The October 2 edition yeNikkei, pepanhau guru rebhizimisi reJapan, rakaita ongororo, yakaitwa naPurofesa weYunivhesiti yeTokyo Kikkawa Takeo, yemabhuku maviri achangobva kushandurwa anotaura nezvemafuta akanyanya. Sekuziva kunoita vaverengi vazhinji, peak oiri ndiyo dzidziso yekuti mafuta epasi rose ave kuda kukwira mukugadzirwa uye obva adzikira zvisingachinjike, zvichikonzera matambudziko akakura kunharaunda dzedu dzinotsigira mafuta. Mabhuku aNikkei akasarudza kudzokorora ndeaPaul Robert's "Kupera Kwemafuta," uye Linda McQuaig's "It's the Crude, Dude: War, Big Oil, and the Fight for the Planet" (iyo yekupedzisira inonzi "Peak Oil" muchiJapanese. ) Iyo Nikkei inopa peak mafuta dzidziso inowana zvigunwe pasi. Ongororo iyi inodudza chinyorwa cha2005 Nikkei "Kuverenga Mafuta" (Sekiyu wo Yomu), iyo inopokana kuti tekinoroji nekudyara kutsva kuchawedzera mafuta ekudzoreredza mitengo uye kuve nechokwadi chitsva chakawanikwa. Uye kugumisa kupokana, kukwidzwa kune vane masimba: chinyorwa chiri muna Chivabvu 2005 edition yeJapan Oiri uye Natural Gasi Ongororo iyo inorasa dzidziso yemafuta epamusoro.
Kune rumwe rutivi, sezvatinogona kuona neshanduro yechiJapan yebhuku raMcQuaig kuwana zita rekuti โPeak Oilโ, pane kuwedzera kufarira nyaya yacho muJapan. Vapepeti veNikkei, vachinyatsofuratira mafuta epamusoro kusvika zvino, vakafunga kuti zvaive zvakakodzera kutakura chimwe chinhu chinozorodza pamusoro payo. Saka ongororo inobvuma kuti peak oiri dzidziso sechiitiko chemagariro inofanirwa kutariswa. Munyori, Kikkawa, anotaura kuti Japan ingori shure kweAmerica neChina mukushandiswa kwayo kwemafuta, asi iyo yakasiyana navo ine hutsika husina simba hwekutarisira kuchengetedzwa kwesimba. Mushandirapamwe unotungamira sarudzo dzemusi wa11 Gunyana wakanyanya kukosha nekusavepo kwekutaura mumapuratifomu emapato ari kukwikwidza. Ramba uchifunga kuti Japan haina matura emafuta uye gasi mudzimba, uye inovimba neAmerica kuchengetedza nzira dzegungwa kubva kuMiddle East (kubva uko Japan inowana 85% yemafuta ayo). Kikkawa inotsigira kuti kushushikana kweJapan nekuchengetedzwa kwesimba kunokonzerwa nendaka (kuwedzera kukosha kweyen), iyo inomisa mhedzisiro yekuwedzera kwemutengo wemafuta muhupfumi hwenyika.
Ongororo iyi inopedzisa neyambiro yekuti Japan ine njodzi yekusiiwa kumashure mujaho repasi rose rekuchengetedza simba nekuda kwekuregeredza. Nokudaro rinopa smidgeon yerumbidzo kumabhuku emafuta epamusoro-soro senyevero dzekudiwa kwekuteerera zvakanyanya kunyaya dzemafuta.
Ikozvino kutsoropodza kweiyo Nikkei ongororo yakanangana nebasa revatori venhau kupa ruzivo uye rwakadzikama kuvharwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha semafuta epamusoro. Asi chekutanga regai ndicherechedze kuti iyo Nikkei haisiriyo yega media media inoshaikwa mune izvi, uye Japan haisi kunyanya kushandiswa zvisina kunaka nevezvenhau. Yeuka kuti Bush Administration nevabatsiri vayo muU. Zvakawanda zvegakava reruzhinji rweUS zvave zvave kuvharika zvisingaite kubva muchokwadi chakaratidzwa nesainzi zvekuti, munaGunyana 40, munyori wengano, Michael Crichton, munyori webhuku rine mukurumbira wakaipa Rising Sun uye vamwe techno-thrillers, vakadaidzwa kuzopupura mumakamuri ekutanga Senate inopesana nedzidziso yekudziya kwepasirese.
