Kuyoyikeka kancinci uku
bona indlela, naphakathi kohlaselo oluyintlekele nomsebenzi
yaseIraq, eUnited States, iphinde yabandakanyeka โkwinqanaba eliphezulu
ulwaphulo-mthetho,โ isenako ukudibanisa i-UN kunye ne-NATO yayo
Amaqabane ukuba agxile, abethe, kwaye agrogrise i-Iran ukuba iyiyeke inyukliya yayo
imisebenzi okanye ukujongana nohlobo oluthile lwempindezelo. Le ntsebenziswano
kwenzeka nangona imeko iUnited States yakha yenza
malunga norhulumente wase-Iraqi "izixhobo zokutshabalalisa"
isoyikiso, mhlawumbi olona thotho lungathenjwayo lobuxoki obusemthethweni
kwimbali yase-US, kwaye ngelixa i-United States isabulala i-Iraqis,
Ukutshabalalisa isixeko esikhulu saseFallujah kwaye ngoku sinika
Ukuphathwa kwe-Fallujah ngokulandelelana kwezixeko ezibonayo
abavukeli-friendly, kutshanje Tal Afar, engenasiphelo emehlweni.
Enyanisweni, i-UN kunye ne-NATO amaqabane baye banika isohlwayo sokubuyela emva
Ukuhlasela ngogonyamelo yaye baye bakunika inkxaso ebambekayoโUN
ISigqibo seBhunga lezoKhuseleko 1546 sikaJuni 2004 siye sagqitywa
ukuguqulwa kokwala kwabo kwangaphambili ukuvumela uhlaselo-uhlaselo.
Kodwa ngokufanisa, ukuba iJamani neItali zazinamandla ngokwaneleyo,
uManyano Lwezizwe lusenokuba lwawavuma emva kwexesha amaNazi
ukuhlala eCzechoslovakia nasePoland, okanye ukuhlasela kukaMussolini
yaseAbyssinia, ngexesha langaphambi kweMfazwe Yehlabathi II. Olu luhlobo lweKafkaesque
inkqubela-ebhekiselele ekuqondweni kwamalungelo abo banamalungelo
amazinyo amakhulu kunye neenzipho ezibukhali ukulawula ihlathi, zivunyelwe
โluluntu lwamazwe ngamazweโ (oko kukuthi, oorhulumente,
amaziko ezizwe ngezizwe, kunye nezinye iiNGOs, zihlala zikude kakhulu
abantu ekucingelwa ukuba babamele).
I-United States ithi i-Iran iqhubela phambili kumandla enyukliya
iya "kuzinzisa ngendlela emangalisayo" (Bush) kwaye isoyikise
"uxolo lwezizwe ngezizwe" kunye nozinzo, ngelixa kucingelwa ukuba
I-United States iyayazi yonke into malunga noxolo kunye nozinzo, nto leyo
izise ngempumelelo eIraq kwaye yona kunye nenani layo
umxhasi omnye uSirayeli uzise ePalestine. "Uzinzo"
kweli lizwe laseKafkaesque lithetha ilungiselelo elivunywe ngu-Godfather,
ukuze nakuphi na ukungazinzi kwehlabathi lokwenyani kukutshintsha nje, nangona kunjalo
inokuhlala ixesha elide kwaye ibandakanye ukubulawa kwabantu abaninzi kunye nokutshatyalaliswa okukhulu.
Olunye uphawu oluphawulekayo โlwentlekeleโ entsha kukuba
I-Iran ibonakaliswe ngempumelelo njengenkohlakalo kunye nosongelo olusekelwe kuyo
ithemba elikude lokufumana izixhobo zenyukliya, njengoko
I-United States kunye no-Israyeli bakhupha ezo zixhobo kwaye basongela i-Iran
ngohlaselo. Ukuba i-Iran ifumene izixhobo zenyukliya ayinakuze
basebenzise ngokuchasene noSirayeli okanye iUnited States ngaphandle kokwenza
ukuzibulala kwesizwe, ngelixa i-United States iye yazisebenzisa kwi
kwixesha elidlulileyo kwaye inokukwenza ngoku ngaphandle kwesoyikiso sempindezelo yenyukliya.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuba i-Iran yakha isitokhwe esincinci sezixhobo ezinjalo inokuzibeka
isoyikiso esinokwenzeka esisezantsi sempendulo yenyukliya kuhlaselo oluthe ngqo.
