DIMITRI LASCARIS: Uyu ndiye Dimitri Lascaris weNhau Chaiye. Hurricane Harvey yakaunza kunaya kukuru kwemvura munhoroondo yeUnited States mwedzi wapera. Iye zvino Hurricane Irma, chikamu chechamupupuri cheshanu chinova dutu rine simba zvikuru rati ramborekodhwa pamusoro peAtlantic, rakarova zvitsuwa zveCaribbean zvakadai seSt. Martin neSt. Barts, uye ratanga kurova Puerto Rico. Michel Magras, seneta kubva kuSt. Barts, akatsanangura zvakazoitika kuIrma seapocalyptic. Kunyangwe zvichiramba zvisina kujeka kana Irma acharova Florida, mikana yekuti zviitike iri kuwedzera. Chirevo chekufambisa chinosungirwa chakapihwa kuFlorida Keys. Vakuru vanofungidzira kuti Irma anogona kutanga kurova South Florida kutanga kweChishanu manheru.
Zvichakadaro, zviremera zviri kutya mamwe madutu maviri akaitika mumazuva mashoma apfuura. Yokutanga ndiKatia, iri muGulf of Mexico. Yechipiri ndiJose, iri pamusoro peAtlantic kumabvazuva kweIrma.
Madutu mashura ndiwo matsva emazuva ose here? Tinogona kutarisira zvimwe zvezvikara izvi, uye shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ichidziita kuti dziwedzere? Kuti tikurukure izvi, isu tinofara kubatanidzwa zvakare naProfessor Michael Mann. Muzvinafundo Michael Mann anogara achishanya paThe Real news, purofesa ane mukurumbira wekutsvagisa, uye mutungamiriri wePasi Science System Science Center yePenn State University. Ndiye munyori webhuku, The Hockey Stick uye Climate Wars. Bhuku rake richangoburwa, rakanyorwa naTom Toles, rakanzi The Madhouse Effect: Kuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze Kwave Kutyisidzira Nyika Yedu, Kuparadza Zvematongerwo enyika Edu, uye Kutityaira Kupenga. Ndinokutendai zvakare nekubatana nesu, Muzvinafundo Mann.
MICHAEL MANN: Ndatenda. Zvakanaka kuva newe.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Ini ndinoda kutanga ndakurukura newe kuumbwa kwechamupupuri mune zvese. Kutaura zvazviri, madutu anoumba sei uye humbowo hunoratidza here kuti kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kuri kukanganisa kuwanda kwekuumbwa kwedutu?
MICHAEL MANN: Hongu, saka madutu anofambiswa nesimba rinobva mukubuda kwemvura inodziya kwazvo. Ndosaka tichiwana madutu munzvimbo dzinopisa dzepasi pano, uko tembiricha yepasi pegungwa inodziya zvekuburitsa rudzi urwu rwedutu. Dzinotora simba radzo kubva kusimba rinoburitswa kana mvura ichibuda pamusoro pegungwa. Inotakura kupisa uku nayo. Kupisa ikoko kunobatsira kufambisa chamupupuri, kusimbisa chamupupuri, kuwedzera dutu, uye ndiko kunobva hunyoro hwose uhwo hunoshandurwa kuita kunaya kwemvura, dzimwe nguva kuwanda kwemvura zhinji sezvatakaona munyaya yeHurricane Harvey.
Ikozvino shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iri kukanganisa ese aya maitiro. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kuri kupisa makungwa enyika. Makore mashoma apfuura aive makore anodziya zvakanyanya pasi rose uye akakosha kumakungwa. Handifunge kuti zvakangoitikawo kuti panguva iyoyo takaona madutu akasimba pasi rose. Ndiro raive Patricia gore nehafu rapfuura, dutu rePacific, Patricia, dutu rakasimba rePacific rakanyorwa, dutu rakasimba kwazvo pasi rose. Kumaodzanyemba hemisphere kwakaona dutu rakasimba kwazvo zvarakambogadzirwa, Winston, mukati menguva iyoyo. Iye zvino nekuwedzera, isu tine dutu rakasimba kwazvo rakamboitika muAtlantic yakazaruka muIrma.
