Olunye lweempawu ezingundoqo zengozi ka-2008-2009 kunye neziphumo zayo (oko kukuthi ukuchacha okucothayo okungapheliyo e-US kunye nokuhla koqoqosho oluphindwe kabini nokuphindwe kathathu eYurophu naseJapan) ibe kukuhla okubalulekileyo kumaxabiso eoli yehlabathi. Emva kokufumana ixabiso elingaphaya kwe $100 umphanda ngo 2007-2008, amaxabiso eoli ekrwada ehla, ehla, ehla ezantsi kwe $27 umphanda ngoJanyuwari 2016. Bathe chu kodwa ngokuthe ngcembe benyuka ngo 2016-2017 kwaye benyuka malunga ne $80 umphanda lo. ehlotyeni edlulileyo 2018. Ngoku ukuhlehla kuqale kwakhona, ukuwela phantsi kwe-55 yeedola ngo-Okthobha kwaye kuhlala malunga ne-56 yeedola namhlanje, kunokwenzeka ukuba iwele ngakumbi ngo-2019 ngoku ukuba iJapan neYurophu zibonakala zingena kwelinye ilizwe kwaye ukukhula kwe-US phantse kuyacotha. kakhulu ngo-2019. Ngokubakho ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho e-US kunyuke ngasekupheleni kuka-2019, ukuhla kwexabiso leoli kunokuqhubeka kwixesha elizayo elikufutshane. Kuya kuthetha ntoni oku kuqoqosho lwehlabathi nolwe-US?
Umbuzo obalulekileyo ngowokuba loluphi unxulumano phakathi kokuhla kwexabiso le-oyile kwihlabathi jikelele, ukungazinzi kwezemali kunye neentlekele, kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho?โinto ingcali yezoqoqosho engayiqondi kakuhle. Ngaba ukuhlehla okukhawulezileyo kwangoku kwamaxabiso e-oyile ukususela ngo-Agasti ka-2018 sisalathisi samandla abalulekileyo aqhubekayo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye ne-US? Ngaba ukuhla kwexabiso le-oyile kuya kuwenza mandundu, okanye kunyuse isantya sokudodobala koqoqosho kwihlabathi jikelele ngoku? Kuthekani ngozinzo kwiimarike zempahla yexabiso ngokubanzi? Yintoni enokufundwa kumava ka-2008 ukuya kutsho ku-2015?
Kwincwadi yam ye-2016, i-Systemic Fragility kwi-Global Economy kunye nesahluko sayo malunga nendima ye-deflation kwiingxaki, ndachaza ukuba ioli ayiyona nje into yokuthengisa kodwa, ukususela kwi-1990s, isebenze njenge-asethi ebalulekileyo yemali exabiso layo lichaphazela ezinye iindlela ze-asethi yemali. (izitokhwe, iibhondi, ii-derivatives, iimali, njl.). Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-asethi yezemali ngokubanzi (amaqamza kunye nokwehla kwamandla emali) kunempembelelo enkulu kuqoqosho lokwenyani kunosoqoqosho abaqhelekileyo, abangaziqondiyo iimarike zemali kunye nemijikelo, cinga. Yiyo loo nto bengaqondi ukuba imijikelo yezemali idibana njani nemijikelo yeshishini lokwenyani. Oku kusebenza ngokunjalo ekuqondeni kwabo amaxabiso eoli njengamaxabiso ee-asethi zemali, hayi nje amaxabiso eemveliso.
Ukwehla kwexabiso le-oyile kuhlaziywe ngo-2018
I-oyile yimpahla yorhwebo exabiso layo limiselwa yintsebenziswano yonikezelo kunye nemfuno, kodwa ikwayi-asethi yezemali exabiso layo limiselwa luqikelelo longxowankulu bezemali behlabathi kwiimarike zexesha elizayo le-oyile kunye nokhuphiswano phakathi kweentlobo ngeentlobo zee-asethi zemali kwihlabathi jikelele, kwi-world finance capital elite entsha (ekwakhankanywa nayo kwincwadi) jonga imbuyekezo kutyalo-mali (umz. iingeniso) ezivela kutyalo-mali lwe-asethi yezemali kwihlabathi-ukhetha phakathi kwekamva le-oli, izitokhwe, iibhondi, izinto eziphuma kuzo, iimali, izindlu nomhlaba jikelele.
