Inxalenye I yolu ngcelele yavela Apha kwinkupho kaMatshi yeMagazini iZ
In ubungqina phambi kwe-US Congress House Financial Services Committee ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2008, US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) Usihlalo Ben Bernanke wavuma okokuqala oko abaninzi kwimali, iibhanki, kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo karhulumente izangqa ngokuzolileyo baqalise ukuvuma: ukuba imeko yemali ekhoyo ngoku isasazeka ngokukhawuleza ngaphaya kwecandelo le-subprime yokuhlala ye-mortgage kwezinye iimarike zamatyala kwaye inyathelo lomgaqo-mali we-Fed (oko kukuthi, ukuthoba inzala) kubonakala kungenakukwazi ukwenza okuninzi malunga nengxaki yemali okanye ukudodobala koqoqosho olukhulayo.
Njengoko uBernanke wavuma kwiKomiti ngoFebruwari 27, 2008: "Imeko yezoqoqosho (kutsha nje) iye yacaca ukuba iyancipha," kunye nokunciphisa imarike yendawo yokuhlala ngokukhawuleza, ukwakhiwa okungeyona indawo yokuhlala "kunokunciphisa ngokukhawuleza kwiindawo ezizayo," umthengi. inkcitho kunye necandelo leshishini liya kucotha kakhulu, kwaye iimeko zetyala ngokubanzi zinokuthi "ziqiniswe kakhulu." Ngapha koko, "imingcipheko kule mbono ihlala isezantsi." UBernanke wavuma ukuba i-Fed, nangona iyancipha ngokuphindaphindiweyo inzala yexesha elifutshane ukususela ngoSeptemba 2007, ayiphumelelanga ukunciphisa inzala yexesha elide. Ngapha koko, iireyithi zexesha elide-ezinempembelelo enkulu kakhulu kwinkcitho yabathengi nakwishishini kwaye ngaloo ndlela kumathuba okudodobala koqoqosho-ziqalisile ukunyuka "kuyo yonke ibhodi."
Oku kulandelayo yinkcazo yendlela ingxaki yezemali isasazeke ngayo ngesantya esikhawulezayo e-US, ukusuka kwi-subprime mortgage ukuya kwezinye iimarike zetyala, kunye nendlela esosulelayo eqala ngayo ukungena kuqoqosho lokwenyani (olungenamali), lubangela ubunzulu. ukudodobala koqoqosho ngoku kuvela e-US
Tyena subprime mortgage crisis eyavela esidlangalaleni ngoJulayi-Agasti 2007 ayizange ibangele ingxaki yezemali yangoku, kodwa yaba yenye yeempawu ezininzi (kwaye ngoku zikhula) zokungazinzi kwezemali ezinzulu. Intelekelelo kwi-subprime mortgages-ekhuthazwa yi-securitization entsha kunye ne-derivatives revolutions kwezemali, ukuchithwa okubonakalayo kwe-capital capital ukususela ekupheleni kwee-1990s, amandla amatsha eteknoloji, kunye urhwaphilizo oluxhaphakileyo kunye nobuqhetseba kwiinkalo ezininzi-luvelise ixabiso lexabiso le-asethi yezindlu ze-epic dimensions phakathi kwe-2003. -2006. Ukubolekwa kwe-Mortgage kwenyuka ngaphezu kwe-4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola phakathi kwe-2003-6 kunye ne-$ 2 yezigidigidi zaloo nto ikhutshwe kwi-subprime mortgages. Oko kumalunga ne-1 yetriliyoni yeedola ngonyaka iminyaka emi-4 ilandelelana. Namhlanje, imarike ye-mortgage ye-subprime iye yanyuka, kwaye ininzi yeemarike ezingekho phantsi kwe-subprime ngokukhawuleza iza kuma.
Ngokuphuphuma kwemarike ye-subprime kwafika ukuwa kwamaxabiso kunye nexabiso le-subprime mortgage securities (iibhondi). Ngenxa yobukhulu bentelekelelo (i-2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) kwi-subprime mortgages, ubungakanani belahleko yeebhanki kunye namaziko emali nawo ayekhulu kakhulu. Ngokwee-arhente zokukala i-Moody's kunye ne-Standard & Poor's, ekuqaleni kuka-2008 ilahleko iphelele ubuncinane be-$400 yeebhiliyoni. Eminye imithombo yebhanki yangaphandle iqikelela ilahleko enokubakho kwi-subprimes e-US kwi-600 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Iibhanki kunye namaziko emali ukuza kuthi ga ngoku acime kuphela i-120 leebhiliyoni zeerandi. Oko kushiya i-$ 280-$ 480 yezigidigidi ukuya.
