Apo masoja eAl-Shabab emuSomalia akati ndiwo akakonzera mabhomba emusi wa11 Chikunguru akauraya vanhu makumi manomwe nevatanhatu vaiona nhabvu paTV muUganda, vezvenhau vakatsanangura chiitiko ichi sekurwisa kweAl-Qaeda paWorld Cup. Ndiko kumiririra zvisirizvo, hongu, asi imwe inoratidza akawanda ematambudziko nekuona uye kuita kune zviitiko muSomalia kuburikidza nehondo-pa-hugandanga paradigm.
Shabab zvechokwadi ine hukama neal-Qaeda, asi isangano rakazvimirira, uye mabhomba eKampala haana kukurudzirwa neimwe ajenda yepasi rose yejihadist asi nehondo yeShabab yekurwisa kupindira kwemauto ekunze muSomalia. Izvi zvinonyanya kureva Uganda, inova chikamu chakakosha cheAfrican Union (AU) mishoni muSomalia. Basa iroro rinotsigira zvisaririra zvehurumende inoonekwa nevakawanda seine huori, ine makaro, isingashande uye isiri pamutemo. MaShabab anoona kuti hurumende ihurumende yakagadzwa nevekunze; muchokwadi, haitombokodzeri sehutongi, ingori bato rinotonga nhandare yendege uye imba yemutungamiri wenyika - yakatsigirwa nemaoko ekuUganda.
Kuvimbika kwazvino kweShabab muSomalia kwakadzika midzi mukusafarirwa kwakadzama kwekupindira kwedzimwe nyika, kusanganisira kurwisa kweEthiopia kwakatsigirwa neUS muna 2006-09 uye mauto eAU akazotevera kuchengetedza runyararo. Pfuti dzeEthiopiya dzakabhururuka pamusoro peMogadishu, dzichiparadza nharaunda dzevanhu uye dzichidzokera kunhandare yendege, iyo yaichengetwa uye yakachengetedzwa nemauto eAU. Mumeso evaSomalia vazhinji, mauto maviri aya aive chinhu chimwe chete. Chokwadi vanhu vekuSomalia vanonyomba kutaura kweUganda kuti varwi vayo vanochengetedza runyararo. Mauto iwayo anonyatso tora divi rebato riri kutonga muhondo yevagari vemo. Zuva rakatevera mabhomba enhabvu muUganda, AU yakabhomba nharaunda dzevagari vemuMogadishu zvine hutsinye kupfuura zvamazuva ese. Muna Chikunguru wese, vanhu vangangosvika mazana maviri vakaurayiwa muguta guru neAU.
Chinangwa chakaziviswa chekubhomba kweUganda kwaive kutsiva kwezviuru zvevanhu veSomalia vakaurayiwa nemauto eAU. Chimwe chikonzero kwaive kugumbuka kweShabab nekumira kwairi kuita. Kunyange ichikwanisa kudzivirira iyo inonzi hurumende kuti isashande, iyo Shabab haina kusimba zvakakwana kuti itore simba zvachose kana kukurira chinzvimbo cheUganda.
Imhaka yekuti Shabab haina simba muhondo. Hapana pese padhuze nenetiweki yejihadist yakanyanyisa, iyo Shabab inoumbwa nevarwi vakazvipira pamwe nemapoka ematsotsi ane chekuita nekupamba vanhu. Kunyange mauto ayo achishanda munzvimbo dzakawanda kupfuura chero ani zvake, haadzore zvakawanda, pane imwe nguva vachisangana nemutambo wavo mumakwikwi eIslamist mauto. Hutungamiri hweShabab hunoziva zvakare kuti kurwisa zvibodzwa zveSomalia kunogona kudhurira rutsigiro rwakakurumbira. Mamwe madzinza pakati peSomalia munguva pfupi yapfuura akadzinga maShabab munzvimbo yavo; kuvapo kwayo mune vamwe hakufanire kuvhiringwa nekutonga.
Shabab inogona kunge yakakurudzirwa kuti isvike kure kune zvinangwa nekuti yasvika painogumira pakukwanisa kwayo kuwedzera kutonga muSomalia. Ingangove iri kuronga kurwisa muEthiopia, Djibouti neKenya, pamwe sechikamu chekudzorera mukushungurudzwa kwevaSomali vari kunze kwenyika. Asi kunyangwe kugona kwayo kuendesa kunze kurwisa kwayo kune kushoma uye haina kunyatso kurongeka. Muna 2008, panguva yekurwisa kwavo maEthiopia, chimwe chikwata cheShabab hachina kukwanisa kuvimbisa kuchengetedzwa kwevatori venhau vekunze kubva kune mamwe mapato eShabab.