Ixabiso le-oyile ekrwada yekamva liqhuba ixabiso leoli ekrwada kwixesha elifutshane neliphakathi, njengempahla yorhwebo njengoko abaqiqi bebhejela unikezelo lwe-oyile kunye nemfuno, kunye nexabiso elihambelanayo lezinye iintlobo ze-asethi yemali ngokuyinxenye ikwamisela imfuno ye-oyile ekrwada. ii-oyile zokuqikelela ikamva leoli.
Kuthetha ukuthini oku kukuba ukusebenzisa ngokulula uhlalutyo lobonelelo kunye nebango ukumisela icala lamaxabiso e-oli ekrwada kwihlabathi jikelele akwanelanga. Akukho nikezelo okanye imfuno etshintshileyo ukususela ngo-Agasti 2018 ngeepesenti ze-30 ukuchaza i-30 yepesenti yehla kwi-oyile ekrwada ukuya kuluhlu lwangoku oluphakathi kwe-$ 50s; kwaye ayiyi kuchaza apho ixabiso leoli liya kuhamba khona ngo-2019. Nangona kunjalo, yiloo nto esiyivayo kwiingcali zezoqoqosho namhlanje zizama ukucacisa ukuhla kwamva nje okanye ukuqikelela umzila wexabiso le-oyile yehlabathi jikelele kwi-2019.
Yintoni Engayiqondiyo Iingcali zezoQoqosho
Iingcali zezoqoqosho ezingundoqo zigxininiswe kwingcamango yokuba kuphela ukubonelela kunye nemfuno emisela amaxabiso. Ibuyisela umva kwimpembelelo yezoqoqosho zakudala zenkulungwane ye-18 kunye noAdam Smith. Ubonelelo kunye nemfuno yimbonakalo yokuzimisela kwexabiso. Okubalulekileyo yimikhosi engasemva, engaphantsi nangaphantsi ebangela utshintsho ekuboneleleni nasekufuneni. Loo mandla ngabona bamiselayo. Kodwa iingcali zezoqoqosho eziqhelekileyo zijongana nomphezulu wembonakalo, yiyo loo nto uqikelelo lwabo lwezalathiso zoqoqosho kwixesha eliphakathi nelide luhlwempuzekile.
Ukujonga iinkcazo zamva nje kunye nohlalutyo ngoosoqoqosho abaqhelekileyo, kunye ne-echo yabo kumajelo eendaba zoshishino, sifumana le mbono ilandelayo:
Okokuqala, kucacile ukuba kukho imithombo emithathu emikhulu yobonelelo lwe-oyile kwihlabathi jikelele namhlanje: imveliso yase-US eqhutywa bubuchwephesha kunye nokuguqulwa kwe-shale fracking. Okwesibini, imveliso yaseRashiya. Okwesithathu, i-OPEC, ngaphakathi kwe-Saudi Arabia kunye namaqabane ayo, i-UAE, i-Kuwait, njl njl. Ngamnye uvelisa malunga ne-10-11 yezigidi zemibhobho ngosuku (bpd).
Ukususela ngeli hlotyeni, i-US fracking ibangele malunga ne-670,000 imigqomo eyongezelelweyo ngosuku ngo-Oktobha xa kuthelekiswa noJulayi odlulileyo 2018. Zombini imveliso yaseSaudi kunye neRashiya yongeze malunga ne-700,000 ngaphezulu nganye, ngokulandelanayo. Ukunciphisa ukunyuka kokunikezelwa, ngokuyinxenye, kuye kwanciphisa imveliso yiVenezuela kunye ne-Iran-zombini eziqhutywa yizohlwayo zase-US kwaye, kwimeko yaseVenezuela, iinzame zexesha elide zase-US zokuthintela ukuphuculwa nokugcinwa kwemveliso yaseVenezuela.