Ubume obukhulu belahleko bukhokelela ngokukhawuleza ekuweni kwezinye iimarike zetyala ezisondelelene kakhulu ne-subprime market. I-Subprimes yayihlala idityaniswe nezinye izibambiso ngaphambi kokuba zithengiswe njengezivumelwano eziphinde zapakishwa ziibhanki kunye neengxowa-mali zehedge kubatyali-mali, kunye nephepha lentengiso elibizwa ngokuba yi-asethi exhaswa ngephepha lentengiso (ABCP). Njengoko i-subprimes yawa nge-600 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2007, imarike ye-ABCP yehla malunga ne-500 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunye nayo kwisithuba seenyanga ezimbalwa. Ukosuleleka kwimarike ye-subprime nako kwasulela i-non-subprime mortgage market (ebizwa ngokuba yi-Alt-A mortgages). Ngokufanayo, imakethi ye-ABCP yosulela intengiso yephepha elingeyo-asethi. Ngokulandelayo, imakethi yepropathi yendlu yorhwebo yehla ngamakhulu aliqela eebhiliyoni zeedola ekupheleni kuka-2007, kunye noqikelelo lokuvalwa kwayo okunokwenzeka phakathi ku-2008.
Ukucutheka kwetyala eziye zayanyaniswa kwezi marike zi-5 zinxulumeneyo zifikelele ngaphezulu kwe-1.6 yezigidi zezigidi zezigidi zeedola, eyenzeka kwisithuba esingaphantsi kweenyanga ezi-6, kunye nelahleko yebhanki eyayanyaniswa nayo kunye nokubhala phantsi okuqikelelwa malunga ne-600-$800 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Tyena wokwakha (izindlu-yorhwebo) kunye nokuncipha kwemarike yephepha enxulumene ngokusondeleyo kwaphantse kwaqala ukuphalala kwiimarike zebhondi yequmrhu, ingakumbi into ebizwa ngokuba yi-high yield corporate or junk bond market ethe yafumana ikhontrakthi ngama-90 epesenti ngoJanuwari 2008 xa kuthelekiswa no. NgoJanuwari 2007, yehla ngaphezulu kwe-900 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Njengemakethi ye-ABCP, imarike ye-junk bond kulapho ii-corporations ezinoqoqosho zihamba khona ukuze zinyuse imali ngokukhupha kunye nokuthengisa iibhondi zabo ezingakhuselekanga. Nge-ABCP kunye ne-junk bond credit markets eziwayo, iinkampani ebezithembele kuzo ngaphambili ziqikelelwa ukuba zingasilela kumanani erekhodi. Amazinga amiselweyo aqikelelwa ukuba aza kunyuka ukusuka kwipesenti enye ukuya ngaphezulu kweshumi lepesenti, ngokweMoody's kunye neStandard & Poor's. Oko kuthetha ukuba ilahleko enkulu eyongezelelekileyo kwiibhanki ngaphezulu kwe-subprime kunye nelahleko yepropathi yepropathi esele yenzeka. Kukwathetha ukuba njengoko loo mashishini esilela, uninzi luyatshona kwaye luphume kushishino, isiphumo siya kuba kukudendwa kwabantu abaninzi kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezizayo.
Ukunyuka kokusilela kweshishini kunye nelahleko yebhanki elindelekileyo ikhokelela ekunyukeni kweendleko zenzala kwiinkampani ezizinzileyo. Ukusuka kwimarike ye-junk bond yenkampani, ukuncitshiswa kwetyala kuye kwanwenwela kwiimarike zetyala leshishini eliqhelekileyo, njengemali mboleko yebhanki yorhwebo kunye neyeshishini kunye neemarike zexesha elifutshane zephepha zorhwebo. Ngokudibeneyo, ezi zimbini zimele iimarike zetyala ezithi uninzi lwamashishini aphakathi kunye amancinci axhomekeke kakhulu ekuxhaseni ngemali ushishino. Ezi marike zimbini zinexabiso elidityanisiweyo le-3.3 yetriliyoni yemali-mboleko ethe yakhutshelwa ishishini ngo-Agasti ka-2007.
