"madhora mazana maviri emadhora anodiwa kumisa kudziya kwepasirese" (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
Buckle up, fireworks ichange ichienda mumavhiki mashoma munzvimbo yepristine inozivikanwa seDubai. Vatungamiriri venyika, masayendisiti ezvemamiriro ekunze, vezvemhoteredzo, uye vagadziri vemafuta ezvicherwa vachapokana pamusoro pemaonero ekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze uye kukanganisa kwekudziya kwepasi, kana kuti kunofanira kunzi kupisa kwepasi? Parizvino, pane zviratidzo zvekunetsana, sekutsanangurwa kwazvino mumusoro wenhau weBBC: "Kukamukana Kwakadzika Mberi KweHurukuro Dzakakosha Dzemamiriro ekunze eUN" d/d Gumiguru 31, 2023.
Musangano we2023 weUnited Nations Climate Change kana Musangano weMapato eUNFCCC, unonyanya kunzi COP28, uchave musangano wechimakumi maviri nesere weUnited Nations Climate Change, wakaitwa kubva muna Mbudzi 28 kusvika Zvita 30.th kuExpo City, Dubai.
Mubvunzo unomuka, ko mhedzisiro yeCOP28 ichabatsira kuponesa pasi? Asi, kune rumwe rutivi, pasi rinoda betsero chaizvoizvo here, kana kuti ibudiriro yavanhu iri muchinetso? Mushure mezvose, pasi rave richipfuura zvakanyanya, iyo Permian-Triassic Extinction makore 250 miriyoni apfuura, uye yakararama. Homo sapiens ingadai isina kuzviita sezvo 95% yehupenyu hwemugungwa hwakatsvairwa uye dzinenge dzese mhuka dzine vertebrate dzakafa. Asi, zvakare zvakare, aive makore 250 miriyoni apfuura.
Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti makore makumi matatu eCOPs akaunza kufambira mberi kushoma padanho rekudzikisa kana kubviswa kwemagasi egreenhouse. Hurumende hadzina kumbobvira dzazvikoshesa zvakakwana. Zvichakadaro, pamusoro penguva imwecheteyo, CO30 yakawedzera ne2% isina kumbobvira yadzika gore kunze kwe60 apo magasi egreenhouse akadonha ne2020% panguva yepasirese COVID yekuvhara chete kuti idzokere kune itsva rekodhi nhanho muna 4.6.
Magasi egreenhouse anga ari munzira isingaperi, kumusoro uye kure, muzera rose rekugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, achibata kupisa kwepasi rose, kuwedzera tembiricha yepasirese, kukanganisa mafambiro ejeti, uye kukanganisa mamiriro ekunze kuita kupenga. Zvese izvi zvinoramba zvichishungurudza nzanga yesainzi kuti iuye nemhinduro kungozi inofungidzirwa yekutsakatika kwevanhu, 6 yepasi.th, asi pamwe kunongova kutsakatika zvishoma kana kuti kusatsakatika. Hapana anonyatsoziva kuti zviitiko zvakadaro zvinozoitika sei. Asi vanhu vanogona kurarama vasina zvipenyu-zvipenyu zvipenyu, semasango anonaya mvura, nzvimbo dzine mvura, Great Barrier Reef, uye nzizi dzine simba, uye: maererano neUN Convention to Combat Desertification, 75% yenyika yeSpain kurwisana nemamiriro ekunze angakonzera gwenga here?
Kutungamira kusvika kuCOP28 vanopfuura makumi manomwe makurukota ezvemamiriro ekunze uye nhumwa dzenyika zana dzanga dzichisangana muAbu Dhabi mukati megore rinopisa zvikuru risati ramborekodhwa pasi rose. Nhume dzinofanira kushamisika kana petrostate inogona kuendesa pasi-carbon globe. Mubvunzo unozvipindura wega. Mutungamiri weCOP70 iri kuuya, Sultan Al Jaber, ane mukurumbira semutauriri anopatsanura, ndiye mukuru weAdnoc, kambani yemafuta yeUAE.
