UJeffrey Sommers
I
NdiseKiev njengondwendwe olutofotofo lwenkampani yaseBaltic offshore enceda iCIS
izizwe ziphephe irhafu ngokufaka kwiChannel Islands, Cyprus, the
IZiqithi zeCayman, okanye nelizwe lase-US elingekho mthethweni lebhanki laseDelaware.
Kuyavunywa ukuba, uninzi lwemithetho yerhafu yelizwe le-CIS inzima kangangokuba ishishini liya kuba njalo
ayinakwenzeka ukuba zonke zilandelwe, kodwa ndiyathandabuza nokuba iziphumo ezingcono zemithetho
kuncitshiswe kakhulu umsebenzi ongaselunxwemeni.
In
Ukongeza kwimikhosi yabadla umhlala-phantsi kunye nabasetyhini abangatshatanga abanabantwana abafuna
iikopecks ezishiyekileyo zesonka, kukho abasetyhini abancinci abazithengisayo kubo
oyena mniki maxabiso uphezulu. Umamkeli wethu wasekhaya eKiev waya kuqeqesho oluqeqeshekileyo kwaye
Irejimeni “yobuhle” wade wakhwelisa umnyhadala wasekuhlaleni owahamba nomnye wabo
iifektri zikarhulumente zamachiza. Njengomfazi wakhe ogciniweyo (ndicinga ukuba une
Umlingane naye), uyakonwabela iwonga kunye nolonwabo lweejunkethi zempelaveki ukuya eMilan
yeopera kunye nokuthatha iindawo ekuchithelwa kuzo iiholide zibalaseleyo zaseYurophu.
As
unikezelo lwabaphangi lunqongophele, abanye abafazi kufuneka bafumane enye indlela
abaxhasi. Ecaleni kwetafile yethu kukho udliwanondlebe lwaseMelika oluphakathi kweminyaka engama-50
amaqabane. Udliwano-ndlebe ubonakala ekwiminyaka yakhe yokuqala yama-20. Eyethu ingaqhelekanga
UMerika, kunye nazo zonke iimpawu zomntu oneminyaka yakhe, uzama ukufumana
into evumelanayo nebhinqa elinokungqina umfazi wakhe omtsha. Emva kwayo yonke imizamo
Ukusilela, ukhupha ukhetho lwe-failsafe yeefilimu zikaBruce Willis. Yena nje ngokungacacanga
uyamazi ukuba ungubani, kodwa ukucaphuka kwakhe kubangelwa ngumsindo angenakukwazi
xoxa ngeefilimu zalo mdlali kunye nomdla ofanayo owavela kuye. I
Ingxoxo ekugqibeleni iguqukela kwishishini, njengoko imxelela ukuba iMelika igcwele
imigibe, kwaye ukuba unethemba lokuba nayo nayiphi na impumelelo udinga isikhokelo: yena. Kaninzi
iziqholo zesidlo sangokuhlwa sangokuhlwa sinikezelwa ngabathunywa abasuka kwi
IRiphabhlikhi yaBantu baseTshayina, kubandakanywa namagosa anxibe iyunifomu, ukuba ngubani na
Uqikelelo lwengozi lukhona ukuzoba kwiintsalela zomkhosi waseUkraine
indawo yoshishino.
Njani
Ngaba iUkraine ifikile kule nto?
By
ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1990 kwakusele kubonakala ukuba iSachs/Summers Washington
Imodeli ye-Consensus ngokwenene yayiguqule izizwe ze-CIS ezenza ezokuqala
Isoviet Union. Bayibiza ngokuba “lutshintsho.” Ukanti, yayilutshintsho ukuya
ubuhlwempu kunobutyebi. Ingcamango yayikukuba ixesha elifutshane leentlungu ziya kuba
kulandele ukukhula okukhawulezayo nempumelelo yomntu wonke. Ezona zibalaseleyo eNtshona
ukusekwa iinkcubabuchopho pitched neoliberal ukothuka nostrums unyango nge
izilogeni ezilula ezinjengokuthi “awunakutsiba umwonyo ngezinyuko ezibini.” Oku kwaba njalo
ubukrelekrele obulingana ne-flubber. Inene, umntu akanakutsibela umwonyo ngaphakathi
amanyathelo amabini. Kodwa, nawe awukwazi ukutsiba umwonyo kwenye. Imiwonyo inqunyulwa
iibhulorho ezakhiwe ngononophelo, hayi ikhathuni njengokutsiba kwe-Incredible Hulk.
Abo babefanele ukuba bazi ngcono ngelo xesha, bekufanele ukuba babonile
izikweko ezineziphene ezichaza iqhinga.