Enye imakethi yetyala ethathe ukuntywila ekuqaleni kuka-2008 yayiyi-leveraged buyout (LBO) market. Lo ibingummandla wotyalo-mali othelekelelwayo apho iinkampani bezilungiselela iimali-mboleko kunye nolunye uxhaso-mali ngeebhanki zotyalo-mali ukuze kuthengwe ezinye iinkampani okanye zibe ngasese ukuze kuthintelwe ukongamela kukarhulumente kwizinto eziqikelelwayo kunye nezinye iindlela zoshishino ezinomthunzi. Ekuqaleni kuka-2008 ngaphezulu kweebhiliyoni ezingama-200 zeerandi kwiimali-mboleko zokuthenga okuxhaphakileyo zashiyeka zijinga ngaphandle kwabathengi abanomdla. Oku kuthetha ukuba iibhanki kunye nabatyali-zimali bokuqala ekugqibeleni kuya kufuneka bazithathele ngokwabo ilahleko.
Kodwa ezona ndaba zinkulu kakhulu zasekuqaleni kuka-2008 yayikukukhula kwamathuba eenkampani ze-inshorensi yebhondi, njenge-MBIA, i-Ambac, kunye nezinye (ezibizwa ngokuba zii-monolines) zijonge ukuthotywa kwaye mhlawumbi zizenzekele ngokwazo. Ezi nkampani zaqinisekisa ukuba iibhondi kunye neemali-mboleko zezinye iinkampani, zithembisa ukuhlawula abatyali-mali kwiinkampani kunye nezinye izibophelelo zebhondi ukuba zinokwenzeka. Kodwa ngoovimba abadityanisiweyo be-$20-$30 yebhiliyoni kuphela abakhoyo, isiqingatha seshumi elinesibini se-inshurensi yebhondi bona ngokwabo abaxhaswa ngemali ngokugqithisileyo. Amatyala abo adityanisiweyo (okt, izibophelelo ze-inshorensi) afikelela ngaphezulu kwe-1.9 yetriliyoni yeedola. Ngaphezu koko, nabo baqikelele kwii-subprimes kunye nolunye utyalo-mali oluphuma kwi-572 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Kuye kwacaca ngakumbi kubatyali-mali nakwiimarike ukuba iimonolines zoovimba bezingonelanga ngokulusizi. Ii-arhente zokulinganisa ziye zayibetha ngoyaba imeko yazo ngexesha lolindelo oluqikelelwayo. Kodwa i-Moody's kunye ne-S&P ngoku zigrogrisa ngokuthoba i-inshurensi yebhondi. Ukuba oko kuyenzeka, iinkampani ezininzi kunye neebhanki ezithenge i-inshorensi yazo zinokujongana nokuthotywa okumandla, okukhokelela kwilahleko eyongezelelekileyo kunye nokusilela.
Imeko engathandekiyo, kunye nelahleko enkulu enokubakho yee-monolines ibangele ukuba umxhasi wehlabathi uGeorge Soros ahlomle kutsha nje, โKukho inkxalabo eyandayo malunga nee-monolinesโฆkukwakho ingxaki enokubakho ngeemali zentengiso yemali ezinokuthi zibambe ii-asethi ezithandabuzekayo.โ Inkxalabo kaSoros iphinde yachazwa yi-CEO yeJP Morgan, uJamie Dimon, owongeze ngelithi, "Ukuba enye yezi nkampani (iinshurensi yebhondi) ayiphumeleli, isiphumo sesibini sinokuba sibi." Eso siphumo sesibini siya kuba kukuthotywa kunye nesiphumo sokungaphumeleli kwamakhulu eebhiliyoni kwiibhondi zeshishini-ngaphezulu kwe-10 esele iqikelelwe ukwanda kokusilela kweshishini ngo-2008.
