โ INGXELO EZIZODWA KUQOQOSHO โ
Ungaphandle kokuba uhlala kwiqamza, njengoGeorge Bush, owavakalisa ukumangala ngokupheleleyo ngoFebruwari xa intatheli yamxelela ukuba irhasi yayisondela kwi-$4 igaloni, uye wafakwa iikawusi ezinzima epokothweni ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ibonakala kakhulu kwivenkile enkulu-ngokweBureau of Labor Statistics, ixabiso legaloni yobisi liye latsiba ngeepesenti ezili-17 kwaye amaqanda alishumi elinesibini axhume ipesenti ezingama-40 kulo nyaka uphelileyo kwaye isonka sinyuke phantse ngama-30 ekhulwini. iminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Kwimpompo yegesi i-avareji kazwelonke yepetroli eqhelekileyo yaphawula irekhodi le-$ 3.63 igaloni ekuqaleni kukaMeyi, kabini ukusuka kwi-2005, kwaye kubonakala ngathi kuya kuphula umqobo we-$ 4 kweli hlobo.
Okumangalisayo njengoko kunyuka kwamaxabiso abathengi, isiphithiphithi kutshintshiselwano lwemveliso, apho abarhwebi bathethathethana ngamaxabiso "ekamva" (kunye neemveliso zezimali ezinxulumeneyo ezaziwa ngokuba "ziinketho") zicaca ngakumbi. IKomishoni yoRhwebo lweXesha loRhwebo (i-CFTC), kusasazo lwewebhu loluntu olungazange lubonwe ngaphambili, yabamba iindibano zovakaliso-zimvo ngomhla wama-22 ku-Epreli iphonononga ukuba kutheni amaxabiso emveliso yezolimo enyuka ngamandla. Yathi, "Kwiinyanga ezintathu ezidlulileyo, ingqolowa, umbona, iimbotyi zesoya, irayisi kunye ne-oats ziye zabetha ixesha elide."
Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, amaxabiso engqolowa anyuke ngama-95 epesenti, iimbotyi zesoya zinyuke ngama-88 epesenti, umbona unyuke ngama-66 epesenti, kwaye irayisi yodidi lweThai B, umlinganiselo worhwebo wehlabathi, uphele ngo-2007 malunga ne-$360 yetoni yemetriki. Yabetha i-760 yeedola ekupheleni kuka-Matshi kwaye yaqhubeka nokunyuka kwayo okumangalisayo ukuya kwi-1,080 yeedola ngaphantsi kwenyanga kamva. Ngaphezulu koko, ikamva le-oli ekrwada liphindeke ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabini ukusukela ngoJanuwari ka-2007, liza ngaphakathi kweenwele ze-120 yeedola ngomphanda ngo-Epreli.
Omnye umba omangalisayo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezithengiswayo kukuba xa itshatiwe, ikhangeleka ifana ne-Internet stock mania kwiminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo okanye iitshathi zokunyuka (kunye nokuhla) kwamaxabiso asekhaya kade. Oku akuyonto nje yamabona-ndenzile. Enye yezinto eziphambili ekukhawuleziseni iindleko zempahla yorhwebo kunye nokutya kukuqikelelwa kwemali. Iibhanki ezifanayo zeWall Street kunye neemali zeheji ezisinike iqamza lestokhwe kunye neqamza lezindlu kuthiwa ziphosa iibhiliyoni zeedola kwiimarike zorhwebo, ukubheja banokwenza irandi ekhawulezayo. Omnye umhlalutyi udliwano-ndlebe ngu Wall Street Journal Iqikelela ukuba "abatyali-zimali bagalele malunga ne-175 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuya kwi-200 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwiimali zesalathiso ezinxibelelene nempahla ukususela ngo-2001." I Journal wachaza, "Njengeemarike zamandla kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, iingxowa-mali zomhlalaphantsi kunye neengxowa-mali ze-hedge ziye zathontelana kutyalo-mali oluziinkozo njengoko unikezelo lwe-acreage yeefama kunye nemveliso yezityalo iyancipha ngokumalunga nokukhula kwabemi behlabathi kunye neemfuno ezintsha zezityalo ze-biofuels kunye nokutya. Ezininzi ezinjalo abatyali-mali benza ukubheja kakhulu," oko kukuthi, balindele ukuba ixabiso linyuke.
Ukuguquguquka kwemihla ngemihla kutshintshiselwano lwempahla yorhwebo ngamanye amaxesha kukhulu kunokuba bekusenzeka unyaka wonke. NgoFebruwari 25 kuphela, eMinneapolis Grain Exchange, olunye uhlobo lwengqolowa lwatsiba ama-29 ekhulwini. Ngosuku nje olunye ngoMatshi, "ixabiso lomqhaphu litsibe ngeepesenti ezili-15 ngaphandle kweengxelo ezibonisa ukuba iimpahla zomqhaphu bezikwirekhodi eliphezulu," ngokutsho. Toronto Globe kunye Mail. Ngexesha leendibano ze-CFTC, abavelisi bempahla yorhwebo babeke ityala lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kumnyango wabathengi. Ummeli weNational Grain and Feed Association wangqina, "Amashumi amathandathu eepesenti kwimarike yangoku [yengqolowa] iphethwe yi-index fund. Ngokucacileyo loo nto inempembelelo kwimarike, "ngelixa umvelisi wekotoni wathi, "Imarike yaphukile, iphelile."
Ukuba kukho oyena nobangela, yimarike. Kukho intetho eninzi malunga nokukhula kokusetyenziswa kunye nokuwa kwezibonelelo zokutya kunye namandla, kodwa uninzi lwedatha luyaphikisana nala mabango. Ngokomzekelo, phezu kwayo nje imbalela yaseOstreliya, umkhenkce nekhephu kulo lonke elaseTshayina, nobusika obubandayo nobumanzi kwibhaskithi yesonka yaseMerika, iUN Food and Agricultural Organization ilungiselela ukuveliswa kweepali ehlabathini lonke ngowama-2007-2008 kwande ngeetoni ezizizigidi ezingama-92 ukusa kwi-2.102 yezigidigidi. iitoni. Kodwa phantse lonke olu lwando luvela kwirekhodi yesivuno sombona wase-US, esondla imarike ye-biofuels.