Ke esona โsisongeloโ sase-Iran sisisongelo sokukwazi
ukuzikhusela (jonga uHerman, โIsongelo esikhulu saseIran,โ
Z Magazine, Oktobha 2004). Kwimeko yezopolitiko yangoku,
ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka kwayo mva nje, iUnited States isenako ukuyifumana
"uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe" ukuba luhambe kunye nokuzenzisa kwalo
ukuba i-Iran ibeka uhlobo oluthile lwesisongelo sokwenyani kunye nokusebenzisana nayo
yona iqulathe eso sisongelo sasentsominiโxa eneneni i
uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe lunceda i-United States ne-Israel
ziqulathe "umsongelo" we-Iran wokufumana isikhundla esiphuculweyo
ukuzikhusela, kunye nokunceda ukubeka iqonga lolunye uhlaselo-umsebenzi.
I-United States iyahamba nale nto nangona kunjalo
okhethekileyo ekusebenziseni izixhobo zenyukliyaโkunye nabantu abaqhelekileyo
abantu-iyaqhubeka ukubaphucula, kwaye, kutshanje,
uye wazama ukubenza bancinci kwaye "basebenziseke," kwaye
ugrogrisa ngokuphandle ukuzisebenzisa kwakhona. Ilushiyile ukuzinikela
yenze ekutyikityeni iSivumelwano sokuNganandisi kweNyukliya
Izixhobo (i-NPT) ngo-1970 eyayingayi kuzisebenzisa ngokuchasene nezixhobo zenyukliya
amandla. Ikwasilele ngokumasikizi ukuphumeza isithembiso
kweso sivumelwano sokuzabalazela ukuphelisa ngokupheleleyo izixhobo zenyukliya.
(Ngo-1996, iNkundla yoBulungisa yeZizwe ngezizwe yagweba ngamxhelo mnye ukuba,
โKukho isibophelelo sokusukela ngokuthembeka nokuzisa
ekuqukumbeleni uthethathethwano olukhokelela ekuthotyweni kwezixhobo zenyukliya kubo bonke
imiba yayo phantsi kolawulo olungqongqo nolusebenzayo lwamazwe ngamazwe.โ)
I-United States ikwasebenzisane nomxumi wayo u-Israel
ukuvumela kunye nokuxhasa ngokuqinisekileyo inyukliya ekudala ikho yakwaSirayeli
inkqubo yezixhobo eyenze ukuba ibe kuphela kwamandla enyukliya kuMbindi
Bucala ngasekhohlo. Ke, ngokusebenzisana ne-United States kwi-Iran-containment
kunye nenkqubo ye-prelude-to-aggression, uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe luyayamkela
umgangatho ophindwe kabini ocacileyo: yi-United States kuphela kunye nayo
amaqabane kunye nabaxhasi banelungelo lokufumana izixhobo zenyukliya kwaye kuphela
iithagethi zabo zixhomekeke ngokufanelekileyo kumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kwaye kufuneka
zigcinwe kwizithembiso ezenziwe kwizivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe.
Ewe, ingxabano yenziwa okanye ichaza ukuba iUnited States
kwaye uSirayeli ulungile, ufuna ezi zixhobo zokukhusela ngokusemthethweni.
kwaye akunakwenzeka ukuzisebenzisa ngokungenankathalo, ngelixa i-Iran ingekho
kuhle, ixhasa abanqolobi, kwaye ayifuni ezi zixhobo
ukhuselo olusemthethweni. Le yingcamango enyulu kunye nobuvuvu obupheleleyo,
ubhidekile nakukujonga nje okwethutyana kwinyani (ukufumana umfanekiso ogcweleyo,
bona uWilliam Blum, Ukubulala Ithemba: Ungenelelo lweMilitare yase-US kunye neCIA
Ukususela kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi II; Blum, Urhulumente weRogue; kunye noNoam Chomsky,
Hegemony okanye Ukusinda). Njengoko kuphawuliwe, iUnited States elungileyo
ekuphela kwelizwe elikhe lasebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya kwaye lenza njalo ngokuchaseneyo
abantu ekujoliswe kuko. Ngokungakhathali, iUnited States yophule umthetho
uthintelo lweTshatha yeZizwe eziManyeneyo kuhlaselo oluxhobileyo oluwela imida, ukuthwala
yachaza โulwaphulo-mthetho oluphakamileyoโ iZizwe Ezimanyeneyo ezazenzelwe ukukuthintela
akukho ngaphantsi kwezihlandlo ezithathu kule minyaka isixhenxe idlulileyo, kwaye yona kunye nayo
Umxhasi wakwa-Israel uye waphula ngokucwangcisekileyo iiNdibano zaseGeneva
kwimpatho yamabanjwa kunye nokuziphatha kwiindawo ezithinjiweyo,
ngelixa u-Israel engazinanzi izigwebo ezininzi zeBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN,
ngenkxaso yaseMelika.