Ukonyuka okungaphezulu kwezigidi ezi-2 ze-bpd kubonelelo lwe-oyile ekrwada kwihlabathi jikelele yi-oyile ye-oyile ye-US-Russia-Saudi, kumphezulu, kubonakale njengokuhla kwamaxabiso e-oyile yehlabathi ukusuka kwi-80 yeedola ukuya kwi-55 yeedola, okanye malunga neepesenti ezingama-30 kwimbalwa nje. iinyanga. Uqikelelo kukuba ukunyuka konikezelo kuya kuqhuba ixabiso leoli emhlabeni wonke lisephantsi kwi-2019: Izibikezelo zase-US ze-2019 ziyi-avareji ye-12.06 yezigidi ze-bpd; eRashiya umyinge we-11.4 yezigidi ze-bpd; kunye neSaudi i-avareji ye-10.6 yezigidi ze-bpd (imithombo: i-EIA kunye ne-OPEC secretariat).
Imfuno kunye noBonelelo njengeNkangeleko nje
Ke inkangeleko kukuba unikezelo luya kuqhuba amaxabiso e-oyile ehlabathi asasezantsi ngo-2019. Kodwa kuthekani ngemfuno? Ngaba amandla asemva kwayo aqhubela phambili ukuhla kwexabiso leoli nangakumbi? Kwaye kuthekani ngokuhla kwexabiso lezinye iimarike ze-asethi yezemali? Ngaba ukuhla kwesitokhwe, iibhondi, izinto eziphuma kuzo, kunye namaxabiso eemali kuya kubangela ukuba abatyali-zimali bongxowankulu bezemali banyuse imfuno yabo yekamva leoli njengoko betshintsha utyalo-mali ukusuka ekuwohlokeni kwamaxabiso kwezo marike zezemali ukuya kwi-oyile? Okanye ngaba iya kunciphisa utyalo-mali lwabo kwikamva leoli njengoko amanye amaxabiso ee-asethi zezemali ehla, njengoko isiphumo sokosulela ngokwasengqondweni sisasazeka kwiimarike ze-asethi yezemali ngokubanzi, kubandakanywa ikamva leoli?
Ngelixa ii-mainstreamers zigxininisa kwaye zithetha ukuba ukuqwalaselwa kokubonelela okucocekileyo kuya kuxela kwangaphambili ixabiso leoli, uhlalutyo lwam lugxininisa ukuba ukuqwalaselwa okunzulu kwamandla kuyimfuneko. Yintoni eqhubayo, kwaye iya kuqhubeka iqhuba, amaxabiso eoyile ezopolitiko, ukuhla kwexabiso leemalike zezemali, kunye nemfuno eya kuqhutywa kukuhla koqoqosho kuqoqosho oluphambili (iYurophu, iJapan, emva koko i-US, kunye nokuhla kweGDP eTshayina) .
Njengoko ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi kuncipha, ngoku ngokucacileyo kuyaqhubeka, ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sabavelisi be-oli behlabathi baza kwandisa imveliso yeoli. IRashiya, iVenezuela, iIraq, abavelisi abancinci baseAfrika nabaseAsia, baxhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwe-oyile ukuxhasa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lukarhulumente oluninzi. Njengoko ukukhula kokwenyani kuncipha, kwaye ukudodobala koqoqosho kubonakala okanye kuya kuba mandundu, intsilelo iya kunyuka ngakumbi ifuna ingeniso karhulumente ethe chatha kwintengiso yeoli. Yintoni la mazwe angakwaziyo ukuvelisa kwingeniso evela kumaxabiso aya kuzama ukuvelisa ukusuka kwixabiso lentengiso eninzi. Nditsho neSaudi Arabia ingene kweli qela, njengoko ifuna ukuvelisa ingeniso ethe kratya ukuxhasa ngezimali uphuhliso lwezicwangciso zayo zoqoqosho ezingezozamandla.
Ke iRussia kunye noninzi lwe-OPEC-ngenxa yezizathu zezopolitiko-ziya kwandisa unikezelo ngenxa yokucotha koqoqosho-okt ngenxa yeDemand ekuqaleni kwaye ibonelele kuphela okwesibini. Njengoko uqoqosho lwehlabathi luqhubeleka nokucotha imfuno inyanzelisa ukuthomalalisa ezo zobonelelo. Kodwa ezi zimbini zizimisele ngokucacileyo ngokufanayo. Kuphela nje kukuba imfuno ngoku izimisele ngakumbi kwaye iya kuhlala injalo ukuya ku-2019.
