Kwakabva: Foreign Policy in Focus
Chikunguru 1, 2021 inocherekedza makore zana eChinese Community Party, imwe yemasangano akakosha enguva yedu. Ndichifunga nezvezvinoreva zana iri, chinhu chekutanga chakapinda mumusoro mangu ndechekuti zvazvino zvinoshandura kukosha kwekare.
Pamberi pa1991, apo nyika yeSoviet yakaenda pfft, ndingadai ndakabheja, pasi, kuti chiitiko chinokosha zvikurusa chezana ramakore rechi20 chakanga chiri Kumukira kweRussia kwa1917.
Zvino, nekuda kwenhoroondo yekusashivirira kwakashata kwekuedza kwakakundikana, Shanduko yeChinese yabuda sechiitiko chakanyanya kukosha chezana ramakore rapfuura, uye mhedzisiro yaro inokatyamadza - kusimuka kweChina sepakati pekuunganidza kwepasi rose - inodaidzira kuti ive yakanyanya kukosha. budiriro yezana rino zvakare.
Kubva kuRusununguko rweNyika kuenda kuCultural Revolution
Muna 1949, China yakakwanisa kuisa shure kwayo zana refu renyadzi rakatanga nekukundwa kwayo muhondo yekutanga yeOpium kubva muna 1839 kusvika muna 1842, izvo zvakakonzera kuendeswa kweHong Kong kuBritish Empire.
Mumakumi emakore akatevera, humambo hweChina hwakaputsika, nyika yakanyura mumatambudziko akadzika magariro uye pamweya, uye yakapinda muhondo yevagari vemo pakati pehurumende ine huwori uye isina kusimba yenyika uye bato rechimurenga remakomunisti rinotungamirwa naMao Zedong.
Dzimwe nyika dzingadai dzakaona kubatanidzwa kwepashure-revolutionary mushure me1949, asi kwete China. Mupanduki asina kugadzikana, Mao akasundira nyika munjodzi "Great Leap Forward" kubva 1958 kusvika 1962 - uyezve, mushure mekumbomira kwenguva pfupi, mu "Cultural Revolution" yemakore gumi, iyo yakadana vechidiki kuti vazivise hondo kune vakuru vavo uye. zvinhu zvose zvekare uye zvechinyakare. Mao akatosundidzira pwere kuโbhomba muzinda,โ ndiko kuti, Bato reCommunist, nepo Peopleโs Liberation Army yakabata mhete umo hondo yakatanga.
Pakazosvika ma1970, China yakanga yapera simba. Kana kuti pamwe nzira iri nani yekuisa nayo ndeyekuti Mao akange anetesa China.
Icho chinonzi Chishamiso cheAsia chaiitika kumiganhu yekumabvazuva kweChina - muJapan, Korea, neTaiwan - asi, saRoderick MacFarquhar naMichael Schoenhals. akazvitsanangura muna 2009, "China pachayo ikozvino yarara-yagora, panguva ino neruoko rwayo, kwete nekuda kwekupinda nechisimba kune dzimwe nyika kana hondo yevagari vemo."
Kuna Deng Xiaoping nevamwe vakapona "kubhomba kwemahofisi makuru" kwaMao, meseji yaive yakajeka, sezvakanyorwa naMacFarquhar muna 2010:
"Vaifanira kutanga mutemo wekukurumidza kukura kwehupfumi kuti vatsigire nguva yakarasika uye kudzoreredza kutonga kweCCP. Vaifanira kusiya utopianism yeMaoist vachida kuvaka nyika yakasimba uye yakabudirira yavakanga varota pavakapinda muCCP yakanga ichangotanga muma1920. Zvikasadaro CCP pachayo inogona kusagara. Saka 'kudzidzira,' kwete pfungwa - kwete Marxism-Leninism, kwete Mao Zedong Kufunga - yakava 'yega chiyero' chechokwadi. Kana zvikashanda, zvaizoitwa.โโ
Rudzi nekirasi zvakagara zvine kugarisana kusingafadzi muChinese Communism. Yayananiswa mukati mehondo yokusunungura nyika kubva muutongi hwehurumende, kurwisana kwemapoka kwakakunda simba munguva yeChimurenga cheCultural. Asi Mao aenda uye Deng achiraira, simbiso yakachinjika kune mubatanidzwa wenyika mukupera kwema1970, ne "nyika yemazuva ano" yakaziviswa sechinangwa chitsva cheChina.