As
iintsilelo zanda, uqweqwe lweengcamango oluchube ngakumbi lwavuthelwa ukuba lungabonakali
Intlekele eyandayo eyenzekayo kwi-USSR yangaphambili. E-Ukraine, enye yezona zibalaseleyo
iindawo eziphuhlisiwe eSoviet Union, ukanti yenye yezona ndawo zichaphazeleke kakhulu
inguqu, iindlela ezintsha zokuchaza iintsilelo zenziwa ukugcina a
modicum of respectability ngabathwali bengcinga entsha yophuhliso kwi
amazwe asemva kobukomanisi.
In
Ngo-1993, unozakuzaku wase-US e-Ukraine ngobuchule wathi isiphithiphithi kunye nokudala
yesityebi esitsha eklasini iqhutywa ukuya
Ukuzibandakanya kolona setyenziso lubi kakhulu, kwakufana nje ne-US Gilded Age kunye nayo
abaphangi. Oko unozakuzaku wasilela ukuyikhankanya kukuba nangona zonke
amasikizi asekupheleni kwenkulungwane ye-19, kunye nokuqokelela kwayo okuphambili
esekelwe kwingcinezelo epheleleyo yabasebenzi kunye nokuxhatshazwa ngokugqithisileyo kwe
abaphambukeli, oko ubuncinane yavelisa i-US. Ngokwahlukileyo, iintlanga zeCIS, ezifana
I-Ukraine, yayikhutshelwa ngaphandle kwemizi-mveliso ngabaphangi abatsha.
Imizi-mveliso
ayizange ibe ngumcimbi omnandi. Isoloko isondla ubuncinane isizukulwana esinye
umsebenzi wakhe wawungahlawulwanga ngokwaneleyo ukuze kuhlawulwe oomatshini, iifektri,
kunye neteknoloji. Kwi-USSR, eli xesha lancitshiswa ngexesha, kodwa ligcinwe
uloyiko olupheleleyo lwalo lonke uqokelelo lokuqala. Urhwebo lweza ngexabiso nako
phezulu ukucinga ngokuphinda. Ukanti, yayiphunyeziwe, yaye ngayo, ukuphila
imigangatho kunye nomgangatho wobomi uphuculwe ngokumangalisayo. Kanye njengokuba ulwaphulo-mthetho lwalunjalo
Iindlela zikaStalin zokurhweba, kwakungafanelekanga ukuyilahla
ngexesha lenguqu yasemva kobukomanisi. Ngaloo ndlela, iUkraine yafumana ubunzima obukhulu
tragedies: i-industrialization, eyenziwa ngeendleko eziphezulu kangaka zabantu, kwaye emva koko
i-deindustrialization ecwangcisiweyo, kunye nelahleko yazo zonke iibhenefithi zokwenziwa kwemizi-mveliso
bezise. Iindleko azibaleki. Amanani akaqondakali njenge
ukuhla iintlekele zomntu ngamnye kunye nokuthotywa komntu akunakuze kube ngokupheleleyo
ibanjwe ngangqondo-nye.
Future
namathemba
Kuninzi
Ishishini laseUkraine lalingamabhodlo. Ngokwenene, umlinganiselo omnye wayo
deindustrialization kunye nentlupheko ibe amandla Ukraine esikwe kakhulu
ukusetyenziswa. Inkqubo yayo yamandla isebenza kuphela kwisiqingatha somthamo. Uninzi lwantoni
yayinexabiso, njengoomatshini betekhnoloji ephezulu, yavuthwa kwangethuba
“utshintsho.” Akunakwenzeka ukuba esi sixhobo sinokuphinda sifumaneke kungekudala.
Ngelo xesha, i-Ukraine iyaqhubeka nokukhuphisana kwihlabathi jikelele kwintsimbi kunye
iikhemikhali. Ngokwenene, iUkraine ibhenca ubuxoki borhwebo lwasimahla kwaye ityhila i
ngokwembali umthetho wentsimbi ukuba izizwe ezityebileyo zikhusela amashishini azo, kodwa zifune
ukurhweba ngokukhululekileyo kwabanye. Intsimbi yaseUkraine ikhuphisana ngexabiso kangangokuba izizwe ezityebileyo
vala, ngakumbi i-US, kodwa ezinye zibalekela kwimarike yehlabathi.