Ngokubhekiselele kwinkxaso yobunqolobi, i-Iran ayikho kwiligi enye
kunye ne-United States kunye ne-Israel, zombini eziye zahlala ngokuthe ngqo
babandakanyeka kubugrogrisiโoko kukuthi, ubunqolobi obuthe kratyaโnabo
njengokuxhasa kunye nokuxhasa abanqolobi abathengisayo. Inyukliya yase-US
iklabhu kunye nosongelo ngokwalo luhlobo lobunqolobi kunye ne-United States
iye yasongela ngokuphindaphindiweyo iibhombu zenyukliya. โUmothuko noloyikoโ lwalo
izicwangciso zenzelwe ngokuphandle ukoyikisa, kwaye e-Iraq (njengaku
IVietnam, njl.njl.) iyathomalalisa ngokusetyenziswa komlilo omkhulu
iyoyikisa ngokunjalo iyabulala. IUnited States ekugqibeleni yajika
ekujoliswe kuko kwabantu eSerbia ngo-1999 ngenjongo evulelekileyo yoku
ukunyanzelisa ukunikezela okujoliswe kuko ngokukhawuleza ngohlaselo lobunqolobi kubemi.
U-Israyeli naye wenze okufanayo, inkqubo yakhe yokuthomalalisa ngexesha layo
ukuhlala ixesha elide kunye "nokukhulula umhlaba" kwi-West Bank
okubandakanya ukusetyenziswa ngokuzinzile nangokukhohlakeleyo kwezigalo kunye noloyiko. Kwiminyaka eyadlulayo
U-Abba Eban uvumile ukuba abantu baseLebhanon baqhushumbisiwe ngenxa
โKwakukho ithemba elisengqiqweni, ekugqibeleni lazaliseka, lokuba
abantu abaxhwalekileyo bangenza uxinzelelo lokuyeka
ubutshaba.โ Oko kukuthi, uSirayeli wayelandele inkqubo yobunqolobi,
kwingcaciso kaBenjamin Netanyahu yegama elithi: โi
ukubulala ngabom nangokucwangcisiweyo, ukungxwelerha, nokoyikisa abamsulwa
ukukhuthaza uloyiko ngeenjongo zobupolitika.โ
Lo bugrogrisi obuthengiswayo, obuqeshwe ngokuthe ngqo, buxhaswa ngu
inkxaso kunye nenkxaso yabanqolobi basekuhlaleni kunye nemikhosi yabanqolobi.
AmaSirayeli axhasa umkhosi we-proxy eLebhanon iminyaka, nje
njengoko iUnited States ixhasa iNicaragua contras, iMujahadeen
kunye neTaliban e-Afghanistan (ngoo-1980), kunye ne-UNITA kaSavimbi
eAngola. Oku kukukrwela nje umphezulu wewholesale kunye
ukuxhasa abanqolobi ukuba i-Iran ayinakuze ifane. Yenye ye
impumelelo enkulu inkqubo propaganda Western ukuba ezi
ubunqolobi bokwenyani nobukhulu buqhelekile, akunakubhekiselwa kubo
ngegama elibi elifana nobugrogrisi, abenzi bobubi bavunyelwe ukuba benze njalo
โkuziphindezelaโ kuphela kwaye ubandakanyeke โkulwa nobunqolobi.โ
Ukufana phakathi kwe-Iraq ne-Iran
Ukufana okunye phakathi kwe
I-Iraq kunye ne-Iran iqhubela phambili ekuhlaselweni komkhosi sisisongelo sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye
ugxininiso oluzinzileyo kwisityholo soyikiso. Nokuba iIran yayinenyukliya
isixhobo okanye izixhobo zenyukliya ezilishumi elinambini, ngaba elo hlabathi liyingozi
uxolo kwaye luvelise ukungazinzi okanye luya kunciphisa umngcipheko
kwi-Iran ngokwayo ngamandla avakalisa ilungelo lokuthintela
imfazwe kunye nomxhasi wayo wakwaSirayeli? Imidiya eqhelekileyo ngokupheleleyo
ukwala ukuxoxa ngalo mba ubalulekileyo, ukuwuthatha njengento nje
ukuba ukufumana kwe-Iran izixhobo zenyukliya kuya kuba kubi kakhulu
kwaye njengeearhente ezilungileyo zepropaganda ezigxile kuphela kumabango emihla ngemihla
Usoyikiso kunye nezityholo zase-Iran ezityholwa ngokungekho mthethweni nezoyikiso zijonge phambili
ukufumana izixhobo ezinjalo. Ukuba urhulumente wabo uthi izenzo ze-Iran
zibeke isoyikiso esibi, oko kwanele kumajelo eendaba. Amajelo eendaba
batshiswe kakubi kwi-Iraq run-up kwaye abambalwa babo emva kwexesha
babonisa ukuzisola ngokukholelwa kwabo, i ENew York Times
kakhulu edume, kodwa akuzange kuthathe ixesha kubo konke ukufudukela kwi
ukukholelwa okufanayo kunye nendima yepropaganda malunga ne-Iran eyoyikekayo
isoyikiso.
