Kukanganisa kwedambudziko remari iro rakatanga muna 2008 kwakawedzera nhaurirano maererano nekubudirira kwecapitalism. Zvisineyi, kuparara kwehurongwa hwemari hwepasi rose hakuna kuunza kuvandudzwa kwehurongwa asi kuti kutonga kwedambudziko kwarebesa mamiriro ezvinhu aripo pasina kupa mhinduro. Kubuda kwenhema uku kwaendesa mutoro wechikwereti wemabhanga nemakambani kune ruzhinji rwevanhu, zvichiparadza kusavimbika kwenharaunda dzaifunga kuti dzasvika padanho rehupfumi risingadzokerike uye kufumura chikamu chakanaka chehuwandu kune chokwadi chemazuva ese chinotarisana nevanhu. yedzimwe nyika.
Dambudziko riri kukanganisa mamiriro ekunze epasi redu rakaburitsawo hurongwa hwakafanana hwekutonga hunopa zvemukati kwete mhinduro. Hutongi hwepasi rose hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, hunotyisidzira kutora nzvimbo yeKyoto Protocol yatove isina simba, inobva pakugadzwa kwezvipo zvekuzvidira zvegreenhouse gases (GHG) uye kushandiswa kwemaitiro emusika kusimudzira shanduko yezvimiro. Utongi uhwu hwakavakirwa padanho rekuita zvishoma nezvishoma kune dambudziko risina tsigiro muchokwadi.
II
Yakawandisa data yatovepo maererano nehukuru uye nekukurumidza kwekuchinja kwakashata kwemamiriro ekunze nekuda kwekuita kwevanhu, zvekuti zvinova zvakaoma kutevera ruzivo rwakakodzera. Pane zviratidzo zvakawanda, uye hapana kuramba zvakasimba, kuti kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze kuri kukurumidza, kwete chete nokuti zvikonzero zvayo zvakananga zviri kuwedzera, asiwo nokuti kunzwisiswa kwemamiriro ekunze kune izvi zvinhu kuri kuwedzerawo.
Imwe yemishumo ichangoburwa yePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), yakagadzirwa kuWorld Bank, inofungidzira kuti kana huwandu huripo hwekubuda kwegasi regreenhouse hukaramba huchienderera mberi, zvinokonzeresa kudziya kusvika ku4ยบ C. zana rinouya, inodokupeta nekaviri mari inogamuchirwa zviri pamutemo senzvimbo ine ngozi (1). Dzimwe nyanzvi dzezvemamiriro ekunze dzinozivikanwa dzinotivimbisa kuti kunyangwe kukwira kwekudziya kwe1ยบ C. kunogona kuunza nyonganiso inogona kunetsa kukunda (2). Zvinoenderana nefungidziro idzi, kukanganiswa kwemamiriro ekunze kunogadzirwa ne "bhizinesi semazuva ese" nzira inoisa chikafu nemvura masisitimu ekupa, ecosystem uye hutano hwevanhu panjodzi isati yamboitika. Asi nepo chokwadi chedu pamusoro pezvinokonzeresa uye ukuru hwekudziya kwepasi kuri kukura, ruzivo rwedu nezvemhedzisiro yarwo runotambudzwa nekusaziva, semuenzaniso nezve mwero uye kutevedzana uko izvi zvinokonzeresa zvinogona kuzvipa. Kunyanya, pane kusava nechokwadi kukuru pamusoro pemhinduro dzemhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Pano tinofanira kuda kunongedza zvitatu chete izvi zvinogona kuitika.
1) Kweanopfuura makore gumi, kunyungudika muArctic kunosvika padanho idzva gore rega rega (3). Kuderedzwa kweArctic ice cap inzira yakakosha yemhinduro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze: sezvo ice cap iri diki, kuderera kwezuva kunoratidzwa munzvimbo uye simba rakawanda rinotorwa nenyika, iyo inoburitsa kunyungudika kukuru. Kunyunguduka kunowedzera kunzwisiswa kwemamiriro ekunze kune kuwandirwa kwemagasi egreenhouse (pamwe nekunyunguduka kwakawanda, huwandu hudiki hwemagasi egreenhouse hunokanganisa zvakanyanya mamiriro ekunze) (4).
2) Panguva imwecheteyo, Rwizi rweAmazon rwakasvika pamwero wakaderera mumakore makumi mana nemanomwe muna 47, mukusanaya kwemvura kwakaipisisa kwezana ramakore. Zvakatoipisisa, kusanaya kwemvura kwechipiri kwakaipisisa kwakarova masango eAmazon makore mashanu apfuura. Zviitiko zviviri izvi zvinoratidza imwe nzira yakasimba yemhinduro yemamiriro ekunze. Mugore rakajairika, sango reAmazon rinotora chimwe chinhu chakaita bhiriyoni 2010 matani e CO1.5. Asi iyo biomass yakabviswa nekusanaya kwemvura muna 2 yakave nekabhoni ye2010 bhiriyoni matani, uye inogona kusvika 2.2 bhiriyoni mumakore anotevera sezvo zvinomera zvakafa zvinoora (5).
Izvi zvinoreva kuti pamusoro pekuparadzwa kweimwe yenzvimbo dzakapfuma kwazvo dzepasi, kudziya kwepasi kunogona kudzoreredza "carbon sink" yemasango anogara achinaya mvura, achiashandura kuita mambure eGHG.
3) Mhedzisiro yechitatu inogona kuputirwa nekusunungurwa kwechando methane kubva pachikuva cheSiberian arctic region, inosunungurwa apo permafrost inonyunguduka (6). Matunhu aya anochengetedza mamwe matura makuru ekabhoni epasi ari muchimiro chemethane hydrates, chinenge matani matiririyoni 1.6, zvakapetwa kaviri kuwanda kwekabhoni mumhepo (7). Aya ndiwo chaiwo matunhu aratidza kukurumidza kwemazinga ekudziya. Chikamu chiduku chemethane iyi yakaomeswa nechando, icho chiri kutobudiswa muSiberian arctic, chinogona kuita kuti kudziya kwekunze kungoerekana kwaitika (8). Vakuru veRussia vakatofungidzira kuti Siberian permafrost inogona kuderera pakati pe15 ne30% mugore ra2050 (9).
Kuunganidzwa kwemhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kudyidzana kwayo kunogona kuburitsa mhedzisiro isingatarisirwe pamwero usingazivikanwe uye kukurumidza mitengo. Mazhinji eaya maitiro emhinduro, pamwe nechimiro chehukama huripo pakati pemamiriro ekunze akasiyana-siyana, haasati azivikanwa ane chokwadi. Izvi zvinoita kuti zvitadze kuziva kuti ndezvipi zveizvi zvingasanganisira kukanganisa kusingadzoreki. Sezvo iyo PIK inoziva, iyo yakazara spectrum yekukuvara kwaizoitika munyika inodziya 4ยบ haisati yaongororwa. Zvidzidzo zvakajairwa pamusoro pemhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze zvakabva pakuverenga pane zvakasarudzika mhedzisiro muzvikamu zvakasiyana zvehupfumi, matunhu akasiyana uye akasiyana ecosystems. Asi hapana zvidzidzo pamusoro pekuunganidza uye zvinogona kuitika ketani maitiro ezvigumisiro pachiyero chepasi rose. Saka hapana vimbiso yekuti kuchinjika kune nyika inodziya 4ยบ inogoneka.
III
Iyo parsimony (kwete kutaura kutsoropodza) yenhaurirano dzepasirese nezve hutongi hwemamiriro ekunze epasi rose inopindura muchikamu kune gaka rinosiririsa riri pakati pehumbowo hwesainzi uye kugona kwemadhipatimendi ekusvika zvibvumirano (10). Asi zvinofanirwawo kucherechedzwa kuti imwe mhando yemafungiro ehupfumi ayo ari kutonga nhasi anonyora nhaurirano yezvematongerwo enyika uye anogadza chiono chedambudziko remamiriro ekunze sechimwe chinhu chinogona kudzorwa nediki, zvishoma nezvishoma shanduko. Iyi nzira yedambudziko yakagadzirisa mitemo yekukurukurirana kwenyika dzakawanda, kusanganisira nzvimbo dzemarudzi ane urombo, zvichienderana nemutemo wekuderedza mari.
Kunyange zvazvo nhaurirano pamusoro pesayenzi yekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze yakabatanidza kuwedzera kana kuderera kwakasimba kwekushanda kwekubatana uye kuongorora kunobva pauchapupu uye dzidziso, nzira yekushandura dambudziko munharaunda yezvigadziriswa yakawira mumusasa wehupfumi hwehupfumi. Maonero eiyi "kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze ehupfumi" anonyanya kuve akavakirwa pane yakaganhurwa yakanyanya kudhura-yebhenefiti modhi, uye pafungidziro yakarongeka yekuti dambudziko rega rega rezvisikwa rinogona kudzikiswa kuita mutengo unogona kuiswa mukati (mumisika iyo, zvakare. tenda, shanda pasina matambudziko).
Dambudziko rekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kubva pakuona uku rakaderedzwa kusvika pakutsvaga nzira yakanakisisa yekuderedza kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Mamwe emhando dzakanyanya kupesvedzera zvichienderana nenzira iyi akawana mhedzisiro inokatyamadza, semuenzaniso kuti mhedzisiro yekudziya kwekutanga inonaka (11), kana kuti iyo yemagariro mitengo yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, mukati menguva, yakaderera (pamwe chete. kurongeka kwemadhora mashanu nemadhora makumi mashanu patani yeCO5) (50). Mhedzisiro yeiyi nzira ndeyekuti dambudziko rinogona kugadziriswa nekukurudzira kudiki kwazvo, kunoitwa muhurongwa hwehupfumi kuburikidza nediki dosi nekufamba kwenguva. Tichifunga kuti kushandiswa kweizvi zvinokurudzira nenzira yemutero wekabhoni kunogona kuunza kukanganisa kwemusika, nzira yakanakisa ndeyekugadzira hurongwa hwekutengesa kodzero dzekuburitsa iyo inosanganisira mutengo wekukuvadza kunogona kuitika mukuverenga kwevose vamiririri vehupfumi.
Maonero aya anotambudzwa nekusaenderana uye zvinhu zvisina musoro. Haikwanise kuona hukama hwehurongwa pakati pezvikamu zvedambudziko. Yakavakirwa padzidziso yezvehupfumi iyo kwenguva yakati yawira mukuora sechirongwa chesainzi. Nechekare dambudziko rezvemari rakapwanya nhema yeruoko rusingaoneki uye misika isina kurongeka. Nekuda kwekushaikwa kwenzvimbo tinoona pano kusawirirana kuviri chete, kwakafumurwa nenzira chaiyo nenyanzvi yezvehupfumi Frank Akerman mune akati wandei mabasa (13). Chekutanga ndechekuti mibairo yemamodheru, pazvimiro zvavo, inoshanduka zvakanyanya kana shanduko diki mumaparamita dzichiitwa, senge semuenzaniso, mutengo wekuderedzwa unoshandiswa. Uchishandisa mwero wakakwira wekuderedzwa, zvidzidzo izvi zvinoderedza kukosha kwekukuvadza kunogona kuitika mune ramangwana. Pane kupokana kwakawanda kwekushandisa diki reti yekuderedzwa, senge iyo inoshandiswa mune yakakurumbira Stern Report. Pfungwa yacho ndeyokuti chirevo chekusarudza chiyero chekuderedzwa chine chirevo chezvematongerwo enyika uye chetsika maererano nehutano hwemagariro uye hwemagariro evanhu, uye izvi hazvigone kuderedzwa kune dambudziko rehutano.
Chinhu chechipiri ndechekuti kurapwa kwekusavimbika kweiyo orthodox mutengo-kubatsirika nzira haina kukwana zvachose, sezvo isingasanganisire kutariswa kwenjodzi kubva kune njodzi zviitiko. Akerman anoratidza kuti maitiro aWeizman akanyanya kukwana (14). Weizman anoratidza kuti mumamiriro ezvinhu umo kune ngozi inogona kusingagumi, iyo ine ruzivo rushoma, kukosha kunotarisirwa kuderedzwa kwengozi kusingagumi. Nemamwe mashoko, kana paine mukana usingazivikanwi wokuti chiitiko chinotyisa chingaitika, chenjedzo ipi neipi pachiitiko ichi inokosha zvikuru. Rudzi urwu rwengozi, sezvatakataura muchikamu chiri pamusoro apa, rinoratidza dambudziko rekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pamusana pezivo yatatova nayo. Nekuda kweizvozvo, sarudzo yezano rekudzikisa mutengo inongokanganisa uye inofanirwa kutsiviwa nehurongwa hwekudzivirira iyo yakaipisisa mamiriro.
IV
Hukuru hwemaonero echinyakare muhupfumi hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze hunoenderana nezvimwe zvimiro zvisingaite zvinotaridza nzira yazvino yenzanga dzine kuburitsa kabhoni kwakanyanya. Kune rimwe divi, iyo tekinoroji matrix inoshandiswa pakushandiswa kwemafuta emafuta akaiswa zvakanyanya muhurongwa hwehupfumi. Shanduko yesimba kubva kumafuta efossil kuenda kune imwe techno-economic matrix (zvichida zvichibva pasimba rezuva uye shanduko yaro yekukurumidza, semhepo) inoganhurirwa zvakanyanya nekuda kwehunyanzvi inertia yegadziriro iripo uye saizi yezvido zvehupfumi zvinobatanidzwa. . Nzira inonzwisisika yekufungidzira izvi inertias ndiko kuziva kuti chimwe chinhu chakaita se80% yezvazvino zvakachengetwa zvefossil zvinofanirwa kuramba zviri muvhu kana tichida kudzivirira kudonha kwemamiriro ekunze (15). Nyika uye makambani atora kutonga kweaya matura ari chikamu che "assets" yavo. Kubviswa kwemhosva yefossil simba kunosanganisira kumisa nzira itsva dzekugova nekukosheswa kwezviwanikwa.
Kugadzirisa dambudziko rekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunoda kugadziridzwa kwakakosha kwechiyero chemauto ezvematongerwo enyika epasi rose kuitira kuti tibvise kurerekera kune chekuita nezvedambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Hurukuro inotonga pamusoro pemaitiro ekukosheswa kwemitengo yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze inopa tsigiro yakakosha yekuve pamutemo kweiyo mamiriro, sezvakaita mukutonga kwedambudziko remari. Kuita debunk hurukuro iyi chikamu chebasa mukugadzirwa kwedzimwe nzira.
- Francisco Aguayo inyanzvi munyaya dzehupfumi uye PhD Fellow paMaastricht Economic Research and Training Institute on Technology (UNU-MERIT).
* Shanduro yeSpanish yeichi chinyorwa chikamu chemagazini Amรฉrica Latina en Movimiento No. 483 (March 2013), yakanzi "La crisis compleja" (dambudziko rakaoma) (http://www.alainet.org/publica/483.phtml)
(Dudziro: Jordan Bishop uye munyori).
Notes:
(1) Deredza kupisa. Nei nyika inodziya ye4 ยฐ C ichifanira kudziviswa. Berlin, 2012. Mushumo wakakwana: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/4-degrees-briefing-for-the-world-bank-the-risks-of-a-future-without-climate-policy.
(2) Hansen, J. nevamwe. (2008), "Kukanganisa kunoitwa nevanhu nemamiriro ekunze: chirongwa cheGISS modelE," muAtmospheric uye Chemistry uye Fizikisi nhamba. 7, p. 2287โ2312.
(3) Dhipatimendi reAtmospheric and Earth Sciences reCity College, New York munguva pfupi yapfuura rakaratidza kuti nzvimbo yakanyunguduka yeArctic inowedzera pedyo ne17,000 square kms gore negore uye kuti izvi zvakaitika kwemakore 30 apfuura (http://greenland.cryocity.org/ ) Izvi zvinotsigira zvakamboitika zveUS National Agency for the Atmosphere and Oceans (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/).
(4) Lenton. T. nevamwe. (2008), "Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system" in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the US, vol. 105, kwete. 6, p. 1786โ1793, pnas. 0705414105. Gwaro repamhepo: www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0705414105.
(5) Lewis, S., P. Brando at al. (2011), The 2010 Amazon Drought, Science, vol. 331, kwete. 6017, p. 554. Pfupiso yepamhepo: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6017/554.abstract.
(6) Ver por ejemplo Schaeffer, K., Zhang, T., et al. (2011), "Huwandu uye nguva yepermafrost kabhoni kuburitswa mukupindura kudziya kwepasi," muTellus, vol. 63, chinyorwa 2, mapeji 165-180; Lawrence, DM naAG Slater (2005), "Chiratidzo chekuparara kwepamusoro-soro pemafrost muzana remakore rechi21, muGeophysical Research Letters, vol. 32.
(7) Tarnocai, C., JG Canadell, EAG Schuur, P. Kuhry, G. Mazhitova, uye S. Zimov (2009), Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 23, GB2023, doi:10.1029/2008GB003327.
(8) Shakhova, N., I. Semiletov, et al., (2010), "Kufefetedza kwakanyanya kumhepo kubva mumatope eSiberian Arctic Shelf," muScience, vol. 327, kwete. 5970, p. 1246-1250, doi: 10.1126/science.1182221.
(9) "Russia inogona kurasikirwa ne30% yepermafrost panosvika 2050: official", AFP, Svondo, 31 Chikunguru 2011.
(10) Zvakatora makore gumi kuti Kyoto Protocol ibve pasi. Zvichakadaro, kana kubviswa kwechisungo chinosungirwa, chakakumikidzwa muProtocol iyi, kwakaitika nekukurumidza, zvichatora makore akati wandei kudzoreredza maitiro aripo ezvibodzwa zvekudzikisira nekuzvidira.
(11) William Nordhaus naJoseph Boyer, Kudziya Nyika: Economic Models yeGlobal Warming (MIT Press, 2000), 84-85.
(12) Richard Tol, โThe Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes,โ Economics (e-journal), Vol. 2, 2008.
(13) Ona semuenzaniso, Ackerman, F. (2009), Tinogona here kubhadhara ramangwana? Hupfumi hwenyika inodziya, ZED Books; Ackerman F. and E. Stanton (2010), The Social cost of carbon, Economics for Equity and the Environment Network, inowanikwa paIndaneti pa. www.e3network.org.
(14) Martin Weitzman, "Pakuenzanisira uye Kududzira Economics yeCatastrophic Climate Change," Ongororo yeEconomics uye Statistics (2009).
(15) Ona Leaton, J. (2012), Unburnable Carbon - Misika yezvemari yenyika inotakura carbon bubble?, Carbon Tracker, www.carbontracker.org.
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