Ichi chinangwa chemubatanidzwa chekuunza budiriro pamwe chete kuburikidza nekukurumidzira kukura kwehupfumi, zvisinei, chaisafanirwa kuwanikwa kuburikidza nekunyudza munhu mumubatanidzwa wevanhu vakanaka, asi nekumutsa mweya wakavigwa wemakwikwi wakavaparadzanisa.
Kubva kuSocialism kuenda kuCapitalism
Deng haana kuti, โKupfuma kune mbiri,โ sezvinowanzodavirwa. Asi zvisinei nekuti angave akataura maonero matsva, zvaive zviri mutsika yaAdam Smith, uyo akataura kuti kunaka kwavose kwaizowanwa nemakwikwi pakati pevanhu.
Paiva, zvisinei, musiyano mumwe, uye wakanga uri mukuru.
Kunyange Smith akataura zvishoma, "murindi wehusiku" angave akanakisa kuti makwikwi abudirire uye awane zvakanaka, Deng neCCP vakati nyika ine simba, yakabata mhete sezvakaitwa nePeople's Liberation Army panguva yeCultural Revolution, yaidiwa hukama hwakanaka hunofanira kuwanikwa munzanga umo makwikwi aizounzawo huori uye munyika yakaramba ichitongwa nevanopambadza nzanga dzekumadokero dzemacapitalist.
Waive mutsauko wakakosha waizoumba ma contours echimurenga chechitatu cheChina kubva pakavambwa Bato reCommunist muna 1921: shanduko inoshamisa yecapitalist yenyika.
Mao's socialist revolution yakabuda kunze, asi akanga agadzira nyika yakaita kuti kubudirira kwekuchinja kwehupfumi. Nekuti neiyo mamiriro, mutsivi wake Deng akashinga kuita dhiabhorosi. Chibvumirano chaive chekuti mukudzorera budiriro yenyika maererano negwara remacapitalist, CCP yaizopa vashandi vemunyika kuti vashandiswe zvakanyanya nemakambani emuUS.
Iyo nyika ine simba, zvakadaro, yaizovimbisa kuti simba re capitalism rakaburitswa nechibvumirano raizorerekera kuChina, pachinzvimbo chemakambani ekunze. Uye iyo nyika, nekuda kwekutanga kwayo shanduko, yaive nesimba zvakanyanya kupfuura nyika dzebudiriro dzeJapan neSouth Korea dzakaburitsa hupfumi hweAsia.
Makore makumi mana zvichienda mberi, Deng nevateveri vake vakawana zviri nani zvekumadokero capitalist dhiyabhorosi. Chokwadi, kwave kune mari, uye kwete isingakoshi. Kusaenzana kwemari muChina kuri kuuya pedyo neiyo yeUnited States. Matambudziko ezvakatipoteredza awanda. Western China yakasiiwa nemahombekombe China. Kurudziro yekuti pave nekuenzana kwevanhurume nevanhukadzi yarasa simba. Kodzero dzeDemocratic dzakaiswa pasi pekugadzikana kwehurumende.
Asi, hapana chinobudirira sekubudirira, sezvo Mikhail Gorbachev ane makore 90 angave achiziva neshungu, zvose asi zvakanganwa iye zvino munyika yake apo Deng akave akajeka mune zvake.
China yave musimboti wekuunganidza mari yepasirese - kana, mumufananidzo wakakurumbira, "locomotive yehupfumi hwenyika" - inoverengera 28 muzana yekukura kwese pasirese mumakore mashanu kubva 2013 kusvika 2018, kanopfuura kaviri chikamu che United States, maererano neInternational Monetary Fund. Mukuita izvi, vanhu vanopfuura mamiriyoni 800 vakabviswa pavarombo, maererano neWorld Bank, kunyange zvazvo mashoko eBeijing okuti โyapedza urombo hwakanyanyaโ akapokana.