Izvo zvakati, munhu anogona kuona zviri nyore zvikanganiso zvechiJapan media mune iyo Nikkei ongororo zano rekuti kushaikwa kwekunetseka muJapan kune chekuita neiyo yen yakakwirira. Muchokwadi, iyo dhora-yen mwero hauna kuchinjika zvakanyanya mumakore achangopfuura, uye zvirokwazvo kwete pamusoro pegore rapfuura apo mafuta akapetwa kaviri. Sekumwe kwese kwese, vagadziri veJapan vanga vachiruma bullet pamitengo yemafuta nemafuta-yakavakirwa pachigadzirwa pane kuzvipfuudza kune vatengi. Izvo zvinoganhurira kudzvanywa kwemitengo yepamba. Nekuti oiri yeJapan, yakafanana neiyo munyika zhinji, inotererwa mutero wakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura muUS, mitengo papombi yakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma kupfuura muUS. Asi sekunge kumwe kwese kwese, kukwidzwa kwemitengo yemafuta uye kuziva kuti mitengo haizodzike kwenguva yakareba, kana zvikaitika, zvinonzwika munzira dzakawanda. Imwe nzira kana vamwe vagadziri vari kupfuudza mitengo sezvavanoona kuti kukwira kwemafuta hakuzodzike mune ramangwana rinoonekwa.
Kusvika pakuti kunetseka kweJapan nezve kupihwa kwemafuta kunosara kumashure kwekunetsekana kune imwe nzvimbo, pamwe izvi zvine chekuita nevakuru vaifungidzira kuti mafuta akatsiga akavimbiswa kuburikidza nezvibvumirano zvidiki (seizvo zvine Iran) uye mubairo mukuru weIraq, uyo unozivikanwa. kuva nenzvimbo yechipiri pakukura kwemafuta pasi rose. Chokwadi yakawedzera mukana kune iyi bounty ndicho chimwe chikonzero mauto eJapan akatumirwa kuguta reIraqi reSamawa. Kuvepo kwavo muSamawa kwakadzikisirwa musarudzo dzichangobva kuitika uye nenhepfenyuro. Hapana vezvenhau vakanyanya kunetsa kutumira mutori wenhau kuti anobvunzurudza mauto, kunyangwe vadziviriri vemauto eAustralia uye kusakwanisa kubuda mumusasa kunofanira kusimbisa fungidziro yekuti sei vari ikoko zvachose. Uye NHK's zhizha chinyorwa pamauto muIraq yakaganhurira kubvunzurudza kwayo kune ndarira. Pfungwa yekuti oiri haina kana chekuita nazvo inoyeuchidza nezvekutaura kweMunyori weDziviriro weUS, Rumsfeld, kuti hondo pachayo "hainei nechokuita nemafuta, haina chekuita nemafuta." Zvakadaro zvisinei nekunyarara kumberi kwemauto eJapan mugwenga, vashoma vanoona muJapan vanogona kutadza kuona kuti tarisiro yekuwana mavhoriyamu emafuta eIraqi pamusika iri kudzikira nezuva. Makore maviri nehafu mushure mekupinda nechisimba kweUS, kuburitswa kwemafuta eIraq kunoramba kuri pazasi pemazinga epamusoro. Uye sezvo mhirizhonga kubva kuIraq inotyisidzira kupararira, kunyange Saudi nezvimwe zveMiddle East zvinofanirwa kuratidzika kunge zvinozungunusa. Nokudaro kuwedzera kunetseka pamusoro pemafuta kunogona kunge kwakakonzerwa nechikamu chekumuka kune fiscal illusion yendaka, asi zvingave zvakare kuti veJapan vepamusoro vasvika pakuziva kuti kuvimba nehutongi hweBush iko zvino kunonyanya kukosha uye kusina simba kwesimba. security.
