Pane imwe nguva muAmerica, tese taigona kukakavara pamusoro pekuti simba repasi rose reUS riri kudzikira here kana kuti kwete. Iye zvino, vacherechedzi vakawanda havana chokwadi chokuti mugumo inongova nyaya yenguva uye mamiriro ezvinhu. Makore gumi apfuura, I akafanotaura kuti, muna 2025, zvinenge zvapera nokuda kwesimba reAmerica, mashoko ane gakava akajairika nhasi. Pasi peMutungamiri Donald Trump, ivo yaimbova "nyika inokosha" iyo yakakunda Hondo yeNyika II uye yakavaka nhevedzano yenyika itsva yava inongorashwa zvamazvirokwazvo.
Kuderera nekudonha kwesimba repasi rose reAmerica, hongu, hapana chakakosha mukutsvaira kukuru kwenhoroondo. Mushure mezvose, mumakore e4,000 kubvira humambo hwekutanga hwevanhu hwakaumbwa muFertile Crescent, zvirinani. 200 empires amuka, akabonderana nemamwe masimba oumambo, uye nokufamba kwenguva akaparara. Muzana ramakore rapfuura chete, gumi nembiri nyika dzemazuva ano dzehumambo dzakawa uye nyika yakakwanisa kuita zvakanaka mushure mekufa kwavo.
Kurongeka kwepasirese hakuna kumbobwaira bwaira pakapinda humambo hweSoviet hwakakura muna 1991, huchisunungura โmarepublicโ 15 nemaโsatelliteโ manomwe kuita nyika 22 dzichangoburwa. Washington yakatora iyo epochal chiitiko zvakanyanya munhanho. Pakanga pasina kuratidzira kwekukunda, mutsika yeRoma yekare, nenhapwa dzeRussia dzakapambwa uye hupfumi hwavo hwakapambwa zvakaratidzwa muPennsylvania Avenue. Pane kudaro, Manhattan real-estate developer akatenga 20-foot chunk yeBerlin Wall kuti ionekwe pedyo neMadison Avenue, chiono chisingaonekwi nevatengi vakabatikana.
Kune avo vanoedza kuronda mafambiro epasi rose kwemakore gumi kana maviri anotevera, mubvunzo chaiwo hausi iwo magumo eAmerican global hegemony, asi ramangwana rehurongwa hwepasi rose hwakatanga kuvaka pakakwirira kwesimba rayo, kwete muna 1991, asi mushure menguva pfupi. Hondo Yenyika II. Kwemakore makumi manomwe nemashanu apfuura, hutongi hwepasi rose hweWashington hwakatsamira paโdelicate hunyambiri.โ Iyo yakasvibira realpolitik yemauto eUS, makambani emarudzi akawanda, CIA coups, uye kupindira kwemauto ekunze zvakadzikamiswa, kana kupfaviswa, nehurongwa hunoshamisa hwepasirese - nenyika dzakazvimiririra dzichisangana zvakaenzana kuUnited Nations, mutemo wepasi rose wemutemo wakachinja. kurwisana kwepfuti, World Health Organisation iyo yakanyatso bvisa hosha dzakange dzatambudza vanhu kwezvizvarwa, uye kuedza kwebudiriro kunotungamirwa neWorld Bank. iyo yakasimudzwa 40% yevanhu kubva muhurombo.
Vamwe vacherechedzi vanoramba vaine chivimbo chakanyanya chekuti hurongwa hwepasirese hweWashington hunogona kupona nekukukurwa kusingachinji kwesimba rayo repasi rose. Nyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika yePrinceton G. John Ikenberry, semuenzaniso, akaisa mukurumbira wake pane izvo zvinopokana. Sezvo kuderera kweUS kwakatanga kuoneka muna 2011, iye vakakavadzana kuti kugona kweWashington kuumba zvematongerwo enyika kwaizodzikira, asi โkurongeka kwenyika dzepasi rose kuchararama uye kubudirira,โ kuchengetedza zvinhu zvayo zvakakosha zvekutonga kwemarudzi akawanda, kutengeserana kwakasununguka, uye kodzero dzevanhu. Makore manomwe gare gare, pakati pekukwira kwevanopesana nepasirese nyika munzvimbo dzakakosha dzepasi, anoramba aripo optimistic kuti hurongwa hwepasi rose hwakagadzirwa neAmerica hucharamba huripo nekuti nyaya dzepasi rose dzakaita sekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze dzinoita "chiono cheprotein chekudyidzana nekushandira pamwe ... kukosha zvakanyanya sezvo zana rinoitika."
Iyi pfungwa yetarisiro yakachengetedzwa inogovaniswa zvakanyanya pakati pevamiriri vezvekune dzimwe nyika muNew York-Washington corridor yemasimba. Mutungamiriri wekanzuru ine simba pamusoro pehukama hwekunze, Richard Haass, akadaro vakakavadzana kuti "post-Cold War order haigone kudzoserwa, asi nyika haisati yave pamucheto wedambudziko rehurongwa." Kuburikidza nedeft diplomacy, Washington inogona kuramba ichichengetedza pasi kubva ku "zvakanyanya kusagadzikana" kana kunyange "maitiro anoreva njodzi."
Asi ichokwadi here kuti kuderera kweโsimba guru guruโ repasi (sezvaichimbova kuzivikanwa) hakusati kuchizozunungusazve nhevedzano yenyika yazvino sezvakamboita kuparara kweSoviet? Kuti uongorore izvo zvinotora kuburitsa kurongeka kwakadaro kwehurongwa hwepasirese, zvakafanira kutendeukira kunhoroondo - kunhoroondo, kutaura zvazviri, yekupunzika kwemirairo yehumambo uye kushanduka kwepasi.
