Gwaro richangoburwa revashandi vekuAmerica rinoti hupfumi hweUS huchiri pasi pemamiriro ekunze - kunyangwe chando chegore rino chiri kudziya zvisingaite.

Iyo Kurume yemabasa data yakaratidza kuti hupfumi hweUS hwakagadzira chete mabasa zana nemakumi maviri mumwedzi. Izvi zvakanonoka zvakanyanya kupfuura avhareji ye120,000 yemwedzi mitatu yapfuura. Pakarepo vatauri vakatanga kunetseka pamusoro pesimba rekupora uye kushamisika kana mwero wekushaya basa ucharamba uchinyura mumwedzi iri mberi.

Kutaura zvazviri, nhamba dzaMarch dzaisafanira kunge dzakauya sechishamiso chikuru kune chero munhu. Dambudziko riri pano nderimwe revanofanotaura vasingachinji vanofurirwa zvakanyanya nemishumo yazvino uye vanoramba vachitadza kuisa data rehupfumi mune yakakura mamiriro.

Mishumo yakawanda yehupfumi yakaburitswa muna Zvita, Ndira naKukadzi, yaive yakasimba zvine musoro. Zvakadaro, zvaifanira kunge zviri pachena kuti kudziya kwekunze munzvimbo zhinji dzenyika ndicho chinhu chakakosha mukusimudzira hupfumi panguva iyi.

Kazhinji, kune huwandu hwemadutu echando akanyanya uye kutonhora kuNortheast neMidwest mumwedzi yechando. Izvi zvinononoka kutanga zvirongwa zvokuvaka uye zvinowanzoita kuti zvirongwa zvinoramba zvichiitwa zvivharwe kwemazuva kana kuti mavhiki. Mamiriro ekunze akaipa zvakare anoodza moyo vanhu kuenda kunotenga, kunyanya kune zvinhu zvikuru zvematikiti semota. Ivo zvakare kashoma kuti vaende kunodya kumaresitorendi kana migwagwa yakafukidzwa nechando kana tembiricha iri pasi pe zero. Dzimwe nguva mafekitari anotovhara apo sinou inorema inovadzivisa kuwana mativi anodiwa.

Mamiriro okunze akanaka zvikuru munguva ino yechando aireva kuti hatina kuona kuderera kwemabasa nekukura zvataizotarisira. Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo data yaitaridzika zvakanaka zvisingaite.

Nekudaro mhedzisiro yemwaka inoshanda mumativi ese. Kana vashandi vekuvaka vakaramba vari pabasa nguva yese yechando, saka havazoratidzike mudhata sevashandi vatsva muchirimo. Izvi zvinoshandawo kune vashandi vari muzvitoro zvinotengesa, maresitorendi uye mamwe ese mativi ehupfumi angangoona akakwira kupfuura mabasa akajairwa mukati memwedzi yechando nekuda kwemamiriro ekunze. Nguva yechando yakanaka zvisina kujairika, ichareva isina kusimba pane yakajairika chirimo.

Iyi ndiyo nyaya inofanirwa kuchengetwa mupfungwa kana uchitarisa iyo March mabasa data. Sezvo mwedzi yechando yakawedzera mwero chaiwo wekukura kwebasa, nhamba dzeKurume dzakapotsa dzadzikisira mwero wekukura. Chiyero chechokwadi chichava pane imwe nzvimbo pakati.

Aka hakasi kekutanga kuti vafemberi vehupfumi vafurirwa zvakanyanya nekuburitswa kwedata kwazvino. Zhizha rapfuura, mishumo yakati wandei isina kusimba yehupfumi, kunyanya isingasviki 1.0 muzana yehuwandu hwepagore yekukura kweGDP muhafu yekutanga ya2011, yakatungamira vezvehupfumi vazhinji kuti vasimudze kutya kwekuderera-kuderera kwemari.

Muchokwadi, kutarisisa kwe data kwakaratidza kuti kunyura kaviri-kwaive kusingaite. Kukura muhafu yekutanga ya2011 kwakange kwanyanya kuodzwa mwoyo nekupera kwekukurudzira kwaPresident Obama. Kungofanana nekutanga kwekukurudzira kwakapa kukurudzira kwakakosha mukukura mu2009 uye hafu yekutanga ye2010; kufefeterwa kwacho kwaiva bviro yakakomba yokukweva kukura.

Kudzikira kwekushandiswa kwehurumende kwakaderedza zvakananga kukura neinodarika 1.0 percent pahafu yekutanga ya2011, paine kukonzeresa kwemari yekubhadhara yakaderera ichiwedzera imwe dhiri. Zvakadaro apo mari yekukurudzira yakange yapera, bviro iyi yekudhonza yakanyangarika, zvichibvumira hupfumi kuti hutangezve imwe nzira inoremekedzwa yekukura.

Sezvazvakazoitika, kukura kwakasvika 2.4 muzana pachikamu chechipiri chegore ra2011. Ichi hachisi chiyero chakasimba chekukura, kunyanya tichifunga nezvehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehupfumi hunosara kubva pakuderera; zvisinei kuti iri kure nekunyudzwa kaviri kwatakayambirwa. 

Iyi ndiyo nyaya huru yatakaona kubva pakatanga kupora muzhizha ra2009. Hupfumi hwanga huchikura uye huchiwedzera mabasa, asi mwero wacho hauna kusimba zvakanyanya kana tichitarisa kuoma kwekuderera. Chiyero chiri pasi pekukura chingangoita pakati pe2.5 kusvika 3.0 muzana nehupfumi huchiwedzera mabasa anosvika mazana maviri ezviuru pamwedzi.

Huwandu hunofungidzirwa hunoita kuti hupfumi hwenyika husvike pazvikamu zvitanhatu nechidimbu kubva muzana pazasi pehuwandu hwahwo hwekubuda. Nekugona kubuda kunokwira pamwero wepedyo ne6.0 muzana pagore, 2.5 muzana yekukura kwepagore inogona kureva makore gumi nemaviri kusvika hupfumi hwadzokera kune inogona kuitika GDP.

Saizvozvo, basa rinomira parinoda kusvika mamirioni gumi pasi peyaro pre-recession trend level. Hupfumi hunoda kuunza mabasa anosvika miriyoni imwe pagore kuti zvifambirane nekukura kwevashandi. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kana hupfumi huri kuunza mabasa mazana maviri pamwedzi zvinozotora makore anodarika manomwe kuti vadzoke padanho rakazara remabasa.

Iyi inyaya yakavakirwa pane zviri pasi pemaitiro ehupfumi hweUS. Haisi iyo njodzi inogona kurehwa nekudzikira kwakapetwa kaviri, asi hausi mufananidzo wekupora kwakasimba uye hupfumi hwakabudirira.

Nehurombo, nekuti kushuma kwehupfumi muUnited States kunodzorwa nekushanduka kwenguva pfupi mudata, pane mukana mudiki wehurukuro yezviri kuitika. Nekuda kweizvozvo, pane chikonzero chidiki chekutarisira chero shanduko yepolicy iyo inogona kutungamirira kune yakasimba kupora.

Dean Baker ndiye Co-director weCentre for Economic and Policy Research muWashington DC

  

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