Muchidimbu, ongororo inoshaya maonero akatambanuka pamusoro penyaya dzaanofukidza. Dambudziko iri rinoenda kumabhuku akaongororwa zvakare, ose akanyorwa nevatori venhau kwete nyanzvi. Uyezve, nepo mabhuku achisanganisira zvikamu zvemafuta epamusoro, akazvipira kune dzakasiyana siyana nyaya dzine chekuita neoiri. Zvinhu izvi zvakamisa mabhero ekunyevera nezve ongororo yacho kuve mutambo usina kunaka. Mumwe anozeza kutaura kuti ongororo iyi yanga isina kurongeka, sezvo vaNikkei vangangove vakasarudza mabhuku avakaita nekuti ishanduro dzichangobva kuitika uye dziri kuwanikwa nyore. Kunyange zvakadaro, kutsoropodza kwakapinza uye kwoungwaru zvikurusa kwedzidziso ipi neipi ndeyokutora mabasa ayo anonyengetedza zvikuru ndokuratidza paasina kururama. Pasina kuzvidza zvakakosha zvaRoberts naMcQuaig, ongororo idzi dzakaitwa nevatapi venhau dzemusika mukuru dziri kure neakaunzi akanakisa kana ane chiremera edzidziso yakaoma uye yakakosha semafuta epamusoro.
Saka ngatimbofungidzira kuti Nikkei yakatarisa kure zvishoma kune ruzivo rwenyanzvi pamusoro pemafuta epamusoro, kana kungowedzera hurukuro yayo yezviviri zvayaive nazvo. Kunyangwe zviwanikwa zvebepanhau guru zvichisvika pakuwana Petroleum Ongororo, Petroleum Economist, magazini yeWorldOil uye mamwe mabhuku ehunyanzvi panopokana mafuta epamusoro-soro, ngatiite zviri nyore uye tizviganhurire painternet chete. Ko Nikkei angadai akawana chii pamambure kuburikidza nekutarisa kwekuda?
Zvirokwazvo iyo Nikkei yaizocherechedza rimwe remabhuku epamusoro pemafuta epamusoro, iro Chikumi 2005 basa "Twilight muDesert," sezvo richitowana zviuru zana zvinorova pagoogle. Ongororo yakadzama iyi yakaitwa naMatthew Simmons, mukuru webhanga guru rekudyara mafuta reSimmons International. Bhuku rake rinopfuura mazana mana remapeji rakanangana nemamiriro enzvimbo dzemafuta eSaudi, inodaidzira kusahadzika kugona kwavo kuenderera mberi vachiita senge linchpin yekupihwa kwepasirese. Zvinhu zvakakosha zvekupokana kwake zviri mukutaura kwake kwakawanda, kunogona kutorwa kubva kufemu yake Website. Simmons anotenda kuti isu tave pakakwirira kare kana kuti munguva pfupi tichave.
Bhuku rake rakashoropodzwa zvakanyanya, kunyanya nehurumende yeSaudi, vachigamuchira rumbidzo inopenya kubva kune petroleum geologists nevamwe vanoona. Mumwe wevatsoropodzi vaSimmons ndiSadad al Husseini, mukuru achangobva pamudyandigere wekuongorora uye kugadzira kweSaudi Aramco. Asi kunyange iye zvino inotaura kuti, mushure mekutarisa iyo data, zvinoita sekunge kugadzirwa kwemafuta epasi rose kungangokwira mu2015.
Mumwe muenzaniso webasa rinonyengetedza uye rinowanika nyore nyanzvi ishumo rine musoro unoti โKupeta Kwekugadzirwa Kwemafuta Enyika: Mamiriro, Mitigation, uye Risk Management,โ yakatumirwa kuUS Department of Defense muna Kukadzi wegore rino. Chirevo, chinowanzonzi the Nhoroondo ye Hirsch, raitungamirirwa naRobert Hirsch weScience Applications International Corporation. Chero ani zvake anogona kudhaunirodha mushumo. Mushumo waHirsch unonyevera kuti nhamba yepamusoro inogona kuitika mukati memakore makumi maviri uye ichakonzera kuoma kukuru. Saka rinopa zano rechimbichimbi pakuderedza, sezvo kuwana zvinotsiva mafuta emvura zvakakwana munzvimbo kunoda โmakore gumi ekuedza kukuru, kunodhura.โ Ndizvo chaizvo kusavapo kwekutsvaga kwakabatana mune mamwe masimba kuri kushamisa, sezvo Pollyanna kufunga kunotonga kwete muUS chete nepasirese.