Ngokwenyani, abaqikeleli abakhulu abasuka kwiibhanki zaseWall Street kunye neemali zeheji ukuya kwiinkampani zeoyile kunye nezikhulu zeshishini lezolimo zenza ukubulala kwiimveliso zorhwebo. Abahlalutyi bathi abanye abadlali banokukhohlisa iimarike, kodwa oku kunzima kakhulu ukukungqina kuba ukongamela ezi marike kubuyiselwe umva ngabom. Sekunjalo, amacandelo amaninzi abonakala esenza ingeniso ngokuphandle. Oku kuquka abaqikeleli, kodwa kudlulele nakwabathengisi bokutya, abavelisi bokutya, kunye nabavelisi bezichumiso. Enye yezinto ezixakayo ngale meko ikhoyo kukuba nanjengoko ingeniso yamafama isanda ngokukrakra, ngakumbi eUnited States, baphulukana nengeniso ngenxa yokuxinezeleka kweemalike zemveliso.
Ukunqongophala kokutya okuziinkozo kuxhaphakile ngenxa yokuba ingeniso yabaqikeleli ngokoqobo iza ngeendleko zamahlwempu ehlabathi. Kuye kwenzeka izidubedube ngokutya eYiputa, eCameroon, eBurkina Faso, eMauritania, eIvory Coast, eSenegal nase-Ethiopiaโamazwe apho abantu abaninzi bachitha isiqingatha somvuzo wabo okanye ngaphezulu ekutyeni (xa kuthelekiswa nabangaphantsi kwe-10 ekhulwini kubantu baseMerika). Owona mqondiso ucacileyo wokunqongophala kwezinto ubonwa kumazwe afana neHaiti apho, njengoko amaxabiso erayisi enyuka ngokumangalisayo, amahlwempu aye abhenela kwiikeyiki zodaka ezenziwe ngeoli neswekile ukuze aziphilise.
URaj Patel, umbhali we Ukuhlutha kwaye Ulambile, uthi, "Ngokucacileyo lulwaphulo-mthetho oluchasene noluntu ukuba olu hlobo lwentelekelelo yezemali luvunyelwe ukuba luqhubeke. Yinto enye ukuba nentelekelelo ngexabiso lewijethi okanye iinxalenye zemoto, kodwa enye into yokuba neengcamango kumthombo wobomi bomntu ... . Oku kufanele kube sisilumkiso sokusinceda siqonde ukuba ukutya akuyonto yorhwebo, lilungelo lomntu. Kwintetho ye-2 ka-Epreli, uMongameli weBhanki yehlabathi uRobert Zoellick waphawula ukuba amaxabiso okutya "aye anyuka ngeepesenti ze-80" ukususela ngo-2005, kwaye "amazwe angama-33 kwihlabathi jikelele ajongene nezidubedube ezinokuthi zibekho ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya namandla." Kwiiveki ezimbalwa kamva, iWorld Food Programme yabiza amaxabiso aphakamileyo okutya ngokuthi โyitsunami ethuleyoโ esele ifake abantu abaqikelelwa kwi-100 lezigidi nzulu kubuhlwempu neyayisongela โukuba abantu abangaphezu kwe-100 lezigidi kwilizwekazi ngalinye baya kulamba.
EUnited States, le meko imbi kakhulu, ukuba ayimbi njengehlabathi elisakhasayo. ISebe lezoLimo laseMelika liqikelela ukuba i-12.1 yepesenti yabantu baseMelika, okanye abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-35, bafumana "ukungakhuseleki kokutya" ngo-2006. Usuku lonke. (De ulawulo lukaBush lutshintshe iinkcazo, oku bekwaziwa ngokuba "yindlala.") Iingxelo ezivela kumaziko eendaba, iindawo zokugcina ukutya, kunye neendawo zokuphekela isuphu zibonisa ukuba ukungabikho kokutya kuyanda, okubangelwa kukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya namandla, kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya kunye namandla. uqoqosho oludodobalayo, ukuhla kwamaxabiso ezindlu, nokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwentswela-ngqesho. Abantu abaninzi baseMelika abanemivuzo ephantsi, ngakumbi abadla umhlala-phantsi kwimivuzo emiselweyo, bayanyanzeleka ukuba bakhethe phakathi kokutya, ukuhlala ushushu, okanye ukuthenga amayeza kagqirha.
Olunye lweempawu eziphazamisayo zokuphelelwa ngamandla kwezoqoqosho kukuba abantu abaninzi baseMelika bathengisa izinto zabo ukuze "bahlangabezane neendleko eziphezulu zegesi, ukutya kunye namayeza amiselweyo," ngokutsho kwe-Associated Press. Ubungqina obuqinileyo buvela kwiiwebhusayithi ezifana neCraigslist apho inani lentengiso yokuthengisa ukusuka ngoMatshi ka-2008 "liphindwe kabini ukuya phantse kwi-15 yezigidi ukusuka kwixesha lonyaka odlulileyo" kwaye zihlala zikhatshwa zizibongozo ezinje, "Nceda uthenge nantoni na Nceda pha."
I-Inflation Equation
Uukuqonda ubume noonobangela bokunyuka kwamaxabisoโxa amaxabiso enyuka ngokukhawuleza kwaye amandla okuthenga ehlaโkunzima ukuqonda kuba kukho umsantsa phakathi kwamava abantu bemihla ngemihla kunye nebali elisemthethweni. Kangangeminyaka amagosa karhulumente ebevakalisa ngokuzolileyo ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso โkuphantsi kolawulo.โ Urhulumente uxela ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwabathengi kuye kwaba malunga neepesenti ze-2-3 kwiminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo kwaye uye waxhuma phantse kwiipesenti ezi-4 kwiinyanga ezi-6 zokugqibela. Abanye oosoqoqosho, kubandakanywa nabasebenzisa i-website ye-Shadow Government Statistics, bathi izinga lokwenyuka kwamaxabiso lingaphezulu kweepesenti ezisi-8 kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo kwaye isondele kwi-12 ekhulwini okwangoku. (Bathi esinye isizathu sokuba urhulumente asebenzise isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kukunciphisa uhlengahlengiso lweendleko zokuphila ekufuneka lwenziwe kwiintlawulo zoKhuseleko lweNtlalo.)