Abanye abahlalutyi baqikelela ukuba ukutshona okanye ukuthotywa okukhulu kwe-inshurensi yebhondi enye okanye ngaphezulu kunokuphalala ngokulula kwimalike yemalike ye-3.3 yetriliyoni yezigidi zeerandi okanye i-2.5 yetriliyoni yeetriliyoni zemakethi yebhondi kamasipala, oko kubangela ukuba iziko liqhubele phambili kwiibhanki ezinokungafani kakhulu nabagcinisi bomntu ngamnye. ' Ibhanki iqhuba ngo-1930 nangaphambili. Iimpawu zakwangoko zemeko enjalo enokwenzeka zaqala ukuvela ngoFebruwari ka-2008, njengoko amacandelo aphambili emarike ye-muni bond eqala ukoma. Ngokumalunga nesiqingatha seebhondi zikamasipala ezikhuselwe yi-inshurensi yebhondi, ukhuseleko lweebhondi ze-muni zaqala ukubuzwa. Amacandelo amabini angundoqo emarike ye-muni angena kwikhontrakthi ebukhali-oko kukuthi, izinga lefandesi kunye nemilinganiselo eguquguqukayo yebhondi kamasipala, ebonelela ngemali malunga ne-330 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunye ne-500 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ngokulandelelanayo. Okubaluleke kakhulu kwinkxaso-mali karhulumente kunye norhulumente wasekhaya, ukuhla kwezorhwebo kwiimarike ze-muni kusongela ukonyuka kweendleko kunye neengxaki zenkxaso-mali koorhulumente basekhaya. Uninzi lwabasemagunyeni kurhulumente welizwe kunye nowengingqi ngoku bajongana neendleko zokuboleka ezigqithisileyo ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho kunye nengeniso yerhafu ephantsi.
Enye indlela ye-inshorensi nayo yaqala ukuba phantsi koxinzelelo ekuqaleni kuka-2008. Ngokucacileyo ibingekho phambi kuka-2002, utshintshiselwano lwetyala olungekahlawulwa ngoku lulonke lungaphezulu kwe-$45 yetriliyoni, inkulu kunebhondi karhulumente wase-US kunye neemarike zezindlu zidityanisiwe. Uninzi lwezibambiso kule marike zihlala kwinkqubo yogcino-mali, ngokwayo ubukhulu becala iyimveliso yexesha lasemva kowama-2001, esekwe ziibhanki ukupaka ii-asethi ezinobungozi โoff balance sheetโ kwaye zifihlwe kubatyali-mali kunye nee-arhente zokongamela zikarhulumente ngokufanayo (ilungiselelo elifanayo ukuba kwi-ENRON Corp. engasekhoyo, apho abaphathi abaphezulu bale nkampani babekwa ityala kwaye bavalelwa). Njengee-monolines, ii-credit swap derivatives zenzelwe i-inshurensi ngokuchasene nokusilela. Kodwa ukuba ukunganyaniseki kwebhondi yenkampani kusondela kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo e-1.25 ekhulwini, uBill Gross, umlawuli olawulayo wengxowa-mali yebhondi enkulu yehlabathi, i-Pimco, yabonisa esidlangalaleni ukuba i-500 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwiikontrakthi eziphuma kwityala ziya kukhokelela kwilahleko emalunga ne-250 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Mhlawumbi iflegi ebomvu ekuqaleni kokuqhekeka kwemarike yeedola ezingama-45 eebhiliyoni zeedola yayiyilahleko enkulu eyabhengezwa ngoJanuwari yibhanki enkulu yaseFransi, iSociete General, ethe yaphakamisa ukuba kungenzeka ukuba ingxaki ingaphelelanga kwii-subprimes kunye ne-asethi. iphepha elixhaswayo, kodwa eneneni lalixhaphake kakhulu, kanye njengoko intloko yePimco uBill Gross wayeqikelele.
Iimpawu zeengxaki ezinkulu kwishishini le-inshorensi zavela ekuqaleni kuka-2008, njengoko i-AIG Inc., eyona nkampani inkulu ye-inshurensi ngempahla, ibhengeze ilahleko yeerekhodi ezixabisa i-11.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenxa yokurhweba ngokutshintsha ngetyala. Umfanekiso ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2008 wawungowokuncitshiswa kwetyala okwanda ngokukhawuleza, inxalenye yemveliso yokukhawulezisa ukubhala phantsi kunye nelahleko.
Ilahleko kunye nokuncitshiswa kwetyala akubandakanyi ilahleko eyongezelelekileyo kunye nokucutheka kwityala lomthengi-ingakumbi kwimimandla yemali mboleko yemoto, ityala lekhadi letyala, kunye nemali-mboleko yabafundi. Ubungqina obuvelayo ngoku bubonisa ukuba ilahleko enkulu ilindelwe kwezi marike ngokunjalo. Iinkampani ezinkulu zekhadi letyala njenge-American Express kunye nezinye zibhengeze unikezelo lwenqanaba lerekhodi yelahleko kwaye zibeke ecaleni kulindelo lokusilela kwabathengi. Uluhlu olukhulayo lweeyunivesithi zikarhulumente zibhengeze ukuvala iinkqubo zemboleko yabafundi ngenxa yokunyuka kabukhali kweendleko zokuboleka. I-General Electric Corp. ibhengeze injongo yayo yokuphuma kwiimarike zamatyala omthengi ngokupheleleyo. Ngoko ke, i-mortgage, ibhanki, kunye nengxaki yetyala lenkampani ibonakala ekuqaleni kuka-2008 ukuba iyosulela iimarike zabathengi. Njengetyala lenkampani eligqithileyo, lilonke ityala lekhaya ukusuka ku-2003-07 liphindwe kabini, linyuke malunga ne-7 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola.
