Angokutsho kweU.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, u-2015 ibingowona nyaka ushushu ehlabathini ukususela ngo-1880 ubuncinane, xa amanani anjalo arekhodwa okokuqala. U-2014 wayengowona ufudumeleyo, kwaye iminyaka emihlanu eshushu ikwabandakanya u-2013, 2010, no-2005. Ngaba kunokucaca ngakumbi ukuba kufuneka siyeke ukudlala i-roulette yaseRashiya kunye nemozulu yehlabathi?
Izinto ezimbini ezibalulekileyo ekufuneka sizenze ukuzinzisa imozulu zithe ngqo. Okokuqala, ihlabathi limele likuphelise ngokuphawulekayo ukuthembela kwalo kwioli, amalahle, negesi yendalo ekuveliseni amandla. Oku kungenxa yokuba i-carbon dioxide (CO2) izinto ezikhutshwayo eziveliswa ngokutshiswa kwamafutha efosili, kunye nokukhutshwa kwemethane ngexesha leenkqubo zokutsalwa kwamafutha ezilwanyana zamandulo, zinoxanduva malunga ne-75 yepesenti yazo zonke izinto ezikhutshwayo zegesi yegreenhouse ebangela ukutshintsha kwemozulu. Okwesibini, njengenye indlela yokusetyenziswa kwamafutha eefosili, kwakhona kwinqanaba lehlabathi, kufuneka sandise kakhulu utyalo-mali ekusebenzeni kombane kunye nemithombo yamandla ahlaziyekayo acocekileyoโilanga, umoya, i-geothermal, i-bioenergy ekhutshwa kancinci, kunye nombane omncinci wamanzi.
Zombini iinxalenye zale nkqubo yozinziso lwemozulu ziya kuvelisa iimpembelelo ezinkulu kumathuba engqesho kubantu abasebenzayo ngokunjalo nakwiindawo abahlala kuzo. Utyalo-mali kwimpumelelo nakwizinto ezihlaziyiweyo ezicocekileyo ziya kuvelisa izigidi zemisebenzi emitsha. Kodwa abasebenzi noluntu olubomi babo buxhomekeke kushishino lwamafutha efosili ngokungenakuthintelwa baya kulahlekelwa kukutshintsha kwamandla acocekileyo. Ngaphandle kokuba kuphuculwe imigaqo-nkqubo engqingqwa yokuxhasa aba basebenzi, baya kujongana nokudendwa, ukuhla kwemivuzo, kunye nokwehla kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwecandelo likarhulumente lokuxhasa izikolo, iikliniki zempilo kunye nokhuseleko loluntu. Oku kuya kwandisa ukuxhathisa kwezopolitiko kuyo nayiphi na inkqubo esebenzayo yozinziso lwemozulu.
Abasebenzi basemgodini wamalahle babuyela ngenqwelo emva kokusebenza ishifti ngaphantsi komhlaba kuMgodi wamalahle weSebe lasePerkins eCumberland, eKentucky. Kutshanje ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yee-1970, bekukho ngaphezu kwemigodi ye-350 esebenza nangaliphi na ixesha eHarlan County. Ngo-2014, malunga nama-40.
Oku kulandela ukuba iprojekthi yozinziso lwemozulu yehlabathi kufuneka izibophelele ngokungathandabuzekiyo ekuboneleleni ngenkxaso yesisa yenguqu kubasebenzi kunye noluntu olubotshelelwe kushishino lwefosili. Inkokeli yabasebenzi yaseMelika engasekhoyo kunye nombonisi wendalo esingqongileyo uTony Mazzocchi waba nguvulindlela ecinga ngento ngoku ebizwa ngokuba โyiNguqu njeโ yaba basebenzi noluntu. Njengoko uMazzocchi wabhalayo kwangowe-1993, โUkuhlawula abantu ukuze batshintshe ukusuka kolunye uhlobo loqoqosho baye kolunye akuyontlalontle. Abo basebenza ngezinto ezinetyhefu mihla le ... ukuze babonelele umhlaba ngamandla kunye nezinto ezizidingayo bafanele ukuncedwa benze isiqalo esitsha ebomini. โ
Kweli nqaku, siphakamisa isakhelo soTshintsho oluLungileyo lwabasebenzi baseU.S. Uqikelelo lwethu olungelulo lwesiphelo senkqubo enjalo luthozamisa nje iidola ezingama-600 ezigidi ngonyaka. Oku kumalunga nepesenti enye yenqanaba lonyaka lotyalo-mali lukawonke-wonke oluya kufuneka ukuqhubela phambili ngempumelelo inkqubo yonke yozinziso lwemozulu yase-U.S. Njengoko sibonisa, eli nqanaba lenkxaso-mali lingahlawulela ingeniso kunye nenkxaso yengxowa-mali yomhlala-phantsi kubasebenzi abajamelene nokudendwa kunye neenkqubo ezisebenzayo zenguqu kwindawo ngoku ezixhomekeke kumafutha aphantsi komhlaba.
Esinye isizathu sokuba iindleko zale nkqubo zinokugcinwa zincinci kungenxa yokuba ukucuthwa kweshishini leefosili kuya kwenzeka ngokuhambelana nokukhula koshishino lwamandla acocekileyo. Oku kubalulekile kuba, phakathi kwezinye izinto, kuqoqosho lwase-U.S., inani lemisebenzi eveliswa lutyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo liya kuba likhulu kakhulu kunemisebenzi eya kulahleka ngokudendwa kweshishini leefosili. Ngokukodwa, ukuchitha i-1 yezigidi zeedola kutyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo kuvelisa imisebenzi emalunga ne-17 kuwo onke amacandelo oqoqosho lwase-US, ngelixa ukuchitha i-1 yezigidi zeedola ekugcineni isiseko se-fossil esikhoyo sivelisa kuphela imisebenzi emihlanu. Utyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo luza kuvelisa imisebenzi eyongezelelekileyo kubachwephesha bombane, abafuleli, abasebenza ngentsimbi, oomatshini, iinjineli, abaqhubi beelori, izazinzulu zophando, amagqwetha, ababhali-mali, nabancedisi bolawulo. Omnye umceli mngeni ongundoqo womgaqo-nkqubo kukukhangela imisebenzi elungileyo kwiindawo eziya kuthwaxwa kanobom kukuhla kwamashishini amafutha efosili.