Sekureva kweNhau dzeBBC, Greta "How Dare You" Thunberg ari mukuvhunduka, achibvunza maitiro ese eCOP, anonzwisisika. Mukusiyana zvakanyanya neGreta, VaAl Jaber vanoti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze imbroglio inogona kugadziriswa chete nerubatsiro rweindasitiri yemafuta neziso rekudzikamisa tembiricha kukwira kusvika 1.5 ยฐ C. Ichi chave chiri chinangwa chakataurwa neveruzhinji cheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Sei muenzi weCOP28 angataura chimwe chinhu? Asi zvakadaro, zvinonakidza kuti Al Jaber anoti dambudziko rinogona kugadziriswa chete nerubatsiro rweindasitiri yemafuta.
Zvakatonyanya kunakidza zvakadaro, Al Jaber anobvuma kuti emissions inofanira kutemwa ne43% ne2030 nekuti ndizvo zvinonzi nesainzi zvinofanira kuitwa. Zvakangodaro, Adnoc ine hurongwa hwekuwedzera kugadzirwa kwemafuta nemabharari e600,000 pazuva panguva imwecheteyo. Oiri negasi hofori ichange ichishandisa madhora zana nemakumi mashanu emadhora mukuwedzera kwekugadzirwa. Zvakatonyanya kuvhiringa, Al Jaber anoti: "Hupfumi hwenyika hunoda kuwedzera kugadzirwa sezvo hutsi hunoderera." Chii chiri kushaikwa pano?
Maererano nezvinoitika indavhiyu naKevin Anderson, Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research, maererano neCOP28: โIndasitiri yemafuta ezvicherwa yakabudirira chose mukukanganisa chirongwa cheCOPโฆ โ
Zvichitoomesa zvinhu zvakanyanya, European Union (EU) yakabata chinzvimbo, pamwe nedzimwe nyika dzinoverengeka, dzichiti "hapana kukanganisa kunokwanisika pakucheka kugadzirwa kwemafuta," mukupokana zvakananga neAl Jaber, kunyanya sezvo Adnoc inoronga kuwedzera kwemafuta. 600,000 madhiramu pazuva.
Kumwe kukakavara kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera chibvumirano chemari chakaitwa nenyika dzakabudirira kuitira nyika dzine urombo dzisina kubudirira kuti dzibatsire kubhadhara kukuvadzwa kuri kuitwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, inosvika mabhiriyoni zana emadhora pagore inokweretwa nenyika dzakabudirira, asi mibvunzo mikuru ichiripo pamusoro pekubhadhara chaiko uye kukosha kwayo. zadzisa zvisungo. Uku kwaifanirwa kuve kuhwina kukuru paCOP yekupedzisira asi nhaurirano dzemaitirwo ayo dzakatoparara muhurukuro dzekutanga kuAbu Dhabi.
Nechekare mitsetse yehondo yakatotanga.
Mabhenji eBudiriro paCOP28
Maererano World Zviwanikwa Institute (WRI), COP28 ichava nekutanga-kusingaperi Global Stocktake mushumo, uchapirwa pazvichaitwa, uchitsanangura kufambira mberi kubva paChibvumirano cheParis chinokosha cha2015. Mushumo iwoyo, wakatobudiswa muna September, maererano neWRI, โichokwadi kadhi remushumo rinokuvadza.โ Inofanira kushanda sepurani yezvinofanira kuita, kana kusaita, kumarudzi ari kufambira mberi.
Sekureva kweWRI: โPaCOP28, nyika dzinofanirwa kuendesa hurongwa hwekupindura nekukurumidza kuGlobal Stocktake iyo inoshandura hurongwa hwese hwese paPasi nekudzika nekudzika zvisati zvamboonekwa, ukuwo ichivandudza hupenyu hwevanhu uye kufambisira mberi kwekururamisira kwemamiriro ekunze.
Kubudirira kweCOP28 kunotsamira pakuti musangano wacho ufambire mberi munzvimbo ina dzakakosha:
- Pindura kune yekutanga Global Stocktake
- Shandura masisitimu ePasi anosanganisira simba, chikafu, kushandiswa kwevhu, uye maguta.
- Gadzirai kusimba kuparadzanisa kukanganisa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze.
- Tumira mari yemamiriro ekunze kumarudzi mazhinji ari munjodzi.