Kunyangwe kuratidzira kwatekeshera pasi - uye kunowanzo tenderwa pachinzvimbo chekudzvinyirirwa - uye kuparadzaniswa nevakuru kunoratidzwa zvakanyanya painternet, hapana dambudziko rehurongwa kuCCP.
Kutya kudzvinyirirwa kungave kuri chikonzero pano, asi chinonyanya kukosha chinhu chisiri chenguva dzose. As mumwe western economist akati, "Kwemakore makumi matatu apfuura, zvikepe zvese zvanga zvichikwira, uye vanhu vazhinji vanotarisa zvakanyanya kuzvikepe zvavo kupfuura zvikepe zvakwira kumusoro ... nguva yokuti โvamwe vanhu nemamwe matunhu abvumidzwe kubudirira pamberi pemamwe.โโ
China semuenzaniso?
Mushure mekushanya kuSoviet Union itsva muma1930, mutori wenhau wekuAmerica Lincoln Steffens akanyora zvine mukurumbira, "Ndaona ramangwana uye rinoshanda." Nenzira yakafanana, kubudirira kunoshamisa kweChina kwakakwezva vazhinji vari kunze kweChina.
Mumwe weavo vakanyanya kushamisika ndiColumbia University economics purofesa Jeffrey Sachs. Sachs akaita shanduko yakakwana kubva pamazuva ake ekutanga semutsigiri wemusika wemahara "Washington Consensus" muma1980 nema1990. Muhurukuro nevakuru veUnited Nations munguva pfupi yapfuura, Sachs akadaro kuti "China inoratidza nzira yekuti zvinogoneka sei kuita shanduko dzakadzama dzekugara zvakanaka munguva pfupi."
Sachs, anga ari achipomerwa nevamwe vaaishanda navo ye "channeling Xi Jin Ping," ingori imwe yevakasununguka uye vanofambira mberi vezvehupfumi vekumadokero vasisina tariro yekuti hupfumi hweUS hwakaparadzwa neoliberal marongero akakurudzira deindustrialization, fungidziro yezvemari, uye kusaenzana kunoshamisa. (nechikamu che50 muzana chevanhu vanogona kuwana 12 muzana chete yehupfumi) ine zvakawanda zvakakosha kupa nyika yeMaodzanyemba. China, kune rumwe rutivi, inoonekwa seNyeredzi yekuMaodzanyemba, iyo nyika inokwanisa kupa hutungamiriri hwepasi rose kune zano rinodaidzwa naSachs "budiriro inoenderera."
Asi China haina kutambira Sachs "budiriro inoenderera mberi," uye haina kusimudzira izvo vamwe vezvehupfumi vekumavirira vakazvinyengedza kuti vafunge semhinduro yeChina kune neoliberal Washington Consensus: iyo inodaidzwa kuti Beijing Consensus. Kana zvasvika kune izvo China inofanira kupa pasi rose, Beijing yabuda munzira yayo kutaura kuti haisi kutsanangura muenzaniso kune dzimwe nyika. Chokwadi, zvakaenda kureba kutaura kuti izvo Deng Xiaoping akadana kuti "socialism ine maChinese maitiro" ihurumende inotungamirwa necapitalist system yakasarudzika kuChina uye pamwe isingachinjike.
Zvinodiwa nemugari wenhaka yaDeng, Xi Jin Ping, zvakadaro ndezvekuti China izivikanwe semutungamiri wekudyidzana kwepasi rose muchikamu chazvino che "kubatana," kana kubatanidza kwakazara kuburikidza nemuviri, hupfumi, uye dhijitari zvivakwa zvenzvimbo dzakakura dzepasi.
Pakutanga yaifanirwa kunge iri nzira iyo China yaigona kuderedza kuwandisa kwaipedza purofiti yeindasitiri yayo, iyo yakawanda ballyhooed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) yave mureza weBeijing mukutsvaga kwayo kubatana, ichivavarira kuunza kudzvanywa. maererano nenguva nenzvimbo yeEurasian landmass, Africa, neLatin America kuburikidza nedandemutande remapurojekiti emuviri nedhijitari.