Ukuqulunqa inkqubo yeJust Transition esebenzayo ngumbandela wobulungisa obulula, njengoko uMazzocchi wagxininisayo. Kodwa ngokulinganayo ngumcimbi wezopolitiko ezicwangcisiweyo. Ngaphandle koncedo lohlengahlengiso olunjalo, abasebenzi kunye noluntu olujongene nokudendwa baya kuthi, ngokuqikelelwa kwangaphambili nangokuqondakalayo, balwe ukukhusela ubomi babo. Oku, kuza kudala ulibaziseko olungamkelekanga ekuqhubeni nemigaqo-nkqubo esebenzayo yozinziso lwemozulu. Njengomzekelo omnye ocacileyo, phakathi kuMeyi, isebe le-AFL-CIO Building Trades lathumela ileta ebuhlungu kumongameli walo mbutho, uRichard Trumka, egxeka imanyano entsha ye-AFL-CIO yokuphuma kwivoti kunye nomxhasi wezendalo itshantliziyo uTom Steyer. Umsantsa obanzi e-U.S. phakathi kweemanyano ezininzi ezinkulu kunye neengcali zokusingqongileyo kwiiprojekthi ezibonelela ngemisebenzi yomanyano, njengePipeline Keystone, ibonisa ngokucacileyo ukuba yintoni esemngciphekweni.
Mkhulu kangakanani uCwangciso lweeFossil zaseU.S.?
I-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ibonelela ngebenchmarks ezilondolozayo malunga nento efunekayo ukuzinzisa umndilili wobushushu behlabathi ongekho ngaphezu kwe-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) ngaphezu komndilili wangaphambi koshishino. Isishwankathelo esifanelekileyo sovavanyo lwabo kukuba i-CO yehlabathi2 Izinto ezikhutshwayo kufuneka ziwe ngama-40 ekhulwini ngo-2035 kwaye nge-80 ekhulwini ngo-2050.
Masithi ukukhutshwa kwe-US kuya kufuna ukuhla kulo myinge wehlabathi jikelele, kwaye masigxininise kwinjongo ye-20 yeminyaka yokuncipha kweepesenti ze-40. Ukufezekisa le njongo kuya kufuna ukunqunyulwa kwebhodi kwimveliso kunye nokusetyenziswa kuwo onke amacandelo e-fossil yasekhaya. Kodwa ukusikwa kuya kufuneka kube kukhulu kumalahle. Ngokweyunithi yamandla eveliswayo, ukukhutshwa kwamalahle avuthayo malunga nama-40 ekhulwini aphezulu kuneoli kunye nama-50 ekhulwini aphezulu kunegesi yendalo. Ukongezelela, ngokuqinisekileyo kule minyaka ingama-20 izayo, kuya kuba nzima ngakumbi ukufumana izinto ezithabathelโ indawo ioli njengamafutha olwelo kwezothutho kunokusebenzisa amalahle njengomenzi wombane. Ukunikezelwa kwezi ngqwalasela, siqhubeka nengcamango yokuba, ngo-2035, ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle e-US kuya kufuneka kwehla ngeepesenti ze-60, ngelixa ukusika kuya kufuneka kube malunga neepesenti ze-40 zeoli kunye neepesenti ze-30 zegesi yendalo.
Umsantsa phakathi kweemanyano ezininzi ezinkulu kunye neengcali zokusingqongileyo kwiiprojekthi ezifana ne-Keystone XL Pipeline ibonisa ngokucacileyo ukuba yintoni esemngciphekweni. Apha, amakhulu abasebenzi babasebenzi baxhasa i-Keystone XL Pipeline ngexesha le-Local 798 Rally ngoLwesibini, ngo-Apreli 9, 2013, eTulsa, e-Oklahoma.
Ezinye iiyantlukwano ezinkulu phakathi kwamalahle kunye ne-oyile kunye negesi nazo zibalulekile kwiinjongo zethu-ingakumbi, into yokuba imboni yamalahle yase-US ifumene ukuhla okubukhali kwinzuzo kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo. Ukunyuka kwemimiselo yokusingqongileyo kube yinto enye kuphela apha. Ukhuphiswano oluvela kwirhasi yendalo enexabiso eliphantsi, eveliswe ngobugcisa be-fracking, nalo luye lwabangela ilahleko enkulu. Impembelelo edibeneyo ibe yingozi. I-Bloomberg News yanikela ingxelo ngoJanuwari ukuba โabavelisi bamalahle batsala nzima ngenxa yendlela eyimbali. Kule minyaka mihlanu idluleyo, eli shishini liye laphulukana nama-94 ekhulwini exabiso lalo lemarike, ukusuka kwii-R68.6 zamawaka ezigidi ukusa kwii-R4.02 zamawaka ezigidi.โ Ukongeza, isiqingatha setyala elikhutshwe ziinkampani zamalahle zaseMelika ngoku alikho, kwaye abavelisi abakhulu bamalahle iArch Coal, iAlpha Natural Resources, kunye nePeabody Energy bonke bafake izicelo zokubhanga kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Konke oku phambi kokuba siya kuqalisa ukucuthwa kwemveliso ngama-60 ekhulwini kwiminyaka engama-20 ezayo.
Iimeko kwioli kunye negesi zihlukile. Ishishini belikhula ukusuka ku-2011 ukuya ku-2014, njengoko amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada ajikeleza malunga ne-100 yeedola ngomphanda. Kodwa inzuzo yehla ngokukhawuleza njengoko ixabiso leoli liye lancipha ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-60 yeedola ngomphanda ngo-2015 kwaye ngaphantsi kwe-$ 40 umphanda ngo-2016. Ngo-2016, ukungaphumeleli kwamatyala kwiinkampani zeoli kunye negesi zifikelele kwi-15 ekhulwini. ETexas kuphela, ishishini lichithe malunga nama-70,000 emisebenzi. Akucaci ukuba kungakanani ukunyuka kwexabiso leoli kuya kufuneka ukubuyisela umva le mikhwa mibi, okanye ukuba kukho nakuphi na ukonyuka kwexabiso leoli kunokwenzeka ukuba kuvele kungekudala. Enoba kuyintoni na, ukucuthwa kwemveliso ngama-30 ekhulwini ukuya kuma-40 ekhulwini kwiminyaka engama-20 ezayo kuya kuyenza mandundu imeko esele ingazinzanga. Kuya kuthetha ntoni oku kubasebenzi beshishini leefosili kunye noluntu?
