Although the place and time of the next round of talks on Iran’s nuclear programme have not yet been announced, the manoeuvring by Iran and the United States to influence the outcome has already begun.
Iran e ile ea batla tšehetso bakeng sa tlhahiso e nchafalitsoeng ea lipuisano nakong ea Seboka se Akaretsang sa Machaba a Kopaneng (UNGA) khoeling e fetileng, ho ea ka tlaleho ea New York Times Oct. 4. Joale, matsatsi a seng makae feela hamorao, tsamaiso ea Barack Obama e ile ea qala tlhaselo ea pele ho moo. tlhahiso ka moqolotsi oa litaba oa New York Times David Sanger.
The officials suggested the Iranian proposal would give Iran an easier route to a “breakout” to weapons grade uranium enrichment. But that claim flies in the face of some obvious realities.
An Oct. 4 story by Sanger reported that Iran had begun describing a “9-step plan” to diplomats at the UNGA and quoted administration officials as charging that the proposal would not “guarantee that Iran cannot produce a weapon”. Instead, the officials argued, it would allow Iran to keep the option of resuming 20-percent enriched uranium, thus being able to enrich to weapons grade levels much more quickly.
Iran’s nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili issued a denial that Iran had “delivered any new proposal other than what had been put forward in talks with the P5+1″. But that statement did not constitute a denial that Iran was discussing such a proposal, because the Times story had said the proposal had been initially made to European officials during the P5+1 meeting in Istanbul in July.
Basebeletsi ba tsamaiso ea Obama ba ile ba tletleba ka hore, tlas'a morero oa Iran, Iran e tla etsa "ho emisa" ho ntlafatsa karolo ea 20 lekholong feela ka mor'a hore likotlo tsa oli li tlosoe 'me lekhetho la oli le ntse le phalla hape.
Tlhaloso eo ea tlhahiso e lumellana le Iranian "moralo oa mehato e mehlano”, e hlahisitsoeng nakong ea lipuisano le P5+1, eo mongolo oa eona o hatisitsoeng ke Arms Control Today lehlabuleng le fetileng. Tlhahisong eo, P5 + 1 e ka be e felisitse likotlo tsohle khahlanong le Iran ka mohato oa pele le oa bobeli, empa Iran e ka be e felisitse ho rua ha eona karolo ea 20 lekholong feela mohatong oa bohlano.
In that same final step, however, Iran also would have closed down the Fordow enrichment plant and transferred its entire stockpile of 20-percent enriched uranium to “a third country under IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) custody”.
Iran has made clear that it intends to use the 20-percent enrichment as bargaining leverage to achieve an end to the most damaging economic sanctions.
Moemeli Seyed Hossein Mousavian, 'muelli oa sehlopha sa lipuisano tsa nyutlelie sa Iran ho tloha ka 2003 ho isa 2005 eo hona joale e leng setsebi se etileng Univesithing ea Princeton, o bolelletse IPS, "Iran e ikemiselitse ho emisa ho rua ka 20% le ho theohela ka tlase ho liperesente tse hlano. Potso ke hore na P5 + 1 e tla fana ka eng ho khutlisa. Ha feela boemo ba tumellano e felletseng bo sa hlake bakeng sa Iran, e ke ke ea nahana ka ho emisa ntlafatso ka liperesente tse 20. "
But the administration’s portrayal of the Iranian proposal as offering a sanctions-free path to continued 20-percent enrichment is highly misleading, according to close observers of the Iran nuclear issue. It also ignores elements of the proposal that would minimise the risk of a “breakout” to enrichment of uranium to weapons grade levels.
Ho nyatsa ha tsamaiso ea Obama mabapi le tlhahiso eo, joalo ka ha ho tlalehiloe ke Sanger, ho ile ha etsoa ka mokhoa oa ho lokafatsa ho hana ha US ho bua ka ho tlosa likotlo ho thepa ea oli ea Iran nakong ea lipuisano tse 'ne le Iran. Ofisiri e kholo ea tsamaiso e qotsitsoe a re Iran "e ka qala lenaneo hape ka nanosecond," athe "ho tla nka lilemo" ho beha likotlo hape.
Paul Pillar, ofisiri ea naha ea bohlale ea Near East le Asia Boroa ho tloha 2000 ho isa 2005, o boletse tlhalosong ea The National Interest hore "ho bonolo haholo ho beha likotlo ho Iran ho feta ho li tlosa" le hore haeba Iran e ka hana tumellano ea nyutlelie. , “ho ntse ho tla ba bonolo.”