Hingaba le lahleko yezemali iguqulela ukudodobala koqoqosho olukhula ngamandla kuqoqosho lwase-US jikelele? Impendulo emfutshane kukuba ilahleko yemali ineziphumo ezimbini zangoko. Okokuqala, ilahleko kumaphepha ebhalansi amaziko emali ithetha ukuba ilahleko kufuneka ibuyiswe ngokunyusa inkunzi yokwenene eyongezelelweyo. Ukuba akunjalo, amaziko ngokwawo anokusilela. Basenokuboleka kwezinye iibhanki, kwiFederal Reserve, okanye, njengoko kutsha nje, kwinto ebizwa ngokuba ziingxowa-mali zobutyebi ezizimeleyo, eziyingxowa-mali yotyalo-mali yorhulumente wangaphandle. Inketho yokuqala yingxaki xa iibhanki zikrokrelana ngokusebenza kwemali. Ukuboleka kwe-Interbank ngoko ke kuyaphela, njengoko kwaphantse kwenzeka ekupheleni kuka-2007. Ukuboleka kwi-Federal Reserve lukhetho lwesibini kwaye beluqhubeka ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2007 phantsi kwemiqathango ethandwa kakhulu yi-Fed. Kodwa imali-mboleko ye-Fed ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ibonakalise ukungonelanga ukuhlawula ubungakanani obulindelweyo belahleko yexesha elizayo ziibhanki. Ngokufanayo, iimali zobutyebi ezizimeleyo eziseDubai, Singapore, nakwezinye iindawo ziye zafaka inkxaso-mali kwiibhanki ngokuthenga ubunini obuyinxenye beMerrill Lynch, Citicorp, nabanye. Kodwa izixa-mali zilinganiswa kumashumi asezantsi eebhiliyoni, akukho ndawo ikufutshane namakhulu eebhiliyoni zelahleko ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kwaye bekulindelwe.
Ngenxa yelahleko enkulu elindelekileyo kunye nenkxaso-mali ekunokwenzeka ukuba ayifumaneki, iibhanki zijika ziboleke imali ezinayo. Ngoko ke baphakamisa amazinga enzala ukurekhoda amanqanaba. Ezi nzala aziyiyo inzala yexesha elifutshane ye-3 ukuya kwi-4 ekhulwini apho i-Fed iboleka imali kwiibhanki. Amaxabiso eebhanki anikwa abathengi ngamaxabiso enzala yexesha elideโngokusisiseko iibhondi kunye nemali-mboleko yexesha elideโebolekwe kwisi-7 ekhulwini, i-10 ekhulwini nangaphezulu. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso exesha elide kuphakamisa iindleko zokuboleka ngabathengi abangengabo abebhanki kunye nabathengi abathenga iimveliso ezihlala ixesha elide njengeemoto, ifenitshala, amakhaya, njl.
Kwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho olukhawulezileyo, iibhanki ziyathandabuza ukuboleka kwaye iinkampani ziyathandabuza ngokulinganayo ukuboleka. Kuphela ziinkampani ezivezwe kakhulu ezikulungeleyo ukuboleka ngamaxabiso aphezulu, nto leyo ethetha ukuba kwiimeko ezininzi ziya kuthi ekugqibeleni zingene ngaphantsiโngaloo ndlela iMoodyโs kunye neS&Pโs uqikelelo lokunyuka kwamaxesha ali-10 kumazinga okusilela kwenkampani kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezizayo. Utyalo-mali olusezantsi kunye nenkcitho yeshishini iguqulela ekugqibeleni ibe kukudendwa, ukungagqibeki kwi-auto, ikhadi letyala, kunye nemali-mboleko yabafundi, kwaye ngaloo ndlela ukuqhubela phambili kwicala lokudodobala koqoqosho.