Ukubonelela ngenkxaso-mali yokuthatha umhlala-phantsi kwangethuba
Urhulumente wase-US uye waxhoma iinkqubo ezininzi eziyilelwe ukunceda abasebenzi abajongene nokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi ngenxa yokhetho lomgaqo-nkqubo karhulumente. Elona libalaseleyo kwezi linyathelo le-Federal Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), elaqala ukuphunyezwa ngo-1962 kwaye lisasebenza nanamhla oku. I-TAA yenzelwe ukunceda abasebenzi abagxothiweyo ziishifti kwimigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo yehlabathi yaseMelika. Inkqubo ixhasa inkxaso-mali yemivuzo, i-inshurensi yezempilo, ingcebiso, ukuqeqeshwa kwakhona, ukufuduswa, kunye nokukhangela umsebenzi. Ixabiso lilonke limalunga ne-10,000 yeedola ngomsebenzi ngamnye ngonyaka, kwaye abasebenzi, ngokwe-avareji, baxhamla malunga neminyaka emibini. Nangona kunjalo, imibutho yabasebenzi kudala ihlekisa ngeli nqanaba lenkxaso-mali njengelincinci, elilingana ne-inshurensi yokungcwaba.
Iinkqubo zomdibaniso ezifanayo azikhange zisebenze ngakumbi kune-TAA ekufuduseni abasebenzi abagxothiweyo baye kwimisebenzi emitsha elungileyo. Kunoko, phezu kwawo nje amanyathelo anjalo, abasebenzi abagxothiweyo baye bagxothwa ikakhulu kwimisebenzi efumana umvuzo ophantsi. Umzekelo, uphononongo luka-1999 olwenziwe nguLaura Powers no-Ann Markkusen kwiinkqubo zenguqu yasemva kweMfazwe ebandayo ezifana neDefence Reinvestment and Conversion Initiative yafumanisa ukuba โuninzi lwabasebenzi bagxothiweyo kumashishini anxulumene nezokhuselo phakathi ko-1987 no-1997 ngoku basebenza emisebenzini. ababahlawula ngaphantsi kwemivuzo yabo yangaphambili baze basilele ukusebenzisa ubuchule babo bokuzikhusela, yaye iqaqobana elikhulu liye lafumana ukwehla kwemivuzo ngama-50 ekhulwini okanye ngaphezulu.โ
Xa kunikwe le pateni, umntu akanakuba nethemba lokuba iziphumo ziya kuba ngcono kakhulu ukuba imigaqo-nkqubo efanayo ibiphunyezwa njengenxalenye yotshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo. Ngethamsanqa, kukho enye indlela elula nengabizi kangako enokusebenza. Oku kukubonelela ngenkqubo yonyaka omnye yomhlalaphantsi phambi kwabanye abasebenzi. Ukuba sigxile ekucuthekeni kweshishini ngo-2035โipesenti ezingama-60 zamalahle, iipesenti ezingama-40 zeoyile, kunye neepesenti ezingama-30 zerhasi yendaloโukudendwa okufunekayo kuya kuba ngaphaya komlinganiselo oqhelekileyo apho abasebenzi becandelo lefosili baya kuthatha umhlala phantsi. nangona kunjalo kwiminyaka engama-65.
UMongameli u-Obama utyikitya uhlaziyo loNcedo loLungiso lwezoRhwebo, eyona nkqubo ibalaseleyo ekhoyo eyenzelwe ukunceda abasebenzi abajongene nokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi ngenxa yokhetho lomgaqo-nkqubo karhulumente, ngo-Oktobha 21, 2011. ye-inshurensi yokungcwaba.
Nanga amanani asisiseko. Ukususela ngoMeyi 2015, bekukho abantu abayi-69,000 abaqeshwe kwishishini lemigodi yamalahle e-US, kunye ne-194,000 kwi-oyile kunye negesi. Oku kuquka abantu ababandakanyeka ngokuthe ngqo kumsebenzi wokwemba kunye nokugrumba ngokwawo ngokunjalo naye wonke umntu owenza zonke iintlobo zemisebenzi ebandakanyekayo ekuveliseni amalahle, i-oyile, negesi yendalo, ukusukela kwinkxaso yee-ofisi ukuya kubaphathi abakwinqanaba eliphezulu. Inkqubo yoncedo lohlengahlengiso iya kusebenza kuyo yonke ibhodi kubo bonke abasebenzi kuwo omabini amashishini, nokuba bangaphi na.
Ukuqala ngeshishini lamalahle, masicinge ukuba imveliso iyehla ngeepesenti ezingama-60 kwisithuba seminyaka engama-20. Oku kuthetha ukuba eli shishini liza kulahla imisebenzi emalunga nama-41,000 kule minyaka ingama-20 izayo. Loo nto ifikelela malunga nama-2,100 elahleko yemisebenzi ngonyaka kwishishini.
Kukho abasebenzi abangama-28,000 kushishino lwamalahle abaphakathi kweminyaka engama-45 nama-64. Oku kuguqulela kumyinge wabasebenzi abali-1,400 abadla umhlala-phantsi ngonyaka kule minyaka ingama-20 izayo. Ngamanye amazwi, isibini esithathwini semisebenzi engama-2,100 ekufuneka ichithwe ngonyaka kwishishini lamalahle iya kwenzeka ngokuphelelwa yindalo ngokuthatha umhlala-phantsi kwiminyaka engama-65 ubudala. abakafikeleli kwiminyaka yobudala esemgangathweni ye-700.