Sezvinobvumwa, mienzanisiro yakadaro nguva dzose haina kukwana, bva ndeipi imwe nhungamiro yenguva yemberi yatinayo kunze kwomunguva yakapfuura? Pakati pezvidzidzo zvayo zvakawanda: kuti mitemo yenyika inokosha zvikuru kupfuura zvatingafungidzira uye kuti kudzurwa kwayo kunoda dutu rakakwana remasimba ane simba zvikurusa enhau. Chokwadi, mubvunzo wenguva ino unofanirwa kuve: Iko shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iko zvino kuunganidza simba rinoparadza rakakwana rekukanganisa kurongeka kwenyika yeWashington uye kugadzira kuvhurika kune yakasarudzika yeBeijing kana kunyange nyika nyowani umo maodha akadai achange asingazivikanwe?
Empires uye World Orders
Zvisinei neaura yesimba rinotyisa ravanopa, humambo hwagara huri zvisikwa zvemukundi seAlexander Mukuru kana Napoleon zvinopera nekukurumidza mushure mekufa kwake kana kukundwa. Kurongeka kwenyika, nekusiyana, kwakadzika midzi zvakanyanya. Iwo masisitimu epasirese akasimba akagadzirwa nekusangana kwehupfumi, tekinoroji, uye mafungiro masimba. Nechepamusoro, vanobatanidza chibvumirano pakati pemarudzi, nepo pamwero wakadzama vachizvibatanidza vamene mukati metsika, kutengeserana, uye tsika dzenzanga dzisingaverengeki. Mitemo yenyika inopesvedzera mitauro inotaurwa nevanhu, mitemo yavanorarama nayo, uye nzira dzavanoshanda nayo, vanamati, uye kunyange kutamba. Mirayiro yenyika inorukwa mukugadzirwa kwebudiriro pachayo. Kuzvidzura kunotora chiitiko chinoshamisa kana seti yezviitiko, kunyangwe njodzi yepasi rose.
Tichitarira shure pamusoro pemireniyumu yokupedzisira, mirairo yekare inofa uye mitsva inomuka apo ngwavaira, inoratidzirwa norufu rukuru kana kuti ruparadziko rukuru, inotsinhirana nokumwe kuchinja kunononoka asi kuri kukurusa kwenzanga. Kubva panguva yekuongorora kweEurope yakatanga muzana remakore rechigumi neshanu, vamwe 90 empires, vakuru navaduku, vakauya vakapfuura. Mumazana amakore mamwe chetewo, zvisinei, kwave kune mirairo mikuru mitatu bedzi yenyikaโnguva yeIberia (1494-1805), nhambo youmambo hweBritain (1815-1914), uye gadziriro yenyika yeWashington (1945-2025).
Mirayiro yepasi rose yakadaro haisi kungofungidzira kwevanyori vezvakaitika kare vakaedza, makumi emakore akawanda kana mazana emakore gare gare, kuisa pfungwa pamusoro pezvakaitika kare. Iwo masimba matatu - Spain, Britain, neUnited States - nehana vakaedza kurongazve nyika yavo, vaitarisira, zvizvarwa zvichauya kuburikidza nezvibvumirano zviri pamutemo - Chibvumirano cheTordesillas muna 1494, Congress yeVienna muna 1815, uye San. Francisco musangano wakanyora gwaro reUN muna 1945. Kana Beijing ikakunda Washington sesimba guru repasirese, vanyori venhoroondo venguva yemberi vangangotarisa kumashure paBelt and Road Forum, iyo yakaunza nyika zana nemakumi matatu kuBeijing muna 130, sekutanga zviri pamutemo nguva yeChina. .
Chimwe nechimwe chezvibvumirano izvi chakaumba nyika nenzira dzakanyanya kukosha, kutaura mitemo yepasi rose iyo yaizotsanangura maitiro emarudzi uye kodzero dzevanhu vose vari mukati mavo kwemakumi emakore anotevera. Mukati meiyi nhambo yemakore 500, iyi mirairo yenyika mitatu yakaita zvaigona kuonekwa, mumashure, segakava rinopfuurira pamusoro pechimiro chekodzero dzevanhu uye miganhu youchangamire hwenyika pamusoro penzvimbo huru dzepasi.
Mukupararira kwavo munyika dzakasiyana, mirairo yenyika inova mubatanidzwa wevanokakavara, kunyange kupokana, masimba emagariro - vanhu vakasiyana, nyika dzinokwikwidzana, mapoka anokwikwidza. Kana yadzikamiswa zvine hungwaru, hurongwa hwakadaro hunogona kurarama kwemakumi emakore, kunyangwe mazana emakore, nekudzora iwo masimba anopokana mukati mezvido zvakagovaniswa. Sezvo kusawirirana kunowedzera mukupokana, zvakadaro, njodzi nenzira yehondo kana njodzi dzinongoitika dzoga dzinogona kukonzera kukakavara kuri kuitika - kubvumira matambudziko kubva kumasimba anokwikwidza, kumukirana neanotonga magariro, kana zvese zviri zviviri.