Ngaba iUnited States inezandla ezicocekileyo ekujonganeni nalo mbandela?
Oko kukuthi, ithobele isibophelelo sayo se-NPT sokungagrogrisi okanye
sebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngokuchasene namazwe avumayo ukungayisebenzisi inyukliya
izixhobo, kunye โnokulandela uthethathethwano ngentembeko entle
amanyathelo asebenzayo anxulumene nokupheliswa kogqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya
kwangethuba kunye nokupheliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya, nakwisivumelwano
ukuthotywa kwezixhobo ngokupheleleyo kunye jikelele phantsi kwenkqubo engqongqo nesebenzayo yamazwe ngamazwe
ulawuloโ (Inqaku VI)? Impendulo nguhayi kuwo omabini amacala: yona
ngoku utyityimbiselโ umnwe ngelithi uza kusebenzisa izixhobo ezilolo hlobo nxamnye nalo naliphi na ixhoba
kwaye ayikhange yale kuphela ukusebenzela ukupheliswa kwenyukliya
izixhobo, izenze ngokucacileyo zibe yinxalenye yezixhobo zayo zokulwa
kwaye ichitha iimali ezinkulu ukuze ikwazi ukwenzeka. Amajelo eendaba
Ungaze uxoxe ngalo mbandela, onokuthi wenze i-US ijonge kwi-Iran
iinkqubo zezixhobo zenyukliya zibonakala zingathembekanga kangako.
Ezi ntsilelo zase-US zikwacebisa ukuba imeko efanelekileyo ingaba
yenzelwe i-US โukungathobeliโ i-NPT nokuba a
โuluhlu lwexeshaโ lokungathotyelwa kwayo lunokwakhiwa
oko kuya kutyeba ngakumbi kwaye kubaluleke kakhulu kukhuseleko lwehlabathi
kunoko kumiselweyo malunga nokuziphatha kwe-Iran. Ngapha koko, Iran
akanaso nesinye isixhobo senyukliya, kwaye unelungelo phantsi kwalo
i-NPT yokuphuhlisa isakhono senyukliya ngeenjongo zoxolo (Inqaku
IV); iUnited States inamawaka ezixhobo ezinjalo, ibeka into yokwenene
Usoyikiso lokuzisebenzisa, kwaye ukwaphula ngokuphandle isivumelwano sayo
ukusebenzela ukucutha izixhobo ezikhoyo. (Ngokutsho
kuqikelelo lweNational Resources Defense Council, iUnited
Amazwe aneentloko zenyukliya ezingama-10,600 ukususela ngo-2002โkancinane
ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sehlabathi lilonke.)
Ngaba i-United States kunye no-Israyeli babeka isoyikiso somkhosi e-Iran,
sikhulu kunesoyikiso esiyi-Iran kula mazwe?
Ngaba i-Iran inelungelo lokuzikhusela kwizoyikiso ezinjalo? Ezi
Imiba iphumile kwi-ajenda yenkqubo ye-propaganda, kodwa ngokungacacanga
I-Iran ayinalo ilungelo elinjalo. Lo mgangatho uphindwe kabini ngokucacileyo yinto
oko bekuya kuba nzima ukuxoxa ngokuphandle.
