Kajeno, la 27 Hlakubele 2014, IMF e lokolitse lintlha tse pharaletseng tsa maemo le maemo a eona bakeng sa likalimo le mehato e meng bakeng sa moruo oa Ukraine. Se boleloang ke lipehelo le maemo ao ke pholoso e fokolang ea moruo oa Ukraine ho feta ho qaleha ha khatello ea moruo e kang ea Greece bakeng sa baahi ba Ukraine.
Moruo oa Ukraine o ne o kenelletse ho putlama, e leng oa boraro ho tloha ka 2008, ka nako e 'ngoe halofo ea ho qetela ea 2013. Likhakanyo tse ling tsa morao-rao tsa ho putlama ha moruo ka 2014-15 ho tloha ho 5% -15% ho theoha ha GDP.
Sengoloa sa 'IMF Standby Agreement with Ukraine' se lokollotsoeng ka la 27 Hlakubele, se amohela ho hloka botsitso ho matla ha moruo oa moruo oa Ukraine. Seo e hlolehang ho se amohela, leha ho le joalo, ke kamoo sephutheloana sa IMF se tla ama moruo oo hampe.
Tumellano ea IMF e batla $14-$18 bilione ho tšehetso ea lichelete ea IMF e fanoeng lilemong tse peli tse tlang, 2014-15. E 'ngoe e ka bang $9 billion ho tlalehoa e tla tsoa linaheng tse ling, leha e le ka sebopeho se sa hlalosoang. European Bank for Reconstruction & Development ho bonahala e tla fana ka lidolara tse libilione tse peli tsa $2 bilione eo. Mohlomong sephutheloana sa lithuso sa US se ka bang $ 9- $ 1 billion hajoale se ntse se sebetsa ho US Congress se emetse karolo e 'ngoe ea $2 billion. Lidolara tse 9 tse setseng tsa $5 bilione tsa lichelete tseo e seng tsa IMF ha li e-so tsejoe.
Kakaretso ea lidolara tse libilione tse 27 e feta liranta tse libilione tse 15 tseo ho neng ho buua ka tsona libekeng tse fetileng ke boralitaba ba sechaba le chelete e fetang limilione tse likete tse 20 ea Ukraine e neng e kopile IMF bofelong ba 2013 - e leng sesupo sa hore moruo o ntse o putlama. ka potlako ho feta kamoo ho tlalehiloeng ho tloha qalong ea 2014.
Lihloohong tse fetileng tse buang ka boemo ba moruo ba Ukraine libekeng tse ’maloa tse fetileng, mongoli enoa o hakantse hore bonyane ho tla hlokahala liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 50 ho tsitsisa moruo oa Ukraine lilemong tse peli tse tlang. Palo eo e ka ba ea nyoloha ka 2015.
Phatlalatso ea IMF ea la 27 Hlakubele e bua ka seo e se nkang e le mefokolo ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa ea moruo oa moruo oa Ukraine o hlokang tlhokomelo e potlakileng le e tsepamisitsoeng. Mefokolo eo e kenyelletsa khaello ea hajoale ea khoebo ea Ukraine, lichelete tsa eona tse ntseng li theoha ka potlako tsa lichelete tsa machaba, khaello ea tekanyetso ea lichelete ea k'hamphani ea eona ea naha ea Naftogaz.
IMF e hakanya hore khaello ea khoebo ea Ukraine (litheko tse tsoang kantle ho naha) hoo e ka bang 9% ea GDP (liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 17 ka selemo) e bakiloe ke litheko tse thellang tsa Ukraine. Seo IMF e se hlahisang e le ho rarolla bothata bona ke ho lumella chelete ea Ukraine hore e tsoele pele ho 'phaphamala ka bolokolohi haholoanyane'. Chelete ea Ukraine ho fihlela joale ho 2014 e se e oele 26% ho dollar. Kahoo mohopolo ke ho lumella chelete hore e fokotsehe le ho feta. Ka khopolo, seo se tla etsa hore li-export tsa Ukraine li be le tlholisano le ho fokotsa khaello ea khoebo. Bothata ke hore e tla boela e hlahise ho phahama ho hoholo ha theko ea thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling 'me ka hona inflation bakeng sa malapa a Ukraine. Leano la IMF la ho khothaletsa ho fokotseha ho hoholo ha chelete, ka mantsoe a mang, le tla bolela ho theoha ha theko ea lichelete le ho feta ka lapeng, haholo-holo ho ama malapa, ka hona ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea chelete ea malapa thepa le litšebeletso tse ling.