Nguva yeIberian
Mukati memakore chiuru apfuura, yekutanga yeaya anosandura njodzi yaive yeBlack Death ye1350, imwe yemafungu makuru enhoroondo yekufa kwevanhu vakawanda kuburikidza nechirwere, iyi yakaparadzirwa nemakonzo akatakura inda dzine hutachiona kubva kuCentral Asia kuEurope. Mumakore matanhatu chete, izvi pandemic Yakauraya kusvika 60% yehuwandu hweEurope, ichisiya vamwe mamirioni makumi mashanu vafa. Sezvo denda diki asi richiri kuuraya rakadzoka kanenge kasere mukati mehafu yezana rinotevera, huwandu hwevanhu venyika yakaderera zvikuru kubva pavanofungidzirwa kuva mamiriyoni 440 kusvika kumamiriyoni 350 chete, tsaona yayaisazonaya zvizere kwemamwe mazana maviri emakore.
Vanyori venhoroondo vakabvira kare vachikakavadzana kuti denda rakakonzera kushomeka kwevashandi kusingaperi, kuderedza mihoro pazvivakwa zvemafeudal estates nekudaro kumanikidza vapfumi kutsvaga imwe mari kuburikidza nehondo. Mugumisiro: zana remakore rekurwisana kusingagumi muFrance, Italy, neSpain. Asi vanyori venhoroondo vashoma vakaongorora kupararira kwezvematongerwo enyika kwenjodzi iyi yehuwandu hwevanhu. Mushure meanoda kusvika mireniyumu, zvinoita sekunge yakagumisa Middle Ages nehurongwa hwayo hwematunhu enzvimbo uye humambo hwakagadzikana hwematunhu, uku ichisunungura mauto emutengesi, kutengeserana kwemugungwa, uye tekinoroji yemauto kuti, sezvazviri, kutanga nyika. .
Sezvo vatasvi vemabhiza vaTamerlane vakatsvaira Central Asia uye maOttoman Turks akatora kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweEurope (apo achitorawo Constantinople, guta guru rehumambo hweByzantine, muna 1453), humambo hweIberia hwakatendeukira kugungwa kwezana ramakore rekuongorora. Havana kungotambanudzira bedzi simba ravo roumambo raikura kumakondinendi mana (Africa, Asia, uye dzose dziri mbiri nyika dzeAmerica), asi vakasikawo nhevedzano yokutanga yepasi pose yakafanira zita racho, kutengeserana kunouya, kukunda, uye kutendeuka kworudzidziso pamwero wenyika yose.
Kutanga muna 1420, nekuda kwekufambira mberi mukufamba uye hondo yegungwa, kusanganisira kusikwa kweiyo agile. caravel ngarava, vafambisi vengarava vechiPutukezi vakasunda kumaodzanyemba, vakatenderedza Africa, uye pakupedzisira vakavaka zviteshi zvengarava 50 zvakavakirirwa kubva kuSoutheast Asia kusvika kuBrazil. Izvi zvaizovabvumira kutonga kwakawanda kwekutengeserana kwenyika kweanopfuura zana. Imwe nguva gare gare, Spanish vakundi akatevera Columbus mhiri kweAtlantic kuti akunde humambo hweAztec neIncan, huchitora nzvimbo dzakakosha dzeAmerica.
Vhiki shomanana Columbus apedza rwendo rwake rwokutanga muna 1493, Pope Alexander VI akapa chirevo kupa korona yeSpain uchangamire husingagumi panyika dzose dziri kumadokero kwemuganhu wepakati peAtlantic kuitira kuti โnyika dzine utsinye dzikundwe ndokuunzwa kukutenda [kweKaturike].โ Akasimbisa zvekare Papa nzombe (Romanus Pontifex, 1455) izvo zvakapa mambo wePortugal maruramiro okuโkurira vaSaracen vose navahedheniโ kumabvazuva kwomutsara iwoyo, โkuderedza vanhu vavo kuuranda husingagumi,โ uye โkutora izvi zvitsuwa, nyika, zviteshi., nemakungwa.โ
Kuti vagadzirise paive chaipo, vamiriri veSpain nePortugal vakasangana kwemwedzi yakati muna 1494 muguta diki reTordesillas. kukurukurirana, ichibudisa chibvumirano chaiparadzanisa nyika isiri yechiKristu pakati pavo uye yakatanga zviri pamutemo zera reIberia. Mukutsanangurwa kwacho kwakakura kwehutongi hwenyika, chibvumirano ichi chakabvumira nyika dzeEurope kuwana "nyika dzine utsinye" nekukunda uye kuita makungwa akazara kuva nyika. mare clausum, kana kuti gungwa rakavharwa, kuburikidza nokuongorora. Iyi dhipatimendi yaizoisawo kusarurana kwakasimba kwechitendero-cum-madzinza pavanhu kunozoenderera kwemamwe mazana mashanu emakore.
Kunyange sezvavakaramba kubvutwa kwevhu kweIberia kwepasi rose, dzimwe nyika dzeEurope dzakabatsira pakuumbwa kwenhevedzano yenyika iyoyo yakasiyana. Mambo Francis I weFrance kazhinji akadaro "kuona chirevo chekuda kwaAdhamu chandinofanira kunyimwa chikamu changu chenyika." Zvakadaro, akabvuma musimboti wekukunda kweEurope uye akazotumira mutyairi wengarava Giovanni da Verrazzano kuti aongorore North America uye atore iyo yakazova Canada kuFrance.