Panyaya yezvipikirwa chaizvo uye zveramangwana zvemari nenzira yerubatsiro rwekusimudzira kana zvimwe zvibvumirano zvekutengesa - kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu kusvika mana emadhora ikozvino kubva pakuzvipira kwekutanga kwaXi kwemadhora miriyoni imwe - maererano nekumwe fungidziro, yakatotemerwa neBeijing kumapurojekiti eBRI. , yakawanda yacho kunyika dzichiri kusimukira.
Chokwadi, BRI inogona kuonekwa sepurojekiti huru yekubatsira kunze kwenyika kuSouth yepasirese iyo inokwikwidza zvikuru nerubatsiro rwenyika mbiri uye rwakasiyana-siyana runobva kuMadokero rwunouya netambo dzakasungirirwa muchimiro che โneoliberalโ uye kodzero dzevanhu.
Boka reVanomwe paMatombo
Kusiyana pakati pe "simba rakapfava" reUnited States neBeijing rakanga richiratidzwa zvizere panguva yemusangano weG7 uchangoburwa muCornwall, England, uye zvakazoitika. Mutungamiri weUS, VaJoe Biden, vakaedza nesimba kudzoreredza mubatanidzwa wekare wekumadokero mushure mekuparadza basa kwaDonald Trump, vachikoka kurwisana pakati pe "western democracy" ne "hutongi hweChina."
Kugomera kwepashure-Trump kwekuzorora kwainzwika, asi rhetoric yeG7 yakavhara chokwadi chakakasharara. Vadyidzani veWashington vaiziva kuti VaBiden vakatarisana nehondo yevagari vemo isina kutaurwa kumba, nevewhite supremacist Republican Party inotungamirwa naVaTrump vachishingairira kumukanganisa. VeEurope vaiziva kuti European Union pachayo yakanga iri mudambudziko chairo, Britain ichisiya. Iyo yakawedzera Japan ye1970s nema1980s ikozvino iJapan diki ye2020s, iyo isati yambonyatso kubva kubva kune ayo anopfuura makore makumi matatu ekuderera kwehupfumi.
Iyo B3W (Better World Partnership) yaiitirwa kurwisa BRI iyo yakaziviswa nefanfare yaingove reactive, uye zvigadziriso zvinowanzoitika zvinowanzoiswa pamwechete nekukasira, pasina kufunga kwakadzama kwekutevera.
Dambudziko guru nderemari. Uye nenyika dzese idzi dziri kutambura nedambudziko remari uye zvikwereti, kunze kwekunge Germany, hurumende dzekumadokero dziripi dzichawana matrillion emadhora kuti aenderane neChina inofungidzirwa kuti inosvika madhora mazana mana emadhora ikozvino uye mune ramangwana muBRI? Washington, kune imwe chete, yakatopa mabhiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu emadhora ayo angangove akatemerwa chirongwa chayo chekubatsira nyika mbiri kuchirongwa chitsva cheUS-yakanangana nepamusoro-soro yeindasitiri yemaindasitiri chirongwa chakapasiswa neSeneti uye chakamirira kupinda muImba yeVamiririri.
Chokwadi ndechekuti, kunyangwe ivo vachizivisa nemuromo B3W, ruzhinji rwenyika dzeG7, kunze kweJapan neUS, dzakasaina sevadyidzani muChina inotungamirwa neAsia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), zvisinei nekuedza kwe Obama manejimendi kuvanyengetedza makore mashoma apfuura.
Hurumende idzi dzine pfungwa dzakadzama dzekuti zvadzinofarira ndepapi panguva imwe chete iyo dzinoziva kuti rhetoric yakachipa, kunyanya rhetoric kuti Washington ifare. Hazvishamisi kuti Beijing yakatadza kuvanza kunyomba kwayo kwese kuratidzwa kusina chinhu payakaratidzira kufuratira kweG7 muCornwall seratidziro ye "zvematongerwo enyika madiki."
Zano reChina
Asi ini ndine zano rekukurumidzira reBeijing.
Imwe chidimbu chezano chine chekuita neiyo yakawanda-yakaitwa BRI. Mapurojekiti eBRI anofanirwa kugadzirwa kuti awedzere kuenderana nemamiriro ekunze uye nemamiriro ekunze, uye aenderane nezvinodiwa nevanhu, pachinzvimbo chekuve izvo zvakanzi naArundhati Roy "mapurojekiti makuru" epamusoro-pasi anoyeuchidza pakati pezana ramakore rechi20.