Oku kuthotywa kwemisebenzi yongezelelekileyo kunokusingathwa ngokulula ngokubonelela ngengxowa-mali eya kubonelela ngembuyekezo epheleleyo kwiminyaka engama-64 ubudala kwaba basebenzi bangama-700. Siqikelela umgangatho ophakathi wembuyekezo iyonke (umvuzo kunye nezibonelelo) kushishino, kuquka naleyo yabaphathi, ibe malunga ne-$78,000 ngonyaka. Oku kuya kuba yintengo emalunga nezigidi ezingama-55 zeedola kubasebenzi abangama-700 ngonyaka. Urhulumente womdibaniso uya kufuna ukuhlawulela oku kuthenga.
Singasebenzisa izibalo ezifanayo kubantu abayi-194,000 abaqeshwe kwishishini leoli negesi. Ukucinga ukuba imveliso kwishishini kuya kufuneka yehle malunga neepesenti ezingama-40 kwiminyaka engama-20, malunga nabasebenzi abangama-900 ngonyaka kuya kufuneka baxhaswe ngokuthengwa kwembuyekezo epheleleyo xa befikelela kwiminyaka engama-64. Umndilili wembuyekezo kwishishini, kwakhona kubandakanya Ukuhlawulela abaphathi, ngoku malunga ne-120,000 yeedola. Oku kuthetha ukuba iphakheji yokuthenga iyonke yabasebenzi be-oyile kunye negesi ye-900 iminyaka engama-64 ubudala iya kuba malunga ne-108 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka. Ukuthengwa kwabasebenzi kwimizi-mveliso yamalahle neyeoli iyonke imalunga ne-165 lezigidi zeerandi ngonyakaโimali ephantsi ngendlela emangalisayo.
Ukongeza kubasebenzi abaqeshwe ngokuthe ngqo kumashishini amalahle ase-US, i-oyile, kunye negesi yendalo kuyo yonke imisebenzi, kukho abasebenzi abongezelelweyo ababandakanyekayo "kwimisebenzi yenkxaso" kula mashishini kunye namashishini ahlobene. Ukubonelela aba basebenzi ngenkxaso-mali efanelekileyo yomhlalaphantsi kufuneka kube lula ukulawulwa. Njengoko kumanani karhulumente we-2015, malunga ne-412,000 abantu baqeshwe kuyo yonke imisebenzi yenkxaso kuwo wonke amashishini ase-US asezimayini kunye ne-extractive. Oku kuquka abasebenzi kulawulo, imisebenzi yobungcali, ukwenza izinto, ukwakha, ezothutho, imisebenzi yoomabhalane neenkonzo zokucoca. Kukho abanye abasebenzi abangama-72,000 eU.S. ababandakanyeka kwimisebenzi eyahlukeneyo yokusulungekisa i-petroleum.
Uninzi lwaba bantu bamalunga nama-500,000โkubandakanywa nabasebenzi abaqeshwe kwimisebenzi yenkxaso kunye nokusulungekiswaโabayi kuchaphazeleka kakhulu ngokudendwa kumashishini efosili. Phakathi kwezinye izinto, umlinganiselo ophezulu wazo uqhagamshelwe kumacandelo afana nokwembiwa kwentsimbi nobhedu endaweni yokutsalwa kwamafutha efosili. Ngokucocwa, isabelo esikhulu sibandakanyeka ekuveliseni i-petrochemicals, ngokuchasene nepetroli ecocekileyo. Imveliso ye-Petrochemical ayiyi kunqunyulwa njengenxalenye yenguqu yamandla ecocekileyo, kuba ivelisa kuphela i-CO engenanto.2 izinto ezikhutshwayo. Okubaluleke nangakumbi, amacandelo akhulayo amandla acocekileyo kuya kufuneka aqeshe inani elikhulu labasebenzi abaxhasayo ukuze benze iinkonzo ezifanayo nezo zifunekayo kwimveliso yamafutha efosili.
Kunzima ukubala ngokuchanekileyo ukuba bangaphi na abasebenzi abaqeshwe kule misebenzi yenkxaso abaya kuchaphazeleka kakhulu kukwehla kwemveliso yamafutha efosili yaseMelika. Uqikelelo olukumgangatho ophezulu lunokwenza ezi ndleko zilingane neendleko zokuthengwa kwabasebenzi abachaphazeleka ngokuthe ngqoโenye yeedola ezili-165 lezigidi ngonyaka. Ngaloo ndlela, uqikelelo oluphezulu lweendleko ezipheleleyo zokubonelela ngezibonelelo zokuthenga kwiminyaka engama-64 kubo bonke abasebenzi abajongene nokudilizwa-ngokuchasene nenkqubela phambili yendalo ukuya kumhlala phantsi kwi-65-iya kuba malunga ne-330 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka.
Ukuqinisekisa ngePension exhaswa ngokupheleleyo
Ukuba inkqubo yethu yoTshintsho oluLungileyo iza kuthembela kakhulu ekuthotyweni kwabasebenzi ngokuthatha umhlala-phantsi kwiminyaka engama-64 okanye engama-65, kuyanyanzeleka ukuba bonke abasebenzi abachaphazelekayo babe nenkamnkam ekhuselekileyo nefanelekileyo ebalindileyo xa bethatha umhlala-phantsi. Ukuphumeza oku kuya kuba ngumngeni omkhulu. Oku kungenxa yokuba uninzi lwabasebenzi base-US, bobabini abo basebenza kwishishini le-fossil fuel kwaye ngokubanzi, abanayo inshorensi yepension enganelanga.
Abasebenzi baseUnited States baxhasa ngemali umhlala-phantsi ngokudibanisa imithombo emithathuโuKhuseleko lweNtlalo, imali yabo yabucala, nemali yomhlalaphantsi esekelwe kumqeshi. Imali eyongiweyo yomntu ngamnye ayide iphakame ngokwaneleyo ukuba ikwazi ukufumana imali yomhlalaphantsi. Oku kuyinyani ngakumbi emva kokuwa kwezimali ngo-2007โ2009. Uninzi lwamakhaya akukafaneli lubuyele kwimeko yokwehla kobutyebi bamakhaya phantse ngama-30 eepesenti ngenxa yobunzima. NgoKhuseleko loLuntu, i-avareji yenzuzo yangoku imalunga ne-16,000 yeedola, engaphezulu nje kancinci kunomda we-$15,300 wokufaneleka kwesitampu sokutya. Ngeli xesha, malunga nesinye esithathwini sabo bonke abasebenzi becandelo labucala bebengakwazi ukufikelela kwizibonelelo zomhlalaphantsi kubaqeshi babo.