Zana ramakore pashure, apo vafambisi vengarava vechiDutch vechiPurotesitendi vakazvidza Portugal yeKaturike mare clausum nokutora imwe yengarava dzayo dzevatengesi kubva kuSingapore, mutongi wavo wemitemo Hugo Grotius vakakavadzana nekunyengetedza, muchinyorwa chake cha1609 Mare Liberum (โRusununguko rweMakungwaโ), kuti gungwa rakafanana nemhepo โharina muganhu zvokuti harigoni kuva romunhu upi noupi.โ Kwemakore mazana mana anotevera, mapatya emitemo yemakungwa akazaruka uye makoroni akakundwa aizoramba ari hwaro hwehurongwa hwepasi rose.
Ichitsigirwa nemhindu dzekutengesa uye yakurudzirwa neshingairo yemamishinari, iyi nhevedzano yepasi rose yakaratidza kusimba zvinoshamisa, ichirarama kwemazana matatu akazara emakore. Nekutanga kwezana ramakore regumi nemasere, zvakadaro, nyika dzeEurope dzeabsolutist dzakapinda mumhirizhonga dzinoparadza dzepakati, kunyanya Hondo yeSpanish Succession (1701-1714) uye Hondo Yemakore Manomwe yepasi rose (1756-1763). Uyezve, makambani ehumambo akachata - maBritish, Dutch, neFrench - ayo panguva iyoyo aitonga humambo ihwohwo aive achiratidza kusakwanisa kutonga hutongi hwehutongi hunobudirira uye achiwedzera kusakwanisa kugadzira purofiti.
Mushure memazana maviri emakore ekutonga, Kambani yeFrench East India yakamiswa muna 1794 uye yairemekedzwa yeDutch yakadonha makore mashanu chete gare gare. Kurova kwekupedzisira kunouraya kuhurumende dzeabsolutist kwakaunzwa neAmerican, French, neHaitian revolutions yakatanga pakati pe1776 ne1804.
IBritish Imperial Era
Zera rehumambo hweBritain rakabuda muHondo dzeNapoleonic dzakaburitsa simba rekushandura rehunyanzvi hweEngland mumaindasitiri uye nemari yepasi rose. Kwemakore 12, 1803 kusvika 1815, hondo idzodzo dzakaratidza kuva mhirizhonga yeBlack Death iyo yakapararira muEurope, ichisiya mamiriyoni matanhatu. akafa mukumuka kwavo uye kusvika kuIndia, Southeast Asia, uye nyika dzeAmerica.
Nenguva iyo Emperor Napoleon akanyangarika mukutapwa, France, yakatorerwa mazhinji emakoloni ayo mhiri kwemakungwa, yakanga yaderedzwa kusvika padanho rechipiri muEurope, nepo yaimbova shamwari yayo, Spain, yakanga isina simba zvekuti yaizokurumidza kurasikirwa nehumambo hwayo hweLatin America. Ichikurudzirwa nemhirizhonga uye yenhoroondo shanduko yehupfumi, Britain yakaerekana yatarisana isina kukwikwidza yakakomba yeEurope uye yakazviwana yakasununguka kugadzira nekutarisa hurongwa hwepasirese hwaive hwakaganhurwa umo uchangamire hwakaramba huri hwechokwadi uye hwechokwadi chete muEurope nemativi eAmerica, nepo zvimwe zvakawanda. yepasi yaive pasi pehutongi hwehumambo.
Sezvinobvumwa, kuparadzwa kwakakonzerwa nehondo dzeNapoleonic kungaita sekune mwero kana kuchienzaniswa nekuparadzwa kweBlack Death, asi shanduko yenguva refu yakakonzerwa nekuchinja kwemaindasitiri kweBritain uye capitalism yemari yakabuda muhondo idzodzo yakaratidza kumanikidza kupfuura nguva yekutanga. makambani evatengesi uye mabasa emamishinari. Kubva 1815 kusvika 1914, London yakatungamira hurongwa hwepasirese huri kuwedzera hunoratidzwa neindasitiri, mari inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye kukunda kwevakoloni, zvese zvakakurudzirwa nekubatanidzwa kwepasi kuburikidza nechitima, chitima, telegraph, uye pakupedzisira redhiyo. Mukupesana nemakambani ehumambo asina kusimba ezera rekutanga, iyi vhezheni yeimperialism yakabatanidza makambani emazuva ano nekutonga kwakananga kwekoloni nenzira yaibvumira kushandiswa kunobudirira kwezviwanikwa zvenzvimbo. Saka hazvishamisi kuti dzimwe nyanzvi vafona Zana remakore reBritain rokutonga โnguva yokutanga yekudyidzana kwenyika dzepasi pose.
Nepo indasitiri yeBritain nezvemari zvaive zvemazuva ano, zera rayo rehumambo rakawedzera misimboti yakakosha yepasirese mumazana emakore apfuura, kunyangwe muchimiro chisina kunaka chenyika. Kunyange zvazvo dzidziso yeDutch ye "rusununguko rwemakungwa" yakabvumira mauto eBritish kuti atonge mafungu, kururamisa kwechitendero kwekare kwekutonga kwakatsiviwa nemafungiro emarudzi ayo akabvumira kuedza kweEurope kukunda uye kutora hafu yevanhu iyo mudetembi we imperialist Rudyard Kipling. zita iyo "maduku maduku."