Uye zvinonyanya kukosha, zvinotarisirwa kuti basa rakakosha remafuta efossil richatora nzvimbo yepakati paCOP28. Nechekare, nyika dzinoverengeka dzakaita "kubvisa mafuta efossil" chinangwa chikuru chenhaurirano. Izvi zvinogona kuva showtopper.
Zvakare, maererano nedata rakapihwa neInternational Energy Agency (IEA), kuti isvike zero net panosvika 2050, green energy yakaenzana inofanira pamwe chete kuderedza kuburitswa kwesimba ne15 gigatons panosvika 2030. Kufungidzira kabhoni kubatwa uye kuchengetedza (CCS) chikamu che musanganiswa, yaizongotora 1 chete yegumi neshanu gigatons pakupera kwemakore gumi aya. Naizvozvo, uye ichi ndicho chinhu chakakosha: "Zviripachena, kabhoni yekutora uye kuchengetedza tekinoroji haifanirwe kushandiswa sechikonzero chekuwedzera kugadzirwa kwemafuta efossil kana kunonotsa shanduko kuenda kune anogonesa simba masosi semhepo nesolar." (IEA)
Kubata kweCarbon kunofungidzirwa zvakanyanya nenhoroondo refu yekutadza. "CCS 'inyanzvi ine ruzivo rwakakura iyo yakakundikana,' sekureva kwaBruce Robertson, muongorori wemari yemagetsi akadzidza zvirongwa zvepamusoro pasi rose. 'Makambani ari kushandisa mabhiriyoni emadhora pazvidyarwa izvi uye haasi kushanda kumaitiro avo." (Bloomberg, Gumiguru.23, 2023)
Inotarisirwa Fossil Fuel Indasitiri 'Commitments' paCOP28
Maererano neWorld Resources Institute: โZvakakosha kuti uyu musangano wezvemamiriro ekunze weUN urege kuva nzvimbo yezvitsidzo neindasitiri yeoiri negasi inotadza kugadzirisa nyaya huru iri mungozi. PaCOP28, UAE inotarisirwa kuzivisa chisungo kubva kumakambani makuru emafuta negasi anokwana makumi maviri kuderedza kubuda kwemethane uye kusvika pakubuda kwenet-zero panosvika gore ra20 - asi nekuda kwemabasa avo chete, kwete emafuta avanotengesera. Nekusagadzirisa izvo zvinodaidzwa kuti "Scope 2050" kuburitswa kwemafuta anogadzirwa kubva muoiri yavo negasi kutorwa vobva vatengeswa, indasitiri yemafuta negasi iri kuregedza kuburitswa kunokonzeresa. kusvika 95% yekubatsira kwayo kudambudziko remamiriro ekunze. "
Inguva isati yakwana kuita mhedziso, asi munhu anogona kufungidzira, kufungidzira, uye kufungidzira kuti COP28 haisi kuzounza izvo zvinonyatsodiwa kugadzirisa zvakanyanya kudziya kwepasirese. Tichifunga "zvinotarisirwa kuzvipira kwemafuta emafuta," sezvataurwa pamusoro, uye pasina kumwe kubvumidzwa neindasitiri yemafuta emafuta, pamwe maCOP emangwana anofanirwa kugumira pakugadzirisa matanho ekukurumidza kukwira kwemazinga egungwa, senge mavakirwo makuru, akasimba, akachengeteka egungwa uye. mamwe matanho ekupona.
Muchokwadi, izvo zviri kutoitika: Kukwira nekudzika kumahombekombe eUS, maguta akasiyana New York, Charleston, Norfolk, Houston uye San Francisco vakatarisa pasi dambudziko rimwechete: madziro ekongiri akareba anogona kuchengetedza dzimba nemidziyo kubva kumakungwa achikwira nekuda kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, asi zvikumbiro zvacho zvinogona kuhwanda zvekuti vamwe vagari veko vari kuzvirambaโฆ semuenzaniso, muTexas ine mafuta mazhinji. chirongwa che$29bn yakarongwa kuGalveston, Texas. (Kwakabva: Vagari Vepamhenderekedzo yegungwa Vanotya 'Akavanzika' Masvingo eGungwa Achavhara Maonero eMvura, The Guardian, Ndira 2023)
Nokudaro, chokwadi chekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze / kupisa kwepasi kuri kutoita kuti kuvepo kwayo kuzivikanwe nekuparadza maonero emvura kunogara vanhu vanoita zvakanaka. Kungoshamisika kuti makambani ekuvaka madziro egungwa achaita riini maIPO paWall Street?