Kulo mxholo, eyona ndlela isebenzayo ekuqinisekiseni inkxaso eyaneleyo yomhlalaphantsi yabasebenzi beshishini leefosili iya kukubonelela ngenkxaso enjalo bonke abasebenzi, nokuba ngawaphi na amashishini abaqeshiweyo. Nangona kunjalo, kufutshane nolo hlengahlengiso lwamabhongo olunjalo lwenkqubo yonke yomhlalaphantsi yaseMelika, kukho imilinganiselo urhulumente wobumbano aya kufuneka awathathe ukuze aqinisekise ukhuseleko lomhlalaphantsi kubasebenzi beshishini lefosili ngokukodwa.
Okwangoku, ezona nkqubo ziphambili zomhlalaphantsi kwimizi-mveliso yamalahle ne-oyile sele zixhaswa ngemali. Imeko imbi kakhulu ngamalahle. Ingxowa-mali yomhlalaphantsi yeshishini ilawulwa nge-United Mine Workers of America Health and Retirement Funds, equka abaqeshi abaninzi. Kodwa le ngxowa-mali iye yathwaxwa kukudodobala ngokukhawuleza kweshishini lamalahle kwaye okwangoku ixhaswa nge-1.8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. NgoFebruwari 9 Washington Post Ibali lanikela ingxelo yokuba ingxowa-mali yabasebenzi-mgodini bamalahle โyehle ngokukhawuleza njengoko ezinye iinkampani zamalahle zilahla abasebenzi abahlawula intlawulo yaye abanye bafaka izicelo zokukhusela ukutshona. Ngaphandle kokungenelela, ezinye iimaliโingakumbi ezo zinxulumene neefemu ezitshonileyoโzinokuphelelwa yimali ngaphambi kwentwasahlobo.โ
Izixeko ezikhulu ezibotshelelwe kushishino lwamafutha efosili, njengeDallas naseHouston, eboniswe apha, ngokungenakuthintelwa ziya kujongana nohlengahlengiso olukhulu, olufana nezo zifunyanwa zizixeko ezikhulu zokuvelisa ezifana neDetroit nePittsburgh kule minyaka ingamashumi amathathu idlulileyo.
Ulawulo luka-Obama lwazisa inyathelo kunyaka ophelileyo elibizwa ngokuba yi-โPower Plusโ elibiza ngaphezulu kwe-1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwinkcitho yoqeqesho lwemisebenzi nophuhliso loqoqosho kunye neemali ezongezelelweyo zokuxhasa imali yomhlalaphantsi kunye nezempilo yabasebenzi. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, esi siphakamiso sivaliwe bubunkokheli beCongress yeRiphabhlikhi. Kodwa nokuba inguqulelo yayo ibinokudlula, akucaci ukuba iya kugubungela ngokupheleleyo isikhewu sangoku se-1.8 yebhiliyoni yenkxaso-mali.
Le pension fund kufuneka iphelele. Ukuthintela umsantsa omkhulu wokufumana inkxaso-mali, ingxowa-mali โinokumiswaโ kwinqanaba elikhoyo lokuzibophelela kubasebenzi. Ingxowa-mali iya kuvalwa kubasebenzi abasanda kuqeshwa, kodwa kusenokwenzeka ukuba bambalwa kakhulu abaqeshwa abatsha nakweyiphi na imeko, njengotshintsho olusuka kumafutha efosili ukuya kwingeniso yamandla acocekileyo. Ukungenelela komgaqo-nkqubo ofunekayo apha-ngokusebenzisa i-Power Plus kunye nawaphi na amanyathelo ongezelelweyo, njengoko kufuneka-kuya kuba ngurhulumente wobumbano ukuqinisekisa ukuba i-gap ye-1.8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ivalwe ngokudibanisa izibophelelo ezenziwe ziinkampani zombini kunye norhulumente.
Njengoko kuphawuliwe, iinkampani zeoyile kunye negesi okwangoku azikho ndawo kufutshane nenqanaba loxinzelelo olujongene neenkampani zamalahle. Ukususela ngo-2009 ukuya ku-2014, iinkampani ezirhweba esidlangalaleni kwishishini zinike ingxelo ye-234 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwingeniso, i-147 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwizabelo, kunye ne-47 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwizabelo ezithengiweyo. Baphulukene ne-200 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2015 njengoko amaxabiso eoyile aye ehla. Kodwa bakwazile ukusasaza i-23 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwizabelo kunye ne-1.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwizabelo ezithengiweyo ngaloo nyaka. Ngelo xesha, nangona kunjalo, iinkampani ezintlanu ezinkulu ze-oyile negesi zase-US zizodwa-i-ExxonMobil, i-ConocoPhillips, i-Chevron, i-Devon Energy, kunye ne-Anadarko-yayithwele phantse i-13 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwii-pension ze-2014 kunye ne-14 yezigidigidi ze-2015.
Ngenxa yokuba ishishini le-oyile negesi liza kufuneka lingene phakathi kweepesenti ezingama-30 ukuya kuma-40 kwiminyaka engama-20 ezayo njengenxalenye yotshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo, kufuneka silindele ukuba iinkampani aziyi kubeka phambili ukuzalisa imali yazo yomhlalaphantsi njengomba wo kunjalo. Ngoko ke urhulumente wobumbano kuya kufuneka agunyazise inkxaso-mali epheleleyo. Enye indlela yokunyanzelisa oku iya kuba yePension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)-ingalo yorhulumente wobumbano-ukuba isebenzise amagunya ayo phantsi koMthetho woKhuseleko lwePension ka-2006 ukuthintela iinkampani ze-oyile ekuhlawuleni izabelo okanye ukuxhasa ngemali ukubuyiswa kwesabelo de kube yimali yabo yomhlalaphantsi. ziye zaziswa kwinkxaso-mali epheleleyo kwaye zigcinwe kwelo nqanaba. Njengoko kufuneka, i-PBGC ingasebenzisa igunya layo phantsi koMthetho ka-2006 ukubeka ikhonkco kwizinto zenkampani xa iimali zomhlalaphantsi zingaxhaswa ngemali.