Kunyange zvazvo 1815 Congress yeVienna yakatanga zviri pamutemo nguva yeBritish nekubvisa France semukwikwidzi, 1885 Berlin Conference on Africa yakanyatsotsanangura zera. Zvakawanda sezvakaitwa nemaPutukezi neSpanish kuTordesillas muna 1494, masimba gumi nemana (kusanganisira United States) aivepo muBerlin mazana mana emakore gare gare akaruramisa kuveza kondinendi yese yeAfrica ne. achidanidzira kuzvipira kwokuzvidira โkutarisira kuchengetedzwa kwendudzi dzakaberekerwamo uye kutarisira kunatsiridzwa kwemigariro yetsika dzavo negarikano yokunyama.โ Sezvo kudanwa ikoko kwevaAfrica seโmarudzi echizvarirwoโ panzvimbo peโmarudziโ kana kuti โvanhuโ kwakavarambira zvose zviri zviviri uchangamire nekodzero dzavanhu, naizvozvo zana ramakore reBritain rakapupurira umambo husere huchiisa inenge hafu yohunhu pasi poutongi hwoudzori hwakavakirwa pakudzikira kwedzinza.
Kwangopera zana rimwe chete kubva pakuvambwa kwayo, zvisinei, kupesana kwakavanda mukati mekutonga kweGreat Britain pasi rose kwakatanga, nekuda kwenzira iyo hondo mbiri dzepasi rose dzinotyisa dzakapindirana nekusimuka kwenguva refu kwehurudzi hunopesana nekoloni kugadzira kurongeka kwenyika yedu iripo. Gadziriro yemubatanidzwa pakati peumambo hunorwisana yakabvumikisa kuva isingachinji, ichiputika murwisano dzoumhondi muna 1914 uye zvakare muna 1939. Zvakatoipa zvikuru, kusimukira kwakatoparira ngarava yehondo nendege seinjini dzehondo dzorudzi rwakanga rusina muenzaniso nesimba rinoparadza, nepo sayenzi yazvino uno yaizogadzirawo zvombo zvenyukireya. nesimba rekugona kuparadza pasi pacharo. Zvichakadaro, nyika dzaitonga dzinenge hafu yepasi rose dzakaramba kubvuma kurambwa kwakaitwa rusununguko, vanhu, uye kuzvitonga izvo Europe yaizvikoshesa pachayo.
Nepo mazhinji emamiriyoni gumi nemashanu ekurwa kufa muHondo Yenyika I yakabuda kubva mukuparadza kwehondo dzemugero kumadokero kweFrance (yakasanganiswa ne Mamirioni zana vakafa pasi rose kubva mudenda refuruwenza), Hondo Yenyika II yakaparadzira kuparara kwayo pasi rose, wokuurayira vanhu vanopfuura mamirioni makumi matanhatu uye maguta anoparadza muEurope neAsia. Sezvo Europe ichinetseka kuti igadzirise, umambo hwayo hwakanga husingachagoni kumanikidzira kuchema kwevakoloni nokuda kworusununguko. Makumi maviri amakore bedzi pashure pokunge hondo yapera, umambo hutanhatu hweEurope mhiri kwamakungwa uhwo hwakanga huchidzora chikamu chikuru cheAsia neAfrica kwamazana mashanu amakore hwakapa nzvimbo kumarudzi 60 matsva.
Washington's World Order
Mumashure mehondo inoparadza zvakanyanya munhoroondo, United States yakashandisa simba rayo risingaenzaniswi kuumba hurongwa hwenyika hweWashington. Kufa kweAmerica muHondo Yenyika II kwakaverengera mazana mana nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemasere, asi avo nokurasikirwa yakaparara mamiriyoni 24 asati afa muRussia, vamwe mamiriyoni 20 muChina, uye mamiriyoni 19 muEurope. Nepo maindasitiri muEurope, Russia, neJapan akakuvadzwa kana kuparadzwa uye chikamu chikuru cheEurasia chakaparadzwa, United States yakazviwana yasara nehupfumi hwakasimba padanho rehondo uye hafu yehuwandu hwemaindasitiri epasi. Nenzvimbo zhinji dzeEurope neAsia dzichitambura nenzara huru, kuzvimba kwakawedzera kwekurima kweAmerica kwakadyisa vanhu vane nzara.
Hurongwa hwepasirese hweWashington hwakatanga paBretton Woods, New Hampshire, muna 1944. Ikoko, Nyika makumi mana neina Dzakabatana dzakagadzira hurongwa hwemari hwepasi rose hwakaenzanisirwa neWorld Bank uyezve, kuSan Francisco muna 44, negwaro reUN kuti riumbe nharaunda inozvitonga. marudzi. Mukurova kunoshamisa kwefambiro mberi yavanhu, iyi nhevedzano itsva yakaramba nomutoo unotyisa mitsaukano yorudzidziso neyedzinza yamazana amakore mashanu apfuura. achidanidzira muChibvumirano Chepasi Pose Chekodzero Dzevanhu cheUN โkodzero dzakaenzana uye dzisingadzivisiki dzenhengo dzose dzemhuri yevanhu,โ idzo โdzinofanira kudzivirirwa nomutemo.โ
Mukati memakore gumi mushure mekupera kweHondo Yenyika II, Washington zvakare yaive ne500 mhiri kwemakungwa mabhesi emauto airira Eurasia uye neketani yezvibvumirano zvekudzivirira kubva kuNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) kuenda kuAustralia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS). ), uye ngarava dzehondo dzine zvombo zvenyukireya uye mabhomba ane hunyanzvi. Kuti ishandise shanduro yayo yekutonga kwepasirese, Washington yakachengeta dzidziso yechiDutch yezana ramakore rechigumi nenomwe yeโrusununguko rwemakungwa,โ gare gare ichiipfuudzira kunyange muchadenga uko, kweinopfuura hafu yezana ramakore, masatelliti ayo ehondo akatenderera pasina kuzvidzora.