Zvakare, zvisungo zveChina zvekudzikisa kuburitswa kwegasi regreenhouse zvinofanirwa kunge zvakanyanyisa muhukuru nekumhanya, chimwe chinhu chiri kudiwa kune shasha yepasi rose mukuburitsa gasi regreenhouse.
Beijing inofanirawo kumisa tsika yekuunza zviuru zvevashandi vekuChina kuzoshanda muzvirongwa zvainopa mari muAfrica nekune dzimwe nzvimbo uye kuhaya nekukasika kudzidzisa vamwe vashandi veko vakawanda.
Zvakare, China inofanira kumira kubata zviumbwa zvemugungwa zvakaita seMischief Reef neScarborough Shoal izvo zviri zveExclusive Economic Zone yePhilippine uye kutaura zvinokatyamadza kuti 90 muzana yeSouth China Sea ndeyayo. Mafambiro aya haasi pamutemo uye haakonzereki, kunyangwe achinzwisisika senzira yekudzivirira yekurwisa kutyisidzira chaiko kwemauto kunounzwa neUS 7th Fleet kutonga kweSouth China Sea neWest Philippine Sea. Pane kudaro, inofanirwa kushanda neASEAN yechibvumirano chekubvisa Gungwa kubvisa kutyisidzira kweUS.
Chekupedzisira, Beijing inofanirwa kumisa kumanikidza kwayo tsika kutevedzera maUighurs muXinjiang. Uye nepo Hong Kong neTaiwan vari chikamu cheChina chisingapokane - chokwadi chisingapokane nenharaunda dzepasirese, zvinofanirwa kusimbiswa - inofanirwa kuziva kodzero dzevanhu venzvimbo idzi kuti vataure munzira yavanotongwa. kunyanya kupiwa nyaya dzisingadzivisiki dzekuzivikanwa kwenyika dzakagadzirwa nekuparadzaniswa kwavo kwenguva refu kubva kune imwe nyika nenyika nekolonialism.
Saka China ine matambudziko chaiwo, ese epamba uye mune humwe hukama hwayo nepasi rose South. Asi zvakazara, kusimuka kweBeijing kwave kwakakura kuwedzera kune mazhinji epasi. Yakava simba roupfumi hwenyika yose inosimbisa upfumi hwenyika duku, uye yakawana izvi nesimba shoma, kana iripo, yesimba nechisimba zvakaratidza kusimuka kwemasimba okuMadokero. Izvo zvakapa nyika dzepasirese South mikana yerubatsiro nemari izvo zvakakonzera kuti vasanyanya kutsamira kuUS uye nedzimwe nyika dzekuMadokero.
Asi kunze kweizvi kwave kuri chidzidzo chayo chinonyandura kunyika zhinji kwazvo: kuti nokutsunga, gwinyiro, uye kurongeka, kunobvira kwete bedzi kuputsa utongi hwokumadokero asi kushandisa Madokero senzira yokuwana nayo rumuko rworudzi. Mukuona kwenguva refu, kusimuka kweChina ingori nhanho yezvino yepasi rose yeSouth-150-year-old kurwira kuti decolonization ipedze makore anopfuura mazana mashanu ejoko rekumadokero capitalist hegemony.
Ngozi Iri Mberi?
Asi tarisiro yedu inofanirwa kudzikiswa, uye zvakanyanya nenyaya yekuti masimba ehegemonic seUS anowanzo paakanyanya hutsinye kana achiderera.
IUS inonakidzwa nehukuru hwakakwana pamusoro peChina munzvimbo yekugadzira hondo nekuti China yakasarudza kushandisa yakawanda yezviwanikwa zvayo zvekutanga zvehupfumi uye diplomacy yehupfumi. Iri gaka rekuzamura rinogadzira mamiriro ane njodzi, sezvo Washington ichayedzerwa kuyedza kutsiva kukurumidza kuderera kwehupfumi nemauto matsva - panguva ino kwete kuMiddle East, uko mauto ayo anoramba akatsikirirwa mumatambudziko asingakundike, asi kuona- ร -vis China.