Senhanganyaya yeCOP28, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti maCOP apfuura akasimbisa kukosha kwekuwana miganhu yekudziya kwepasirese ye1.5ยฐC pre-industrial. Maererano neMIT, iyi ndiyo nzvimbo yeIPCC: โKuti tidzivise kuipa uye migumisiro isingachinjiki yokuchinja kwemamiriro okunze, avhareji yetembiricha yenyika haifaniri kudarika yenguva isati yagadzirwa neindasitiri neinopfuura 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). (Kwakabva: Yakatsanangurwa: The 1.5C Climate Benchmark, MIT Nhau, Nyamavhuvhu 27, 2023)
Kuti uite izvozvo, mamakisi akakosha anofanirwa kusangana na2030 na2050 maererano nekuderedzwa kwehutsi uye kuedza kuderedza. Zvinoenderana neIPCC: Kuburitswa kwegasi regreenhouse kunofanirwa kunge kwakakwira panosvika 2025 uye kuderedzwa ne43% panosvika 2030 kuti kusvike kusapfuura 1.5ยฐC pre-industrial.
Ndeipi mari? Ndapota garai pasiโฆ saizvozvo, โBloomberg NEF, Bloombergโs green-energy research team, inofungidzira mumushumo mutsva svondo rino kuti inogona kuita $196 trillion mukudyara kuti ipedze kuburitsa kabhoni panosvika gore ra2050, sekuvimbisa kwakaita nyika zhinji, kudzivisa nzanga-inoparadza kudziya kwepasi.โ (Source: $200 Trillion Inodiwa Kumisa Kudziya Kwepasi. Ndiyo Kutengeserana, Bloomberg, Chikunguru 5, 2023)
Uye, pamusoro penguva pfupi: "BNEF inoratidzira gore negore kudyara kwegirinhi kunoda kupeta katatu kusvika kumadhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi mapfumbamwe emadhora. panosvika 2030 kana tichizove netarisiro yekurova net zero panosvika 2050. Izvi zvinosanganisira hurumende, mabhizimisi, uye vatengi vanochinjanisa motokari dzakawanda dzepasi rose dzinoshandiswa negasi nedzemagetsi, kuvaka zviteshi zvekuchajisa motokari idzodzo, uye kutsiva mafossil. simba rinofambiswa nemafuta nemhepo, solar, nezvimwe zvinogonekazve, zvine magidhi matsva ekubatanidza ese,โ Ibid.
Nekudaro, mukupokana zvakananga nekuongorora kweBNEF, maererano neshumo nyowani yeUN, yakawanda iyo $ 6.9B yaizogadziriswa uye isingaite, tichifunga kuti zvinoitika chaizvo, izvo zvinopokana, asi zvisinei, heino mafossil anobvisa panosvika 2030: "Zvirongwa. (yemakambani emafuta ezvicherwa) zvaizoita kuti 460% iwedzere kugadzirwa kwemarasha, 83% kuwedzera gasi, uye 29% mamwe mafuta muna 2030 kupfuura zvazvaibvira kupisa kana kukwira kwekushisa kwepasi kuchizochengetwa kune yakabvumiranwa pasi rose 1.5C. Zvirongwa izvi zvaizogadzirawo 69% mamwe mafuta efossil pane anowirirana neriskier 2C chinangwa. " (Kwakabva: 'Kupenga: Petrostates Kuronga Kuwedzera Kukuru kweFossil Fuels, inodaro UN Report, The Guardian, Nov.8, 2023)
Zvichakadaro, njodzi dzekudziya kwakanyanya kwepasi hadzina kumirira kuti UN COPs isarudze chakanakira mamiriro ekurarama kwevanhu. Mamiriro ekunze enyika ari kufamba nokukurumidza, achichinja pamberi pemeso edu. Aingova makore maviri bedzi apfuura apo NPR (National Public Radio) yakati: โNokuganhurira kudziya kwepasi kusvika ku1.5 degrees Celsius, kana kuti 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, panosvika 2100, tariro ndeyokudzivisa kuvhiringidzwa kwakakomba kwemamiriro okunze uko kunogona kuwedzera nzara, kurwisana, uye kusanaya kwemvura pasi roseโ d/d November 8, 2021. Chokwadi???