Sezvo hurongwa hwehumambo hweBritain hwakanga hwakapararira uye hune simba kupfuura hwakatangira hwayo hweIberia, saka hurongwa hwenyika hweWashington hwakaenda kupfuura ese ari maviri, huchive hwakarongeka hwakasimba uye hwakanyudzwa zvakadzama mumativi ese ehupenyu hwepasi. Nepo iyo 1815 Congress yeVienna yaive yakaungana ephemeral yevamiriri gumi nevaviri vane simba rakapera mukati memakore gumi, United Nations nenyika dzayo 193 nhengo, kwemakore anoda kusvika 75, vakatsigira 44,000 vashandi vechigarire kuti vatarise hutano hwepasirese, kodzero dzevanhu, dzidzo, mutemo, basa, hukama hwevarume, budiriro, chikafu, tsika, kuchengetedza runyararo, uye vapoteri. Mukuwedzera kukutonga kwakafara kwakadaro, UN inewo zvibvumirano zvinoitirwa kudzora gungwa, nzvimbo, uye mamiriro okunze.
Musangano weBretton Woods hauna kungogadzira hurongwa hwemari pasi rose, asi zvakakonzerawo kuumbwa kweWorld Trade Organisation iyo inodzora kutengeserana pakati penyika zana nemakumi maviri neina. Unogona kufungidzira, ipapoka, kuti gadziriro yakadaro inoshamisa, yakabatanidzwa murunenge rutivi rwuri rwose rwevatano yamarudzi ose, inogona kupukunyuka kunyange nyongano huru.
Cataclysm uye Kudonha
Zvakadaro kune humbowo hunowedzera hunoratidza kuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, sezvainokura, iri kugadzira hwaro hwemhando yenjodzi iyo inokwanisa kuzunungusa kunyangwe hurongwa hwenyika hwakadzika midzi. Mhedzisiro yekudziya kwepasi rose ichanyanya kuoneka, kwete mune ramangwana riri kure re2100 (sezvaimbofungwa), asi mukati memakore makumi maviri chete, zvichikanganisa hupenyu hwevazhinji vakuru vapenyu nhasi.
Gumiguru apfuura, vesainzi veIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change yeUN vakapa โmushumo wezuva redoomsday,โ yambiro yekuti vanhu vangosara nemakore gumi nemaviri kuti vabvise kabhoni nezvikamu makumi mana nezvishanu kubva muzana kana kuti tembiricha yenyika yaizokwira neinenge 12 madhigirii celsius kupfuura preindustrial. pamwero we 45. Izviwo zvaizounza mafashamo makuru emumhenderekedzo yegungwa, madutu akasimba zvikuru, kusanaya kwemvura kunotyisa, moto wesango, uye mafungu ekupisa kukanganisa izvo zvinogona kuwedzera kusvika kumadhora makumi mashanu neshanu emadhora - inopfuura hafu ye saizi yazvino zveupfumi hwenyika. Mukati memakumi mashoma emakore mushure maizvozvo, kudziya kwepasi kungave, kusipo maitiro ehugamba, kusvika ine ngozi 2 madhigirii Celsius, nekutonyanya kuparadza.
Muna Ndira, masayendisiti, achishandisa data nyowani kubva kune akaomesesa anoyangarara masensa, akataura kuti makungwa epasi kudziyisa 40% nekukurumidza kupfuura zvinofungidzirwa makore mashanu chete apfuura, achiburitsa madutu ane simba nemafashama emumahombekombe anogara achiitika. Nenguva isipi, mwero wegungwa unogona kukwira netsoka izere nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekupisa kwemvura iripo. Mishumo yakaitika panguva imwe cheteyo yakaratidza kuti kukwira kwekushisa kwemhepo pasi rose kwatoita kuti makore mashanu apfuura ave anopisa zvikuru munhoroondo yakanyorwa, kuunza madutu ane simba zvikuru uye moto wesango unopisa kuUnited States nekukuvara kunosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matatu nematanhatu emadhora muna 306. Uye mari iyi yakawandisa inofanira kutorwa semubhadharo wakaderera pane zvichauya.
Zvinoshamisa kukurumidza-kunyunguduka ice sheets muGreenland neAntarctic zvinongowedzera kukanganisa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Kukwira kunotarisirwa kukwira kwemainji masere kusvika 2050 kunogona kupeta mafashama emumhenderekedzo yegungwa munzvimbo dzinopisa dzepasi - nekukanganisa kwakaipisisa kumamirioni avanhu munzvimbo yakaderera-yakadzika Bangladesh uye. iyo mega-maguta yekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia kubva kuMumbai kuenda kuSaigon neGuangzhou. Meltwater inobva kuGreenland iri kukanganisawo โkupidigura kutendereraโ kweNorth Atlantic iyo inodzora mamiriro ekunze enzvimbo iyi uye inoda kuburitsa mamwe mamiriro ekunze anonyanyisa. Zvichakadaro, Antarctic meltwater ichaita musungo mvura inodziya pasi pepamusoro, ichimhanyisa kuparara kweWest Antarctic ice sherufu uye zvichibatsira mukukwira kwemvura yemugungwa inogona kurova 20 inches ne2100.