Chinhu chimwe icho sainzi yakanyatsojeka pairi ndechekuti madutu akasimba kwazvo achasimba nekuda kwekudziya kwepasi. Nekuti makungwa anodziya, zvinoreva kuti kune rakatowanda simba rekuwedzera madutu aya. Tiri kuona iyo kutamba.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Kana ndikanzwisisa nemazvo, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iri kukanganisa ese ari maviri kuwanda kwekuumbwa kwechamupupuri uye kusimba kwemadutu aya zvakare. Ndizvo here?
MICHAEL MANN: Ehe, saka isu tinofanirwa kungwarira. Kana tichitaura nezve frequency, semuenzaniso huwandu hwemadutu ekupisa pasi rose, pane zvakawanda zvinokanganisa huwandu uhu. Iyo El Nino phenomenon inogona kukanganisa mazinga echamupupuri chiitiko uye topical dutu dutu kutenderera pasirese. Panyaya yehuwandu hwemadutu aya, pachine gakava mukati menharaunda yesainzi nezvekuti zvese izvi zvinhu zvichafamba sei.
Asi kana tichitaura nezve kuwanda kweaya madutu makuru anoparadza uye madutu makuru, hongu, isu tinotarisira kuti iwo anowedzera kuwanda. Madutu ane simba zvikuru achawedzera kusimba. Tichaona zvimwe zveKatsi Yechina, Katsi shanu zvikara seIrma.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Iye zvino Southeast Asia yaona imwe yenguva dzakaipisisa dzemafashamo kubva kumamonsoon mumakore. Vanhu zviuru zana nemazana maviri vakafa muIndia, Bangladesh neNepal, izvo zvinodarika makumi matanhatu kana kupfuura kufa kwakakonzerwa munzvimbo yeHouston neDutu reHarvey. Hukama huri pakati pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kusimba kwemamonsoon kwakasiyana here nehukama pakati pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze nemadutu muAtlantic? Kana kuti ndihwo hukama humwe chete hwatiri kutaura nezvahwo?
MICHAEL MANN: Ehe, ndatenda nemubvunzo, mubvunzo wakanaka. Mhinduro, sezvaunonongedza, zvakangofanana. Chinhu chimwe chete chakakonzera kufashamira neHarvey, tembiricha yepasi pegungwa inodziya ... Izvi zvinoreva kuti kune hunyoro hwakawanda mumhepo. Pane hunyoro hwakawanda huchashandurwa kuita rekodhi mvura uye mafashama sezvatakaona mune yeHarvey. Asi panguva imwe cheteyo, nyanza dzenyika dzave dziri pamwero mukuru wokudziya mumakore achangopfuura. Izvi zvinoreva kuti nharaunda yemonsoon yeIndia neBangladesh, makungwa anodziya, mwando wakawanda mumhepo, hunyoro huzhinji huchichinja kuva rekodhi monsoonal mvura.
Zvinosuruvarisa, sezvamunotaura, kunyangwe isu takatarisa zvakanyanya muno muUS pane kukanganisa kwemamiriro ekunze akanyanya kwatiri muno muUS, mune mamwe matunhu akaita seIndia neBangladesh, uye Bangladesh kunyanya, iyo iri kutotambura kubva kukanganisa kwekukwira kwepasi rose kwemvura yegungwa, inzvimbo yakaderera kwazvo ine mamirioni avanhu, yakatokanganiswa nekukwira kwepasi rose kwegungwa. Zvino iwe unowedzera kune aya mafashama rekodhi monsoonal mvura, uye uri kutaura nezvekurasikirwa kwakanyanya kwehupenyu kupfuura zvatakaona muno muUS.
Izvo zvinonongedza kune chimwe chinhu chakakosha, chinova chekuti mune dzimwe nzira kukanganisa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunonyanya kunzwiwa nevanonyanya kutambudzika, nevaya vasina zvivakwa uye zviwanikwa zvekugadzirisa mamiriro ekunze akanyanya. Izvi zvinoreva kuti pane chaiyo mhando yehutsika danho rekuita kudzivirira njodzi yemamiriro ekunze.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Right, munoziva, izvo zviri kuitika kuSoutheast Asia izvozvi harisi mafashama akaipisisa. Ndiyo imwe yenguva dzakaipisisa, asi kwete yakaipisisa. Haisi yekutanga saHarvey. Asi, uri kutarisa nhamba yevakafa inopeta ka20 muHouston, nzvimbo ine vanhu vakawanda mudhorobha repasi rakapfuma. Zviripachena kuti nhamba idzi dzakaonekwa, nhamba dzevakakuvara dzakaonekwa, dziri kuratidza kukanganiswa kwevanhu vari pamberi pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze munyika dzichiri kusimukira.