Ityala njengoMqhubi weGlobal Oil Deflation
Kodwa yintoni ebangela ukuba kubekho imfuneko emsebenzini? E-US, itekhnoloji yetekhnoloji, uguquko lwe-fracking, iqhuba ixabiso lemveliso yeoli kwaye ke ixabiso layo. Ikwalityala lenkampani, elihlala likwizinga lenkunkuma, elixhase utyalo-mali emva kokunyuka kwemveliso ye-oyile. Iidriller zilayishwe ngamatyala e-junk bond, ehlala ixesha elifutshane, ekufuneka bewahlawulele, okanye ngokukhawuleza baqengqeleke ngoku ngesantya esiphezulu senzala ngo-2019 nangaphaya. Kufuneka bavelise kwaye bathengise ioyile eninzi ukuze bahlawule utyalo-mali olutsha oluqhutywa bubuchwephesha beminyaka yakutshanje. Kwaye njengoko ixabiso liwela kufuneka bavelise kwaye bathengise ngakumbi ukuvelisa ingeniso yokuhlawula inzala kunye nenqununu kwelo tyala.
Ke ngaba iyabonelelwa ngenene, okanye ngaba ngokusisiseko lityala kunye netekhnoloji eqhuba imveliso ye-shale yase-US, ethe yona yongeza kuxinzelelo lwamaxabiso ehlabathi? Ngaba iyabonelelwa okanye yindlela unikezelo oluye lwaxhaswa ngayo ngezimali ziimarike zongxowankulu?
Ngokufanayo, kwimeko yaseRashiya kunye nobuninzi be-OPEC, ngaba ukubonelela okanye yimfuno yaloo mazwe ukuba ahlawule urhulumente wawo akhulise imithwalo yamatyala (kunye nohlahlo lwabiwo-mali ngokubanzi) ngokuvelisa ingeniso yokuthengisa engaphezulu kwimveliso yeoli, nanjengoko ixabiso. ye-oyile iyawa kwaye ngaloo ndlela isoyikisa loo ngeniso ye-oyile?
Nokuba kwinqanaba leshishini okanye likarhulumente, ukukhawuleziswa kwamatyala kwiminyaka yakutshanje kusemva kwemikhosi eqhuba ukuveliswa kweoyile egqithisileyo kunye nokubonelela okubonakala kungunobangela wokuhla kwexabiso leoli.
Ezopolitiko njengoMqhubi
Ipolitiki yasekhaya neyehlabathi yenye amandla anxulumeneyo kwezinye iimeko. Ngokucacileyo, iRashiya ibandakanyeka ekwandeni kophando lwayo lwasemkhosini kunye nezinye iinkcitho zikarhulumente ezinxulumene nomkhosi. I-elite yayo elawulayo iqinisekile ukuba i-US ilungiselela ukucela umngeni ukuzimela kwayo kwezopolitiko: Ukungena kwe-NATO ye-Baltics kunye ne-Poland, i-US-ikhuthazwe i-coup e-Ukraine, i-US yangaphambili e-Georgia, njl., ibangele ukukhawuleza kweRashiya kwiindleko zayo zomkhosi. . Ukuqhubela phambili utyalo-mali lwayo njengoko i-US izama ukunyanzelisa izohlwayo ezongezelelweyo (eyenzelwe ukunqumla unxibelelwano lwaseRashiya kunye neYurophu ngokukodwa), kwaye njengoko uqoqosho lwaseRashiya lucotha njengoko luphakamisa inzala yalo yasekhaya ukwenzela ukukhusela imali yayo, iRashiya kufuneka ivelise kwaye ithengise ioli eninzi. kwihlabathi jikelele. Ngaloo ndlela ivelisa imfuno engakumbi ye-oyile yayo ngokukhuphisana ngokunciphisa ixabiso kunye nemfuno yokunyuka kwe-oyile yaseRashiya-kodwa kungekhona ngenxa yezizathu zezoqoqosho zendalo njengoko uqoqosho lwehlabathi lucotha. Iyanda kuba itshintsha imfuno yeoli isuka kwabanye abavelisi iye kuyo.