U-Israyeli uphuhlise kwaye wavelisa izixhobo zenyukliya kwaye wasongela
ukuzisebenzisa kunye nokuhlasela i-Iran ukuba ibonisa iimpawu zokusebenzela
ukuphuhliswa kwezixhobo ezinjalo. Ngaba kufanelekile ukuba uSirayeli?
khululeka ukwenza oku kwaye udale kwaye ugcine ukungalingani okukhulu kwamandla
kuMbindi Mpuma kwaye ukwala ukusayina i-NPT, ngelixa i-Iran, leyo
utyikitye isivumelwano kwaye uvumela uhlolo rhoqo kunye nokuphazamiseka,
kufuneka ibe yingqwalasela kwaye ithathwe njengenkohlakalo kuyo nayiphi na
iingxaki zokuhlola? Kwakhona, oku akuxoxiswana kuba kubonakalisa
ucalucalulo olukhulu kunye nomgangatho ophindwe kabini ngcono ugcinwe ufihliwe.
As
kwimeko yase-Iraq, i-UN kunye namahlakani e-NATO aphinde akhetha ukuhlalisa
iGodfather, ukuze endaweni yokugatya umgangatho okrwada ophindwe kabini
benyanzeliswa ngurhulumente onezandla ezidume ngokungahlambulukanga, bona
besokola ukutyhala i-Iran ukuba ivume ukuyiyeka inkululeko yenyukliya
ngokupheleleyo, kwanomsebenzi wokusetyenziswa kwamandla enyukliya ngoxolo
ukuba iUnited States yayikhuthaze i-Iran xa yayilawula ngozwilakhe
umxhasi u-Shah wayephethe.
Inkqubo yenkqubo yokuhlaselwa kwangaphambili kwe-Iran ngeendlela ezininzi ezifanayo
kulowo wayeqeshwe ngexesha lohlaselo lwase-Iraq. Ngalo lonke ixesha
malunga nexesha elifanayo i-United States ithathe i-Iraq,
I-Arhente yaMandla eAthom yaMazwe ngaMazwe (IAEA) iye yacinezela
Iran ukuba iphile ngokwe "zikhuseli" kunye nokusayina kwi
IProtocol eyongezelelweyo ye-NPT (eyayenza ngo-2003). Ingqwalasela
kungoku nje ulawulo lohlolo lwe-IAEA luyijonga โnjengentsalela
imiba engekagqitywa,โ njengoko umlawuli jikelele we-IAEA esitsho
lo mbandela kwinkomfa yakhe yeendaba ye-24 kaSeptemba. Isiphumo siye saba
Uthotho olungapheliyo lovavanyo lwe-IAEA "lokuthobela" kwe-Iran.
nezibophelelo zayo ze-NPT, kudityaniswe nenkcazelo engapheliyo
โyemiba engekahlawulwaโ phambi kwe-IAEA. Le nkqubo
isebenza ngoomatshini beziko, abathi, xa sele beqalile ukusebenza,
njengakwimeko yase-Iraq, yenza ukuba kungenzeki kurhulumente otyholwayo
ukwanelisa izikrokro ezivezwayo malunga nenkqubo yayo yezixhobo. Ngokubalulekileyo,
olu matshini lweziko luvulwa kuphela ukugxila koko kujoliswe kuko
yokhetho luka-Godfather hayi u-Godfather okanye uSirayeli wakhe
umxhasi-nangona u-Godfather ephule ngokuphandle i-NPT,
kwaye umxhasi wayo uyala ukuzenzela phantsi kweso sivumelwano.
Owona โmcimbi useleyoโ phambi kwe-IAEA ngoku,
kunye neWashington kunye ne-EU-3 (eBritani, eFransi,
kunye neJamani) ikwazile ukwenza i-bรชte noire ekhethekileyo
Isisombululo se-IAEA se-24 kaSeptemba-isigqibo sokuqala ukuza kuthi ga ngoku
ukuphakamisa ukuba nokwenzeka kwenkqubo yenyukliya yaseIran
bawela โngaphakathi kobuchule beBhunga lezoKhuseleko, njengoko
ilungu elinoxanduva oluphambili lolondolozo lwehlabathi
uxolo nonqabisekoโโkuphembelela ukungafuni kweIran
ukunikezela ngelungelo lalo phantsi kwe-NPT lokuzibandakanya kumbane wenyukliya
umjikelo. NgoNovemba ka-2004 iSivumelwano saseParis kunye ne-EU-3, i-Iran
yayivumile โukwandisa ukunqunyanyiswa kwayo ukuze kuquke konke ubutyebi
imisebenzi enxulumeneyo kunye nokuhlaziya kwakhona,โ ngelixa ufumana i-EU-3's
ukuqonda ukuba โoku kunqunyanyiswa kukuzithemba ngokuzithandela
umlinganiselo wokwakha hayi isinyanzeliso somthethoโ(INFCIRC/637).
Ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti walo nyaka, i-Iran yazisa i-IAEA ukuba kunjalo
iqala ngokutsha i-Uranium Conversion Facility yayo e-Isfahan, ngaloo ndlela iphelile
ukumiswa kwayo ngokuzithandela kolu ncedo lwe-uranium-etyetyiswe
imisebenzi. Ngoko โuluntu lwamazwe ngamazweโ lukhathazekile
kunye ne-Iran kuba i-Iran ayisavumi ngokuzithandela ukuzibandakanya
kumjikelo wamafutha enyukliya, ekhethe endaweni yoko ukususa ii-IAEA
itywina kwiicentrifuge zayo kwaye iqalise ukuyiqhuba kwakhona. Ukuba ngokugqibeleleyo
icace malunga noku; akukho mntu kwi-IAEA ufumanise ukuba i-Iran yaphula umthetho
yezibophelelo zayo ze-NPT. Endaweni yoko, i-Iran ityholwa ngokusilela
ukuncama ilungelo layo lokubandakanyeka kwimisebenzi apho i-Iran inalo
lonke ilungelo lokuzibandakanya phantsi kwe-NPT. Ukubonakala "kwengxaki"
yenziwe ngenye into ngaphandle koku.
IsiGqibo esamkelwe yiBhodi yeeRhuluneli ye-IAEA ngo
NgoSeptemba 24 ngevoti ye-22 kwi-1 (kunye ne-12 abstentions) yenza ukuba akukho
amabango malunga nokuphulwa kwe-Iranian kwayo nayiphi na imbopheleleko. Kunoko
yayithetha nje ingqumbo yokungafuni kwe-Iran ukuyigcina
ukunqunyanyiswa ngokuzithandela kweZiko loGuqulelo lweUranium e-Isfahan;
oko kukuthi, isigqibo se-Iran sokwenza oko inelungelo lokukwenza
phantsi kwe-NPT. Esi Sigqibo side sisebenzise ibinzana elithi โisiphumo
ukungabikho kokuzithemba ukuba inkqubo yenyukliya yase-Iran yeyodwa
ngeenjongo zoxoloโฆโโilizwi elivakalayo le
Unobhala wezokhuselo wase-US malunga nesityholo
Izixhobo zezixhobo zase-Iraq "ukungabikho kobungqina
ayibobungqina bokungabikhoโ (โUkuphunyezwa koKhuseleko lweNPT
Isivumelwano kwiRiphabhlikhi yamaSilamsi yaseIran,โ iBhodi yeeRhuluneli,
IAEA, ngoSeptemba 24, 2005). Ngezoyikiso zikaGodfather zihlaziywe
ubundlongondlongo, kunye ne-UN kunye noluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe lwaphinda lwathembela
ngaphaya kakhulu umva ukuyicenga, njengakwimeko yase-Iraq, iya kuba njalo
kuba nzima ukuba i-Iran ibuyisele "ukuzithemba" kwiinjongo zayo
kunye nokuthintela umjikelo omtsha wolwaphulo-mthetho oluphezulu.
Njengakwimeko yase-Iraq, kunqabile kakhulu kumajelo eendaba aqhelekileyo ukuba
cebisa naziphi na iinjongo zase-US ezingaphaya kwezo zibhengezwe lulawulo lukaBush
ngokwayoโixhalabele ukunyhashwa kwe-NPT, ubuqhetseba be-Iran
izenzo, kunye nokungabikho kozinzo kunye nenkxaso yenyukliya yabanqolobi.
Ngaba ugxininiso lwase-US lusekelwe kwixhala malunga nomntu osazimele
amandla oyile kuMbindi Mpuma othe waphakamisa nokulungiselela i
enye imarike yekontraka yeoli ngeshishini elenziwe ngeeyuro?
Ngaba inokuba kukuqhubela phambili okulula koko kuqikelelwa kwamandla
ngombuso wama impiriyali onobundlongo-ndlongo ophuma elubala
kunye nokusongela imfazwe engunaphakade nogonyamelo olungapheliyo?