Ukudibanisa iNkxaso yoLuntu kunye notyalo-mali lohlaza
Uluntu oluxhomekeke kushishino lwamafutha efosili luza kujongana nemiceli mngeni enzima yokuhlengahlengisa ukuwohloka koshishino. Oku kuya kuba yinyani nokuba konke ukucuthwa kwabasebenzi kunokulawulwa ngokuphelelwa ngumhlalaphantsi kwaye zonke izibophelelo zengxowa-mali yomhlalaphantsi kubasebenzi abadla umhlala-phantsi befosili zihlonitshwa ngokupheleleyo.
Izixeko ezikhulu ezibotshelelwe kwishishini le-fossil, njenge-Houston ne-Dallas, ngokungenakuthintelwa ziya kujongana nohlengahlengiso olukhulu, olufana nezo zifunyanwa zizixeko ezikhulu zemveliso ezifana neDetroit nePittsburgh kule minyaka ingamashumi amathathu idlulileyo. Kodwa uluntu oluncinci olungahlukananga kangako luya kufumana ilahleko enkulu. I-Midland, eTexas, isixeko sabahlali be-120,000, sithembele kokubini kwi-oyile yemveli kunye nokutsalwa kwerhasi kunye neeprojekthi zeoyile ye-shale yamva nje ukuvelisa iipesenti ezingama-65 zomsebenzi wezoqoqosho wesixeko. I-Midland kunye nesixeko esingudade wayo, i-Odessa, ibikhula kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngengeniso eyi-avareji yokwenyani kumacandelo amafutha efosili inyuke ngomyinge wama-22 ekhulwini phakathi kowama-2006 no-2014, ngenxa yokukhula ngakumbi kokutsalwa kweoli ye-shale. Kodwa le ndawo iphinde yafumana ilahleko yemisebenzi eyi-13,000 ngo-2015-i-7.5 ipesenti yabasebenzi bendawo yonke-njengoko amaxabiso eoli ehla. Ngaphandle kwenkqubo yotshintsho esebenzayo, le pateni yokwehla iya kuqhubeka.
Imeko, kwakhona, isembi kakhulu kuluntu oluxhomekeke kumalahle. Ngokomzekelo, kwiNqila yaseBoone, eWest Virginia, ama-47 ekhulwini ayo yonke imisebenzi kwiminyaka yakutshanje yayikwishishini lamalahle. Nangona kunjalo, phakathi nje kowama-2011 no-2015, ingqesho yokomba amalahle kule ngingqi yehle ukusuka kwi-4,600 ukuya kwi-1,400, ukwehla ngama-70 ekhulwini. Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-county nalo lwawa ngeepesenti ze-45 phakathi kwe-2012 kunye ne-2015. Ukususela ekuqaleni kwe-2016, i-county iye yalahla ootitshala be-70 kwaye yadibanisa izikolo ezithathu zamabanga aphantsi. Kwakhona, ngokungabikho kwenkqubo yenguqu esebenza kakuhle, le pateni iya kuqhubeka kwi-Boone County kunye noluntu oluxhomekeke kumalahle ngokufanayo.
I-US nangona kunjalo inakho ukuqhubela phambili iinkqubo zohlengahlengiso ezikwaziyo, ubuncinci, zokuthoba kakhulu izibetho eziza kujongwa yiMidland, iBoone County, kunye noluntu oluninzi olume ngendlela efanayo. Ukuphumeza oku kuya kuba ngumbandela wentando yezopolitiko.
Ukuqala, masikhumbule ukuba ukuwohloka kwamashishini amafutha efosili kuya kwenzeka ngokubambisana nokunyuka koqoqosho lwamandla acocekileyo. Kuphononongo luka-2014 Ukukhula okuluhlaza, omnye wethu (uPollin), kunye nababhali-bambisene nabo, kuqikelelwa ukuba iindleko zonyaka zoluntu kunye nezabucala zenkqubo ye-20 yeminyaka yokusika i-U.S. CO.2 ukukhutshwa kweepesenti ezingama-40 kuya kuba malunga nama-200 eebhiliyoni zeedola ngonyaka. Kwelo nqanaba lilonke lenkcitho yotyalo-mali, i-Pollin kunye nababhali-bambisene nabo baqikelele imfuno yonyaka yenkcitho yoluntu malunga ne-50 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka, okanye i-25 yepesenti yetotali, malunga ne-150 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka zivela kutyalo-mali lwabucala olukhuthazwa yinkxaso yoluntu. Eli nqanaba lidityanisiweyo lotyalo-mali lukarhulumente nolwabucala kwiiprojekthi zamandla acocekileyo kufuneka luvelise ukwanda okushiyekileyo okumalunga nezigidi ezithathu zemisebenzi kuqoqosho lwase-U.S., nasemva kokuba sijongane ngokupheleleyo nelahleko yemisebenzi kumashishini eefosili kunye nemisebenzi enxulumene noko.
Ngaphakathi kwale nkqubo ibanzi yotyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo, imigaqo-nkqubo inokuyilwa ukuze imimandla enamashishini emafutha efosili amakhulu kunomndilili afumane inkxaso yesisa ukuqhubela phambili iiprojekthi zamandla acocekileyo ezifanelekileyo kwingingqi. Umzekelo, iTexas kunye neWyoming zinokufumana inkxaso eyongezelelweyo yokwakha iiprojekthi zokuvelisa amandla omoya. Amalinge ahambisana nale migaqo sele eqalisile. Ummandla we-Appalachian unokufumana inkxaso eyongezelelweyo yokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kwisakhiwo sabo kunye nenkqubo yokuhambisa igridi yombane.