Ho lumella chelete hore e fokotsehe hape ho fana ka maikutlo a hore leano la IMF ke hore banka e bohareng ea Ukraine e se ke ea kenella ka mabifi likhoeling tse tlang ho tšehetsa chelete limmarakeng tsa lefatše. Seo se lokolla chelete e ngata ea IMF ho fana ka litefo tsa mekoloto ho libanka tsa bophirima bakeng sa likalimo tsa hajoale le tse fetileng. Joalo ka ha polelo ea IMF e bontša, "litefello tse kholo tsa mekoloto ea kantle ho naha li atametse ka 2014-15." Chelete ea litefello tsa melato e hakanyetsoang ho $ 6.2 bilione. Kahoo malapa a Ukraine ka karolo e 'ngoe a tla lefa litefo tsa mekoloto ho libanka tsa bophirima ka ho tlameha ho ikamahanya le theko e phahameng le ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea bona ea 'nete.
Ka lebaka la hore $ 6.2 bilione ea $27 bilione ea IMF e tla thusa ho lefa mekoloto ho ea bophirima, ho boetse ho bolela hore ke hoo e ka bang $21 bilione ea chelete eohle ea IMF e setseng ho matlafatsa moruo oa Ukraine. Empa lentsoe la bohlokoa mona ke 'mohlomong', kaha chelete e ka tlase ho $21 bilione e tla kena moruong - 'me e tla koaheloa ke "ho ntšoa" ho feta ho latela tumellano ea IMF.
Ente ea IMF ea $21 bilione ke thetso ea moruo. Mona ke lebaka.
Taba ea pele, moruo oa Ukraine o tla theoha ka lebaka la sephutheloana sa IMF hobane mehato ea IMF e hloka liphetoho tse kholo melaong ea lichelete le ea lichelete tsa Ukraine tse tla fokotsa butle, eseng ho tsosa moruo oa Ukraine.
Ka mohlala, polelo ea IMF e hloka leano la lichelete le lebisitseng "botsitso ba theko ea malapeng ha u ntse u boloka tekanyo ea phapanyetsano e feto-fetohang". Seo se bolelang ke hore banka e bohareng, Banka ea Naha ea Ukraine (NBU), e tla hlokoa ke IMF ho fokotsa phepelo ea chelete ea Ukraine mme ka hona e phahamise sekhahla sa tsoala ea lehae, e le karolo ea "leano le lebisitseng ho inflation nakong ea likhoeli tse leshome le metso e 'meli tse tlang. ho tiisa ka tieo litebello tsa inflation.” Ho tlosa mantsoe a moruo, se bolelang ke hore pholisi ea NBU le IMF e phahamisang phaello e tla liehisa moruo e le ho felisa likhatello tse lebeletsoeng tsa theko e tsoang linaheng tse ling tse tla etsahala ka lebaka la ho theoha ho eketsehileng ha chelete. Leano leo la ho nyolla sekgahla sa tswala le reretsweng ho fokotsa phallo e lebeletsweng ya ho reka kantle ho naha le tla fokotsa moruo wa nnete le ho feta. 'Me seo se fetolela tahlehelo e 'ngoe ea mesebetsi ha likhoebo li fokotsa tlhahiso ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse ntseng li eketseha tsa tsoala.
Empa seo ha se halofo ea eona. Mehato ea IMF e ke ke ea fella feela ka ho phahama ha theko ea lichelete tse tsoang linaheng tse ling, empa e tla hlahisa likhatello tse kholo le ho feta ka lebaka la mantsoe a laetsoeng ke IMF a amanang le khase ea tlhaho ea Ukraine. Likhakanyo ke hore litheko tsa khase ea tlhaho li tla nyoloha ka 79% ka lebaka la keketseho e laetsoeng ke IMF ea 50% ea litheko tsa khase. Ka nako e le 'ngoe, ha theko ea khase e ntse e eketseha lithuso tsa khase malapeng li tla felisoe ka botlalo nakong ea lilemo tse peli tse tlang, ho latela tumellano ea IMF.
Ho tlalehiloe hore lithuso tsa khase malapeng li lekana le 7.5% ea GDP ea Ukraine. Kahoo ho felisa litšehetso tsa khase ho bolela ho fokotseha ha tšebeliso ea liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 6.5 ka selemo, kaha malapa a tla tlameha ho fokotsa tšebeliso e 'ngoe ho lefa hona joale bakeng sa ho nyoloha ha theko ea khase le karolo eohle ea ho tsoa ho lithuso tsa khase.
Karolo eo ea lithuso tsa khase le keketseho ea 79% ea theko ea khase e bolela ho fokotseha ha liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 13 ho sebelisoa ha sebele ka lilemo tse peli, 2014-15. $ 13 bilione eo e fokotsa chelete e setseng ea $ 21 billion ea sephutheloana sa IMF e ntse e tsoela pele, e siea feela $ 8 bilione molemong oa ts'usumetso e setseng ea moruo oa 'nete ho tsoa tumellanong ea IMF. Leha ho le joalo, seo e ntse e se setšoantšo sohle sa tšebetso ea IMF e mpe moruong oa Ukraine.