Naliphi na inani lezizathu ezibekiweyo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso eemveliso kunye nokutya: ukuncipha koluhlu lweenkozo, ukusetyenziswa okukhulu kweemveliso zezilwanyana e-Asiya, ukwanda kwabemi behlabathi, ukufudumala kwehlabathi, i-biofuels, imida yendalo, intelekelelo yezemali, idola ehlayo, i-crude ekhulayo. amaxabiso eoyile, imigaqo-nkqubo yeBhanki yehlabathi kunye ne-IMF, ukugcinwa kwemali, izithintelo zokuthumela ngaphandle, nokunye. Ngandlelโ ithile, zonke ezi zinto zikhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso. Kodwa asiyongxubakaxaka yezizathu; kukho imixokelelwane embalwa ebalulekileyo ye-causal kunye ne-feedback loops emva kwesiphithiphithi. Xa sithetha ngokubanzi, imeko yoqoqosho lwehlabathiโindima yoqikelelo lwemali, ukulahlwa kokutya okuncediswayo okuvela kumafama aseNtshona kumazwe ahlwempuzekileyo kunyanzeleke ukuba โakhululeโ amacandelo awo ezolimo, ukuhla kwedola, kunye nemarike yeoli eshushu ngokugqithisileyoโkungoko amaxabiso enyuka. bayadubula. Into edibanisa yonke le miba yipolitiki. Sisigqibo sezopolitiko ukuvumela intelekelelo exhaphakileyo kwizinto zorhwebo; sisigqibo sezopolitiko ukucutha ukulawulwa korhwebo lweempahla; sisigqibo sezopolitiko ukuthoba ixabiso ledola ngokunyusa intsilelo kunye nokunciphisa inzala; sisigqibo sezopolitiko ukunyanzela amazwe ahluphekayo ukuba achithe inkxaso yecandelo lawo lokufama; sisigqibo sezopolitiko ukunyanzela amahlwempu ukuba athenge ukutya kwindawo yentengiso, endaweni yokwenza ukufikelela ekutyeni kube lilungelo loluntu elisisiseko.
UkuBuyela kweMalthus
MUninzi lwengxoxo-mpikiswano luxhomekeke kwezopolitiko ngokuchasene nemida yendalo. Le ngxoxo iqala ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-200 ukuya kuThomas Malthus ka-1798 "Isincoko soMgaqo-siseko wabemi," apho waxoxa khona, njengoko uJohn Bellamy Foster esitsho, "Kukho uxinzelelo oluqhubekayo lwabemi ngokuchasene nonikezelo lokutya oluhlala lusebenza kwaye luya kuqhuba. soloko ndisebenza." Ngaphandle kokubuyisela ingxoxo kumakhulu eminyaka (Isincoko sikaFoster sika-1998 ku Ukuhlaziywa ngenyanga, "Isincoko sikaMalthus malunga nabemi abakwiminyaka engama-200: Umbono kaMarxian," yintshayelelo egqwesileyo), kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba isabalulekile namhlanje. Abantu abaninzi abathetha ngemida yendalo-efana ne "oli ephezulu" okanye "incopho yokutya" isihlwele-ngabantu abatsha baseMalthusi. Bahlala bebonisa ubutshaba kumahlwempu afana noMalthus, owabhala, "Asikwazi, kwimeko yezinto, ukuncedisa amahlwempu, nangayiphi na indlela, ngaphandle kokubenza bakwazi ukukhulisa ebudodeni inani elikhulu labantwana babo."
Abanye ababandakanyekayo kwingxoxo-mpikiswano namhlanje, abanjengoLester Brown kunye neWorld Watch Institute, banyathela kufutshane nomgca weMalthusian belumkisa "ngengxaki yabemi" kwaye bephikisana ukuba sesona sizathu sibangela ukuba amaxabiso eemveliso anyuke. Phezu kwako nje ukuthetha ngokunyuka koncedo lokutyaโoluquka ukuthenga ukutya okuxhaswe ngakumbi kwaseNtshona kuze kulahlwe kumazwe ahlwempuzekileyo, ngaloo ndlela kujongela phantsi ukhuseleko lwawo lokutya ngokutshonisa amafama amancinane angakwaziyo ukukhuphisana nokutya kwasimahlaโkukho umnqweno wokuvumela amahlwempu afe en. abaninzi ngokubambelela kwi-ajenda yeniyoliberal.
Kakade ke, kukho imida kuyo yonke intoโukutya, abemi, amandla. Kodwa njengoko uMarx ephikisana Grundrisse, ukugqithiswa kwabantu "bubudlelwane obumiselwe ngokwembali, akukho ndlela inqunywe ngamanani angabonakaliyo okanye umda opheleleyo wemveliso yezinto eziyimfuneko ebomini, kodwa yimida ebekwe yimiqathango ethile yokuvelisa." Yile mida ibekiweyo-efana nokuveliswa kwe-biofuel kunye nentelekelelo-engunobangela wengxaki yokutya yehlabathi.