Izinto zabucala
qhubeka. Njengamazwe amaninzi kule minyaka ingama-25 idluleyo, iUkraine iye yangena etyaleni
umgibe. Kwiintlanga ezininzi ze-CIS isivumelwano phakathi kwabo kunye neNtshona ibe kukugcina
uqoqosho lwabo luvulekile. Kufuneka bakhuphe ubutyebi obuninzi bezinto zabo ezikrwada
kunye noomatshini. Ngembuyekezo i-IMF iya kukhusela abaveleli bakarhulumente koku
inkqubo enemali eyaneleyo yokugcina amazwe abo esebenza, kunye nenani elaneleyo
amathuba okuba amagosa karhulumente akrobe. Imali ephuma kwi-CIS
amazwe angaphezulu lee koko iNtshona ikuthumele ngemali-mboleko. INtshona izuza ixesha elide
inzuzo kule nkqubo Ukraine kunye CIS izizwe ngokubanzi. Hayi kuphela
la mazwe agcinwe evulekele imali eyinkunzi kunye nezixhobo zokubalekela eNtshona, kodwa i
iintlawulo zenzala kwi-IMF kunye neemali-mboleko zabucala ziqinisekisa ukuba iipriviataztions ziyaqhubeka ngokukhawuleza.
Umzekelo, ukuze kuhlangatyezwane nale nkonzo yetyala elityumzayo iintlawulo ze-IMF, eUkraine
icinga ukuthengisa isiqingatha senkqubo yemfonomfono, i-Uktelekom. I-Ukraine iya kwenza
ulahlekelwe ngulo mthombo wengeniso yelizwe, abathengi bayo baya kuhlawula ifowuni ephezulu kakhulu
amaxabiso, anenzuzo enkulu ethunyelwe kumazwe angaphandle, kunye nembuyekezo iya kufumana kuphela a
ixesha elinye isixa isixa ukuhlawula iintlawulo yenzala kwiimali-mboleko ezenzelwe ukuthambisa
amavili oshishino lwabucala ukuqala. Ngamanye amazwi, iUkraine ayifumani nto.
Kaninzi
eyothusayo okwangoku, kukuba le nto mhlawumbi ngoyena mnyama wesibini kwihlabathi ngemveliso
ibhanti lokulima emhlabeni, lingenisa, kunokuba lithumele ngaphandle, iinkozo kunye
umgubo ngokwedatha yeSebe lezoLimo eUnited States. Okokugqibela
iinkulungwane ezimbini iUkraine ibiyeyona nto iphambili kulo lonke ihlabathi. Kanjalo,
ukusuka kwiRomanovs ukuya kuStalin, ukutya okuziinkozo eUkraine okuthengiselwa kwamanye amazwe kuxhaswe ngemali ngesiRashiya
Ukuqhuba kweshishini, kwaye emva koko wakwazi ukondla uninzi lwe-USSR.
Namhlanje, ayikwazi nokulawula ukuhlala izondla ngokwayo. Ukanti zikho
abaxhamli. Isigebenga sokusasaza ukutya okuziinkozo e-US, iCargill, sisebenza kakhulu
Ukraine, kunye nomntu wabo ophethe imisebenzi yaseUkraine esebenza njengoMongameli we
i-US Chamber of Commerce eUkraine. Ngokuqinisekileyo bazuza lukhulu
ukusuka ekuthengiseni ukutya okuziinkozo e-US ukuya e-Ukraine kwaye sijonge phambili ekulawuleni ukuthengiswa okuziinkozo ukuba
lo mmandla utyebileyo wezolimo unokuphinda ube nemveliso. Ngolunye uhlobo,
ukungenisa ukutya, okanye ukuthumela ngaphandle, iingxilimbela zokutya ezifana Cargill win, ngoxa Ukraine
ukuphulukana.
Sekunjalo,
emva kweminyaka elishumi yokuhla, kukho iimpawu zokukhula. Yevgeny Primakov waba
eziswa nguBoris Yeltsin ukuba afake i-tourniquet kwi-Yeltsin's hemorrhaging
uqoqosho ngo-1998. Wazinzisa uqoqosho lwaseRashiya, kwaye emva koko ngokukhawuleza
ukhululwe ngaphambi kokuba asongele i-oligarchy ye-Yelstin. Loo oligarchy yopha
IRashiya yomile ngelixa ikhonza umdla waseNtshona wokugcina iRashiya
ongakhuphisaniyo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, nanjengomthumeli wempahla ekrwada kunye
ongenisa impahla evela kumazwe angaphandle. Ngoqoqosho olubekwe kwi-sounder footing phantsi
Ixesha le-Primakov, uqoqosho lwaseRashiya lwaxhamla nakwezinye izinto.