Muchidimbu, nguva inoramba ichikwira yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze mumakumi emakore ari kuuya ingangounza kukuvadzwa kukuru kune zvivakwa zvinotsigira hupenyu hwevanhu. Makore mazana manomwe gare gare, vanhu vanogona kutarisana neimwe njodzi pachiyero cheBlack Death, iyo inogona, zvakare, kutanga nyika.
Iko geopolitical kukanganisa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunogona kunzwika nekukurumidza mugungwa reMedithera, kumusha kune 466 miriyoni vanhu, uko tembiricha muna 2016 yanga yatove. yakazosvika 1.3 madhigirii Celsius pamusoro pe pre-industrial level. (Iyezvino avhareji yepasi rose yanga ichingori kumativi 0.85 madhigirii.) Izvi zvinoreva kuti tyisidziro yokusanaya kwemvura inoparadza ichaunzwa kunzvimbo yaimbova yakaoma yakaganhurwa nemagwenga akazara muNorth Africa neMiddle East. Mumuenzaniso unotaurira wekuti njodzi yemamiriro ekunze inogona kudzima hurongwa hwese hwepasirese, makore akapoteredza 1200 BC kumabvazuva kweMedithera kwakatambura kwenguva refu. kuoma izvo "zvakakonzera kuderera kwezvirimwa, nzara, uye nzara," zvichitsvaira budiriro yeNguva Yakapfuura yeBronze semaguta eGreek Mycenaean, humambo hwevaHeti, uye Humambo Hutsva muEgypt.
Kubva 2007 kusvika 2010, kuenderera mberi kwekudziya kwepasirese kunokonzerwa "Kusanaya kwemvura kwakaipisisa kwemakore matatu" munhoroondo yakanyorwa yeSyria - kukonzeresa kusagadzikana kunoratidzwa ne "kutadza kukuru kwekurima" kwakapinza vanhu miriyoni imwe nemazana mashanu mumaguta ezvitangwena uye, zvakatevera, nehondo inoparadza yevagari vemo iyo, kutanga muna 1.5, yakamanikidza vapoteri mamiriyoni mashanu. tiza munyika iyo. Sevanopfuura miriyoni vanotama, vachitungamirwa ne2011 vaSyria, akadirwa muEurope muna 2015, European Union (EU) yakapinda mumatambudziko ezvematongerwo enyika. Mapato anopikisa vabvakure akabva awana mukurumbira nesimba mukondinendi yese uku Britain yakavhotera yayo yega Brexit.
Kufungidzira nhoroondo yeMiddle East, yekare uye yemazuva ano, mune ramangwana riri pedyo, izvo zvinokonzeresa dambudziko redunhu zvine kukomba kwepasirese zviri pachena. Mwedzi wapfuura, US National Intelligence Council akanyeverwa kuti โngozi dzemamiriro ekunze,โ dzakadai seโmafungu ekupisa [uye] kusanaya kwemvura,โ zvakanga zvichiwedzera โkusagadzikana munzanga, kutama, uye kusawirirana pakati penyika dzakadai seEgypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, neJoridhani.โ
Kana tikaturikira mazwi mashoma iwayo mune ramangwana, imwe nguva pamberi pa2040 apo avhareji yekudziya kwepasi kungangosvika kune ngozi 1.5 madhigirii Celsius, Middle East ingangosangana nenjodzi yekukwira kwekushisa kwe2.3 degrees. Kupisa kukuru kwakadaro kuchaunza kusanaya kwemvura kwenguva refu kwakaipisisa kupfuura kwakaparadza budiriro yeBronze Age, kurima kungangoparadza uye kumutsa hondo dzemvura pakati pemarudzi anogovera nzizi dzeTigris neYufratesi, vachitumira mamwe mamirioni evapoteri vachitizira kuEurope. Pasi pekumanikidzwa kusati kwamboitika, mapato ari kure-kurudyi anogona kutora masimba mukondinendi yese uye EU inogona kuputika sezvo nyika dzese dzinosimbisa miganhu yayo. NATO, kutambura "dambudziko guruโKubva makore aTrump, anogona kungopinda, achigadzira dhizaini inozobvumira Russia kutora Ukraine neBaltic states.
Sezvo kusawirirana kunowedzera kumativi ose eAtlantic, UN inogona kuoma mitezo nekudzivirira simba guru muSecurity Council pamwe nekuwedzera kutsoropodza pamusoro pebasa reMumiririri Mukuru weVapoteri. Kukatyamadzwa neizvi nemamwe matambudziko akafanana kubva kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzinopisa-kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kubatana kwenyika dzese kwaive pamoyo pehurongwa hwepasirese hweWashington kwemakore makumi mapfumbamwe apfuura kwaizongosvava, zvichisiya nhaka isinganyanyi kuoneka pane chivharo cheRusvingo rweBerlin pakati pedhorobha. Manhattan.
Beijing's Emerging World System
Sezvo simba repasi rose reWashington richipera uye kurongeka kwayo kwenyika kuderera, Beijing iri kushanda kuti ivake hurongwa hwemutsivi nemufananidzo wayo ungave wakasiyana zvakanyanya neuzvino.
Zvakanyanya kukosha, China yakaisa pasi kodzero dzevanhu kune chiono chakakura chekuwedzera hutongi hwenyika, zvine simba. kuramba kushoropodzwa kwedzimwe nyika nezve mabatiro ayo evaTibetan neUighur vashoma, sekufuratira kwakaenzana kukanganisa kwepamba nenyika dzakaita seNorth Korea nePhilippine. Kana kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kuchikonzera kutama kwevanhu vakawanda, saka hudzvanyiriri hweChina husingadzoreki, nehutsinye hwayo kukodzero dzevapoteri, hunogona kuratidza kugamuchirika kunguva yemberi kupfuura chiroto cheWashington chekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika icho chatotanga kunyura kubva mukuona. nguva ye "rusvingo rukuru" rwaDonald Trump.