Kwelinye icala, kukho iqhinga lokubeka ityala kumazwe asakhasayo ngako kokubini ingxaki yokutya nepetroli. ITshayina neIndiya, noqoqosho lwazo oluhambela phambili, zigqalwa njengonobangela wokunyuka kwemfuno yaye ngaloo ndlela zicutheka izixa zokutya namandla. I-Indiya kunye ne-China yabemi kunye nokutya kwekhalori kuyanda, ngakumbi inyama kunye neemveliso zobisi. Kodwa lo ngumkhuba othabatha amashumi eminyaka. Akukho ndlela yokuba ukukhula okuthe gqolo kwiminyaka engama-20 okanye engama-30 kunokubangela ukuba amaxabiso eemveliso aphindeke kabini ngonyaka okanye 2. ikhule nge-1990 calories, okanye i-2003 calories ngonyaka. (Ngeli xesha linye, ukuthathwa komndilili waseMelika kunyuke ngeekhalori ezingama-155.) Kwangaxeshanye, nangona iimeko zemozulu ezimbi ezifana nokungaphumeleli kwezityalo ezinkulu eOstreliya, imveliso yeecereal zehlabathi iye yanda. Inxalenye yale ngxaki, uthi uRaj Patel, ngolunye uqikelelo, "i-12 yezigidi zeetoni zeenkozo zondliwa kwizilwanyana kunyaka ophelileyo kwaye oko bekuya kugubungela intsilelo yokutya okwangoku izihlandlo ezili-231."
Ishishini le-biofuels belizimisele ukugxeka i-China. "Uphononongo" luka-Aprili ka-2008 olupapashwe ngu I-Biofuels Digest yayinomxholo othi "Ukutya kweNyama yaseTshayina Okubangela ukunqongophala kweenkozo zehlabathi." Kodwa uphononongo luzichasile kuba lufumanise ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwenyama yaseTshayina kunyuke ngeeponti ezisixhenxe zizonke ukusuka kwi-2000 ukuya ku-2007, ukunyuka kwe-miniscule. Kwaesi sicwangciso sinye sokugxeka i-China ne-Indiya sisetyenziselwa ukuxhoma ingxaki yamandla kunye nokufudumala kwehlabathi kwiintamo zabo. ITshayina neIndiya zisebenzisa imiphanda emalunga nezigidi ezili-10 ngosuku kwimveliso yepetroleum. Kodwa eso sisiqingatha sokusetyenziswa kwe-US ye-20.6 MBD kwaye baphantse babe ngama-8 abantu abaphakathi kwabo.
Ibhaqa "Dot-Corn".
Ikulimo lwemizi-mveliso apho unxibelelwano phakathi kwamandla kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya luthi lubonakale. Ukutya esikutyayo ngokwenene ziihydrocarbons ezifana neoyile. I-oyile isetyenziselwa imichiza yokubulala izinambuzane kunye nemichiza yokutyala, ukuvuna, kunye neenkozo zokugaya, ukuvelisa iimveliso zokutya, ukukuthutha kunye nokugxotha ekhaya ukusuka kwivenkile enkulu. Ioyile yeyona nto iphambili kwimveliso yenyama njengoko izilwanyana zikhuliswa ngokutya okuziinkozo. Ngaphezulu koku, isichumiso, inkuthazo yezolimo kwimizi-mveliso, iveliswa ikakhulu kwirhasi yendalo, nayo ethe yanyuka amaxabiso. Ngedizili engaphezulu kwe-4 yeegaloni esele, amashishini agqithisa iindleko ngekhonkco lempahla kubathengi (kunye nabaqhubi beelori). Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eqanda kuye kwagqithisa kwaye kukho ibali elinomdla. I-avareji yenkukhu ebeka amaqanda ngonyaka iya kuvelisa amaqanda angama-276 kwaye idle i-83 pounds yokutya, i-quarter-quarter yayo ingumbona.
Ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli, kuye kwakho i-boom kwi-biofuels efana ne-ethanol esekwe kumbona. NgoDisemba ophelileyo, uMongameli Bush wasayina umthetho ogunyazisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-36 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni ze-biofuels ngo-2020. Ehlotyeni lika-2006, xa ingqolowa yayiyi-2 yeedola kunye ne-oyile ye-70 ye-barrel, abavelisi be-ethanol balinganisa i-$ 1.06 kwinzuzo kwigaloni nganye ethengisiweyo. Kodwa ke, amaxabiso ombona aphindwe kabini ukuya kwi-4 yeedola kunyaka ophelileyo kwaye aphule nje i-6 yeedola ngo-Epreli. Amafama akuMbindi-ntshona ahlekisa ngeqamza "le-dot-corn" njengoko uninzi lwabo (kunye nababoneleli babo) befumana imali, kodwa kuye wonke umntu, kubandakanywa abavelisi be-ethanol, ibe yintlekele. Uhlalutyo olwahlukeneyo lubonisa ukuba i-ethanol egalelwe umbona isebenzisa amandla amaninzi ukuvelisa kunokuba ibonelela. Ikwayi-greenhouse gas emitter embi kune-oyile ekrwada kwaye inyusa iindleko zesondlo kubafuyi beenkomo, amafama eehagu, kunye nabavelisi bamaqanda, sisizathu esikhulu sokuba amaqanda abize kakhulu.
Iziphumo ziya phambili nangoku. Isiraphu yombona okanye yombona isetyenziswa kwikota yesithathu yako konke ukutya okugayiweyo, ukusuka kwisonka, iitships, kunye nesoda ukuya kwibhotolo yamandongomane, i-oatmeal, kunye nokunxitywa kwesaladi. Ifumaneka nakwii-diapers kunye neebhetri zeseli ezomileyo, oku kuthetha ukuba amawaka eemveliso afumana uxinzelelo lwamaxabiso aphezulu. Umbona uphazamisa imveliso yezolimo njengoko amafama ase-US etshintshe umhlaba wezityalo owenziwe umbona kwaye alime i-soya encinci kunye nengqolowa. Ngowama-2007, i-24 pesenti yesityalo sombona, malunga neebhiliyoni ezi-3.2 zeebhiliyoni, yenziwa i-ethanol.