Tumellano ea IMF e boetse e hloka liphetoho tsa 'Leano la Lichelete', kapa seo e se bitsang tlhoko ea "ho kenya tšebetsong phetoho e tebileng ea lichelete" e tla "fokotsa bofokoli ba lichelete ho isa ho 2.5% ea GDP ka 2016." Ho fokotsa chelete ea 2.5% ho emela $ 4.5 limilione tse likete ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tsa selemo le selemo tsa 'muso oa Ukraine (le / kapa ho phahama ha lekhetho), mohlomong lilemong tse peli tse latelang.
Ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea chelete ha ho pelaelo hore ho tla tsoa ho phokotso ea mesebetsi ea mmuso le ho fokotsa meputso bakeng sa basebetsi ba setseng ba mmuso. Hape ha ho pelaelo hore e tla kenyelletsa ho fokotseha ho tebileng ho tsamaiso ea penshene e amang batho bohle ba penshene, eo ba bang ba hakanyang e tla bolela ho fokotseha ha penshene ho fihlela ho 50% ka 2016. Ho ka etsahala hore $ 4.5 ho $ 9 limilione tse likete ho fokotsa bofokoli ba 'muso nakong ea 1 e latelang ho 2. lilemo li tla bolela ho nyolloa ha lekhetho la thekiso bakeng sa malapa a bareki ha lekhetho le khaoloa bakeng sa likhoebo, kaha polelo ea IMF ea la 27 Hlakubele e boetse e batla "mehato ea ho tsamaisa puseletso ea VAT (lekhetho la boleng bo eketsehileng) ho likhoebo".
Polelong ea eona ea la 27 Hlakubele IMF ha e so hlalose ka ho khetheha mosebetsi o hlokahalang, meputso le phokotso ea penshene. E emetse ka ho hlaka hore mmuso oa nakoana oa Ukraine o tla inkela maqeba ao a moruo le ho batho ba Ukraine, ka mor'a moo IMF Management and Executive Board e tla amohela tumellano e fanoeng.
Ho akaretsa, selekane sa IMF sa la 27 Hlakubele se hloka ho lefa libanka tsa bophirima le ba alimang $ 6.5 bilione lilemong tse peli tse tlang litefong tsa litšebeletso tsa mekoloto. E boetse e hloka phokotso ea lithuso tsa khase ea malapeng ka lidolara tse libilione tse 13 hammoho le kakaretso ea lithuso tsa khase. 'Me ka tsela e sa tobang e batla hore mmuso oa Ukraine o fokotse tšebeliso ea chelete ka bonyane $8 bilione (2.5% of GDP) lilemong tse peli tse tlang - ka mokhoa oa ho fokotsa mesebetsi ea mmuso, ho fokotsa meputso bakeng sa basebetsi ba mmuso, le phokotso ea litefo tsa penshene tse ka bang teng. 50% bakeng sa batho ba pensheneng ka kakaretso.
Eketsa tseo tsohle, mme ha ho makatse hore ebe e ka ba $27 billion. Ke $27 bilione ea tšebeliso ea moruo le khothatso e nkiloeng moruong oa 'nete oa Ukraine ho latela tumellano ea IMF. Ka mantsoe a mang, hoo e ka bang $ 27 billion eo IMF e reng e tla fana ka eona ho GDP ho latela phatlalatso ea la 27 Hlakubele. Ho bolelang hore malapa a Ukraine a tla lefella sephutheloana sa IMF sa lidolara tse libilione tse 27 ka litheko tse phahameng tsa khase, ho felisoa ha lithuso tsa khase, ho fokotsa mesebetsi ea mmuso le meputso, le phokotso e kholo ea lipenchene.
Empa lidolara tse libilione tse 27 ehlile ha se 'khoebo le eona'. Ehlile ke ts'usumetso e mpe ea Ukraine ka lebaka la sebopeho sa tumellano ea IMF. Hopola, chelete ea lidolara tse libilione tse 6.2 ea litefo tsa mekoloto tse tsoang bophirima e ke ke ea ba le phello e ntle ho GDP ea Ukraine. Ka hona, pele ho tsohle, ke IMF feela e entseng chelete e kaalo ka $21 billion ''in'' khahlano le lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 27 tsa Ukraine tse "tsoang" moruong ho latela litlhoko tsa IMF. Empa le $21 billion 'in' vs. $27 billion 'out' ha se khakanyo ea 'nete.