Le nkqubo ingentla ithatha imilinganiselo yengqondo ngaxa lithile, nto leyo eyenza kube mandundu ukuhla koqoqosho. Uloyiko kunye nokungaqiniseki malunga nokungekachazwa, ilahleko eyongezelelekileyo yebhanki ikhokelela ekungazithembini inkqubo yebhanki kunye nokuthandabuza ngakumbi ukuboleka okanye ukuboleka. Enye imeko yengqondo xa ukwesaba ilahleko kwi-subprime mortgage market kukhokelela kwiinkxalabo zelahleko kunye ne-non-subprime mortgage yokuhlala, iimarike zepropathi zorhwebo, kunye neemarike ezinxulumene ngokusondeleyo njenge-asethi yorhwebo exhaswayo. Amaxabiso okuboleka aphakama kwaye abatyali-mali bajika ekubolekeni kungekuphela nje kwi-subprime kunye neemarike ezinxulumeneyo, kodwa ezinye iimarike zorhwebo. Amaxabiso epropathi emva koko athi gqi ngeempumlo. Olu hlobo lokuthotywa kwexabiso letyala, xa lisasazeka ukusuka kwindawo ekwanti ukuya kwiimarike zetyala elinxulumeneyo, ngokwembali linxulunyaniswa noxinzelelo endaweni yokuhla koqoqosho.
Omnye umzekelo: iinkxalabo zokuba ii-inshurensi zebhondi (i-monolines) kunye nokutshintsha kwetyala lokungagqibeki kwetyala abayi kukwazi ukuhlawulela ukungagqibeki okulindelweyo kukhokelela abatyali-mali ukuba barhoxe ngamanani akhulayo nakwiimarike zetyala ezikhuselekileyo ezifana neebhondi ze-muni, malunga nesiqingatha sazo ezingekahlawulwa zi-inshorensi. Kwelinye icala, oorhulumente basekuhlaleni banciphisa inkcitho, badende abasebenzi, banciphise izibonelelo zabanye, banyuse irhafu yepropathi kunye nemirhumo eyahlukahlukeneyo, njl.njlโkonke oku kuguqulela kuxinzelelo olongezelelekileyo loqoqosho.
Umzekelo wesithathu: Ukunyuka kwelahleko yeziko lezemali kuguqulela kumazinga anyukayo kunye nokuqiniswa kwemigaqo yentengo yemboleko kubathengi kunye nababoleki beshishini. Amaxabiso ekhadi lokuthenga ngetyala ayenyuka, imiqathango iba nzima ngakumbi, iibhanki ziqala ukuhlawulisa abathengi imirhumo eyongezelelekileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso emboleko yemoto, imali mboleko yabafundi iba nzima ukuyifumana ngamaxabiso aphezulu, oorhulumente basekhaya kunye norhulumente basekhaya kufuneka bachithe ngaphezulu ukuboleka kwaye badlulisele iindleko kubemi. kwimirhumo ephezulu yendawo, irhafu yepropathi, kunye nenkcitho ephantsi (ekhokelela ekuqeshweni okuncinci okanye ukudendwa). Ukwanda, abathengi bayasilela kwimali-mboleko yemoto, yomfundi, kunye nekhadi letyala.
Cukuchasana noMgaqo-nkqubo wezeMali kunye neFiscal
Both Umgaqo-mali we-Fed kunye ne-168 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ze-Congressional cut tax cut package iya kubonisa ukuba ayanelanga kakhulu ekujonganeni nengxaki yemali ekhoyo kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho. Ukuhla ngokukhawuleza kwexabiso lentengo (oko kukuthi, ukuhla kwexabiso) ngoku kuyenzeka kwiimarike zezindlu nezakhiwo zorhwebo kwaye kungekudala kunokunwenwela kwezinye iimarike ezingezizo ezolwakhiwo njengoko kunyuka ukusilela kweshishini kunye nelahleko eyongezelelweyo yebhanki ixelwa. Ukuthotywa kwamatyala kwiimarike zezindlu nezakhiwo sisiphumo esingenakuthintelwa sokunyuka kwamaxabiso exabiso lempahla yexabiso kwangaphambili (indlu kunye nepropathi), nto leyo eveliswe luqikelelo olugqithisileyo. Uqikelelo olugqithisileyo luzala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okungaqhelekanga kwaye ekugqibeleni kanye njengokuhla kwexabiso okungaqhelekanga. Kodwa i-deflation yeyona ngozi enkulu.