Zvinhu zvinokurumidza kuchinja!
Maiwe, hazvishamise kuvanhu โvanozivaโ kuti kudziya kwepasi kwave kuda kuvhuvhuta kupfuura zvicherechedzo zvese, pamberi pehurongwa, chokwadi, mukati memakumi emakore mashoma: Bepa richangoburwa raDr. James Hansen (Earth Institute, Columbia University): Maziviro Atinoita Kuti Kudziya Kwepasi Kuri Kuwedzera uye kuti Chinangwa cheChibvumirano cheParis Chakafa, November 10, 2023, inotaura zvakadzama nezveuchapupu hwechokwadi uye inotaura zvakajeka kuti: โMukati memakore asingasviki gumi, tinofanira kutarisira 0.4ร0.25ร4ยฐC = 0.4ยฐC kuwedzera kudziya. Tichifunga nezvekudziya kwepasi rose kwe 0.95C muna 2010, kudziya kwegore ra2030 kunenge kuri 0.95ยฐC + 2ร0.18ยฐC + 0.4ยฐC = 1.71ยฐC. Kudziya kwepasi rose kwe2ยฐC kuchasvikwa mukupera kwa2030s.โ
(Makore makumi matatu namashanu apfuura, Dr. James Hansen, mutungamiriri weNASA's Institute for Space Studies akanyevera kuti: Kudziya Kwepasi Kwakatanga, Nyanzvi Inoudza Senate, New York Times, Chikumi 24, 1988).
Zvichakadaro, aingove makore mashoma apfuura apo nhau dzepamusoro dzakanyevera nezve "tembiricha yepasi rose kusvika 1.5 ยฐ C pre-industrial ne2100." Ndosaka vanhu vachinyanya kusava nehanya nokuparadza kungangoita kudziya kwepasi. Zvinoita sehupenyu kure. Asi, oops, yave pedyo nekona. Kana huri humbowo, mamiriro ekunze anga achiita sebhuru remusango pane steroids. Uye ndizvo zvave paTV nhau dzenguva pfupi yapfuura, pamakondinendi ese. Inyika yose, mafashamo makuru, kusanaya kwemvura kukuru, moto mukuru, madutu makuru.
Zvichatowedzera. Ichi ndicho chikonzero: "Vaongorori vakaona kuti kusaenzana kwesimba rePasi kwakapetwa kaviri mukati memakore gumi nemana kubva muna 14 kusvika 2005." (Kwakabva: Joint NASA, NOAA Chidzidzo Inoona Kusagadzikana Kwesimba Renyika Kwakapetwa Kaviri, NASA, Chikumi 15, 2021) Zvinoenderana nesainzi yemamiriro ekunze: Ichi chiitiko chinokatyamadza, chinoratidza dambudziko rakanyanya kudzika pasi. Inoratidza dambudziko re albedo. Pachiyero ichi, kanganwa 1.5 ยฐ C ne2100; ingovimba uye tinamate kuti tisvike ikoko. (Ona zano rakanaka: SEA: Kutonhodza Pasi Nekuonesa Chiedza cheZuva).
"Muganho we1.5-degree wakafa kupfuura mbambo," Hansen, zvino ari director paEarth Institute paColumbia University, akadaro mukufona nevatori venhau neChina. 'Mumwedzi yakati wandei inotevera, tichakwira zvakanyanya pamusoro pe1.5C [Celsius] paavhareji yemwedzi gumi nemiviri. โฆ Kwemakore gumi asara, avhareji ichange iri 12.โ (Ane mukurumbira Climate Sayenzi Ane Nyowani, Dire Prediction, The Washington Post, Mbudzi 2, 2023)
COP28 ichafanirwa kubvisa chishamiso.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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