Zvechokwadi Shabab ine vamwe varwi vekunze vari pakati payo, uye vamwe vatungamiri veboka reSomalia vakawana mitsetse yavo vachirwa sevazvipiri muAfghanistan. Dzimwe nhengo dzayo dzinozviona sechikamu cheboka raOsama bin Laden, asi havatore mirairo kubva kwairi. Muchokwadi, chikuru kukurudzira kweShabab kuzivisa kuvimbika kweal-Qaeda kukwezva mari kubva kune vanopa maArabu eAl-Qaeda, nenzira imwechete iyo vavengi vayo veko vanoshandisa hurukuro yekurwisa hugandanga kuwana rutsigiro kubva kuMadokero. Kunyangwe ipapo, maShabab anotarisana nedambudziko mukuti vakwikwidzi vayo vechiIslam muSomalia vanozivikanwa uye vanoremekedzwa mumapoka eSalafist kunze kwenyika.
Nepo mamwe echinzvimbo cheShabab uye faira vangafunga kuti vari kurwira Mwari nekubwinya (kufanana neavhareji US Marine), vatungamiriri vavo vanonyanya pragmatic - uye vakatarisa mudzimba. Hutungamiri hweShabab iSomalia zvachose, inotorwa kubva kumarudzi akati wandei. Chokwadi, kuti vararame munyonganyonga yeSomalia, maShabab aitofanira kuva neunyanzvi mukutora mukana wekunetsana kwedzimba. Chimiro chekutanga chekuzivikanwa pakati pevaSomali idzinza, uye nepo vagadziri vemitemo vekuMadokero vangada kufungidzira kurwisana kweSomalia sekukakavadzana kwevaIslamist vachipesana nevane mwero, chokwadi ihondo yakaoma yekukwikwidzana kwemhuri pakati pevatengesi, vatengesi, varimi nevafudzi vemombe, pamusoro penyaya. kusanganisira kurasikirwa nepfuma, kutya kunyimwa, kuwana mari yerubatsiro, kusaenzana kwevanhu uye masimba ezvematongerwo enyika - chero chinhu kunze kwejihad.
Zvakadaro, Shabab inofanirwa kutsika-tsika, kunyangwe Islam, mune dzimwe nguva, yakatanga kukwikwidza nekuzivikanwa kwemhuri senzira yekuvimba. Dzimwe nguva vatungamiriri vedzinza vanoshivirira kuvepo kweShabab panzvimbo yavo kwete nekuti vachiona zvinangwa zvayo, asi kuratidza kuhurumende kuti havasi kufara nekugoverwa zviri pamutemo kwezviwanikwa kana zvinzvimbo zvezvematongerwo enyika. Chokwadi, kana vatungamiriri vese vedzinza vakashandura Shabab, yaizoderedzwa kuita diki diki jihadist boka risingakwanisi kuisa kuda kwaro pane chero chikamu chenyika.
Chinoshamisa ndechekuti Shabab pakutanga yaive bato revechidiki rehutongi hwenguva pfupi yechiIslam iyo yakavimbisa kukunda kutonga kwevakuru vehondo nemadzinza. Ikozvino, inofanirwa kufamba nemumafactional dynamics. Icho chaicho chiitiko chekuenzanisa. Dzimba dzeSomalia hadzina mutungamiri mumwechete: kurudziro iri mumaoko evakuru vakawanda, vanamuzvinabhizimisi, vatungamiri vemauto nevamwe. Kana pesvedzero yakawandisa ikanamatira kune mumwe ane mukurumbira wedzinza, mhuri inopatsanuka, makwikwi anokura uye nekunyatso kurongeka hurongwa husina kukanganiswa. Uye panguva ino, maShabab anoita seanokwanisa kuvimba chete nemadzinza mashoma kana asina kusimba ane zvichemo.
Izvi zvakanyanya zvemuno zvinhu zvinoita kuti ive dambudziko kuona Somalia segakava riri pakati pemamoderates nemajihadis. Asi, o, veShabab vane mubatsiri mukuru wekune dzimwe nyika. Iyo ingave Eritrea, nyika yakasarudzika yenyika iri mumutambo nekuti muvengi anofa weEthiopia. Uye kune imwe hombe yekunze kunobva mari. Chero rutsigiro rwunopihwa neShabab kubva kuhurumende nemasangano ekunze, vatsigiri vayo vakuru vekumhiri kwemakungwa inhengo dzeSomalia diaspora, vanotumira rutsigiro kwete nekuti Shabab inotevedzera al-Qaeda asi nekuti nhengo dzayo ihama dzavo, shamwari nedzinza.
Rosen ishamwari kuNew York University Center paMutemo uye Chengetedzo uye munyori webhuku riri kuuya Mhedzisiro: Kutevera Kudeurwa Kweropa kweHondo dzeAmerica muNyika yeMuslim.
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