Ixabiso lengqolowa liye lanyuka, lonyuswa yidola ebuthathaka, iimpahla eziwayo, kunye noqikelelo. Ixabiso leoli yeembotyi zesoya liyakhula, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwayo kwi-biodiesel. Ngo-Agasti 2007, "i-376.2 yezigidi zeepounds zeoyile yesoya zazisetyenziselwa ukuveliswa kwe-bio-diesel, i-akhawunti ye-20.6 yeepesenti yokusetyenziswa kwenyanga yeoli ye-soya yase-US," ngokutsho kweYunivesithi yase-Illinois. Emva kokutyala umbona omninzi kulo nyaka uphelileyo, abanye abalimi baseMelika batshintshela kwezinye izityalo, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba umbona onxanelwe ioyile, nokuba ukwi-6 yeedola ngebhasi, ubona imida yawo inxinyiwe kukunyuka kweendleko zesichumiso nedizili.
I-Oli Factor
Ramaxabiso ombane ngowona mba uphambili ekunyukeni kweendleko zemveliso yezolimo. Kodwa kusekho umba wokuba kutheni amaxabiso e-oyile ephantse anyuke kahlanu ukususela ngo-2002. Kukho iingcaciso ezintathu eziphambili: ukubonelela kunye nemfuno, intelekelelo, kunye nomgaqo-mali karhulumente wase-US. I-White House kunye neengcali ezininzi zikhomba ekuboneleleni nasekufuneni ngenxa yokuba ibonakaliswe njengomthetho wendalo wezoqoqosho ongaphaya kolawulo lwakhe nabani na. Ngokwale mbono iTshayina, iIndiya kunye namanye amazwe asakhasayo ngawona abekekโ ityala. Ewe, ukusetyenziswa eTshayina naseIndiya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza, njengoko kunjalo namazwe akuMbindi Mpuma azele yioli. Kodwa ukusuka ku-2002 ukuya ku-2006, nanjengoko amaxabiso e-oyile aphindaphindeka kathathu, imveliso ye-oyile yehlabathi iqhubekile nemfuno ngokunyusa imiphanda ye-7.6 yezigidi ngosuku ukuya kwi-84.6 MBD. Ukukhula kwemfuno nako kuye kwacotha ukuya kwi-1.1 yezigidi zebhareli ngosuku ukunyuka konyaka ukusuka ku-2005 ukuya ku-2008. Oku kuthelekiswa nokunyuka kwe-3 MBD kwi-2004 kuphela.
Okungakumbi, i-OPEC ibhengeze ukuthotywa kwemveliso okuninzi kulo nyaka uphelileyo kuba ifuna ukugcina amaxabiso eoyile ephezulu. Ke ukuba kusithiwa sifumana imida yendalo yokuveliswa kweoyile, kutheni le nto imveliso icuthwa? Abaphathiswa belizwe le-OPEC babhengeza esidlangalaleni ukuba bafuna ukugcina ixabiso leoli liphezulu ngenxa yokuhla kwexabiso ledola. Idola ehlayo ibangelwa zizinto ezimbini eziphambili: urhwebo lwase-US kunye nokusilela kwebhajethi ye-federal.
Kukho nomba "womthamo ogqithisileyo." I-cushion phakathi kwemveliso kunye nokusetyenziswa kwehle kakhulu kule minyaka mithandathu idlulileyo, nto leyo eye yadala i-hiccups yokubonelela kunye namaxabiso aphezulu. Noko ke, unobangela asiyomida yejoloji, kodwa ngomnye umba: Umgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle wase-US. Ulawulo lukaBush luye lwaphazamisa abavelisi abathathu abaphambili be-oyile abaye baphelelwa yimveliso kwiminyaka yakutshanjeโi-Iran, i-Iraq, neVenezuela.
Izinto zokwakha zezoqoqosho lwale mihla ziquka yonke into ukususela kumalahle, ioli, iinkuni, igolide, ubhedu ukuya kutsho kumqhaphu, ubisi, umbona, iinkomo neswekile. Abavelisi bafuna izinto zorhwebo ukuze bavelise izinto ezigqityiweyo ngelixa abathengi beqhele ukudibana neemveliso kwivenkile yegrosari. Urhwebo lwezinto ezithengiswayo, ezinje ngemfuyo, luqale kumaxesha amandulo, kodwa imakethi โyekamvaโ yanamhlanje yasekwa eChicago ngeminyaka yoo-1840. Apho, kwibhodi yokurhweba, iimpahla zilungelelaniswa ngokwe "ubuninzi, umgangatho, inyanga yokuhanjiswa, kunye nemimiselo," ngelixa abahwebi baxoxisana ngamaxabiso kunye neemali zekhontrakthi. Ngokufanelekileyo, le nkqubo, ngokuthenga kunye nokuthengisa iikontraka zexesha elizayo, ivumela abalimi ukuba baqikelele ukuba batyale ntoni ngokusekelwe kumaxabiso exesha elizayo ombona kunye nengqolowa ngelixa umbhaki we-industrial-scale okwazi ukuvalela amaxabiso omgubo, ibhotolo kunye neswekile kwiinyanga kwangaphambili.
Emva kokuba iqamza le-Intanethi ligqabhukile ngo-2000, iFed yehlisa inzala ukuya kwimbali esezantsi, eyonyusa isixa semali ebolekiweyo kunye nesixa semali ejikelezayo. Oku kwaziwa njengokunyuka kwamaxabiso emali. Okwenzekayo kukunyuka kwemali ngesantya esikhawulezayo kunokuveliswa kweempahla neenkonzo. Xa iidola ezininzi ngakumbi zikhuphisana ngezi mpahla kunye neenkonzo, umphumo kukunyuka kwamaxabiso okungenakuphepheka. Umzekelo wendlela oku kusebenza ngayo ikhonkco phakathi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli kunye nokunciphisa inzala ye-Fed. Ukusukela oko i-Fed yaqala ukuthoba amaxabiso ngoSeptemba ophelileyo, idola iye yawela kwi-euro, i-oyile inyuke ngaphezulu kwe-40 yeedola umphanda kunye negolide, ngaxa lithile, malunga ne-300 yeedola i-ounce. I-Fed ikwandisa ukunikezelwa kwemali, oku kuthetha ukuba ngoku kukho iidola ezininzi ezijikelezayo kunangaphambili ngokumelene ne-euro, ngoko idola liwela ixabiso. Njengoko idola isihla xa ithelekiswa neyuro, amazwe avelisa ioli afuna iidola ezingakumbi ngomphanda.