Isitokhwe senyukliya sase-US siqulathe into enye-kwezimbini
iintloko zeemfazwe zesitokhwe sehlabathi kunye ne-United States enazo
ezona nkqubo zintsonkothileyo nezahlukeneyo zonikezelo
izixhobo zayo kuyo nayiphi na indawo, nangaliphi na ixesha. Nokuba ukunika langoku
isibhambathiso sikarhulumente sokunciphisa isitokhwe senyukliya sase-US siye kuma-6,000
Iintloko zemfazwe ngo-2012 (kwaye asikho shushu malunga nelona themba),
ngokwemigaqo yokusebenza ngokupheleleyo, iUnited States lilizwe lehlabathi
amandla ezixhobo zenyukliya ngaphandle koontanga. Ngenxa yoko, uSirayeli uyakholelwa
ukuba neentloko zenyukliya ezingama-200 (nangona kuqikelelwa
ziyahluka), sele igqibile i-nuke yayo yokuqala yokusebenza kwangoko ngo-1967
(ukuba akukho ngaphambili). Kodwa, ngokubaluleke kakhulu, nangona kuphela izixhobo zenyukliya
amandla kuMbindi Mpuma omkhulu, i-Israel ikwalelolizwe kuphela
kummandla ungaze uvumeleke kwi-NPT okanye nakuphi na ukuphinda-phinda
"Khusela"-uhlobo lwezivumelwano apho i-Iran ibanjelwe emgibeni.
Ayizange ingenise kakhulu njengokuhlolwa kwesixhobo esinye.
Akuzange kwenziwe umxholo, ngakumbi ukuba uphindaphinda, we
iinkxalabo non-proliferation ngamazwe ngamazwe, nge
ujoliso kumajelo eendaba, ukoyikiswa kokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunye nedemon yezopolitiko
oko kuhlala kuhamba nayo. Ngokucacileyo, umgaqo-nkqubo wase-US kunye no-Israel
malunga nezixhobo zenyukliya, la mazwe 'athi phithi
ukugcina ukongama kwabo emkhosini ngokuxhobela ngakumbi izixhobo kunye nobundlobongela
Imfazwe kunye nediplomacy, imigaqo-nkqubo yabo yokubonisa amandla kunye "nokukhululwa
zelizwe,โ zona ngokwazo ziyawohloka kwaye ziyagqwesa
kuMbindi Mpuma, kwaye zithembisa ungquzulwano olunobundlobongela obuqhubekayo
kwiminyaka ezayo.
Ukuxhatshazwa kwe-US kunye nokusetyenziswa kakubi kwesimo sokutyikitya kwe-Iran
nge-NPT, kwaye ngoko โizikhuseloโ ezinxulumene ne-NPT kunye
Inkqubo yokuhlola ye-IAEA, ukuhlukumeza i-Iran ngenyukliya yayo
inkqubo kule minyaka mithathu idlulileyo, kunye US eqhubekayo, Israel, kunye
ezinye izoyikiso ezinqumla imida ezijoliswe eIran, zonke zicacile
inxalenye yalo mzamo obanzi woqikelelo lwamandla. Xa sijonga ezi nyaniso,
Kuyahlekisa ukubonisa imigaqo-nkqubo enxulumene nenyukliya yase-Iran njenge
izisongelo โkuxolo nonqabiseko lwehlabathi,โ njengoko
I-US kunye ne-EU-axis yase-Bhritane, iFransi, kunye neJamani yenze.
I-Iran iya kuba lixhoba elilandelayo kwaye isoyikiswa kuphela
ngokuyinxenye ukuyithintela ekuthatheni amanyathelo anokuthi ongeze amandla ayo
ukuzikhusela. Ngaphantsi kwe-NPT, i-Iran ayinako ukuphuhlisa ngokusemthethweni inyukliya
izixhobo zale njongo, kunye naliphi na inani elincinane elinokuthi ngandlela-thile
Ukufumana akuyi kugrogrisa mntu kule minyaka ilishumi izayo nangaphezulu. Nangona kunjalo,
I-Iran lelinye iziko lamandla kuMbindi Mpuma, njenge-Iraq,
kunye nokuyivumela ukuba ikhule kwaye iphumelele ngaphandle kolawulo lwase-US-Israel
ichasene nezicwangciso zokuqikelela amandla. Isisongelo sayo sezixhobo zenyukliya
kungqamana nezixhobo zase-Iraq ezitshabalalisa abantu abaninziโa
ukugquma kunye nengqiqo yobundlobongela kunye nokoyisa.