Xa i-deflation deflation isasazeka ukusuka kwizindlu ukuya kwamanye amacandelo ezoqoqosho, ingxaki yokwenyani iqala. Iinkampani ezijongene neendleko ezikhulayo kunye nokungafumaneki kwemali yokuxhasa usuku nosuku ishishini, zijika ekunyuseni ingeniso kwisiseko esingxamisekileyo ngokuthengisa iimveliso zabo ngaphantsi kwamaxabiso emarike. Oku kuphakamisa ikheshi ekhawulezileyo eyimfuneko ekusebenzeni okanye nokuhlala kwishishini, kodwa imisela ukuhla kwamaxabisoโoko kukuthi, ukuhlaโokuthi ekugqibeleni kukhawulezise ilahleko kunye nesidingo sokuthotywa kwamaxabiso ngakumbi. Yiyo le nto eyohlula ngakumbi ukudakumba kwi-recession. Iinzame zokunyusa ingeniso ngokucuthwa kwamaxabiso, ngaphezu koko, kudla ngokukhatshwa neendleko zokucutha ngokudilizwa kwabantu abaninzi. Ngaloo ndlela ukunyuka kwentswela-ngqesho kukhapha ukuhla kwamandla emali ngaxeshanye. Uqoqosho lwase-US lusondela encotsheni, lusingise kwelo cala.
Unciphiso lwenzala olungaphezulu kwepesenti ezi-3 ngoMatshi ka-2008 luncede ukwehla kwengeniso yeebhanki, kodwa akubanga nampumelelo ekupheliseni ingxaki yamatyala kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho. Ingxaki iqhubekile nokuphuma kwizenzo ze-Fed njengoko amazinga enzala exesha elide enyukile kwaye oko kutyhalela phambili uqoqosho ekudodobaleni. I-Fed isenokude incedise ukudodobala koqoqosho ngokuthotywa kwayo kutshanje kwinzala yexesha elifutshane. Umzekelo, amazinga asezantsi abangele ukwehla ngokukhawuleza kwedola yaseMelika kunye nokutshintsha okukhulayo ukusuka kwidola ukuya kwi-Euro kunye nezinye iimali njengeyona ndlela ikhethwayo yorhwebo lwehlabathi kunye neentengiselwano zemali. Ingxaki yezemali iguqulela ngokukhawuleza kwingxaki yemali ehambelanayo-ekwaluphawu lokudakumba xa kuthelekiswa nokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ukuwa kwedola kukwaxhokonxa elinye iqamza lamaxabiso aqikelelwayo, ngendlela yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eemvelisoโumz., ukutya okuziinkozo, ukutya okuziinkozo, izinto ezithengiswa ekrwada, isinyithi, kunye neoyile. Njengoko idola isihla, i-OPEC kunye nabavelisi be-oyile baseMbindi Mpuma baye banyusa amaxabiso abo ukuphelisa ukuwa kotyalo-mali lwabo olubanjwe ngeedola. Amaxabiso e-oyile anyuke ngaphezu kwe-100 yeedola ngomphanda. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezithengiswayo kuguqulela kumandla ancitshisiweyo enkcitho yabathengi base-US, nto leyo enciphisa usetyenziso kakhulu, kwaye yondla ukudodobala koqoqosho. I-oyile kunye nabanye abaqikeleli bemveliso banokuwanyusa amaxabiso eoyile kunye nokutya nangakumbi ngaphambi kokuba ifike kumthengi wase-US, kodwa isenzo se-Fed siqalisa kwaye sondle yonke inkqubo. Ke ngoko, iinzame zeFed zokuthintela ukudodobala koqoqosho ngokwenene zibonelela ngefuthe elingakumbi lokudodobala koqoqosho. Ngexesha elithile i-Fed iyakuyeka ukuthoba inzala ngenxa yoko. Xa oko kusenzeka, kuya kwenzeka enye impembelelo yengqondo kwaye impembelelo iya kuba nkulu. Ngeso senzo i-Fed iya kuvuma ukuba ayinakwenza nto malunga nengxaki.
Kwicala lezemali, i-168 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zeedola (kunye noBush) iphakheji yokuvuselela uqoqosho nayo iya kubonakala ingasebenzi. Okokuqala, inxalenye elungileyo yephakheji yokucuthwa kwerhafu kukucuthwa kwerhafu yeshishini okuya kuthi ubukhulu becala kungabi nampembelelo ekuthotyweni koqoqosho. Ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho, ukuthotywa kwerhafu ephantsi kwishishini akukhuthazi utyalo-mali. Ishishini lisenokuthabatha ukucuthwa kwerhafu, kodwa lilibazise izigqibo zotyalo-mali ngelixa linciphisa ingqesho. Inxalenye elungileyo yokuthotywa kwerhafu yoshishino nayo iya kukhutshelwa ekwandisweni kwe-offshore ngamaqumrhu angayi kuba nafuthe kwiimeko zoqoqosho lwase-US, umkhwa osele usenzeka iminyaka eliqela ngoku. Okokugqibela, yeyiphi inkcitho yeshishini eyenzekayo njengesiphumo esithe ngqo sokuthotywa kwerhafu iya kuba ngaphezulu kokulungiswa kukudendwa koshishino olukhulu oluza kamva kulo nyaka.