Enye into yokunyuka kwamaxabiso yintsilelo yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali, eye yaphindaphindeka kabini phantsi kwewotshi kaBush, kunye nentsilelo yorhwebo. Ukuzinzisa "ibhalansi yeakhawunti yangoku," iUnited States idinga ukungena malunga ne-1 yetriliyoni yeedola ngonyaka ukwenza umahluko. Iidola ziyaphuma ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwethu ngokugqithisileyo kunye nenkcitho egqithisileyo kurhulumente, ngelixa utyalo-mali lungena ukuze kuthengwe amashishini, abathengi kunye namatyala karhulumente. Ukuphuma kweedola, nangona kunjalo, kunciphisa ixabiso ledola. Intsilelo yorhwebo iqhuba malunga neebhiliyoni ezingama-58 zeerandi ngenyanga. Ngaphezulu kwesibini kwisithathu saloo nto iya kuhlawulela i-12.5 yezigidi zemiphanda yeoli evela kumazwe angaphandle esiyisebenzisa yonke imihla. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli kuye kwaba yingxelo ekhohlakeleyo. Njengoko amaxabiso eoyile enyuka enyuka kwaye iidola ziphuma, ixabiso ledola liyehla, nto leyo ekhuthaza umjikelo olandelayo wokunyuka kwexabiso leoli, ukuphuma okukhulu kweedola, kunye nokuhla kwexabiso.
Kukho enye into ekungafane kuthethwe ngayo, ngaphandle koshicilelo lwezemali-uqikelelo, oluthi "lukhulise" ukuhamba kwexabiso. Emva kokuba i-bubble ye-Intanethi ivele, iibhanki ezininzi zotyalo-mali kunye neengxowa-mali ze-hedge zaqala ukuqikelela kwiimveliso. Abaqikeleli, xa bethenga isivumelwano sexesha elizayo, benza imfuno. Kodwa abanamdla wokufumana izisu zenyama yehagu okanye amalahle. Bafuna nje ukwenza imali ngokukhawuleza. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka kakhulu, izinto zorhwebo ziba lutyalo-mali olunomtsalane kuba zinyuka amaxabiso ngokukhawuleza. Kodwa uqikelelo lugqibezela i-loop yengxelo ngokwenza ukunyuka kwexabiso kuphephe kwaye kutsale abaqikeleli abaninzi.
Lo ngumba ophambili kwiimarike zeoyile. Ngo-2004 i ENew York Times Wabalisa esinye isiqendu esiqikelelwayo: โXa uluhlu lwempahla oluphantsi kunye neendaba zokuhlaselwa ngogonyamelo kwabaphathi beoli kunye nezakhiwo zaseSaudi Arabia zaqhubela phambili ikamva leoli, abahlalutyi bayanda, ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi beemarike. ngokunyuka okuqhubekayo, njalo njalo kwi-classic spiral." Nkqu nentloko ye-Exxon, kwinkomfa yabezindaba nge-5 kaMatshi, yavuma ukuba intelekelelo yinto enkulu. Ngokwewebhusayithi yeendaba zezemali iMarketwatch, i-CEO uRex Tillerson ubize ixabiso elonyuka "liphambene kakhulu" kwaye wathi, "I-akhawunti yedola ebuthathaka malunga nesithathu serekhodi yamva nje eqhutywa kumaxabiso eoli, enye isithathu kukungaqiniseki kwezopolitiko kunye nezinye kwiimarike. intelekelelo."
I-Enron Loophole
WUmnqwazi wenze ukuba uqikelelo lwentengiso yeoli lube nokwenzeka ngumthetho owapasiswa kwiintsuku ezinciphayo zolawulo lukaClinton. Ngokomyalelo weenkampani zokurhweba ngamandla ezifana ne-Enron, inkqubo yokurhweba nge-elektroniki yesithunzi yadalwa eyavumela abaqikeleli ukuba barhwebe ngezivumelwano zexesha elizayo ze-oyile ngaphaya kolawulo lolawulo lweKomishoni yokuRhweba iCommodities Future Trading. I-CFTC inikwe igunya lokuseka imida yorhwebo ''njengoko iKomishoni ifumanisa ukuba kuyimfuneko ukunciphisa, ukuphelisa, okanye ukuthintela" "umthwalo" ovela kwiintelekelelo. Ingxelo yekomitana yeSenethi yase-US ukususela ngoJuni ka-2006 yatyhola abaqikeleli ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile, kuqikelelwa ukuba ngaphezulu kwe-60 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ziye zagalelwa kwiimarike ngelo xesha.
Le ngxelo yaphawula ukuba nanjengoko amaxabiso eoyile ayenyuka, kwakunjalo nokuthengiswa kweoli ngenxa yokuba ababoneleli babengcakaza babenokufumana imali engakumbi. Kwenzeka into efanayo ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka. Amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada asondeze phantse i-20 yeedola ngomphanda ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari. Kodwa kwiiveki ezisibhozo kwezisithoba, uluhlu lweoyile yase-US lonyuke lwaya kutsho kwiminyaka emininzi. UTyson Slocum, umlawuli weNkqubo yaMandla aBemi bakaRhulumente, uchaza indlela esebenza ngayo: โUnamakhulu amaqela angena kwifomathi ye-elektroniki ukuze atshintshiselane ngomthamo omkhulu weoyile ekrwada kunye nepetroli kunye negesi yendalo kunye namandla ombane kunye namalahle kunye ne-ethanol kunye nantoni na eyenye. bafuna ukuyenza. Kwaye konke oko akukho mthethweni." Abadlali, uthi uSlocum, baquka, "Goldman Sachs, uMorgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup kunye neengxowa-mali ezinkulu ze-hedge. Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, UBS-zonke iibhanki ezinkulu zotyalo-mali. Iinkampani ezinkulu zeoli ezingabahwebi yiBP , Shell, kunye neMarathon. I-Exxon Mobil ayingomrhwebi mkhulu ngokwenene.