Iinkqubo zangaphambili zomdibaniso zinokusebenza njengemizekelo eluncedo malunga nendlela yokunyusa eliza lotyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo ukuxhasa uluntu oluxhomekeke kwi-fossil-uluntu olujongene nenguqu. Kukho izifundo ezikhuthazayo nezingalunganga ekunokwakhelwa kuzo. Omnye umzekelo yinkqubo yoTshintsho lwaBasebenzi kunye noLuntu eyayisebenza ngeSebe lezaMandla ukusuka ku-1994 ukuya ku-2004. Injongo yayo "yayikukunciphisa iimpembelelo kubasebenzi kunye noluntu olubangelwa kukutshintsha kwemishini yeSebe lezaMandla." Le nkqubo, kunye namaphulo anxulumeneyo, yayijoliswe kuluntu olu-13 olwaluxhomekeke kakhulu kwimisebenzi yoshishino lwenyukliya kodwa emva koko lwajongana nokudendwa ngenxa yokupheliswa kogunyaziso lwenyukliya. Ibonelele ngenkxaso-mali kunye nezinye iindlela zoncedo ukuze kukhuthazwe ukuhlukahlukana kolu luntu lu-13 luchaphazelekayo kunye nokugcina imisebenzi okanye kudalwe amathuba amatsha engqesho. Ulwabiwo lwenkqubo luphelele malunga ne-200 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka kwiminyaka yayo yokuqala, kodwa luye lwaba luncinci kakhulu, kuluhlu lwe-20 yezigidi zeedola, kwiminyaka yokugqibela yokusebenza.
Umsebenzi-mgodini wamalahle uJohnny Turner, oneminyaka engama-35 ubudala, ubeka iibhutsi zakhe zamalahle phezu kwelokhari yakhe emva kokugqiba umsebenzi ongaphantsi komhlaba kumgodi wamalahle ePerkins eCumberland, eKentucky. Ukusukela kweyoMqungu ka-2012, urhulumente uphulukene nemisebenzi yemigodi engaphezu kwama-7,000, eminye yeyona misebenzi inengeniso kulo mmandla weli lizwe. Ukuqeshwa kwam eKentucky kukwelona nqanaba lisezantsi ukusukela kuDado oluKhulu.
Uphononongo olwenziwe nguJohn Lynch noSeth Kirshenberg ngowama-2000 lubonelele ngovavanyo olululo ngokubanzi lwenkqubo. Baqukumbela ngelithi โabahlali abali-13, njengomgaqo ngokubanzi, baye badlala indima ebalulekileyo ekutsaleni imisebenzi emitsha nasekuthinteleni impembelelo yokucuthwa kwezixhobo zamandla kwilizwe liphela.โ Kodwa njengoko uLynch noKirshenberg bephawula, โEyona ngxaki inkulu ijongene noluntu oluchaphazelekileyo kumandlaโฆ Ukujongana nale ngxaki ngokuthe ngqo, amalinge oncedo loluntu anokukhuthaza ukusekwa kwamashishini amatsha ombane acocekileyo kwiindawo ezichaphazelekayo. Omnye umzekelo wenkqubo enempumelelo yokwahlukana yaba kukwenziwa ngokutsha kwendawo yovavanyo lwenyukliya eNevada kwindawo ngoku eyindawo yovavanyo lwelanga. Ngaphezulu kweemayile ezingama-25 kwindawo yangaphambili yenyukliya isetyenziselwa ukubonisa ubugcisa obugxininisiweyo bamandla elanga kunye nokunceda ukubazisa ekurhwebeni.
Akukho ngqiqweni ukulindela ukuba iinkqubo zenguqu ziya kuthi, kuzo zonke iimeko, zikhokelele ekuphuhliseni iziseko ezitsha zezoqoqosho ezixhasa inqanaba langaphambili lommandla wabemi kunye nengeniso yoluntu. Kwezinye iimeko, indima yoncedo loluntu iya kuba kukwenza uluntu, luqhubele phambili, lucuthe ukuya kubungakanani obunokuxhaswa yisiseko esitsha sezoqoqosho.
Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba ubungakanani bokufuduka koluntu ngokubanzi okuya kubangela ukuguqulwa kwamandla acocekileyo akuyi kuba mkhulu kunokuba i-US yafumana emva kokuphela kweMfazwe ebandayo. Phakathi kuka-1987 kunye no-1996, i-1.4 yezigidi zemisebenzi yalahleka iyonke kumashishini okhuselo kunye ne-aerospace, i-40 yepesenti yehla. ISan Diego kunye neFiladelphia zombini ziphulukene nemisebenzi engama-50,000 ngeli xesha, nto leyo emele ukwehla kuzo zombini iimeko ezimalunga ne-6 ekhulwini labasebenzi babo.
Urhulumente wobumbano uye waqhubela phambili iinkqubo zotshintsho olukhulu ngeli xesha, ngakumbi ngeNyathelo loKhuseleko lokuTyalwa ngokutsha kunye noGuqulo, inkxaso yalo iyonke ifikelele ngaphezulu kwe-16.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka ku-1993 ukuya ku-1997, okanye malunga neebhiliyoni ezi-4 zeerandi ngonyaka. Uphononongo luka-1999 olwenziwa nguPowers noMarkusen lwafumanisa ukuba ezi nkqubo zazanele ngokwemigangatho yenkxaso-mali iyonke, malunga ne-12,000 yeedola ngomsebenzi ofudusiweyo. Sekunjalo, Amandla noMarkusen baphetha ngokuthi inkqubo ayizange iphumelele ekuxhaseni impilo-ntle yabasebenzi ngabanye kunye noluntu lwabo. Oku kwakungenxa yokuba imigaqo-nkqubo yenguqu yayigxile ikakhulu ekunikeni inkxaso kwiikontraka zecandelo lezokhuselo, ngokukhuthazwa kokudityaniswa kunye nokwandiswa kweemarike zezixhobo zangaphandle. Abasebenzi abadendisiweyo bebesoloko bengalufumani uncedo oluyimfuneko lokwenza umsebenzi owanelisayo kunye notshintsho lomsebenzi.