MICHAEL MANN: Ehe, uye isu tinongotarisira kuti izvo zvichatonyanya. Tinotarisira kuona kunaya kwemvura zhinji munguva inotevera kana tikaenderera mberi negwara ratiri kufamba.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Ikozvino, ini ndoda kutaura newe nezve iyi mutsara "itsva yakajairika." Tiri kuzvinzwa zvichiwedzera kutsanangura madutu emhungu aya nemigumisiro yawo inoparadza. Maererano nemapepa emunharaunda, Harvey ndiyo yechitatu-500-gore chiitiko chakarova nzvimbo yeHouston mumakore matatu apfuura. Zviripachena, manhamba anoita kunge asiri kuwedzera. Zviitiko zvitatu zvemakore 500 mumakore mashanu zvinongoshamisa. Zvakanaka here kutsanangura izvi, zvisinei, sezvitsva zvakajairika?
MICHAEL MANN: Ehe, ndatenda. Zvakanaka, iwe unoziva, chokwadi ndechekuti zvakaipa kupfuura izvozvo. Rudzi rutsva rwemhando yezvinoreva kuti isu tinosvika kune imwe nzvimbo itsva, mune imwe mamiriro matsva emuchadenga ayo isu takaita setinosvika pane imwe seti yemamiriro ezvinhu atinogona kugarisa, yatinogona kuchinjika kwairi. Isu tingofanire kutarisana neichi chitsva. Apo, chaizvoizvo, iyi ndiyo imwe neimwe inoshanduka yekutanga. Hapana chitsva chakajairika. Tinoramba tichiona kuwedzera kudziya uye kuwedzera kwekukanganisa uku kana tikaramba tichienderera mberi nekosi iyi yatiri kuenderera mberi nekupisa mafuta ezvisaririra, kuwedzera mukuwanda kwemagasi egreenhouse, kuri kupisa pasi nekuchinja mamiriro ekunze.
Muchokwadi, chii chaive chiitiko chegore re1,000, chiitiko icho tisati tatanga kudziyisa pasi, hachifanirwe kunge chakaitika netsaona chete kazhinji kamwechete mumakore 1,000. Zvizhinji zvezviitiko zvemafashamo egore 1,000 zvino zvakafanana nezviitiko zvemakore makumi matatu. Isu takavashandura kubva kuchiitiko chisingafanirwe kuitika kakawanda kupfuura kamwe mumakore 30 kuenda kune chiitiko chatinotarisira kuti chiitike ikozvino kamwe chete makumi mashoma emakore. Kana tikaramba tichienderera mberi negwara ratiri, zvino panozosvika pakati pezana rino ramakore, tinogona kushandura zviitiko izvi kuita zviitiko zvepagore. Kureva, chiitiko, kuti tisati tapisa pasi uye kuchinja mamiriro ekunze, hazvifaniri kuitika netsaona chete kakawanda kupfuura kamwe mumakore 1,000, zvino zvichaitika paavhareji kamwe ose makore mashoma.
Unogona kufungidzira. Kana isu tichitarisana nekukasira- [inaudible 00:09:13] kana dutu guru Sandy kana Katrina makore mashoma ega ega, saka isu tave kutanga kupfuura chimwe chinhu chatinogona kuchinjika kwachiri. Tiri kutanga kutaura nezvemamiriro ezvinhu achatimanikidza kutamisa maguta makuru emahombekombe epasi, kutamisa chikamu chiri nani chemabhiriyoni evanhu. Tiri kutaura nezvenyika ine vanhu vakawanda pasi rose uye makwikwi makuru ekuderera kwevhu, mvura nechikafu. Ndiyo nzira yekubika njodzi.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Muzvinafundo Mann, kubvira Harvey akarova, pave paine gakava rakasimba pamusoro pekuti ino ndiyo nguva yekukurukura hukama pakati pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kusimba kwedutu. Sekureva kweReuters, mutauriri weEPA, Liz Bowman, akatanga kuti, "EPA yakatarisana nekuchengetedzwa kweavo vakawirwa neHurricane Harvey uye nekupa rubatsiro rwekupindura zvechimbichimbi, kwete kuedza kuita zvematongerwo enyika njodzi inoenderera mberi." Miss Bowman vakataura chirevo ichi vachipindura mibvunzo pamusoro pemashoko kubva kumasayendisiti emamiriro ekunze anobatanidza kusimba kweHarvey nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Unopindura sei kune zvataurwa naMiss Bowman?