Kukho "imiba esemthethweni yokubonelela ngemfuno enyusa amaxabiso," utshilo. Kodwa "ubonelelo kunye nemfuno ayichaphazeli inqanaba lamaxabiso esiwabonayo ngoku. Ndicinga ukuba loo nto inento yokwenza nenqanaba elongeziweyo lomthamo wokurhweba, ukuguquguquka kunye noqikelelo olumelwe ngabaninzi babadlali abatsha. " I-Slocum yongeza ukuba ngenxa yokuba "singenalo naluphi na ukubonakala okusebenzayo ... loo ndawo yentengiso inesimemo sokuzibandakanya ekuziphatheni okuchasene nokhuphiswano-ukubambisana, ukubheja, ukulungiswa kwexabiso."
Kunzima ukutsho ukuba iimarike zemveliso yezolimo ziyasetyenziswa, kodwa kubonakala kukho ukwenza inzuzo ze. Okokuqala, kwiBhodi yezoRhwebo yaseChicago, kuye kwakho umtsi omkhulu kurhwebo lwe-elektroniki. Umthamo ingqolowa kunye oat izivumelwano kwi arene elektroniki (ngokuchaseneyo zakudala "umngxuma evulekileyo" apho abarhwebi ngokomzimba ukuhlangabezana) liye landa ngaphezu 130 ekhulwini ngo-2008 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ngelixa izivumelwano irayisi baye ballooned nge 219 ekhulwini. UPatel uthi ucinga ukuba "iimali zehedge kunye nolwahlulo lokuthengisa ukutya okuziinkozo kumashishini amakhulu ezolimo enza itoni yemali, njengoCargill kunye noArcher Daniels Midland."
Ngo-2007 iCargill yanyusa ipesenti ezingama-36 kwinzuzo kunyaka ophelileyo, iADM ngama-67 epesenti, kunye neConAgra ngama-30 epesenti. Kwikota yokuqala ka-2008 uCargill ubhengeze i-86 yepesenti yokunyuka kwenzuzo ukuya kwi-1.03 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, eyathi ngokuyinxenye kuba "iimali zotyalo-mali ziye zangena kwiimarike zentengiso," oku kuthetha ukuba "amaxabiso abeka phezulu kwaye iimarike ziguquguquka ngokungaqhelekanga. "
Elinye icandelo elenza ingeniso entle ziinkampani zezichumisi. Kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo, amaxabiso ezichumisi anyuke kakhulu. Ezinye, ezifana ne-urea kunye ne-diammonium phosphate, ziphantse zaphindaphindeka kabini okanye kathathu kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Enyanisweni, iitshati zamaxabiso zezinye izichumisi zihambelana ngokusondeleyo namaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada. Oko kuya kuba sengqiqweni, ngaphandle kokuba uninzi lwesichumisi senziwa ngokusebenzisa irhasi yendalo kwaye amaxabiso erhasi yendalo aye ehla enyuka ukusukela ngo-2000, enganyuki umnqantsa wentaba njenge-oyile.
Kulo nyaka, iinkampani zezichumisi ziye zafumana "ivumba elimnandi lempumelelo," njengoko Forbes ibeka. Nge-4 ka-Epreli, uMosaic, umenzi wesibini ngobukhulu kwihlabathi kunye neyunithi yeCargill, ubhengeze ukonyuka okuphindwe ka-12 kwingeniso ukuya kwi-520.8 yezigidi zeedola. Omnye umenzi, iBunge, uthe ingeniso yayo inyuke yaya kutsho kwi-289 yezigidi zeedola ukusuka kwi-14 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka odlulileyo, kwaye isithathu, iPotash, yabhengeza "ingeniso yekota yokuqala iphantse yaphindaphindeka kathathu ukuya kwi-566.0 yezigidi zeedola." Yintoni eyenza le ngeniso inkulu ikrokrele kukuba iindleko zabo bezinyuka kakhulu, iingeniso zabo kufuneka zincitshiswe. Endaweni yoko, Forbes kuphawulwe, kwakukho kuphela "ukunyuka okuncinci kweendleko zempahla ekrwada."
Oko akuthethi ukuba baxhaphaza ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okwenzeka kwiimarike zexesha elizayo, kodwa babonakala besebenzisa ngokupheleleyo. UPatel uthi abathengisi bokutya nabo benza inzuzo. Uthi "iinkampani zisebenzisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya njengesizathu sokunyusa amaxabiso .... Enyanisweni, e-UK naseSpain naseMzantsi Afrika, abathengisi abafana noTesco kunye ne-Asda [icandelo laseBritani le-Wal-Mart] baphantsi kophando lolwaphulo-mthetho ekubekeni amaxabiso obisi, inkukhu nesonka.โ Ingxelo efakwe kwiwebhusayithi grain.org, "Ukwenza Ukubulala Kwindlala," ichaza ngokunyuka kwenzuzo phakathi kwabavelisi bokutya kunye nabathengisi. Intengiso kaNestlรฉ kwihlabathi jikelele ikhule ngeepesenti ezisi-7 ngo-2007, iTesco inike ingxelo yengeniso ye-12.3 yeepesenti kunyaka ophelileyo, i-Unilever yathi imida yayo yenzuzo iyanda, kwaye โiCarrefour yaseFransi kunye ne-Wal-Mart yase-US, bathi i-foo d yokuthengisa yeyona nto iphambili ekuzigcineni. ingeniso iyanda." Loo nto ayithethi ukuba yonke imibutho iyayifuna; abanye abavelisi bokutya, njenge-Kraft Foods, babhengeze ukwehla kweengeniso ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zokufaka.
I-Great Rice Panic
Tapha akukho nto icacisayo ukuba kutheni zonke iimpahla zinyuka ngexabiso. Njengendibano yocweyo yehlabathi, i-China idala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuqhutywa yimfuno kwiimveliso ezahlukeneyo zorhwebo. Ifuna iintaba zamalahle, amahlathi ashinyeneyo, nemithambo emikhulu yobhedu ukuze yondle ishishini layo.