Ukuba i-UN kunye noluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe lwalulawulwa ngumbono
yobulungisa kunokuba amandla, kwaye ekwaziyo ukuthatha amanyathelo ukuze
baya kuzikhusela kuzo zonke izisongelo zoxolo nonqabiseko
angasoyikisi i-Iran ngokuthumela kwiBhunga lezoKhuseleko
inkqubo yenyukliya engekho semthethweni okanye esebenza ngokubonakalayo
nayiphi na enye ngaphandle kwenjongo yoxolo. Kunoko, babeza kuhlasela
I-United States kunye ne-Israel kwaye zibanyanzele ukuba bazilahle
Ukuma okusongelayo ukuya eIran kunye nokuqalisa ukuphila ngokweleta
kunye nomoya weSivumelwano sokuNgena-Proliferation-i-US ngokusebenza
malunga nokuthotywa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kunye namaSirayeli ngokuvuma kwi-NPT
ngelixa esenza ngokunjalo. Ingaba sithetha ngokuhlasela kwangaphambili
I-Iraq okanye i-Iran namhlanje, izinto eziphambili kwi-UN kunye namazwe ngamazwe
Uluntu alulahlekiswanga kakubi nje kuphelaโngokusisiseko
ekungavisisani nenjongo yoxolo nonqabiseko. Ngaphezu koko, bona
bafikelele kweli nqanaba liyingozi ngesizathu esinye ngaphezu kwazo zonke: i
ukuqweqwediswa kwamaziko aqinisekileyo kumazwe ngamazwe ngamagunya amakhulu
bazibophelele ekubaxhaphazeni ukuze bafezekise iinjongo zabo elinye.
Apho izixhobo zenyukliya zixhalatyelwe, ekuphela kwenjongo esengqiqweni phezu
ixesha elide kukupheliswa kwabo kwaye urhulumente ngamnye unikezela
yaloo nxalenye yolawulo lwayo olugubungela amandla enyukliya kwi
ulawulo lwe-arhente yezizwe ngezizwe ekwaziyo ukuqinisekisa
ukuba amandla enyukliya afakโ isandla โeluxolweni, kwimpilo nakwimpumelelo
ehlabathini lonke,โ yaye โayisetyenziswa ngolo hlobo
ukuqhubela phambili nayiphi na injongo yomkhosiโ (apha kucaphula ii-IAEA's
Umthetho owasekwa ngowe-1956โโiathom zoxoloโ
umbono). Kuyo nayiphi na imigangatho yeenkxalabo, umngcipheko
uphuhliso lwezixhobo zenyukliya ngabantu abangenawo amazwe luse
uninzi lwenkxalabo yodidi lwesibini; kunoko, bubutyebi benyukliya
izixhobo zabatyebileyo ezihlala ziyinkxalabo egqwesileyo.
Ukuze i-IAEA okanye nawuphi na umbutho wamazwe amaninzi iqhube
Imicimbi ngokoluhlu oluhlukeneyo lweenkxalabo lubonisa indlela
ilahlekile kwaye yezopolitiko. Apho iingxelo zeendaba kunye namagqabantshintshi
malunga nezixhobo zenyukliya ezinobuncwane kunye nabangenazo zixhalabile, zethu
amaphepha-ndaba kunye namajelo kamabonakude e-cable angcatsha olu tshintsho lwe
izinto eziphambili mihla le. Kodwa asikho isizathu esibambekayo sokulindela
izixhobo zenyukliya azinakuzisukela izixhobo zenyukliya
imeko yamazwe ngamazwe apho i-has at one kunye
kwangaxeshanye wabagrogrisa ngoxa engavumi ukukhulula izixhobo.
Kukuziphatha kwezixhobo zenyukliya eziphazamisayo
kwaye isongela uxolo nokhuseleko lwezizwe ngezizwe, kwanokusinda.
Kwimbono yehlabathi elinoxolo ngakumbi, likhululwe kwi
ulawulo lobundlobongela, lungaphezu kwazo zonke izixhobo zenyukliya
oko kufuneka kuthintelwe kwaye kuthintelwe.
Edward
S. Herman yingcali yezoqoqosho, umgxeki weendaba, kunye nombhali wamanqaku amaninzi
kunye neencwadi. UDavid Peterson ngumbhali kunye nomphandi ozimeleyo.