba ukucuthwa kwerhafu kuya kuba okwethutyana. Oku kutsale ngempumelelo utyalo-mali kunye neenzame zokusebenza phambili kwixesha eliphantsi lerhafu. Inqaku lelokuba ukuba abantu babekholelwa ngokwenene ukuba baya kuhlawula iirhafu eziphezulu kakhulu kwixesha elizayo, ngoko kufuneka basebenze nzima kwaye batyale imali namhlanje - ngokuchasene nebali le-hawk ye-deficit.
Ke, okokugqibela, asinalo ibali elihambelanayo malunga nokuba ukuncitshiswa kwentsilelo yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali kuya kukhulisa njani ukukhula - kanye njengokuba abo bakholelwa kwindalo bengenayo ingcaciso ehambelanayo yoko sikwaziyo malunga nezityalo kunye nezilwanyana. Umahluko omkhulu kukuba i-deficit hawks imisela umgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho.
Eli bali lapapashwa okokuqala kwi- Guardian Unlimited.
UDean Baker ngumlawuli oncedisayo weZiko loPhando loQoqosho noMgaqo-nkqubo (CEPR). Ungumbhali we Iinzuzo zobuxoki: Ukubuyiswa kwakhona kuQoqosho lweBubble. Ukwanayo neblogi, "Betha Cinezela," apho axoxa ngokusasazwa kwamajelo eendaba ngemiba yezoqoqosho.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela