Makore mashanu mushure meGreat Financial Crisis ye2007-09 yatanga hapasati paine chiratidzo chekudzoreredza kuzere kwehupfumi hwenyika. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kushushikana kuri kuwedzera kubva mudambudziko remari uye kudzikira kuenda kunononoka kukura kana kudzimira, zvichiita kuti vamwe vadaidze nguva iripo kuti Great Stagnation.1 Kumira uye dambudziko remari zvino zvave kuonekwa sekudyidzana. Saka Managing Director weIMF Christine Lagarde akazivisa muhurukuro kuChina muna Mbudzi 9, 2011, umo akadana kuti hupfumi hweChinese hudzoreredzwe:
Hupfumi hwenyika yose hwapinda muchikamu chine ngozi uye chisina chokwadi. Mhinduro dzakaipa dzakaipa pakati pehupfumi chaihwo uye chikamu chezvemari chave chakakurumbira. Uye kushaikwa kwemabasa muhupfumi hwepamusoro kunoramba kwakakwira zvisingagamuchiriki. Kana tikasaita, uye tikaita pamwe chete, tinogona kupinda mukuderera kwekusava nechokwadi, kusagadzikana kwemari, uye kuparara kwezvinodiwa pasi rose. Pakupedzisira, tinogona kutarisana nemakore gumi akarasika ekukura kwakaderera uye kushaya mabasa kwakanyanya.2
Kutaura idi, upfumi hushoma huri kusimukira hwave huchidzikamisa muitiro wacho, huri kuramba huchikura nokukurumidzaโzvikurukuru China, zvino yava yechipiri paupfumi hwenyika ichitevera United States. Asi, sekuyambira kwakaita Lagarde vateereri vake vekuChina, "Asia haina kudzivirirwa" mukuderera kwehupfumi, "Asia iri kusimukira iri panjodzi yekuitika mubazi rezvemari." Yambiro yeIMF yakanga yakapinza, izere nekutya kukuru kwekuderera kwehupfumi hweChinese, zvekuti Lagarde mukupera kwaMbudzi akamanikidzwa kuvimbisa bhizinesi repasirese, achizivisa kuti kusamira kwanga kusiri pedyo neChina (musoro wenyaya weBloomberg.com wakati: "IMF Inoona. Upfumi hweChinese Kudzivirira Kumira.")3
Zvakadaro, kushushikana pamusoro peramangwana rehupfumi hweChinese kwapararira. Vashoma vaongorori vehupfumi vane ruzivo vanotenda kuti chimiro chekukura kweChinese chiripo; Chokwadi, vazhinji vanotenda kuti kana China ikasachinja nzira, yakananga kudambudziko rakakura. Stephen Roach, asiri sachigaro weMorgan Stanley Asia, anopokana kuti hupfumi hweChina hunotungamirwa nekutengesa kunze kwenyika huchangobva kuona mbiri dzekunyevera: kutanga kudzikira kunotanga muUnited States zvichitevera Dambudziko Rezvemari, uye zvino matambudziko ari kuramba achienderera mberi muEurope. "Misika miviri mikuru yeChina inotengeswa kunze kwenyika iri mudambudziko rakakura uye haichakwanisi kuverengerwa seyakavimbika, inoenderera mberi yekudiwa kwekunze."4
Kuti udzivise njodzi iri kuuya, kubvumirana kwazvino kwehupfumi kunoratidza kuti hupfumi hweChinese hunofanirwa kudzoreredza migove yayo yekutengeswa kunze kwenyika, kudyara, uye kushandiswa muGDP-kubva kuhupfumi hunovimba zvakanyanya nekudyara uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika, kunoratidzwa ne kushomeka kwakanyanya mukudiwa kwevatengi, uye kuwedzera kuratidza zviratidzo zveimba chaiyo / bubble rezvemari. Asi iyo pfungwa chaiyo yekuenzanisa kwakakosha kwakadaro-pamwero mukuru unodiwa-inomutsa mubvunzo wekupokana kuri pakati peiyo nzira yekuunganidza mihoro yakaderera iyo yasvika pakuratidzira yemazuva ano maChinese capitalism, pamwe nemidzi yayo mune yazvino. urban-rural divide.
Kupa hupenyu kuzvinhu izvi zvisinganzwisisike ndiko kuwedzera kuri kuita kuratidzira kweveruzhinji muChina, iko zvino kunosanganisira mazana ezviuru zvezviitiko zvakawanda pagore-kutyisidzira kumisa kana kutopidigura nzira yese "yekuvandudza musika".5 Kuvimba neChina pane "huwandu hwevanhu" hwevatorwa vanotambira mari shoma mukati mevazhinji vanogadzira kunze kwenyika kunokonzeresa kusawirirana kwakadzama munharaunda iri kuramba ichishomeka. Uye zvine chekuita nekupokana uku kwehupfumi nemagariro - kunosanganisira huwandu hukuru hwevhu hwakatorerwa varimi - kuparara kwezvipenyu muChina, zvichisimbisa kusamira zvakanaka kwenzira iripo yebudiriro.
Uyewo kupokana kweChina hakusi kwemukati. Iyo yakaoma sisitimu yemaketani ekutengesa pasi rose ayo aita kuti China fekitori yepasi rose yaitawo kuti China iwedzere kutsamira pamari yekunze nemisika yekunze, uku ichiita kuti misika iyi ive munjodzi yekuvhiringwa kupi zvako muhupfumi hweChina. Kana dambudziko rakakura reChinese rikaitika raizovhura gomba guru muhurongwa hwecapitalist yose. Sezvakataurwa neNew York Times muna Chivabvu 2011, "Nguva yekuti rudzi rwekukura kweChina ruchapera simba ungangove mubvunzo wakakoshesesa wakatarisana nehupfumi hwenyika."6 Chinonyanya kukosha kupfuura nguva chaiyo, zvisinei, chimiro uye mhedzisiro yekudzikira kwakadaro.
Capitalist Contradictions neChinese Characteristics
Kune vakawanda pfungwa yekuti hupfumi hweChinese hwakazara nekupokana inogona kuuya sechinhu chinoshamisa sezvo hype yekukura kweChinese yakawedzera nekukurumidza kupfuura hupfumi hweChinese pachahwo. Sokubvunza kwakaita Wall Street Journal neshungu muna Chikunguru 2011, โChina ichatora nyika riini chaizvo? Nguva yechokwadi inoratidzika kunge iri kuuya pedyo neminiti. China ichave hupfumi hukuru panosvika 2050, maererano neHSBC. Kwete, yayo 2040, vanodaro vanoongorora kuDeutsche Bank. Edza 2030, World Bank inotiudza. Goldman Sachs anonongedzera kuna 2020 segore rekuverengera, uye IMF yakazivisa masvondo akati wandei apfuura kuti hupfumi hweChina huchapfuura neAmerica muna 2016. " Kwete kuti ipere, munyori wenhoroondo dzeHarvard Niall Ferguson akataura mubhuku rake ra2011, Civilization: The West and the Rest, kuti "kana mitengo iripo ikaramba ichienderera mberi hupfumi hweChina hunogona kudarika hweAmerica muna 2014 maererano nesimba rekutenga mudzimba."
Iyi tarisiro inowanzoonekwa nokusagadzikana munzvimbo dzekare dzesimba renyika. Asi panguva imwecheteyo kutengeserana kutsva kweChina chinhu chikuru chemubairo kune Triad yeUnited States, Europe, neJapan. Kukura kwazvino kwekukura kwakasimudzira basa reChina pasi rose chaive chinhu chakakosha mukudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi hwepasi rose kubva mudambudziko rakakura ra2007-09, uye rinotarisirwa mune ramangwana.
Zviri pachena kuti kune vamwe vanofungidzira, mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma anhasi, kuti China inogona kutakura hupfumi hwenyika kumusana uye kudzivirira nyika dzakabudirira kubva pane zvinoita sechizvarwa chekumira uye kurwisana kwakanyanya kwezvematongerwo enyika pamusoro pezvematongerwo enyika.8 Tariro iri pano pasina mubvunzo ndeye kuti China inogona kupa capitalism nemakumi mashoma emakore ekukura kwakakwana uye kutenga nguva yehurongwa, zvakafanana nezvakaitwa neUS-inotungamirwa nechikwereti uye kuwedzera kwemari mumakore makumi matatu apfuura. Asi "kurongeka kwenyeredzi" kwakadaro kwehupfumi hwenyika hwanhasi hwecapitalist, hwakavakirwa pakuenderera mberi kwekukura kwemeteoric yeChina, hazvigoneke zvakanyanya.
โNgatirege kutsauswa,โ Wall Street Journal inotinyevera kudaro. "Pane mhirizhonga yakawanda iri kuitika pasi pechishamiso cheChina." Kupokana kwainonongedza kunosanganisira kuratidzira kwevanhu vakawanda (kukwira kusvika zviuru mazana maviri nemakumi masere muna 280,000), kudzvanyirira mari, kusaita basa, kushandisa zvisina simba, mabhubhu emari, mitengo yakakwira yezvinhu zvakabikwa, kukwira kwemitengo yezvikafu, kuwedzera mihoro, kuderera kwenguva refu mukuwedzera kwevashandi. , uye kuparadza kukuru kwezvakatipoteredza. Inopedzisa ichiti, "Kana pasina chimwe chinhu, matambudziko makuru akamirira China anopa zvikonzero zvakawanda zvekusahadzika fungidziro yenguva refu yehukuru hwehupfumi hwenyika uye hutongi hwepasirese." Ramangwana rekare reChina saka harina kujeka, zvichikonzera kusagadzikana kwakawedzera pahupfumi hwepasi rose. Sezvatichaona, kwete chete kuti China haigone kubvisa hupfumi hwenyika panguva ino, gakava rinogona kuitwa rekuti inoumba imwechete isina simba chinongedzo checheni yepasi rose.9
Pane mubvunzo nderomwero unoshamisa wekuwedzera kweChinese, kunyanya kana uchienzaniswa nehupfumi hweTriad. Kusiyana kukuru kwekukura pakati peChina neTriad kunogona kuonekwa muChati 1 (pazasi), ichiratidza makore gumi anofamba maavhareji ekukura kweGDP chaiko kweUnited States, European Union, neJapan, kubva 1970 kusvika 2010. hupfumi hwakapfuma hweUnited States, Western Europe, neJapan hwanga huchiwedzera kutadza kumira-zvichikunda izvi muna 1980-2006 chete kuburikidza nekutevedzana kwemari - hupfumi hweChina panguva imwe cheteyo (kutanga munguva yeMao) yakaramba ichikwira. China yakakwanisa kubuda munguva yeGreat Financial Crisis nguva isina kukanganiswa nehuwandu hwemadhiji maviri ekukura, panguva imwe chete iyo iyo The Economist yakadana kuti "nyika yakapfuma yemoribund" yakanga ichishanda kuti iwane chero kukura kwakanaka zvachose.10
Chati 1. Shanduko muGDP Chaiyo, 1970โ2010 (Makore Gumi Anofamba Avhareji yeKuchinja Kubva Gore Rapfuura)
Kwakabva: WDI database yeChina, Japan, neEuropean Union (http://databank.worldbank.org) uye St. Louis Federal Reserve Database (FRED) yekuUnited States (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 /).
Kupa pfungwa yemusiyano unoitwa nekusiyana kwemitengo yekukura inoratidzwa muChati 1 maererano nekukura kukuru, hupfumi huri kukura pamwero wegumi muzana huchapeta kaviri muhukuru makore manomwe ega ega kana zvakadaro, ukuwo hupfumi huchikura ne10 muzana. zvichatora makore makumi matatu nematanhatu kuti uwedzere kaviri muhukuru, uye hupfumi huri kukura ne2 muzana huchatora makore makumi manomwe nemaviri.11
Kudzikira kwehupfumi muhupfumi hwakasimukira, hune hupfumi hwakagara kwenguva refu, hune chekuita nedambudziko rekuwedzera kwekutorwa kwemari kana kuwandisa. Sokutaura kunoita The New York Times, โNyika dzakakura seUnited States neGermany dzine rombo rakanaka kukura inenge 3 muzana pagoreโโzvechokwadi, nhasi tingati rombo rakanaka kukura ne2 muzana. Kukura kweJapan kwakava neavhareji isingasviki 1 muzana mukati menguva ya1992 kusvika muna 2010. Sezvakataurwa naLagarde muhurukuro yaSeptember 2011, maererano nefungidziro yeIMF ichangoburwa, โhupfumi hwepamusoro huchagadzirisa kushomeka kwemari ne1 1/2-2 muzanaโ mwero wekukura mumakore 2011-12. China, mukupesana, yave ichikura pagumi muzana.12
Matambudziko ehupfumi akakura ari kuomeswa nhasi nezvimwe zvinhu zviviri: (1) kuvimba zvakanyanya nezvemari kuti hupfumi hwenyika husimukire, asi nemhedzisiro yekuti mabhavhu emari anozoputika, uye (2) shanduko yakanangana nekambani. kuendesa kunze kwekugadzira kuSouth yepasi rose. Kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika mumakumi emakore achangopfuura kwakakwevera kune vashoma vashoma vari kusimukira venharaunda; kunyangwe mugove weshumba wepurofiti inobva mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose inonangana mukati mecapitalist core, uko zvinotowedzera matambudziko ekukura nekumira muhupfumi hwakapfuma.13
Sezvo dambudziko rezvimiro mukati mepakati pehupfumi hwenyika hwecapitalist rawedzera, tarisiro yakasimudzwa nevamwe kuti China ichashanda kudzikamisa tsika yekumira pasi rose. Nekudaro, kunyangwe tariro iyi yasimudzwa yakakurumidza kuparara-sezvo zvave kuramba zvichionekwa kuti kupokana kuri kuramba kuchiswedera pamuenzaniso weChina wazvino, zvichiunza kutya kuri kuwedzera mukati mebhizinesi repasi rose.
Sezvineiwo, kutya kwanhasi pamusoro pehupfumi hweChinese kunobva muchikamu kubva munzira iyo China yakagadzira nzira yekubuda mukudonha kwepasirese kwakaunzwa neGreat Financial Crisis - chiitiko chaionekwa pakutanga nevamwe sehumbowo hwekuti China "yakazvibvisa" kubva. Kumadokero kuguma uye yaimiririra isingamisikike kukura muchina. Yakatarisana nedambudziko repasi rose uye kuderera kwekutengeserana kwekunze, hurumende yeChina yakaunza hurongwa hwekukurudzira hwemadhora mazana mashanu nemakumi masere nemashanu muna Mbudzi 585, uye yakakurudzira mabhanga ehurumende nechisimba kuti aite zvikwereti zvitsva. Hurumende dzematunhu kunyanya dzakaita zvikwereti zvakakura zvine chekuita nekuwedzera kwemaguta uye fungidziro yezvivakwa. Nekuda kweizvozvo, hupfumi hweChinese hwakawedzerazve pakarepo kubva padambudziko (mukutendeuka kwakaita V). Chiyero chekukura chaive 2008 muzana muhafu yekutanga ya7.1 nekudyara-kwakatungamirwa nehurumende kunofungidzirwa seyakaverengera 2009 muzana yemapoinzi ekukura ikoko.14 Nzira dzekuita izvi kwaive kuwedzera kunoshamisa kwekudyara kwakasimba, kwakashanda kuzadza gaka rakasiiwa nekudonha kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika.
Izvi zvinogona kuonekwa muTebhurari 1, inoratidza mupiro wezana kuGDP yeChina yekushandisa, kudyara, hurumende, uye kutengeserana (net exports). Kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwekudyara kwemari sechikamu cheGDP, iyo yakakwira 7 muzana pakati pe2007-10, yakaratidza kuderera kwakanyanya kwechikamu chezvese kutengeserana uye kushandiswa panguva imwe chete, iyo yakadonha 5 uye 2 muzana mapoinzi, zvichiteerana. Zvichakadaro, mugove wemari yehurumende muGDP yakaramba yakasimba. Investment chete ikozvino inoita 46 muzana yeGDP, ukuwo kudyara pamwe nekutengeserana zvakaenzana ne52 muzana.
Table 1. Percent Contribution to China's GDP, 2002โ2010
A |
B |
C |
D |
B + D |
|
Consumption |
inivhesitimendi |
hurumende |
Trade |
inivhesitimendi |
|
2002 |
44.0 |
36.2 |
15.6 |
4.2 |
40.4 |
2003 |
42.2 |
39.1 |
14.7 |
4.0 |
43.1 |
2004 |
40.6 |
40.5 |
13.9 |
5.1 |
45.6 |
2005 |
38.8 |
39.7 |
14.1 |
7.4 |
47.1 |
2006 |
36.9 |
39.6 |
13.7 |
9.7 |
49.3 |
2007 |
36.0 |
39.1 |
13.5 |
11.4 |
50.5 |
2008 |
35.1 |
40.7 |
13.3 |
10.9 |
51.6 |
2009 |
35.0 |
45.2 |
12.8 |
7.0 |
52.2 |
2010 |
33.8 |
46.2 |
13.6 |
6.4 |
52.6 |
Kwakabva: Pettis, "Matengo Akaderera eImba, Yakakwira Savings?" http://mpettis.com, Gumiguru 16, 2011;China Statistical Yearbook.
Sekutsanangura kwakaita Michael Pettis, purofesa paPeking University's Guanghua School of Management uye nyanzvi mumisika yemari yeChinese, kudonha kwakanyanya kwekutengesa kwakawedzera mudambudziko kunogona "kumanikidza kukura kweGDP kusvika zero." Nekudaro, "kuwedzera kwakamwe kamwe uye kwechisimba kwekudyara" kwakashanda se "kuenzana kuchengetedza mwero wekukura wakakwira." Hongu kuseri kwekukwira kunoshamisa kwechikamu chekudyara cheGDP, chichikwira nezvikamu gumi kubva muzana mumakore 10-2002, zvakakonzera kudzikira kunoshamisa kwemugove wekushandisa, uyo wakadzikira gumi mapoinzi panguva imwe cheteyo, kubva pamakumi mana nemana kusvika pamakumi matatu nemana. muzana, chikamu chidiki pane chero chehupfumi hukuru.15
Nekushandisa mari yekudyara kuri kumhanya kusvika pamakumi mashanu muzana panguva ino hupfumi hweChinese hwakatarisana newi
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