Ngokwahlukileyo, ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2007, ixabiso le-Thai B grade rice liphindwe kabini ukuya kwi-760 yeetoni ngeetoni ekupheleni kuka-Matshi kwaye emva kweeveki ezi-1,080 zeedola. Isizathu sokunyuka kokuqala kubangelwe kukubonelela ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo kunye noonobangela bemfuno-ukuqhambuka kwezinambuzane eVietnam, isitokhwe esisezantsi sehlabathi, i-biofuel boom, ukunyuka kwemfuno ekunyukeni kobutyebi. Kodwa intelekelelo iqhuba la maxabiso makhulu apha, nawo. Ngokusisiseko, onke amaqela abandakanyekayo kurhwebo lwerayisi abandakanyeke kwintelekelelo ebangelwa luloyiko. Amazwe amakhulu athumela ngaphandle irayisi anje ngeIndiya, iThailand, kunye neVietnam anciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwerayisi kumazwe angaphandle ukuqinisekisa ukuba imarike yasekhaya yanelisekile, ngaloo ndlela kunyanzelwa ukuhanjiswa kwerayisi kumazwe angaphandle. Amafama, kuquka nabaninzi eThailand, kuthiwa bagcina irayisi kuba, njengoko omnye umbonisi etshilo Guardian (UK), "Ngubani oza kuthengisa irayisi kwi-750 yeetoni xa becinga ukuba iya kubetha i-$ 1,000?" Ngokweengxelo ze-anecdotal, abathengi abaninzi e-Asia bathenga iimpahla ezinkulu zerayisi ngoku ngenxa yoloyiko lokuba baya kuhlawula ngaphezulu kwendlela.
Konke oku kuphakuzela kunye nokuqikelela kuyazondla. Ukungabikho kwendlala yehlabathi, imfuno eqhelekileyo okanye imiba yokubonelela ayinakucacisa ukuba kutheni amaxabiso erayisi aphindeke kathathu e-Asia kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa.
Enye ingcaciso iza ngendlela yentsebenziswano phakathi kokusingqongileyo noqoqosho. IOstreliya yayikade ingomnye wabalimi abakhulu nabathumela irayisi kumazwe angaphandle ehlabathini, kodwa iminyaka emi-6 yembalela iye yasinciphisa isityalo eso saphantse sangabikho, sisi-2 ekhulwini kuphela seso sangaphambili. Xa echaza imeko, i ENew York Times amanqaku, ngelixa kunzima ukuthetha nayiphi na imodeli yemozulu yexesha elifutshane ibangelwa kukufudumala kwehlabathi, "imbalela enzima iyahambelana noko i-climatologists iqikelela ukuba iya kuba yingxaki yokwanda rhoqo."
Ishishini lerayisi liwile ngenxa yokuba abalimi babhenela kwezinye izinto zorhwebo. Ngokomzekelo, "Abanye abalimi bayayishiya irayisi, efuna amanzi amaninzi, ukutyala izityalo ezincinci ezifana nengqolowa." Abanye bajikela kwidiliya yewayini, ekwasebenzisa amanzi amancinci kwaye izise inzuzo yangaphambi kwerhafu yeedola ezingama-2,000 ihektare xa ithelekiswa ne-240 yeehektare yerayisi. Abanye bakufumanisa kuxabiseke ngakumbi ukuthengisa amalungelo abo amanzi okanye umhlaba kubalimi beediliya. Esinye isiphumo, ke, kungenxa yezigqibo ezisekelwe kwimarike, imveliso yewayini iyanda kubantu abatyebileyo ngelixa abona bantu bahluphekayo abaxhomekeke kwirayisi besala begxalathelana kwindawo yentengiso ukuze baphile.
Ukubuyisela i-genie ye-inflation kwibhotile ayingomsebenzi olula. Isisombululo esikhawulezileyo kukulawula ngcono iimarike zorhwebo kunye neekhontrakthi zekamva lerhafu. Ingcamango efanayo iye yacetywa kuqikelelo lwemali, eyaziwa ngokuba yiRhafu yeTobin. Irhafu encinci ayinakubathintela abathengi kunye nabathengisi bokwenene, kodwa iya kuthatha i-bite kwinzala eqikelelwayo.
EUnited States, iimpendulo zinzima ngakumbi. I-Fed isebenzisa imigaqo-nkqubo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuthoba ixabiso letyala le-US, elinceda urhulumente kunye neenkampani, kodwa zonakalise abathengi. Ukusika intsilelo ye-federal ayisiyo-brainer, kodwa akunakwenzeka, kwaye kubandakanya ukurhoxisa ukucuthwa kwerhafu kwizityebi kunye nokuphelisa iMfazwe yase-Iraq. Intsilelo yorhwebo kufuneka inqunyulwe, kodwa nakwimeko engcono kakhulu, kuyakuthatha amashumi eminyaka ukwakha isiseko esitsha samandla esizimeleyo kwi-oyile evela kumazwe angaphandle.
Abanye bacebisa ukuba kuthotywe ukudodobala koqoqosho, njengoko iFed yenza ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1980 ngokutshontsha inzala, kodwa iintlungu ziya kuba qatha kubantu abaninzi baseMelika. Isisombululo esingcono yinkqubo yokwenyani yamandla aluhlaza kunye neziseko ezingundoqo ezidityaniswe nomhlawuli omnye wokhathalelo lwempilo yesizwe kunye nokwandiswa kwentswela-ngqesho kunye neenzuzo zentlalontle. Oku kunokunciphisa impembelelo yokudodobala koqoqosho, ngelixa i-United States itshintshela kwisiseko esisempilweni yezoqoqosho. Kodwa kweli hlabathi le-neoliberal, loo nto inokwenzeka ukuba yenzeke njengoko uGeorge Bush esoloko evuma ukuba akalunganga.