Ichi ndicho chikonzero Gungwa reSouth China riine kusagadzikana. Munharaunda isina mitemo yemutambo kunze kwekushanduka kwesimba, haisi kure mukana wekuti kungobonderana kwechikepe pakati pemauto maviri ari kutamba "huku" pamwe chete, izvo mauto eUS neChinese sezviri pachena anogara achiita. inogona kukwira nyore nyore kuva hondo yenguva dzose.
Isu tiri kunyanya kutyisa mukuverenga kwedu nezve njodzi dzehukuru hweWashington hwakakwana hwemauto?
IUS ingangove yakave nyika ine hondo zvakanyanya pasi pano mumakore ekupedzisira e245, ichigara ichiwedzera uye ichitora nzvimbo kuburikidza nemauto adventures mumakore ayo ekutanga e150, yozoshandisa mauto ehondo kuwana nekuchengetedza hutongi hwemauto kwemakore zana anotevera.
Pave paine nguva shoma apo nyika ino yanga isiri muhondo. Chokwadi, vanhu vekuAmerica vanga vachiramba vachirwa mumakore makumi maviri apfuura muAfghanistan, uye ndizvo kwete chinhu chechokwadi kuti "hondo yehugandanga" yeWashington ine simba ichabvumira Mutungamiri Biden kuti vatevere nekubuda kwavo kwakazara munyika iyoyo munaGunyana wegore rino.
Enzanisa izvi neChina, iyo yakapedzisira kuendesa mauto ehondo kunze kwemiganhu yayo makore makumi mana apfuura - rwendo rwekuyambuka "kuranga Vietnam" rwakazoguma nenjodzi yePeople's Liberation Army iyo Beijing ingada kukanganwa. Chokwadi, kutya kukuru kwevanyanzvi vemauto eChinese ndekwekuti mauto avo haana ruzivo rwekugadzira hondo iyo US inayo, izvo zvingave zvakakosha mukukonana kupi zvako. Sevadzidzi veClausewitz, mukuru wedzidziso yehondo, maKomonisiti echiChinese anoziva kuti pane mukaha mukuru pakati pekugadzirira hondo uye kuita hondo, uye pakupedzisira, kuunganidza kwechiitiko chaicho chehondo kungave kwakasimba.
Mubhuku rake razvino, Graham Allison, dhipatimendi weAmerican Security Studies Institute, anobvunza zvine mutsindo kana China neUS "dzakarongerwa hondo," sekutaura kunoita zita revhoriyamu. Verenga bhuku racho zvakanyanya, uye kunyangwe kupikisa kwaro nguva nenguva kuti rakanyorwa kuti Beijing neWashington vadzivise kupokana, munhu haagone kudzivirira fungidziro yekuti basa iri, rinodiwa kuverenga muWest Point, Annapolis, neColorado Springs, rinonyatso kuitirwa. gadzira nzira dzakasiyana dzemauto ane China.
Izvi hazvishamise avo vane ruzivo rwakareba uye rwakadzama nenhoroondo yebellicose yenzanga yeAmerica kunyangwe isati yatanga kuzivisa rusununguko muna 1776. Uye hazvingashamisi kana maChinese, akadzidziswa neruzivo kuti ave machokwadi chaiwo. kana zvasvika pahukama pakati penyika, ungafunga danho rekutanga kana rekutsamwisa padivi reWashington sezvisingaite chete asi zvinogoneka.
Kune vatungamiri veCCP, iyo yakararama mumakore zana ematambudziko nemakakatanwa, mubvunzo ungangodaro usiri wekuti zvichaitika rini, kupi, uye sei.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta
1 komenda
Kusaziva kwako nhoroondo yezvematongerwo enyika yeUS kunoshamisa. Ndokumbirawo utsvage kuti nderipi bato rezvematongerwo enyika rine chekuita nei, sei, rini, uye kwenguva yakareba sei mumhando dzese dzesarudzo. Nderipi bato rakavhiringa sangano rekodzero dzevanhu? Nderipi bato rakapinza mhuri dzevatema muzvitangwena? Nderipi bato rakakonzera dambudziko rekusungwa? Kana kuti unogona kungopenengura mari. Une makumi mashanu neshanu mukana wekuve wakarurama.