Uye cherechedza nharo dzaJ. Robinson West, Sachigaro wePFC Energy, iyo inonyanya kuzivikanwa pasi rose mazano ezano femu pamusoro pesimba. West vakapupura kuSeneti yeUnited States musi waSeptember 25, 2005. Yake uchapupu inowanikwa pawebhu. West inoongorora nhoroondo dzetarisiro dzekusingaperi kugadzirwa kweoiri (kazhinji fungidziro yenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi), asi inoti peak inogona kuitika mumakore gumi kana kupfuura. Kana iri tekinoroji nyowani yekugadzira iyo Nikkei inoisa kutenda kwayo mairi, West inotaura kuti "kana tekinoroji yekubudirira isiri mupombi izvozvi haizove nemhedzisiro kwemakore." Sekutaura kwaanoitawo muuchapupu hwake, mavhoriyamu emafuta akawanikwa akatanga kudzikira pakati pema1980, โkunyangwe kuedza kweindasitiri kwakaenderera mberi nechisimba kwavaitenderwa. Isu tave kushandisa zvakapetwa katatu zvakapetwa katatu mafuta asina kujairika sezvatiri kuwana kuburikidza nekuongorora. Kunyangwe kuverenga mafuta asina kujairika, gasi rechisikigo zvinwiwa uye kudzoreredzwa kweoiri, chiyero chekugadzirwa kune mitsva inochengeterwa ichiri chikuru kupfuura maviri-kumwe. โ (Titsveyamisa mabhii) Anosimbisa dambudziko iri uye chokwadi chekuti vanhu vekuAmerica โvakadya peturu yakachipaโ ukuwo hupfumi hweAsia hwakakura semidzi miviri yezvino kudzvanya zvinhu. West inopokana kuti tapinda mu "Zera reKusachengeteka Kwesimba," uye kwete kutarisana nemafuta epamusoro chete asi nemhedzisiro yekukwira kwemitengo, kusagadzikana kwehupfumi uye pamwe kunyange "hondo dzesimba." Uye kana munhu achiona Hondo yeIraq senge kusvika pamwero wakati "hondo yesimba," saka zviri pachena kuti mitengo yevanhu neyehupfumi yakanyanya kutyisidzira kuve yakakura.
Zvichida chinhu chinoshamisa pane chidimbu cheNikkei ndechekuti inobata nemafuta epamusoro sekupokana kwemupendero kana yakapinda mune yakakura senyaya yekupokana. Bepanhau rinogona kunge rakaona kuti mafuta epamusoro ave sei kuburikidza nekutarisa mafuta makuru Chevron's "manhole ad.โ Shambadziro inodzika kupokana kwemafuta epamusoro-soro munzvimbo inonzwisisika yeminiti imwe inobvisa zvinopokana neanopokana nemafuta ekuti dzidziso inoreva kuti mafuta anopera kamwe kamwe. Chokwadika, kuva mukuru uye kunzwisiswa zviri nyore hakusi mwero wokuvimbika. Asi chokwadi chekuti imwe yemafuta makuru ndeye yambiro nezve peak mafuta inoratidza kuti dzidziso pachayo inofanirwa kurapwa kwakaringana uye kurambwa kwakanyanya kupfuura kwayakawana kubva kuNikkei. Oiri yepamusoro zviri pachena inopfuura "chiitiko chemagariro."
Chokwadi, kwete chete isu hatina tekinoroji yebudiriro yakamirira padivi rekugadzira, isu hatina pa petroleum supply futi. Iko hakuna imwe nzira yemagetsi tekinoroji mupombi inogona kukwikwidza oiri pamutengo wayo, shanduko, simba remagetsi uye zvimwe zvinoyevedza. Kutsvakurudza kwakakomba mumanyuko chaiwoiwo esimba kusati kwatombotanga; uye kunyangwe yaita, uyezve yozowana mari inorema yainoda, zvingangove makore isati yawanikwa imwe nzira inogoneka. Ipapo iyo lag inozoteverwa nekumwe kunonoka kwemakore akati wandei mukuisa iyo tekinoroji nyowani. Ndosaka kunyangwe idzi ongororo dzakanyanya dzichigumisa kuti nguva yekuita ikozvino. Mumwe anoshamisika kana iyo Nikkei ichinyatso tsvaga mhosva kune iyo yakakosha chirevo chepamusoro pemafuta nyanzvi.
Andrew DeWit iMubatanidzwa Purofesa weEconomics paRikkyo University muTokyo uye murongi weJapan Focus. Akanyora izvi kuJapan Focus, achigadzira ongororo yekutanga yakaonekwa muShukan Kinyobi. Munyori anogona kubatika pa dewit@rikkyo.
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