Okona kwacacayo yayikukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli, kodwa okubaluleke ngakumbi, nangoku
nayo ingahoywa ngakumbi, yayiyimpembelelo yokuwa kweRuble Russian. Oku kwakungaphezulu
kunokubetha abantu abakumgangatho ophezulu eRashiya abaqhele ukuthenga izinto ezithengwa kumazwe angaphandle aseNtshona
Ixabiso eliphantsi kwimali yalo; iphinde yafaka enye itshinki
Neoliberalism sele ihlaselwe isikrweqe.
yeZizwe
ngezinto ezikrwada kunye nomthamo wemizi-mveliso unokuxhamla ekuthotyweni kwexabiso
imali exabiseke kakhulu. Ukuba imali iphantsi, bobabini banokuvelisa i
kwimakethi yasekhaya, kwaye ube nokhuphiswano lokuthumela ngaphandle kwihlabathi. Yiloo nto kanye uYeltsin
abaphezulu kunye namaqabane akhe aseNtshona basebenze ukuphepha. Abadlali abatsha baseRashiya kunye
abakumgangatho ophakathi bakhetha i-ruble enexabiso elingaphezulu elenze izinto eziphuma kumazwe angaphandle zodidi oluphezulu
ngexabiso eliphantsi, kwaye oko kwabazisela imbuyekezo entle ekuthengiseni ishishini labo
iziseko zophuhliso kunye nemathiriyeli ekrwada. Imikhosi yaseYeltsin yayihlala kakuhle, ngelixa iNtshona
izuze ngokuthengisa kwiimarike zaseRashiya kunye neCIS. Akukho mntu wayeyikhathalele
kwenziwa ngokubulala uqoqosho lwesizwe. Noko ke, le ruble iye yawa ngo-1998.
yavelisa ithuba lokuvuselela ishishini laseRashiya njengeNtshona
ukuthengwa kwempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle kuye kwabiza imali eninzi, ngaloo ndlela kwafuneka abantu bathenge iimveliso zasekuhlaleni ngohlobo
yokungenisa endaweni. Okwesihlandlo sokuqala ukususela ngowe-1991, iRashiya yanikela ubungqina
utyalo-mali kwimveliso elandela ingxaki ye-ruble ye-1998. Ukususela kwiimveliso zobisi ukuya
iimpahla zabathengi njengamatayara, abantu baphinda bathenga isiRashiya. Oku kuye kwakhokelela ekubeni
IRashiya yaphinda yaba liziko elihamba phambili kulwando olutsala amazwe angabamelwane
nayo. Ukusuka kwiBaltic ukuya eUkraine, amazwe angabamelwane acotha
ukuxhamla kwimpumelelo entsha yaseRashiya.
Yukreyini
ibona iingenelo zeshishini laseRashiya elivuselelwe ngobulali. Ngaphezu koko, i-US
uqoqosho, kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi ngokubanzi, zibonelela ngemfuno ephezulu ye-Ukraine
iimveliso ezifana nentsimbi yayo yokhuphiswano. Kuyavunywa, i-US kunye nezinye zihambele phambili
izizwe' zenza konke ezinako ukugcina le ntsimbi ingangeni kwiimarike zazo. Oku kunika
ukuxoka kurhwebo olukhululekileyo oluqhutywa ngabacwangcisi boqoqosho olutsha lwehlabathi.
I-IMF kunye neBhanki yehlabathi, zenza uhlobo olutsha lweGOSPLAN kwinkqubo yehlabathi,
kunye nee-commissars ezisebenza kwiiyunivesithi kunye namajelo eendaba ukuqinisekisa ukuba iprojekthi i
yenziwe ngengcamango eyiyo elan. Ukanti, inkunzi iyalizonda ivacuum kunye
ingaba iyayithintela imida yesizwe esityebileyo kurhwebo xa ikwazi. Ngoko, abanye
Intsimbi yaseUkraine kunye nezinye iimveliso eziphambili ziyavuza emhlabeni
imarike. Ingaphantsi kakhulu kwamandla ayo, kodwa kwanele ukuqalisa ukuvelisa ezinye
ukukhula kuqoqosho olutshatyalalisiwe lwase-Ukraine.
In
I-Ukraine ekugqibeleni ifumana ukukhula okwenyani kulo nyaka okokuqala
ixesha ukusukela oko kwaqala inguqu. Ingangqina ukukhula kwe-5% kulo nyaka emva kokuba
ishumi leminyaka lokuwa. Amanani anqabileyo kakhulu kwisizwe esiye satshona phantsi kakhulu,
kodwa yinkqubela. Izizathu zolu kukhula kuncinci ziye zavela ubukhulu becala
ukuvuza kwimigaqo-nkqubo yeMvumelwano yaseWashington kwimiba yezemali
kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wezoshishino eRashiya, kunye nokusilela okulinganiselweyo kweNtshona ngokupheleleyo
kunyanzelise ukhuseleko lwayo kumazwe ahlwempuzekileyo abancedise ukuwadala. Nye
ithemba kuphela amazwe asakhasayo anyanzeliswe ukuba athathe iyeza le-neoliberal kunye neNtshona
Iingqondi ezithengisa kuyo, qaphela….