MICHAEL MANN: Ehe, zvakangoipa. Zvinoshoreka chaizvo. Nekuti, hongu, Scott Pruitt, maneja weEPA zvino ari pasi paTrump, anoramba shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. Iye mudiwa wehama dzeKoch. Akaita zvese zvaanogona kuti afambire mberi zvido zvidiki zveindasitiri yemafuta ezvicherwa achibhadharisa zvakatipoteredza, achibhadharira vagari vaanofanirwa kumiririra.
Ralph Nader, rimwe zuva, akataura chaizvo kuti ave kuita mhosva dzisingakanganwike nekuti akanyatsoshora kuvimba neveruzhinji. Izvo zvinoshoreka uye zvakashata kuti utendeuke, kana uchiramba sainzi yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, kana iwe uri kuyedza kukanganisa kuedza kwedu kuti tisiye mafuta efossil kudzivirira kushata kwekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kana iwe wotendeuka uye kupomera masayendisiti ari kungoedza kuratidza njodzi dzatiri kutarisana nadzo. Munovapomera mhosva yekuita zvematongerwo enyika. Zvinongoshora uye zvakaipa. Chokwadi i villainy sekuona kwangu.
Iwe unoziva, chokwadi ndechekuti takaona ichi chinyorwa chikuru zvinosiririsa mubato reConservative. Ini ndinotaura kune izvi dzimwe nguva seSandy Dzidziso, kana kuti dzidziso yeSandy Kunyarara. Nekuti ingave mashura Sandy nekukuvadza kwayakaita kana Sandy Hook, iyo njodzi apo vana vakaurayiwa nepfuti. Pese panoitika njodzi dzakadai, unonzwa vamiriri veindasitiri yemafuta ezvicherwa vachiti, โKwete, hatifanire kutaura nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze izvozvi nekuda kwenjodzi iyi yakawedzera. Kana kuti, "Hatifanirwe kutaura nezvekutonga kwepfuti panguva yekupfura kunotyisa uku."
Kuedza kudzima nhaurirano panguva yakaoma zvikuru nekuti, hongu, ndipo patinotarisana nemhando dzematambudziko, patinosangana nematambudziko, ndipo patinowanzo funga zvakare zvatiri kuita nekufunga nezvazvo, " tiri kuita zvinhu zvakanaka?โ Vanoziva kana vakakwanisa kungovhara hurukuro kwenguva yakakwana kuti chiitiko chipfuure uye vasiye veruzhinji kuziva, ipapo vanogona kuenderera mberi nebhizinesi semazuva ese. Ipapo vanogona kuenderera mberi nehurongwa hwekusaita nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kana kusaita pakuisa mitemo ine musoro yepfuti.
Kunyomba chaikoโฆ Zvakare, ndichashandisa izwi rekuti sinister effort nezvido zvakasarudzika kuyedza kutitadzisa kuita shanduko yatinofanira kuita mune zvakatinakira kuitira kuti varambe vachiwana pundutso munguva pfupi.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Chokwadi, inyaya inoshamisa inotyisa yekutaura panguva yedu kuti kushoropodza uku kuri kuuya kubva kumutauriri weEnvironment Protection Agency.
MICHAEL MANN: Zvinotyisa. Munotaura zvegava rinochengeta nhiyo. NaScott Pruitt arikumhanyisa EPA, tatopfuura gava richirinda nhiyo. Gava rave kurojesa makamuri muimba yehuku kune mamwe makava. Ndiyo nzira yatinofanira kufunga nayo nezve hutongi hwaTrump uye maitiro aScott Pruitt ekuchengetedza nharaunda kana kushomeka kwayo.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Zvakanaka, ndinokutendai nekubatana nesu nhasi, Muzvinafundo Mann. Ndinoda kuongorora newe muchikamu chechipiri chebvunzurudzo yedu yeongororo yazvino yawakanyora, ine zvazvinoreva kubhajeti rekabhoni.
MICHAEL MANN: Thanks, kutarisira.
DIMITRI LASCARIS: Uyu ndiye Dimitri Lascaris weNhau Chaiye.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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