Nenzira inokatyamadza, China iri kusimukira yakashora dzidziso yakagara yakamira yemakungwa akazaruka, yave kutenderwa pasi pemusangano weUN, pachinzvimbo chekumutsidzira dzidziso. mare clausum vhezheni yesimba rehumambo nekutaura makungwa ari pedyo senzvimbo inozvitonga. Apo Permanent Court of Arbitration, dare rekutanga repasi rose, rakaramba nechibvumirano charo kuSouth China Sea muna 2016, Beijing. akasimbirira that mutongo wacho "waive usina maturo uye usina chinhu" uye waisazokanganisa "kutonga kwenzvimbo" pagungwa rose. Haisi chete Beijing nenzira iyoyo yakawedzera hutongi hwayo pamusoro pemakungwa akavhurika, asi yakaratidzawo kuzvidza kwayo mutemo wepasirese wemutemo, chinhu chakakosha muWashington world order.
Zvakawanda, Beijing iri kuvaka imwe nzira yepasirese yakaparadzana nemasangano akasimbiswa. Sekupokana kuNATO paEurasia kumadokero kwekupedzisira, China yakatangwa Shanghai Cooperation Organisation muna 2001, mubatanidzwa wechengetedzo nehupfumi wakaremerwa kumucheto wekumabvazuva kweEurasia nekuda kwekuve nhengo dzenyika dzakaita seRussia, India, nePakistan. Sekupokana neWorld Bank, Beijing akaumbwa Asian Infrastructure Development Bank muna 2016 iyo yakakurumidza kukwezva nyika dzinosvika makumi manomwe uye yakaitwa mari inosvika mabhiriyoni zana emadhora, inokwana hafu yehukuru hweWorld Bank pachayo. Kupfuura zvese, zveChina $ 1.3 tiririyoni Belt uye Road Initiative, gumi nguva kukura yeUS Marshall Plan iyo yakavakazve Europe yakaparara mushure meHondo Yenyika II, yave kuyedza kuunganidza mari inosvika madhora matriiriyoni masere mukuenzanisa mari yemapurojekiti 8 ayo anogona, mukati memakore gumi, knit 76 nyika muAfrica neEurasia, hafu izere yevanhu vese, mune yakabatanidzwa yekutengeserana hupfumi.
Kupfurikidza nokurasa mirangariro yazvino yekodzero dzavanhu nokutonga kwomutemo, kurongeka kwenyika kwakadaro kwomunguva yemberi kungangove kunodzorwa nemhombwe yezvematongerwe enyika yebudiriro yezvokutengeserana uye kuzvifarira kwenyika. Seizvo Beijing yakamutsa dzidziso ye1455 ye mare clausum, saka humiriri hwayo huchapinzwa nemweya wekuzvikudza wemusangano weBerlin wa1885 wakambopatsanura Africa. Zvinangwa zvemakomunisti zveChina zvinogona kuvimbisa kufambira mberi kwevanhu, asi mune imwe yenyaya isingagadzike munhoroondo, kurongeka kwenyika kweBeijing kunoratidzika kunge kungangoita. bhenda iyo "arc yepasirese yetsika" kumashure.
Chokwadika, papasi apo pakasvika 2100 nyika yokurima yenyika iyoyo, bani reChina kuchamhembe nevagari varo vane mamiriyoni 400, raigona. kuva munhu asingagarike nekuda kwekusagadzikana kwemafungu ekupisa uye guta rayo guru rekutengeserana remahombekombe, Shanghai, rinogona kudaro pasi pemvura (se Aizoita mamwe maguta akakosha emumhenderekedzo yegungwa), ndiani anoziva kuti hurongwa hwepasi hunotevera hungave hwakaita sei. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kana kukasaunzwa pasi pehumwe rudzi rwekutonga, kunotyisidzira kugadzira nyika itsva uye isingaperi ine njodzi pairi izwi chairo rekuti "kurongeka" rinogona kurasikirwa nerevo yaro yechinyakare.
Alfred W. McCoy, a TomDispatch dzose, ndiye purofesa weHarrington wenhoroondo paYunivhesiti yeWisconsin-Madison. Ndiye munyori we Iyo Politics yeHeroin: CIA Kupindirana muGlobal Drug Trade, iro razvino bhuku rekare rinoongorora kubatanidzwa kwezvinodhaka zvisiri pamutemo uye mashandiro epachivande kwemakore makumi mashanu, uye ichangobva kuburitswa. Mune Mimvuri yeAmerican Century: Kukura uye Kudzikira kweUS Global Power (Dispatch Books).
Chinyorwa ichi chakatanga kuoneka paTomDispatch.com, weblog yeNational Institute, iyo inopa kuyerera kwakadzikama kwemamwe masosi, nhau, uye maonero kubva kuna Tom Engelhardt, mupepeti wenguva refu mukutsikisa, co-muvambi weAmerican Empire Project, munyori we Kupera Kwekukunda Tsika, seyenoveli, Mazuva Ekupedzisira Ekudhinda. Bhuku rake razvino ndereRudzi Rusina Kugadzirwa Nehondo (Haymarket Books).
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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