Izopolitiko zaseSaudi zikwayinxalenye emva kokunyuka kwemveliso ecetywayo. Iye yanyusa inkcitho yayo yasemkhosini ngokunjalo, kwimfazwe yayo eYemen kunye nezicwangciso zayo zongquzulwano lwexesha elizayo ne-Iran. Utyalo-mali lukarhulumente waseSaudi kwiziseko ezingundoqo zasekhaya lukwafuna ukuba zenze ingeniso ye-oyile eyongezelelekileyo kwixesha elifutshane. Isivumelwano samva nje saseRussia-Saudi (OPEC) sokunciphisa okanye ukubamba imveliso ye-oyile ngokungaguquguqukiyo ibe sisivumelwano sobuqhetseba, njengoko amanani okwenene nacwangcisiweyo emveliso ye-oyile etyhila ngokucacileyo.
Okuncinci, kukho umbuzo weemalike ze-asethi zemali zehlabathi ezihlayo ngokuhla kwamaxabiso e-asethi kunye nokuba oku kuyichaphazela njani imarike ye-oyile ye-asethi yekamva. Kwakhona, utshintsho kubonelelo lwe-oyile kunye nemfuno ngokulula aluguquguquki ngama-30 ekhulwini kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa. Umqhubi wexabiso leoli ukususela ngoJulayi 2018 kufuneka abe yingcamango yezemali kwixesha elizayo leoli.
Apha kunokuthi kuxoxwe ukuba abatyali-mali bajongana nokucotha koqoqosho lwehlabathi, ngakumbi eYurophu naseJapan, kwiinyanga ezizayo. Basenokususa utyalo-mali kwikamva le-oyile njengomdlalo wexabiso eliqikelelwayo, kwaye baye kwimali yase-US kunye nezitokhwe kunye neebhondi. Okanye kwiimarike ze-asethi zemali eTshayina. Okanye ukucinga ngembuyekezo kwiimali ezikhethiweyo zeemarike ezikhulayo kunye nezitokhwe ezizinzile kwixesha elifutshane kwaye zinokunyuka kwixabiso, ukuvelisa inzuzo eqikelelwayo entle ngexesha elifutshane. I-finance capital elite entsha ijonga imbuyekezo ekhuphisanayo kwihlabathi, kuzo zonke iimarike ze-asethi zemali. Ihambisa imali yayo ngokukhawuleza, ukusuka kumdlalo we-asethi ukuya kwenye, owenziwe yitekhnoloji, ukususwa kwangaphambili kolawulo lokuhamba kwemali eyinkunzi yehlabathi, ukuboleka lula, kunye nokukwazi ukuhamba ngokukhawuleza ukungena nokuphuma kwinto yothungelwano oluntsonkothileyo lwe-asethi yemali engamanzi. iimarike zehlabathi. Njengoko ibona imfuno yehlabathi kunye nezopolitiko zidlala indima ebalulekileyo yexesha elifutshane ekwehleni kwexabiso le-oyile yehlabathi, isusa utyalo-mali ngaphandle kwe-oyile yexesha elizayo kwaye iye kwezinye iindlela ze-asethi zemali kwenye indawo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Ukubonelelwa kancinci kwenkunzi yemali kutyalo-mali kwikamva le-oyile kunciphisa imfuno ye-oyile yexesha elizayo, nto leyo enciphisa imfuno ye-oyile kunye ne-oyile ekrwada ngokubanzi.
isiphelo
Le ngxoxo ingentla nohlalutyo icebisa oku kulandelayo:
Ukujonga unikezelo lweoyile kuphela okanye ngokuyintloko kukujonga imbonakalo kuphela.
Kodwa unikezelo kunye nohlalutyo lweemfuno zamaxabiso eoyile lukwalucazululo lwangaphandle lwenkangeleko. Zizinto ezibangela unobangela ophakathi kokona kulungileyo.