Peter Jenkins, moemeli oa ka ho sa feleng oa Borithane ho IAEA ho tloha 2001 ho ea 2006, o hlokometse ka lengolo-tsoibila ho IPS hore ho nkile EU likhoeli tse peli feela ho lumela ho beha likotlo tsa oli, le hore "ho hanyetsa lipolotiking har'a 27 (linaha tsa litho tsa EU) ho beha likotlo tsa oli mohlomong ho ne ho tla fokotseha haeba ho etsoa hape ho ne ho hlokahala ka ho tlola tumellano ea Iran le P5 + 1. "
Jenkins o bontšitse hore theko ea oli ea EU e tsoang Iran joale e na le boiphihlelo ba ho fumana thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling e ka etsang hore ho be bonolo ho beha likotlo.
One U.S. official was quoted by Sanger as complaining that the Iranian proposal would allow Iran to “move the fuel around, and it stays in the country”. That description appeared to hint that the purpose is to give Tehran the option of a breakout to weapons grade enrichment.
But the biggest difference between the proposal now being discussed by Iranian diplomats and the one offered last summer is that the new proposal reflects the reality that Iran began last spring to convert 20-percent enriched uranium into U308 in powdered form for fuel plates for its Tehran Research Reactor.
The conversion of 20 percent enriched uranium to U308, which was documented but not highlighted in the Aug. 30 IAEA report, makes it more difficult to use that same uranium for enrichment to weapons grade levels.
Tlhahiso e ncha ea Iranian e bonts'a hore uranium ea U308 e ntse e le naheng hore e sebelisoe ke Tehran Research Reactor ho fapana le hore pokello eohle ea uranium e ntlafalitsoeng ea 20% e romelloe naheng e 'ngoe joalo ka tlhahiso ea eona e fetileng.
Former State Department official Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, who has argued in the past that the only purpose Iran could have in enriching to 20 percent is a nuclear weapon, told the Times that the conversion “tends to confirm that there is civilian purpose in enriching to this level”.
Empa Fitzpatrick o ile a bolella Times hore Ma-Irani a tseba ho fetola phofo ea U308 ho khutlela mofuteng oa khase o ka sebelisoang bakeng sa ho matlafatsa boemo ba libetsa. Fitzpatrick o itse: "Ho ke ke ha nka nako e telele ho e qala.
In an interview with IPS, Dr. Harold A. Feiveson, a senior research scientist at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson’s school and a specialist on nuclear weapons, said “it would not be super hard” to carry out such a reconversion.
But Feiveson admitted that he is not aware of anyone ever having done it. The reconversion to 20 percent enrichment “would be pretty visible” and “would take some time,” said Feiveson. “You would have to kick the (IAEA) inspectors out.”
Even Israeli policymakers have acknowledged that Iran’s diversion of 20-percent enriched uranium represents a step away from a breakout capability, as Haaretz reported Oct. 9.
Defence ministry sources told the Israeli daily that the Iran’s reduction of its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium had added “eight months at least” to what the Israeli government has cited as its “deadline” on Iran. The same sources said it was the justification for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dropping the threat of attack on Iran in his U.N. speech.
Phokotso e tebileng ea lekeno la oli ea Iran ho tsoa likotlong le ho putlama ha morao ha boleng ba chelete ea Iran ho kanna ha etsa hore Iran e be le thahasello ea ho sekisetsa ho feta ha lipuisano le P5 + 1 li qala ka Mmesa.
Mousavian told IPS, “I am convinced that Iran is ready for a package deal based on recognition of two principles.” The first principle, he said, is that “Iran recognises the P5+1 concerns and will remove all such concerns”; the second is that the P5+1 “recognises the rights of Iran and gradually lifts sanctions”.
Empa moetapele ea phahameng oa Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei o bontšitse lipelaelo tse tebileng mabapi le hore na tsamaiso ea Obama e ikemiselitse ho felisa likotlo tsa Iran tlas'a maemo afe kapa afe. Puong ea Oct. 10, Khamenei o itse Maamerika a "leshano" ka ho fana ka maikutlo a hore likotlo li tla tlosoa e le hore Iran e fane ka lenaneo la eona la nyutlelie.
Ba boholong ba US "ba etsa liqeto ka lehloeo le lehloeo (ho ea Iran)", Khamenei o itse.
*Gareth Porter, an investigative historian and journalist specialising in U.S. national security policy, received the UK-based Gellhorn Prize for journalism for 2011 for articles on the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
ZNetwork e tšehelitsoe ka lichelete feela ka seatla se bulehileng sa babali ba eona.
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