Ngokucacileyo, ukunyusela inkqubo yenguqu yomanyano, nokuba ixhaswa ngemali kakuhle, ayisosisombululo ngokwayo. Owona mceli-mngeni ungundoqo iya kuba kukuhlanganisa ezi nkqubo zenguqu ngokukuko kunye nokuza kotyalo-mali lukarhulumente nolwabucala kumandla ombane acocekileyo namandla ahlaziyekayo acocekileyo kunye nezigidi zamathuba emisebenzi amatsha aveliswa lolu tyalo-mali.
Iindleko zizonke zoTshintsho nje
Inkqubo yoTshintsho oluLungileyo esiyizobileyo apha iya kufuna amanqanaba abalulekileyo enkcitho karhulumente kwimimandla emithathu. Ezi ziquka:
Umhlala-phantsi kwiminyaka engama-64 kunye nembuyekezo epheleleyo. Uqikelelo lwethu oluphezulu koku, kubandakanywa nabasebenzi abaqeshwe kwinkxaso efanelekileyo kunye nemisebenzi yokusulungekisa engaphandle kweshishini le-fossil ye-fossil ngese, yi-$330 yezigidi ngonyaka.
Umhlalaphantsi oqinisekisiweyo ngokupheleleyo. Njengomlinganiselo ophezulu, urhulumente wase-US kuya kufuneka achithe i-1.8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuzisa i-United Mine Workers of America Health and Retirement Funds kwinkxaso-mali epheleleyo. Oku kufikelela kwi-90 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka kwiminyaka engama-20. Inani linokuba sezantsi kangangoko iinkampani zamalahle zinokwenziwa ukuba zibe negalelo ekuvaleni umsantsa wenkxaso-mali enganeno. Iinkampani zeoyile kunye negesi, ngokuchaseneyo, zisenakho ngokupheleleyo ukuvala izikhewu zazo zenkxaso-mali engaphantsi. Ezi zikhewu ke ngoko kufuneka zisingathwe ngongenelelo lolawulo.
Inguqu yoluntu. Ukusebenza kwinkqubo eyimpumelelo yoMsebenzi kunye neNkqubo yoTshintsho loLuntu, inqanaba eliphezulu lenkxaso liya kuba malunga ne-200 yezigidi zeerandi ngonyaka. Oku kuya kongezwa kwiiprojekthi zotyalo-mali ezithe ngqo zamandla acocekileyo angena kuzo zonke iingingqi zelizwe. Kungenjalo, ukuba sisebenzisa uTyalo-mali loKhuselo olungaphumelelanga kunye neNyathelo loGuqulo njengemodeli yezemali, oko kuya kuthetha ukuchitha malunga ne-12,000 yeedola ngomsebenzi ogxothiweyo, efikelela kwinkcitho yonyaka emalunga ne-150 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka. Ke, uluhlu olufanelekileyo lwezi nkqubo luphakathi kwe-150 yezigidi zeedola kunye ne-200 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka.
Ukudibanisa ezi nkalo zintathu zomgaqo-nkqubo, siqikelela iindleko zizonke njengoko zimalunga nama-600 ezigidi zeerandi ngonyaka kwisithuba seminyaka engama-20 yenguqu. Eli nqanaba lenkcitho yomdibaniso linokufunxwa ngokulula phakathi kwe-200 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi zonyaka zotyalo-mali lwenkqubo yotyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo eU.S esithe sayidweba ngasentla, kunye nenkcitho kawonke-wonke ngokuthe ngqo kule nkqubo malunga neebhiliyoni ezingama-50 zeedola ngonyaka. Inkqubo yoTshintsho nje esiyicebisayo, exabisa malunga nama-600 ezigidi zeerandi ngonyaka, iya kuba malunga ne-1.2 yeepesenti ye-50 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwinkcitho yoluntu iyonke efunekayo ukwakha uqoqosho lwamandla acocekileyo e-US.
Njengenye inketho, le nkxaso-mali inokuveliswa ngogcino-mali oluza kufunyanwa ngurhulumente wobumbano ngokutyalo-mali ukuze kunyuswe imigangatho esebenzayo ngama-30 ekhulwini kuninzi lwezakhiwo abanazo okanye eziqeshisayo, njengoko kuchazwe nguMthetho we-Energy and Security Act ka-2007. Olu tyalo-mali lolwakhiwo kufuneka lusindise urhulumente wobumbano malunga ne-1.3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka, okanye ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kabini kunokufuneka kwinkqubo yoTshintsho nje. Ngaphaya koku, ukuseka i-carbon cap okanye irhafu ukuthomalalisa ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili kunokuvelisa ngokwenyani malunga nama-200 eebhiliyoni zeedola ngonyaka. Iindleko ezipheleleyo zeprogram ye-Just Transition iya kuba malunga neepesenti ze-0.3 zeengeniso ezinokuvela kwirhafu yekhabhoni okanye i-cap.
Ngokufutshane, iNguqu eLungileyo yabasebenzi base-US kwishishini lefosili yefosili iyafikeleleka kakhulu. Ikwasisinyanzeloโyokubini sisinyanzelo sokuziphatha nesesicwangciso-qhinga. Kuya kuba nzima ukuqhubela phambili ngesantya esiyimfuneko kwinguqu yamandla acocekileyo ngaphandle kokwenza izibophelelo eziqinileyo ekuxhaseni ngesisa abasebenzi kunye noluntu oluya kulimala ngolu tshintsho. Ukuphinda ukhumbule amazwi kaTony Mazzocchi, "Abo basebenza ngezinto ezinetyhefu mihla le ... ukuze babonelele umhlaba ngamandla kunye nezinto ezizidingayo bafanelwe uncedo lokunceda ukwenza isiqalo esitsha ebomini."
URobert Pollin nguNjingalwazi oBekekileyo wezoQoqosho kunye nomlawuli weZiko loPhando loQoqosho lwezopolitiko (PERI) kwiYunivesithi yaseMassachusetts Amherst. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje ithi Ukwenza uhlaza kuQoqosho lweHlabathi.
UBrian Callaci yi UMass Amherst Ph.D. umfundi kwezoqoqosho kunye nomphandi wangaphambili kwi Guqula to Win.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
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