Okubalulekileyo ngamandla okwenene amisela ngokusisiseko unikezelo kunye nemfuno.
Ezopolitiko, itekhnoloji, kunye nokuxhaswa ngemali kwamatyala zezona zinto zibalulekileyo eziqhuba ubonelelo kunye nemfuno ngexesha eliphakathi nelide.
I-oyile ayiyonto nje yorhwebo, ukusukela ngoo-1990 ngakumbi; iye yaba yi-asethi yezemali exabiso layo ligqitywe ngexesha elifutshane ngokunyuka ngokunyuka kotyalo-mali oluqikelelwayo ngabaphezulu bezemali behlabathi.
Njengee-asethi zemali, amaxabiso e-oyile amiselwa ngexesha elifutshane kwihlabathi jikelele ngexabiso elihambelanayo lezinye ii-asethi zemali ezikhuphisanayo kunye namaxabiso azo.
Ubume boqoqosho lwehlabathi kwinkulungwane yama-21 luhlobo lokuba kuye kwavela i-elite entsha yezemali yehlabathi, ukubheja kukhetho olubanzi lwee-asethi eziyimali ezifumanekayo kwiimarike ze-asethi yezemali, apho i-elite ihambisa utyalo-mali ngokukhawuleza nangokulula ngenxa entsha. ubuchwephesha obuvumelayo kunye nokupheliswa kwexesha elidlulileyo lokuhamba kwemali eyinkunzi yelizwe lonke.
Ukushwankathela, njengoko kubonakala ngakumbi ukuba ezopolitiko (uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwasekhaya kunye neemfuno zengeniso, izigwebo zase-US, ukunyuka kweendleko zemikhosi, iimfazwe zorhwebo, njl. njl.) kunye nokucotha koqoqosho lwehlabathi kubangela uxinzelelo oluphantsi kwimfuno yeoli kwaye ngaloo ndlela ixabiso leoli, eli xinzelelo lwexabiso. yenziwe mandundu kukunyuka okuhambelanayo kwemveliso kunye nonikezelo ngenxa yokunyuka kwamatyala oshishino kunye norhulumente kunye neemfuno zokuhlawulela amatyala. Nangona kunjalo, kwixeshana elifutshane lokutshintsha kwamaxabiso eveki nangenyanga, ngabaxeli be-oyile behlabathi babheja ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile ngakumbi kunye nokutshintsha kweembuyekezo zotyalo-mali lwe-asethi kwenye indawo oyena mqhubi uphambili wokuthotywa kwe-oyile yehlabathi.
Amaxabiso e-oyile ehlabathi amiselwa kokunye ukuhla kwexabiso lemalike ye-asethi yemali okwenzekayo kwixeshana elifutshane, aze amisele ngokuyinxenye ukuhla kwexabiso kwezinye iimarike ze-asethi zemali. Amaxabiso e-oyile ehlabathi akanakuqondwa ngaphandle kokuqonda okwenzekayo ngezinye iimarike ze-asethi zemali kunye namaxabiso. Ukuqonda kunye nokuqikelela amaxabiso e-oyile ke ngoko ayingomsebenzi wobonelelo olungeyomfuneko kunye nohlalutyo lwemfuno, kwaye ngaphantsi koko ngumsebenzi ophambili wokuxela kwangaphambili izibhengezo zemveliso yezicwangciso zemveliso yi-troika enkulu emithathu yase-US-Russia-Saudi.
Z
UJack Rasmus ungumbhali wencwadi ezayo ye-2019, Isibetho se-Neoliberalism: Umgaqo-nkqubo wase-US ukusuka kwi-Reagan ukuya kwi-Trump, i-Clarity Press, kunye ne-Central Bankers epapashwe kutshanje ekupheleni kweeNtya zabo: Umgaqo-nkqubo weMali kunye noxinzelelo oluzayo, ukucaca kwe-2017. ibamba inkqubo kanomathotholo yeAlternative Visions kwiProgressive Radio Network. Umqheba wakhe we-twitter ngu-@drjackrasmus kunye newebhusayithi yakhe, kyklosproductions.com.