Lidolara tse libilione tse 27 tse nkiloeng li bonts'a tšebeliso ea chelete ea bareki ka tlung e kholo ho feta $21 bilione ea chelete e kenang Ukraine ke IMF. Haeba motho a e-na le phello e tsitsitseng ea 1.5, chelete e nkiloeng moruong oa Ukraine e batla e tšoana le liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 40 lilemong tse peli tse tlang - chelete e ngata e fanoeng ke hore GDP ea Ukraine ka 2012 e ne e se chelete e fetang $ 175 'me e ne e bataletse ka 2013. . Ehlile, $40 billion 'out' e lokisoa ke $21 billion 'in' le phello ea eona e ngatafatsang. Empa leha "out" ea lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 40 e tla etsahala, ha ho na tiisetso ea hore ente ea IMF "in" ea $21 bilione e tla etsahala ka ho latellana.
Ha ho pelaelo hore tse ling tsa lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 21 li tla 'behelloa ka thoko' ke banka e bohareng ea Ukraine ho khutlisa mehloli ea eona ea lichelete tsa kantle ho naha, kajeno e ka bang $10 bilione kapa ka tlase ho moo. E 'ngoe ea eona e tla sebelisoa ho thusa likhoebo tsa Ukraine ho reka thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling tsa Europe, ho nahanoang hore e tla nyoloha haholo ha chelete ea Ukraine e ntse e theoha. 'Me tse ling tsa tsona li tla ea ho likalimo tse tsoang ho NBU ho ea likhoebong tsa Seukraine tse tla bokella chelete le ho se e sebelise ho atolosa tlhahiso. Sena sohle se bolela hore mohlomong ha ho halofo ea chelete e fetang halofo ea $21 bilione ea IMF e tla ama moruo oa 'nete oa Ukraine. Ka lebaka la 'ho lutla' hona, litlamorao tse ngatafatsang tsa liente tsa IMF ntle le pelaelo li tla ipaka li le mpe. Ha ho utloahale ho nahana hore ha ho chelete e fetang $10 billion ea IMF ea $21 billion e tla kena moruong oa 'nete oa Ukraine e le khothatso.
Seo se siea chelete e kaalo ka $10 bilione lilemong tse peli tse tlang, e tlositsoe ke "multiplier" ea phokotso ea $40 bilione moruong oa 'nete lilemong tse peli tse tlang. Phokotso e felletseng ea GDP ea Ukraine ea lidolara tse libilione tse 30 lilemong tse peli tse tlang, kapa hoo e ka bang lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 15 ka selemo, e emetse phokotseho ea GDP ea bonyane 18%. 'Me ke khatello ea maikutlo e kang Greece.
Ka ho kenya moruo oa Ukraine ho Eurozone, ea morao-rao e hlile e nka tlas'a lepheo la eona la moruo hape 'Greece' le 'Spain'. 'Me joalo ka tabeng ea moruo oa morao-rao, ba tla lefa e ke ke ea e-ba bo-rakhoebo le bo-rakhoebo ba lichaba tse ngata, empa ke batho ba Ukraine. Empa eo ke nalane ea bohlokoa le e phetoang le lefa la litšebelisano tsa IMF lefatšeng ka bophara lilemong tse mashome a mararo tse fetileng.
Dr. Jack Rasmus ke sengoli sa libuka tsa 2010 le 2012, "Epic Recession: Prelude to Global Depression" le "Economy's Obama: Recovery for the Few", Pluto Presss, 2010 le 2012. O tsamaisa lenaneo la beke le beke la seea-le-moea, 'Alternative Visions. ', ho Progressive Radio Network naheng ea USA. Webosaete ea hae e www.kyklosproductions.com mme blog ea hae ke jackrasmus.com. Motsoalle oa hae oa twitter ke @drjackrasmus.
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1 Comment
Joalo ka ha Ukraine e fumana ka masoabi, ha u hloke tlhaselo ho beta le ho tlatlapa naha. Li-oligarchs li ka e etsa ntle le ho thunya - li sa bale li-snipers tsa tsona. Bophirima bo lebisitse tlhokomelo ho Crimea ho senya tlhokomelo ho se tla etsahala ho batho ba Ukraine. Crimea penshene e tla batla e imenne habeli, Ukraine e tla khaoloa ka halofo. Lithuso tse "tšepisitsoeng" tsa liranta tse libilione tse 21 kaofela li tla ea libankeng tsa Bophirimela le li-oligarchs, athe batho ba Ukraine ba tla sebetsa e le basebetsi ba letsatsi Russia. Selemong se fetileng feela batho ba ka bang limilione tse 3 ba fumane mesebetsi Russia. Ka 2013 meputso ea bona naheng ea Russia e ile ea feta $20 bilione, e leng hoo e ka bang 12% ea GDP ea Ukraine.