Okuncinci kwisaphulelo serhafu sabathengi kuya kuguqulela kwinkcitho entsha. Abathengi abaninzi, ngoku basematyaleni kakhulu, baya kusebenzisa izaphulelo zokuhlawula amatyala. Mhlawumbi kuphela isithathu kwi-168 yeebhiliyoni zeedola eziya kwenza inkcitho entsha yabathengi. Kwaye loo nkcitho yabathengi iya kulungiswa kakhulu ngokucuthwa kwenkcitho kunye neentlawulo eziphezulu ngurhulumente welizwe kunye norhulumente wasekhaya, njengoko ingeniso yerhafu iyancipha ngenxa yokudodobala koqoqosho ngelixa iindleko zokuboleka zinyuka kakhulu. Phambi konyulo lukaNovemba ka-2008 kuya kucaca ngakumbi ukuba iphakheji yemali yeCongress-Bush yamva nje ibingumzekelo obalaseleyo wexesha elincinci kakhulu.
Ukuba intlekele kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho kuqhubeleka ngokukhawuleza, izisombululo ezitsha ziya kufuneka. Njengoko ngexesha le-Depression ye-1930s, izisombululo ezitsha zinokufuna ukulungiswa okukhulu kwe-Federal Reserve System, ukubuyiswa kwento efana ne-Reconstruction Finance Corp. i-arhente karhulumente yelo xesha, kunye nolawulo olusisiseko lwecandelo lezemali e-US. , kunye nokuguqulwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo ukususela kwiminyaka yee-1980 okuye kwakhokelela ekwabiweni kwakhona kwengeniso enkulu eye yondla ukugqithisa okuqikelelwayo kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje-ukubalula nje ezimbalwa.
Imeko ka-2008-09
Fulwakhiwo olungeyomfuneko kwaye kwezinye iimeko uhlaziyo olumandla kuqoqosho lwezopolitiko lwase-US luya kuba yimfuneko ukujongana nengxaki yezoqoqosho. Le ngxaki inokuquka ezinye zezi mpawu zilandelayo:
- Ukusilela okuxhaphakileyo kweshishini kunye nokudendwa okukhulu okwenzeka kamva ngo-2008 ukuya kutsho ngo-2009.
- Ukuqhubeka nokutyhilwa kwelahleko eyongezelelweyo ziibhanki kunye namaziko emali
- Ukuwa kwelinye okanye ngaphezulu kweebhanki eziqhelekileyo e-US, ukubeka ukulungiswa kwe-stock market enkulu ye-20-30 yepesenti eyongezelelweyo.
- Ukwehla ngakumbi kwe-10-20 yepesenti yeedola kwiimarike zemali zamazwe ngamazwe
- Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile kunye neemveliso zorhwebo njengoko abaxeli bangaphandle beqhubeka bethatha ithuba lengxaki yokuhla kwexabiso lezemali eMelika.
- Ukwehla kwexabiso lentengo ukusuka kwizindlu kunye nolunye utyalo-mali lwe-asethi e-US ukuya kwiimpahla kunye neenkonzo. Ingxelo ye-US (edibeneyo) yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali ye-700 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunye
- Ukukhula kokuqonda ngokubanzi ukuba imigaqo-nkqubo yezemali neyezemali iya ingasebenzi kakuhle ekujonganeni nengxaki yemali kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho.
Nabani na ongumongameli ngo-2009 ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kufuneka ajongane nenyani ekhulayo yokuba lonke uqoqosho lwehlabathi nalo luyatyibilika, kunye ne-US, ekuweni okuhambelanayo.
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UJack Rasmus ngumbhali we Imfazwe yasekhaya: Ukuhlaselwa kweNkampani ukusuka kuRonald Reagan ukuya kuGeorge W. Bush (2006) kunye IShift yoMvuzo weTriyoni yeedola: Izincoko ezingokungalingani kweMvuzo eMelika (ezayo).